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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

What team are you joining?

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Marce-chan said:
Hmmmm not really...

Super Mario Odyssey took four years of development (the same amount of time that BotW took). Tears of the Kingdom is coming 6 years and 2 months after BotW. Just going by this we'd have 3D Mario by late 2023 or early 2024. BUT, that doesn't mean either had 6 years of development (BotW only started development January 2013, despite Skyward Sword being released late 2011).

Apparently Tears of the Kingdom had a hiring call early-mid 2018, with big hiring calls/Monolith hiring in 2019 around E3 announcement. 3D Action game by EPD Tokyo had hiring calls late 2019. That doesn't mean it wasn't already in development with a smaller team, probably since 2018 like TotK even.

Then COVID happened, they moved to a new building, apparently they're moving from their own engine to LunchPak, and Switch games taking longer than ever to make. That alone would have made the patterns/easy guess(at the time) of a late 2021 release impossible even if development started right after Odyssey finished.

Add in a possible change in scope(I guess TotK had one too, maybe when announced it was supposed to be way more iterative and the scope highly increased to a thing bigger than the original), maybe they've gone from a Galaxy-esque sequel to a totally new kind of 3D Mario, etc.

Some dev cycles to compare:
  • Metroid Dread: 4 years;
  • Tears of the Kingdom: at least 5 years, can be even more;
  • Splatoon 3: 4 years maybe? But it came out more than 5 years after 2, while 2 came out 2 years and 2 months after 1;
  • Mario + Rabbits: Sparks of Hope: does anybody know? What we know is that it came out 5 years after Kingdom Battle, I'm pretty sure it took longer to make(IIRC from interviews we know M+R:KB started ~2014?)
  • Metroid Prime 4: ...

There's those possibilities for the next 3D Mario:
  • Only started full development early-mid 2019, right before those hiring calls came;
  • Something started development right after Odyssey and got canned in 2019(turned into Bowser's Fury), development of the current game started in 2019;
  • The team took late 2017-early 2019 to prototyping and pre-production, full development started by then;
  • Full development began late 2018(Zelda began early 2018), meaning it's probably coming late 2023-early 2024;
  • A long ass development cycle actually happened, late 2017-late 2023. Unheard of, but development times just keep getting longer, apparently Metroid Prime 4 will have it when all is said and done, if you believe TotK started development early 2017 it's happening with Zelda, so...

With the sole exception of the last possibility, which could've brought something by late 2021-early 2022(like I imagine Zelda would be before COVID and change in scope), it's perfectly normal considering both COVID delaying things and games of that caliber taking longer than ever to make.
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I don't think ToTK ever had change in it's scope. It was the people (including me) that this would be quicker and more "iterative".
 
xghost777 said:
A good thing about the dream dying for this week is we can shift and better focus expectations.

Before a Mini without Zelda seemed fairly plausible, now we are looking more certainly at a proper Direct with Zelda and the usual chunk of new announcements. The potential of another March game is likely narrowing down to either a new casual game like Everybody 1-2 Switch, a remaster, or an eshop game rather than a brand new game more targeted to us. April is still wide open too and we have a much better chance about hearing about June games and beyond.
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Yeah, I’m not feeling today at all.

That doesn’t make me jump ship, though. Far from it - I’m now in belief of a late-month Mini, outlining March and April, and announcing a TotK-dedicated separate Direct. Outlandish? Maybe. But I ain’t in it for the logic.
 
Ojoloco said:
Another puzzle guys, 16 names!

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The first thing I read was "may" that is not a good omen january-/february-/march-/april- bros en sisters!
 
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DenkeyKong said:
Why is this more evidence against a January Direct than a February Direct? Kirby releases late February, so they could have also shown this off in an early February Direct
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There will most likely be multiple info drops for Kirby. This is the January one. The February one will probably coincide with the direct.

Getting one now axes the chance of a direct this week, and next week is out due to Fire Emblem. That just leaves one potential week for a January direct, and it’d be a late one.
 
