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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is Probably a Year From Now

How confident are you that one year from now (April 2nd, 2025) you will own a Switch 2 system?

  • Absolutely

    Votes: 104 56.2%
  • No because scalpers will kill my chances

    Votes: 19 10.3%
  • I hope so, but it is probably farther out

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Team second half 2025

    Votes: 13 7.0%
  • Josh, please stop it

    Votes: 20 10.8%

  • Total voters
    185
It's crazy to look back and see that the Switch was soft announced in April 2016, only known as NX and no further details given outside a 2017 release. I wonder how it's going to go this time around?
It's a pretty similar situation in terms of pure radio silence honestly. Except this time there's no pre-announcment.

Nintendo hasn't been good communicating their announcements since their Direct structure changed in 2015 in my opinion. They fall into these stretches of complete radio silence and then have nonsensical spacing of the announcements they do have. (e.g. Skipping a E3 Direct in 2016 because we only have BOTW to show, except these other announcements we're just gonna stick on the treehouse stream. Skipping the June Direct in 2022 for......reasons? Shadowdropping Prime 1 Remastered. Doing Twitter Direct announcements when they could've been served better being saved for actual events. Etc.)
 
they literally make up numbers based on "trends". their accuracy has come in hindsight when official numbers come out and they change their data
Right - I think I've seen that unfold too (before I even heard VGChartz was "controversial"). What kind of numbers are we talking about when they do the adjustment to their estimated numbers?

To my recollection, when official numbers do come from Nintendo, this is where VGChartz make the adjustments, it was not really too far off.

Doesn't VGChartz openly states they do use estimated numbers? In fact, they state this on their site:

On the hardware front we continue to produce weekly estimates, based on retail sampling and trends in individual countries, which are then extrapolated to represent the wider region. This typically allows us to produce figures that end up being within 10% of the actual totals.

10% off actual total seems like somewhat reasonable estimate, and this is only until the numbers on site "reset" once Nintendo announce official hardware sales numbers which I believe is on quarterly basis?

Maybe I look at site differently than others here, because I know I'm looking at potentially estimated hardware sales numbers, at least until Nintendo provides us official hardware numbers, which would then reset VGChartz back to corrected numbers.

If exact sales numbers is the demand, then one should just go with Nintendo's official sales numbers. Just be aware that the next update most likely won't come until the next quarter, and in the meantime, even if VGChartz doesn't exist, folks here and elsewhere are going to make estimates anyway based on how things were trending leading up to Nintendo's last official numbers.
 
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i found it way more liberating to stop caring about what skips the switch at this point. saves money and time. though it might be harder for the people that have to be in the "zeitgeist" or whatever.
I like playing the games I wanna play and sometimes those games are popular and sometimes they’re not

But I also get where you’re coming from
 
I like playing the games I wanna play and sometimes those games are popular and sometimes they’re not

But I also get where you’re coming from
Also, the customization of the Steam Deck seems super appealing too. You basically do whatever you want to it since it's a glorified PC, but also get a console-like experience with the Steam Deck interface. As someone who likes modding consoles, it seems a bit more fulfilling than the Switch atm.
 
Re VGChartz, I'm not up to date with how accurate/inaccurate their estimates are today. But I think a lot of anti-VGChartz sentiment is pretty old, since some of us saw its sometimes goofy origins way back at NeoGAF. Where the guy would combine Famitsu / Media Create / other numbers and try to synthesize them into something he treated as more accurate than any of the individual sources. For something like hardware numbers where we get pretty solid regional data every quarter, the past data should definitely be very accurate, but I feel like that can also give a false sense of security for other estimates which don't get very public updates every few months.
 
Also, the customization of the Steam Deck seems super appealing too. You basically do whatever you want to it since it's a glorified PC, but also get a console-like experience with the Steam Deck interface. As someone who likes modding consoles, it seems a bit more fulfilling than the Switch atm.
I have mixed feelings about it. The OS updates are a pain in the butt, and can make startup take forever. Tweaking settings is fun, until you realize you spent your whole afternoon getting setup and now you don't have time to play.

But when it works, you get games that Just Work out of the box and it feels like a console, but with all the flexibility of a PC. That part is really nice. Not waiting for ports is also nice. And not like @thoughthaver meant with needing to be part of the gaming zeitgeist. I mean legacy games. I don't need to wait for someone to decide that a game from 10-15 years ago is worth rereleasing - it's still there on Steam and it still runs on PC.

