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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is Probably a Year From Now

How confident are you that one year from now (April 2nd, 2025) you will own a Switch 2 system?

  • Absolutely

    Votes: 104 56.2%

  • No because scalpers will kill my chances

    Votes: 19 10.3%

  • I hope so, but it is probably farther out

    Votes: 29 15.7%

  • Team second half 2025

    Votes: 13 7.0%

  • Josh, please stop it

    Votes: 20 10.8%
  • Total voters
    185
Reader mode
JoshuaJSlone said:
If this is the case it sure seems they weren't upfront about it with their partners, if third party sources seemed surprised by the 2025 update 1-2 months ago.
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I wouldn't say "not upfront", but people being optimistic. if nintendo told them "launching the FY starting April 2024", then I don't think it's unreasonable for them to think holiday and be surprised it missed it. we'd be too (and are)
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
If this is the case it sure seems they weren't upfront about it with their partners, if third party sources seemed surprised by the 2025 update 1-2 months ago.
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I'm just taking it as the delay was planned for as a contingency, but not expected. On a similar note, I think that studios that were counting on the launch for their revenue may be a bit of a straw man. Most studios are multiplatform anyway. I suspect that games are either developed PC first or Playstation first in most multiplatform cases. I think even Microsoft owned studios are PC first. If a studio was waiting on September for launch for a game, they either shift plans to put out Xbox or PS in the fall instead.
 
Well March has come and gone without a single peep from Nintendo on the Switch 2. When I started this little poll/contest, there was a lot of hope and excitement going around. Sadly, it all dried up pretty quickly. Still, we must go on! As much as I wanted to delay the contest after the news broke, I wanted to be a man of my word. As it stands, here are the winners of the poll.

qxn5v28.png



If someone wants to opt out of the drawing for the $50 eshop gift card, please let me know. I will probably do the drawing in a day or two and have a couple of mods as witnesses.

Thank you for playing everyone!
 
Josh5890 said:
Well March has come and gone without a single peep from Nintendo on the Switch 2. When I started this little poll/contest, there was a lot of hope and excitement going around. Sadly, it all dried up pretty quickly. Still, we must go on! As much as I wanted to delay the contest after the news broke, I wanted to be a man of my word. As it stands, here are the winners of the poll.

qxn5v28.png



If someone wants to opt out of the drawing for the $50 eshop gift card, please let me know. I will probably do the drawing in a day or two and have a couple of mods as witnesses.

Thank you for playing everyone!
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Still think the poll should‘ve been immediately closed when the 2025 leaks came.

Congratulations nonetheless, patience pays off.
 
I'm super curious how close marketing wise, color scheme, etc. they stick with Switch 2.

I feel like they have giant retail spaces in a lot of locations (mainly Japan) and going a similar route just gives them a huge foothold in retail day 1. Just please name it something simple like Switch 2 lol
 
Somnia said:
I'm super curious how close marketing wise, color scheme, etc. they stick with Switch 2.

I feel like they have giant retail spaces in a lot of locations (mainly Japan) and going a similar route just gives them a huge foothold in retail day 1. Just please name it something simple like Switch 2 lol
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I kinda wonder too what else they can do to differentiate the colours to identify the system as Nintendo, but also as a new console. For being such basic primary colours, red and blue have a lot of subconscious symbolism.

Red is Nintendo, Red and Blue makes Mario (as well as harkens back to Pokemon Red & Blue), or Red for Mario and Blue for BOTW Link, and they pair well enough as two ideal primary colours.

Red seems like an obvious choice for a left joycon, but what could pair well with red? Green, so it's a Mario/Luigi mix, or green to indicate Link (and a subconscious nod to Nintendo and Microsoft's partnership). Yellow might be a little too harsh to pair with red, and doesn't have an obvious connotation with any existing game. Orange, Pink and Purple are a little too close in hue (and with the former two options might not be contrasting enough to have two warm colours).

Maybe they'll stick with Red/Blue in a deeper hue (and offer an all black option, much like the Switch OLED was all white or the V1 and V2 were all grey).
 
