Who's to say those games need to be shown any time soon though? If Prime 4 is March and NSMB5 is November, for example, they could easily wait until the September Direct
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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception
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LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
New 2D Mario is not having 2 months of marketing, it's not EPD4 game. It's Mario game.
Okay but why? How much marketing does it need?
You basically just need one trailer: Mario! Go to the right while jumping! Out on November the whateverth! and 10 million casuals will buy after they see that on TV or a bus.
Why do you need a month's long campaign for it?
Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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I dunno. We've had several weird marketing choices this year alone. Metroid Prime Remastered got shadowdropped. Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Future Redeemed came out a few weeks before Zelda with only a week of marketing. Everybody 1-2 Switch got announced on the e-shop without any screenshots or trailers. The February Direct didn't announce a single H2 game. We're in the bizzaro timeline.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
June to October it's not month's long campain, it's actually in line with what they are doing, 4-5 months. The idea of Nintendo going into early August (another earnings) while Furukawa saying: we have something but we don't tell you is really funny. Not to mention that they are not going to Gamescom to show Pikmin 4.
Non of these examples really change much for me. It's clear that Nintendo does not have much faith in Everybody 1-2 Switch due to it's non existing reveal and budget price. Xenoblade DLC was destinated to be released early on due to soundtrack dropping in July, as to why they did it before Zelda is question to ask, maybe due to all eyes being on Zelda post May? But as you said, we are in bizzaro timeline, that's why it would truly be bizarre if they had nothing dated after Pikmin.
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I think the next mainline Mario would be many worlds apart from a Metroid remaster and Xenoblade DLC to be fair; and like I keep saying only revealing the slate up until July is exactly what they did in February 2021, so that part isn’t bizarre (yet; if they don’t have a June presentation THEN we would be entering the bizzaro timeline).
2D Mario can get away with a shorter than usual (relative to other major titles) reveal to release cycle, but I think it still needs one. They’ve done four months a few times; NSMB2 was announced in April 2012 for late July (in Japan) / early August; Mario Maker 2 was announced in February 2019 for late June. Now that I think about it, NSMBUDX also got about that much time from September 2018 to January 2019. June to October or July to November would work this year I think.
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There's no comparison between those releases and the next 2D mainline Mario. Prime is excellent but niche; Future Redeemed is excellent but DLC for a niche release; Everybody 1-2 Switch is apparently so bad Nintendo didn't know if it should release.
The next new 2D Mario is a major tentpole release and something Nintendo could and would bank the holiday season on.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
Also New Super Mario Bros Wii was announced in June 2009 for a November release.
Big pillar games definitely get proper lead up. Last year was Xenoblade 3, Splatoon 3, and Pokemon.
This year it’s Pikmin for sure, then probably 2D Mario in September and either Prime 4 or Donkey Kong November. We should hear what the September and November games are this month.
This year it’s Pikmin for sure, then probably 2D Mario in September and either Prime 4 or Donkey Kong November. We should hear what the September and November games are this month.
switchum
Providing Fami with bad takes a-plenty since 2022!
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Very interesting… thank you! I’ve learned a lot about this topic now haha
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
Some people are so disingenuous…comparing remasters and dlc to a brand new 2D Mario game. Then others asking why can’t a brand new 2D Mario game have a one month marketing.
Why even have a marketing department at this point since it’s so easy. Just announce games and release them the same week.
Why even have a marketing department at this point since it’s so easy. Just announce games and release them the same week.
rickyson33
Koopa
but like....what if the new 2D Mario is a Twitter shadowdrop
what if DIrects are obsolete now and will be replaced with the new Nintendo Super-Directs where all games are shadowdropped and an army of drones goes to peoples homes to ask which ones they want?
what if DIrects are obsolete now and will be replaced with the new Nintendo Super-Directs where all games are shadowdropped and an army of drones goes to peoples homes to ask which ones they want?
Yeah they literally just did that with Metroid Prime though?
