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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Dragoncaine said:
Sep 2022 easily cleared the other recent Sep directs, though I will say 2018 with Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing reveal resulted in two games that actually had immense quality, content, and polish compared to a lot of other "hype" disappointments (Switch Sports, Strikers). Cue the ACNH content jokes, but I played it for 300 hours pretty easily so lol
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I do agree, kinda the opposite of the February 2022 Direct, I came off of it insanely disappointed that the Direct was pretty much a snoozefest, opened by a bad looking sequel to Dark Moon, and just a tease for Animal Crossing when I was so desperate for something big and tangible for 2019 to get excited for. In the end, I loved New Horizons and LM3, and the Direct following it easily became my favourite pre-COVID Switch era Direct.
 
honestly, now it feels like the silence before the storm.
There will be a lot in February. I think we will get at least 1 real suprise.
There was just to little spice since the september direct.
 
LukasManak22 said:
February 13th 2019
February 17th 2021
February 9th 2022
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We can't make a prediction simply off of previous February direct dates. It seems that they correlate with 9 month earning reports in that it's released about a week after the earnings report is released. For some reason, as a business practice, this is how Nintendo shares their information with shareholders. The last couple of years Nintendo has had a direct roughly a week after the reports. If anyone could dig up the previous 5 years of report dates and cross reference it with the direct dates to see if this pattern is consistent, that would be the best indicator to go by. If my theory is true, then February 15/16th is your best bet for a direct.
 
kaladin84 said:
We can't make a prediction simply off of previous February direct dates. It seems that they correlate with 9 month earning reports in that it's released about a week after the earnings report is released. For some reason, as a business practice, this is how Nintendo shares their information with shareholders. The last couple of years Nintendo has had a direct roughly a week after the reports. If anyone could dig up the previous 5 years of report dates and cross reference it with the direct dates to see if this pattern is consistent, that would be the best indicator to go by. If my theory is true, then February 15/16th is your best bet for a direct.
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While this is a good theory it does have some limits like the fact that they had one on February 17th 2021 was simply because it was after Bowser's Fury. It also was 12 days after the earnings. The last year's February Direct was on February 9th and the 9 months results were on 10th. So the report came after the Direct, this basically rules this patern as a whole. So this does not really work. I have a long post planned for tomorrow as to why and which date I think the Direct will be so please look forward to that.
edit: I missed the Q&A with the earnings. My apologies. But yeah Direct will be after earnings, not into specific timeframe tho (f.e. Feb. 1st 2019 earnings, Direct on the 14th.) So the "about week after" does not apply.
 
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LukasManak22 said:
While this is a good theory it does have some limits like the fact that they had one on February 17th 2021 was simply because it was after Bowser's Fury. It also was 12 days after the earnings. The last year's February Direct was on February 9th and the 9 months results were on 10th. So the report came after the Direct, this basically rules this patern as a whole. So this does not really work. I have a long post planned for tomorrow as to why and which date I think the Direct will be so please look forward to that.
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👁️👄👁️
 
I’m still thinking that it will be next week.
I expect it to be on the 1st and the reason is that they want to release the Octopath Traveler 2 demo at least 3 weeks in advance.
Last year the same happened with TS after all
 
I feel like they'll want to put at least 2 weeks of space before Kirby and OT2, so I would guess Feb 9 at the latest and Feb 1 at the earliest.
 
LukasManak22 said:
While this is a good theory it does have some limits like the fact that they had one on February 17th 2021 was simply because it was after Bowser's Fury. It also was 12 days after the earnings. The last year's February Direct was on February 9th and the 9 months results were on 10th. So the report came after the Direct, this basically rules this patern as a whole. So this does not really work. I have a long post planned for tomorrow as to why and which date I think the Direct will be so please look forward to that.
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The 9 months results were on February 3rd last year actually, so I believe they might want to wait until after this February’s briefing (on the 7th) before they air a Direct. The 8th would be cutting it close, so I believe it’ll be on the 15th.
 
