Shareholder Chad
FORMER Nintendo Shareholder
Disclaimers, Qualifiers, and Context: First off, I am a Daytrader/Investor on Wall street. I am not rich but I make a comfortable living for myself solely on my ability to forecast stock movements and manage odds based strategies. One of my passions are Japanese based companies like Nintendo, Sony, Hitachi, Toyota, and Toshiba. Specifically Nintendo and Hitachi. The following information in this thread is merely my opinion and not only could be wrong but also will be changed as new data presents itself. This is not financial advice and I am not advocating anyone buy or sell any stock without talking to a licensed professional in their area. The reason for this thread is simply to educate, illuminate, and present my thesis as to what recent stock moves could mean for a Switch 2 announcement and release based on my experiences. Many advocated for a thread based on Stock from the "Future Nintendo Hardware tech speculation" thread. I will present a TLDR version with the bulletpoints and funfacts at the bottom.
Introduction:
In 1962, Nintendo went public on the Kyoto Stock Exchange under Nintendo & co., LTD. Ever since then, investors could buy a "piece" or "fraction" of the company called stock/shares. Normally for people outside of Japan, It is impossible to invest with them without either being a citizen, Permanent resident or being married to a citizen of Japanese descent. This continues today but thanks to ADR's (American Depositary Receipts) such as NTDOY or NTDOF, We can trade/own TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) companies. However our version (NTDOY) is weighted usually at an 8 to 1 ratio, Meaning you need 8 shares in NTDOY to equal one stock of Nintendo on the TSE.
The difference between NTDOY and NTDOF is the weighted ratio and volume. NTDOY is weighted less and traded more per day (thus more "volume"). NTDOF I believe is 1:1 but less volume is bad for anyone not looking to hold the stock for years or till retirement. The tricky part is, Nintendo does not sponsor these two ADR's and thus are NOT involved with them. This is a 3rd party buying on the TSE and reselling on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) Ebay like. Stock movements between Nintendo on the TSE vs. the ADR on the NYSE are usually mirrored so we will look at graphs based on NTDOY for simplicity.
Stock movements with events noted:
So here we have a chart of NTDOY from 2005 to 2023 with labels on when certain events happened. Each red or green "line" represents the stock movement for one weeks time via a "Candle" but it basically can be looked at as a Line graph. The thesis I made mention of in the Future Nintendo Hardware thread is that insider traders have caught wind of a potential Switch 2 announcement being imminent and based on my Business inner circle, Many have heard and gearing up for a late May 2024 release. Yes, They can be wrong but the odds are 65/35 in their favor. Ill take that.
This is reflected in the chart here. The Wii, 3DS, Smartphone plans, Switch, and even the SMB movie all had major run ups in the stock shortly before the official announcements. The Wii-U did not and while I was a mere rookie in this game at the time, I do remember project cafe rumors being mocked and belittled before even the official announcement. Everyone except Nintendo knew that was going to be a dumpster fire and tech investors were very weary of investing due to 2008 GFC and the horrendous 3DS sales. I'll call this an anomaly and throw it out due to the context of the time. (Dark times). Lets zoom in on each announcement and take a closer look.
The Wii announcement. As you can see, The candles here have long "wicks" outside of the main bar. This just means the stock dipped very low or very high and returned to the trend norm that same week. These happens for all sorts of unimportant reasons so I'm not going to waste words on it. From 95 to 05, Nintendo was in a major downtrend in their stock. a few months before the official announcement of the Wii, it broke that downtrend and started a new trend upwards even though we can see a small little pullback before the official announcement. Somebody caught wind of something here. I was not actively trading in 2004 so I have very little to offer in terms of context. Lets move to the 3DS.
Would you look at that? Nintendo's stock breaks a downtrending channel 6 months or so before the announcement of the 3DS (It was "revealed" at e3 fyi) through flat sideways action then goes parabolic 3 months before the announcement. Keep this one in mind as we move forward folks. I really see a ton of similarities between this stock action and our current day stock action. Also, there is a belief that the Wii-U killed Nintendo's stock during this time period of 2010-2015 but I truely believe it was the 3DS. The immediate pivot on price and horrendous first months sales data burned everyone who bought Nintendo stock during the lead up to the 3DS (Including me). As shareholders, We are vengeful, prideful, and do not forget easily when a company betrays us. This is reflected in the 2010-2015 period where the stock flatlined.
I'm not going to zoom in on the Wii-U event because its basically straight down then flat. No rises for the announcement nor release. Big money (Rich people like Warren Buffet), and shareholders were OVER Nintendo. Its the one event where they did not see a rise before the announcement. Good reasoning aside, Its still the one piece of data against my theory and is worth mentioning. Lets look at Switch.
