StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Kenka]

Why? These apps are basically just web pages and tied to individual accounts users have with Hulu or YouTube whoever. What reason would Nintendo have to dissolve their licensing agreements with those companies and remove them? For all their insistence that the Switch is dedicated to gaming, they were still ok with these apps on their device.

In my original post, I listed a few bullet points about what could be present in the next Switch. This somewhat pessimistic take was a reminder of what's (still) in the realm of the possible and axing streaming services to avoid paying license fees is very much possible.

My aim with this exercise was not trying to list the likliest elements to take the boot or to be included in the next console's feature set but more an attempt at grounding the discussion in reality.

 

[Serif]

In my original post, I listed a few bullet points about what could be present in the next Switch. This somewhat pessimistic take was a reminder of what's (still) in the realm of the possible and axing streaming services to avoid paying license fees is very much possible.

My aim with this exercise was not trying to list the likliest elements to take the boot or to be included in the next console's feature set but more an attempt at grounding the discussion in reality.

You might as well have listed no BC, digital only in all models, 4K output disabled, and reuse of the same joy cons. These are all in the realm of the possible, but there is no reason to expect them.

It's pretty much the consensus in this thread that to reconcile the good specs and modern components with making an affordable device, Nintendo may need to cost cut elsewhere. We may end up with WiFi 5 instead of 6. The screen could be LCD. The joy con sticks may not be hall effect. Most people understand the ballpark performance of the console and that it cannot reach 4K/60 in every game. And re: your edit about handheld mode - I don't see why first party Nintendo games can't hit 1080p after DLSS in mobile.

Your bullet points are a worse case scenario, but that contradicts the idea of trying to ground anything in reality. (And that's not how your post came across with the 'you will get'). As if anything needed to be grounded in the first place. We've been in a cycle of trying to 'groud expectations' in this thread for years about what to anticipate for the next Nintendo hardware, and the actual leaked information exceeds it.

 

[ILikeFeet]

In my original post, I listed a few bullet points about what could be present in the next Switch. This somewhat pessimistic take was a reminder of what's (still) in the realm of the possible and axing streaming services to avoid paying license fees is very much possible.

My aim with this exercise was not trying to list the likliest elements to take the boot or to be included in the next console's feature set but more an attempt at grounding the discussion in reality.

what licensing fee is being paid?

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Unless third parties insist on not using dlss, we won't see games running below 1080p in handheld mode. (Regardless of how low the rendering resolution is) Nintendo first parties on the other hand will be more likely to utilize dlss aggressively.

 

[Kenka]

You might as well have listed no BC, digital only in all models, 4K output disabled, and reuse of the same joy cons. These are all in the realm of the possible, but there is no reason to expect them.

It's pretty much the consensus in this thread that to reconcile the good specs and modern components with making an affordable device, Nintendo may need to cost cut elsewhere. We may end up with WiFi 5 instead of 6. The screen could be LCD. The joy con sticks may not be hall effect. Most people understand the ballpark performance of the console and that it cannot reach 4K/60 in every game. And re: your edit about handheld mode - I don't see why first party Nintendo games can't hit 1080p after DLSS in mobile.

Your bullet points are a worse case scenario, but that contradicts the idea of trying to ground anything in reality. (And that's not how your post came across with the 'you will get'). As if anything needed to be grounded in the first place. We've been in a cycle of trying to 'groud expectations' in this thread for years about what to anticipate for the next Nintendo hardware, and the actual leaked information exceeds it.

Pardon me for being blunt with this question but are you suggesting that my post is inept?

 

[Shoulder]

I think if Nintendo cost-cut anywhere on the hardware, it'll be on the screen, but not for the reasons you think. They may cost-cut in terms of not using an OLED screen, but still use a high-quality LCD screen that is also 8 years newer than what is present in OG Switch. Hell, it might even have HDR, though I don't expect 120hz, or even VRR.

They'll use the largest battery they can reasonably fit given the size constraints, probably clock the CPU at 1.0-1.3GHz, and GPU may in fact for handheld be whatever is peak efficiency to maximize battery life (say 550mhz). As far as Ram is concerned, the customs data suggested a max MT/s rate of 8533 given it's highly suggested to be LPDDR5x. Handheld mode will probably drop that down to 6500 MT/s or something, and Docked will probably max out at 7500 MT/s. I doubt it'll be at the max, which I believe the LPDDR4 memory in the Switch was never at its max speed either.

This is all assuming there's enough thermal headroom, which given it's supposed to be larger would suggest the cooling system is more robust. That said, even Erista Switch at overclocked speeds doesn't even break 70c under load if I recall correctly. So Nintendo was being a bit conservative, and likely will do the same for Switch 2.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I think if Nintendo cost-cut anywhere on the hardware, it'll be on the screen, but not for the reasons you think. They may cost-cut in terms of not using an OLED screen, but still use a high-quality LCD screen that is also 8 years newer than what is present in OG Switch. Hell, it might even have HDR, though I don't expect 120hz, or even VRR.