DrDave said:
The 9 months results were on February 3rd last year actually, so I believe they might want to wait until after this February’s briefing (on the 7th) before they air a Direct. The 8th would be cutting it close, so I believe it’ll be on the 15th.
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Could just as easily be the 9th, but yeah I'm inclined to believe it's either the 2nd or 3rd week of Feb.
 
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DrDave said:
The 9 months results were on February 3rd last year actually, so I believe they might want to wait until after this February’s results (on the 7th) before they air a Direct. The 8th would be cutting it close, so I believe it’ll be on the 15th.
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No, it was on February 10th.

image.png
 
Dragoncaine said:
Sep 2022 easily cleared the other recent Sep directs, though I will say 2018 with Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing reveal resulted in two games that actually had immense quality, content, and polish compared to a lot of other "hype" disappointments (Switch Sports, Strikers). Cue the ACNH content jokes, but I played it for 300 hours pretty easily so lol
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Switch Sports was what was promised, Strikers however was just disappointing like all the Mario Sports titles on Switch so far.
 
I'm thinking February 1st, personally. It's a Wednesday like it was last year, it allows Nintendo market Kirby one last time, and it's before the financial stuff. Perfect.
 
Mario sports title have been better on Switch than the WiiU/3DS era but still room for improvement yes. I think it's mainly their "release with little content and add later for free" that should stop or atleast improve. All games using that have suffered. Splatoon 3, Mario Maker 2, the sports game, animal crossing... etc.
 
Magic-Man said:
I'm thinking February 1st, personally. It's a Wednesday like it was last year, it allows Nintendo market Kirby one last time, and it's before the financial stuff. Perfect.
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But if it's on February 2nd we could wake up and experience a direct every day for the rest of our lives
 
Golden said:
Mario sports title have been better on Switch than the WiiU/3DS era but still room for improvement yes. I think it's mainly their "release with little content and add later for free" that should stop or atleast improve. All games using that have suffered. Splatoon 3, Mario Maker 2, the sports game, animal crossing... etc.
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This and for Striker especially the „easy to pick up / hard to master“ part was completely missed, it was just cumbersome to play and get into it.
 
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Is there any site to go back and see quickly what was revealed at which direct? A kind of index of Directs?

People often mention the "so-and-so Direct" and I can never remember which was which. Would be nice to have a resource other than the youtube vids themselves.
 
Heron said:
Is there any site to go back and see quickly what was revealed at which direct? A kind of index of Directs?

People often mention the "so-and-so Direct" and I can never remember which was which. Would be nice to have a resource other than the youtube vids themselves.
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www.nintendo.com

Nintendo Direct - Archive - Nintendo Official Site

The online home for exclusive Nintendo news — broadcast directly to you, the player.
www.nintendo.com www.nintendo.com

When you click on Direct it gives you the major headlines but it's only listed from 2019 and above. Everything else does not feature a list.
 
LukasManak22 said:
While this is a good theory it does have some limits like the fact that they had one on February 17th 2021 was simply because it was after Bowser's Fury. It also was 12 days after the earnings. The last year's February Direct was on February 9th and the 9 months results were on 10th. So the report came after the Direct, this basically rules this patern as a whole. So this does not really work. I have a long post planned for tomorrow as to why and which date I think the Direct will be so please look forward to that.
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The briefing was on the 10th, the reports were on the 3rd, which is what I was talking about. The main point I was making, and the reason for the cross reference, is that it doesn't seem like they release directs (apart from the one they had in January in 2018 was it?) early then when they release their 9 months ending financial statements. Of course I would love to be wrong this time (hopefully sooner as in next week soon).
 
LonkFromPA said:
iirc, we didn't get many rumors leading up to last February's direct. I was getting worried that there wouldn't be one because no one was leaking anything. We might not get many leaks leading up to this one
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I agree, it seems that it’s becoming more common for good Direct chatter to only arrive a handful of hours before a Direct announcement. I honestly am not really expecting any decent chatter/info before Feb 6th.
 
