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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

but will that be enough to carry a 6yo hardware that was already outdated when it was launched?
I don't think this was the general consensus when it launched. Most people were saying given the form factor, battery limitations, price, etc... that it was a very competent hybrid console.
 
I don't think this was the general consensus when it launched. Most people were saying given the form factor, battery limitations, price, etc... that it was a very competent hybrid console.
The narrative about Switch hardware got rewritten pretty quickly.

It was considered very competent mobile hardware upon release but people now use the fact that it's 2017 mobile tech against it.
 
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I really just disagree. I think there is a fundamental software-oriented qualification for what constitutes a new platform. The Switch 2 will end up being a distinct software target from the Switch 1 due to the different graphics architecture and code.

The next Switch model…with Dane/DLSS…is still going to target render every Switch game at 540p-720p in handheld mode.

Which means, there is no game made for the “Switch Pro” that couldn’t have a version running on the OLED Switch/Lite

I think you are expecting something more fantastical than the reality of this piece of architecture they are producing this year. Nintendo is certainly going to treat it as an enhancement, not a replacement

Pretty much every Nintendo exclusive will have a Switch X1/X1+ hardware target profile version.

It’s a revision/iteration. The OLED Switch is meant to prolong the base Switch model for another 4-5 years (they’ll phase out the LCD models)…because the power upgrade model is a mid gen release.
 
The next Switch model…with Dane/DLSS…is still going to target render every Switch game at 540p-720p in handheld mode.

Which means, there is no game made for the “Switch Pro” that couldn’t have a version running on the OLED Switch/Lite

I think you are expecting something more fantastical than the reality of this piece of architecture they are producing this year. Nintendo is certainly going to treat it as an enhancement, not a replacement

Pretty much every Nintendo exclusive will have a Switch X1/X1+ hardware target profile version.

It’s a revision/iteration. The OLED Switch is meant to prolong the base Switch model for another 4-5 years (they’ll phase out the LCD models)…because the power upgrade model is a mid gen release.
That's all well and good but the rumored Dane chip is on a different graphics architecture and Switch software uses precompiled graphics code. It's not so much about performance as it is the prospective break in low-level code compatibility.
 
I realize I'm just another guy not providing a direct link, but Aonuma said it publicly in the Direct itself shortly following the trailer.
I just double checked and you’re right. I thought the doubt on the year was cast early. So yeah two spots at E3, the Direct and the press release, where they use the “aiming for 2022” language.
 
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I mean, sure???
This year has the potential to be its peak. And it's possible next year is the peak. Even if you expected a huge drop like 50% for 2023 that'll still be 10-15m.
And I can bet my ass that whatever Dane is will be counted alongside current Switch so it's possible it does 20m once again(or twice, thrice...)
Again, points of comparison to the Switch are Game Boy, PS2, DS and PS4. It will last more than its predecessors, it will receive major revisions, and even if a successor comes it'll sell for years after its release(just like PS2 sold for years after PS3 came out and PS4 is still selling after PS5 came).
I don't know how Switch can not survive??? I mean next year we already now it'll be packed as hell and 2023 will be just as much. If it's a successor it'll be loads of cross gen for years with Switch still being a 100-200$ cheaper console, if it's a major revision it'll be counted alongside current model.
 
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My growing concern, which I expect to be so unpopular that I'm spoilering it, is that Apple is about to eat the Switch alive.

Not a chance.

The PC…and the other consoles…have almost always edged out Nintendo machines in terms of hardware power.

Doesn’t affect Nintendo success at all.

It all comes down to content.

Nintendo will always have tons of games and gameplay you just can’t find anywhere else quite like them.

Apple won’t have them either. It’s also why the Steam Deck will sell 10x less than the Switch.
 
