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Discussion Nintendo share/stock history, Analysis, and how it could relate to the Switch 2

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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
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Sometimes data needs to be observed a few times before meaningful theories that ultimately end up correct can be crafted. You are caught up on people making a prediction or theory and being wrong. That is beautiful in and of itself. Celebrate and encourage the pursuit of knowledge gained instead of being a sarcastic negative person just because you don't like the result or are tired of hearing it.

Again, I accept all skepticism, constructive criticism, and disagreements but not bad attitudes toward a genuine attempt at exchanging ideas/theories/opinions.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Sometimes data needs to be observed a few times before meaningful theories that ultimately end up correct can be crafted. You are caught up on people making a prediction or theory and being wrong. That is beautiful in and of itself. Celebrate and encourage the pursuit of knowledge gained instead of being a sarcastic negative person just because you don't like the result or are tired of hearing it.

Again, I accept all skepticism, constructive criticism, and disagreements but not bad attitudes toward a genuine attempt at exchanging ideas/theories/opinions.
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I work in econometrics mostly so I’m mostly just frustrated at the abysmal, extremely low n methodology that has backed up this theory and customs theory and tape out theory and amiibo restock theory.

It’s pretty standard conspiracy pattern seeking methodology where opposing data isn’t searched for, but it’s over something so minor and has failed so frequently and so consistently on this topic that I’m dismayed this pattern seeking methodology continues to be popular among Switch 2 speculators.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I work in econometrics mostly so I’m mostly just frustrated at the abysmal, extremely low n methodology that has backed up this theory and customs theory and tape out theory and amiibo restock theory.

It’s pretty standard conspiracy pattern seeking methodology where opposing data isn’t searched for, but it’s over something so minor and has failed so frequently and so consistently on this topic that I’m dismayed this pattern seeking methodology continues to be popular among Switch 2 speculators.
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If that is true then we should speaking the same language here. My strategies are completely based in patterns, numbers, and percentages. You should know what the Fibonacci sequence is and why I use it. In order to make the data more understandable and presentable, I did not include Fib ratio's for each move that happened before an announcement but they share similarities as far as their movements on certain Fib percentages. My theory isn't completely based on "oh look, heres a line going upward". There are deeper theorems I've used to legitimize and alter my theory.

To go further, Econometrics is ultimately what brought about Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci sequence, Harmonic pattern trading, and much much more. All of which I employ in my career.

You keep criticizing without offering ANY counter evidence or reasoning and implying our methods are "abysmal". It is easy as hell to criticize others' work without offering specific counter points or offering your own theories while we are out here at least attempting to have fun and exchange ideas/theories. So either post them or please keep your "frustrations" to yourself.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
Click to expand...
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I work in econometrics mostly so I’m mostly just frustrated at the abysmal, extremely low n methodology that has backed up this theory and customs theory and tape out theory and amiibo restock theory.

It’s pretty standard conspiracy pattern seeking methodology where opposing data isn’t searched for, but it’s over something so minor and has failed so frequently and so consistently on this topic that I’m dismayed this pattern seeking methodology continues to be popular among Switch 2 speculators.
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Dude did you seriously just come in here to subtweet about the thread you're still banned from?
 
You can disagree with someone without dipping into insults. For a history of aggression you are being permanently threadbanned. -xghost777, meatbag, Tangerine Cookie
Shareholder Chad said:
If that is true then we should speaking the same language here. My strategies are completely based in patterns, numbers, and percentages. You should know what the Fibonacci sequence is and why I use it. In order to make the data more understandable and presentable, I did not include Fib ratio's for each move that happened before an announcement but they share similarities as far as their movements on certain Fib percentages. My theory isn't completely based on "oh look, heres a line going upward". There are deeper theorems I've used to legitimize and alter my theory.

To go further, Econometrics is ultimately what brought about Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci sequence, Harmonic pattern trading, and much much more. All of which I employ in my career.

You keep criticizing without offering ANY counter evidence or reasoning and implying our methods are "abysmal". It is easy as hell to criticize others' work without offering specific counter points or offering your own theories while we are out here at least attempting to have fun and exchange ideas/theories. So either post them or please keep your "frustrations" to yourself.
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Uhhhhh

I constantly post why this methodology is bad, but if you want it in bullet point form.