They'll use the largest battery they can reasonably fit given the size constraints, probably clock the CPU at 1.0-1.3GHz, and GPU may in fact for handheld be whatever is peak efficiency to maximize battery life (say 550mhz). As far as Ram is concerned, the customs data suggested a max MT/s rate of 8533 given it's highly suggested to be LPDDR5x. Handheld mode will probably drop that down to 6500 MT/s or something, and Docked will probably max out at 7500 MT/s. I doubt it'll be at the max, which I believe the LPDDR4 memory in the Switch was never at its max speed either.

This is all assuming there's enough thermal headroom, which given it's supposed to be larger would suggest the cooling system is more robust. That said, even Erista Switch at overclocked speeds doesn't even break 70c under load if I recall correctly. So Nintendo was being a bit conservative, and likely will do the same for Switch 2.

There's no reason why you can't hit 7500mt/s in docked mode, though handheld mode definitely reduces RAM speed.

Also a reasonable guess of the cpu frequency would be locked at 1.7 or 1.8ghz, and the gpu frequency of 550mhz is just a midpoint in the 500-600mhz peak range, it doesn't mean that 550mhz is the exact exact peak.

 

[Giancarlo]

I honestly feel they will cut the price on existing Switch systems around the time the Switch 2 is unveiled. They are making bank on them right now for not having discounted them since each version's release. In one way, with it having a high chance of backwards compatibility, they want to make the Switch 2 enticing, and to me, that comes with having a bigger gap between the old and the new, but not making the new too expensive. Keeping the old ones at the current price would cause those sales to plummet.

With all this talk about the system price, what about the games? Think they will stick to $60 for most of them?

$70 for bigger scale games and $40/60 to small/medium scale games

 

[Concernt]

When the performance of the console has not yet been announced, discussing the price is meaningless in practice.

Pricing is dependent on market conditions, business operations, and component costs.

Clock speed is not relevant to the price. What's relevant to the price is the heat sink.

There's a lot of unknowns, sure, though making some baseline assumptions with regard to cost per wafer and chips per wafer, the T239 SOC really isn't all that expensive. It isn't the part making this device cost more, and so its performance just isn't that relevant to the price discussion.

This device will likely use more materials, more modern, less mature parts, higher specifications in nearly every area, additional components in the controllers. A death of a thousand cuts - a price reflecting a thousand tiny upgrades.

We can't even say with absolute certainty that it will have a pricetag - we don't know for certain that Nintendo won't rent them out on a subscription basis. This, however, is unlikely. In this same way we can rule out it being the same price as their existing units, this is unlikely.

Unfortunately, one of their existing devices already launched at the equivalent of over $400 in some regions.

Which means that, on balance, the ~400+ range seems the most likely, since it also seems unlikely that they want to hit $/€500.

This is all just speculation, part of the point of this place, no?

If Nintendo proves me wrong and shakes up the lineup to fit it, and ends up pricing their new device at $349.99 at launch, I will be surprised, but of course I would be glad.

 

[Brofield]

ADATA has opened a new page for the microSD Express card.

Premier Extreme microSDXC SD7.1 Express Card

www.adata.com

Wow! lol

Hey hey, I was only a few hours too early for more news on SD Express

something something duality of humanity; this image means nothing vs this image is a hint

 

[Serif]

Unless third parties insist on not using dlss, we won't see games running below 1080p in handheld mode. (Regardless of how low the rendering resolution is) Nintendo first parties on the other hand will be more likely to utilize dlss aggressively.

There might be an unusual scenario where a third party game is using FSR2 (maybe if they've already implemented it on the other systems and didn't have time to use DLSS). That would still be fine. Silly, but fine. I've tested like 360p to 720p FSR2 on Steam Deck and it was ok on the 7.4 inch screen, not ideal but better than how Switch impossible port image quality tends to fare. There are so many solutions to upscale games nowadays I'd be surprised to see actual sub-native content, excepting unpatched Switch 1 games. Worse comes to worse let's interlace, checkerboard or integer scale.

 

[Secu]

Pricing is dependent on market conditions, business operations, and component costs.

Clock speed is not relevant to the price. What's relevant to the price is the heat sink.

There's a lot of unknowns, sure, though making some baseline assumptions with regard to cost per wafer and chips per wafer, the T239 SOC really isn't all that expensive. It isn't the part making this device cost more, and so its performance just isn't that relevant to the price discussion.

This device will likely use more materials, more modern, less mature parts, higher specifications in nearly every area, additional components in the controllers. A death of a thousand cuts - a price reflecting a thousand tiny upgrades.

