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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

I think it will have a lifecycle similar to the DS, it will only get a successor once the sales stop peaking and games stop being cross-gen
 
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The Switch will do fine for the next year or so, but it probably has already peaked at this point.
Kano said:
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
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Has the system really been "replaced" when most/all of the first party lineup still comes to it? I don't really view the replacement as something that's going to happen at a single point in time, but as a process that will probably begin soon.
 
We live in a world where Nintendo's best software lineup for a console is going to be in it's sixth year (am I counting that right? lol).

That's probably happened before, but it's very rare for Nintendo.

There's just too many games people actually want for the Switch to fail and slump now.
 
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Onizuka said:
Rather it is the other way around.
PS5 barely manages to surpass Switch sales, only on rare occasions like this past September in the USA, probably due to the expectation of the OLED Switch by a large public. In fact, PS5, after 10 months on the market, already has a sales rate lower than that of Switch in its first 10 months on the market. I think PS5 can sell roughly 17 ~ 20 million between March 2021 and March 2022, while Switch will surely sell around 25 million between March 2021 and March 2022.
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I think that has more to do with supply constraints than demand. Even with supply constraints, Switch was able to outsell PS5 due to having more parts available. Because of the pandemic, we will never get a clear look of how hardware sales should be performing.
 
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9-Volt said:
Expect Switch OLED replacement rates to be crazy. There are 90 million Switch + Switch lite owners out there and I totally expect at least 60 percent of them to get OLED in that time period.
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Uuh that does sound crazy. Like, I'm not going to do it (I think), and I'm so core Nintendo fan I bought a Wii U.

(Though maybe that's because I "know" that the new Switch will arrive early 23, and others won't)
 
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BOTW2 is going to be a behemoth of a game and will drive sales up even further yet. I do not foresee the "end" of the Switch until at the very least 2024. It's an unstoppable train.
 
Kano said:
Yes, it has been replaced, like every single new console released after the previous one. PS4 has been replaced despite it still getting games.
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I feel like this is a somewhat overly black and white way to view the situation. There's a quite a lot of variance in what happens to consoles after their successor releases, and just preemptively discounting that part of the console's cycle doesn't really paint an accurate picture of what some people, including myself are proposing. The Switch 2 releasing and the Switch 1 dying are not unrelated events, but there can be quite a lot of distance between them depending on how Nintendo handles things. In my view, the Switch 2 releasing will probably signal the begin of the winding down period for Switch 1, but Switch 1 probably won't completely finish winding down until Switch 2 reaches a similar point in its cycle as Switch 1 is in now.
 
Also, weren’t PS4 sales for its final year really low? Admittedly for different reasons than what happened with the Wii, but aren’t they both similar in that they fell off a cliff?
 
With ease. 2022 will finally see some big releases on the other systems, about time I might add. Still, you can’t always find what you want on those systems and Nintendo will probably have something which will turn some heads.

Its all good
 
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It will certainly survive that long, and I would not be shocked if it’s more like 3 years before we get a true successor. I think a lot of the concerns with the Switch’s performance are wildly overblown. I don’t think most Switch owners really care that much. I think most of the people who consider the performance unacceptable are enthusiasts posting about it on the internet, and might also primarily play on PC or other consoles. I just don’t think there is a big pressure on Nintendo to improve the specs from most of the audience. Personally I play exclusively handheld on an original model Switch and never had any issues with performance or visuals.

Now if 3rd party developers start making less games because of the specs, that would be one thing, but that seems unlikely while the Switch continues to have a massive install base. I don’t really think Nintendo cares that some vocal people on the internet consider the performance to be very poor, and they don’t feel any pressure from Microsoft or Sony.
 
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stop making fun of my threads!

Chris-Crocker-Leave-Britney.jpeg
 
I think there will be a significant cross gen period. No need to let go of that huge user base yet. The OLED already re ignited demand and will do so because that screen is really a nice upgrade. People buy indies, AA and Nintendo games mostly. A few AAA games also but the main attraction is not AAA. There is no rush to provide more powerful hardware when there are almost no games that really would take advantage of that.
 
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Regardless of when you think Dane releases or what it even is, it is clear that Switch is gonna have a pretty nice 2022 thanks to next year's software line-up.
 