1. You have almost no data points
2. You have not normalized the stock movement relative to peer stocks
3. You only specifically start this analysis AFTER the DS announcement because it clearly doesn’t fit even slightly.
4. You do not look for spikes that failed to precede a hardware announcement

I hope this is a bit and not actually your day job.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Uhhhhh

I constantly post why this methodology is bad, but if you want it in bullet point form.

1. You have almost no data points
2. You have not normalized the stock movement relative to peer stocks
3. You only specifically start this analysis AFTER the DS announcement because it clearly doesn’t fit even slightly.
4. You do not look for spikes that failed to precede a hardware announcement

I hope this is a bit and not actually your day job.
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what
 
Spyder said:
Hopefully when the switch 2 is announced the line will go up
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believe it or not usual stock cycle always has been buy on news then sell on fact. which mean stock will skyrocket when it existence is confirmed and tanked immediately after announced
 
Thank you for this. I’m also somebody that clearly likes Nintendo and I too bought some shares of it. It was one of the first stocks I bought individually and it was a little before the Wii U launch. Fortunately, I followed things a lot more closely after the launch and learned a lot about how Nintendo tends to handle their finances and how their stock price can fluctuate, sometimes wildly….I also bought some AMD, so things worked out.

There are times you can point to some large spikes and realize they’re undeserved, like when they announced “entering the Chinese markets” and the stock shot up despite the news not being nearly as impactful to their bottom line if you just looked even a tiny bit into it. But when that happens there’s a clear headline and reaction.

I used to follow the stock more closely and did well buying and selling on news like that, but that was when I didn’t have a full time job and now I just take a long view. They have a solid, profitable business that is clearly expanding. There are no signs they are over-reaching, the movie was a huge success, the theme park is popular, etc. Their stock has gone up over the years, but I think long term there is reason to think it could do much better and I believe people are downplaying how well their expansion is going.

Now bearing all that in mind, when I saw how much it went up recently, all I could think was, “this is absolutely not that and I have no idea why it just went up so much”. Usually there’s a related headline or some news.

This doesn’t mean there’s a Switch 2 announcement coming soon or not. Maybe it’s just that some people have convinced themselves it will happen, or maybe it’s some other completely different news being talked about in smaller circles. But it’s definitely a spike worth noting.

And don’t get me started on “GameStop day”…
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Uhhhhh

I constantly post why this methodology is bad, but if you want it in bullet point form.

1. You have almost no data points
2. You have not normalized the stock movement relative to peer stocks
3. You only specifically start this analysis AFTER the DS announcement because it clearly doesn’t fit even slightly.
4. You do not look for spikes that failed to precede a hardware announcement

I hope this is a bit and not actually your day job.
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Well, You will be the first person I ignore on this website but in fairness, Lets go through your points.

1. I have over 100 supporting this theory but decided only to focus on recent Nintendo history. Specifically the time I was active and could provide context. See #4 for more on this.
2. I addressed this in the Q&A. Stocks are a red light/green light situation. Once the green light is on, Investors pile into stocks but not all of them. They may skip Nvidia this go around and pile into Apple and Microsoft. Then the red light happens and only one sells off. This rotation keeps happening and allows the individual stocks to look similar to the overall market. The small little details is where this theory is found. Your asking for it be "adjusted" to the overall broader market (S&P500) and you'll find that its nearly always corelated. For every stock.
3. What? Did you even read the post?
4. I mentioned the Wii-U as a failure point. This post was not meant to be a scientific document 200 pages long that bored everyone to death. It was meant as a quick magazine article that says " hey, look at this interesting thing". I'm not sure why you expect the world to conform to your personal standards. We are a fanboard my guy. Lighten up and have some fun.

LukasManak22 said:
@Shareholder Chad I would really like to know when was it when you met Iwata, if you could elaborate a little bit on that, must have been an amazing moment for sure.
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Back 2011, I was with a mentor of mine (He was "Big money" and had contacts) in Japan and we stopped by multiple Japanese businesses talking with finance folk. When we arrived at Nintendo we got a quick little tour and in one of the business rooms, Iwata and some other guys stopped by and shook our hands (USA thing) and we did the bow (Japan thing). Then he left. I did get the translator to tell him he was the coolest CEO ever. It was basically nothing but very cool. Back then, there were still fears of the 2008 GFC not being over. Companies were nervous and more willing to communicate with shareholders. I doubt anything like that is possible in current times.
 