I get that some of you have this emotional logic of thinking that since new 2D Mario is big it therefore "deserves" more marketing, but I just don't agree. It's not 2009 anymore, you don't need long amounts of time for people to hear about a game, you just need to get it trending on socials; and Nintendo have been doing a lot of experimenting with different marketing strategies lately.
Everyone knows what NSMB is. "Remember playing Mario on Wii as a kid? Now that four player mayhem is back with your friends online", job done.
Unless, I suppose, are people imagining new 2D Mario as some drastically different, ambitious new project?
SirShorse
Shorserer Supreme
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It's not going to be another New Super Mario Bros game, so yes, it's going to be drastically different.
As for the marketing, this game is supposedly releasing in the very, very competitive holiday season, with highly anticipated releases such as Spider-Man 2 and Starfield. It's basic marketing to let people know what you have going on in that season, and continue to show trailers/tid bits on social media/newsletters in the months leading up to release so you can inform people and influence them on why your game is the best to purchase, over aforementioned games like SM2 and Starfield.
Do we have solid reason to believe it's a new style? Or is it just optimism? Cuz it's reminding me of when people were saying Origami King was going to be a return to form Paper Mario and in the end it was just Sticker Star 3.
If it is the case that this game is NSMB 5, then that's a series with a reputation for being a chill multiplayer game for families, not a hardcore single player campaign, so I'm not really sure how much overlap there is with Starfield and Spiderman. Don't know how many people would be considering one of those and decide in the end to go for Mario instead?
zumaddy
Starman
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No, it really wasn't.
Agree to disagree. It was more Paint Bucket than TTYD. But my actual question is if I'm missing context on fresh 2D Mario leaks, or if people are just optimistic for a change, cus that affects my initial point on how much marketing it needs.
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Every 2D Mario for the last decade or so has basically had a 4 to 6 month lead in from reveal to release, including the titles on Switch. I don't know why you'd take one isolated example of a re-release from a different franchise as a guide to what Nintendo could do with a completely different and far more important (commercially speaking) franchise. It's not a comparison that bears up under any scrutiny.
2D Mario doesn't need to be some amazing refresh to justify a few months of lead-in, even if I wish we do get a new take. It's a flagship franchise and a big deal commercially in a way that a Metroid remaster isn't. And, if we look at the last new Metroid title, it got a 5 month lead-in from reveal to release, too, so I've no idea why Prime Remastered would be the strategy Nintendo repeat. If Nintendo felt everybody knows what NSMB is, why did a NSMB port on Switch get the same length of lead-in as Super Mario Maker 2?
Not a fan of 2d mario, but if they made the game a metroidvania... well that would be different 
He's already punching in smash so its not like nintendo is against violence
He's already punching in smash so its not like nintendo is against violence
My point isn't that Mario is on Metroids level and so will get a Metroid strategy. I think that's where I'm disagreeing here; I think that things have changed enough in the last few years that I don't think what Nintendo did back in the 2010s is necessarily an accurate barometer for what they'll do now, in the very different world of the 2020s. NSMBUDX and SMM2 both got the "old" minimum amount of marketing time in their weight class, my assertion is that the "new" minimum marketing time is less than the old one was.
To be clear, I'm not saying I think Nintendo WILL give New Mario a shorter time; I'm saying that it's reasonable today they COULD. Lucas' original point was this:
Mario is this holiday so it must be announced soon to give it four months; and because it's a big game it must be announced in a direct, therefore a direct must be soon.
I'm trying to argue that the chain of logic is flawed. I'm not trying to express a firm conviction about Mario marketing in the future, just to defend a possibility.
DenkeyKong
banana
And people are afraid to get their hopes crushed if there somehow is no Direct this June. A lot here seems like unreasonable dooming for the sake of not wanting to be disappointed. Then if the Direct gets announced earlier they will be like 'Ha I dont care that I was wrong because now I get a Direct earlier than I expected anyway!'.
Fridaynightcatlady
Rattata
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I need some Pikmin 4 info! This radio silence — almost a month away from release — is making me a bit nervous. I hope it doesn’t get delayed.
