If CP2077 didn't faceplant out of the gate we probably would've been having this discourse 3 years ago.
IMO if CP2077 had come out actually functional, the discourse would have largely been "oh, this game is... fine, I guess?" There was nothing groundbreaking or boundary pushing about that game, in contrast to the sky-high expectations people had
BG3, on the other hand, didn't really have those expectations. Sure, we'd been told by the EA players to expect something special, so it's honestly a bit strange how surprised we all ended up being lol, but it didn't have the hype CP2077 had, and it ended up being a game with much more impressive systems and mechanics
I think the best recent analogy is Elden Ring. It's not really the same thing, as that game was also heavily hyped, but there was plenty of skepticism over whether From Soft could pull off an open world. Hell, does anyone remember the "which will sell more: Elden Ring or Pokémon Legends Arceus" poll at the other place? Plenty of people, myself included, found it
ridiculous to consider Elden Ring outselling PLA. Obviously, we look incredibly silly for saying that now, and From Soft knocked it out of the park and largely exceeded all expectations. And then the backlash began - remember that Twitter thread where a handful of devs from other (largely open world games) studios were shitting on the UI and other minor aspects?