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Discussion Nintendo share/stock history, Analysis, and how it could relate to the Switch 2

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Shareholder Chad said:
I haven’t done a whole lot of research on how this affects Nintendo’s shipping but it will affect their stock price due to shareholders fear of broader conflict erupting. Nintendo is down 1% today (14 cents on NTDOY) but so is most tech companies. The index (S&p500) is also down exactly 1%. So I wouldn’t worry about anything YET.

just using logic, I’d say Nintendo should be largely unaffected outside of shipping to Europe due to looking at a map. The Red Sea is in the Middle East and Japan has a straight shot to our west coast.

Unless WWlll breaks out of this Israel/Houthis/Hamis conflict, it shouldn’t affect plans for the Switch 2.

Edit: Sidenote, this is still a massive deal for shipping in general and could cause a major war and/or economic crisis. Just not a major deal for Japan’s exports to America specifically.
Click to expand...

So this post may be wrong. I need to do more digging (even after doing more digging lol) but the there actually may be cause for concern regarding this and the switch 2 launch plans.

This is not my field of expertise so apologies lol
 
It is a very interesting analysis that reflects my personal expectations.🙂 For me they will announce Switch 2 at the financial briefing in February, it will be officially presented to the press with an event in March and sale in stores between May or June.

Furthermore, according to what Miyamoto said in the September Direct, work on the Nintendo Museum is expected to be completed in March. Ok, the opening to the public will probably take place only a few months later, but I have always imagined a scenario in which Nintendo will invite the specialized press to the presentation of the new console and on that same occasion, the possibility of showing them a preview of the Museum. I think they will want to create a very strong communication context in that period between the inauguration of the Museum and the presentation of Switch 2. 🙂
 
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Shareholder Chad said:
So this post may be wrong. I need to do more digging (even after doing more digging lol) but the there actually may be cause for concern regarding this and the switch 2 launch plans.

This is not my field of expertise so apologies lol
Click to expand...

Apenknul said:
You think it might get delayed?
Click to expand...
Unlikely but shipping rates are going up.because of the red sea incidents

I doubt Nintendo Switch 2 production is impacted but indirect impacts would be cost of inputs that may have to travel through the red sea as well as exporting to Europe if they use the Suez and red sea route which seems likely

Generally investors get jittery when the global situation is unstable not sure why people.jump to delay . Unless. There is a point I missed upthread
 
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the only way I feel shipping is an actual concern is if Iran somehow actually follows through on it's threat to close the straits of Gibralar, which I don't know if it can. None of it's proxies are anywhere near that area and after what happened yeseterday....I imagine they have other issues to attend t atm
 
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Red Sea tensions and possible effects on the Switch 2 announcement/release
  • Index
    • Apenknul said:
    You think it might get delayed?
    Click to expand...
    @InsaneZero - Original question

    If the red sea becomes a warzone, Yes. If the international community can establish security, No. What happens in the next 4 weeks will be critical in my opinion. The USA and other countries have put their line in the sand as of yesterday but attacks have continued. We'll see what happens. This could also resolve quickly even if it means launching an offensive against the Houthis but with an Iranian warship entering the red sea....well....you could see it could delay any resolution if conflict breaks out.

    Here is a map. Lets focus on the conversation on the Switch 2.

    the-east.png


    So its been confirmed cargo ships are now switching to the red route as seen here in the picture. This has doubled shipping prices for anything going into Europe. So even without full blown conflict, the effects are already taking shape. The blue line is the normal route for shipping that is taken from China and southeast asia to Europe.

    I cannot find a definitive source but logically, anything made in southeast Asia, China, and India are shipped across the PACIFIC ocean to the USA. The nintendo switch is assembled in Vietnam so assuming Nintendo just uses the same logistics plan, it should simply go across the pacific ocean for the Switch 2. Well, prices for freight sea shipping to USA across the pacific have also increased (Why? More demand for that route probably). So shipping in general has gone up significantly.

    Big "What if" here but If China were to pick this year to make a play on Taiwan, Well that could be another massive blow to international maritime shipping. Tensions between Philippines and China aren't great either after some ships ran into each other recently. Nintendo will not launch the switch 2 if this happens. The red sea thing is a maybe. If China/Philippines/Taiwan get on with it, Its over (especially if USA gets involved)

    TLDR: Overall, Lot of what if's here. This might be a "draw your own conclusion thing". If I had to take a guess....I'd say Nintendo delays it once both parties start engaging either other (USA vs. Houthis) and war breaks out otherwise its business as usual (at a higher price)


    Fun Facts:

    • Nintendo’s primary distribution warehouse for USA is located in Groveport, Ohio.
    • Nintendo's primary distribution warehouse for EUR is Großostheim, Germany
    • Nintendo's Primary distribution warehouse for JPN is Kyoto, Japan
    • Consoles are shipped primarly by Sea but in for the Switch launch, They shipped by air to EUR and USA for a month.
    • Freight Sea shipping that typically uses the Red sea has doubled in price. Including shipments to USA.