Every Supergiant game is on Switch - except Pyre, the one all my game dev friends love but the only one that wasn't a hit. I never played an Elder Scrolls game before Skyrim but the whole series is on Steam. Of course to get some of these games to work, you're back in "tweaking settings, altering OS" world.
 
Re VGChartz, I'm not up to date with how accurate/inaccurate their estimates are today. But I think a lot of anti-VGChartz sentiment is pretty old, since some of us saw its sometimes goofy origins way back at NeoGAF. Where the guy would combine Famitsu / Media Create / other numbers and try to synthesize them into something he treated as more accurate than any of the individual sources. For something like hardware numbers where we get pretty solid regional data every quarter, the past data should definitely be very accurate, but I feel like that can also give a false sense of security for other estimates which don't get very public updates every few months.

Thanks for explanining, makes sense now where the anti-VGChartz sentiment comes from.

As often is with everything in general, context/nuance is important. Goht made a chart that was solely about hardware numbers, which can easily be checked against Nintendo's official numbers. I wouldn't be as quick to dismiss his work as BassForever did.

Nintendo on official basis shows Switch's lifetime sales stood at 139 million as of December 2023. The chart that Goht built, which he said was based on VGChartz data, seems to be spot on - it's right under the 140million line. Also, going by other numbers off Nintendo link here, other graph lines (for other older Nintendo consoles) Goht built off VGChartz data seems to be spot on as well, at least as far as where their rightmost point on the graph line are.
 
I want to say thanks to @JoshuaJSlone for pointing me to Garaph, which if I'm not mistaken he created. This is a really great tool! I've done similarly niche projects (much less useful than this one) so I appreciate that you keep it updated.

I think the VGChartz data was fine in this particular case, like @darthdiablo said. But I'll avoid it in the future. Garaph let me add older consoles as well.

They all follow a fairly normal curve except NES and Game Boy. NES was Japan-only for a couple years and obviously it helped create the home video game market. GBC was a major revision. I'm not sure but I think the underlying data may be a little shakier in the 80s and early 90s as well.

vmXLrmZ.png


This was fun. I'll stop sidetracking the thread.
 
Alright, I have a bit of a strange question for y’all, who will be the TV brand sponsor for the switch 2, these games will probably have amazing HDR games with wonderful colors and eye searing brightness, who would most likely be able to buy the rights to put the beautiful next gen Mario as the demo material for there next gen Mini-LED or OLED TV? Will it be TCL, Hisense, the now Walmart backed Vizio, LG, the most popular TV brand (but unlikely because they have a deal with Microsoft) Samsung, or a classic Nintendo partner Sharp who’s trying to renter the United States TV market. They are all in a scrappy state and buying major marketing deals like this all the time, this seems like something they would bid serious cash over.
 
Alright, I have a bit of a strange question for y’all, who will be the TV brand sponsor for the switch 2, these games will probably have amazing HDR games with wonderful colors and eye searing brightness, who would most likely be able to buy the rights to put the beautiful next gen Mario as the demo material for there next gen Mini-LED or OLED TV? Will it be TCL, Hisense, the now Walmart backed Vizio, LG, the most popular TV brand (but unlikely because they have a deal with Microsoft) Samsung, or a classic Nintendo partner Sharp who’s trying to renter the United States TV market. They are all in a scrappy state and buying major marketing deals like this all the time, this seems like something they would bid serious cash over.
That’s a good question, since i feel like TLC TVs are underrated, because I feel like I’ve had the best experience using a TLC tv for the switch docked.

Also because I have one in my room.
 
Alright, I have a bit of a strange question for y’all, who will be the TV brand sponsor for the switch 2, these games will probably have amazing HDR games with wonderful colors and eye searing brightness, who would most likely be able to buy the rights to put the beautiful next gen Mario as the demo material for there next gen Mini-LED or OLED TV? Will it be TCL, Hisense, the now Walmart backed Vizio, LG, the most popular TV brand (but unlikely because they have a deal with Microsoft) Samsung, or a classic Nintendo partner Sharp who’s trying to renter the United States TV market. They are all in a scrappy state and buying major marketing deals like this all the time, this seems like something they would bid serious cash over.
Sony

gL88KkE.jpeg
 
Maybe it's time to give up on Switch 2 and buy a Steam Deck OLED; at least one of them it's available...

