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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

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Yoshifan31 said:
Last week Three Hopes came out, now I’m zero interested in that game as I hate both Fire Emblem and Musous. However, I would expect it to be a big deal here, like having an official topic, related threads popping up or people spoiler tagging posts about the game and whatnot.
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I can't comment on other games, but there is an official topic for Three Hopes. Participation has slowed down over the past few days, though.
 
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Bosintang said:
I don't recall seeing anyone in this forum claiming that the next switch wouldn't have those features.
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The initial point I was making was regarding this whole conversation about Switch Pro in general which extends beyond this forum. Famiboards represents a smaller group of Nintendo enthusiasts with a very active future hardware speculation thread. The convo is very different elsewhere. Sorry for the confusion.

I was responding to the sentiment of "I'm tired of hearing about Switch Pro, we've heard about it since 2018" with "it's different this time because we have leaks that point to something concrete to be excited about (and as you said, it's been 5 years)." Everything else, as you mentioned, is speculation. If this thing comes as late as 2024/2025, it's fine for me, because I have a better idea of what "it" is.
 
Yoshifan31 said:
It’s a problem when it basically hijacked all discussion in this forum

I ignored the hardware speculation thread. I check out the Direct thread, ready to tell people to calm down as we already just had a perfectly fine Direct and a pretty stacked Q3 so it’s acceptable to not expect first party news until September, it’s not like we are starved for new information. If it happens before September it’s a nice surprise, it’s pretty silly when every month is a question of #TeamMonth, it’s not January. However, even this thread can’t just be about that as we got the potential new hardware talk right at the poll. If it’s all over unrelated threads it’s pretty hard to simply ignore

I know it’s hard to make new Star Topics and the like, I know about the meme of people posting in forums not playing any games but like… where are the active topics about games. There have been a bunch of notable releases in June, between this and the huge sales there are quite a lot of games to play but I’m not seeing much about them. It’s not ideal that the best way to actually discuss games here is to hope that it’s a topic in the latest page of the General Discussion thread. Last week Three Hopes came out, now I’m zero interested in that game as I hate both Fire Emblem and Musous. However, I would expect it to be a big deal here, like having an official topic, related threads popping up or people spoiler tagging posts about the game and whatnot. I’m not seeing any of this, what I did see however is speculation on future DLC for that game appearing on a hypothetical Nintendo Direct. See the pattern, it’s just not ideal to have speculation as the bulk of most topics here
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I can understand this, for sure, but at the same time this topic is labeled "Nintendo Event Speculation" and covers both a Direct as well as any kind of hardware reveal event, too. And July, due to history and Patternz, is also prime time for hardware speculation talk, so it's only natural we'd be here now, especially with all the recent rumors and uptick in conversation about it elsewhere. I get it becoming tiresome, but I guess all I can say is maybe wait a few weeks? It will die down again before too long here if nothing happens.

As others have said, some games do get topics and have good participation, and there is a Three hopes thread active. For one thing, this forum is pretty heavily RPG-focused (in general), so I think we'll get some good participation in Live-A-Live in a couple weeks. And the Xenoblade 3 ST is going to be HUGE, I can guarantee it.
 
Nintendo getting out third party announcements first makes me think they have a big Nintendo focused direct coming with new hardware so I voted for 12-15 july with new hardware.
 
I don't expect a pro at this point. Switch hardware sales are already getting a bit long in the tooth, down quite a bit YoY in Japan for example, so I expect the succ either holiday 2023 or spring 2024. With that in mind, and Bayonetta 3 being the only announced title for this year without a date yet (I think?), I wonder if Nintendo even sees the need for a Direct right now. They could easily just drop that news as a tweet/separate trailer. Same with Metroid Prime HD if it's coming this holiday. Or even hold off till the hypothetical September Direct, depending on when these are planned to release? Which is probably where they're saving their BotW2 blowout for at this point too.
 
Lord Azrael said:
I don't expect a pro at this point. Switch hardware sales are already getting a bit long in the tooth, down quite a bit YoY in Japan for example, so I expect the succ either holiday 2023 or spring 2024. With that in mind, and Bayonetta 3 being the only announced title for this year without a date yet (I think?), I wonder if Nintendo even sees the need for a Direct right now. They could easily just drop that news as a tweet/separate trailer. Same with Metroid Prime HD if it's coming this holiday. Or even hold off till the hypothetical September Direct, depending on when these are planned to release? Which is probably where they're saving their BotW2 blowout for at this point too.
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I think this is where I'm landing, too. There's a ton of options and things that could happen, and the Partner Direct was still a weird move depending on what happens soon, but Occam's Razor seems to be that they just don't have/want to show a lot right now and are going to wait until September.
 
Only reason I have my doubts about Switch's successor console happening earlier than late 2023 is because I feel like Nintendo will want to position a new Mario Kart game within its launch window as their big sales driver, and it's hard to imagine that while DLC for Kart 8 is still ongoing. MK and 3D Mario are imo the big things they'd be priming up.

