APileofBananas
Octorok
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Hopefully they get the chance to return to Punch-Out at some point.
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Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!
StarTopic Nintendo First Party Software Development |ST| Nintendo Party Superstars
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WonderLuigi
eegee
They can do a new IP after they make a 15M seller haha
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What I like most about this post is the invention of the word "expeculation". Great portmanteau of expectation and speculation.
Wockio
NSMB2 Millionaire
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WonderLuigi
eegee
I meant that NLG is probably making LM4 to replicate 3's success, and then they can make something else.
junglehead
The Galactic Federation's Strongest Soldier
truth nuke: LM4 is NLG's next game in 2026 and they probably have like, 2-3 other projects cooking in the background
Marce-chan
Magical Girls <3
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure Nintendo knows the desire for Super Mario RPG and that's why they made it one of the spotlight announcements of the June Direct, heavily marketed it and released on the premium holiday spot.I'm pretty confident Super Mario RPG wasn't just some one-time attempt to appease its fans; they would've worked through whatever hangup Square Enix have with NSO to get even just that single game on there if that were exclusively the goal. Go on the official Super Mario website and you'll find Super Mario RPG labelled as its own series of Mario games, despite only containing the same game twice:
A one-off game should be easy enough to shove into the Others category, that's where the Mario + Rabbids games are hanging out; but to me it really seems like they want to have all three active as distinct pillars of Mario RPGs. That's the only regard in which I see this string of Mario RPG releases, seperated by six months and announced in sequential general Nintendo Directs, as tests: if all three are profitable then all three continue, no reason to pick just one if people are buying them regardless of these release conditions. If anything, I'm somewhat expecting Super Mario RPG to remain the most successful of the three domestically; the original Super Famicom release was already the long-standing best seller of Mario RPGs in Japan, and the remake did exceptionally well in turn. Should be motivation enough to give it a direct sequel.
I don't think Paper Mario is just going to slide back into Origami King's formula next game either, not after multiple surveys begging for feedback on the RPG mechanics and unique characters. I don't think they'll drop everything to just replicate TTYD in every possible area either; there's room to naturally itterate and find a nice middleground of ideas.
It was definitely not just some easy remake they made in no time, it was a faithful recreation of an SNES classic, with some great work on the graphics and new amazing CG-i that's on the level of Square or Smash trailers.
It went to sell 3.5m pretty fast and has huge potential to become its own series considering its unique cast.
I think Super Mario RPG 2 is inevitable and I think it'll be an early/mid Switch 2 title. Maybe even announced in 2025 for 2026.
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Chiffon
Rattata
I can't really answer that question, but speaking of Shinya Saito I noticed he suddenly became the producer of every externally developed game since F-Zero 99. From 2020 until mid-2023 he was usually credited for project management.
That said, he is usually the second producer from Nintendo's side (presumably indicating he's less involved than the others), except for Another Code: Recollection and Mario vs. Donkey Kong.
Takao Nakano, Shinya Saito (F-ZERO 99)
Akira Kinashi, Shinya Saito (Detective Pikachu Returns)
Kensuke Tanabe, Shinya Saito (WarioWare: Move It!)
Toyokazu Nonaka, Shinya Saito (Super Mario RPG)
Akira Kinashi, Shinya Saito, Toyokazu Nonaka (Pokémon SV The Hidden Treasure of Area Zero)
Shinya Saito, Toyokazu Nonaka (Another Code: Recollection)
Shinya Saito, Takao Nakano (Mario vs. Donkey Kong)
Nobuo Matsumiya, Shinya Saito (Princess Peach: Showtime!)
Akira Kinashi, Shinya Saito (Endless Ocean Luminous)
Risa Tabata, Shinya Saito (Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door)
Kensuke Tanabe, Shinya Saito (Luigi's Mansion 2 HD)
junglehead
The Galactic Federation's Strongest Soldier
Yeah I don't know what his deal is but him and Toyokazu Nonaka have just worked on virtually everything recently. Everything that's a low-weight remake or third party game has his name on it. I wanna say he's producing Mario remakes for Nintendo but his bandwidth also extends beyond that, soooo... I don't know what his deal is.
BlackthornOrion
#theprocessworks
personally, I kinda expect their next game, whatever it is, to come out next year
- Federation Force was 3 years after Luigi's Mansion 2
- Luigi's Mansion 3 was 3 years after Federation Force
- Battle League was 3 years after Luigi's Mansion 3
OctoSplattack
Tingle
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Next Level Games, Monolith Soft, Camelot, HAL, IntSys, EPD4, EPD9, and EPD Tokyo are all the teams off the top of my head that feel like they should have something for next year that haven't announced anything already, which feels like the makings of a really stacked launch year, even if some of those end up being cross-gen releases.