This is what I did just before Christmas, it was looking less and less likely a lot of games I wanted to play on handheld were going to come to Switch or Switch 2 so I invested in a Steam Deck OLED. Honestly, best console purchase since the Switch for me, already used it much more than the PS5 or Xbox Series X (Which I actually sold to fund the Deck)

Never been a PC gamer before and I’ve had no issues using the Steam Deck, the UI is great and it’s very easy to use. Highly recommend it to compliment your Switch.
 
Wouldn’t it make sense that Nintendo releases Nintendo select exclusively on the Nintendo Eshop for those who never bought the game or missed on playing them.

Like most switch games are selling good, but once the switch 2 makes it to market, most people will stop paying them at full price and instead buy the latest next gen Nintendo exclusives.

But having a Nintendo select for switch game at launch of the switch 2 would be appealing for a lot of parents and fans in a marketing stand point, like you’ll move system and the consumers will easily let go of the switch if Nintendo promises

  • Upscaled backward compatibility like the Xbox series X
  • The cheapest way to buy Switch exclusives for either 20-25 buck per game.
  • And consistent release schedule of Next gen exclusives
Also I’ve been thinking recently if Nintendo will try and market the Switch 2 like an media box (Just let it play a small role in marketing and not pull an Xbox one, since I’m in a believe the Xbox just needed to wait a couple of years and most people wouldn’t bat an eye)

Like I’ve been thinking at how weird that Netflix isn’t on the switch, or if any streaming service, since the switch is a match made in heaven.

Or any audio books, manga app (like it would make bank in Japan with their 34 million users), reading app. I don’t know how much these things are influences ram or the os

Like imagine being a parent and realising you buy a media box you can take away with your travel or car trips and download a couple of movies for you kids to watch on a plane ride or a car trip and you get the added bonus of having them the option to play their favourite Mario game, which wouldn’t rot their brain's.

Since the switch from the very beginning was market as a gaming system, which I think was the right move.

what’s everyone’s thoughts since I haven’t heard anyone mentioning the switch 2 being more media friendly to watch movies, shows and reading. (Just a small focus, like an extra bonus you’ll see in a commercial for 10 seconds, I personally don’t want it to be the main selling point of the switch 2)
Ideally they can keep advertising it as a gaming device primarily, but also with multimedia options on the side. There's theoretically nothing stopping them from just having the whole catalog (Netflix, Prime, etc) on there for customer convenience, putting the "games-only device" philosophy aside (which was already ignored by nintendo as the switch has youtube and hulu. Imo it was just a marketing statement that doesn't hold any actual weight)

My only guess, the real reason why they don't is because they're paranoid about one of them becoming an eventual hacker exploit. It's happened a lot in the past. Probably the same reason why the switch doesn't have a browser either.
 
You know what I want in a future update to friends lists? Not only to have the option where you can be in a lobby, but also where it will cross reference all games players have at the same time to make it easier to decide what to play together (or at least allow someone to spectate if they don't own the game).

One friend doesn't have Smash Bros, I don't have Mario Golf or Tennis, another doesn't have Mario Kart 8 out of protest that the DLC should have also come to Wii U (we've long since stopped arguing about that), but it seems the only games we do have in common were N64 NSO, Rocket League and Fall Guys. But I feel like we definitely have more games in common and just don't realize it. Just an option to click: "Here are the people in your lobby. Here is a list of games all of you have played at least once on your profile" (assuming all players have their playtime publicly viewable). Sure, some games were borrowed from a friend, or they are not currently downloaded/patched, or don't even have multiplayer capabilities, but if you're in a lobby with voice chat on your friends list to make it easier to decide, be nice that way.
 
The guy who championed Ryu Ga Gotoku and managed to convince Sega to keep releasing the RGG games in the west is joining Nintendo? Oh, shit @Derachi, it is happening!

(maybe)
Someone mentioned to me that Gio was going to Nintendo over in GenDisc! I don’t necessarily think this means Yakuza is coming to Switch 2 for sure, but it does raise the chances. Also: Gio Corsi is a GREAT get for Nintendo.
 