Sander RX said:
Regardless of when you think Dane releases or what it even is, it is clear that Switch is gonna have a pretty nice 2022 thanks to next year's software line-up.
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I think we are also underappreciating how much wildcards there are both next year and 2023. There are a LOT of nintendo or nintendo adjacent studios who havent put out a game now since 2017-2019 range and should be ready to show or release something starting next year. like said regardless of what Dane is or when it releases no way the majority of those titles miss the current switch in any capacity.
 
Pokemaniac said:
I feel like this is a somewhat overly black and white way to view the situation. There's a quite a lot of variance in what happens to consoles after their successor releases, and just preemptively discounting that part of the console's cycle doesn't really paint an accurate picture of what some people, including myself are proposing. The Switch 2 releasing and the Switch 1 dying are not unrelated events, but there can be quite a lot of distance between them depending on how Nintendo handles things. In my view, the Switch 2 releasing will probably signal the begin of the winding down period for Switch 1, but Switch 1 probably won't completely finish winding down until Switch 2 reaches a similar point in its cycle as Switch 1 is in now.
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This feels like trying very hard to find excuses to justify a new console releasing this soon when in reality, there's just no need for.
 
Switch can definitely survive until then. Of course it’s sales aren’t going to be as good as the peak COVID months. But strong software and maybe even a price drop (if Nintendo needs it) will keep it going until the new Switch comes out.

The transition from current switch to new Switch will be a gradual one, regardless of what the Dane is. The theory of Nintendo breaking the rigid structure of generations and going with a phone-ish strategy seems to make sense.
 
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Pandora said:
I think we are also underappreciating how much wildcards there are both next year and 2023. There are a LOT of nintendo or nintendo adjacent studios who havent put out a game now since 2017-2019 range and should be ready to show or release something starting next year. like said regardless of what Dane is or when it releases no way the majority of those titles miss the current switch in any capacity.
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The Mario Kart and Super Mario Odyssey teams have basically been sleeping almost all this gen.

I feel people forget that. Though ... considering ARMS, Mario Kart Mobile (which I think unfortunately was actually made by the MK team?), and MK Live: Home Circuit, I sincerely doubt we'll get another game from that team, unfortunately. But the Odyssey team, I really hope delivers. And no, Bowser's Fury does not count as a 2nd game :D
 
“What if switch wasn’t like past home consoles”, I say as I literally take it out of my house to play it in a park.
 
lemonfresh said:
N64 fell off at the end of its life
Gamecube fell off at the end of its life
Wii fell off at the end of its life
Wii u fell off at the end of its life

You get my point
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You can't simply look to the past, while completely ignoring the present. None of those platforms entered their sixth year with the kind of lineup the Switch has coming. They also didn't sell 25 million units in their fifth year, which Switch is projected to do.
 
17 months? Sure. After that I think is the point where the hardware really starts to show its age, but it would probably continue to see success for a while regardless.
 
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lemonfresh said:
N64 fell off at the end of its life
Gamecube fell off at the end of its life
Wii fell off at the end of its life
Wii u fell off at the end of its life

You get my point
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consoles.

Phantom Thief said:
Gameboy didn’t.
Gameboy Advance didn’t.
DS didn’t.
Even 3DS didn’t.
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handhelds.



Switch is best of both worlds and will have the handheld advantage on its side. Anyway, I think console sales are a very flawed measure of success for a console this far into its lifespan, per the OP's initial question.
 
totofogo said:
consoles.


handhelds.



Switch is best of both worlds and will have the handheld advantage on its side. Anyway, I think console sales are a very flawed measure of success for a console this far into its lifespan, per the OP's initial question.
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one thing that definitely gets lost in the shuffle in all this is switch software is still selling ridiculously , we may have a record breaking new metroid release in the 5th year of the system when before on any other nintendo system we would be lamenting if the 5th year was too late to release such a thing and sending the game to die .
 
Pandora said:
one thing that definitely gets lost in the shuffle in all this is switch software is still selling ridiculously , we may have a record breaking new metroid release in the 5th year of the system when before on any other nintendo system we would be lamenting if the 5th year was too late to release such a thing and sending the game to die .
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exactly. There's a heck ton more money in software and subscriptions for Nintendo, as long as their platform engagement stays up they're good... and the Switch audience isn't really at risk of major bleeding to one of the next gen consoles
 
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I expect switch to have another 35-40 million unit sales in its own "product cycle" after this current fiscal year.

