StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[RennanNT]

Pricing is a balancing act which we have little data to work on.

Between a $400 console and a $500 consoles which are identical, the later will obviously sell noticiable less. But... without a big loss they won't be identical.

If you take a $100 loss across 100M devices, you just lost 10B dollars. That's simply not an option. As for a much smaller loss, that's possible, but they can save it for deals later, when they run out of people willing to pay more or buy bundles.

If you have a great AND cheap product, that's awesome. But it's not always the case. And pursuing a cheaper point at all costs could lead to way worse results than a more appealing but also more expensive product.

The Switch Lite is the worse selling model, the $80+game 2DS didn't sell much, the $300/350 Wii U and $50 PSTV were disasters.

And again, affordability and expanding their reach is really important to Nintendo, so they wouldn't price it $450 or $500 lightly. I still think it's $399, but from what we know about the device and about component prices, things might be more expensive than expected in the planing stage or maybe they found that whatever cost them extra $50~100 was worth it.

 

[ILikeFeet]

the NAND game has taken a step up with Western Digital unveiling a 2Tb NAND chip

WD unveils world's highest-capacity flash memory chip — 2Tb 3D QLC flash chips open the door to bigger and cheaper SSDs

WD previews 2Tb 3D QLC NAND dies at an investor event.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[oldpuck]

Switch was already selling very well prior to the pandemic. It didn't make new sales out of thin air. It sped up people's decision to buy one sooner than later.

That's probably not true. If pandemic turned a decent chunk of "later" into "now" it almost certainly converted a bunch of "maybe, but when would I have time" into "sure, I've got a lot of time" Anecdotally I can think of at least two people who have never bought a games console in their life who bought a Switch due to pandemic. Both were gamers when in their tweens (Pokemon, and Sonic, respectively), both had never played video games as an adult or even a teenager, both had the sort of work lives that make recreational time precious.

I think video-game-forum-goers are weirdly blind to the idea that there are people for whom games are entertainment but not a hobby. People who will happily play games - big games even - but for whom video games don't fit into their lives in a way that justifies saving up money for a purchase. 350 bucks - a console plus a single game - is vacation money. You save up for vacation, you don't save up that amount of money for a game you're not sure when you'll find the hours in the day to play.

Switch was successful at least partially because it met those gamers - and I'm including myself, at least initially - where we were at. Pandemic changed where a lot of people were, it shouldn't be surprising if it created customers.

What I think is true is that Switch success during pandemic wasn't a short term fad. If it was a fad, or if it just moved future sales into the present, you'd expect a big drop off in sales afterward. But you don't. Instead you get the sort of fall that makes the hardware sales seem organic, and the sort of software sales that say a decent chunk of those "new" players are still active.

Animal Crossing was probably a right place/right time hit, but the Switch's overall ability to capitalize on that moment was more like right form factor/right generation.

 

[Goodtwin]

$399.00....walks off stage.

 

[Brenal]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Purely looking at the hardware as a spec sheet, without Nintendo branding, or Nintendo exclusives, US$450 is a spot on price. If this were another PC handheld, you'd look at the spec sheet, and think, yeah, that makes sense. Compare it to the US$399 Steam Deck. Same storage, comparable GPU and CPU performance, both LCD screens. Less RAM, bigger, higher resolution screen. Joy-Cons, the dock, the clever system of overclocking when docked - all of this adds to system complexity, and at $450, it's cheaper than a Steam Deck + docking station, and is better at being a docked device than the Steam Deck is.

I'm not saying that's what Switch 2 is or whether or not that's a product you'd want. You'd just understand why it exists, it's totally in keeping with the rest of the market. Valve has the lowest margins of any of the handheld manufacturers, so it's pretty reasonable to assume that there isn't a lot of fat to cut off of that price either. If Nintendo wants to make a dollar off the physical device on day one, that's probably where they need to price it. Perhaps some cost cutting and belt tightening could get them to US$400, but I am extremely dubious.

Nintendo's pricing strategy is a whole different kettle of fish. I think it's a little misguided to look at the square peg of their historical pricing and then try to wedge it into round hole of the current inflation driven currency market. Nintendo likely set a target price, in yen, around the time they set the target performance levels. These are interconnected decisions.

Will Nintendo choose to maintain their original target price, and eat the short term hit to the bottom line, hoping to ride out inflation, not knowing how long the current situation will last? Or will they price higher, giving themselves the flexibility to lower the price in response to the market? Will they use regional pricing to account for currency differences, and risk undermining themselves in foreign markets? Or will they use bundling and vouchers as a way to lower the effective cost of the product, without lowering the actual cost of the main unit?

