Discussion Nintendo share/stock history, Analysis, and how it could relate to the Switch 2

[Shareholder Chad]

You think it might get delayed?

@InsaneZero - Original question

If the red sea becomes a warzone, Yes. If the international community can establish security, No. What happens in the next 4 weeks will be critical in my opinion. The USA and other countries have put their line in the sand as of yesterday but attacks have continued. We'll see what happens. This could also resolve quickly even if it means launching an offensive against the Houthis but with an Iranian warship entering the red sea....well....you could see it could delay any resolution if conflict breaks out.

Here is a map. Lets focus on the conversation on the Switch 2.

So its been confirmed cargo ships are now switching to the red route as seen here in the picture. This has doubled shipping prices for anything going into Europe. So even without full blown conflict, the effects are already taking shape. The blue line is the normal route for shipping that is taken from China and southeast asia to Europe.

I cannot find a definitive source but logically, anything made in southeast Asia, China, and India are shipped across the PACIFIC ocean to the USA. The nintendo switch is assembled in Vietnam so assuming Nintendo just uses the same logistics plan, it should simply go across the pacific ocean for the Switch 2. Well, prices for freight sea shipping to USA across the pacific have also increased (Why? More demand for that route probably). So shipping in general has gone up significantly.

Big "What if" here but If China were to pick this year to make a play on Taiwan, Well that could be another massive blow to international maritime shipping. Tensions between Philippines and China aren't great either after some ships ran into each other recently. Nintendo will not launch the switch 2 if this happens. The red sea thing is a maybe. If China/Philippines/Taiwan get on with it, Its over (especially if USA gets involved)

TLDR: Overall, Lot of what if's here. This might be a "draw your own conclusion thing". If I had to take a guess....I'd say Nintendo delays it once both parties start engaging either other (USA vs. Houthis) and war breaks out otherwise its business as usual (at a higher price)


Fun Facts:

• Nintendo’s primary distribution warehouse for USA is located in Groveport, Ohio.
• Nintendo's primary distribution warehouse for EUR is Großostheim, Germany
• Nintendo's Primary distribution warehouse for JPN is Kyoto, Japan
• Consoles are shipped primarly by Sea but in for the Switch launch, They shipped by air to EUR and USA for a month.
• Freight Sea shipping that typically uses the Red sea has doubled in price. Including shipments to USA.

Sources:
Assembly being moved to Vietnam from China
Switch shipped by Air at launch
Shipping cost rises for Red sea shipments
Shipping Lane changes

 

[Shareholder Chad]

Slightly off-topic, but as we're having Switch 2 and World Events talk here (and I appreciate the insight!) I'm kinda dreading 2024 - apart from a sweet Switch 2 launch. The international order really is becoming less and less stable - China/Taiwan, Russia/Europe, Middle East, US elections this year potentially making all of that worse...

Sigh.

There is an extreme risk of negative events for 2024. I think the appropriate way to handle the anxiety and worry in your gut is to prepare for the worst (within reason) and hope for the best. Focus on your inner circle and environments you participate in and spread positive vibes. Buy an active or retired serviceman or servicewoman a coffee. Help out a neighbor in need. Be GOOD to your fellow humans regardless of religion, politics, etc., Donate money to a cause you are passionate about. Give your own financial situation some extra attention (Pay debts, save money), etc.

uncertainty in the financial market?

@Shareholder Chad

If you are referring to some of my tweets, Then yes the macro climate is at high risk due to the obvious situations going on around the world.

Why was Chad banned? Did he request it?

I commented on this in the other thread but Ill put it here too. I made a boneheaded comment. I also mention why I am dropping my May 2024 prediction.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I don't know - the Switch does have a huge install base, and while I have frequently pointed out that that doesn't mean as much as people think (the people who buy the most games are also the people who buy consoles day one, which is why cross-gen games tend to sell about 70% of their copies on...

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