We can't even say with absolute certainty that it will have a pricetag - we don't know for certain that Nintendo won't rent them out on a subscription basis. This, however, is unlikely. In this same way we can rule out it being the same price as their existing units, this is unlikely.

Unfortunately, one of their existing devices already launched at the equivalent of over $400 in some regions.

Which means that, on balance, the ~400+ range seems the most likely, since it also seems unlikely that they want to hit $/€500.

This is all just speculation, part of the point of this place, no?

If Nintendo proves me wrong and shakes up the lineup to fit it, and ends up pricing their new device at $349.99 at launch, I will be surprised, but of course I would be glad.

I use the term performance to include things beyond hardware parameters, such as dock, whether it is a pure digital version, etc. (Bad English. I wanted to express the meaning of the presentation, but just realized that the translator told me it was a performance parameter.)

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

There might be an unusual scenario where a third party game is using FSR2 (maybe if they've already implemented it on the other systems and didn't have time to use DLSS). That would still be fine. Silly, but fine. I've tested like 360p to 720p FSR2 on Steam Deck and it was ok on the 7.4 inch screen, not ideal but better than how Switch impossible port image quality tends to fare. There are so many solutions to upscale games nowadays I'd be surprised to see actual sub-native content, excepting unpatched Switch 1 games. Worse comes to worse let's interlace, checkerboard or integer scale.

FSR2 and DLSS2 are similar enough that when games support only one or the other it seems like modders force the other to work within a few days. I think the bigger source of non-DLSS titles will just be ports of games that never used any fancy upscaling to begin with and they consider adding it not worth the effort.

 

[Serif]

FSR2 and DLSS2 are similar enough that when games support only one or the other it seems like modders force the other to work within a few days. I think the bigger source of non-DLSS titles will just be ports of games that never used any fancy upscaling to begin with and they consider adding it not worth the effort.

Yeah I won't dispute it's technically feasible to implement and I would expect it. I had edge cases like Starfield on the mind (yes I know, there was an AMD marketing thing with that apparently and it eventually added DLSS support), and sharing my own experience on Deck. I think even the games without fancy upscaling - the default linear filtering to 1080p from 720p should look fine. It would be an improvement from the 360p/480p + TAA + sharpening -> linear upscale to 720p of Xenoblade DE/2.

If a game ships with really low handheld mode resolution (like sub 720p) and doesn't use any upscaling whatsoever, I would certainly hope no one blames the Switch 2.

 

[Shoulder]

There's no reason why you can't hit 7500mt/s in docked mode, though handheld mode definitely reduces RAM speed.

Also a reasonable guess of the cpu frequency would be locked at 1.7 or 1.8ghz, and the gpu frequency of 550mhz is just a midpoint in the 500-600mhz peak range, it doesn't mean that 550mhz is the exact exact peak.

Oh I know there's no real reason. It's more, "What are Nintendo's own reasons?"

Between the thermal system, power consumption, comfort while handhelding under load, and other reasons, Nintendo is considering all of those.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Oh I know there's no real reason. It's more, "What are Nintendo's own reasons?"

Between the thermal system, power consumption, comfort while handhelding under load, and other reasons, Nintendo is considering all of those.

Since the dock was found with a fan in the customs data, there's reason to believe that Nintendo will be pulling up the frequency this time around.

 

[rick_C]

Pardon me for being blunt with this question but are you suggesting that my post is inept?

Everyone in here know that we have a cost limit, and Nintendo try to make a trade off between each component. THAT is the reality.

But now you try to tell me "they use cheap LCD, so bad", "they use cheap plastic case, so bad". You seems don't even know what reality is, just keep asking for unreasonable things. We all know what the trade off is, reminder is not needed.

Also it contain some incorrect claim, which was explained by @Serif.

 

[Kenka]

Everyone in here know that we have a cost limit, and Nintendo try to make a trade off between each component. THAT is the reality.

But now you try to tell me "they use cheap LCD, so bad", "they use cheap plastic case, so bad". You seems don't even know what reality is, just keep asking for unreasonable staff. We all know what the trade off is, reminder is not needed.

Fine. Would you enlighten me about your take on the casing and the screen?

Honest question. Personally, I know what compromises are made in a broad sense to ensure a low price in the screen technology space. I thought I'd bring a meaningful contribution.

But if you think I am trolling, fine. I'll accept the comment and move on.

 

[OctoSplattack]

Accidentally had this thread on "ignore" for a week. Did I miss anything?

 

[Shoulder]

Since the dock was found with a fan in the customs data, there's reason to believe that Nintendo will be pulling up the frequency this time around.

That, or the node process isn’t what we think it is, and more thermal headroom is required in docked mode.

Mind you, I am about 98% certain it is NOT SEC8N, but only maybe 80% that it’s TSMC 4N.