    Sources:
    Assembly being moved to Vietnam from China
    Switch shipped by Air at launch
    Shipping cost rises for Red sea shipments
    Shipping Lane changes
     
  • Index
    • Another factor is if the Gaza fight eventually shifts to a more low-interesity phase. If that happens, it's a question if the Houthis they will see it worth continuing these attacks.

    Of course this all a big hypothetical at the moment. I don't think at this stage a delay is in the cards
     
    Shareholder Chad said:
    @InsaneZero - Original question

    If the red sea becomes a warzone, Yes. If the international community can establish security, No. What happens in the next 4 weeks will be critical in my opinion. The USA and other countries have put their line in the sand as of yesterday but attacks have continued. We'll see what happens. This could also resolve quickly even if it means launching an offensive against the Houthis but with an Iranian warship entering the red sea....well....you could see it could delay any resolution if conflict breaks out.

    Here is a map. Lets focus on the conversation on the Switch 2.

    the-east.png


    So its been confirmed cargo ships are now switching to the red route as seen here in the picture. This has doubled shipping prices for anything going into Europe. So even without full blown conflict, the effects are already taking shape. The blue line is the normal route for shipping that is taken from China and southeast asia to Europe.

    I cannot find a definitive source but logically, anything made in southeast Asia, China, and India are shipped across the PACIFIC ocean to the USA. The nintendo switch is assembled in Vietnam so assuming Nintendo just uses the same logistics plan, it should simply go across the pacific ocean for the Switch 2. Well, prices for freight sea shipping to USA across the pacific have also increased (Why? More demand for that route probably). So shipping in general has gone up significantly.

    Big "What if" here but If China were to pick this year to make a play on Taiwan, Well that could be another massive blow to international maritime shipping. Tensions between Philippines and China aren't great either after some ships ran into each other recently. Nintendo will not launch the switch 2 if this happens. The red sea thing is a maybe. If China/Philippines/Taiwan get on with it, Its over (especially if USA gets involved)

    TLDR: Overall, Lot of what if's here. This might be a "draw your own conclusion thing". If I had to take a guess....I'd say Nintendo delays it once both parties start engaging either other (USA vs. Houthis) and war breaks out otherwise its business as usual (at a higher price)


    Fun Facts:

    • Nintendo’s primary distribution warehouse for USA is located in Groveport, Ohio.
    • Nintendo's primary distribution warehouse for EUR is Großostheim, Germany
    • Nintendo's Primary distribution warehouse for JPN is Kyoto, Japan
    • Consoles are shipped primarly by Sea but in for the Switch launch, They shipped by air to EUR and USA for a month.
    • Freight Sea shipping that typically uses the Red sea has doubled in price. Including shipments to USA.

    Sources:
    Assembly being moved to Vietnam from China
    Switch shipped by Air at launch
    Shipping cost rises for Red sea shipments
    Shipping Lane changes
    Click to expand...
    One thing to note is the article says that shipping costs are actually still lower atm than they were in 2021 an 2022 so take that fwiw
     
    redmutineer75 said:

    China's final warning - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
    Click to expand...
    unit 9s said:
    Switch 2 availability will probably be the least of our worries if this happens lol
    Click to expand...

    I did say it was a big "What if" but I only mention it because it would be literally the best time for China to try in..decades. USA would be occupied with Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas(+Hezbollah?), World vs. Houthis, Presidential election dividing the country, etc.

    Lugia667 said:
    One thing to note is the article says that shipping costs are actually still lower atm than they were in 2021 an 2022 so take that fwiw
    Click to expand...

    I'm not gonna bother adjusting for before and after covid and inflation. Its a headache but its worth keeping note of.
     
    Amazing thread, OP. Whether or not this ends up being accurate, it’s a really interesting and valuable perspective that doesn’t often come up in forums. Thank you for what you’ve added to the discussion and giving us more to consider from a new perspective. You clearly know what you’re talking about and I appreciate the detailed post and subsequent comments.