LonkFromPA said:
iirc, we didn't get many rumors leading up to last February's direct. I was getting worried that there wouldn't be one because no one was leaking anything. We might not get many leaks leading up to this one
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Monolith Soft renovating their website.
 
kaladin84 said:
The briefing was on the 10th, the reports were on the 3rd, which is what I was talking about. The main point I was making, and the reason for the cross reference, is that it doesn't seem like they release directs (apart from the one they had in January in 2018 was it?) early then when they release their 9 months ending financial statements. Of course I would love to be wrong this time (hopefully sooner as in next week soon).
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Yeah, I edited the message immediately afterwards. It will be after no doubt, but am not so sure about it being about the week later. Basically it could be anywhere between 8th and 16th. Am rulling out the week of 24th completely (Kirby). It's either second or third week, nothing else.
 
We already know pretty much the entire internal release schedule for the first half of 2023. Frankly, if we have a Direct in February, I'm not sure it will be a general Direct. Especially since we can imagine that big announcements will take place for the return of E3.
 
Furukawa said for him Nintendo‘s future is always on stake, every single year. That always made me think they push out what they can. However, Looking back I think it‘s clear Nintendo has a different view on the pressure to release what we picture they should. I mean not every Switch owner has bought 20 Nintendo games on release day. So even with this lower pace fresh or not launch day OG Switch owner still have a lot to dig into.

So in same way I understand them waiting for the release of new hardware.

Their biggest successes came when the former systems failed which built up a desire to dive back into Nintendo games for those skipping the GameCube or Wii U.

So the challenge for them is to build up the desire for a new gen of Nintendo games without the fail. I think waiting longer for the release & ensuring backwards compatibility like with iOS might be the way.

I think the next Direct will give us a clearer view on the way forward.
 
September 2018 was a great direct, 2022 was poor but that’s due to expectations being set high due to rumours (Metroid Prime, WW/TP, Zelda Blowout)
 
boodream said:
We already know pretty much the entire internal release schedule for the first half of 2023. Frankly, if we have a Direct in February, I'm not sure it will be a general Direct. Especially since we can imagine that big announcements will take place for the return of E3.
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Yes, it will.
 
ITSMILNER said:
September 2018 was a great direct, 2022 was poor but that’s due to expectations being set high due to rumours (Metroid Prime, WW/TP, Zelda Blowout)
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Ehh, the 2022 Direct felt off for other reasons too. I didn't like the new voiceover, Pikmin Bloom was talked about for way too long, there were too many farming social sims (this is coming from someone who loves Stardew Valley and Animal Crossing), and Pikmin 4 and Tears of the Kingdom had very small teasers. Not great.
 
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I seem to remember the September 2019 Direct being pretty good.

In general, I really liked the Directs in 2019, especially the first two. When was the partner showcase in 2020 where they announced Monster Hunter Rise? That was also fire
 
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LonkFromPA said:
iirc, we didn't get many rumors leading up to last February's direct. I was getting worried that there wouldn't be one because no one was leaking anything. We might not get many leaks leading up to this one
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I swear someone on Fami kept saying it was gonna be on the 9th just for the hell of it, who was that again?
 
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Magic-Man said:
Ehh, the 2022 Direct felt off for other reasons too. I didn't like the new voiceover, Pikmin Bloom was talked about for way too long, there was too many farming social sims (this is coming from someone who loves Stardew Valley and Animal Crossing), and Pikmin 4 and Tears of the Kingdom had very small teasers. Not great.
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God yeah, this was the one that had all the farming sims wasn’t it…..
 
ITSMILNER said:
God yeah, this was the one that had all the farming sims wasn’t it…..
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As much as there were an abnormal amount of farming sims, I'm glad it's giving us Harvest Moon Story of Seasons: A Wonderful Life remake. Technically counts as a Gamecube port!
 
LukasManak22 said:
The actual Bloom segment only lasts 1 minute and 45 seconds. It's nowhere as long as people make it to be.
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It was also a fantastic bait-and-switch. Like I could feel the groans of the community over Miyamoto talking about a mobile game in a Direct, and then wham, he hits us with the good shit.
 
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