Like you said though, maybe Nintendo plan on supercharging the Switch 2 in docked mode, but the power gap between docked, and handheld cannot be so vastly different either, especially with a 1080p screen.

But sure, this is where things like DLSS come in, which could in fact be implemented like how Anti-Aliasing was in N64 games. In which case, the whole resolution argument might be moot at that point. DLSS could be that “secret sauce” that punches it above its weight to where people look at games, and think, “this looks like a PS5 game!”

What puzzles me though is T239 at TSMC 4N is supposed to be I think the size of Mariko, correct, or somewhere around there? And Mariko Switch has no trouble cooling that. And even if T239 was using similar power figures as Erista Switch, the cooling system can handle it just fine.

To me at least, I find the idea of an auxiliary cooling fan a strange one.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

That, or the node process isn’t what we think it is, and more thermal headroom is required in docked mode.

Mind you, I am about 98% certain it is NOT SEC8N, but only maybe 80% that it’s TSMC 4N.

Like you said though, maybe Nintendo plan on supercharging the Switch 2 in docked mode, but the power gap between docked, and handheld cannot be so vastly different either, especially with a 1080p screen.

But sure, this is where things like DLSS come in, which could in fact be implemented like how Anti-Aliasing was in N64 games. In which case, the whole resolution argument might be moot at that point. DLSS could be that “secret sauce” that punches it above its weight to where people look at games, and think, “this looks like a PS5 game!”

What puzzles me though is T239 at TSMC 4N is supposed to be I think the size of Mariko, correct, or somewhere around there? And Mariko Switch has no trouble cooling that. And even if T239 was using similar power figures as Erista Switch, the cooling system can handle it just fine.

To me at least, I find the idea of an auxiliary cooling fan a strange one.

The most plausible explanation is that a larger battery is needed to maintain endurance no lower than the switch V1, but you're right, there's no theory that proves that it's necessarily 4N, and given that drake has new power-saving tech, everything is subject to change, but given that we know the dlss document's power consumption data, which according to LIC is valuable, I don't think that that data can be run on 8nm.

 

[RedSpring]

If the switch2 will be sold for $450, the price isn't much lower than current pc handhelds and higher than steam decks.

The one that can compete with the current expected Switch specs is much more expensive and the market for handheld pc is unlikely to settle for less performance.

 

[kvetcha]

Accidentally had this thread on "ignore" for a week. Did I miss anything?

Nothing of note.

 

[Shoulder]

The most plausible explanation is that a larger battery is needed to maintain endurance no lower than the switch V1, but you're right, there's no theory that proves that it's necessarily 4N, and given that drake has new power-saving tech, everything is subject to change, but given that we know the dlss document's power consumption data, which according to LIC is valuable, I don't think that that data can be run on 8nm.

One thought that has occurred to me is this hypothetical cooling fan perhaps isn't so much for the SoC, but more for the battery itself, especially when it's charging. Maybe it sits idle when normally in docked mode, and kicks on when its charging. One issue though with this hypothesis is what happens when you charge your Switch 2 without the dock? One thought is no matter what charging brick you have, it'll limit its charging speed unless it's in the dock. But that brings another question such as when you're gaming in handheld, but also charging such as if you're on a long flight over the ocean? It would almost seem it could not charge it as effectively in that case.

So an aux fan for the battery is probably out of the question then, though certainly not impossible. Active cooling while charging a battery is nothing new, though would certainly be a new thing for a handheld device I think.

That leaves me with another idea. This whole "dock with a fan" came from some insider, correct? I don't recall it was mentioned in shipping data, though there's so much info in those, maybe it was. Either way, maybe this aux fan isn't even for us consumers, and instead is designed, and made for developers. Because chances are, since they're debugging code, have more ram on tap, maybe the SoC is clocked higher as well, and maybe running things at, or even above max limits, it might require additional cooling.

 

[DinoPulse]

I just had this thought, given I'd been thinking about it for a bit.
Do 1TB MicroSD Express cards even exist right now?
after googling, Between SanDisk, Samsung, and Adata, all I see so far is 256 and 512.
Asking because I've been thinking about getting a higher capacity card when the time comes.
Practically ever since the MicroSD Express talk earlier back in May.
Also keeping the later release of the Switch 2 in mind.

 

[oldpuck]

The iPad 10th gen is $350 new, and iPad 9th gen is $250 new on Amazon as of right now. I know how much an iPad costs but the question marks were meant to reflect how sales on them can come and go.

