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Pre-Release The Super Mario Bros. Movie Pre-Release Discussion Thread (Now releasing April 5th in the US)

Final Worldwide Box Office Predictions

  • Less than $300 million (Absolute Flop)

    Votes: 2 1.6%

  • $300-450 million (in line with other video game adaptations)

    Votes: 4 3.2%

  • $450-700 million (best video game adaptation, in line with other recent animated films)

    Votes: 26 21.0%

  • $700 million-1 billion (higher tier for all but the biggest hits

    Votes: 43 34.7%

  • $1-1.3 billion (Top 10 highest grossing animated film of all time, Illumination’s biggest success)

    Votes: 34 27.4%

  • $1.3-1.6 billion (Frozen tier)

    Votes: 9 7.3%

  • 1.6 billion+ (unseats the Lion King remake as the most successful animated movie of all time)

    Votes: 6 4.8%
  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .
Status
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Yea 125 millions for the 5 day is still pretty conservative. I think deadline said it's Universal's predictions and that there are indeed other predictions externally that are pretty wilder, but they are trying too keep expectations lower.

It's all about the trades and video game movies are hard to predict. They will 100% prefer low ball the prediction and come out to say "it did better than anticipated" than "it did great but we thought it would do more" conversation.
 
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Machrider said:
125m-150m opening basically would mean Super Mario Bros. 2: The Movie and Donkey Kong: The Movie are probably automatically greenlit. Maybe Luigi's Mansion too.

It's going to be interesting how quickly Universal moves to build out the next movies if this one is a hit. Would they want to go straight to a Mario 2 (which is the general Hollywood playbook) or do Donkey Kong or Luigi's Mansion first?
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Don’t forget a Yoshis Island movie with baby characters.
 
Mario tickets started strong and are ramping up big time. And audience demand polling/metrics are through the roof. Hope you guys are ready for the Nintendo Cinematic Universe.
 
Starphanluke said:
Mario tickets started strong and are ramping up big time. And audience demand polling/metrics are through the roof. Hope you guys are ready for the Nintendo Cinematic Universe.
Click to expand...
It's crazy how this was a meme for so many years but it's about to be an actual thing, at least for Mario and DK.
 
LoneRanger said:
Don’t forget a Yoshis Island movie with baby characters.
Click to expand...

Possibly but I think that might skew a little too much towards kids and turn off adults (case in point: the Yoshi's Island games have always sold a lot less than the standard Mario or even DKC games).

Luigi's Mansion probably is a no brainer of a movie, released around Halloween time it would probably do well.
 
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Machrider said:
125m-150m opening basically would mean Super Mario Bros. 2: The Movie and Donkey Kong: The Movie are probably automatically greenlit. Maybe Luigi's Mansion too.

It's going to be interesting how quickly Universal moves to build out the next movies if this one is a hit. Would they want to go straight to a Mario 2 (which is the general Hollywood playbook) or do Donkey Kong or Luigi's Mansion first?
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Considering we are getting a theme park, I would say we'll be getting a DKC movie before Luigi's Mansion. With that said, I'm not sure which will come next: Mario 2 or DKC. We will certainly get all three though if all goes well. Both Seth and Charlie seem to be hyping up their potential characters' spin off film series.
 
Nathan Little said:
Considering we are getting a theme park, I would say we'll be getting a DKC movie before Luigi's Mansion. With that said, I'm not sure which will come next: Mario 2 or DKC. We will certainly get all three though if all goes well. Both Seth and Charlie seem to be hyping up their potential characters' spin off film series.
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Yeah, the casting of Seth Rogan as DK is a tip off too as he is a guy who has opened movies on his own name before. They clearly are setting up DK as a movie series. DK wouldn't be a bad time to start hinting at a larger universe (ahem ... Smash Bros. eventually).
 
I think maybe Nintendo goes live action with Zelda maybe? That would be the next step if the CG movies are successful, well now can you have success in live action? Even Walt Disney went that route. Though if they do work in a Smash CG movie eventually, I would assume there'd be CG versions of those characters too.
 
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Mekanos said:
I have to imagine a Zelda adaptation is gonna be internally greenlit on opening weekend.
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I think some form of Zelda adaptation certainly will come, but I am not certain what kind it will be. If they keep with Illumination, it could very well be a chance for them to have a "How to Train Your Dragon" moment and pull off something with a little more depth and nuance than we might expect (or it could just be a goofy movie, but I find it less likely). But maybe they'll try for a series in the vein of other recent fantasy hits (maybe even take a few notes from Castlevania, which I would enjoy). I don't find live action super likely, but it could be done. But yeah, I think SOMETHING Zelda will come.

Also give us Xenoblade and Fire Emblem animes, you cowards.
 
Starphanluke said:


New clip does a great job of showing off the score. Some really great new stuff with Koji Kondo classics frequently mixed in.
Click to expand...

I was 6 seconds in but I really need not to watch this. Otherwise I'm gonna spoil myself on all the cool action of the movie. Are there still great action the trailers/spots didn't show off, aside from I guess Bowser vs Mario?
 
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Mario 2
Donkey Kong Country
Luigi's Mansion
The Legend of Zelda
Kirby's Dreamland

Let's go Nintendo Nation! 🤣
 
entut1 said:
I was 6 seconds in but I really need not to watch this. Otherwise I'm gonna spoil myself on all the cool action of the movie. Are there still great action the trailers/spots didn't show off, aside from I guess Bowser vs Mario?
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Didn't follow all the TV spots too closely, but yeah there are.
 