Thanks for explanining, makes sense now where the anti-VGChartz sentiment comes from.

As often is with everything in general, context/nuance is important. Goht made a chart that was solely about hardware numbers, which can easily be checked against Nintendo's official numbers. I wouldn't be as quick to dismiss his work as BassForever did.

Nintendo on official basis shows Switch's lifetime sales stood at 139 million as of December 2023. The chart that Goht built, which he said was based on VGChartz data, seems to be spot on - it's right under the 140million line. Also, going by other numbers off Nintendo link here, other graph lines (for other older Nintendo consoles) Goht built off VGChartz data seems to be spot on as well, at least as far as where their rightmost point on the graph line are.
I have no problem with the charts @Goht made, they clearly put a lot of effort into it. My point was solely to say there's many years of history of VGChartz not being accurate, and only retroactively being "accurate" if official numbers are released. It's best for someone who's getting interested in doing bigger sales analysis to not rely on VGChartz as a reference. Kinda like citing Wikipedia as your only source, the info might be accurate, but it's not something you should get in the habit of doing.
 
I have no problem with the charts @Goht made, they clearly put a lot of effort into it. My point was solely to say there's many years of history of VGChartz not being accurate, and only retroactively being "accurate" if official numbers are released. It's best for someone who's getting interested in doing bigger sales analysis to not rely on VGChartz as a reference. Kinda like citing Wikipedia as your only source, the info might be accurate, but it's not something you should get in the habit of doing.
VGChartz was open about that in their FAQ section though, so it's not like VGChartz is trying to pass themselves off as being accurate for those numbers.

And yes, Wikipedia is not "accurate", but everybody still uses Wikipedia anyway. It's a good starting point and one can easily follow up on citations listed in the Wikipedia article itself. I don't think Wikipedia is trying to pass itself off as being perfectly accurate either, it is open about how the contents on website is created, it's from collaboration by the general population.

Back to VGChartz, if there's no VGChartz, anyone can take the last official numbers Nintendo shared with us, and make some estimations based on trends leading up to that point, something that's done very often around here (predictions on when Switch numbers will pass PS2 numbers, that sort of thing). This is kind of inevitable even if VGChartz doesn't exist, someone is bound to make estimations, at least for the time period between the datapoints officially shared by Nintendo.

I see it as an issue only if a source tries to pass themselves off as being accurate, something I don't think either VGChartz or Wikipedia did here.
 
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Maybe this is a misinformed thought, but after reading about how UE 5.4 is supposed to be improving its efficiency and hearing Digital Foundry talk about how UE5 has been heavy, I wonder if Switch 2 is served well by entering the market a few years into the PS5/XSX lifespan from an engine support perspective. UE5 seems to be maturing with each iteration, so by the time that Switch 2 support is officially announced, perhaps UE5 will be a more performant option for developers compared to if Switch 2 had launched in 2023. I recall how UE4 for Switch improved as time passed, and while I expect that again, I'm hoping the system will be able to hit the ground running and deploy some UE5 features earlier on without poor results.
 
Maybe this is a misinformed thought, but after reading about how UE 5.4 is supposed to be improving its efficiency and hearing Digital Foundry talk about how UE5 has been heavy, I wonder if Switch 2 is served well by entering the market a few years into the PS5/XSX lifespan from an engine support perspective. UE5 seems to be maturing with each iteration, so by the time that Switch 2 support is officially announced, perhaps UE5 will be a more performant option for developers compared to if Switch 2 had launched in 2023. I recall how UE4 for Switch improved as time passed, and while I expect that again, I'm hoping the system will be able to hit the ground running and deploy some UE5 features earlier on without poor results.
I wonder if Unreal 5 will have a Switch mode like 4 did
 
I wonder if Unreal 5 will have a Switch mode like 4 did
While I don't know the specifics, searching online confirms that Unreal Engine 5 supports Switch. If you're talking about Switch 2 support, I'm sure Nintendo and Epic both would like very solid compatibility and are working towards that right now. If you're talking about a new custom mode in UE5 for Switch beyond what's already there, I doubt Epic would make that investment now unless it's easy to do while building support for Switch 2.
 