Irene said:
Yeah, I’m not feeling today at all.

That doesn’t make me jump ship, though. Far from it - I’m now in belief of a late-month Mini, outlining March and April, and announcing a TotK-dedicated separate Direct. Outlandish? Maybe. But I ain’t in it for the logic.
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I’m still proudly Team January too to be clear! Just looking at the week right after Fire Emblem now.

Even more official now with today’s tweet dropping as I wrote this lol.
 
LoneRanger said:
Don’t surprise me if we are getting a Ring Fit sequel or something similar this 2023 or next year.

And more Switch Sports updates please.
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Ring Fit sequel is a real possibility and would fit in 2023 quite a lot I feel.? And IIRC some people here speculated that some EPD4 Ring Fit names were not credited in Switch Sports which could mean Ring Fit 2.
 
It’s not completely impossible we get something next week. The MK8 Wave 2 DLC was announced the day before Xenoblade 3 released.

Not counting on it though.
 
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Gengar said:
Is it about time for NSO Expansion Pass to get something like GBA? I only have the basic NSO so I haven't been following new releases on the expansion. It just feels like N64 has been available for a while now. The next direct could be a good time to expand that service even more!
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Oh god, so far overdue. While personally I didn't subscribe until March last year because of the value of the Mario Kart 8 booster pack, I also think just the general timing of these updates occurring in fall means we likely won't hear news until September at the earliest, unfortunately. I'd love to be wrong about Pokemon month/February being the GB/GBC/GBA announcement with compatibility for RBY and Stadium, but I'm not holding my breath.

9-Volt said:
Megaman, Dragon Quest, Castlevania, resident Evil, Lara Croft, Hogwarts Legacy, Bee Simulator, trek to Yomi, Mickey Mouse, octopath, remnant (fate?). Only found 11.

Now do mine, mine has more realistic predictions, 15 of them.

puzzlepuce2.png
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Finafantasy 😉
 
You know, i'm solid Team February, simply because that's also when my birthday is.

But in reality, i'm in Team "Anytime is fine" and Team "ASAP".
 
Alright, while something could still technically happen tomorrow, I now feel comfortable to present my current stance on Q1.

Unfortunately, I've come to a really disappointing, soul-crushing conclusion: the Nintendo Direct will be in February. No longer interested in surprising and delighting fans, Nintendo will largely succumb to their regular schedule. My final prediction until it is disproven by forthcoming events is a general Nintendo Direct on February 15, 2023.

Why do I think it'll be the 15th? Well, I believe that Nintendo now has a specific incentive to time the Direct this way: Splatoon 3. The current Splatoon season was detailed two weeks before it launched, and I suspect that the February Direct will be timed accordingly to include the game in the presentation. This will be especially valuable if support for the Switch is winding down as rumored; emphasizing the suite of software receiving long-term support will present the platform in a positive light.

I suspect Splatoon will have some sort of event during the weekend from February 10 to 12, which will make the following week the perfect time to share information about the next season.

The start of further coverage of Kirby strengthens my theory. Kirby's promotion will be detached from any presentation and can be comfortably mentioned via a final trailer the week before its launch, or even left out entirely.

As for another March or an April game, I think both are mostly out of the question besides two minor possibilities: Everybody's 1-2 Switch finally crawling out of the warehouse with a Twitter drop announcement in the coming weeks or Advance Wars being quietly announced the same way. I should note that with March already having a game, I'd expect either to wind up in early April.

This concludes my findings about the potential Nintendo Direct. While it's unfortunate that Xbox could have a Direct before Nintendo this year, it is somewhat fitting: the current iteration of the Xbox brand and product line are strong and at their peak, while Nintendo Switch is much older and expected to gracefully bow out after Zelda.

