OK I am officially team July.
- No one has said a peep about a June Direct. In fact, some of the people we normally would look to for info have said they have not heard anything about one. Speculation from other voices in the industry is that they are not doing one in June.
- Nintendo usually likes 2 months of marketing between announcement and release for a major title, and often one month for a smaller title. By big game I mean a full $60 physical release title and by smaller title I mean an eshop game.
- Nintendo generally has not had a big game in August, leaving that time for smaller titles and third parties, but usually has something big for September.
- Nintendo is confirmed to attend Gamescom in August. Last time they went was 2019 where they showed off soon to be released but previously announced titles like Luigi's Mansion 3.
- By August of this year they will have no dated, announced games.
Therefore, a July direct would be early enough to announce a big September game, as well as the rest of their holiday lineup. They will be able to market those games at Gamescom in August. They wouldn't need to do a September Direct, but could do something else later on, perhaps tied to the new hardware. I could see Nintendo going in early August at the latest, but July seems like the best bet. Any new Twitter drops or a June Partner Showcase could change my prediction.