    My main uncertainty with the prediction is the two-month period between reveal and release. That seems awfully short, even for Nintendo. You’re right that they are known to be unpredictable and the Switch launch was unprecedented in this way, but I don’t know if I can believe a two-month window for advertising would be enough for them. It’s true that I know nothing about stocks or trading though, I’m mostly just commenting from a Nintendo speculator’s perspective.

    With that being said, I’d love to be wrong. A May release would be amazing. The sooner the better!
     
    Shareholder Chad said:
    I did say it was a big "What if" but I only mention it because it would be literally the best time for China to try in..decades. USA would be occupied with Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas(+Hezbollah?), World vs. Houthis, Presidential election dividing the country, etc.



    I'm not gonna bother adjusting for before and after covid and inflation. Its a headache but its worth keeping note of.
    Click to expand...
    Don't give Disney any ideas!

    But seriously, it is a known taboo on how videogames and politics shouldn't mix but these nightmare scenarios reveal how intertwined they truly are.

    I also wonder why a third Pacific route isn't an option?
     
    Shareholder Chad said:
    @InsaneZero - Original question

    If the red sea becomes a warzone, Yes. If the international community can establish security, No. What happens in the next 4 weeks will be critical in my opinion. The USA and other countries have put their line in the sand as of yesterday but attacks have continued. We'll see what happens. This could also resolve quickly even if it means launching an offensive against the Houthis but with an Iranian warship entering the red sea....well....you could see it could delay any resolution if conflict breaks out.

    Here is a map. Lets focus on the conversation on the Switch 2.

    the-east.png


    So its been confirmed cargo ships are now switching to the red route as seen here in the picture. This has doubled shipping prices for anything going into Europe. So even without full blown conflict, the effects are already taking shape. The blue line is the normal route for shipping that is taken from China and southeast asia to Europe.

    I cannot find a definitive source but logically, anything made in southeast Asia, China, and India are shipped across the PACIFIC ocean to the USA. The nintendo switch is assembled in Vietnam so assuming Nintendo just uses the same logistics plan, it should simply go across the pacific ocean for the Switch 2. Well, prices for freight sea shipping to USA across the pacific have also increased (Why? More demand for that route probably). So shipping in general has gone up significantly.

    Big "What if" here but If China were to pick this year to make a play on Taiwan, Well that could be another massive blow to international maritime shipping. Tensions between Philippines and China aren't great either after some ships ran into each other recently. Nintendo will not launch the switch 2 if this happens. The red sea thing is a maybe. If China/Philippines/Taiwan get on with it, Its over (especially if USA gets involved)

    TLDR: Overall, Lot of what if's here. This might be a "draw your own conclusion thing". If I had to take a guess....I'd say Nintendo delays it once both parties start engaging either other (USA vs. Houthis) and war breaks out otherwise its business as usual (at a higher price)


    Fun Facts:

    • Nintendo’s primary distribution warehouse for USA is located in Groveport, Ohio.
    • Nintendo's primary distribution warehouse for EUR is Großostheim, Germany
    • Nintendo's Primary distribution warehouse for JPN is Kyoto, Japan
    • Consoles are shipped primarly by Sea but in for the Switch launch, They shipped by air to EUR and USA for a month.
    • Freight Sea shipping that typically uses the Red sea has doubled in price. Including shipments to USA.

    Sources:
    Assembly being moved to Vietnam from China
    Switch shipped by Air at launch
    Shipping cost rises for Red sea shipments
    Shipping Lane changes
    Click to expand...
    Nintendo fabs should just cometobrazil.
     
    Out of curiosity OP, which month (Jan/Feb/Mar) in your opinion has the highest probability of a reveal and why?
     
    also we would probably see more delays besides the Switch 2 if it was happening so judge based on that as well
     
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    CalmMind said:
    Don't give Disney any ideas!

    But seriously, it is a known taboo on how videogames and politics shouldn't mix but these nightmare scenarios reveal how intertwined they truly are.

    I also wonder why a third Pacific route isn't an option?
    Click to expand...

    Money. The Africa bend is the cheapest alternative.
     
    Fun thread Chad, thx for creating it! :coffee:

    I can see a reveal of the system in the coming couple months fosho, i.e. in the slot of the first Direct presentation of the year.

    I would be surprised if the actual release were as early as May tho.

    My understanding of Nintendo M.O. is to build marketing hype not just for the system, but the killer app software. Regardless of what the killer app is (hello 3D Mario?), it obv hasn't been revealed yet. IMO they would want ample lead time to let the awesome game percolate into public consciousness and sell the new system.