I get your point, but I don't know that it's useful to compare the discounted price of a last-gen device to the new price of a next-gen one. Don't get me wrong, these prices matter, because it represents real products customers could buy. But so do Switches, which will become even cheaper when the next Switch comes out. So do Switch Lites, which I can get new on Amazon for $170.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

One thought that has occurred to me is this hypothetical cooling fan perhaps isn't so much for the SoC, but more for the battery itself, especially when it's charging. Maybe it sits idle when normally in docked mode, and kicks on when its charging. One issue though with this hypothesis is what happens when you charge your Switch 2 without the dock? One thought is no matter what charging brick you have, it'll limit its charging speed unless it's in the dock. But that brings another question such as when you're gaming in handheld, but also charging such as if you're on a long flight over the ocean? It would almost seem it could not charge it as effectively in that case.

So an aux fan for the battery is probably out of the question then, though certainly not impossible. Active cooling while charging a battery is nothing new, though would certainly be a new thing for a handheld device I think.

That leaves me with another idea. This whole "dock with a fan" came from some insider, correct? I don't recall it was mentioned in shipping data, though there's so much info in those, maybe it was. Either way, maybe this aux fan isn't even for us consumers, and instead is designed, and made for developers. Because chances are, since they're debugging code, have more ram on tap, maybe the SoC is clocked higher as well, and maybe running things at, or even above max limits, it might require additional cooling.

It's speculation based on customs data, not insiders.

 

[Hosermess]

It's speculation based on customs data, not insiders.

customs data of fan(s) + "insider: more round" comments = fan in dock speculation

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Assuming they actually manage to reach the power consumption figures in the dlss docs with 8nm technology on drake using power saving technology, I'd be very surprised, it would mean that nvidia and nintendo reached a technological miracle.

 

[Brofield]

I just had this thought, given I'd been thinking about it for a bit.
Do 1TB MicroSD Express cards even exist right now?
after googling, Between SanDisk, Samsung, and Adata, all I see so far is 256 and 512.
Asking because I've been thinking about getting a higher capacity card when the time comes.
Practically ever since the MicroSD Express talk earlier back in May.
Also keeping the later release of the Switch 2 in mind.

Having since re-read the Samsung press release when I was corrected by @LiC earlier, no microSD Express cards exist right now.

Availability​

The 256GB SD Express microSD card will be made available for purchase later this year, and the 1TB UHS-1 microSD card is set to launch within the third quarter of this year.

As for Western Digital/SanDisk's press release,

Advancing Tomorrow’s Workflow: Delivering Next-Gen Technology, Super Speeds
[...]

SanDisk SD and microSD Express cards are expected to be available at authorized retailers, e-tailers and the Western Digital store this summer.

[...]

• SanDisk® microSD™ Express (128GB/256GB) – With up to 4.4 times faster transfer speeds than Western Digital’s fastest microSD™ UHS-I card2, the SanDisk® microSD Express card offers unprecedented speed, storage, and performance for pros dealing with intensive workflows. This microSD card is also backward compatible for usage with today’s devices.

The Adata press release makes no mention of release date, but curiously their gallery removed all images of a Steam Deck, Switch and Laptop in the background, so now it's just some CG renders of the 512GB microSD card.

When microSD Express releases, the only options available will be 128GB, 256GB and 512GB. That said, I'd be cautious of going any larger than 512GB given that 1TB microSD cards are known for hairline fractures that can short circuit your console.

 

[Dekuman]

Not sure how trustworthy this data it tho, cuz I'm assuming nintendo gets them from the account information. Most people lie about their identity first of all, but I would imagine a lot of kids to play on their parents account or something. I'm not well informed on this matter but I wouldn't really take this face value, although I can see GenZ-Millenials being the majority still.

If true this would apply industrywide and not specific to Nintendo.

 

[gabeplays]

While I do think it says a lot that parents are willing to splurge like crazy on Apple products which are incredibly expensive and incredibly delicate, I'm not sure the two can be compared. The Switch 2 is 'just' a gaming console. The latest Iphone is more of a utility for everyone to stay in touch -- and a calculator, camera, video-recorder, etc. Yes, parents will definitely buy Nintendo's newest console for sure, but they can only get away with pricing it so high unlike Apple. I don't think even Nintendo has quite the same fervor surrounding their products as Apple does.

In any case, the Switch 2 will sell like hotcakes, but it's up to Nintendo to price it competitively enough to keep the momentum going well into the future. The hybrid formfactor isn't quite as new as it used to be (because of them) and I do agree that it was COVID 19 + Animal Crossing that previously took them from already matching the Wii's success (which was the highest they previously were) to doubling that and becoming the most successful they've ever been as a company.

It's not an exaggeration. The Switch 1 rocketed to be as successful as the Wii in just the first few years, but it was the pandemic and Animal Crossing that took them from that previous all-time high to double. It was insane how much the lock-down and chilling with Isabelle and Tom Nook actually helped Nintendo haha.