Somnia said:
I'm super curious how close marketing wise, color scheme, etc. they stick with Switch 2.

I feel like they have giant retail spaces in a lot of locations (mainly Japan) and going a similar route just gives them a huge foothold in retail day 1. Just please name it something simple like Switch 2 lol
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A good thing for them would be to strike a perfect balance with the marketing and aesthetics, different enough that the average non-gamer person can tell its an entirely new console and not an enhanced version, yet close enough that it's still a "switch"

Changing the color palette could help people distinguish between the two especially when it comes to buying games. If they want to be more "faithful" to the og switch branding they can alternate red and white, with white now being the primary and red secondary (also might work as a reference to the famicom lol)

could also make the buttons on the logo colored if the speculation of the snes buttons ends up holding weight. Like this artistic masterpiece below!

SWITCH750-1.png
 
SoldierDelta said:
Honestly same. You'd expect something to slip through the cracks, but I guess that's just how it goes...

Welp, now to wait until May 9th. Hopefully people won't be unreasonable, unhinged, doomposting or all three.
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I doubt that this will happen, but if we get past the next shareholders meeting without any news on next gen hardware, the vibes are really going to start to feel weird.
 
Josh5890 said:
I doubt that this will happen, but if we get past the next shareholders meeting without any news on next gen hardware, the vibes are really going to start to feel weird.
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anxiety and paranoia , superstition and fear. we will be a cursed people, shunned by the outside world
 
SoldierDelta said:
Honestly same. You'd expect something to slip through the cracks, but I guess that's just how it goes...

Welp, now to wait until May 9th. Hopefully people won't be unreasonable, unhinged, doomposting or all three.
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With the Switch 1, it was the same thing. Literally nothing but the most bare info came out, except then it was even worse because there was only the Wii U and 3DS on the market.

If Nintendo is employing the same tactics, they are being so close to the chest that even the smallest breath will bring their wrath.

Alas.
 
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Posting this here as it's the best generic Switch 2 thread not mostly about technology. Occasionally people make predictions about how the next Switch probably can't hope to keep up with the current one in hardware, and even make some lowball predictions like ~80m lifetime sales. But I don't think everyone understands that Switch isn't a particularly outstanding performer in this class, at least in hardware numbers. It's just that almost all Nintendo portables are very strong and it's an especially long generation.

Game Boy in the early 90s was a fairly unspectacular performer by today's standards. The first solid shipment number I have is for March 31, 1997, with 54.05m after 8 years on the market, and that period now making up less than 10% of Nintendo portable hardware sales. From that point on we have at least yearly data, and with both Pokémon and Game Boy Color things picked up in a big way. So starting with that March 31, 1997 as the first data point and ending with March 31, 2024 using Nintendo's 15.5m estimate for Switch this year, we've got about 27 good years of Nintendo portable hardware data. So how much sells in a generation length? Well, how long's a generation?

1DWcOzW.png

oda6QMX.png

rm8YJPN.png


~80m for 6 years is the worst seen scanario so far (beyond the early 90s). AKA: 3DS. ~160m the best. AKA: DS. Switch is right in the middle.

For a 7 year generation, anything much under 100m is hard to imagine.

At 8 years, ~150m becomes the middle scenario, even slightly on the low side.

It is of course the case that not all sales for a given year go to the same hardware, but for the most part the split with older hardware early on and the split with newer hardware later on might be expected to nearly even out. Example: 3DS spent 6 years as the primary system, and the rolling 6 year total when Switch arrives is 73-75m. Very close to 3DS's eventual end total of 76m.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Example: 3DS spent 6 years as the primary system, and the rolling 6 year total when Switch arrives is 73-75m. Very close to 3DS's eventual end total of 76m.
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wait, let me get this straight: the aligned sales numbers for both 3DS and Switch are very similar during the first 6 years of each one?
 
Guaraná said:
wait, let me get this straight: the aligned sales numbers for both 3DS and Switch are very similar during the first 6 years of each one?
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No. I will try to rephrase what I meant to get across.

