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4M should be the floor of Strikers, before Aces released Strikers Charged was the best selling entry of the Mario Sports series and it's easy to think Strikers should outsell Aces (3.66M) due to how popular is football worldwide and releasing close to World Cup. Also it seems at least to me it has much higher budget than the Camelot sports games but that could just be NLG being a bigger studio more cappeable. (not trying to discredit Camelot job at all btw it's impressive how their games look especially when you consider Camelot size)
World Cup begins in November this year so it won't be as close as usual, but this has the potential to become the best-selling Mario sports game ever nonetheless