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They put out a post on the news feed just yesterday for PAL regions. No new info beyond the mention of the “Rescue Corps” (video is just a 30 second cut of the February Direct trailer; no new footage) though, but it does reaffirm the release date. Zero chance of a delay. Definitely going to get the next major trailer this month, whether it comes from a direct or a YouTube shadow drop within the next few weeks.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
The most annoying part of Direct speculation after pandemic is the Twitter drops talk. It's talked about everytime and it never happens, except from EPD4 since Kawamoto don't have mercy.
Smash Kirby
Bob-omb
That's what Todd Howard wants to do.
wario land should be a priority
When are you counting as "after the pandemic"? Remember when they did the tweet that was like "come back to tomorrow to see Bowser's Fury"? Or when they super recently tweeted to say 'final Zelda trailer tomorrow'? They could EASILY do that for Metroid, just tweet like "be here tomorrow at [time] for the new trailer for Metroid Prime 4'
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
You are comparing apples are oranges, we are talking about new game announcements. 3D World + Bowser's Fury was already announced at that point, same goes for Prime 4.
Origami King and Age of Calamity were new games announced that way. I don't really see why you think that can't happen again
space_dragon
Cunning Commander
Yeah, I definitely feel this.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
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Can we not make a false equivalence between the depths of the pandemic and 2023?
The vast majority of Nintendo's software announcements since then have been in Directs. Pointing at isolated bits of data and going 'they could do this!' might technically be a slim possibility, but it shouldn't be treated as being especially plausible. That's the issue with this line of thinking: it gives equal equivalence to what is in theory possible and to what is, in practise, the more likely scenario and Nintendo's proven preference.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
Pandemic……..
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
The reason why Origami King, Age of Calamity, and presumably Pikmin 3 Deluxe too were Twitter drops reveal is just they couldn't do Direct, the world was upside down.
Even the Clubhouse games was announced in a Mini in March for a June release, because that Mini Direct was planned way in advance. Way before any pandemic was happening.
Even the Clubhouse games was announced in a Mini in March for a June release, because that Mini Direct was planned way in advance. Way before any pandemic was happening.
I don't think it's fair to arbitrarily declare that something is pandemic only and can never possibly happen again. The fact they were willing to do it once makes it more likely they could try it out in future, not less. We aren't talking about Super Mario Face Masks as a Club Nintendo reward or anything obviously contextual, we're talking about something they could easily try again.
Mr Spo, you say we shouldn't suggest Nintendo would deviate from a pattern when it's more likely they'll stick to it? How about this then: Nintendo ONLY have a June direct when it's E3. Everytime E3 is cancelled, there's no June direct. So it's unreasonable suggest that in 2023, a no E3 year, there could be a direct.
RaymondBryce
Octorok
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No one believes that Nintendo thinks that way. But Nintendo does think about having a well balanced release schedule. If they are publishing 8 games in the first 7 months, they are going to have multiple games for the remaining 5 months
I think the issue with this is:
1. Nintendo is not going to go through August, September and October with 0 first party games
2. There will be third party games releasing in September to December that need to be promoted/announced
If they are only having 1 more direct this year instead of 2, they could have the next one in July or early August as well.
Galgavias
Koopa
Sure why not, need to shake my brain out of its foggy, hungover state. Focusing on Nintendo only as who the hell knows with third parties:
July 2023: Mario Kart 8 Wave 5 releases to try and distract from Everbody 1-2-Switch's existence
August 2023: Splatoon 3 DLC launches after we receive a new trailer outlining its content earlier that month
September 2023: Paper Mario TTYD HD releases in a Metroid Prime-esque shadowdrop following a direct.
October 2023: Wildcard prediction - Astral Chain 2 releases in the Bayonetta 3 slot (will be revealed in a tweet/trailer this summer)
November 2023: New DK platformer from EPD is the big Christmas game. There will be something of a DK celebration in the lead up to it - such as DK games on Switch online (DK64 and maybe Diddy Kong Racing) and DK themed content for Mario Kart 8 DLC. Speaking of Mario Kart, this is when wave 6 releases, bringing DLC to an end.
