Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
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Sometimes data needs to be observed a few times before meaningful theories that ultimately end up correct can be crafted. You are caught up on people making a prediction or theory and being wrong. That is beautiful in and of itself. Celebrate and encourage the pursuit of knowledge gained instead of being a sarcastic negative person just because you don't like the result or are tired of hearing it.
Again, I accept all skepticism, constructive criticism, and disagreements but not bad attitudes toward a genuine attempt at exchanging ideas/theories/opinions.
I work in econometrics mostly so I’m mostly just frustrated at the abysmal, extremely low n methodology that has backed up this theory and customs theory and tape out theory and amiibo restock theory.
It’s pretty standard conspiracy pattern seeking methodology where opposing data isn’t searched for, but it’s over something so minor and has failed so frequently and so consistently on this topic that I’m dismayed this pattern seeking methodology continues to be popular among Switch 2 speculators.
From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
Dude did you seriously just come in here to subtweet about the thread you're still banned from?I work in econometrics mostly so I’m mostly just frustrated at the abysmal, extremely low n methodology that has backed up this theory and customs theory and tape out theory and amiibo restock theory.
It’s pretty standard conspiracy pattern seeking methodology where opposing data isn’t searched for, but it’s over something so minor and has failed so frequently and so consistently on this topic that I’m dismayed this pattern seeking methodology continues to be popular among Switch 2 speculators.
If that is true then we should speaking the same language here. My strategies are completely based in patterns, numbers, and percentages. You should know what the Fibonacci sequence is and why I use it. In order to make the data more understandable and presentable, I did not include Fib ratio's for each move that happened before an announcement but they share similarities as far as their movements on certain Fib percentages. My theory isn't completely based on "oh look, heres a line going upward". There are deeper theorems I've used to legitimize and alter my theory.
To go further, Econometrics is ultimately what brought about Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci sequence, Harmonic pattern trading, and much much more. All of which I employ in my career.
You keep criticizing without offering ANY counter evidence or reasoning and implying our methods are "abysmal". It is easy as hell to criticize others' work without offering specific counter points or offering your own theories while we are out here at least attempting to have fun and exchange ideas/theories. So either post them or please keep your "frustrations" to yourself.
whatUhhhhh
I constantly post why this methodology is bad, but if you want it in bullet point form.
1. You have almost no data points
2. You have not normalized the stock movement relative to peer stocks
3. You only specifically start this analysis AFTER the DS announcement because it clearly doesn’t fit even slightly.
4. You do not look for spikes that failed to precede a hardware announcement
I hope this is a bit and not actually your day job.
believe it or not usual stock cycle always has been buy on news then sell on fact. which mean stock will skyrocket when it existence is confirmed and tanked immediately after announcedHopefully when the switch 2 is announced the line will go up
Hi, this is the first I'm hearing of this. Are you an insider with honest, trustworthy sources and information?* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Uhhhhh
I constantly post why this methodology is bad, but if you want it in bullet point form.
1. You have almost no data points
2. You have not normalized the stock movement relative to peer stocks
3. You only specifically start this analysis AFTER the DS announcement because it clearly doesn’t fit even slightly.
4. You do not look for spikes that failed to precede a hardware announcement
I hope this is a bit and not actually your day job.
@Shareholder Chad I would really like to know when was it when you met Iwata, if you could elaborate a little bit on that, must have been an amazing moment for sure.
They are not Sony, but they might be Nintendo. Following the Switch timeline, they could announce it as late as January 18 and it would be out before June.This thing won’t come before june. They need time to show and market new game. Nintendo will never release a new console without marketing to death a new game that shows what the system can do. They are not Sony.
Seems stretching for a mismatch, when it can as easily be read "Customs data means H1 2024 release!" to "Stock surge also indicates H1 2024 release!".From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
Amazing insights, thanks for this!Back 2011, I was with a mentor of mine (He was "Big money" and had contacts) in Japan and we stopped by multiple Japanese businesses talking with finance folk. When we arrived at Nintendo we got a quick little tour and in one of the business rooms, Iwata and some other guys stopped by and shook our hands (USA thing) and we did the bow (Japan thing). Then he left. I did get the translator to tell him he was the coolest CEO ever. It was basically nothing but very cool. Back then, there were still fears of the 2008 GFC not being over. Companies were nervous and more willing to communicate with shareholders. I doubt anything like that is possible in current times.