What's everyone feeling of Cross gen title for this NG switch, since PS5 and Xbox series had that Issues and are thankfully now starting to utilise it's hardware with games like Alan Wake 2.

Like, In my opinion i only expect remasters, ports and NSO being the only thing being on the switch and smaller obscure titles as well.
 
What's everyone feeling of Cross gen title for this NG switch, since PS5 and Xbox series had that Issues and are thankfully now starting to utilise it's hardware with games like Alan Wake 2.

Like, In my opinion i only expect remasters, ports and NSO being the only thing being on the switch and smaller obscure titles as well.

Most games are still not that demanding. DD2 was the only demanding title released all of Q1 or Q2 this year.
 
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What's everyone feeling of Cross gen title for this NG switch, since PS5 and Xbox series had that Issues and are thankfully now starting to utilise it's hardware with games like Alan Wake 2.

Like, In my opinion i only expect remasters, ports and NSO being the only thing being on the switch and smaller obscure titles as well.
I think Switch is far enough behind in power compared to PS5 and XSX/XSS that cross-gen for Switch will be more limited. However, if a game was already going to be able to run well enough on Switch or would benefit from a large casual or family market (for example, Just Dance), then I think that will happen with some frequency in the first year or two. I don't think Nintendo will do it much outside of a few titles at most, like how 3DS did get the occasional release after Switch's launch.
 
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What's everyone feeling of Cross gen title for this NG switch, since PS5 and Xbox series had that Issues and are thankfully now starting to utilise it's hardware with games like Alan Wake 2.

Like, In my opinion i only expect remasters, ports and NSO being the only thing being on the switch and smaller obscure titles as well.
Same. The only things outside of those are gonna be yearly like Just Dance and NBA, or shovelware like the stuff from Outright Games or GameMill
 
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I remember we used to get a rumor every other day about Switch 2's specs.... launch timing etc etc, right up until that final rumor that said it was delayed into 2025. Has there really been no new rumors? lol
 
I remember we used to get a rumor every other day about Switch 2's specs.... launch timing etc etc, right up until that final rumor that said it was delayed into 2025. Has there really been no new rumors? lol
There's only so many things you can talk about and leak without contradicting a more credible guy. We're basically just stuck until official news actually happens.
 
I remember we used to get a rumor every other day about Switch 2's specs.... launch timing etc etc, right up until that final rumor that said it was delayed into 2025. Has there really been no new rumors? lol
We‘re in a spiraling „it‘s so over“ phase, with repeating topics. We‘ve had enough ebb, where‘s the leak flow?
 


"Our client is on a mission to create a groundbreaking casual, cooperative party game for Nintendo's next-gen console"
I looked into this and posted my full thoughts in the Hardware thread, but I believe the company this is referring to is Next Level Games. They're a Canadian studio who's only recent projects for Switch are LM2R (releasing in June), Mario Strikers (2022) and LM3 (2019). The annoying thing is that this doesn't really align with their previous efforts. "Party game" doesn't really make a lot of sense for them but idk it might be them testing the waters? LM3 did have a multiplayer mode so that's something.

They also don't have obvious experience with UE, so hiring for it does add up. I'm just a bit confused overall, but that's my piece.
 
I looked into this and posted my full thoughts in the Hardware thread, but I believe the company this is referring to is Next Level Games. They're a Canadian studio who's only recent projects for Switch are LM2R (releasing in June), Mario Strikers (2022) and LM3 (2019). The annoying thing is that this doesn't really align with their previous efforts. "Party game" doesn't really make a lot of sense for them but idk it might be them testing the waters? LM3 did have a multiplayer mode so that's something.

They also don't have obvious experience with UE, so hiring for it does add up. I'm just a bit confused overall, but that's my piece.
There are a great many studios in as lot of places that could fit that no one heard of
 
I looked into this and posted my full thoughts in the Hardware thread, but I believe the company this is referring to is Next Level Games. They're a Canadian studio who's only recent projects for Switch are LM2R (releasing in June), Mario Strikers (2022) and LM3 (2019). The annoying thing is that this doesn't really align with their previous efforts. "Party game" doesn't really make a lot of sense for them but idk it might be them testing the waters? LM3 did have a multiplayer mode so that's something.