Notsowise said:
This thing won’t come before june. They need time to show and market new game. Nintendo will never release a new console without marketing to death a new game that shows what the system can do. They are not Sony.
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They are not Sony, but they might be Nintendo. Following the Switch timeline, they could announce it as late as January 18 and it would be out before June.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
From “Tapeout being early 2022 means early 2023 release!" to "Customs data means early 2024 release!" to "Stock surge must be based on insider trading that means mid 2024 release!"
Click to expand...
Seems stretching for a mismatch, when it can as easily be read "Customs data means H1 2024 release!" to "Stock surge also indicates H1 2024 release!".
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Back 2011, I was with a mentor of mine (He was "Big money" and had contacts) in Japan and we stopped by multiple Japanese businesses talking with finance folk. When we arrived at Nintendo we got a quick little tour and in one of the business rooms, Iwata and some other guys stopped by and shook our hands (USA thing) and we did the bow (Japan thing). Then he left. I did get the translator to tell him he was the coolest CEO ever. It was basically nothing but very cool. Back then, there were still fears of the 2008 GFC not being over. Companies were nervous and more willing to communicate with shareholders. I doubt anything like that is possible in current times.
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Amazing insights, thanks for this!
 
First of all, I want to let you know I didn't have much time reading it on my phone due to New Years eve. But now I did read your whole post @Shareholder Chad Not just the TLDR stuff. I do not invest or other kind of stuff like you or others do, but I was quite fascinated reading all you had to say. I must say I even smiled at moments.

I do have a small question, as I noticed a drop in the chart in the Switch lifespan between 2018 and 2019. I wonder what that was all about, since that was the year Smash Ultimate was announced, that even got a whole E3 part of it, back then.

Seeing the present day go up like this, seems to be good news, albeit it's just predictions. There is a shareholders meeting on February 6th, and people assuming that there will be a Nintendo Direct in Jan/Feb, wouldn't it be more likely to have the teaser trailer out in january around the week of 22th or 29th, so shareholders can soak in before the meeting? And would there even be a Direct between the teaser and reveal in march? I don't see a point in marketing Switch games that are mostly remakes, if a new system is announced, even tho it would have the backwards compatibility.

And then my last question. You say you are not an insider, and I believe you, but you also said that before the Switch announcement you heard of Nintendo's plan of getting the console and handheld divisions combined. So my question is if you have heard anything for the new generation, that the stocks are rising. Since you said
Shareholder Chad said:
The Wii-U did not and while I was a mere rookie in this game at the time, I do remember project cafe rumors being mocked and belittled before even the official announcement.
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Shareholder Chad said:
Edit: Just to add, I think the tight window might make sense when its revealed. Theres a good possibility that the Switch 2 is marketed as "just an upgrade" and works in conjunction with Switch 1. Meaning the store is the same, interface is similar, full backwards compatibility, with only a minimal secret sauce feature.
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No offence, It just makes me wonder what that minimal secret sauce could be for the whole stock rising, when the Wii U's/project café thing was being mocked and belittled since that was also a little step from Wii's era.
 
Thanks for all the insights. Yesterday it ocurred to me that NTDOY has been uptrending for a week but apparantly the whole industry was, but I'll guess you're my information broker now so it's all good in the end!
 
Apenknul said:
I do have a small question, as I noticed a drop in the chart in the Switch lifespan between 2018 and 2019. I wonder what that was all about, since that was the year Smash Ultimate was announced, that even got a whole E3 part of it, back then.
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I'd attribute the 2018 drop due to the nationwide economic climate at the time (rising rates) in addition to the forex (Foreign exchange currencies) climate. A weakening yen around 2017/2018 didn't help Nintendo or Sony. Ultimately, The balance between market health and Yen/USD pair is more important to investors than Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Apenknul said:
Seeing the present day go up like this, seems to be good news, albeit it's just predictions. There is a shareholders meeting on February 6th, and people assuming that there will be a Nintendo Direct in Jan/Feb, wouldn't it be more likely to have the teaser trailer out in january around the week of 22th or 29th, so shareholders can soak in before the meeting? And would there even be a Direct between the teaser and reveal in march? I don't see a point in marketing Switch games that are mostly remakes, if a new system is announced, even tho it would have the backwards compatibility.
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It depends on how they want to market it. I think what you suggested makes sense but Nintendo is a wild card. The shareholders meeting is ultimately about performance review (sales) and business strategy (Remember the Blue ocean speech?, Smartphone partnership?, Leveraging IP's?). Not necessarily hardware or software.