I doubt this can be replicated however and that's honestly okay. I don't think the Switch 2 is also going to be the most successful system of all time and that's okay. But what they do need to be is be competitive with their marketing and that means trying to get as many Switch 2's into people's houses as possible. They can't do that if it's $500+. The PS5 and Xbox Series S both cost $500 and the Switch 2 is neither competing or as powerful as either of those. In contrast, the Series S is sold for cheap at $300 and the entry-level Steam Deck with an LCD screen is $400.

To me, anywhere between $300-400 is the sweet-spot. I have no idea how much more expensive parts have gotten, but I'd like to think Nintendo is using their massive brand power to get as much of a deal as possible on all components (not just with Nvidia). If they can get this thing as cheap as possible and still make a profit, they'll be rolling in dough for another generation. But I do agree that I don't think the Switch 2 will reach the sky-high profits of the Switch 1 and that's genuinely okay. Switch 1 sales are unlikely to just completely peter off and I fully expect them to continue supporting the Switch 1 for several years after the successor launches, especially to beat the PS2 and nab that "best selling console in video game history" achievement. They have theme parks and movies now. Nintendo is going to be just fine.

(kudos to @pierre485 on Twitter for the image)

 

[Steve]

I’m curious if we’ll see an all digital Switch 2.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

While I do think it says a lot that parents are willing to splurge like crazy on Apple products which are incredibly expensive and incredibly delicate, I'm not sure the two can be compared. The Switch 2 is 'just' a gaming console. The latest Iphone is more of a utility for everyone to stay in touch -- and a calculator, camera, video-recorder, etc. Yes, parents will definitely buy Nintendo's newest console for sure, but they can only get away with pricing it so high unlike Apple. I don't think even Nintendo has quite the same fervor surrounding their products as Apple does.

In any case, the Switch 2 will sell like hotcakes, but it's up to Nintendo to price it competitively enough to keep the momentum going well into the future. The hybrid formfactor isn't quite as new as it used to be (because of them) and I do agree that it was COVID 19 + Animal Crossing that previously took them from already matching the Wii's success (which was the highest they previously were) to doubling that and becoming the most successful they've ever been as a company.

It's not an exaggeration. The Switch 1 rocketed to be as successful as the Wii in just the first few years, but it was the pandemic and Animal Crossing that took them from that previous all-time high to double. It was insane how much the lock-down and chilling with Isabelle and Tom Nook actually helped Nintendo haha.

I doubt this can be replicated however and that's honestly okay. I don't think the Switch 2 is also going to be the most successful system of all time and that's okay. But what they do need to be is be competitive with their marketing and that means trying to get as many Switch 2's into people's houses as possible. They can't do that if it's $500+. The PS5 and Xbox Series S both cost $500 and the Switch 2 is neither competing or as powerful as either of those. In contrast, the Series S is sold for cheap at $300 and the entry-level Steam Deck with an LCD screen is $400.

To me, anywhere between $300-400 is the sweet-spot. I have no idea how much more expensive parts have gotten, but I'd like to think Nintendo is using their massive brand power to get as much of a deal as possible on all components (not just with Nvidia). If they can get this thing as cheap as possible and still make a profit, they'll be rolling in dough for another generation. But I do agree that I don't think the Switch 2 will reach the sky-high profits of the Switch 1 and that's genuinely okay. Switch 1 sales are unlikely to just completely peter off and I fully expect them to continue supporting the Switch 1 for several years after the successor launches, especially to beat the PS2 and nab that "best selling console in video game history" achievement. They have theme parks and movies now. Nintendo is going to be just fine.

(kudos to @pierre485 on Twitter for the image)

After much thought I would agree with the comments about the $450 pricing, and as secu said, what's at stake here is that if Nintendo isn't willing to fall into a black hole of profit, they must choose to continue to have a sufficient profit margin on hardware sales.

The premise is that it really does take $450 to maintain profit margins, depending on a number of factors.

 

[Steve]

After much thought I would agree with the comments about the $450 pricing, and as secu said, what's at stake here is that if Nintendo isn't willing to fall into a black hole of profit, they must choose to continue to have a sufficient profit margin on hardware sales.

Yeah, I’m not expecting a super computer with the Switch 2, but a competent system that’s capable on improving last gen games and also having the capability of playing NG games.

I think it’s important to note that everything we’ve heard, Nintendo are looking at making a competitive system that deals with most of the Switch issues, one example would be ram and making it be 12GB and hopefully bandwidth as well.

Like making a system that’s using everything new is bound to fail, mostly because of price and also manufacturing the system.

Despite the Wii U being a failure, it wasn’t a financial disaster, since Nintendo luckily had the 3DS to keep the lights up.



Lastly do we know if Sony might have an idea of the Switch 2 capabilities, since I’m expecting that this time around they’ll both be competing agains each other heavily this time around, also I’m quite surprised that Sony and Microsoft doesn’t see Nintendo as a competitor? Will this bite them somehow?

 

[Shoulder]

I’m curious if we’ll see an all digital Switch 2.