They also don't have obvious experience with UE, so hiring for it does add up. I'm just a bit confused overall, but that's my piece.
I disagree it's them. A Nintendo owned studio woudnt make the mistake of referencing an unannounced console in a job listing. Could be any small/mid size developer imo.
 
I disagree it's them. A Nintendo owned studio woudnt make the mistake of referencing an unannounced console in a job listing. Could be any small/mid size developer imo.
I mean... sure? It's always possible for something to slip through the cracks, especially with a hiring agency, but it does seem very odd.

That said, I don't think a mid/small developer would have a dev kit and work on a game in the UE4/5 engines. All of the "big publisher" studios like Ubisoft, EA, Rockstar, Coalition... all of them just don't make sense to fit that description.

I'm just confused, I'll give it a rest and wait for someone to piece it together because I'm not finding shit.
 
That said, I don't think a mid/small developer would have a dev kit and work on a game in the UE4/5 engines. All of the "big publisher" studios like Ubisoft, EA, Rockstar, Coalition... all of them just don't make sense to fit that description.

Why? Plenty of indies/ smaller studios use unreal engine.

And if anything this tells me a ton of studios have devkits.
 
Hell you don't even need a dev kit. Or even be registered but just have intentions to be.

Hiring ads can be punched up in ways that aren't completely honest so it's hard to take externally made recruitment ads at face value
 
assuming we get a big presentation for switch 2 like the switch 1 had in January 2017, what do think the big games will be?

for me it's

Prime 4 if cross gen

open world Mario

Mario kart 9/10

2 new ip's

star fox

ending on a teaser trailer for OoT from the ground-up remake or a concept trailer for the next brand new Zelda
 
How far into Switch 2's life do we think we're getting the next Monolith Soft game? I'm hoping it's a "by end of 2025" release. They're so prolific as a studio, and their last major title was released in 2022. However, I imagine making a game for new hardware, especially one that's more powerful, adds onto the development time, so maybe 2026 is more likely. Perhaps a Xenoblade Chronicles X remaster would be a good "training project" they could release faster while they also work on their next big original game. I know there also was that talk of another game they were working on (action RPG or something?), but I don't know how many projects they juggle at once.

I'm just eager for another game from that studio and to see what they do with more powerful hardware.
 
assuming we get a big presentation for switch 2 like the switch 1 had in January 2017, what do think the big games will be?

for me it's

Prime 4 if cross gen

open world Mario

Mario kart 9/10

2 new ip's

star fox

ending on a teaser trailer for OoT from the ground-up remake or a concept trailer for the next brand new Zelda
  • MKX
  • MP4 cross gen
  • Mario3D
  • OoT Remake
  • Mario Party Switch 2
  • DK 2D cross gen
  • Elden Ring
  • RDR2
  • New IP Gimmick
 
How far into Switch 2's life do we think we're getting the next Monolith Soft game? I'm hoping it's a "by end of 2025" release. They're so prolific as a studio, and their last major title was released in 2022. However, I imagine making a game for new hardware, especially one that's more powerful, adds onto the development time, so maybe 2026 is more likely. Perhaps a Xenoblade Chronicles X remaster would be a good "training project" they could release faster while they also work on their next big original game. I know there also was that talk of another game they were working on (action RPG or something?), but I don't know how many projects they juggle at once.

I'm just eager for another game from that studio and to see what they do with more powerful hardware.
There's a possibility we might see Xenoblade 4 in 2025, but I'm not expecting it until 2026.

We know that 3 (and the 1 remake) began development after Torna, so that's a 4 year dev cycle.,
 
assuming we get a big presentation for switch 2 like the switch 1 had in January 2017, what do think the big games will be?
Assuming it takes place in September, I wouldn't go in expecting any announcements of games releasing beyond Summer 2025.
You want one big game almost every month, so with that in mind...

Super Mario Journey and Wii Sports/Nintendo Land/1-2 Switch equivalent for launch in March
Knightmare (New Monolith IP) in April
Mario Kart X in May
Kirby into Another Dimension in July
Hyrule Warriors: Sheikah in August
Donkey Kong: Culture Shock in September (announced later)
Mario Party in October (announced later)
Animal Crossing: Together Forever in November (announced later)

Super Mario Journey is because of the Hero's Journey, not because Odyssey -> Journey even though that does somewhat apply
 


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