Steve
Tingle
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I'm extremely optimistic with NLG and Monolith since both studios are always utilising the hardware.
Luigi Mansion 4 with RT sounds awesome and Monolith next project has a lot of potential, i'm expecting a new fantasy IP.
EDP9 i think will release Mario Kart X in April, since i'm now leaning that Pókemon ZA will be the big holiday game. Since it's a franchise that fits the best in the holiday season.
I'm expecting either FE remake or Monolith being the big summer title and Next Level game having a october launch window for Luigi Mansion 4.
I'm genuinely expecting that Prime 4 will release alongside 3D Mario and be the big launch titles.
Meanwhile HD ports will be sprinkle throught the year.
OctoSplattack
Tingle
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True, it would be better to say that those are teams/studios that are feel like they're probably in the back half of whatever project they may be working on moreso than ones that are definitely going to release something next year. I'd still hazard a guess that at least half of the studios I listed will release something next calendar year, though.
Nemesis24
Octorok
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yeah i talked about this because i observed that he's involved with a lot of games, regardless if its under epd2 or epd6, which makes me wonder if they merged everything
Nemesis24
Octorok
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Yeah thats something Im expecting too, be it for launch or during 2025. Those are the ones with most space to release a new game
Year 1 of Switch 2 is going to be frontloaded by EPD again. Probably 2-3 launch titles from EPD core proper, and likely 5 total for that first calendar year. After they will teeter off to the usual 2-4 games a year, before taking off the final year and a half to prep for the next hardware launch.
Hero of Legend
Koopa
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BTW the credits above have NLG under Special Thanks:I posted them (sans localization staff) on Nintendo Wiki and Kyoto Report but forgot to post it here
Luigi's Mansion 2 HD Credits - Kyoto Report
kyoto-report.wikidot.com
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Would be interesting if they merged all external support responsibility under a single group, since that would likely influence EPD 7 and as well as 2 and 6 (and more than any other group besides maybe 1, I want to know what's up with them). I'm not confident in that being the case for now though; simpler assumption is that Shinya Saito is just not tethered to Group 2 anymore (but that's still where the majority of his work will fall under since that's where the majority of externally developed games are produced).
I imagine we'll finally be getting another Ask the Developers segment for Echoes of Wisdom, so we'll at least get to see if EPD 3 have remained unchanged in numbering since last year.
APileofBananas
Octorok
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Oh that's right, we might finally find out what happed with EPD 1 next year. I've been assuming nothing will come out of them until the next console arrives.
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Luigi's Mansion 4 is the most logical if boring next project for NLG though I personally hope they do more with the format. I enjoyed LM3 but the formula was already wearing a bit thin for me and I'm not sure I can stomach another game with this type of gameplay.
I expect them to move beyond the static camera for the next one. just throwing ray tracing in a static, small environment isn't going to tickle people's fancy as much as going pseudo-open with a controllable camera. just look at how Pokemon blew up when they made the shift
Aufhebung RPG
History is tragedy becoming comedy
The action system doesn't make up a large portion of Zelda's mechanics; BOTW exponentially increases the way props and items interact with each other and the results of those interactions by introducing a physics engine as well as a chemistry engine, and creates a sense of open-world exploration by shaping the maps into triangles of varying sizes to obscure the player's field of vision and by the ubiquitous presence of appealing landmarks. Both of these are textbook levels of game design to this day, and are studied by various game designers to this day. And TP heavily reuses props and gameplay from OOT, yet it appeared as a brand new title being advertised, not Ocarina of Time 2.
oldpuck
Koopa
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Absolutely. I wasn't subtweeting you, I was more referring to folks betting on LM4 specifically. Even if NLG is in a place where they absolutely are ready to deliver a title next year, that piece of the the launch year puzzle might not fit with whatever else Nintendo's got.
I'm not actually sure about that.
If we assume that Switch 1 support will taper off after a year or two, and if we assume that EPD has moved on fully to Switch 2 content, then ironically that may mean that non-EPD studios pushing out the last run of cross-gen games takes priority for the first few years. Brazil has said he knows of two, IIRC?