We have two product events that fit my thesis of note with this one (And one terrible event. RIP Iwata, My favorite CEO. Even got to shake his hand once). First is the Smartphone game plans being announced. I heard a rumor about this right before the stock went upwards above the gray line. I bought stock in the middle of it and it was my first major win with Nintendo. Another representation of a huge stock run up before a major announcement. Same goes with Switch. Once I heard of their rumored plan to combine both Handheld and console divisions, I was convinced this was going to be BIG so I made Nintendo my #1 stock holding and started investing with Nvidia shortly after the switch release (Woooo weee boy). Lets now take a look at present day and compare/contrast with what we just looked over.
Boom. Do I even need to explain this? Its so perfect. Once again, Nintendo's stock breaks a longterm trend right before we are expecting a Switch 2 announcement. Not only that, It looks extremely similar to the 3DS announcement graph above. This is all explained by insider trading. Every company has it and it even extends to government officials in both USA and JPN. I started hearing all kinds of crap from Wallstreet before Gamescom then Natedrake mentioned what he heard from those on the floor of gamescom about March. Shortly after, I start hearing about May 2024. I want to be VERY clear. I am not an insider. I am just plugged in with wall street happenings. Frontrunning tech announcements is a big part of being an investor and we aim to predict them as close as we can to capture what you see here. That huge run up out of a channel (btw, This happened directly after gamescom)
To further explain, Most investors do not pile into a clear downtrending stock unless they are VERY sure of a reason, announcement, w/e that will break it and that happening being VERY close. "Duh its going to get announced soon, Whats this have to do with release?" Well, Glad you asked. The release often brings its own run AFTER (not before like the announcement) the event. So investors ideally want to frontrun the announcement -> Take profit aka: "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" -> Rebuy just before release. The first part of this plan is easy guaranteed money made...only if you don't screw up when the announcement IS. Your almost forced to hold your stock through possible further downside hurting your portfolio as well as incurring heavy opportunity cost (IE: Capital is tied up in Nintendo incurring losses when it can be used for other opportunities). The announcement approach is very important and allows you to follow through with Part 2 and 3. Investors do not do this without heavy thought and evaluation. We are convinced of Jan/Feb teaser, March reveal, and Late may release. Anything deviating from this will be considered a failure (and we do fail sometimes) of research and prediction.
Stock future:
This is already a massive post so Ill be brief here since most do not care to invest with Nintendo. Bottomline, I believe the announcement move as made and we are about to enter a "Take profit" pullback stage. This could start happening by March 2024 and end by May or June 2024.
The green line is my primary trade plan. I will likely take profit the first week of January while still maintaining my core holdings that never get traded. The red line you see here is something I am very worried about not because of anything Switch 2 related but overall worldwide market headwinds (War in Israel/Ukraine, Credit crisis looming, etc.). At any point, The rug could be pulled out from underneath any stock in the USA/JPN but that is the risk you take in wall street.
Oh by the way. Not to toot my own horn but I did predict this big move up we see here when I first posted a chart here back in November.
https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...ts-before-commenting.55/page-1993#post-884655
TLDR: Everybody's favorite section
Q&A: Will update this section with any common questions
Q: Holy shit, I thought you were just a parody account or LARPing?
Nope. I am the real deal. I own a significant amount of Nintendo shares as a means of supporting one of my favorite companies due to the products they make for everyone.
Q: How do I get started buying or selling Nintendo stock?
First off, I do not recommend getting into stocks. It is extremely hard and dangerous but if you insist: Make an account with a broker such as Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade and for the love of all that is holy, PLEASE do your research and ask professionals in your area for advice/instruction on buying stock. It is full of risk. I will not link it but googling "Investopedia" has a wealth of information to help. (Mods: Feel free to remove this part if needed)
Q: Doesn't all stocks just simply go up or follow the worldwide economic flow?
Yes but also no. Major economic events will impact all stocks as seen above in the 2008 GFC, 2020 Covid19, and 2022 Inflation crisis. Other major downfalls include 2011 USA credit downgrade and the 2018 "Volmageddon" event (rising interest rates). Nintendo's stock followed all other stocks in falling during these events. Throughout history, All stocks go up but you can still end up with a 20 year downtrend that ruins your 401K. Ask Japan in 1990.
Q: Favorite game?
The most profitable Nintendo game of all time: Wii sports. Also Super Mario RPG and Fortune Street.
Q: Can I use this in a Youtube video?
Not without my permission via PM. Without proper warnings it can indirectly cause non-professional traders to make huge mistakes plus...I mean...why? Nobody cares about stonks. Itll be your least viewed video by far.
Q: What about the Red sea conflict?