December 2023: F-Zero GX HD launches. Potential shadowdrop following The Game Awards.
Then into 2024:
January - March 2024: Slightly foggier predictions perhaps laced with wishful thinking, but in the Octopath 2 slot we see full remakes of the first two Golden Sun games (fundamentally play the same but with massively updated graphics and voice acting). This is followed by Metroid Prime 4 relasing before financial year end (I was previously confident it would be a Switch 2 launch game, but Nate's comments + indications of a late 2024 launch of Switch 2 made me rethink).
April - May 2024: Things begin to wind down as rumours on Switch 2 begin to swirl. Kid Icarus Uprising HD releases in April, with a Fire Emblem remake launching in May, which becomes the Switch 1's last big game, as it were.
June - August 2024: Switch 2 is revealed in June for a launch in September. The full launch lineup is revealed, as well as news that a new Mario Kart and Pokemon (2025), and Smash Bros and Animal Crossing (2026) are all being made for the system. A quiet period follows as Nintendo builds up to launch. Potentially this is when we see those ports of Wind Waker and Twilight Princess to fill the gap.
September - December 2024: Switch 2 arrives with a 3D Mario as its big launch game. TOTK, Splatoon 3 and Metroid Prime 4 will all receive significant updates with new content to go with graphics and performance boosts. As we approach November the next big game, serving as a graphical showcase for the system, is either a brand new StarFox or something from MonolithSoft.
Edit: Sorry, one final prediction, I'm fairly confident we'll get a Xenoblade Warriors game at some point in the next 18 months as well. Basically a coin flip as to whether this is on Switch 1 or saved for the launch of Switch 2 (could be a good counter game when placed alongside Mario)
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LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
Mate, you know I meant full fat general direct. The kind you yourself have asserted in this thread that we NEED to announce H2 games.
boodream
Paratroopa
You’re comparing the remaster of a 20-year-old game from a series that literally nobody cares about in Japan and that even in the West remains niche with the most famous franchises in the world that has just been adapted to cinema with immense success and that has not experienced new iterations in 2D for more than 10 years. I love Metroid as much as Mario. But not to make a bad pun about the morphing ball, you’re literally counting oranges with apples.
Speaking only of the most recent examples, it seems to me that neither splatoon 3, nor tears of the kingdom, nor even Pikmin 4 are games released in 2010, and I invite you to observe when they were revealed in relation to their release date. They were certainly not revealed by a tweet.
So yes of course if you want we can explain that prime remaster or the thing with the horse are logical and consistent comparisons to talk about how the new 2DMario will be announced.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
You said when there's no E3, then there is no June Direct which did happen last year, even when it was Partner. It was still in fact a Direct. There was no point doing that a General one since they had everything announced for later that year, and I mean everything. Now they have nothing. Seems like we are running in circles yet again. Partner Direct was a Direct no matter what anyone says. Your reasoning that everytime E3 is cancelled, there is no Direct is just wrong.
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Don't twist my words. I said we shouldn't treat what's technically possible the same as what's plausible. And Nintendo still had a Partner Showcase Direct last year.
Sure, maybe. It depends what you think is more important: attending E3 or Nintendo revealing and marketing their games. Nintendo have nothing beyond Pikmin 4 and I think it's much more plausible they stick with the Direct format for game announcements because that is their preferred format; it's not as if they've dropped the brand or stopped using it after 2020. This year, unlike 2020 or 2022, Nintendo actively pulled out of E3, which suggests it never figured into their plans for marketing in 2023 (rumours sprang up last November that Nintendo weren't booking exhibition space like they usually do, and the source was one of the E3 organisers). In 2022 they may well have been caught with their pants down when E3 was cancelled; we don't know.