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Phendrift said:
Mario and DK by illumination is something I can gel with

Zelda… I’d have much more reservations about lol
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I think it's more likely they would have Universal (or someone else) do a live action adaptation of it. Nintendo knows the Zelda brand is prestigious not just for Nintendo but gaming in general, and with the huge success of HBO TLOU, I think they are gonna want to position it as a prestige fantasy series.
 
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Starphanluke said:
Mario tickets started strong and are ramping up big time. And audience demand polling/metrics are through the roof. Hope you guys are ready for the Nintendo Cinematic Universe.
Click to expand...

Do the current box office projections seem too low to you? Deadline has it at $125m for the 5 day but I wonder if Universal and trackers are lowballing it so that it doesn't disappoint if it doesn't deliver on the currently high expectations.
 
Gartooth said:
Do the current box office projections seem too low to you? Deadline has it at $125m for the 5 day but I wonder if Universal and trackers are lowballing it so that it doesn't disappoint if it doesn't deliver on the currently high expectations.
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Universal is definitely lowballing. Studios almost always do at this stage. $150m+ five-day total is definitely in play with current pace. Not a lock, but looking likely.
 
Not expecting Illumination to tackle anything that isn't already part of the overall Mario universe (which includes Punch-Out obviously; but I expect that to remain constricted to background cameos we've already seen). Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Wario, Luigi's Mansion; that'd all be with Illumination for certain. Zelda will definitely happen but I see that as a live action series; their "prestige" media shooting for high critical reception. Maybe they'll feel comfortable enough to put Metroid in the same space eventually.

For series like Splatoon, Xenoblade and Fire Emblem I anticipate that TV anime is not out of the question; definitely can't see those being western animation projects.
 
stingylettuce said:
deadline.com

Let’s A-Go: ‘Super Mario Bros Movie’ Leveling Up To $225M+ Global Bow, Possibly Year’s Best So Far – Box Office Preview

Illumination/Universal's The Super Mario Bros Movie is about to run up a serious box office score, eyeing a $225 million-plus opening frame globally.
deadline.com deadline.com


Damn Deadline with these massive predictions - a $225mil+ global opening(!)
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They're lowballing it too. Their domestic projection is $125m and so they only project $100m for international markets.
 
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DecoReturns said:
If it’s tracking for 150 for US. Sounds more like a mid global opening honeslty.
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It's based off the $125m US domestic number, which is already low.

$225m is already a massive global launch, but it should well exceed that.

It is worth noting though, that international presales and interest are waaay harder to gauge then domestic. It's hard to know how it will do in a lot of territories.
 
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WestEgg said:
I think some form of Zelda adaptation certainly will come, but I am not certain what kind it will be. If they keep with Illumination, it could very well be a chance for them to have a "How to Train Your Dragon" moment and pull off something with a little more depth and nuance than we might expect (or it could just be a goofy movie, but I find it less likely). But maybe they'll try for a series in the vein of other recent fantasy hits (maybe even take a few notes from Castlevania, which I would enjoy). I don't find live action super likely, but it could be done. But yeah, I think SOMETHING Zelda will come.

Also give us Xenoblade and Fire Emblem animes, you cowards.
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If they approach Zelda with the same method as Mario, then lack of story shouldn't be a real problem and I think they could strike a good tone. Zelda can be goofy but it needs to be played pretty seriously when it's serious. Who knows. Maybe DreamWorks is a better fit.
 
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stingylettuce said:
deadline.com

Let’s A-Go: ‘Super Mario Bros Movie’ Leveling Up To $225M+ Global Bow, Possibly Year’s Best So Far – Box Office Preview

Illumination/Universal's The Super Mario Bros Movie is about to run up a serious box office score, eyeing a $225 million-plus opening frame globally.
deadline.com deadline.com


Damn Deadline with these massive predictions - a $225mil+ global opening(!)
Click to expand...
Since deadline lowballs their prediction if WOM is good, it will be closer to $255M-$278M WW OW
 
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If it blows up and meets the higher side of expectations this weekend it could be making a run for the biggest non-Disney animated movie of all time.
 
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Since nearly all the impressions mentioned this movie has impressive visuals, I wonder if the budget is around $90mil to $100mil - of course we know Nintendo co-financed this movie as well.
 
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Just finished the ST, ready to post it whenever, but might wait until tomorrow for the reviews to come out.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Dreamworks Zelda makes the most sense. I wouldn't be shocked if it was fast tracked if Dreamworks has capacity
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As long as they go all artsy stylized like Puss in Boots was then I'll be down. I'm loving this new trend of CGI movies that look all painterly.
 
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WestEgg said:
Just finished the ST, ready to post it whenever, but might wait until tomorrow for the reviews to come out.
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Well, I made the review thread and posted it, and it seems a review got out early from Good Vibes Gaming
famiboards.com

The Super Mario Bros. Movie review thread

Some press members (and reliable film insider ViewerAnon) have been given the global review embargo date: This thread has been built to gather all press reviews of the movie. Rotten Tomatoes (TBD) Metacritic (TBD) Points of comparison: Best-reviewed film based on a video game franchise...
famiboards.com famiboards.com
 
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