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I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
Tbh I have the same feeling??? I mean, Wii U came out in 2012 and 2011 was really shitty for the Wii in both sales and titles released, and now people expect Nintendo will stack 2022 with loads of huge games just so they release a traditional successor, make some cross gen games and that's it???
It literally makes no sense. Like at all. It's literally like if Sony released PS5 in 2017, one year after releasing a revision and the year after the console's peak.
We don't even know anymore what year will end up being Switch's peak as the thing will sell literally every unit that's capable of being manufactured.
Plus no way in hell Nintendo will abandon a 120m+ install base that can grow even bigger.
 
Not only will it last that long, it will last even longer. I think a "Switch 2" won't release until 2024, and even after its release, the original Switch will still be supported by smaller first party software releases for several years. Famicom lasted until 1994, Super Famicom until 2000... DS had some first party releases after 3DS, and 3DS lasted until 2019! The original Switch has a long life ahead of it.
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Exactly!!!!!!!!!!!
Not only that but the fabled PS4 and Xbox One people insist to compare had 7 years lifespan before getting successors and will still be receiving major first and third party AAA games next year and beyond.
People are insisting too much into seeing Switch life cycle as a repeat of the Wii but are missing the point that it had its peak higher than the Wii and during its fifth fiscal year, and might even be beaten!!!
Also I'm of the opinion Switch gen will be like Game Boy gen where there's a revision with exclusive games(only that in this case it'll be only third party) but there's no real successor for a while.
 
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That would be disappointing if so to be honest. I mean, I'd love a more powerful Switch, but a Switch 2 releasing as soon as 2022 would just be ... ewww.
The other reason I don't really believe it's a Switch 2 is because it's probably releasing with BotW 2, and that game was at some point even expected internally to come in 2020.
I think the revision might've been planned to release as early as this year's spring but got pushed back due to pandemic and shortages and more software coming in 2022. Well if this thing was to be launched holiday 2021, with OLED being like 2020 or not happening at all, we would be expecting the same lifespan for the Switch as the Wii U.
So yeah, I'll not believe in Dane being a successor until Nintendo announces it as such.
 
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My growing concern, which I expect to be so unpopular that I'm spoilering it, is that
Apple is about to eat the Switch alive.

A clearly marketed shiny new device with two killer apps, BOTW2 and a new Mario Kart, might be the best way to combat that.

Apple aren't going to do anything. Despite things like genshin impact existing, the base for console games is fundamentally different to the mobile market. Genshin is probably as close as you can get and it hasn't even caused a blip in BOTWs continued success.
 
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We dont even know if this is Switch Peak year.
If it is, going by previous one, they will still have 2 more years in the burner.

Also depends if Nintendo wants to go back to the old MO of releasing consoles in the holidays rush or reuse the Switch maneuver and release at the tail of Winter when there is basically no competition for consumers attention
 
Sure anything can get delayed but acting like it's more likely to be a 2023 game than a 2022 game is odd. It's officially slated for 2022, there's currently not much of a reason to think it'll miss that even though of course it's possible.

Yeah, given that we've actually seen some of it now I think a delay would be kind of weird. It again probably depends if new hardware is next year or later.
Sure.
A delay this time around will be way weirder because they actually waited two full years before giving a release year.
It's not the same situation as the original BotW where they gave a 2015 release date right in the reveal, reconfirmed it again in December 2014 just 4 months before announcing it was delayed. I mean I don't know how they ever thought 2015 was possible as the game only entered development in January 2013??
But this time around they revealed the game in 2019, without any aimed release window. Didn't show the game at all in 2020. Shown the game at E3 2021, with a 2022 release date. I think that if they waited this long to say anything about the release window, it's because they're confident they can deliver or are close to completion (not close in the gone gold sense but close like most is done, take a while to polish and add content)
I’m trying to find the direct source, but it was said “aiming for 2022” around E3. If you google “aiming for 2022 with Breath of the Wild there are articles saying Aonuma said it, but no direct link.

Edit: Googling yielded me a Jason Schreier tweet saying it was from the E3 press release.