  • FY 2022-23: ~18-20m unit sales (spurred by long-awaited price cut, Switch 4K talk intensifies)
  • FY 2023-24: ~10-12m unit sales (Switch 4K launches and steals thunder but is supply-constrained)
  • FY 2024-26: ~6-8m unit sales (Switch 4K in full force, but additional revisions and price cuts reel in price-conscious customers)

Software slate remains strong thruout ☝️
 
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Kano said:
This feels like trying very hard to find excuses to justify a new console releasing this soon when in reality, there's just no need for.
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It doesn't need to happen per se, but there's mounting evidence that it is happening. You can choose not to believe the rumors, but they're all pointing towards a planned 2022 launch (with a possibility to slip because no release date is certain during the pandemic) and that's a significant factor that's informing my views on the subject.

And before you say "but the rumors were wrong about 2021", it's a lot more likely that information got mixed up about two different models than the reports of a 4k Switch we're just entirely wrong. Developers probably didn't find out about Switch OLED significantly before we did, if at all, because it's largely irrelevant to them.
 
BOTW 2
Splatoon 3
Bayonetta 3
Pokemo Arceus
Mario & Rabbids
Plus whatever other unannounced games they got coming i definitely think they can not just survive but thrive the next 17 months
 
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Why wont it? At the very least 2024, given the track, switch will live as long as Nintendo support it with new games, switch will phase out when Nintendo decides its time for a new hardware and move the games pipeline there.
 
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Kano said:
No, I don't think there are lol. The fact that you are quick to justify the obvious indications that it's bogus with a theory that isn't backed by anything shows it further.
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And what exactly are these "obvious indications"?
 
Kano said:
The fact that i am not playing on a switch pro right now, when it was supposed to release a year ago
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When did anyone claim that? There were some claims it would be this year, but there were some very obvious opportunities for wires to get crossed with Switch OLED.
 
Sure, its possible that the grow of hardware-sales may decline over the months. But it will sell still decent anyway.

And with the insane software on the horizon, like SMT V, MH Sunbreak, Advance Wars, Kirby Forgotten Lands, Splatoon 3, Mario &Rabbids Spark of Hope, Bayonetta 3, BOTW 2 and the many unnanounced Games like Metroid Prime Remake or Xenoblade 3, there are no need to worry.
 
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The hardware battle remains both the most interesting and most deeply frustrating part of Nintendo discourse right now, and it will remain that way until whatever is allegedly coming finally shows up.
 
Pokemaniac said:
When did anyone claim that? There were some claims it would be this year, but there were some very obvious opportunities for wires to get crossed with Switch OLED.
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Pretty sure Bloomberg first reported it'd be out in 2019 even. Then 2020. Then 2021. And now 2022.

Got a good feeling we'll have the same talk next year about 2023!
 
Raccoon said:
The hardware battle remains both the most interesting and most deeply frustrating part of Nintendo discourse right now, and it will remain that way until whatever is allegedly coming finally shows up.
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I can just say now, no one is reaching an agreement on this switch 4k/pro/whatever stuff at this point until something happens, and even then no one is gonna ever concede they were wrong.
 
Kano said:
Pretty sure Bloomberg first reported it'd be out in 2019 even. Then 2020. Then 2021. And now 2022.

Got a good feeling we'll have the same talk next year about 2023!
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c'mon kano wires just got crossed with the switch lite (oled model), 2023 for sure
 
Kano said:
Pretty sure Bloomberg first reported it'd be out in 2019 even. Then 2020. Then 2021. And now 2022.

Got a good feeling we'll have the same talk next year about 2023!
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There was a report in 2019 that was obviously referring to the Mariko Switch. That system could have been made into a "Switch Pro" if Nintendo wanted to, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Nintendo even experimented with that, but ultimately they decided against it.

I'm not aware of any claims that hardware would launch in 2020, but I could be forgetting something.

Since late 2020, everyone has either been saying 2021 or 2022, and there's a pretty obvious explanation for where the 2021 date came from (there would be no overlap in sources that would know about a more powerful Switch and sources that would know about Switch OLED until basically the point where the latter got revealed).
 
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