I address this under post 106
Introduction:
In 1962, Nintendo went public on the Kyoto Stock Exchange under Nintendo & co., LTD. Ever since then, investors could buy a "piece" or "fraction" of the company called stock/shares. Normally for people outside of Japan, It is impossible to invest with them without either being a citizen, Permanent resident or being married to a citizen of Japanese descent. This continues today but thanks to ADR's (American Depositary Receipts) such as NTDOY or NTDOF, We can trade/own TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) companies. However our version (NTDOY) is weighted usually at an 8 to 1 ratio, Meaning you need 8 shares in NTDOY to equal one stock of Nintendo on the TSE.
The difference between NTDOY and NTDOF is the weighted ratio and volume. NTDOY is weighted less and traded more per day (thus more "volume"). NTDOF I believe is 1:1 but less volume is bad for anyone not looking to hold the stock for years or till retirement. The tricky part is, Nintendo does not sponsor these two ADR's and thus are NOT involved with them. This is a 3rd party buying on the TSE and reselling on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) Ebay like. Stock movements between Nintendo on the TSE vs. the ADR on the NYSE are usually mirrored so we will look at graphs based on NTDOY for simplicity.
Stock movements with events noted:
So here we have a chart of NTDOY from 2005 to 2023 with labels on when certain events happened. Each red or green "line" represents the stock movement for one weeks time via a "Candle" but it basically can be looked at as a Line graph. The thesis I made mention of in the Future Nintendo Hardware thread is that insider traders have caught wind of a potential Switch 2 announcement being imminent and based on my Business inner circle, Many have heard and gearing up for a late May 2024 release. Yes, They can be wrong but the odds are 65/35 in their favor. Ill take that.
This is reflected in the chart here. The Wii, 3DS, Smartphone plans, Switch, and even the SMB movie all had major run ups in the stock shortly before the official announcements. The Wii-U did not and while I was a mere rookie in this game at the time, I do remember project cafe rumors being mocked and belittled before even the official announcement. Everyone except Nintendo knew that was going to be a dumpster fire and tech investors were very weary of investing due to 2008 GFC and the horrendous 3DS sales. I'll call this an anomaly and throw it out due to the context of the time. (Dark times). Lets zoom in on each announcement and take a closer look.
The Wii announcement. As you can see, The candles here have long "wicks" outside of the main bar. This just means the stock dipped very low or very high and returned to the trend norm that same week. These happens for all sorts of unimportant reasons so I'm not going to waste words on it. From 95 to 05, Nintendo was in a major downtrend in their stock. a few months before the official announcement of the Wii, it broke that downtrend and started a new trend upwards even though we can see a small little pullback before the official announcement. Somebody caught wind of something here. I was not actively trading in 2004 so I have very little to offer in terms of context. Lets move to the 3DS.
Would you look at that? Nintendo's stock breaks a downtrending channel 6 months or so before the announcement of the 3DS (It was "revealed" at e3 fyi) through flat sideways action then goes parabolic 3 months before the announcement. Keep this one in mind as we move forward folks. I really see a ton of similarities between this stock action and our current day stock action. Also, there is a belief that the Wii-U killed Nintendo's stock during this time period of 2010-2015 but I truely believe it was the 3DS. The immediate pivot on price and horrendous first months sales data burned everyone who bought Nintendo stock during the lead up to the 3DS (Including me). As shareholders, We are vengeful, prideful, and do not forget easily when a company betrays us. This is reflected in the 2010-2015 period where the stock flatlined.
I'm not going to zoom in on the Wii-U event because its basically straight down then flat. No rises for the announcement nor release. Big money (Rich people like Warren Buffet), and shareholders were OVER Nintendo. Its the one event where they did not see a rise before the announcement. Good reasoning aside, Its still the one piece of data against my theory and is worth mentioning. Lets look at Switch.
We have two product events that fit my thesis of note with this one (And one terrible event. RIP Iwata, My favorite CEO. Even got to shake his hand once). First is the Smartphone game plans being announced. I heard a rumor about this right before the stock went upwards above the gray line. I bought stock in the middle of it and it was my first major win with Nintendo. Another representation of a huge stock run up before a major announcement. Same goes with Switch. Once I heard of their rumored plan to combine both Handheld and console divisions, I was convinced this was going to be BIG so I made Nintendo my #1 stock holding and started investing with Nvidia shortly after the switch release (Woooo weee boy). Lets now take a look at present day and compare/contrast with what we just looked over.
