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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

Guaraná

Guaraná

Paratroopa
First of all, in this thread, we believe the Switch 2 will be released in March 2023, or 17 months from now.

By this time the original Switch will already be 6 years old and the PS5 and XS will have over 2 years in the marketing with a robust library of games and some heavy hitters like Halo, Elden Ring, Horizon Forbidden, etc... Switch has some amazing titles for 2022 and 2023, but will that be enough to carry a 6yo hardware that was already outdated when it was launched? Or Nintendo is risking seeing their sales plumb like Wii?

definition of not survive: selling like the Wii in its final year
definition of survive: sell like the PS4 in its final year.
 
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... yes, especially because of the insane software slate in 2022.

Also what do you mean by "survive" here? Their sales will probably drop but that has been the case for any and all 6 year old consoles. I certainly don't see a dropoff like the Wii though.
 
More than anything else it's the first party Nintendo support that keeps the Switch's sales going, and looking at what's coming up in 2022 and beyond, I'd say things look good for the system where sales are concerned. People keep comparing the Switch to the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, but it's been abundantly clear for a while now that the Switch is doing its own thing. I'm sure that the new consoles will have some impact on the Switch's sales, but I don't think it will be nearly as much as many people think. The Switch isn't exactly competing with them, it's a "second console".
 
How drastically do you think it is gonna drop after a 20+ million unit year, a still thriving indie market and, oh yeah, a bunch of hot shit slated for next year starting from month 1?

Switch was outdated when it launch. Ok, so what has changed? It is still outdated. Still portable.
 
I’m not sure why the Wii is still the go to example when switch is going to fly past it by the end of the year already and has long since outlasted it’s peak year launch aligned. If anything it’s more comparable to the original gameboy or nintendo ds which more than “lasted” 6 years . Additionally I think folks should stop making “will xbox/ps effect the switch” happen , it didn’t in 2017, it didn’t in 2020, i don’t think it will by 2023. So to answer your question within your premise , I think the switch more than “lasts” until march 2023.
 
Even if sales slow due to market saturation or whatever, doesn't that mean the install base is still incredible? I'm not a expert by any stretch of the imagination, but having so many Switches in the wild isn't exactly a BAD thing right?
 
It's not even lowering the price significantly. If it ever gets like the 99 quid Ps2's then kids will have them for donkeys years.
 
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Does anyone actually legitimately unironically believe it’s going to wind down to like 5 million units a year after 3 years of 20 million units or above? Wat
 
What exactly are we calling Wii’s and Ps4’s final years ? cause PS4 actually kinda got its knees cut off last year as sony shifted production hard towards ps5 due to not being able to meet demand for both . however they are still doing some shipments of ps4 systems this FY even if meager if I recall ?
 
Nintendo first party is good (and different) enough to keep Switch going. Games outside of indies and some other exceptions have turned into interactive Hollywood movies for the most part. Nintendo is the only first party that still lets you “play.”
 
The PS4 peaked in 2016 and wasn't replaced until the end of 2020.

It's peak was a lot lower than the Switch's.

The Switch's sales curve couldn't be further from the Wii's.

So yes, quite obviously it has enough in the tank to last another two years.
 
Honestly, I imagine we're at a point where market saturation may be a concern. In terms of software, however, 2022 seems incredible, so maintaining sales until March 2023 seems possible.
 
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Switch's 2022 is shaping up very nicely indeed with plenty of big name releases coming. It'll continue to sell well as a result, particularly if PS5 and Xbox continue to have stock issues early next year. That said, I can see this being the last big year for Switch sales. Numbers will probably begin to decline from here on out, especially if rumours of a Switch successor pick up the pace.
 
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Kano said:
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
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I know, right? Dane is clearly an upgrade just like the new 3DS.

😁
 
Regarding sales? Absolutely, it might not hit the top spot in NPD like it did in the last 30something months, but it won't fall off a cliff simply because there's compelling software coming up.

Regarding tech? Difficult to say, if it's true that devs have already voiced their demands for stronger hardware, Nintendo shouldn't keep them waiting for too long. Losing projects due to that would be bad after building up a successful market now.
 
Kano said:
I have no idea how people are coming to the conclusion that the fastest selling system ever made, with the biggest potential for longevity ever, described by its own company as a product that will redefine the length of console cycle, will get replaced after merely six years. It just puzzles me.
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It’s been amusing to me how insistent folks are in still comparing the switch to past nintendo systems (and not even the right ones ) while it from the get go has been something nintendo has never done before and nintendo insisting themselves it will go differently than past systems have gone . but hey i’m just having my fun humoring folks at this point .
 