Will Nintendo roll out the launch regionally, putting in higher margin markets first, getting early adopters to pay full price, and then launch in lower margin markets later, after the risk of imports cannibalizing sales goes away? Could Nintendo use special edition SKUs to attract price insensitive folk, while keeping the base unit price low?

How long will Nintendo maintain Switch support, and how long will cross-gen last? Will Nintendo price Switch 2 as a premium device relative to the Switch, and leave the base model prices the same? Or will Switch receive only a subset of titles, and receive a price cut? This is the kind of decision that can great affect how Nintendo can price the device, but also baked into the development of those games, again probably years ago now.

Wild speculation time: Nintendo decides at the last minute that they need to price Switch 2 higher, and they'll get away with it by maintaining Switch 1 support for the launch year. But that means cross-gen can't be some titles but all titles. Nintendo delays Switch 2, not because Switch 2 software isn't ready, but to put together a Switch 1 version of all the previous exclusives.

Do I think this happened? No, not at all. Do I think it reflects that the pricing discussion is well beyond what the BOM of the device is, and what the market would bear for the product in a vacuum? Yes.

Would economic of scale help mitigate this somewhat?, after all the switch 2 will probably move close to an order of magnitude more than the deck

 

[Shoulder]

$399.00....walks off stage.

Nintendo does not want another 3DS type launch in terms of a shocking price (which I would say be 450-500 dollars for Switch 2). $399 would be perfect, plus it allows breathing room between it, and Switch 1 if a price drop happens.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Purely looking at the hardware as a spec sheet, without Nintendo branding, or Nintendo exclusives, US$450 is a spot on price. If this were another PC handheld, you'd look at the spec sheet, and think, yeah, that makes sense. Compare it to the US$399 Steam Deck. Same storage, comparable GPU and CPU performance, both LCD screens. Less RAM, bigger, higher resolution screen. Joy-Cons, the dock, the clever system of overclocking when docked - all of this adds to system complexity, and at $450, it's cheaper than a Steam Deck + docking station, and is better at being a docked device than the Steam Deck is.

I'm not saying that's what Switch 2 is or whether or not that's a product you'd want. You'd just understand why it exists, it's totally in keeping with the rest of the market. Valve has the lowest margins of any of the handheld manufacturers, so it's pretty reasonable to assume that there isn't a lot of fat to cut off of that price either. If Nintendo wants to make a dollar off the physical device on day one, that's probably where they need to price it. Perhaps some cost cutting and belt tightening could get them to US$400, but I am extremely dubious.

Nintendo's pricing strategy is a whole different kettle of fish. I think it's a little misguided to look at the square peg of their historical pricing and then try to wedge it into round hole of the current inflation driven currency market. Nintendo likely set a target price, in yen, around the time they set the target performance levels. These are interconnected decisions.

Will Nintendo choose to maintain their original target price, and eat the short term hit to the bottom line, hoping to ride out inflation, not knowing how long the current situation will last? Or will they price higher, giving themselves the flexibility to lower the price in response to the market? Will they use regional pricing to account for currency differences, and risk undermining themselves in foreign markets? Or will they use bundling and vouchers as a way to lower the effective cost of the product, without lowering the actual cost of the main unit?

Will Nintendo roll out the launch regionally, putting in higher margin markets first, getting early adopters to pay full price, and then launch in lower margin markets later, after the risk of imports cannibalizing sales goes away? Could Nintendo use special edition SKUs to attract price insensitive folk, while keeping the base unit price low?

How long will Nintendo maintain Switch support, and how long will cross-gen last? Will Nintendo price Switch 2 as a premium device relative to the Switch, and leave the base model prices the same? Or will Switch receive only a subset of titles, and receive a price cut? This is the kind of decision that can great affect how Nintendo can price the device, but also baked into the development of those games, again probably years ago now.

Wild speculation time: Nintendo decides at the last minute that they need to price Switch 2 higher, and they'll get away with it by maintaining Switch 1 support for the launch year. But that means cross-gen can't be some titles but all titles. Nintendo delays Switch 2, not because Switch 2 software isn't ready, but to put together a Switch 1 version of all the previous exclusives.

Do I think this happened? No, not at all. Do I think it reflects that the pricing discussion is well beyond what the BOM of the device is, and what the market would bear for the product in a vacuum? Yes.

450 isn't a very attractive pricing for the mass market that doesn't care about the pc handheld market, but maybe it's not a big deal, but Nintendo must must need to make sure that it puts out enough games that can appeal to both the core gamers and the blue ocean market in 2025 and 2026, and especially 2025.

 

[Steve]

Wild speculation time: Nintendo decides at the last minute that they need to price Switch 2 higher, and they'll get away with it by maintaining Switch 1 support for the launch year. But that means cross-gen can't be some titles but all titles. Nintendo delays Switch 2, not because Switch 2 software isn't ready, but to put together a Switch 1 version of all the previous exclusives.