3DS was The Latest Nintendo Portable for right at 6 years (a tiny bit more in Japan, a tiny bit less elsewhere). But if we look at the "rolling 6 year" chart, there's not exactly a 6 year period that's just 3DS, because on one side DS is still selling while 3DS is the new system, and on the other side 3DS is still selling while Switch is the new system. But those two periods come close to canceling each other out (DS sold ~9m during 3DS's time, 3DS sold ~10m during Switch's time), so looking at the total sales during the time 3DS was The Latest Nintendo Portable still comes close to telling us what 3DS numbers ended up as. My main point being: don't worry about overlap of generations, looking at X years of total portable sales is a pretty good estimate for what a system with an X year generation during a given time would end up at.
 
So like do we think both BoTW and ToTK will get a deluxe edition on the Switch 2 or just one of them? Cause I been thinking about replaying BoTW and the only reason why I haven't is because a potential upgraded edition on the successor lol
 
WRT Metroid Prime 4 being cross-gen, seeing as it's still undated, I don't see why it couldn't just be released for both Switch and Switch 2 the same day Switch 2 launches. Could be the file size balloons from one console generation to the next with additional graphical features, so by getting it on Switch you can play it on Switch, but popping it into Switch 2 will offer to download a patch to get all the extra bells and whistles to upgrade that would be naturally included on the Switch 2 cartridge (or run the game on Switch 1 graphics settings and get boost power to reduce loading times/solidify 60fps framerate).

(I know Sony charges $10 for their PS5 upgrades if you own a game disc but I don't want Nintendo to think they can get away with it too)

Hocot8 said:
So like do we think both BoTW and ToTK will get a deluxe edition on the Switch 2 or just one of them? Cause I been thinking about replaying BoTW and the only reason why I haven't is because a potential upgraded edition on the successor lol
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Much like above, I could see BOTW getting a 'Champion Edition' on Switch 2 with all the DLC bundled, but if the devs are holding true to no DLC for TOTK, then it might as well be a simple patch to download for the base game that can take advantage of DLSS and tensor cores; no need for a rerelease when they can just reprint.
 
Brofield said:
WRT Metroid Prime 4 being cross-gen, seeing as it's still undated, I don't see why it couldn't just be released for both Switch and Switch 2 the same day Switch 2 launches. Could be the file size balloons from one console generation to the next with additional graphical features, so by getting it on Switch you can play it on Switch, but popping it into Switch 2 will offer to download a patch to get all the extra bells and whistles to upgrade that would be naturally included on the Switch 2 cartridge (or run the game on Switch 1 graphics settings and get boost power to reduce loading times/solidify 60fps framerate).

(I know Sony charges $10 for their PS5 upgrades if you own a game disc but I don't want Nintendo to think they can get away with it too)


Much like above, I could see BOTW getting a 'Champion Edition' on Switch 2 with all the DLC bundled, but if the devs are holding true to no DLC for TOTK, then it might as well be a simple patch to download for the base game that can take advantage of DLSS and tensor cores; no need for a rerelease when they can just reprint.
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That's kinda my thinking on it. I never got to play the dlc and I have been tempted to just buy but again I'm pretty convinced it will get a rerelease on the Switch 2 haha.
 
I haven't got to play TotK yet and haven't gotten around to picking up BotW again either. I got skyward sword for Christmas and I haven't had time to really get into that as well. I've been holding out they either do a Nintendo selects run that includes BotW or they release an enhanced version on switch 2.
 
0
Hocot8 said:
So like do we think both BoTW and ToTK will get a deluxe edition on the Switch 2 or just one of them? Cause I been thinking about replaying BoTW and the only reason why I haven't is because a potential upgraded edition on the successor lol
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I'm in the same boat, holding out a second replay of totk for a version that may never happen.

I think for marketing reasons alone, if only one of them gets patched it's more likely to be totk.

Oh well, if it doesn't happen at least Switch 2 should iron out the framerate issues and max out dynamic res by default. And hopefully improve loading times. Just by playing the game in bc mode.
 