I mean until it's released it's "aiming" for that date. Schreier post even sounds like shitpost to me. If it's aiming to 2022 we expect it for 2022, not for it to miss the target.
I’m sure Nintendo will make every effort to get it out sooner than later, but if they aren’t fully committed yet (it was their E3 press release that had “aiming for”) I think it’s better to not count on it and be happy if it does. The big Zeldas seemingly always get delayed.
If they put the 2022 in the end of the trailer, and unlike Twilight Princess and BotW1, only do so after two years instead of right on the reveal, they are fully committed.
Only thing about BotW2 is that it was shown way too early and probably internally delayed because they gone for a bigger scope + covid.
We had more extreme cases on the Switch with SMT V and Bayonetta 3. Both announced even before actual full development began. But when shown again, SMT V came with a release year. And that release year is right, no delay. I believe the same for Bayo 3, made us await almost 4 years, but when shown, it'll come the next year. I expect the same for BotW 2. They gone 2 years radio silent, but when they gave a release window, it makes it.
 
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I think there's absolutely no question that Switch will be able to hold its own until March 2023. Whether things should be stretched any further than that without a successor is ultimately the question at hand. And there is a (if I may say so) false dichotomy at play in a lot of the discourse surrounding this that @Raccoon alluded to, mostly by virtue of this being a forum for predominately middle-class video game enthusiasts and people reading WAY too deeply into Nintendo's words on the subject when the Switch launched (which has a tendency to blow up in people's faces, I might add).

Everyone is quick to say "Switch is doing so well without a price drop" and seeming to ignore the obvious: Switch WILL see a price drop. Because there are a great many people who will be able to financially acquire a Switch at that price, with an amazing software lineup that they will happily grab up (especially if they do budget re-releases of software), even if a Switch successor is present on the market.
PS2 did not get to the sales figures it had incidentally; it got there with price drops to put it in reach of more consumers, even with few to no new releases. Between March 2006 until it was discontinued in 2013(?), PS2 managed to sell an additional 50 million units; in the first full fiscal year after the PS3's release (FY ending March 2008), PS2 sold 13.7 million units. Likewise, right before the 3DS was released, a DS model could be acquired for $99 or less, which is part of the reason why it sold 17 million units in the fiscal year immediately preceding the launch of the 3DS, with the other being its fantastic software lineup alongside that great hardware pricing. Switch will have both of those things.

This is not an either/or scenario, never has been. A hardware successor can release and Switch can continue to sell and do well, especially depending on how Nintendo positions its software releases (like how deeply Nintendo embraces the notion of cross-gen development).
Additionally I think folks should stop making “will xbox/ps effect the switch” happen , it didn’t in 2017, it didn’t in 2020, i don’t think it will by 2023.
Nintendo does not, and never has, existed in a vacuum. It may not effect sales in the short term, but let's not pretend that hardware can keep its peak indefinitely. Better to roll out new hardware on a high note, not a sour one. As you mention, Wii is a bit of an outlier in this way, as Nintendo's hardware tends to get succeeded by new hardware before hardware and software sales have an opportunity to take a downturn, not after.
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
You mean this statement from NoA president Doug Bowser? That really does not preclude a hardware successor, only that Nintendo sees longevity in the Switch, which may or may not include a long period of cross-gen game releases. A "mere 6 years" is the statistical average lifespan of every piece of Nintendo hardware ever released. And yes, that statistical average includes the outlier that is the Game Boy.
I'd be willing to concede 7 years without a hardware successor with a release in March 2024 is equally possible, but I do not consider a hardware successor to mean the immediate death of the Switch for the reasons I outlined above, which should not be even remotely controversial.
It’s been amusing to me how insistent folks are in still comparing the switch to past nintendo systems (and not even the right ones ) while it from the get go has been something nintendo has never done before and nintendo insisting themselves it will go differently than past systems have gone . but hey i’m just having my fun humoring folks at this point .
They want the switch to be more of a platform going forward so it’s more likely we get a step up revision over a successor for a while and at that point it’ll be a clear upgrade without a break in service for a lot of people
I'd like to see some exact quotes, because things going differently doesn't inherently mean they're not going to release new hardware.
Like, I vaguely recall the quotes you both seem to reference, and I may be misremembering them (hence the request to see them), but all that those quotes are telling me is that Nintendo is really happy with what they did with the Switch's console/handheld hybrid design and, for the first time in forever, they're not going to re-invent the wheel and will stick by the Switch's core design principles with gentle tweaks. No massive control redesigns (as they have done with every console controller they've made since 1990, 30 years ago), not forking their development to 2 platforms again, not rocking the boat. Just the Switch, but substantially better performance and likely a bigger dedication to cross-gen where applicable.
That feels very much in line with the spirit of the quotes I believe that you're referencing.
This has been my view for awhile. Essentially a successor that Nintendo doesn’t consider a successor.
Oh, Nintendo very much abandoned the original Game Boy after Game Boy Color came out, so they certainly treated it as a successor. Their last internally developed release that supported the original Game Boy was... the GBC launch titles like Wario Land 2? If you consider Game Freak an internal studio (which LOLno), Pokemon Gold/Silver? Then they did the same thing to the Game Boy Color when the GBA was released.
oh yeah probably lmao