Do I think this happened? No, not at all. Do I think it reflects that the pricing discussion is well beyond what the BOM of the device is, and what the market would bear for the product in a vacuum? Yes.

Nah, Nintendo will go absolutely crazy when it comes to simple HD ports of older titles and letting that be cross gen games.

I personally can't see Nintendo down porting all their NG Switch 2 games, since that seems quite silly and would make the Switch 2 pointless.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Nah, Nintendo will go absolutely crazy when it comes to simple HD ports of older titles and letting that be cross gen games.

I personally can't see Nintendo down porting all their NG Switch 2 games, since that seems quite silly and would make the Switch 2 pointless.

oldpuck categorically denies this bold speculation.Yes, that speculation makes no sense.

 

[oldpuck]

Would economic of scale help mitigate this somewhat?, after all the switch 2 will probably move close to an order of magnitude more than the deck

I'm sort of assuming that already. Steam Deck plus dock is $480. We're talking about a product that should be smaller, lighter, more powerful, and with a bunch of extra custom mechanical widgets (the Joy-Con).

I also think that a lot of the bigger cost items in both Switch and the Steam Deck - like the storage and RAM - are parts which are made in the hundreds of millions already for the phone/tablet/laptop industry. While Nintendo might be able to get better deals than Valve on these parts, I don't think there is as much room for negotiating the price down Something like the screen, which is fully custom for both vendors, there is probably bigger room to negotiate price.

 

[Jerm411]

I feel like we do the pricing thing every time a new console comes out and everyone also over estimates what it'll come in at lol....like I remember there being rumors PS5 was gonna be $600 or $650 or even $700 and the same with the Series X...

I think Nintendo knows that they need to get the Switch 2 at price wise for a scorching hot launch.

 

[Darknut85]

$399.00....walks off stage.

$399.99

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I feel like we do the pricing thing every time a new console comes out and everyone also over estimates what it'll come in at lol....like I remember there being rumors PS5 was gonna be $600 or $650 or even $700 and the same with the Series X...

I think Nintendo knows that they need to get the Switch 2 at price wise for a scorching hot launch.

The fact that $450 isn't an exaggeration in pricing is just not as good as the switch with its broader mass market appeal, so it would require Nintendo to provide a large lineup of quality first party games.

 

[LiC]

The Adata press release makes no mention of release date, but curiously their gallery removed all images of a Steam Deck, Switch and Laptop in the background, so now it's just some CG renders of the 512GB microSD card.

The gallery is still there.

 

[Discostew]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Purely looking at the hardware as a spec sheet, without Nintendo branding, or Nintendo exclusives, US$450 is a spot on price. If this were another PC handheld, you'd look at the spec sheet, and think, yeah, that makes sense. Compare it to the US$399 Steam Deck. Same storage, comparable GPU and CPU performance, both LCD screens. Less RAM, bigger, higher resolution screen. Joy-Cons, the dock, the clever system of overclocking when docked - all of this adds to system complexity, and at $450, it's cheaper than a Steam Deck + docking station, and is better at being a docked device than the Steam Deck is.

I'm not saying that's what Switch 2 is or whether or not that's a product you'd want. You'd just understand why it exists, it's totally in keeping with the rest of the market. Valve has the lowest margins of any of the handheld manufacturers, so it's pretty reasonable to assume that there isn't a lot of fat to cut off of that price either. If Nintendo wants to make a dollar off the physical device on day one, that's probably where they need to price it. Perhaps some cost cutting and belt tightening could get them to US$400, but I am extremely dubious.

Nintendo's pricing strategy is a whole different kettle of fish. I think it's a little misguided to look at the square peg of their historical pricing and then try to wedge it into round hole of the current inflation driven currency market. Nintendo likely set a target price, in yen, around the time they set the target performance levels. These are interconnected decisions.

Will Nintendo choose to maintain their original target price, and eat the short term hit to the bottom line, hoping to ride out inflation, not knowing how long the current situation will last? Or will they price higher, giving themselves the flexibility to lower the price in response to the market? Will they use regional pricing to account for currency differences, and risk undermining themselves in foreign markets? Or will they use bundling and vouchers as a way to lower the effective cost of the product, without lowering the actual cost of the main unit?

Will Nintendo roll out the launch regionally, putting in higher margin markets first, getting early adopters to pay full price, and then launch in lower margin markets later, after the risk of imports cannibalizing sales goes away? Could Nintendo use special edition SKUs to attract price insensitive folk, while keeping the base unit price low?

How long will Nintendo maintain Switch support, and how long will cross-gen last? Will Nintendo price Switch 2 as a premium device relative to the Switch, and leave the base model prices the same? Or will Switch receive only a subset of titles, and receive a price cut? This is the kind of decision that can great affect how Nintendo can price the device, but also baked into the development of those games, again probably years ago now.

