from my spectator scouting spots (which are as reliable as casting bones, so don’t assume I know shit) it’s seemed like January was too soon for a while now — there are a couple ripples I’m anticipating that haven’t happened yet
Team Cherry’s priorities, as far as I can tell, are:
- heavy polish, significant bugs cleared
- simultaneous release
- H1 release window barring any major issues — Leth likely advised Q1 if possible, but polish + coordination is more important to them
My assumptions (less demonstrably true):
- TC don’t want to release near Tears of the Kingdom
- TC love the poetry of a potential February release or release announcement, but won’t force it
- TC will move swiftly and with confidence — my bet is two weeks from release date announcement to release
Other informed speculation:
- they just rounded a corner last week — something shifted tonally that makes me think they just finalized some part of the release plan
- no physical at launch — but if there is, brace for April or later
- if the game is releasing in Korea at all, it’s not yet rated — Korean applications are separate from IARC
- simultaneous release means all review processes for each company must be cleared before launch
Marketing thoughts:
- release date in a Nintendo Direct would be valuable to them, but not necessary
- XBOX and PS last year were very strategic — getting in front of audiences they hadn’t specifically marketed to yet
- this also means, in Cherry Time, that they likely don’t feel the need to make another big splash for those two
- if they could coordinate with a Direct, I could see it happening — completing the loop, when it’s one of the first places they showed, especially after years of console sales
- but — they could just as easily skip it since they technically “already showcased with Nintendo”
Where does this all leave us?
- February — possible, and they’d be delighted, probably too soon for release. announcement likely, release somewhat unlikely but possible.
- March — a nice cozy release pocket, gives them a bit of space on either side. release probable.
- April — would complete a years-old mossbag joke. less likely but also incredible.
- May — if this happens I don’t think they wanted it to.
- June — more likely than May, actually, and maybe even April
- post-June — entirely possible, but things have gone wrong.
so if we do the bullshit math on my made-up facts, we get:
February release date announcement, March release
maybe