I have a thought, what are the odds that Nintendo just expand their voucher system for Switch 2 and basically just give away old games for new purchase?. The voucher system is already a pretty solid deal, but it feels like a good way to smooth the transition from Switch 1 to 2 would be to drop the price of the vouchers themselves to essentially get half decade games for free after purchasing new titles.

Versus a Nintendo selects that could cannibalize sales of new games. Or just leaving the games at full price and doing nothing.

Surely a game like Arms, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, or Metroid Dread, etc. must've made enough money that they'd be worth more given away to bolster the new titles.

More business minded folks can roast me for any logic leaps.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
I have a thought, what are the odds that Nintendo just expand their voucher system for Switch 2 and basically just give away old games for new purchase?. The voucher system is already a pretty solid deal, but it feels like a good way to smooth the transition from Switch 1 to 2 would be to drop the price of the vouchers themselves to essentially get half decade games for free after purchasing new titles.

Versus a Nintendo selects that could cannibalize sales of new games. Or just leaving the games at full price and doing nothing.

Surely a game like Arms, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, or Metroid Dread, etc. must've made enough money that they'd be worth more given away to bolster the new titles.

More business minded folks can roast me for any logic leaps.
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Interesting idea, and it's not entirely a new concept. When MK8 released on Wii U and Nintendo basically held up the "We're f*cked" signs, you could get a free copy of Pikmin 3, New Super Mario Bros U, Wind Waker HD or Wii U Party by registering your copy by July 31st.

The main problem with the idea is that it's a bit... generous. It's pretty much sacrificing future sales for a Switch 1 title in exchange for incentivizing the purchase of new games. Giving away certain titles at the end of their life isn't a horrible idea and promotes getting into new series, but it'd probably be a safer idea on Nintendo's part to have first-party titles like that be on Nintendo Selects.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Interesting idea, and it's not entirely a new concept. When MK8 released on Wii U and Nintendo basically held up the "We're f*cked" signs, you could get a free copy of Pikmin 3, New Super Mario Bros U, Wind Waker HD or Wii U Party by registering your copy by July 31st.

The main problem with the idea is that it's a bit... generous. It's pretty much sacrificing future sales for a Switch 1 title in exchange for incentivizing the purchase of new games. Giving away certain titles at the end of their life isn't a horrible idea and promotes getting into new series, but it'd probably be a safer idea on Nintendo's part to have first-party titles like that be on Nintendo Selects.
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My one thing about the selects is that those cannibalize new games sales by having a new title competing with an older one without incentivizing a new system purchase. Even if the Switch 2 is backwards compatible. (Which we already know is)

Maybe not reduce the price to free, but low enough that it doubles the worth of the purchase for nothing. And also help more budget minded consumers make the jump.

Maybe also stick to the games that... aren't super saturated in market worth, like no BotW or Oddyssey, but stick to your Metroids, Kirbys and Pikmin.
 
Shadow14 said:
Maybe it's time to give up on Switch 2 and buy a Steam Deck OLED; at least one of them it's available...
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It’s a good buy if you don’t mind PC silliness. Seriously. Free yourself.

I love my Switch and I still think it’s superior to the Steam Deck, despite the huge power gap, but if you are a handheld player, just “no more port begging” is absolutely worth it.

You could spend a couple years playing every major PS5/Xbox Series in your hand and when you were done pick up a Switch 2 after the library is set and you’d have a great time
 
oldpuck said:
It’s a good buy if you don’t mind PC silliness. Seriously. Free yourself.

I love my Switch and I still think it’s superior to the Steam Deck, despite the huge power gap, but if you are a handheld player, just “no more port begging” is absolutely worth it.

You could spend a couple years playing every major PS5/Xbox Series in your hand and when you were done pick up a Switch 2 after the library is set and you’d have a great time
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i found it way more liberating to stop caring about what skips the switch at this point. saves money and time. though it might be harder for the people that have to be in the "zeitgeist" or whatever.
 