Wild speculation time: Nintendo decides at the last minute that they need to price Switch 2 higher, and they'll get away with it by maintaining Switch 1 support for the launch year. But that means cross-gen can't be some titles but all titles. Nintendo delays Switch 2, not because Switch 2 software isn't ready, but to put together a Switch 1 version of all the previous exclusives.

Do I think this happened? No, not at all. Do I think it reflects that the pricing discussion is well beyond what the BOM of the device is, and what the market would bear for the product in a vacuum? Yes.

On the portable PC side outside of the Steam Deck, all of these devices are marked up because that is how they make their profit (and the markup involves another thing I'll get to later). For Steam Deck and the console makers, their profit mainly comes from the games they sell and the royalties of 3rd-parties selling on their platforms. So honestly, I feel the Steam Deck is the only real portable PC we can compare with. But now we have to look at the pricing of the hardware, and not just in terms of the tech, but also in terms of direction. Valve had no intention of going all out on the Steam Deck like the console manufacturers do, and was noted having sold "multiple millions" almost 2 years after it launched. Same can be said about these other portable PCs to a lesser degree. In a case with the Switch 2, we're looking at 10s of millions minimum sold unless Nintendo royally screws up, so they are likely to take action in purchasing far more in bulk, which means the cost per component will be less. They'll still likely make a small profit for each one, but they are also saving more than the makers of portable PCs because of determination to do this for the long run.

That's probably not true. If pandemic turned a decent chunk of "later" into "now" it almost certainly converted a bunch of "maybe, but when would I have time" into "sure, I've got a lot of time" Anecdotally I can think of at least two people who have never bought a games console in their life who bought a Switch due to pandemic. Both were gamers when in their tweens (Pokemon, and Sonic, respectively), both had never played video games as an adult or even a teenager, both had the sort of work lives that make recreational time precious.

I think video-game-forum-goers are weirdly blind to the idea that there are people for whom games are entertainment but not a hobby. People who will happily play games - big games even - but for whom video games don't fit into their lives in a way that justifies saving up money for a purchase. 350 bucks - a console plus a single game - is vacation money. You save up for vacation, you don't save up that amount of money for a game you're not sure when you'll find the hours in the day to play.

Switch was successful at least partially because it met those gamers - and I'm including myself, at least initially - where we were at. Pandemic changed where a lot of people were, it shouldn't be surprising if it created customers.

What I think is true is that Switch success during pandemic wasn't a short term fad. If it was a fad, or if it just moved future sales into the present, you'd expect a big drop off in sales afterward. But you don't. Instead you get the sort of fall that makes the hardware sales seem organic, and the sort of software sales that say a decent chunk of those "new" players are still active.

Animal Crossing was probably a right place/right time hit, but the Switch's overall ability to capitalize on that moment was more like right form factor/right generation.

How much of a drop are we talking about though? Switch's peak was FY '21, where it had dropped afterwards while the pandemic didn't officially end for another 2 years. But if this rise and drop is organic like any other console before, then is the pandemic even responsible? What I do understand is that Nintendo made a lot of money during it, but that was from games, and having access through a digital online store or other online outlets helped in that so people didn't have to leave their homes.

 

[gabeplays]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Purely looking at the hardware as a spec sheet, without Nintendo branding, or Nintendo exclusives, US$450 is a spot on price. If this were another PC handheld, you'd look at the spec sheet, and think, yeah, that makes sense. Compare it to the US$399 Steam Deck. Same storage, comparable GPU and CPU performance, both LCD screens. Less RAM, bigger, higher resolution screen. Joy-Cons, the dock, the clever system of overclocking when docked - all of this adds to system complexity, and at $450, it's cheaper than a Steam Deck + docking station, and is better at being a docked device than the Steam Deck is.

Thank you for explaining. I figured with the shipping manifest and all the information that's come out, it was possible to sort-of kind-of get a ballpark estimate of what it would hypothetically cost to build a Switch 2. If it really costs $450, that's.....oof. It sounds like it's safe to say that sub-$400 isn't happening.

I get it, but dang. I don't know what Nintendo's strategy is, but I hope $400 is still possible.


As a random segway, is it totally confirmed that the new dock has a built-in fan?