Depending on Nintendo's cross-gen strategy, I could totally Nintendo's current cadence being an excellent launch year. EPD produces the launch title and the holiday title as massive, system selling exclusives (3D Mario, and Mario Kart, just to spitball), Retro and IntSys produce "enhanced on Switch 2" cross-gen titles (Prime 4, Fire Emblem), and the 6-8 partner developed Switch 1 games fill out elsewhere.
Drop the last of the Switch 1 titles, and that gives breathing room for EPD to have titles in the tank over the next few years and partners slow down while they move into the UHD/Switch 2 era.
junglehead
The Galactic Federation's Strongest Soldier
I have some crazy-ass vibes that make me think... Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, a casual game of some sort (maybe two?)... that's plenty. Prime 4 and Legends will plug in for the megamillion sellers.
Nintendo's probably perfectly happy with being more conservative and putting other megasellers like a hypothetical LM4 or a new pokemon gen in 2026.
Nemesis24
Octorok
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Yeah I'm just wondering in the end, but I think it would be better for them to merger epd 6 and 2 into just one thing as they all work under the same production role for external companies. I dont see much reason for them to be separate, unlike development groups.
I was actually semi-conservative in positing 5 first-year games from EPD on Switch 2, they actually did 6 for Switch 1. But not only does it make sense again repeating financially what worked - as in getting those big EPD evergreen games out as soon as possible since they are going to forever sell; but logistically their core internal teams always have that huge head start working on alpha and official dev kits over anyone.
Meaning the first year of a console is always their most productive - here is the evidence.
Switch (6 months, March-December 2017)
- Switch: 6 Games from EPD, 1 from NST
Wii U / 3DS (7 months, December-August 2013)
- Wii U: 5 games from EPD, 1 from NST
- 3DS: 2 games from EPD
Wii / NDS (6 months, December-June 2007)
- Wii: 6 games from EPD
- NDS: 2 games from EPD
Of course you should see something like Prime 4 as a cross-release, and other non-EPD titles that first year, but it doesn't change the fact that the first year is always the most frontloaded when it comes to EPD releases.
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It's probable that two internal next-gen titles - the two at EPD 8 - have been in the works for four to five years now, given the hiring calls. Even if one of them (the 2D one?) also launches on Switch, there could be two launch year titles from EPD Tokyo, in addition to probable games from EPD 4 (new IP?) and EPD 9 (Kart). You're up to four internal games for the launch year without needing to reach particularly hard to find them.
I do wonder if Nintendo have prioritised Animal Crossing this time around. New Horizons launched around 21 months after Octo Expansion, so if we assumed a similar gap between Side Order and the next new Animal Crossing from EPD 5 (this might not even be a particularly accurate gauge, but let's have fun) we'd be looking at Animal Crossing arriving in November/December 2025, ideally placed for a major holiday season system seller for the successor.
Another guess at an early internal title would be a new IP from EPD that's not an EPD 4 experimental title, and instead is more like ARMS. But I'm not sure which group that would come from in the near term.
I do wonder if Nintendo have prioritised Animal Crossing this time around. New Horizons launched around 21 months after Octo Expansion, so if we assumed a similar gap between Side Order and the next new Animal Crossing from EPD 5 (this might not even be a particularly accurate gauge, but let's have fun) we'd be looking at Animal Crossing arriving in November/December 2025, ideally placed for a major holiday season system seller for the successor.
Another guess at an early internal title would be a new IP from EPD that's not an EPD 4 experimental title, and instead is more like ARMS. But I'm not sure which group that would come from in the near term.
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oldpuck
Koopa
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Yeah, totally agree that it makes sense and matches the pattern. I just think that if they're going to have an extensive cross-gen period, which they've never done before and we have strong evidence they will do, that might shift the balance a bit.
SirArthur
Starman
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https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/resolution_notice2406e.pdf
Looks like Miyoko Demay, Eiko Osawa and Keiko Akashi have all been approved to join Nintendo’s Board of Directors. They also elected more members for their Audit and Supervisory Committee.
Looks like Miyoko Demay, Eiko Osawa and Keiko Akashi have all been approved to join Nintendo’s Board of Directors. They also elected more members for their Audit and Supervisory Committee.
junglehead
The Galactic Federation's Strongest Soldier
I do think these prospects become slightly shakier when some of their departments have released significant Switch 1 content during these later years. That being said though, 2024 is pretty dry as far as major EPD developments go, with arguably the largest teams being NDCube, Grezzo, IntSys, NST and some third party collaborators (ILCA probably, Tantalus, ArcSys and Good-Feel), and those companies have all shown competence in developing multiple projects at once, so there's a chance the first year won't be as dry as the late release of games such as Wonder, Splatoon 3, Pikmin 4, and TOTK might suggest.