Apenknul said:
And then my last question. You say you are not an insider, and I believe you, but you also said that before the Switch announcement you heard of Nintendo's plan of getting the console and handheld divisions combined. So my question is if you have heard anything for the new generation, that the stocks are rising. Since you said


No offence, It just makes me wonder what that minimal secret sauce could be for the whole stock rising, when the Wii U's/project café thing was being mocked and belittled since that was also a little step from Wii's era.
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Nothing I'd consider even remotely true. I really only pay attention to things that get circulated by multiple different "groups" of shareholders and are accompanied by stock movements. For the Switch 2, Only thing that fits the bill is May 2024 release part. I guess one dark horse thing I've heard circulated was Nintendo positioning themselves back to a two platform strategy but not Handheld vs. Console but rather Hybrid vs. AR/VR. I consider this bullshit but very very cool if it happens. I'm not being cheeky either, Its akin to your weird uncle that works across the street from nintendo saying he saw someone in the window playing VR mario. lol . Very likely bullshit but just an example of the weird stuff Wall street talks about.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Nothing I'd consider even remotely true. I really only pay attention to things that get circulated by multiple different "groups" of shareholders and are accompanied by stock movements. For the Switch 2, Only thing that fits the bill is May 2024 release part. I guess one dark horse thing I've heard circulated was Nintendo positioning themselves back to a two platform strategy but not Handheld vs. Console but rather Hybrid vs. AR/VR. I consider this bullshit but very very cool if it happens.

I'm not being cheeky either, Its akin to your weird uncle that works across the street from nintendo saying he saw someone in the window playing VR mario. lol . Very likely bullshit but just an example of the weird stuff Wall street talks about.
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Watch as people just ignores the part in bold

BTW interesting post :)
 
Let me get this straight...

  • OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this.
  • OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
  • OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.

I know everyone wants new info but... there's nothing here
 
neil said:
Let me get this straight...

  • OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this.
  • OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
  • OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.

I know everyone wants new info but... there's nothing here
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Awfully cynical take and a belittling way to try and point out the flaws in this post, don't you think?
 
neil said:
Let me get this straight...

  • OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this.
  • OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
  • OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.

I know everyone wants new info but... there's nothing here
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Ignoring the blatant rudeness of several aspects of this post, let's civilly bring up some counterpoints. Note: I'm not an expert, but I am slowly learning the ins and outs of this stuff through my university experience. I'm not qualified to talk about it as my own opinion, but I can at least understand and infer a lot of stuff from this post.

  • OP points out that prices go up when investors think a new system is coming. Ok, great, but we already knew that and we already know a new system is coming soon, based on reports more credible than this
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Technically this theory was pointing towards "How soon" the reveal is. Everyone knows that a reveal is happening at some point in the next year, that much is kinda clear, but the examples provided (namely the Wii and Switch) point to something in the next 6 months at the highest. Besides, a lot of the more "credible sources" are very very very vague. If nothing else, it adds to the credibility of the "soon" rumors. There's nothing wrong with having additional rumors/theories that add credibility to other rumors. That's... kind of how thumbtack & string theories are made. Many rumors and theories pairing together.

  • OP says they and their trader colleagues believe a May release is likely but doesn't give any factual basis, also states they are not an insider.
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Shareholder Chad has mentioned that he has his own personal views on it, and that's completely fine. Like... I'm sorry, but this just seems a tad rude. A man has his views outside of trading. Also, other traders can hear tidbits from semi-official sources of their own and believe in rumors that they learned of their own. That's actually a rather common thing. What did Shareholder Chad say once... "Buy the rumors, sell the news"?

  • OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
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If the previous post was slightly rude, this was just blatantly an insult. Someone can have their views towards a company influenced by the money they have in it, that's completely fine. He's also completely capable of having a conversation without mentioning it, and a lot of the time he does mention it... it's insightful and very interesting, hence this post in the first place.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Technically this theory was pointing towards "How soon" the reveal is. Everyone knows that a reveal is happening at some point in the next year, that much is kinda clear, but the examples provided (namely the Wii and Switch) point to something in the next 6 months at the highest. Besides, a lot of the more "credible sources" are very very very vague. If nothing else, it adds to the credibility of the "soon" rumors. There's nothing wrong with having additional rumors/theories that add credibility to other rumors. That's... kind of how thumbtack & string theories are made. Many rumors and theories pairing together.
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Yeah, there is TLDR and he didn't even get the point right.
The point is not that stocks go up when investors think the new system is coming, people think the new system is coming for years already but the trend is still downward, the point is, in OP's words: stocks undergo parabolic upward movements SHORTLY before a major product or event announcement, that is why when OP hear people talking about May 2024, he think it fit the bills.
 