the "survive" thing is kind of weird phrasing, even if hardware sales dropped off a cliff software retention is still high. the only unknown factor that could detriment it is Apple's gaming efforts imo


Apple's got a lot going for it right now. Incredible ARM performance at high efficiency, a huge market of existing users, an ungodly amount of capital. Whether it pays off is anybody's guess, but it's pretty much the only thing that could significantly impact the Switch or Switch 2's prospects

EDIT:
@Galgavias here's the rumor I was thinking about
As @Phantom Thief suggests, if this is anything like the Apple Television and the Apple Car, we've got at least another 10 years before they actually happen, if they happen at all.
The only thing more bonkers than Nintendo hardware rumours are Apple hardware rumours, so make of that what you will.
Conversely:

Gameboy: 14 years
Nintendo DS: 7 years
Nintendo 3DS: 7 years
If you consider Switch its successor, 3DS only had 6 years, actually.
And the Game Boy Advance is mysteriously absent here. It lasted 3 and a half years before the release of the DS, selling 76.8 million units by 2006 (2 years after the DS was released), averaging out to something like 15 million units per year. Using the LA Times number of 33.8 million units sold as of FY ending March 2003, that actually indicates GBA sold more units per year in the tail end of the system's life than it did in its first 2, but they still cut the GBA's lifespan short due to circumstances beyond Nintendo's control coughPSPcough.
 
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Something else I hadn't considered is that they might've left their relationship with Epic Games too damaged to secure Unreal Engine for their rumored new platform.

The more I think on it, the less hopeful I get for it too.
I'm sure Epic would be happy to start working with Apple again, but Apple has made it clear they want nothing to do with Epic.
Tbh I have the same feeling??? I mean, Wii U came out in 2012 and 2011 was really shitty for the Wii in both sales and titles released, and now people expect Nintendo will stack 2022 with loads of huge games just so they release a traditional successor, make some cross gen games and that's it???
It literally makes no sense. Like at all. It's literally like if Sony released PS5 in 2017, one year after releasing a revision and the year after the console's peak.
We don't even know anymore what year will end up being Switch's peak as the thing will sell literally every unit that's capable of being manufactured.
Plus no way in hell Nintendo will abandon a 120m+ install base that can grow even bigger.
This idea that Nintendo has to either stick with the current Switch or drop it completely for a successor is a false dichotomy. Among people expecting a new system sooner rather than later, it's widely expected that there will be a fairly extended cross gen period, with it possibly being multiple years before the new system gets a first party exclusive.
 
I'm sure Epic would be happy to start working with Apple again, but Apple has made it clear they want nothing to do with Epic.
On iOS, sure. There's a lot of money to be made there.

I'm not convinced Epic would willingly help Apple get an entire platform off the ground. I'm not convinced they wouldn't, either; I just don't know.