 

[ronf]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Spoiler: Unpopular price opinion

I used to be in the 399.99 camp, but after reading this I'm more convinced that $450 is more realistic. Nintendo hasn't touched the price of the OG Switch for the duration of its lifetime, which is quite the feat given inflation. That being said, it seems like they used the following to sustain its MSRP:
-using parts that are not bleeding-edge
-stockpiling parts at cheaper prices
-replacing parts with cheaper components over time
-releasing & pushing an OLED model that is more profitable with a higher MSRP
Sure, they could use all these tricks for the new model, but given another 7-8 year lifecycle on Switch 2, projecting current inflation rates out that far does not look great in today's global-economic environment. If they set a $450 price up front with a healthy margin, that margin might be entirely eaten up by inflation over the coming years.

Or maybe that's what all that component stockpiling was about in their officially released company financials.

 

[Hosermess]

As a random segway, is it totally confirmed that the new dock has a built-in fan?

nope not even a little bit close

 

[Triistan]

479$/€, Nintendo will be doomed for a couple of months and switch 2 at launch will be sold out regardless.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Lastly do we know if Sony might have an idea of the Switch 2 capabilities

We can count on them being at least as knowledgeable as we are and having a general expectation of capabilities for quite some time. Hell, they could be working on LEGO Horizons Switch 2 Edition today.

also I’m quite surprised that Sony and Microsoft doesn’t see Nintendo as a competitor? Will this bite them somehow?

I'd say it's a bit late to worry about that. Fighting the tech spec war left Nintendo free to do something decent but different to the side which blew up into the industry's biggest success. Of course they're all competitors, but unless and until they have something that can compete with Switch on its merits, what can they realistically do besides make the most of the market segment they've been chasing? Which is going well enough for Sony, anyway. Hard to imagine what they could possibly do with PS5 or PS6 to make a stationary home console as relevant in Japan as in the PS1 and PS2 days, for instance.

 

[oldpuck]

How much of a drop are we talking about though? Switch's peak was FY '21, where it had dropped afterwards while the pandemic didn't officially end for another 2 years. But if this rise and drop is organic like any other console before, then is the pandemic even responsible? What I do understand is that Nintendo made a lot of money during it, but that was from games, and having access through a digital online store or other online outlets helped in that so people didn't have to leave their homes.

I didn't say the rise was organic. Let me use pictures. Here are Wii Sales by quarter


Let's annotate it. You can see that US/EU holidays are the most important quarters, and that there is a big fall off in those sales as we get into year four. Sales start dropping faster than they were originally growing in previous years.


It's the same outline with 3DS, because its the same basic outline for all consoles


But Switch doesn't do that. Switch has a spike in off season sales in pandemic, then sales stay high


The pandemic spike is obvious. If those were users who were going to buy a Switch anyway, then you'd expect a matching drop later in the generation. And there is a drop, but it's just the usual late gen drop, delayed because the spike in sales represented a real, new infusion of customers, extending the sales peak. The pandemic represented a real spike in "maybe" customers , some of whom would never have purchased, becoming "definitely" customers

Even if you account for folks buying replacement Switches (by factoring out all the OLED purchases, which is a very crude estimate) the numbers stay basically the same. The fall off is a little bigger in 2021, when the OLED launches, if you assume that 100% of them were second time switch buyers. But that doesn't stop making the chart look like the pandemic spike was real.

 

[Steve]

I didn't say the rise was organic. Let me use pictures. Here are Wii Sales by quarter


Let's annotate it. You can see that US/EU holidays are the most important quarters, and that there is a big fall off in those sales as we get into year four. Sales start dropping faster than they were originally growing in previous years.


It's the same outline with 3DS, because its the same basic outline for all consoles


But Switch doesn't do that. Switch has a spike in off season sales in pandemic, then sales stay high


The pandemic spike is obvious. If those were users who were going to buy a Switch anyway, then you'd expect a matching drop later in the generation. And there is a drop, but it's just the usual late gen drop, delayed because the spike in sales represented a real, new infusion of customers, extending the sales peak. The pandemic represented a real spike in "maybe" customers , some of whom would never have purchased, becoming "definitely" customers

Even if you account for folks buying replacement Switches (by factoring out all the OLED purchases, which is a very crude estimate) the numbers stay basically the same. The fall off is a little bigger in 2021, when the OLED launches, if you assume that 100% of them were second time switch buyers. But that doesn't stop making the chart look like the pandemic spike was real.

wasn't the pandemic spike for every consoles? Since every console manufacturer saw a spike, both in hardware and software.

 

[Brofield]

The gallery is still there.

Hand on the bible I swear they removed those images from the page with the Switch, Deck, laptop, camera, and VR headset when I was looking this up a couple hours ago, scrolling and everything

Today has been a weird day for me

 

[oldpuck]

Thank you for explaining. I figured with the shipping manifest and all the information that's come out, it was possible to sort-of kind-of get a ballpark estimate of what it would hypothetically cost to build a Switch 2. If it really costs $450, that's.....oof. It sounds like it's safe to say that sub-$400 isn't happening.