neil said:
OP seems kind of obsessed with letting everyone know they hold shares in Nintendo to the point where people think it's a parody account.
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I will admit I do dial it up for the fun and laughs. It's not a "look at me, I'm cool" thing but rather meant as a character archetype thing. Its taking what I truely am and just cranking it up to 10.

ziggyrivers said:
I can see Nintendo attempting VR/AR, but through research and development to see how they can implement this in their consoles,
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LuigiBlood said:
Watch as people just ignores the part in bold

BTW interesting post :)
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I'd love to see them go in on VR/AR however not at the cost of staying as a one platform company. Its too perfect and is working out way too well for them to put out a VR device as a standalone product. It just doesn't make any sense. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in my post at all but I wanted to articulate the stupid crap wall street can talk about it in regards to Nintendo. At least as a counterpoint against my own beliefs regarding a May release. I'd rather be open and truthful rather than omit the times when this market angle is simply false. Its no different than a scoop being wrong with a real insider, It happens. Nothing is 100%.

However, I will absolutely defend the idea that it (Wall street talks and stock movements) does have a place in speculation talks as a legitimate source.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I will admit I do dial it up for the fun and laughs. It's not a "look at me, I'm cool" thing but rather meant as a character archetype thing. Its taking what I truely am and just cranking it up to 10.





I'd love to see them go in on VR/AR however not at the cost of staying as a one platform company. Its too perfect and is working out way too well for them to put out a VR device as a standalone product. It just doesn't make any sense. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in my post at all but I wanted to articulate the stupid crap wall street can talk about it in regards to Nintendo. At least as a counterpoint against my own beliefs regarding a May release. I'd rather be open and truthful rather than omit the times when this market angle is simply false. Its no different than a scoop being wrong with a real insider, It happens. Nothing is 100%.

However, I will absolutely defend the idea that it (Wall street talks and stock movements) does have a place in speculation talks as a legitimate source.
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Yeah, like someone else mentioned in this thread or another one: investors/rich are not always a savvy bunch
 
Shareholder Chad said:
It depends on how they want to market it. I think what you suggested makes sense but Nintendo is a wild card. The shareholders meeting is ultimately about performance review (sales) and business strategy (Remember the Blue ocean speech?, Smartphone partnership?, Leveraging IP's?). Not necessarily hardware or software.
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That's true. You're not the first to mention shareholder meetings aren't necessarily for hardware or software.😅

But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.

And I still keep thinking that the new Pokemon game on Pokemon day is gonna be on Switch 2, instead of Switch, since Scarlet/Violet ended last month, and no new pokemon game is announced. I think it would be such a system seller for the new device, especially with what you heard that it may release in late May, that a pokemon game can buff up the sales somewhere in october/november
But that's my whole view on it, haha.😅
 
Apenknul said:
But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.
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I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.

A Nintendo Direct Mini in January.

Nintendo directs in January aren't common, but they've happened in the past and similar events have happened around the same time. This would get the remaining games dates for the first-half of the year while also knocking out the remaining third-party titles they have to show. That frees up a lot of February time for remaining stuff for late-Feb and March. A Pokemon Presents could also happen before or during the Lunar New Year break, and that frees up late-Feb for a Switch 2 reveal. Voila, simple as.

Granted, that's just a theory, but it's something that could solve that problem.
 
Apenknul said:
That's true. You're not the first to mention shareholder meetings aren't necessarily for hardware or software.😅

But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.

And I still keep thinking that the new Pokemon game on Pokemon day is gonna be on Switch 2, instead of Switch, since Scarlet/Violet ended last month, and no new pokemon game is announced. I think it would be such a system seller for the new device, especially with what you heard that it may release in late May, that a pokemon game can buff up the sales somewhere in october/november
But that's my whole view on it, haha.😅
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Judging by GameFreak’s handling of Pokemon between console generations, I’m expecting next Pokemon game to be only in Switch 1, but compatible with the next gen because of BC.