I think the most likely outcome would be using Fortnite on iOS as a bargaining chip.
 
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Honestly, it’s like some forgot the 3DS existed during the Switch’s first year.

I have no idea when a potential Switch follow up will release, but I think both systems can exist next to each other. I do think more strong rumours will appear next year. Nintendo hasn’t alluded to anything yet, but I think March 2023 is a tad too early. I’m thinking somewhere near the of 2023.
 
This idea that Nintendo has to either stick with the current Switch or drop it completely for a successor is a false dichotomy. Among people expecting a new system sooner rather than later, it's widely expected that there will be a fairly extended cross gen period, with it possibly being multiple years before the new system gets a first party exclusive.

I think this is largely the point of base disagreement, as part of the Pro vs 2 discourse, in that I've seen quite a number of people expect a successor to necessarily arrive much later as a clean break from the Switch, whereas others expect the Switch and successor to coexist for some time with many new games being a shared library; this muddles the designation of iteration or successor and allows both the new hardware to release in the nearer future and the Switch to continue living its long and prosperous life.

The release of new hardware does not necessitate the abandonment of the old.
Especially with the consolidated development teams, the lack of two disparate development pipelines, and the likelihood that new releases constitute a shared library.

For those who require a successor to be a direct break, this might even appear to be a Pro model, even if the hardware is a clear leap ahead of what we have now.
 
That's all well and good but the rumored Dane chip is on a different graphics architecture and Switch software uses precompiled graphics code. It's not so much about performance as it is the prospective break in low-level code compatibility.
Same deal for the AMD consoles going from GCN2/4 to RDNA. This is hardly a new phenomenion and much like AMD did, I don't doubt Nvidia can deliver a good enough interpreter for BC on future Nintendo hardware.
 
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yes yes yes sir, most people dont care/cant tell the difference on the tech aspects we notice as nerds.Also, great slate of games for 2022, its sales will naturally decline but come 2023 the switch will be around 120 million systems sold, which is pretty damn good
 
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Switch Dane will coexist with Switch for a few years. It has to. You know why? Because there’s no way this thing costs less than $400. Not to mention the software that will be cross gen (Zelda “aiming for 2022” launch anyone?). Switch will be the “budget” option, while the first true exclusive to arrive will be Mario Kart X in late 2023. That’sa game that will sell any hardware you put it on.
 
It can survive but the perceptual damage only increases the longer comparisons are made to newer hardware, and that doesn't affect Switch but potentially it's successor. They need to be mindful / careful of their release timings IMO - they've made this mistake a few times.
 
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Switch Dane will coexist with Switch for a few years. It has to. You know why? Because there’s no way this thing costs less than $400.
Care to elaborate on this point? This is at least sounding a lot more grounded than the $500 price point I've seen mentioned elsewhere.
 
I think there are multiple ways for the Switch to "survive". The Switch within the gaming culture, at this point, I'm honestly not sure how many more hardware pushers they can make for the original Switch unless they bank on a new entry in an existing franchise to blow up like Animal Crossing did (I don't think anything would blow up to the same extent, but still). Sales-wise, it'll be fine; Nintendo's 2022's lineup is crazy for Switch and it'll only get better from here. Software-wise, it'll still be fine; most PS5 software in 2022 is also hitting on PS4 so studios themselves are not even making the big shift to fully next-gen. Plus, Switch is the best indie machine so as long as that support is still plentiful, nothing will truly feel compromised in the wake of next-gen.

If the DLSS, or Nintendo-equivalent, is present in the Switch 2, I personally think that'll be enough to futureproof Nintendo for a long time. Internals definitely need to be beefier to make that work but the image will be clean and, more importantly, framerates will be solid. I'd imagine most people would take a worse-looking game if it still runs okay.

I'm honestly not sure the Switch OLED will see huge numbers for as long as these Switch 2/Pro reports keep happening. I think people will hold off.