I get it, but dang. I don't know what Nintendo's strategy is, but I hope $400 is still possible.

Despite the fact that this is my post, I'm actually still on the $399 train as my best guess. I think Nintendo is uncomfortable pricing outside of that range, and the beefy hardware isn't an indication that they are willing to do so, but an indication that they're willing to spend some of their cash reserves on day 1, in order to get a more competitive product.

Folks are welcome to think that Nintendo should and will price is lower. I do! But they shouldn't do so thinking Nintendo is gouging if they don't, or that Nintendo doesn't have other tools to do deal with the inflation or currency challenges they've currently got.

Those who think a $450 is outrageous are often the same people saying that anything less than Series S performance is outrageous ;-). I'm just saying that from a specs/current market perspective, you'd think $450 is fair for what the hardware is.

Honestly, if the Switch Next existed as a PC handheld, I don't think it would sell very well. A Steam Deck optimized for docking doesn't sound like a thing anyone wants. The people who play on their TV would rather spend less money and buy a set top box that never docks, and the handheld users don't want to pay for a bunch of extra gizmos they'll never use. It only works on Switch because of the software ecosystem that makes the two modes transition beautifully, and because Nintendo has a large base of fans who have purchased both kinds of products, and have a built in excitement to be able to transition between the two.

As a random segway, is it totally confirmed that the new dock has a built-in fan?

I do not believe it is, no.

 

[oldpuck]

wasn't the pandemic spike for every consoles? Since every console manufacturer saw a spike, both in hardware and software.

I believe so, but they don't publish the same kind of sales numbers

 

[Cuzizkool]

What kind of profit margin are we thinking the current Switch is getting? Can it potentially get a price drop before Xmas to give it one last big boost before Switch 2?

 

[Tioc]

What kind of profit margin are we thinking the current Switch is getting? Can it potentially get a price drop before Xmas to give it one last big boost before Switch 2?

if they don't do a pricecut, i don't know how nintendo expects to sell their expected forecast for this year when theres considerably less hard hitting games than last year, which literally had major mario and zelda as headlines lmao

if that forecast does prove true though then it'll be fun to see the switch breathing down the ps2's neck for 3 months

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Switch was already selling very well prior to the pandemic. It didn't make new sales out of thin air. It sped up people's decision to buy one sooner than later.

No. It made sales out of a populace that would not have spent money on gaming. Gaming expenditure was at beyond record levels during the pandemic. Anyone who thinks these people would have engaged with gaming anyway is wrong. I encourage people to think about this seriously. What you and others are suggesting makes 0 sense with the available data.

And the 1st 3 months of 2020 the Switch was trending down YOY in most marketd until thr pandemic went into full effect especially in the West.

The Switch was a very successful console that was going to do well regardless but the circumstances that lead to it's record pace are not repeatable.

 

[omniryu]

for Drake this image would be more telling

Ark 2 is gonna be a doozy

It is crazy that 300p is still a thing in 2024 in the year of our 4K consoles.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

It would be awesome if Switch 2 was $600.

Gotta keep the riff-raff out.

 

[TLZ]

It would be awesome if Switch 2 was $600.

Gotta keep the riff-raff out.

Make that $999 and you have a winner.

 

[Shoulder]

if they don't do a pricecut, i don't know how nintendo expects to sell their expected forecast for this year when theres considerably less hard hitting games than last year, which literally had major mario and zelda as headlines lmao

if that forecast does prove true though then it'll be fun to see the switch breathing down the ps2's neck for 3 months

On the flip side, despite the lowered forecasts, people are still buying the Switch, so there could be a balancing act of wanting to continue selling Switch 1, while still pushing Switch 2 at launch.

Compared to previous generations, I fully expect Switch 1 to be supported rather than dropped the moment successor hits store shelves.

Not to mention I fully anticipated cross-gen titles. The customers who buy a Switch 1 now, and a Switch 2 at launch are not the same customer.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It would be awesome if Switch 2 was $600.

Gotta keep the riff-raff out.

you mean the...welfare queens?

/s

It is crazy that 300p is still a thing in 2024 in the year of our 4K consoles.

a harsh reminder that some devs will choose to forego resolution for their vision. and still not hit it, for some of them

 

[Beansy]

Could we get Nate to confirm that he's not a young Japanese girl masquerading as an American man?

 

[SoldierDelta]

Could we get Nate to confirm that he's not a young Japanese girl masquerading as an American man?

The bigger plot twist is if Nate was a Japanese girl. Gotta appreciate someone going the extra mile in comparison.