I've wondered this myself, and think it's possible this time around given the split between digital, and physical is swaying its way towards digital more than it did 7 years ago.

That said, if given the option, I'll opt for one with the cartridge slot since I do have quite a few Switch 1 games.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Yeah, I’m not expecting a super computer with the Switch 2, but a competent system that’s capable on improving last gen games and also having the capability of playing NG games.

While not the point, I need to re-emphasize that if one just thinks of the switch2 as an iterative performance machine, you may be disappointed, and while I'm leaning towards the idea that it may be precisely the array of hardware built around the new gimmick that is really making it's price go up, is $450 still highly appealing to the mass market? I'm leaning towards either Nintendo being able to offer an extremely rich first-party lineup to entice the market, or Nintendo may need to drop the price midway through.

 

[Steve]

I've wondered this myself, and think it's possible this time around given the split between digital, and physical is swaying its way towards digital more than it did 7 years ago.

That said, if given the option, I'll opt for one with the cartridge slot since I do have quite a few Switch 1 games.

I think an all digital Switch 2 would be nice, in a sense that more options are always good, despite me going with the physical.

Like how much money would Nintendo save ,if they go with an all digital since, I feel like digital consoles are somewhat skewed with the pricing, since the PS5 all digital is 400$ compare to the physical, meanwhile the all white Xbox is 450$ compared to the 500$ physical Xbox.

I’m guessing the all digital would be 50$ cheaper than the physical Switch 2 edition.

 

[bmfrosty]

I’m curious if we’ll see an all digital Switch 2.

The reason for an all digital is to save cost on the console hardware. I think the cost of the game card slot is tiny, while the cost of a disc drive is significant. I think we may see it if/when Nintendo has to break backwards compatibility.

 

[DinoPulse]

Having since re-read the Samsung press release when I was corrected by @LiC earlier, no microSD Express cards exist right now.



As for Western Digital/SanDisk's press release,



The Adata press release makes no mention of release date, but curiously their gallery removed all images of a Steam Deck, Switch and Laptop in the background, so now it's just some CG renders of the 512GB microSD card.

When microSD Express releases, the only options available will be 128GB, 256GB and 512GB. That said, I'd be cautious of going any larger than 512GB given that 1TB microSD cards are known for hairline fractures that can short circuit your console.

Oh? Well that I didn't know because I had thought of 1TB at some point when the time comes.
Guessing 512 would be the best option for Switch 2?
Huh.
That's interesting info.

 

[Brofield]

Oh? Well that I didn't know because I had thought of 1TB at some point when the time comes.
Guessing 512 would be the best option for Switch 2?
Huh.
That's interesting info.

Yeah, no doubt 1TB will be coming along before we know it, just not this year. Probably a flip of the coin if it comes out in 2025 or 2026 so long as price isn't an object haha

But yeah, I'd most likely opt for a 512GB card at launch too for future-proofing purposes. At least until these funky 1TB cracks are resolved with the UHS-I speed

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Incredible work.

Ark: Survival Ascended is the worst optimised Unreal Engine 5 game we've seen on console

DF investigates Ark: Survival Ascended. Is this the worst optimised Unreal Engine 5 game we've ever seen? PS5, Series X, Series S and PC tested.

www.eurogamer.net

 

[Shoulder]

I think an all digital Switch 2 would be nice, in a sense that more options are always good, despite me going with the physical.

Like how much money would Nintendo save ,if they go with an all digital since, I feel like digital consoles are somewhat skewed with the pricing, since the PS5 all digital is 400$ compare to the physical, meanwhile the all white Xbox is 450$ compared to the 500$ physical Xbox.

I’m guessing the all digital would be 50$ cheaper than the physical Switch 2 edition.

In terms of raw cost, probably 20-25 bucks at most Nintendo would save, which like you suggested, a 50 dollar price differential would then make sense. And quite honestly, an all digital Switch 2 would mean more profit margins compared to a Switch with a physical slot, especially when you buy their own games from the eShop at the full price at that point.

If the standard Switch 2 is 400 dollars, Switch 2 Digital would be about tree fiddy. Only problem with that is you're then cutting into the Switch OLED, which naturally could mean a price drop for the OLED model until it's phased out completely.

 

[Discostew]

Consoles in their first year are bought by people who aren't price sensitive. They won't have any issue selling a $450 console for the initial 2 years. After the first 40ish million units the price will begin to be a barrier but it isn't set in stone the console will have trouble moving units. We'll have to wait and see. But thinking they'll price the unit at razor thin margins if the avenues to reduce the manufacturing costs are shaky is not realistic.

They had problems selling the 3DS for $250 because of the launch lineup and market conditions. Even Reggie suggested a $200 price tag for it. They ended up slashing it to $170 and trying to appease existing owners by offering them 10 NES and 10 GBA games, the latter which was exclusive to these owners and couldn't be bought separately, making for more contention.