Not US, worldwide. But when you compare it to the weekly sales from the rest of the previous financial quarter (usually between 250-350K), that’s a nice jump.

It’s on vgchartz. I wish I was more savvy to be able to link on my phone.

(Also without getting too much off topic, it could just be first week “beginners luck” for the OLED. I’m just saying, the numbers were impressive and makes me think the Switch will continue to sell well).
Yeahhhh never ever trust vgchartz. Bullshit site, bullshit numbers.
 
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The Switch has enough in it to keep selling into the beginning of 2024. It should still be doing pretty good sales in March 2023 and given supply constraints for the OLED and the insane 2022 lineup, 2022 could wind up being the peak year of the Switch (yes I'm Team 2022)
 
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If the next Switch is fully backwards compatible then the original could continue selling at a discounted price for a long time.

Personally I just hope it at least runs original Switch games in their docked profile while playing in handheld.
 
While I expect Switch to slow down, there's no question in my mind that it 'survives' the next 17 months (which is really a bizarre choice of word, but ok). I'm in the camp that expects any upgraded system (successor or iteration, whatever) from Nintendo to be more of a gradual transition than a clean break. Even with Switch slowing down, it will clear 20 million shipments this fiscal year and I expect it won't be far off 20 million shipments the following fiscal year.

It's arguably the most interesting period of Switch's lifespan. We know something more powerful is coming, but we don't know what it is, and we know another wave of major software is also shaping up for the next 18 months, too. Gonna be fascinating to see exactly what happens, but after that 18 months, I expect Switch will still be a major presence in the games industry, with an enormous install base and ongoing software support from Nintendo, even if that software support is moving 'cross-gen'.
 
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Most of the complaints I hear about the Switch relate to complaints that were voiced at launch.

How has the market changed since? Not at all from a Switch perspective.

Mobile? Still where it was in 2017, frankly there's been zero major innovations game wise or hardware wise.

Console? I mean it's the same situation. Those games either won't come to switch or will be ports down the line.

If Steam work with OEMs on their handheld competitior then I think Nintendo will take notice. Price is a key issue but so is availability. Right now Nintendo is fine but I heavily doubt Nintendo has not noticed that Monster Hunter is likely playable on a handheld competitor next year.

The primary issue for Nintendo will be exhausting the consumer base and hardware sales falling - but unlike Wii I think their software sales will hold up and importantly their release schedule will not be fucked. This is the entire point of merging their console and handheld products.

Switch is a proven product. Switch 2 will sell well if it has the games coming to it. Personally I think availability of components will be the bigger factor in any decision.

Am more excited about what Nintendo might do with the OS now their cooking with more heat - the Wii was before it's time, I'd like that Nintendo again.
 
If the next Switch is fully backwards compatible then the original could continue selling at a discounted price for a long time.

Personally I just hope it at least runs original Switch games in their docked profile while playing in handheld.
Forcing docked mode is unlikely to be allowed. Some Switch games are likely to react badly to that and force undesirable control limitations or switch over to their TV specific settings.

It will likely be possible to run games in portable mode with hardware power closer to the current docked mode, but the games will most likely stay running in portable mode.
 
Of course it'll last with the games library it has and will continue to have. Not sure if it'll last two years though.
 
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Care to elaborate on this point? This is at least sounding a lot more grounded than the $500 price point I've seen mentioned elsewhere.

I'm not @mariodk18, but I've definitely seen the $400 price point floated around, largely drawing from the $350 current price of the OLED model and figuring that model might see a price decrease to make it the more-affordable option after the successor arrives.

Sometimes another $50 or $100 is figured onto the successor, whether to make the difference more noticeable, to allow for the OLED model to retain its price, or to account for potential component costs for the new model.

Maybe mariodk has a different rationale, but this is largely what I've seen.
 
I'm not @mariodk18, but I've definitely seen the $400 price point floated around, largely drawing from the $350 current price of the OLED model and figuring that model might see a price decrease to make it the more-affordable option after the successor arrives.