Moving swiftly and abruptly on, I feel a bit crazy for thinking that it's been... incredibly quiet on the Switch 2 front right? I haven't seen any other mention, reveal or potential for a Switch 2 port for any game based on public information. I posted about the Clair Obscur question but that's literally all i've found and heard. A part of me honestly thinks that Nintendo is stockpiling these kinds of reveals until the close months before the Switch 2 releases because there's no reason for basically all companies to stay quiet otherwise. It feels odd to me. Maybe it's because there wasn't even a name to refer to it as? It doesn't feel normal for a game system's lead-up to be as quiet as this...

Maybe I'm going insane, maybe the voices in my head are right and I should be quiet in the meantime.

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

you mean the...welfare queens?

/s


a harsh reminder that some devs will choose to forego resolution for their vision. and still not hit it, for some of them

My unemployment check is $1050 every 2 weeks so Nintendo has a lot of pricing power

 

[Steve]

The bigger plot twist is if Nate was a Japanese girl. Gotta appreciate someone going the extra mile in comparison.


Moving swiftly and abruptly on, I feel a bit crazy for thinking that it's been... incredibly quiet on the Switch 2 front right? I haven't seen any other mention, reveal or potential for a Switch 2 port for any game based on public information. I posted about the Clair Obscur question but that's literally all i've found and heard. A part of me honestly thinks that Nintendo is stockpiling these kinds of reveals until the close months before the Switch 2 releases because there's no reason for basically all companies to stay quiet otherwise. It feels odd to me. Maybe it's because there wasn't even a name to refer to it as? It doesn't feel normal for a game system's lead-up to be as quiet as this...

Maybe I'm going insane, maybe the voices in my head are right and I should be quiet in the meantime.

Midori (mystic) quite literally played us like a fiddle, all my hopes and dreams about Atlus games on Switch is now dead and buried, Capcom are now investing more to the PC Market and Mobile, compared to the Switch, Square Enix are desperate they also gave us a cloud version of KH, which still is pissing me off.

All i have now is good ol reliable Ubisoft... Which isn't much, but it's something.

I truly feel like Mystic was the one keeping Switch 2 talk hyped and somehow foreshadowing Switch 2 Japanese support.

it's actually amusing that the biggest Switch supporter are Indies and western Devs, like i'm now believing that we'll see a higher third party support from western dev, compared to the Japanese devs, similar to the Switch, when Bethesda and Ubisoft were feeding us good.

 

[Ojoloco]

Could we get Nate to confirm that he's not a young Japanese girl masquerading as an American man?

If he is not the Uncharted man in real life i would be very sad

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

In terms of raw cost, probably 20-25 bucks at most Nintendo would save, which like you suggested, a 50 dollar price differential would then make sense. And quite honestly, an all digital Switch 2 would mean more profit margins compared to a Switch with a physical slot, especially when you buy their own games from the eShop at the full price at that point.

If the standard Switch 2 is 400 dollars, Switch 2 Digital would be about tree fiddy. Only problem with that is you're then cutting into the Switch OLED, which naturally could mean a price drop for the OLED model until it's phased out completely.

What hardware would Nintendo save on that could amount too $20+?

Clearly not the game slots.

The digital-only consoles are about making more money on software, not saving money on hardware.

 

[Dekuman]

Nintendo does not want another 3DS type launch in terms of a shocking price (which I would say be 450-500 dollars for Switch 2). $399 would be perfect, plus it allows breathing room between it, and Switch 1 if a price drop happens.

I agree Nintendo does not want to make another 3DS style pricing error, but your frame of reference is off.
I think $399 is the low end of the pricing and $450 is much more likely with $500 being a high outlier price.

@JoshuaJSlone summed it up best with his post here.

I've bookmarked it and will link to it everytime someone suggests anything above $399 is bad. I think $399 was a reasonable price for a Switch Pro ,... in 2022 but we're well past that now. And inflation that happened during COVID has shaped general prices in the economy. A lot of people still think we're in 2019 speculating about Switch Pro.

Keep in mind even if Switch 2 launches at $450 it will be priced competitively with the reduced priced PS5 (digital slim) and still less expensive than the PS5 Slim Disc version at $500. For comparison, Switch OG launched in 2017 priced higher than the PS4 slim.

 

[Steve]

I agree Nintendo does not want to make another 3DS style pricing error, but your frame of reference is off.
I think $399 is the low end of the pricing and $450 is much more likely with $500 being a high outlier price.

@JoshuaJSlone summed it up best with his post here.

I've bookmarked it and will link to it everytime someone suggests anything above $399 is bad. I think $399 was a reasonable price for a Switch Pro ,... in 2022 but we're well past that now. And inflation that happened during COVID has shaped general prices in the economy. A lot of people still think we're in 2019 speculating about Switch Pro.

Keep in mind even if Switch 2 launches at $450 it will be priced competitively with the reduced priced PS5 (digital slim) and still less expensive than the PS5 Slim Disc version at $500. For comparison, Switch OG launched in 2017 priced higher than the PS4 slim.