That said, there are several Pokemon content that the OG Switch can still get:
• B/W 3
• Legends Unova
• Legends Celebii
• Let’s Go Johto
 
Apenknul said:
But let's say aside the shareholder meeting on feb 6, there is Pokémon day on Feb 27. If there's also a Nintendo Direct in february, which I think people are used to to the beginning of the month (Feb 17, 2021, Feb 9 2022, Feb 8 2023), then I assume February is pretty full of itself, which would make a january reveal/teaser trailer more likely, and wait till march for an event, and May release. It would also coincide with the timespan Switch release had, with 1 month shorter, with october trailer --2 month gap--> January event --1 month gap--> March release.
Click to expand...

SoldierDelta said:
I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.

A Nintendo Direct Mini in January.

Nintendo directs in January aren't common, but they've happened in the past and similar events have happened around the same time. This would get the remaining games dates for the first-half of the year while also knocking out the remaining third-party titles they have to show. That frees up a lot of February time for remaining stuff for late-Feb and March. A Pokemon Presents could also happen before or during the Lunar New Year break, and that frees up late-Feb for a Switch 2 reveal. Voila, simple as.

Granted, that's just a theory, but it's something that could solve that problem.
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It isn't full and it isn't hard if Nintendo simply tweets (or "X's" or w/e the hell is called these days) some of these announcements. I fully expect the "teaser" of switch 2 to be a tweet. Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion 2 HD release dates can all be tweets. Hell, I do not think a Direct or Direct Mini is even needed at this point. The runway is full on clear for the Switch 2 express to fly by in March and land in May.
 
SoldierDelta said:
I feel like pulling a small, Ace Attorney-style "Objection" here, and mention a possibility.

A Nintendo Direct Mini in January.

Nintendo directs in January aren't common, but they've happened in the past and similar events have happened around the same time. This would get the remaining games dates for the first-half of the year while also knocking out the remaining third-party titles they have to show. That frees up a lot of February time for remaining stuff for late-Feb and March. A Pokemon Presents could also happen before or during the Lunar New Year break, and that frees up late-Feb for a Switch 2 reveal. Voila, simple as.

Granted, that's just a theory, but it's something that could solve that problem.
Click to expand...
Oh that's certainly a possibility, I'd give you that. But then again, if they give out the reveal trailer in january, and have a small 1 month gap between an reveal event, people/general audience can settle/soak in that news, while if they give out the trailer in late february, and having a March event, things might get too quick. News of a reveal trailer does need to spread out properly in that regard.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
It isn't full and it isn't hard if Nintendo simply tweets (or "X's" or w/e the hell is called these days) some of these announcements. I fully expect the "teaser" of switch 2 to be a tweet. Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion 2 HD release dates can all be tweets. Hell, I do not think a Direct or Direct Mini is even needed at this point. The runway is full on clear for the Switch 2 express to fly by in March and land in May.
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That is actually a fair point. Twitter Direct Mk. II les go!!

But a Switch 2 trailer (plus a Switch 2 teaser, similar to Switch 1) is pretty much expected to happen. 4 months of mass production is the most likely outcome on the whole because of the 5 month period (roughly) between Switch 1 reveal to release, but it's still very vague overall. Big ol' "soon" nonetheless.
Apenknul said:
Oh that's certainly a possibility, I'd give you that. But then again, if they give out the reveal trailer in january, and have a small 1 month gap between an reveal event, people/general audience can settle/soak in that news, while if they give out the trailer in late february, and having a March event, things might get too quick. News of a reveal trailer does need to spread out properly in that regard.
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No real "perfect" argument to be made here. Lots of possibilities that all equally have a chance of not happening.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Judging by GameFreak’s handling of Pokemon between console generations, I’m expecting next Pokemon game to be only in Switch 1, but compatible with the next gen because of BC.

That said, there are several Pokemon content that the OG Switch can still get:
• B/W 3
• Legends Unova
• Legends Celebii
• Let’s Go Johto
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I know what you mean, but if you look at what pattern gamefreak gives with their games, it would imply the next pokemon game is a Switch 2 game.