Boom. Do I even need to explain this? Its so perfect. Once again, Nintendo's stock breaks a longterm trend right before we are expecting a Switch 2 announcement. Not only that, It looks extremely similar to the 3DS announcement graph above. This is all explained by insider trading. Every company has it and it even extends to government officials in both USA and JPN. I started hearing all kinds of crap from Wallstreet before Gamescom then Natedrake mentioned what he heard from those on the floor of gamescom about March. Shortly after, I start hearing about May 2024. I want to be VERY clear. I am not an insider. I am just plugged in with wall street happenings. Frontrunning tech announcements is a big part of being an investor and we aim to predict them as close as we can to capture what you see here. That huge run up out of a channel (btw, This happened directly after gamescom)
To further explain, Most investors do not pile into a clear downtrending stock unless they are VERY sure of a reason, announcement, w/e that will break it and that happening being VERY close. "Duh its going to get announced soon, Whats this have to do with release?" Well, Glad you asked. The release often brings its own run AFTER (not before like the announcement) the event. So investors ideally want to frontrun the announcement -> Take profit aka: "Buy the rumor, Sell the news" -> Rebuy just before release. The first part of this plan is easy guaranteed money made...only if you don't screw up when the announcement IS. Your almost forced to hold your stock through possible further downside hurting your portfolio as well as incurring heavy opportunity cost (IE: Capital is tied up in Nintendo incurring losses when it can be used for other opportunities). The announcement approach is very important and allows you to follow through with Part 2 and 3. Investors do not do this without heavy thought and evaluation. We are convinced of Jan/Feb teaser, March reveal, and Late may release. Anything deviating from this will be considered a failure (and we do fail sometimes) of research and prediction.
Stock future:
This is already a massive post so Ill be brief here since most do not care to invest with Nintendo. Bottomline, I believe the announcement move as made and we are about to enter a "Take profit" pullback stage. This could start happening by March 2024 and end by May or June 2024.
The green line is my primary trade plan. I will likely take profit the first week of January while still maintaining my core holdings that never get traded. The red line you see here is something I am very worried about not because of anything Switch 2 related but overall worldwide market headwinds (War in Israel/Ukraine, Credit crisis looming, etc.). At any point, The rug could be pulled out from underneath any stock in the USA/JPN but that is the risk you take in wall street.
Oh by the way. Not to toot my own horn but I did predict this big move up we see here when I first posted a chart here back in November.
https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...ts-before-commenting.55/page-1993#post-884655
TLDR: Everybody's favorite section
- Through my professional trading life, I have a thesis that stocks undergo parabolic upward movements shortly before a major product or event announcement. This is explained through insider trading that happens everywhere. The Nintendo Wii, 3DS, Switch, Smartphone collaboration, and film collaboration all represent this and we just had the same thing happen in present day indicating we will see a Switch 2 announcement in the next 1-3 months.
- I am not an insider but I heard May 2024 release through my circle of business contacts and see follow through with stock action supporting the rumor.
- Nintendo's stock has undergone a massive rise since Gamescom and I believe that wasn't just because of the tech that was reported there. Jan/Feb teaser tweet, March reveal, May release.
- I believe Nintendo's stock may go through a fall soon and the pre-announcement buying event is largely exhausted
- Everything posted here is just opinion and not financial advice. I also avoid any personal contacts with Nintendo employees like the plague.
- "Just remember, We are all on the same team here. If you buy Nintendo products, We are friends" - Me
- The Nintendo Switch 2 is shareholder approved. Lets get it done.
Q&A: Will update this section with any common questions
Q: Holy shit, I thought you were just a parody account or LARPing?
Nope. I am the real deal. I own a significant amount of Nintendo shares as a means of supporting one of my favorite companies due to the products they make for everyone.
Q: How do I get started buying or selling Nintendo stock?
First off, I do not recommend getting into stocks. It is extremely hard and dangerous but if you insist: Make an account with a broker such as Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade and for the love of all that is holy, PLEASE do your research and ask professionals in your area for advice/instruction on buying stock. It is full of risk. I will not link it but googling "Investopedia" has a wealth of information to help. (Mods: Feel free to remove this part if needed)
Q: Doesn't all stocks just simply go up or follow the worldwide economic flow?
Yes but also no. Major economic events will impact all stocks as seen above in the 2008 GFC, 2020 Covid19, and 2022 Inflation crisis. Other major downfalls include 2011 USA credit downgrade and the 2018 "Volmageddon" event (rising interest rates). Nintendo's stock followed all other stocks in falling during these events. Throughout history, All stocks go up but you can still end up with a 20 year downtrend that ruins your 401K. Ask Japan in 1990.
Q: Favorite game?
The most profitable Nintendo game of all time: Wii sports. Also Super Mario RPG and Fortune Street.
Q: Can I use this in a Youtube video?
Not without my permission via PM. Without proper warnings it can indirectly cause non-professional traders to make huge mistakes plus...I mean...why? Nobody cares about stonks. Itll be your least viewed video by far.
Q: What about the Red sea conflict?
I address this under post 106
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