The other simple point about 2022 is that Nintendo already had half a dozen exclusives slated for the second half of the year, and so didn't need to reveal anything else. This year is more comparable to 2021, when Nintendo's slate up to Skyward Sword HD in July was revealed, and they used a June Direct at E3 to reveal most of the remaining titles for the year.
A lot of us have already laid out multiple reasons why a Direct of some fashion will likely drop in June and also why 2020 announcements were different (pandemic), but even putting all of that aside for a moment to look at announcing a new Mario game in this hypothetical vacuum on Twitter vs a Nintendo Direct, it makes no sense to do that to Mario. Out of nowhere reveals are most effective when they are unexpected and I’m not sure a new 2D Mario game has that exact flavor of pull to lend itself to that even if it reinvents itself especially in a post Mario Maker world. More importantly, if you want your games to be a big deal you have to treat them like a big deal at every step of the way. This can be hard to do when you are someone like Nintendo who has so many things vying for attention. Giving it the proper introduction and lead up is crucial for these things even if sometimes they look boring or unnecessary from the perspective of someone getting something day one no matter what.
If we are being flexible in the sense with a “tune in tomorrow at X time for the reveal of a new Mario game” that’s more distinctly possible and could be effective. Yet that however ignores the potential lure a new unannounced 2D Mario could bring to their inevitable next event. I really think this is the issue with the Twitter Direct / Directs are dead feelings in general in that they regularly don’t consider enough the delicate balance Directs strike of having those big pillar games, the smaller first party games and DLC news, and all of the third party games all mixed together. All of these together really all support and exponentially boost each other. It’s why Directs, even though they range in quality, have a big event feel and set so much of the tone for discussion.
If we are being flexible in the sense with a “tune in tomorrow at X time for the reveal of a new Mario game” that’s more distinctly possible and could be effective. Yet that however ignores the potential lure a new unannounced 2D Mario could bring to their inevitable next event. I really think this is the issue with the Twitter Direct / Directs are dead feelings in general in that they regularly don’t consider enough the delicate balance Directs strike of having those big pillar games, the smaller first party games and DLC news, and all of the third party games all mixed together. All of these together really all support and exponentially boost each other. It’s why Directs, even though they range in quality, have a big event feel and set so much of the tone for discussion.
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Wario Land is more dead then F-Zero.
Let me clarify my thinking here: I believe the new 2D Mario will be a NSMB5 sold on having online multiplayer for the first time. It's advertising campaign will be about familys playing together in the living room and also later separately in different homes. They'll having fun throwing each other down pits and stuff, lots of cuts away to them smiling while playing. My contention is that it plausibly could treated like other multiplayer Mario games, not like other hardcore single player experiences.
If you think it'll be the new prestige project trying to position 2D Mario as the leading brand it was in the NES days by capitalizing off the success of the movie then that's valid, but we're talking about two different hypothetical games.
No, see, this is the contradiction I was trying to illuminate. You say that Nintendo can have a general in June without an E3, meaning they can do something new. But you also say they can't come up with a different, non-direct way to reveal their H2 line up and that it has to be a direct because that's what they always do. So which is it, can or can't Nintendo do new things with their marketing? I'm saying that I think a direct is possible, but I also think no direct is possible.
I absolutely agree that Nintendo need to announce their second half lineup eventually, and I'm excited to see how and where they do it. We're in uncharted territory, and that's what makes the speculation fun. But as a fan of playing video games, I'm really enjoying Zelda, and I'm very confident there'll be more good games eventually. As a fan of speculating about marketing, I'm interested in seeing how Nintendo navigate the changing tides of the industry's schedule in a post pandemic landscape. I think on a lot of points, we broadly agree, no? It's just the one area where we disagree is that I think the approach Nintendo takes to pulling back the curtain might not be a traditional June direct.
Maybe a topic for its own thread, but in writing out my last post it’s wild to think about how much first impressions matter for games vs other mediums. I think it’s a combination of the absurd amount of games out there to choose from, the often higher price of entry, and the way games in general have been marketed for decades now. The amount of yourself you inevitably pour into games is probably the biggest factor.
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