Nemesis24
Octorok
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are you counting ead and spd together? since two of those cases are prior 2015
I mean that's what EPD is ... EAD+SPD = EPD. Or in layman's term, Nintendo's internal game R&D.
Wockio
NSMB2 Millionaire
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3D Mario
Mario Kart
Animal Crossing
Switch Sports sequel (Switch release but playable on Switch 2)
A surprise
That's my expectation for EPD next year
Speculating based on timeline and projected development time, you could have:
- 3D Mario game
- Tomodachi game
- Nintendo Fitness RPG game (RFA sequel)
- Nintendo Labo experimental successor project
- EPD DX port (Nintendo often does 1-2 internally as a testing bed for new hardware)
OctoSplattack
Tingle
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EDIT: Just realized that the above question is way better for the Switch 2 speculation thread, so... replace this with "do we think any of Nintendo's first-party studios still has a Switch 1 game or two left in its pocket?"
jt155555
Cappy
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Chill
Don't get on the edge of your seat for a same release cadence from these developers into Switch 2's launch years, you'll tumble over lol. The jump to far more powerful hardware and the need for innovative titles at headline of Switch 2 will see a lot of these devs add a year or three to their cycle surely
EPD Tokyo and EPD 9 clearly been cooking some crazy though, nearly a decade from Nintendo's finest by launch of the Switch 2
jt155555
Cappy
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Aint nothing was ever dry about a 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, possible EPD 7 project, and Mario Kart launch year
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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I know that it's just for fun but I always feel the need to refer back to a very informative post when this topic comes up:
Even ignoring the small EPD staff crossover, the two games also had different support teams. Splatoon 3 has game design assistance from Mario Club (primarily does debugging/QA) and significant art support from Bandai Namco Singapore/Malaysia. New Horizons was entirely(?) programmed by SRD and had art support from Monolith and 1-UP Studio.
Mario Club, Monolith, and SRD worked on both titles, but had a noticeably larger role in only one title.
Splatoon 3 - 2022 (NSW) - Kyoto Report
Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 2020 (NSW) - Kyoto Report
boodream
Paratroopa
That's why I was secretly hoping they'd work on a remaster of F-Zero GX between Strikers and LM4, so they could then develop a new episode of F-Zero if it worked out.
Given the remarkable visual quality of LM3 on Switch 1, I'm personally quite excited to see what NLG can do with more powerful hardware. There's a lot of room for improvement. The controls are sometimes too confusing and messy, there's the possibility of introducing new gameplay mechanics, there's the possibility of switching to 60 FPS, and so on.
EPD 8: 3D Mario and hopefully DK or secret team 2 project
EPD 4: Probably 2 original titles
New EPD: I'm speculating that RFA/Nintendo Fitness might move on to its own production group with Matsunaga being the head of it.
EPD 7: Tomodachi
EPD 3: BOTW 4k-DX? / TOTK 4K-DX?
EPD9: Earliest I could see the game is Holiday 2025. But I'm not sure given how massive of a game I'm expecting it to be.
Our "expert team" at KR and FB have broken down how the AC and SP team have completely different planning cores, technology teams, and sound staff. The only thing they really share are a couple of production artists which is standard across EPD since only the lead artists are bound to one project while the production artists move from project to project. Basically you can have (and we have seen) AC and SP in development at the same time and even released in the same year.
Both Splatoon and AC are really important to get out soon for new hardware. Do they do Splatoon 3 DX or Splatoon 4? AC I feel is deep in development but may be theoretically positioned as their big March 2026 game if Tomodachi materializes at Switch 2 launch window.
Without a doubt; if you remember Koizumi and Kawamoto were the respective "producer" and "director" of the Swtich 1 and had development teams at the forefront of the launch. Not only should the roles remain given the success, the timeline supports both factions to be leading projects for launch window.
Aufhebung RPG
History is tragedy becoming comedy
They have to release several heavy first party titles in the first year to avoid a repeat of the bad situation the wiiu encountered in the first year, at the moment 3d mario and mario kart 9 are basically becoming the most likely games for the first year, and mp4 is likely to come to the switch2 in parallel with the cross gen games. the only thing that's unclear right now is whether epd5 will have a new AC released in the first year.
