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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

9-Volt said:
Expect Switch OLED replacement rates to be crazy. There are 90 million Switch + Switch lite owners out there and I totally expect at least 60 percent of them to get OLED in that time period.
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I think more like 20% I think that was around the rate for the PS4 pro
 
BlueManifest said:
I think more like 20% I think that was around the rate for the PS4 pro
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If you think like an mainstream gamer, OLED is more substantial upgrade compared to PS4. 3DS to 3DS XL replacement rate was around 50% I believe, big screen matters a lot.

And OLED Switch is cheaper compared to PS4 Pro.
 
SpringwoodSlasher said:
Normally I would say “no”, but holy crap did you see the sales figures for Switch OLED from the opening week? It was over 800,000!

And as others stated, the software lineup is super strong for 2022. Switch will keep selling like it is until January 2023 I’m guessing.
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Source on that 800k?
 
The PS4's death was staved off by Fortnite and other F2P Battle Royales until the pandemic hit. If those didn't come, PS4 would have declined a lot and struggled to outsell the Wii. The Switch, on the other hand, is still selling quite a bit and Nintendo's games are the fuel to the engines. So as long they keep releasing noteworthy titles, we shouldn't see a rapid decline like the Wii.
 
It can survive the next 3 years easily if needed even. Especially since their first party output is so crazy thanks to the hybrid nature (handheld and console nintendo devs developing for 1 system)

My guess is a 7 year lifespan. Might aswell keep the train going and have the switch succesor ready whenever sales decline.
 
It'll be fine. Software will hold it up until the successor launches. I'm not sure why you'd start comparing the Switch to the Wii now.

9-Volt said:
If you think like an mainstream gamer, OLED is more substantial upgrade compared to PS4. 3DS to 3DS XL replacement rate was around 50% I believe, big screen matters a lot.

And OLED Switch is cheaper compared to PS4 Pro.
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Are reviewers not mainstream? Because most of them are calling it a nonessential upgrade. The recommendation is to buy it if you don't have a Switch or consider it if you have a launch unit. OLED will help Nintendo for this FY, but I doubt hardware sales will be as strong in the next.
 
PS4 pro and oled aren’t really comparable products , the choice between buying a ps4 pro and a ps4 slim for most consumers who aren’t already tech evangelists was 100 dollars (or more depending on sales), potentially upgrading to a new tv to get the benefits of any features , and nebulous stuff like improved framerates which is again hard to sell to a non tech evangelist buyer .

With the switch oled the difference right now is 50 dollars , for a much more premium feel you will experience more directly (improved kickstand , bigger screen , oled , bezel , better speakers) with no additional accessories or purchases required . most of the additional benefits can be seen immediately and don’t need to be explained by a best buy rep. I’d expect replacement rates and just the general consumers willingness to splurge on the oled to be much higher than 20% for these reasons .
 
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Dunban said:
Are reviewers not mainstream? Because most of them are calling it a nonessential upgrade. The recommendation is to buy it if you don't have a Switch or consider it if you have a launch unit. OLED will help Nintendo for this FY, but I doubt hardware sales will be as strong in the next.
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Yeah they're not, people also called 3DS XL a useless iteration but sales proved otherwise. It was so big, Nintendo discontinued regular, cheaper 3DS and no one cared. As I said, bigger screen matters a lot for a lot of people.
 
9-Volt said:
Yeah they're not, people also called 3DS XL a useless iteration but sales proved otherwise. It was so big, Nintendo discontinued regular, cheaper 3DS and no one cared. As I said, bigger screen matters a lot for a lot of people.
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The screen size difference isn't nearly as notable here though, the original 3DS had a really small screen. I just can't see it making nearly as much of a difference this far along in the Switch's lifecycle. I guess we'll see how it does next year. I think software will be the real highlight of these years before the successor.
 
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BlueManifest said:
Just in the US?
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Not US, worldwide. But when you compare it to the weekly sales from the rest of the previous financial quarter (usually between 250-350K), that’s a nice jump.
Skittzo said:
Source on that 800k?
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It’s on vgchartz. I wish I was more savvy to be able to link on my phone.

(Also without getting too much off topic, it could just be first week “beginners luck” for the OLED. I’m just saying, the numbers were impressive and makes me think the Switch will continue to sell well).
 
Guaraná said:
definition of not survive: selling like the Wii in its final year
definition of survive: sell like the PS4 in its final year.
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I’m assuming for the sake of this exercise, Wii’s final year was 2012 and Switch’s final year is 2022.

Wii sold under 5 million units in 2012 and didn’t have a single major release, outside of a Kirby collection, a Mario sports compilation, and Xenoblade (in the US).