DS: New gen (Diamond/Pearl) -> Remake of older gen (HG/SS) -> New gen (black/white) -> new game same gen (black 2/white 2)

3DS: New gen (X/Y) -> Remake of older gen (OR/AS) -> new gen (Sun/Moon) -> new game same gen (US/UM)

Switch: New Gen (Sword/Shield) -> Remake of older gen (BD/SP) -> New gen (Scarlet Violet)

Only difference in the last order is that Sword/shield and scarlet/violet did get DLC, but can be seen as the ''new game, same gen'' sorta thing.
That's why I see the new Pokemon game starting of as a Switch 2 game, and having a new gen again, because of how I see this pattern.
 
vince-mcmahon-money-smelling-money-that-s-good-f377xyctxrt8vh1g.gif
 
Fantastic post op! I was following what some of what you were saying in the console thread a few weeks back about May being a possibility and have been intrigued ever since. You raise a good case! As someone who doesn’t know the first thing about stocks or trading, I appreciate how you broke things down in an easy to understand way.

Personally, I still feel like September – October is the most likely scenario, but I’ll be very happy if we get it in May!
 
rêverie said:
damn, this overall insightful and interesting post really ruffled some feathers! who knew stock theorizing would bring out the haters.
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I think you can bring out haters any time you propose something that goes against their opinion. Especially combined with something that breaks a comfortable pattern. We as a people have forgotten how to disagree without passing on bad vibes. Thankfully, Some do still remember. Like the poster Im quoting below.

Leviraps said:
Fantastic post op! I was following what some of what you were saying in the console thread a few weeks back about May being a possibility and have been intrigued ever since. You raise a good case! As someone who doesn’t know the first thing about stocks or trading, I appreciate how you broke things down in an easy to understand way.

Personally, I still feel like September – October is the most likely scenario, but I’ll be very happy if we get it in May!
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You are very welcome. Thank you for disagreeing and not trashing myself, others, or the research. I truely wish there more people like you out there.
 
Absolutely amazing thread, really informational even for the ones who don't understand a lot about stock and it's market. I do agree with you, it definetely seems like Nintendo has been gearing up towards something in the middle of the year and they're certainly working towards it. I guess it is already a thing that their investors are curious to see what they will do to follow up the Switch (as it is naturally declining in sales after many years), i doubt Nintendo will take much more time to react.

I think the AR/VR thing may not be too farfetched, but i don't think Nintendo might jump the gun yet, though, i'm not sure. There's definetely some sort of growing market for it, as mobile technology sees gigantic jumps (compare 2018~2020 notebooks to all these 2023 super slim notebooks and it's crazy what they can do with integrated/handheld tech), its production price eases and the idea of more affordable, easier to work/produce VR tech becomes more and more of a possibility. The entire Nintendo Labo VR Kit always seemed to me as Nintendo experimenting with the idea of it and what they could do in that regard (and hey, for an additional cardboard peripheral, it went very decently!). From the Virtual Boy, to the 3DS AR Cards to the entire Nintendo Labo set of games, maybe even including some other AR ventures (Pokémon GO, etc) they sure do take huge interest in it. People look at Apple's attempts in VR and laugh at it, and although i can't say i think the world needs VR right now, i absolutely see it becoming a thing in the near future. Guess Nintendo might be putting some cards up their sleeves with that.
 
Simbinha said:
Absolutely amazing thread, really informational even for the ones who don't understand a lot about stock and it's market. I do agree with you, it definetely seems like Nintendo has been gearing up towards something in the middle of the year and they're certainly working towards it. I guess it is already a thing that their investors are curious to see what they will do to follow up the Switch (as it is naturally declining in sales after many years), i doubt Nintendo will take much more time to react.

I think the AR/VR thing may not be too farfetched, but i don't think Nintendo might jump the gun yet, though, i'm not sure. There's definetely some sort of growing market for it, as mobile technology sees gigantic jumps (compare 2018~2020 notebooks to all these 2023 super slim notebooks and it's crazy what they can do with integrated/handheld tech), its production price eases and the idea of more affordable, easier to work/produce VR tech becomes more and more of a possibility. The entire Nintendo Labo VR Kit always seemed to me as Nintendo experimenting with the idea of it and what they could do in that regard (and hey, for an additional cardboard peripheral, it went very decently!). From the Virtual Boy, to the 3DS AR Cards to the entire Nintendo Labo set of games, maybe even including some other AR ventures (Pokémon GO, etc) they sure do take huge interest in it. People look at Apple's attempts in VR and laugh at it, and although i can't say i think the world needs VR right now, i absolutely see it becoming a thing in the near future. Guess Nintendo might be putting some cards up their sleeves with that.
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Agree. Nintendo sits in a better position for VR than both Sony and MS. Because:
a.) They are out of the arms race for graphics. Meaning they could market a VR device with an accessible price without sacrificing quality, on the contrary they could even make the VR device their premium or "pro" product.
b.) They have lots of popular IPs with recognizable playstyles that could work very well with VR.