The Switch 2 just needs a ground breaking 3D Mario and we're good.

i wouldn't be surprised if BC would play a huge role, similar to the PS5.

Also hopefully we'll get a pack in title included, maybe botw remaster or something like that, maybe Wii Sports HD.

Lastly 400$-450$ seems the likeliest, since the Oled is 350$ and selling hotcakes, like it's somehow outselling the Series S. so a 100$ difference isn't that bad.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Spoiler: Unpopular price opinion

I used to be in the 399.99 camp, but after reading this I'm more convinced that $450 is more realistic. Nintendo hasn't touched the price of the OG Switch for the duration of its lifetime, which is quite the feat given inflation. That being said, it seems like they used the following to sustain its MSRP:
-using parts that are not bleeding-edge
-stockpiling parts at cheaper prices
-replacing parts with cheaper components over time
-releasing & pushing an OLED model that is more profitable with a higher MSRP
Sure, they could use all these tricks for the new model, but given another 7-8 year lifecycle on Switch 2, projecting current inflation rates out that far does not look great in today's global-economic environment. If they set a $450 price up front with a healthy margin, that margin might be entirely eaten up by inflation over the coming years.

Or maybe that's what all that component stockpiling was about in their officially released company financials.

The bolded has not been true since the model released. According to their 3rd qtr FY’24 results

Despite Nintendo Switch - OLED Model, which has a lower profit margin than other models in the Nintendo Switch Family…

 

[Concernt]

The bolded has not been true since the model released. According to their 3rd qtr FY’24 results

A lower profit margin but higher price could still mean a higher... Profit.

I don't think they've been terribly clear with us.

 

[omniryu]

a harsh reminder that some devs will choose to forego resolution for their vision. and still not hit it, for some of them

idk, to me it, is like see a truck getting railed by a train. A beautiful disaster.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

A lower profit margin but higher price could still mean a higher... Profit.

I don't think they've been terribly clear with us.

I mean sure but given the context whenever they have talked about this device I doubt it. They have been pretty clear since that Mochizuki article.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

On the flip side, despite the lowered forecasts, people are still buying the Switch, so there could be a balancing act of wanting to continue selling Switch 1, while still pushing Switch 2 at launch.

Compared to previous generations, I fully expect Switch 1 to be supported rather than dropped the moment successor hits store shelves.

Not to mention I fully anticipated cross-gen titles. The customers who buy a Switch 1 now, and a Switch 2 at launch are not the same customer.

It's inaccurate to judge whether Nintendo will continue to support switch1 after March 2025 just by whether or not there are still games logged into switch, the 3DS still has games logged in in 2018 and according to Furukawa's previous statement support for switch1 will continue until March 2025, which basically means that at the time of the launch of switch2The switch1 will still still have games logged in like the 3ds, but other than originally pre-ordered cross gen games and games logged into the switch1, other games will be logged directly into the switch2 instead of the switch1.

 

[NateDrake]

If he is not the Uncharted man in real life i would be very sad

I was at a PS Vita launch event and Sony PR told me I looked like Nathan Drake... party due to the fact I was wearing a henley.

 

[CalmMind]

Spoiler: Unpopular price opinion

I used to be in the 399.99 camp, but after reading this I'm more convinced that $450 is more realistic. Nintendo hasn't touched the price of the OG Switch for the duration of its lifetime, which is quite the feat given inflation. That being said, it seems like they used the following to sustain its MSRP:
-using parts that are not bleeding-edge
-stockpiling parts at cheaper prices
-replacing parts with cheaper components over time
-releasing & pushing an OLED model that is more profitable with a higher MSRP
Sure, they could use all these tricks for the new model, but given another 7-8 year lifecycle on Switch 2, projecting current inflation rates out that far does not look great in today's global-economic environment. If they set a $450 price up front with a healthy margin, that margin might be entirely eaten up by inflation over the coming years.

Or maybe that's what all that component stockpiling was about in their officially released company financials.

There is nothing realistic about $450 for a new Nintendo device in this or any economy -- EVER.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

There is nothing realistic about $450 for a new Nintendo device in this or any economy -- EVER.

Not unrealistic, but the price level would be less attractive and the ability to price it at $399 would need to be determined by whether or not they think they can maintain profit margins for the entire switch2 generation, $450 would undoubtedly allow them to secure a hardware profit margin.

I don't think humans can really have it both ways, demanding a generational leap in performance while keeping the price in a low enough category that $450 pricing is theoretically possible considering Nintendo can't sell the machine at a loss right now.

 

[windyoshi]

Does anyone have a link to that document that was a summary of everything in this thread with general estimations of the final specs of the Switch 2?