I encourage you all not to fear, however. While many will bemoan the absence of Mario, Smash Bros, and other major series, a lot of the most interesting Nintendo games arrive towards the end of a platform's software support. I earnestly believe that we could see Rhythm Heaven co-developed by indieszero, for example. I expect to see a smattering of interesting experiments this year before Nintendo switches away from Switch, even if EPD 4 is now surely deep in development of software that demonstrates the input capabilities of the new system.
 
Raccoon said:
Alright, while something could still technically happen tomorrow, I now feel comfortable to present my current stance on Q1.

Unfortunately, I've come to a really disappointing, soul-crushing conclusion: the Nintendo Direct will be in February. No longer interested in surprising and delighting fans, Nintendo will largely succumb to their regular schedule. My final prediction until it is disproven by forthcoming events is a general Nintendo Direct on February 15, 2023.
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I don't think it will be on February 15th. Super Nintendo World in Hollywood opens on February 17th. Not that I think it's very relevant but just wanted to point this out. I think that they will not do Direct in that week because of this.
 
LukasManak22 said:
I don't think it will be on February 15th. Super Nintendo World in Hollywood opens on February 17th. Not that I think it's very relevant but just wanted to point this out. I think that they will not do Direct in that week because of this.
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takahashi after furukawa reminds him about the stupid theme park opening in america:

 
Team February works because, if you consider that they start to work on a Direct right after the holidays, a month to put it together between their partners and their own internal team sounds about right. Team January would mean a very tight schedule.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Microsoft now acquired the rights to the term ‘Direct’ so Nintendo can no longer give us Nintendo Directs. We will now need to wait until they can come up with a new, suitable name
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Looking forward to the Nintendo In Your Face.
 
Kartina said:
Also they usually announce an april/may game at every february direct so I don't think an april release is out of the question.
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LukasManak22 said:
Not really expecting a April game but it's good to consider that something like Switch Sports was announced on February 9th and was released on April 29th, that's 79 days only. But with ToTK in May I don't see anything happening in April and there is also a Mario Movie coming that month.

Nintendo is very weird with these reveal to release cycles, Ring Fit was briefly teased on September 6th 2019, fully revealed a week later on 12th and went on sale on October 18th. Which is only 36 days, that's insane.
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I would be very suprised if they have a April game, it would have to be middle of April at earliest. Of course it would be something smaller but still.
 
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Kartina said:
Wow what a shock.
Also they usually announce an april/may game at every february direct so I don't think an april release is out of the question.
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you watch your tone young man

as for an april game yeah maybe idk
 
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you're team february because you think nintendo is a sad and boring company

I'm team february because of squid game

we are not the same
 
Raccoon said:
you're team february because you think nintendo is a sad and boring company

I'm team february because of squid game

we are not the same
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but nintendo IS a sad and boring company, that's why the only fun thing they make are videogames.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Microsoft now acquired the rights to the term ‘Direct’ so Nintendo can no longer give us Nintendo Directs. We will now need to wait until they can come up with a new, suitable name
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It's so funny how Nintendo even used the term "Developer Direct" already during E3 2013. Microsoft really just added _ and called it a day lol







 
So it'll either be the 26th, the 2nd, or the 9th (a repeat of last year.)

I think the 9th is probably the most likely but I could see any of the other two.
 
Kartina said:
but nintendo IS a sad and boring company, that's why the only fun thing they make are videogames.
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you're not wrong but if we allow forum threads to become predicated on nintendo's sad corporate boringness then speculation will itself become sad corporate and boring
 
Mango said:
So it'll either be the 26th, the 2nd, or the 9th (a repeat of last year.)

I think the 9th is probably the most likely but I could see any of the other two.
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It could be Tuesday or Wednesday. So more possible days. The day pattern does not work, it was broken multiple times.
 
Raccoon said:
you're not wrong but if we allow forum threads to become predicated on nintendo's sad corporate boringness then speculation will itself become sad corporate and boring
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which would lead all of us to play more videogames, and we can't have that.
 
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