But I guess we'll see what happens! It doesn't feel like we're working with traditional console cycles, and the next Switch is bound to be backwards compatible anyway.
 
For those expecting a Metroid Prime announcement this month, why? If it's a November game wouldn't it make sense to announce it at the September Direct? We still haven't gotten announcements for another September game and/or another October game.
 
Magic-Man said:
For those expecting a Metroid Prime announcement this month, why? If it's a November game wouldn't it make sense to announce it at the September Direct? We still haven't gotten announcements for another September game and/or another October game.
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I just don't think they'd have an announcement-to-release window of only two months, that feels super short. So a September Direct feels too late for that. I know that happened a few times in 2020, but that was 2020 and I don't think is something Nintendo normally want to do.

Metroid Dread already felt like it was an awfully quick turnaround, and that was a four-ish month window.
 
SammyJ9 said:
I just don't think they'd have an announcement-to-release window of only two months, that feels super short. So a September Direct feels too late for that. I know that happened a few times in 2020, but that was 2020 and I don't think is something Nintendo normally want to do.

Metroid Dread already felt like it was an awfully quick turnaround, and that was a four-ish month window.
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Didn't Switch Sports have a super short announcement to release window? And that's a whole lot bigger than Metroid (no offense to Metroid of course). When we still haven't gotten dates or announcements for games coming sooner, an announcement for a November game this soon makes no sense IMO.
 
Mario Maker 2 was also a relatively short announcement-to-release.

However, I don't know about these comparisons if Prime HD is set up to be some kind of tentpole holiday release. Then it might need more time and spotlight.
 
Magic-Man said:
Didn't Switch Sports have a super short announcement to release window? And that's a whole lot bigger than Metroid (no offense to Metroid of course). When we still haven't gotten dates or announcements for games coming sooner, an announcement for a November game this soon makes no sense IMO.
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Switch Sports was 2.5 months or so, so yeah it was very tight. About the shortest I would expect. And it's not that I'm expecting ONLY Metroid Prime, I think we'll get every game that's coming out through November announced before the September Direct for the same reason.
 
I don't think you need a big release window to Prime HD if the only thing new about it is a presentational overhaul. Nintendo could easily treat it as one of their 2-months-out stealth reveals like Paper Mario and Hyrule Warriors 2 were, even if it'd likely be saved for their September Direct if it's targeting the holidays.
 
I'm pretty sure that Nintendo has had the extremely short announcement to release windows only for casual titles like Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports. Everything else a minimum of ~4ish months but I could be mistaken.

edit: RFA was a little over a month
 
Dardan Sandiego said:
I'm pretty sure that Nintendo has had the extremely short announcement to release windows only for casual titles like Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports. Everything else a minimum of ~4ish months but I could be mistaken.

edit: RFA was a little over a month
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And Mario 3D All Stars but that's probably a special case
 
Decoyman said:
I don't think you need a big release window to Prime HD if the only thing new about it is a presentational overhaul. Nintendo could easily treat it as one of their 2-months-out stealth reveals like Paper Mario and Hyrule Warriors 2 were, even if it'd likely be saved for their September Direct if it's targeting the holidays.
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NabiscoFelt said:
And Mario 3D All Stars but that's probably a special case
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We don't talk about 2020.....
 
Irene said:
Mario Maker 2 was also a relatively short announcement-to-release.

However, I don't know about these comparisons if Prime HD is set up to be some kind of tentpole holiday release. Then it might need more time and spotlight.
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Mario Maker 2 had around 4 months reveal to release; an announcement for Prime HD in the first half of this month, and a November release, would be comparable.

I do think it's likelier an announcement comes this month. Personally hoping for some form of software showcase by the middle of the month.
 
2020 was its own year. Can’t make comparisons to then. Everything else that’s not sports related or very casual is 4ish months. July it is.

Everyone 1-2 Switch I expect to have the 1-2 months announcement to release
 
NabiscoFelt said:
And Mario 3D All Stars but that's probably a special case
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Also concrete proof Nintendo don't give a shit about leaks. 3D All Stars leaked in April of that year and Nintendo still sat on it until a couple of weeks before launch.

I'd be surprised if Nintendo only gave Prime HD a few weeks run-in, though. Samus Returns and Dread each had 3 to 4 months of promotion from reveal to release and the latter has been very successful. Nintendo could well be planning a similar targeted run up to Prime HD, with regular news drops and developer interviews and trailers, just like Dread had.
 
Speaking of September Direct announcements, has the September Direct EVER announced a Nintendo title for the first time that was coming out before the end of the year? I feel like the September Direct is generally just 3rd parties, updates on games through the end of the year, and setting up early-mid year the next year
 
SammyJ9 said:
Speaking of September Direct announcements, has the September Direct EVER announced a Nintendo title for the first time that was coming out before the end of the year? I feel like the September Direct is generally just 3rd parties, updates on games through the end of the year, and setting up early-mid year the next year
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Have they announced a small eShop Kirby game? Other than that I don’t recall them ever doing it.
 