Sometimes another $50 or $100 is figured onto the successor, whether to make the difference more noticeable, to allow for the OLED model to retain its price, or to account for potential component costs for the new model.

Maybe mariodk has a different rationale, but this is largely what I've seen.

Now, while I doubt this to be true and the hardware improvements likely cost a bit closer to the $50 extra that the OLED model costs (due to costs not mentioned, like the metal frame on the interior of the OLED), it does indicate that the extra price probably only exists to ensure that OLED Switch offers the same profit per unit sold as a Switch or Switch Lite, which was estimated based on teardowns to be $20-40 per unit back in 2017. Who knows what their profit-per-unit is now, probably closer to $60-100 thanks to greater production yields when transitioning the entire lineup to the 16nm Tegra X1+ "Mariko" instead of the standard 20nm Tegra X1 used at launch and overall decreases in all component parts over time.

If Switch OLED sells really well, I could see Nintendo establishing a $350 retail price baseline for the launch of whatever you want to call what comes next.
 
I say it survives as long as the software is there. If the software is there it will continue to have legs.
 
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I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
This.
 
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.


I know this has been addressed throughout the thread, but many people thinking there will be new hardware in the near future (late '22 - early '23) also expect the new hardware will be positioned to exist alongside the current Switch for some time yet. The idea is that the Switch will remain a viable option, with much of the new slate of games being playable on both it and the new console.

The release of new hardware does not necessitate that the old is immediately replaced and cut off. Most people who expect new hardware also expect the Switch to continue to sell alongside it.

There have been reports of devkits in developers' possession for some time now. It's not unrealistic to expect new hardware. But that doesn't mean the current hardware would be immediately replaced, and such replacement doesn't appear to be the most common conclusion among people expecting a new hardware.
 
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
I'm of the opinion that the next hardware iteration will be the Switch's successor in everything but name, and that the current Switch will slowly be phased out. That way the Switch doesn't actually die for a while.
 
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I know this has been addressed throughout the thread, but many people thinking there will be new hardware in the near future (late '22 - early '23) also expect the new hardware will be positioned to exist alongside the current Switch for some time yet. The idea is that the Switch will remain a viable option, with much of the new slate of games being playable on both it and the new console.

The release of new hardware does not necessitate that the old is immediately replaced and cut off. Most people who expect new hardware also expect the Switch to continue to sell alongside it.

There have been reports of devkits in developers' possession for some time now. It's not unrealistic to expect new hardware. But that doesn't mean the current hardware would be immediately replaced, and such replacement doesn't appear to be the most common conclusion among people expecting a new hardware.
I’m not sure Nintendo would want to have again two different systems at the same time (ala Wii U/3DS). Supporting two systems would lead to droughts for one of them and that’d be reverting to the old strategy (pre-Switch). A new, more powerful Switch that’s also backwards compatible and selling at the same time with some but not all exclusives (ala Gameboy Color, DSi, New 3DS) is more likely to launch fall 2022 or early 2023, IMO, not a completely new system.
 
oh yeah... no problem with the games coming out next year.

That said I expect hardware sales to start declining
 
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I’m not sure Nintendo would want to have again two different systems at the same time (ala Wii U/3DS). Supporting two systems would lead to droughts for one of them and that’d be reverting to the old strategy (pre-Switch). A new, more powerful Switch that’s also backwards compatible and selling at the same time with some but not all exclusives (ala Gameboy Color, DSi, New 3DS) is more likely to launch fall 2022 or early 2023, IMO, not a completely new system.
With a modern BC system, they can have two systems without any of the downsides. Just look at what their competitors are doing with PS5/XS.
 
Looking at the pipeline
Botw2, splatoon3, bayo3, pokemon arceus already announced and probably prime remaster/make/4, next monolith, some outrage from capcom, yes the switch will survive some years ,whatever the new revision will be marketed it will not be the end of switch support.
 