    The switch ofc had Breath of the Wild to do the talking and immediately underscore the value prop. BOTW had years to build anticipation and excitement following its 2013 reveal.

    For reference, Mario Odyssey enjoyed a 9-month lead-up to its ultimate release (Jan reveal => Oct release).

    On the other hand:

    a) maybe its not a Mario game as the killer app, maybe its Metroid Prime 4? That game has had 5 years now to build some steam

    b) maybe the killer app is ... BOTW again? But 4K. Along with some other 4K-ified friends

    c) maybe Nintendo doesn't give a shiz for any of the loosy-goosy timing strategy I'm on about? Maybe they are confident in releasing the system with the killer app software only needing 3-5 months buildup to market

    ===

    Tangential thought

    Coming from the Totilo-Iwata interview thread, I wonder if there is room for one more og Switch sku? A more portable and cheaper switch lite?

    I dunno if this is possible engineering-wise, but a clamshell could be dope 🦪
    Surely a cheap switch (sub-$200) could sell an additional 15-20 million units post-reveal of the new device! Gotta be hotter than the Lite tho, no disrespect to it.
     
    Slightly off-topic, but as we're having Switch 2 and World Events talk here (and I appreciate the insight!) I'm kinda dreading 2024 - apart from a sweet Switch 2 launch. The international order really is becoming less and less stable - China/Taiwan, Russia/Europe, Middle East, US elections this year potentially making all of that worse...

    Sigh.
     
    manfromthedam said:
    Slightly off-topic, but as we're having Switch 2 and World Events talk here (and I appreciate the insight!) I'm kinda dreading 2024 - apart from a sweet Switch 2 launch. The international order really is becoming less and less stable - China/Taiwan, Russia/Europe, Middle East, US elections this year potentially making all of that worse...

    Sigh.
    Click to expand...
    On top o2024 is forecasted to be the hottest year ever, possibly exceeding the 1,5 degrees in the Paris agreement.
     
    Commenting on my May 2024 prediction and ban
  • Index
    • manfromthedam said:
    Slightly off-topic, but as we're having Switch 2 and World Events talk here (and I appreciate the insight!) I'm kinda dreading 2024 - apart from a sweet Switch 2 launch. The international order really is becoming less and less stable - China/Taiwan, Russia/Europe, Middle East, US elections this year potentially making all of that worse...

    Sigh.
    Click to expand...

    There is an extreme risk of negative events for 2024. I think the appropriate way to handle the anxiety and worry in your gut is to prepare for the worst (within reason) and hope for the best. Focus on your inner circle and environments you participate in and spread positive vibes. Buy an active or retired serviceman or servicewoman a coffee. Help out a neighbor in need. Be GOOD to your fellow humans regardless of religion, politics, etc., Donate money to a cause you are passionate about. Give your own financial situation some extra attention (Pay debts, save money), etc.

    goombaicebro said:
    uncertainty in the financial market? 🤔

    @Shareholder Chad
    Click to expand...

    If you are referring to some of my tweets, Then yes the macro climate is at high risk due to the obvious situations going on around the world.

    amiigo said:
    Why was Chad banned? Did he request it?
    Click to expand...

    I commented on this in the other thread but Ill put it here too. I made a boneheaded comment. I also mention why I am dropping my May 2024 prediction.

    famiboards.com

    Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

    I don't know - the Switch does have a huge install base, and while I have frequently pointed out that that doesn't mean as much as people think (the people who buy the most games are also the people who buy consoles day one, which is why cross-gen games tend to sell about 70% of their copies on...
    famiboards.com famiboards.com
     
  • Index
    • I got a question. When should we start looking for signs when the market starts leaning towards announcement or something else? I know the markets have been on the rise for a while but I have noticed some small dips lately.
     
    Shareholder Chad said:
    There is an extreme risk of negative events for 2024. I think the appropriate way to handle the anxiety and worry in your gut is to prepare for the worst (within reason) and hope for the best. Focus on your inner circle and environments you participate in and spread positive vibes. Buy an active or retired serviceman or servicewoman a coffee. Help out a neighbor in need. Be GOOD to your fellow humans regardless of religion, politics, etc., Donate money to a cause you are passionate about. Give your own financial situation some extra attention (Pay debts, save money), etc.
    Click to expand...
    Not surprised someone who self identifies as a Chad and role plays at being a stonks guru has child's understanding of the world.
     
    carbvan said:
    I really don't get why you'd double down on this. Plenty of people know his online persona ain't exactly serious, and when asked he has explicitly said so. You really just come off as really mean spirited for no reason.
    Click to expand...
    Not being serious does not excuse being a toxic investment bro who is flippant about war and who's advice for making the world a better place is buying coffee for fascists.
     