 

[Armoured_Bear]

While I do think it says a lot that parents are willing to splurge like crazy on Apple products which are incredibly expensive and incredibly delicate,

Not in my experience they aren't, quite the opposite.

 

[Discostew]

The Switch 2 is not selling 150m regardless of what Nintendo does. We aren't having another global pandemic. Anyone who thinks this is already operating from a false premise.

Switch was already selling very well prior to the pandemic. It didn't make new sales out of thin air. It sped up people's decision to buy one sooner than later.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Incredible work.

Ark: Survival Ascended is the worst optimised Unreal Engine 5 game we've seen on console

DF investigates Ark: Survival Ascended. Is this the worst optimised Unreal Engine 5 game we've ever seen? PS5, Series X, Series S and PC tested.

www.eurogamer.net

for Drake this image would be more telling

Ark 2 is gonna be a doozy

 

[oldpuck]

To springboard off the price discussion, but in a tech direction.

Purely looking at the hardware as a spec sheet, without Nintendo branding, or Nintendo exclusives, US$450 is a spot on price. If this were another PC handheld, you'd look at the spec sheet, and think, yeah, that makes sense. Compare it to the US$399 Steam Deck. Same storage, comparable GPU and CPU performance, both LCD screens. Less RAM, bigger, higher resolution screen. Joy-Cons, the dock, the clever system of overclocking when docked - all of this adds to system complexity, and at $450, it's cheaper than a Steam Deck + docking station, and is better at being a docked device than the Steam Deck is.

I'm not saying that's what Switch 2 is or whether or not that's a product you'd want. You'd just understand why it exists, it's totally in keeping with the rest of the market. Valve has the lowest margins of any of the handheld manufacturers, so it's pretty reasonable to assume that there isn't a lot of fat to cut off of that price either. If Nintendo wants to make a dollar off the physical device on day one, that's probably where they need to price it. Perhaps some cost cutting and belt tightening could get them to US$400, but I am extremely dubious.

Nintendo's pricing strategy is a whole different kettle of fish. I think it's a little misguided to look at the square peg of their historical pricing and then try to wedge it into round hole of the current inflation driven currency market. Nintendo likely set a target price, in yen, around the time they set the target performance levels. These are interconnected decisions.

Will Nintendo choose to maintain their original target price, and eat the short term hit to the bottom line, hoping to ride out inflation, not knowing how long the current situation will last? Or will they price higher, giving themselves the flexibility to lower the price in response to the market? Will they use regional pricing to account for currency differences, and risk undermining themselves in foreign markets? Or will they use bundling and vouchers as a way to lower the effective cost of the product, without lowering the actual cost of the main unit?

Will Nintendo roll out the launch regionally, putting in higher margin markets first, getting early adopters to pay full price, and then launch in lower margin markets later, after the risk of imports cannibalizing sales goes away? Could Nintendo use special edition SKUs to attract price insensitive folk, while keeping the base unit price low?

How long will Nintendo maintain Switch support, and how long will cross-gen last? Will Nintendo price Switch 2 as a premium device relative to the Switch, and leave the base model prices the same? Or will Switch receive only a subset of titles, and receive a price cut? This is the kind of decision that can great affect how Nintendo can price the device, but also baked into the development of those games, again probably years ago now.

Wild speculation time: Nintendo decides at the last minute that they need to price Switch 2 higher, and they'll get away with it by maintaining Switch 1 support for the launch year. But that means cross-gen can't be some titles but all titles. Nintendo delays Switch 2, not because Switch 2 software isn't ready, but to put together a Switch 1 version of all the previous exclusives.

Do I think this happened? No, not at all. Do I think it reflects that the pricing discussion is well beyond what the BOM of the device is, and what the market would bear for the product in a vacuum? Yes.

 

[VagrantValmar]

I am now convinced that Switch 2 BC in handheld mode will use Switch 1 games in docked mode.
For games that require or support touch screen inputs, it will simply use handheld mode instead.
Nintendo has info on exactly which games use touch screen and which ones do not.
I'd say this is the easiest way to get better results without having to patch individual games.

 

[NineTailSage]

We're not talking about the software lineup, because that's what Nintendo is supposed to do, and if the software lineup isn't deluxe enough in the first year it'll be a replica of the wiiu's dilemma, however the price plays a pretty big deciding factor as well.

Well we know this isn't necessarily true, for Nintendo they have achieved success when both software and the hardware concept align.
In comparing devices like Switch 2 to an iPad though, how do we take talking software out of the equation?

I'm specifically bringing up that Nintendo are in a different bag these days versus during the WiiU.
By leveraging their IP in different mediums, they are reaching another level of popularity that they haven't seen in many moons...