Hocot8 said:
So like do we think both BoTW and ToTK will get a deluxe edition on the Switch 2 or just one of them? Cause I been thinking about replaying BoTW and the only reason why I haven't is because a potential upgraded edition on the successor lol
Click to expand...
I’m not expecting either to get a deluxe version. Maybe some next gen patches.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
I have a thought, what are the odds that Nintendo just expand their voucher system for Switch 2 and basically just give away old games for new purchase?. The voucher system is already a pretty solid deal, but it feels like a good way to smooth the transition from Switch 1 to 2 would be to drop the price of the vouchers themselves to essentially get half decade games for free after purchasing new titles.
Click to expand...
I really like this idea.
 
Mekanos said:
I’m not expecting either to get a deluxe version. Maybe some next gen patches.
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What would BOTW even benefit from with a patch at this point beyond maybe an uncapped framerate and including the DLC? And the only good argument for a next gen TOTK release is the fact that they haven't even started making prepatched carts which is a bit odd when they've done that for much less in demand games.
 
Goht said:
Hey cool graphs. I'm curious if there's a dataset available as a CSV or something easy. Props if you worked through the financial reports.
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I ended up scraping VGChartz's monthly sales data. I can post a link if anybody's interested.

Just for fun here are lifetime sales for DS/Wii/3DS/WiiU/Switch.

wWNMUtG.png
 
Goht said:
I ended up scraping VGChartz's monthly sales data. I can post a link if anybody's interested.

Just for fun here are lifetime sales for DS/Wii/3DS/WiiU/Switch.

wWNMUtG.png
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VGChartz are known to be inaccurate when it comes to sales data. I wouldn't recommend using them as a source for anything ever.
 
Wouldn’t it make sense that Nintendo releases Nintendo select exclusively on the Nintendo Eshop for those who never bought the game or missed on playing them.

Like most switch games are selling good, but once the switch 2 makes it to market, most people will stop paying them at full price and instead buy the latest next gen Nintendo exclusives.

But having a Nintendo select for switch game at launch of the switch 2 would be appealing for a lot of parents and fans in a marketing stand point, like you’ll move system and the consumers will easily let go of the switch if Nintendo promises

  • Upscaled backward compatibility like the Xbox series X
  • The cheapest way to buy Switch exclusives for either 20-25 buck per game.
  • And consistent release schedule of Next gen exclusives
Also I’ve been thinking recently if Nintendo will try and market the Switch 2 like an media box (Just let it play a small role in marketing and not pull an Xbox one, since I’m in a believe the Xbox just needed to wait a couple of years and most people wouldn’t bat an eye)

Like I’ve been thinking at how weird that Netflix isn’t on the switch, or if any streaming service, since the switch is a match made in heaven.

Or any audio books, manga app (like it would make bank in Japan with their 34 million users), reading app. I don’t know how much these things are influences ram or the os

Like imagine being a parent and realising you buy a media box you can take away with your travel or car trips and download a couple of movies for you kids to watch on a plane ride or a car trip and you get the added bonus of having them the option to play their favourite Mario game, which wouldn’t rot their brain's.

Since the switch from the very beginning was market as a gaming system, which I think was the right move.

what’s everyone’s thoughts since I haven’t heard anyone mentioning the switch 2 being more media friendly to watch movies, shows and reading. (Just a small focus, like an extra bonus you’ll see in a commercial for 10 seconds, I personally don’t want it to be the main selling point of the switch 2)
 
Steve said:
Also I’ve been thinking recently if Nintendo will try and market the Switch 2 like an media box (Just let it play a small role in marketing and not pull an Xbox one, since I’m in a believe the Xbox just needed to wait a couple of years and most people wouldn’t bat an eye)

Like I’ve been thinking at how weird that Netflix isn’t on the switch, or if any streaming service, since the switch is a match made in heaven.

Or any audio books, manga app (like it would make bank in Japan with their 34 million users), reading app. I don’t know how much these things are influences ram or the os

Like imagine being a parent and realising you buy a media box you can take away with your travel or car trips and download a couple of movies for you kids to watch on a plane ride or a car trip and you get the added bonus of having them the option to play their favourite Mario game, which wouldn’t rot their brain's.