The Wii-U did not and while I was a mere rookie in this game at the time, I do remember project cafe rumors being mocked and belittled before even the official announcement.
No offence, It just makes me wonder what that minimal secret sauce could be for the whole stock rising, when the Wii U's/project café thing was being mocked and belittled since that was also a little step from Wii's era.Edit: Just to add, I think the tight window might make sense when its revealed. Theres a good possibility that the Switch 2 is marketed as "just an upgrade" and works in conjunction with Switch 1. Meaning the store is the same, interface is similar, full backwards compatibility, with only a minimal secret sauce feature.
I do have a small question, as I noticed a drop in the chart in the Switch lifespan between 2018 and 2019. I wonder what that was all about, since that was the year Smash Ultimate was announced, that even got a whole E3 part of it, back then.
Seeing the present day go up like this, seems to be good news, albeit it's just predictions. There is a shareholders meeting on February 6th, and people assuming that there will be a Nintendo Direct in Jan/Feb, wouldn't it be more likely to have the teaser trailer out in january around the week of 22th or 29th, so shareholders can soak in before the meeting? And would there even be a Direct between the teaser and reveal in march? I don't see a point in marketing Switch games that are mostly remakes, if a new system is announced, even tho it would have the backwards compatibility.
And then my last question. You say you are not an insider, and I believe you, but you also said that before the Switch announcement you heard of Nintendo's plan of getting the console and handheld divisions combined. So my question is if you have heard anything for the new generation, that the stocks are rising. Since you said
No offence, It just makes me wonder what that minimal secret sauce could be for the whole stock rising, when the Wii U's/project café thing was being mocked and belittled since that was also a little step from Wii's era.
Watch as people just ignores the part in boldNothing I'd consider even remotely true. I really only pay attention to things that get circulated by multiple different "groups" of shareholders and are accompanied by stock movements. For the Switch 2, Only thing that fits the bill is May 2024 release part. I guess one dark horse thing I've heard circulated was Nintendo positioning themselves back to a two platform strategy but not Handheld vs. Console but rather Hybrid vs. AR/VR. I consider this bullshit but very very cool if it happens.
I'm not being cheeky either, Its akin to your weird uncle that works across the street from nintendo saying he saw someone in the window playing VR mario. lol . Very likely bullshit but just an example of the weird stuff Wall street talks about.
Awfully cynical take and a belittling way to try and point out the flaws in this post, don't you think?Let me get this straight...
- OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this.
- OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
- OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
I know everyone wants new info but... there's nothing here
Ignoring the blatant rudeness of several aspects of this post, let's civilly bring up some counterpoints. Note: I'm not an expert, but I am slowly learning the ins and outs of this stuff through my university experience. I'm not qualified to talk about it as my own opinion, but I can at least understand and infer a lot of stuff from this post.Let me get this straight...
- OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this.
- OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
- OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
I know everyone wants new info but... there's nothing here
Technically this theory was pointing towards "How soon" the reveal is. Everyone knows that a reveal is happening at some point in the next year, that much is kinda clear, but the examples provided (namely the Wii and Switch) point to something in the next 6 months at the highest. Besides, a lot of the more "credible sources" are very very very vague. If nothing else, it adds to the credibility of the "soon" rumors. There's nothing wrong with having additional rumors/theories that add credibility to other rumors. That's... kind of how thumbtack & string theories are made. Many rumors and theories pairing together.
- OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this
Shareholder Chad has mentioned that he has his own personal views on it, and that's completely fine. Like... I'm sorry, but this just seems a tad rude. A man has his views outside of trading. Also, other traders can hear tidbits from semi-official sources of their own and believe in rumors that they learned of their own. That's actually a rather common thing. What did Shareholder Chad say once... "Buy the rumors, sell the news"?
- OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
If the previous post was slightly rude, this was just blatantly an insult. Someone can have their views towards a company influenced by the money they have in it, that's completely fine. He's also completely capable of having a conversation without mentioning it, and a lot of the time he does mention it... it's insightful and very interesting, hence this post in the first place.
- OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
Technically this theory was pointing towards "How soon" the reveal is. Everyone knows that a reveal is happening at some point in the next year, that much is kinda clear, but the examples provided (namely the Wii and Switch) point to something in the next 6 months at the highest. Besides, a lot of the more "credible sources" are very very very vague. If nothing else, it adds to the credibility of the "soon" rumors. There's nothing wrong with having additional rumors/theories that add credibility to other rumors. That's... kind of how thumbtack & string theories are made. Many rumors and theories pairing together.
OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
I can see Nintendo attempting VR/AR, but through research and development to see how they can implement this in their consoles,
Watch as people just ignores the part in bold
BTW interesting post
Yeah, like someone else mentioned in this thread or another one: investors/rich are not always a savvy bunchI will admit I do dial it up for the fun and laughs. It's not a "look at me, I'm cool" thing but rather meant as a character archetype thing. Its taking what I truely am and just cranking it up to 10.
I'd love to see them go in on VR/AR however not at the cost of staying as a one platform company. Its too perfect and is working out way too well for them to put out a VR device as a standalone product. It just doesn't make any sense. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in my post at all but I wanted to articulate the stupid crap wall street can talk about it in regards to Nintendo. At least as a counterpoint against my own beliefs regarding a May release. I'd rather be open and truthful rather than omit the times when this market angle is simply false. Its no different than a scoop being wrong with a real insider, It happens. Nothing is 100%.
However, I will absolutely defend the idea that it (Wall street talks and stock movements) does have a place in speculation talks as a legitimate source.
That's true. You're not the first to mention shareholder meetings aren't necessarily for hardware or software.It depends on how they want to market it. I think what you suggested makes sense but Nintendo is a wild card. The shareholders meeting is ultimately about performance review (sales) and business strategy (Remember the Blue ocean speech?, Smartphone partnership?, Leveraging IP's?). Not necessarily hardware or software.
I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.
Judging by GameFreak’s handling of Pokemon between console generations, I’m expecting next Pokemon game to be only in Switch 1, but compatible with the next gen because of BC.That's true. You're not the first to mention shareholder meetings aren't necessarily for hardware or software.
But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.
And I still keep thinking that the new Pokemon game on Pokemon day is gonna be on Switch 2, instead of Switch, since Scarlet/Violet ended last month, and no new pokemon game is announced. I think it would be such a system seller for the new device, especially with what you heard that it may release in late May, that a pokemon game can buff up the sales somewhere in october/november
But that's my whole view on it, haha.
But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.
I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.
A Nintendo Direct Mini in January.
Nintendo directs in January aren't common, but they've happened in the past and similar events have happened around the same time. This would get the remaining games dates for the first-half of the year while also knocking out the remaining third-party titles they have to show. That frees up a lot of February time for remaining stuff for late-Feb and March. A Pokemon Presents could also happen before or during the Lunar New Year break, and that frees up late-Feb for a Switch 2 reveal. Voila, simple as.
Granted, that's just a theory, but it's something that could solve that problem.
Oh that's certainly a possibility, I'd give you that. But then again, if they give out the reveal trailer in january, and have a small 1 month gap between an reveal event, people/general audience can settle/soak in that news, while if they give out the trailer in late february, and having a March event, things might get too quick. News of a reveal trailer does need to spread out properly in that regard.I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.
A Nintendo Direct Mini in January.
Nintendo directs in January aren't common, but they've happened in the past and similar events have happened around the same time. This would get the remaining games dates for the first-half of the year while also knocking out the remaining third-party titles they have to show. That frees up a lot of February time for remaining stuff for late-Feb and March. A Pokemon Presents could also happen before or during the Lunar New Year break, and that frees up late-Feb for a Switch 2 reveal. Voila, simple as.
Granted, that's just a theory, but it's something that could solve that problem.
That is actually a fair point. Twitter Direct Mk. II les go!!It isn't full and it isn't hard if Nintendo simply tweets (or "X's" or w/e the hell is called these days) some of these announcements. I fully expect the "teaser" of switch 2 to be a tweet. Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion 2 HD release dates can all be tweets. Hell, I do not think a Direct or Direct Mini is even needed at this point. The runway is full on clear for the Switch 2 express to fly by in March and land in May.
No real "perfect" argument to be made here. Lots of possibilities that all equally have a chance of not happening.Oh that's certainly a possibility, I'd give you that. But then again, if they give out the reveal trailer in january, and have a small 1 month gap between an reveal event, people/general audience can settle/soak in that news, while if they give out the trailer in late february, and having a March event, things might get too quick. News of a reveal trailer does need to spread out properly in that regard.
I know what you mean, but if you look at what pattern gamefreak gives with their games, it would imply the next pokemon game is a Switch 2 game.Judging by GameFreak’s handling of Pokemon between console generations, I’m expecting next Pokemon game to be only in Switch 1, but compatible with the next gen because of BC.