I think it'll last at least another year and a half. It's still selling well and 3rd parties are still making an effort to port last gen games onto it. I think 2023-2024 is the sweet spot for a new Switch, but that's just how I see things.
 
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yes, it will survive, perhaps for another few years: the driving force behind switch sales are first-party games, there's still a demand for the switch.

additionally, i don't think we should compare wii sales to switch sales since the market has grown substantially since then; there are far more people interested in gaming & nintendo specifically now than ever.
 
I believe that in the fiscal year between March 2022 and March 2023 with the planned releases Switch can perfectly sell more than 20 million and by inertia it could also do it between March 2023 and March 2024.
It depends on Nintendo if Switch continues to have somes good launches in 2023 and 2024 so that the rhythm stays at around 20 million per year until the successor comes out, which I would not wait until at least 2024 .
We may have new revisions, like a better performing revision, but I would not expect a successor until 2024 at least.
 
I thought these threads were left behind on Era?

First, the Switch wasn’t underpowered when it launched. It was very powerful for a portable device.

Second, the Switch will continue to perform well. At times outselling the PS5 and almost always outselling the Series X/S. Games like Bayonetta 3, Splatoon 3, Metroid Prime remake and BotW2 will also be better than most games released on rival platforms.
 
BlueManifest said:
How many systems did PS4 sell in its 5th year?
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Currently with 4 years and 6 months in the market, the total and the sales rate of the Switch consoles is higher than that of PS4 in the same period of time.
In fact, the Switch's sales rate in 4 years and 6 months is higher than that of any console except Nintendo DS.
 
Easily, but in 2022 Nintendo will need to start setting expectations with people by talking about the next generation even if it’s a tease of what that includes.
 
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Yes, definitely it can and will, and that's just given the first party software we know about and its current sales trajectory.

But the people saying a Switch 2 isn't needed until 2024 or 25 are out of their minds.

As you've said, March 2023 is the sweet spot. And if they miss that, Holiday 2023 won't be any big disaster either.
 
As long as Nintendo keeps bringing the good shit, I don’t think I care.

But yes, I think the Switch will continue to do well. Maybe not bonkers good like it has been, but still pretty good.
 
YolkFolk said:
At times outselling the PS5 and almost always outselling the Series X/S. Games like Bayonetta 3, Splatoon 3, Metroid Prime remake and BotW2 will also be better than most games released on rival platforms.
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Rather it is the other way around.
PS5 barely manages to surpass Switch sales, only on rare occasions like this past September in the USA, probably due to the expectation of the OLED Switch by a large public. In fact, PS5, after 10 months on the market, already has a sales rate lower than that of Switch in its first 10 months on the market. I think PS5 can sell roughly 17 ~ 20 million between March 2021 and March 2022, while Switch will surely sell around 25 million between March 2021 and March 2022.
 
Onizuka said:
Currently with 4 years and 6 months in the market, the total and the sales rate of the Switch consoles is higher than that of PS4 in the same period of time.
In fact, the Switch's sales rate in 4 years and 6 months is higher than that of any console except Nintendo DS.
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Yea I just wanted to know how much PS4 sold in its 5th year specifically to get an idea of how much the switch could drop in its 6th year
 
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Will it be enough to survive? Yes. Despite certain gaming bubbles, people care about the software first above all else, and of course, the hook with the system is the hybrid nature of it.

That’s the thing with the console space. Everything gets outdated fast; the PS3, the PS4, etc.

Even the 3DS was successful, despite sales dropping off towards the end as it was already out for a good while.

One can’t really look at the DS and how it did because it’s a different world than it was then. That was before smart phones and the DS had a ton of titles that would become a staple of smart phone gaming. There was no way the 3DS would realistically sell those numbers as the market had fragmented.

The Switch will be fine until Switch 2 releases. And even that will become outdated fast because it’s the nature of tech.

I will however disagree that the Switch was outdated upon release. It was not. Can’t compare it to a TV console like the PS4. The Switch for what it could do and sell for 299.99 to keep it affordable (and not long after 199.99) was quite something.
 
Absolutely. Nintendo has a lot of strong software planned for the next year+ that will help keep console sales strong. It will be nothing like past Nintendo consoles.