Since the switch from the very beginning was market as a gaming system, which I think was the right move.

what’s everyone’s thoughts since I haven’t heard anyone mentioning the switch 2 being more media friendly to watch movies, shows and reading. (Just a small focus, like an extra bonus you’ll see in a commercial for 10 seconds, I personally don’t want it to be the main selling point of the switch 2)
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I think this is a highly unlikely direction for them to take any system in the near future. Per Furukawa:

Every day, we conduct our business with a great sense of urgency. Generational transitions of platforms for the dedicated video game business are not an easy task. Since we have often experienced hardship in the past following a good-selling platform, we never automatically assume that our current position is solidified. Furthermore, as you mentioned, our business is constantly subject to fierce competition. When we take a broader perspective and look at entertainment as a whole, our competitors are not just other video games but also various other forms of leisure, making it a very tough industry. All this makes it even more important to continue offering unique proposals that make our brand an appealing choice for consumers. For us to keep offering unique entertainment that can be enjoyed by consumers all over the world, we believe the best strategy at this time is to continue pursuing our integrated hardware-software dedicated video game platform business. While we are working on all kinds of research and development projects and initiatives based on this belief, Nintendo products are different from basic necessities in that consumers will quickly lose interest if they are not fun. For this reason, we recognize the importance of continuing to implement initiatives that encourage people to feel familiar with Nintendo in areas other than dedicated video game platforms, increasing the number of consumers who are fans of Nintendo IP over the long- term, and maintaining our relationship with these consumers.
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nintendoeverything.com

Nintendo on conducting business with urgency, says hardware transitions "are not an easy task"

During a Nintendo financial briefing this week, one investor brought up how “external factors such as the introduction of new hardware by competitors and the rise of mobile gaming have impacted” its business. With new types of entertainment coming through, president Shuntaro Furukawa was asked...
nintendoeverything.com nintendoeverything.com

They want users to buy and play their games, not use their hardware for competing activities.
 
Goht said:
Ah fair enough. I don't follow sales too much beyond the headlines. Thanks for the heads up.
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It's unfortunate because they're often the first site that pops up when people search "(insert game/console here) sales numbers". It's also tragic that they've been around for over 15 years and have made little effort to improve.
 
It's crazy to look back and see that the Switch was soft announced in April 2016, only known as NX and no further details given outside a 2017 release. I wonder how it's going to go this time around?
 
zumaddy said:
It's crazy to look back and see that the Switch was soft announced in April 2016, only known as NX and no further details given outside a 2017 release. I wonder how it's going to go this time around?
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Maybe we’ll hear something later this month?

Haven’t been up to date with the rumour mill, but is June still on the table?
 
Sadist said:
Maybe we’ll hear something later this month?

Haven’t been up to date with the rumour mill, but is June still on the table?
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AFAIK people are hoping for some scraps in May with the investor's meeting? If we were getting anything it would just be like "the successor is coming in the future" and PR talk from that date. I think a proper reveal is sadly a ways off.
 
BassForever said:
It's unfortunate because they're often the first site that pops up when people search "(insert game/console here) sales numbers". It's also tragic that they've been around for over 15 years and have made little effort to improve.
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I've heard this before, I'm curious in what way is VGChartz not accurate when it comes to Nintendo console sales numbers?

My understanding is that (if I'm remembering correctly) they sometimes "estimate" the numbers. If that is the case (and why it is said they can be inaccurate), didn't VGChartz's estimated number ends up being close to correct, with small adjustment if any is needed?
 
darthdiablo said:
I've heard this before, I'm curious in what way is VGChartz not accurate when it comes to Nintendo console sales numbers?

My understanding is that (if I'm remembering correctly) they sometimes "estimate" the numbers. If that is the case (and why it is said they can be inaccurate), didn't VGChartz's estimated number ends up being close to correct, with small adjustment if any is needed?
Click to expand...
they literally make up numbers based on "trends". their accuracy has come in hindsight when official numbers come out and they change their data
 
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