I’m not sure Nintendo would want to have again two different systems at the same time (ala Wii U/3DS). Supporting two systems would lead to droughts for one of them and that’d be reverting to the old strategy (pre-Switch). A new, more powerful Switch that’s also backwards compatible and selling at the same time with some but not all exclusives (ala Gameboy Color, DSi, New 3DS) is more likely to launch fall 2022 or early 2023, IMO, not a completely new system.
That's not what he's suggesting though. He's referring to exactly what you are, a new Switch system that will share the majority of the library but the old one will still keep selling for a while after it's out.
 
That's not what he's suggesting though. He's referring to exactly what you are, a new Switch system that will share the majority of the library but the old one will still keep selling for a while after it's out.
Yeah, it seems like there's a miscommunication somewhere, but the origin of such eludes me.
This:
I know this has been addressed throughout the thread, but many people thinking there will be new hardware in the near future (late '22 - early '23) also expect the new hardware will be positioned to exist alongside the current Switch for some time yet. The idea is that the Switch will remain a viable option, with much of the new slate of games being playable on both it and the new console.
sounds pretty much like this:
A new, more powerful Switch that’s also backwards compatible and selling at the same time with some but not all exclusives (ala Gameboy Color, DSi, New 3DS) is more likely to launch fall 2022 or early 2023, IMO, not a completely new system.
So I'm really not sure where this miscommunication is coming from.

Earlier in the thread -- though not particularly too much earlier --, I even addressed some of this as the whole Pro-Vs-Successor thing was going on, that new hardware can blur that line by being a clear step up but also supporting backwards compatibility and having a largely shared library as the two consoles coexist for a while (and that this seems to lead to miscommunication based solely on the terms Pro and Successor):
I think this is largely the point of base disagreement, as part of the Pro vs 2 discourse, in that I've seen quite a number of people expect a successor to necessarily arrive much later as a clean break from the Switch, whereas others expect the Switch and successor to coexist for some time with many new games being a shared library; this muddles the designation of iteration or successor and allows both the new hardware to release in the nearer future and the Switch to continue living its long and prosperous life.

The release of new hardware does not necessitate the abandonment of the old.
Especially with the consolidated development teams, the lack of two disparate development pipelines, and the likelihood that new releases constitute a shared library.

For those who require a successor to be a direct break, this might even appear to be a Pro model, even if the hardware is a clear leap ahead of what we have now.

Anyhow, this goes back to responding to a direct restatement of this from the first page:
Kano said:
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.

The answer is, of course, that most of these people don't actually expect the Switch to be replaced immediately as described, which has been explained earlier in the thread. The generally expected concept -- and with this I tend to agree -- is that Nintendo will release new hardware that is essentially a successor but shares concepts some might associate with a "pro," such as the aforementioned library-sharing, and that the two pieces of hardware will coexist for some time.
(I might add a suspicion that the OLED model will become the standard model, so as to streamline production lines)
We seem to be in agreement on this point; again, there must be some breakdown in communication somewhere.

The other part of the answer is that there is evidence of new hardware on the none-too-distant horizon, that
there have been reports of devkits in developers' possession for some time now. It's not unrealistic to expect new hardware. But that doesn't mean the current hardware would be immediately replaced, and such replacement doesn't appear to be the most common conclusion among people expecting a new hardware.

Basically, despite there being evidence of new hardware, nobody (well, probably someone somewhere) expects the initial statement to come to pass. It's setting up a cardboard cutout to lock in the stocks and throw rotten vegetables at, which I guess provides untold hours of merriment as it props up the local market for rotten produce.
 
With a modern BC system, they can have two systems without any of the downsides. Just look at what their competitors are doing with PS5/XS.

A Switch hybrid with 3x the power + DLSS for 4K output will essentially be what a home-console-only Nintendo system could offer anyways, so it’s irrelevant.

It’s only one system for Nintendo now. With an incredibly long lifespan.

If they want to play around with hardware an new kinds of gameplay, they will come as peripherals to the Switch platform.
 


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