    What's really gonna stop DeSantis and his buddies from taking healthcare away from trans people is by adding a "please". Good positive vibes towards the Republicans who believe I am part of a shadowy cabal will save the queers

    My advice for peace; buy a coffee for the people who want you shot

    Peace and love, peace and love~
     
    Please refrain from characterizing entire complex groups of people, in this case veterans, as fascists and wholesale condemning all of them equally. - meatbag, xghost777, Tangerine Cookie, Dardan Sandiego, Party Sklar, big lantern ghost
    Ricimer said:
    Saying to be good and buy a retired veteran a coffee is supporting fascists? What?
    Click to expand...
    One, yeag, fuck veterans and fuck the US military industrial complex.
    Two, he also said to be nice to them regardless of their politics. People who act like a person politics don't matter or are some minor thing and we should just be nice to one another is at best an fascist apologist
     
    Please be mindful of your use of pronouns. Whether intended or not, using "they" for people who have different preferred pronouns can be seen as a case of intentional misgendering. - Dardan Sandiego, xghost777, big lantern ghost, meatbag
    Ricimer said:
    Saying to be good and buy a retired veteran a coffee is supporting fascists? What?
    Click to expand...

    They seem to indicate that as someone who is involved in the most disgusting form of capitalism (IE Stocks) is your stereotypical racist bastard. That and something I said that shouldn't have been said and did not represent my views.

    I get it and in a less severe way I deserve it. Let me be clear though, I aim to use my position to help protect rights for the LGTBQ+ community that are often and currently under the attack by government officials. I do partake in the source of evil (capitalism) but I wish to use it and create positive outcomes in my community. I also aim to not attack people regardless of who they are.

    Raccoon said:
    my apologies to @Shareholder Chad for indirectly destroying his famiboards account
    Click to expand...

    Yea I do not think I am welcome here honestly. I get it though.
     
    Phosphorescent Skeleton said:
    Not being serious does not excuse being a toxic investment bro who is flippant about war and who's advice for making the world a better place is buying coffee for fascists.
    Click to expand...
    You're being a bit goofy. What do you expect a random dude to do on a Nintendo forum when it comes to the current worlds political landscape? Focusing on doing good locally and your local community is all around good advice? It's a lot easier to make local changes and see changes in real time there. People who go into the military aren't inherently fascists, either. I sure as hell don't see eye to eye with my family who have entered the service, and I'm ignoring all sorts of emails from the government trying to get me to join the military or work on defense weapons projects for them (just graduated college and they're aiming hard for me lol), but buying a retired vet a coffee just seems like something harmless to spread goodwill in your local community.
     
    Is that the coward's "they" I see? I see Phos has lost the privilege of being gendered correctly. Maybe she should have bought Chad a coffee first
     
    being nice to everyone regardless of politics would be virtuous in a society rid of bigotry and hatred

    imagine telling your barista to kill himself because he believes in lowering tariffs or some shit, that would be crazy

    but we obviously don't so the sentiment falls flat. sorry shareholder chad but to an extent I'm with the angry mob on this one, don't buy racist people coffee

    (not to say that every person who has served in their country's military is racist)

    ((iirc that would imply every korean dude is racist))
     
    Ricimer said:
    I don't think it's good to demonize and generalize like that.
    Click to expand...
    Won't somebody please think of one of the most evil and destructive forces in the world today? Why must we demonize them?
    It's extremely naïve to think that the way to progress is being nice to the oppressor and that the way to defeat evil is to drink from its poison well.
     
    Ricimer said:
    I don't think he intended to misgender anyone at all? They is a neutral way to refer to someone. This just seems like assuming the absolute worst intentions from his posts.
    Click to expand...
    I'm not a they, my pronouns are right there. There's absolutely no reason to use neutral pronouns when referring to me
     
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    Ricimer said:
    I don't think he intended to misgender anyone at all? They is a neutral way to refer to someone. This just seems like assuming the absolute worst intentions from his posts.
    Click to expand...

    Phos' pronouns are literally listed on each of her posts. They/them is not neutral when you can see that person's pronouns; misgendering is still misgendering. How common it is for the queer "ally" to use "they/them" for trans women who disagree with them... it's the polite, "progressive" way of misgendering, made for the liberal "ally".
     
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