Dark Cloud said:
2020 was its own year. Can’t make comparisons to then. Everything else that’s not sports related or very casual is 4ish months. July it is.

Everyone 1-2 Switch I expect to have the 1-2 months announcement to release
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we also said this about a potential Partner Showcase last month lol. Never say never with Nintendo.
 
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Our latest instance of making the mistake of relying upon 2020 as an indicator of anything was when we were so sure that June's Direct would not be a Partner Mini simply because "2020 was a special case".

Even with that, 2020 won.
 
poop said:
Our latest instance of making the mistake of relying upon 2020 as an indicator of anything was when we were so sure that June's Direct would not be a Partner Mini simply because "2020 was a special case".

Even with that, 2020 won.
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yep lol
 
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poop said:
Our latest instance of making the mistake of relying upon 2020 as an indicator of anything was when we were so sure that June's Direct would not be a Partner Mini simply because "2020 was a special case".

Even with that, 2020 won.
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I think we also had the July 2020 Partner Showcase in mind when we thought of it - the one that was just a massive disappointment all the way around. I think this past Direct proves that a Partner Showcase can be very substantial. Maybe going forward we won't become terrified at that style of Direct anymore.
 
Joe said:
I think we also had the July 2020 Partner Showcase in mind when we thought of it - the one that was just a massive disappointment all the way around. I think this past Direct proves that a Partner Showcase can be very substantial. Maybe going forward we won't become terrified at that style of Direct anymore.
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For me most longer showcases are at least half decent. Odds are they show enough software (20 to 30 games, or more) where I see something, or several somethings, that interest me.

It helps that the Switch software mix has a strong level of appeal for me. I don't think last week's Direct was particularly exciting in terms of surprises or new reveals, but it had enough interesting things (like Harvestella) that I'd never seen coming and which I might miss without the exposure Directs offer to all sorts of games.

I wouldn't mind a couple of Partner Showcases a year if they stayed like that and we got the 3 general Directs too. Switch has games, as Nintendo say; and developers pay to get in a Direct. There was enough 'missing' from last week (especially if you include Nintendo) to justify another presentation before long, even if that's not the route Nintendo ultimately go down.
 
Raccoon said:
No September Direct would be very strange, as it is generally done around tge same time as Tokyo Game Show. Third party publishers will be announcing games around then with or without a Direct.
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True but I can't see July and September directs, too close together
 
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The main benefit I can see of holding off on a Prime HD announcement until a Direct is because it would probably give them the leeway to give a potential new teaser for Prime 4. I genuinely feel that the game could be a 2023 holiday title since by the end of this year it'll have had at least four years in active development (barring COVID setbacks), we're likely closer to the game's release than we are to the date of its development reboot.

Without having the context of where Prime 4 is, a Prime remake may be seen as even more of a holding pattern than Dread might've seemed to some, especially since Dread was at least a brand new game.
 
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jnWake said:
True, forgot about that. So there's like 5-6 potential things to announce "soon" (they could easily skip announcing a NSO roadmap).

Honestly, the thing that makes me doubt a Direct is just why would they separate the announcements of 1st party and 3rd party stuff, even though I felt the recent Partner Direct not having 1st party stuff was a plus for the games revealed.
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If they're announcing hardware, that's going to take up a lot of time in the stream that would normally go to third party projects.
 
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poop said:
Our latest instance of making the mistake of relying upon 2020 as an indicator of anything was when we were so sure that June's Direct would not be a Partner Mini simply because "2020 was a special case".

Even with that, 2020 won.
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Let’s be real, 2020 never ended :(
 
poop said:
Our latest instance of making the mistake of relying upon 2020 as an indicator of anything was when we were so sure that June's Direct would not be a Partner Mini simply because "2020 was a special case".

Even with that, 2020 won.
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No, I'm pretty sure 2020 two ;p
 
I don't see any new hardware hitting the market before first quarter of 2023, and no announcements for it until at least 6 months prior to launch.

If there is any event this month, besides smaller twitter drops, I'd expect a 20 min-ish Nintendo Mini First-party showcase, or something primarily 1st-party - as a possibility mentioned by both Jeff Grubb and Nate, which could potentially be shadow dropped during the week, or announced 24 hrs before.

It would primarily cover DLC updates, NSO expansion stuff, reveal of a Splatoon 3 direct, dating Bayonetta 3 and Advance Wars, and have Metroid Prime HD as the main big announcement/possible closer. This would essentially lay out Nintendo's complete line up for 2022.

I think the reveal of new bigger EPD titles, Fire Emblem, and BOTW 2 stuff will have their marketing tied closely to the new Switch hardware and would start in Sept/Oct.
 
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