BlackthornOrion
#theprocessworks
Personally, I kinda think Animal Crossing makes more sense to position as a big year 2 or maybe even year 3 game than having it during the launch year
That first year needs casual family/multiplayer games too, sure. But the main Animal Crossing audience isn't, I don't think, the kind that really shows up for a console at launch. So use that first year or so to transition the more dedicated "hardcore" players and work out any supply issues; then once you've pretty much tapped out that base and have no issues keeping systems on shelves, put out Animal Crossing to convince the more casual stragglers to upgrade to the new thing
That first year needs casual family/multiplayer games too, sure. But the main Animal Crossing audience isn't, I don't think, the kind that really shows up for a console at launch. So use that first year or so to transition the more dedicated "hardcore" players and work out any supply issues; then once you've pretty much tapped out that base and have no issues keeping systems on shelves, put out Animal Crossing to convince the more casual stragglers to upgrade to the new thing
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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It makes me sad to admit it but with the potential deluge of software in the pipeline and the response from some hardcore fans to New Horizons I see no reason not to afford the next Animal Crossing a protracted development cycle. Instead of a less content-rich Animal Crossing in the first eighteen months of a system that is too large and expensive for many children and casual players to justify we will have an unusually polished entry later, perhaps following or aligned with the release of a Lite model.
Personally I am going with June of 2028.
(I know such baseless speculation is out of place in this thread and I apologize for contributing it; I just can't help but participate in any future Animal Crossing discussion.)
edit: slightly more on-topic: a later Animal Crossing could give a great space for marketing a Tomodachi game exclusive to the successor, which should be coming at some point based on the lack of movement from EPD7 staff if I recall correctly
Personally I am going with June of 2028.
(I know such baseless speculation is out of place in this thread and I apologize for contributing it; I just can't help but participate in any future Animal Crossing discussion.)
edit: slightly more on-topic: a later Animal Crossing could give a great space for marketing a Tomodachi game exclusive to the successor, which should be coming at some point based on the lack of movement from EPD7 staff if I recall correctly
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
Year 2/3 for AC is probably for the best. I think it should come out first & then Splatoon as I think Splatoon needs some space from the third entry; they really need to nail down some things for the franchise to grow + move it to a once a gen thing.
junglehead
The Galactic Federation's Strongest Soldier
Sharing some thoughts:
-I feel dead certain that EPD Tokyo has more than a few projects under their belt right now. Stuff in R&D, later development stages, etc. I have a feeling we'll be seeing them more frequently this console gen. Their abject silence after Odyssey's release is unusual for a studio that had a steady release cadence before Odyssey and also released Galaxy 2, 3D Land, 3D World and Captain Toad in a 4-year timespan. Especially suspicious since Bowser's Fury was a joint development with NST.
-I too, think Tomodachi is coming, but I don't know if it'd be an enhanced port or new game. Sakamoto seems like a guy who's had his hands full of Metroid lately, and didn't even bother returning for Warioware when IntSys put it back into gear. He might not be a part of that, leaving it without a big Producer, unless Kawamoto would like to step up (I think he might do a good job, he did Miitopia after all.)
-I don't think you'll see EPD3 for a while. Especially after Echoes of Wisdom this year. Grezzo might have another BIG big project under their belt atm but expect remasters and remakes for a few years.
-Great insight on the EPD5 teams. I think production artists are still massively important: they supervise outsourced art production, create and lead early art tests and generally manage the creative flow of an ever-changing, complex art team with heavy expectations on their backs. That being said though, their ability to do design R&D in parallel I think bodes well for both IP and while the rising complexities of game development are certainly a factor for them, I feel confident they could make a landing with AC sooner rather than later.
-Shot in the dark btw, but what if Kawamoto did a franchise revival of some sort instead of a new IP? IDK, throwing out wild cards.
OH, also, BIG agree on a new EPD dept, I have a feeling they're gonna try opening up more of em this gen. More studios in general.
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Tye
All-around Nintendo enjoyer
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I do think it’s very likely that we’ll see Tomodachi Life (or if not exactly that, a spiritual successor to it, at least) sooner rather than later on the Switch successor. I feel like the reason why they’ve held off from making a new Mii game on Switch may be in part that they’ve realized current Miis just don’t mesh very well with most modern game visuals (design preferences aside, just look at Miis vs. Sportsmates in Nintendo Switch Sports and it’s abundantly clear that Miis just don’t look anywhere near as good on a technical level, for example), and perhaps they’re saving it for Miis 4.0 on the next system which will hopefully come with a much needed visual overhaul (that keeps the original design intact, of course).
boodream
Paratroopa
If ever there isn't really the famous Bandai Namco remaster or if it's Kid Icarus, I have a feeling Kawamoto would be an excellent choice to relaunch Starfox.