Shareholder Chad said:
I'd love to see them go in on VR/AR however not at the cost of staying as a one platform company. Its too perfect and is working out way too well for them to put out a VR device as a standalone product. It just doesn't make any sense. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it in my post at all but I wanted to articulate the stupid crap wall street can talk about it in regards to Nintendo. At least as a counterpoint against my own beliefs regarding a May release. I'd rather be open and truthful rather than omit the times when this market angle is simply false. Its no different than a scoop being wrong with a real insider, It happens. Nothing is 100%.
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Just speculation on my part. Given the state of things, I think a VR proposition could work for Nintendo more or less like this:
Like MS has Series S and premium Series X and Sony has PS5 and will have premium PS5 pro.
Nintendo could have their "Switch 2" base system to play on TV and on the go, and a premium "Switch 2 vr" system to play on TV with enhanced graphics and in VR. Both systems would share the same base library + some exclusive content for the VR system.
(btw. I also join in thanking you for the insightful OP)
 
I know that this is slightly tangential, but I did recall that Shareholder Chad did consider the Red Sea attacks was a significant risk factor. I didn't fully realize the ramifications of the situation until Perun's video on the topic recently. I highly recommend everyone watching it in full, but the tl;dw version of it is that shipping is going to get extremely risky with the rapid evolution of weapons that can attack vital shipping chokepoints cost effectively. Nintendo is still operating in the same planet as everyone else is so they wouldn't be immune to these risks.

Shareholder Chad - from your perspective as an investor, do you think that Nintendo is able to address or mitigate these risks effectively? And if so, what possible impacts would such measures have in their operations that could propagate to the consumer?
 
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InsaneZero said:
I know that this is slightly tangential, but I did recall that Shareholder Chad did consider the Red Sea attacks was a significant risk factor. I didn't fully realize the ramifications of the situation until Perun's video on the topic recently. I highly recommend everyone watching it in full, but the tl;dw version of it is that shipping is going to get extremely risky with the rapid evolution of weapons that can attack vital shipping chokepoints cost effectively. Nintendo is still operating in the same planet as everyone else is so they wouldn't be immune to these risks.

Shareholder Chad - from your perspective as an investor, do you think that Nintendo is able to address or mitigate these risks effectively? And if so, what possible impacts would such measures have in their operations that could propagate to the consumer?
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Oh no. Flashbacks to Amiibos coming out during the shipyard strikes. At least Nintendo has some recent experience adjusting their packaging and changing shipping plans when needed.
 
InsaneZero said:
I know that this is slightly tangential, but I did recall that Shareholder Chad did consider the Red Sea attacks was a significant risk factor. I didn't fully realize the ramifications of the situation until Perun's video on the topic recently. I highly recommend everyone watching it in full, but the tl;dw version of it is that shipping is going to get extremely risky with the rapid evolution of weapons that can attack vital shipping chokepoints cost effectively. Nintendo is still operating in the same planet as everyone else is so they wouldn't be immune to these risks.

Shareholder Chad - from your perspective as an investor, do you think that Nintendo is able to address or mitigate these risks effectively? And if so, what possible impacts would such measures have in their operations that could propagate to the consumer?
Click to expand...
julian said:
Oh no. Flashbacks to Amiibos coming out during the shipyard strikes. At least Nintendo has some recent experience adjusting their packaging and changing shipping plans when needed.
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I haven’t done a whole lot of research on how this affects Nintendo’s shipping but it will affect their stock price due to shareholders fear of broader conflict erupting. Nintendo is down 1% today (14 cents on NTDOY) but so is most tech companies. The index (S&p500) is also down exactly 1%. So I wouldn’t worry about anything YET.

just using logic, I’d say Nintendo should be largely unaffected outside of shipping to Europe due to looking at a map. The Red Sea is in the Middle East and Japan has a straight shot to our west coast.

Unless WWlll breaks out of this Israel/Houthis/Hamis conflict, it shouldn’t affect plans for the Switch 2.

Edit: Sidenote, this is still a massive deal for shipping in general and could cause a major war and/or economic crisis. Just not a major deal for Japan’s exports to America specifically.
 
I certainly hope you’re right! The one thing giving me pause is that, if there is in fact a new console launching in five months, surely there needs to be chatter starting up any week now. Or you’d expect, at least.
 
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