That said, there are several Pokemon content that the OG Switch can still get:
• B/W 3
• Legends Unova
• Legends Celebii
• Let’s Go Johto
damn, this overall insightful and interesting post really ruffled some feathers! who knew stock theorizing would bring out the haters.
Fantastic post op! I was following what some of what you were saying in the console thread a few weeks back about May being a possibility and have been intrigued ever since. You raise a good case! As someone who doesn’t know the first thing about stocks or trading, I appreciate how you broke things down in an easy to understand way.
Personally, I still feel like September – October is the most likely scenario, but I’ll be very happy if we get it in May!
Agree. Nintendo sits in a better position for VR than both Sony and MS. Because:Absolutely amazing thread, really informational even for the ones who don't understand a lot about stock and it's market. I do agree with you, it definetely seems like Nintendo has been gearing up towards something in the middle of the year and they're certainly working towards it. I guess it is already a thing that their investors are curious to see what they will do to follow up the Switch (as it is naturally declining in sales after many years), i doubt Nintendo will take much more time to react.
I think the AR/VR thing may not be too farfetched, but i don't think Nintendo might jump the gun yet, though, i'm not sure. There's definetely some sort of growing market for it, as mobile technology sees gigantic jumps (compare 2018~2020 notebooks to all these 2023 super slim notebooks and it's crazy what they can do with integrated/handheld tech), its production price eases and the idea of more affordable, easier to work/produce VR tech becomes more and more of a possibility. The entire Nintendo Labo VR Kit always seemed to me as Nintendo experimenting with the idea of it and what they could do in that regard (and hey, for an additional cardboard peripheral, it went very decently!). From the Virtual Boy, to the 3DS AR Cards to the entire Nintendo Labo set of games, maybe even including some other AR ventures (Pokémon GO, etc) they sure do take huge interest in it. People look at Apple's attempts in VR and laugh at it, and although i can't say i think the world needs VR right now, i absolutely see it becoming a thing in the near future. Guess Nintendo might be putting some cards up their sleeves with that.
Just speculation on my part. Given the state of things, I think a VR proposition could work for Nintendo more or less like this:I'd love to see them go in on VR/AR however not at the cost of staying as a one platform company. Its too perfect and is working out way too well for them to put out a VR device as a standalone product. It just doesn't make any sense. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in my post at all but I wanted to articulate the stupid crap wall street can talk about it in regards to Nintendo. At least as a counterpoint against my own beliefs regarding a May release. I'd rather be open and truthful rather than omit the times when this market angle is simply false. Its no different than a scoop being wrong with a real insider, It happens. Nothing is 100%.
Oh no. Flashbacks to Amiibos coming out during the shipyard strikes. At least Nintendo has some recent experience adjusting their packaging and changing shipping plans when needed.I know that this is slightly tangential, but I did recall that Shareholder Chad did consider the Red Sea attacks was a significant risk factor. I didn't fully realize the ramifications of the situation until Perun's video on the topic recently. I highly recommend everyone watching it in full, but the tl;dw version of it is that shipping is going to get extremely risky with the rapid evolution of weapons that can attack vital shipping chokepoints cost effectively. Nintendo is still operating in the same planet as everyone else is so they wouldn't be immune to these risks.
Shareholder Chad - from your perspective as an investor, do you think that Nintendo is able to address or mitigate these risks effectively? And if so, what possible impacts would such measures have in their operations that could propagate to the consumer?
I know that this is slightly tangential, but I did recall that Shareholder Chad did consider the Red Sea attacks was a significant risk factor. I didn't fully realize the ramifications of the situation until Perun's video on the topic recently. I highly recommend everyone watching it in full, but the tl;dw version of it is that shipping is going to get extremely risky with the rapid evolution of weapons that can attack vital shipping chokepoints cost effectively. Nintendo is still operating in the same planet as everyone else is so they wouldn't be immune to these risks.
Shareholder Chad - from your perspective as an investor, do you think that Nintendo is able to address or mitigate these risks effectively? And if so, what possible impacts would such measures have in their operations that could propagate to the consumer?
Oh no. Flashbacks to Amiibos coming out during the shipyard strikes. At least Nintendo has some recent experience adjusting their packaging and changing shipping plans when needed.
Because numbers are a lie fed to us by big math.why hasn't this magical thread exploded.
Its the most beautiful post EVER!
why hasn't this magical thread exploded.
Its the most beautiful post EVER!