Wii- After 2010 support really dried up. You had Zelda, a Kirby game, the Operation Rainfall collection (which took a miracle and a half). That and a few party games was pretty much the entire support of the Wii for the final two years. By that point most people were moving on from the Wii. PS360 had more features like better media apps, better online play, HD, ect. The Wii had pretty much been branded a kiddy console by then.

Wii-U- Nintendo figured out after 2014 that nothing was saving this system so they likely moved as many projects as possible to the next system. The 2016 lineup looked ok on paper, but the games for the most part didn't translate into success. Nintendo gets a pass here because they started the Switch very strong in 2017.

The Switch, while underpowered, it still relevant in today's world. The graphics are still ok, the software keeps rolling in, and the "console and portable" hook is still just as appealling.
 
Normally I would say “no”, but holy crap did you see the sales figures for Switch OLED from the opening week? It was over 800,000!

And as others stated, the software lineup is super strong for 2022. Switch will keep selling like it is until January 2023 I’m guessing.
 
Jesus, your guys are too defensive. I just made a thread with a simple question, I didn't conclude anything. lol
I only opened this thread here because of all the places, here is a forum where we can have a valid and fair discussion about a topic that, to me, seems relevant: the final months of one of the best consoles Nintendo ever made.
 
SpringwoodSlasher said:
Normally I would say “no”, but holy crap did you see the sales figures for Switch OLED from the opening week? It was over 800,000!

And as others stated, the software lineup is super strong for 2022. Switch will keep selling like it is until January 2023 I’m guessing.
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I did not see this news. Is there a thread?
 
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Raccoon said:
This is true.


This just won't last unfortunately. I think we're at a point where the Switch will dip comfortably into third place in hardware sales with software sales staying high.
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It will be a while before Xbox outsells Switch, just based on the fact Switch will continue to sell a few million units per year in Japan.
 
SpringwoodSlasher said:
Normally I would say “no”, but holy crap did you see the sales figures for Switch OLED from the opening week? It was over 800,000!

And as others stated, the software lineup is super strong for 2022. Switch will keep selling like it is until January 2023 I’m guessing.
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Wow 800K in its first week? Where did those figures come from? It is practically almost a million in one week (and the Stock is exhausted, since for example in Japan there are retailers that say they have a demand of up to x16 with respect to the amount they can offer).
Switch's sales rate is very high.
 
yes, easily. the 2020 lineup is crazy good. it's not really the typical last-year-of-a-nintendo-system lineup.
 
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Guaraná said:
Jesus, your guys are too defensive. I just made a thread with a simple question, I didn't conclude anything. lol
I only opened this thread here because of all the places, here is a forum where we can have a valid and fair discussion about a topic that, to me, seems relevant: the final months of one of the best consoles Nintendo ever made.
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I don’t think we are near the final months. There is plenty of new things that can still release on the launch model and be perfectly enjoyable and have good sales. Once they release the Switch 2/Pro/whatever, then we will see what happens, but even then Nintendo might go cross-gen for a while or play it by ear. Even the PS5 and Series X have largely been cross-gen systems.
Next year they should have Breath of the Wild 2, Bayonetta 3, a 3D Kirby, a Pokemon and possibly Prime 4 which was announced for the Switch so I doubt they’ll move it off the system. I’m sure they’ll have plenty more they haven’t even mentioned just like they did this year. None of this feels like they expect sales to fall off a cliff once they announce a successor.

Edit: I forgot Splatoon 3!
 
Guaraná said:
Jesus, your guys are too defensive. I just made a thread with a simple question, I didn't conclude anything. lol
I only opened this thread here because of all the places, here is a forum where we can have a valid and fair discussion about a topic that, to me, seems relevant: the final months of one of the best consoles Nintendo ever made.
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I'm not really seeing much defensiveness (maybe some aggression though), some folks simply don't seem to agree with the premise or want more data. Heck as stated, it is seemingly the best console Nintendo has ever made, with one of the best software lineups, and latest sales peak, So it's a bit of a headscratcher the concept it would have a successor in even a shorter span than even contemporary consoles it will outpace have had (both ps4 and xbox one lasted 7 years). But even besides all that, the simple answer seems to be, most think it can easily last the next 17 months or beyond.
 
Expect Switch OLED replacement rates to be crazy. There are 90 million Switch + Switch lite owners out there and I totally expect at least 60 percent of them to get OLED in that time period.
 
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