Switch is projected to sell 25 million this FY, so I’ll be conservative and say it will sell 18 million in 2022 (it’ll probably sell more) and has Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, 3D Kirby, Bayonetta 3, BotW 2, and probably another half dozen unannounced first party titles.

I think Switch will survive until 2023.
 
They want the switch to be more of a platform going forward so it’s more likely we get a step up revision over a successor for a while and at that point it’ll be a clear upgrade without a break in service for a lot of people
 
The only way it "dies" that fast is if a successor IS announced. Otherwise it has more than enough fuel in the tank to easily last past that. Software next year looks crazy already, and the system is essentially still in its prime sales-wise
 
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Dunban said:
It'll be fine. Software will hold it up until the successor launches. I'm not sure why you'd start comparing the Switch to the Wii now.


Are reviewers not mainstream? Because most of them are calling it a nonessential upgrade. The recommendation is to buy it if you don't have a Switch or consider it if you have a launch unit. OLED will help Nintendo for this FY, but I doubt hardware sales will be as strong in the next.
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Most reviews I have seen of the OLED have been unexpectedly glowing, which is far more important imo on howI see this device being received and how it sells than whether or not reviewers saw it as an essential upgrade or product. premium products are premium because they are generally non-essential but offer some benefits for those who want to splurge .


And again sometimes the perception of a generally tech savvy reviewer demographic (or forum demographic) and say the general public don’t align. That said I don’t think the Oled model is going to set the world on fire , but I see it performing better than early takes of it would have one believe .
 
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Yes, easily. I don’t think sales will go down soon, especially with 2 Pokémon games and a MH expansion in sight.
 
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SpringwoodSlasher said:
Not US, worldwide. But when you compare it to the weekly sales from the rest of the previous financial quarter (usually between 250-350K), that’s a nice jump.

It’s on vgchartz. I wish I was more savvy to be able to link on my phone.

(Also without getting too much off topic, it could just be first week “beginners luck” for the OLED. I’m just saying, the numbers were impressive and makes me think the Switch will continue to sell well).
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Ah vgchartz uses completely fabricated numbers. They're completely worthless.
 
Oregano said:
It will be a while before Xbox outsells Switch, just based on the fact Switch will continue to sell a few million units per year in Japan.
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Yeah, fair enough. I was assuming Xbox would find its legs at some point soon, but that may be a bit optimistic.
 
I think that the Switch audience is different from Wii. A lot of people bought Wii to experiment with motion controls. Seeing the Nintendo Switch and the crazy software sales it's clear to me that people are buying it to play Nintendo games. So I believe if they keep the stream of good games on the last year they will be fine. Just for comparison:

Twilight Princess (Wii day one) - 7.53M
Breath of the Wild(Switch day one) - 23.20M

Mario Galaxy(Wii) - 12.80M
Mario Odyssey(Switch) - 21.40M

BOTW sold 3x compared to TP, the prior best seller
Odyssey is almost 2x Galaxy. Smash Bros is almost the same.

Nintendo Switch is a crazy software sale machine. I can't see it dying like Wii on the last year.
 
balgajo said:
I think that the Switch audience is different from Wii. A lot of people bought Wii to experiment with motion controls. Seeing the Nintendo Switch and the crazy software sales it's clear to me that people are buying it to play Nintendo games. So I believe if they keep the stream of good games on the last year they will be fine. Just for comparison:

Twilight Princess (Wii day one) - 7.53M
Breath of the Wild(Switch day one) - 23.20M

Mario Galaxy(Wii) - 12.80M
Mario Odyssey(Switch) - 21.40M

BOTW sold 3x compared to TP, the prior best seller
Odyssey is almost 2x Galaxy. Almost the same for Smash Bros.

Nintendo Switch is a crazy software sale machine. I can't see it dying like Wii on the last year.
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Yeah that’s the thing that is amazing me about the Switch. The software attach rate is incredibly high.

Even though at this point the Wii has sold more units, the software attach rate is not nearly as high (except for Mario Kart Wii and Wii Sports). You’re absolutely right - people are buying Switch because they are actually interested in first party Switch games (and the fact that it’s also a handheld device, but you get what I mean).
 
Beard said:
I’m assuming for the sake of this exercise, Wii’s final year was 2012 and Switch’s final year is 2022.

Wii sold under 5 million units in 2012 and didn’t have a single major release, outside of a Kirby collection, a Mario sports compilation, and Xenoblade (in the US).

Switch is projected to sell 25 million this FY, so I’ll be conservative and say it will sell 18 million in 2022 (it’ll probably sell more) and has Pokemon Legends, Splatoon 3, 3D Kirby, Bayonetta 3, BotW 2, and probably another half dozen unannounced first party titles.

I think Switch will survive until 2023.
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to add to this , the wii didn’t sell 5m immediately from its peak , its peak was fy ending march 2009 with 26m~ and the following years it sold 20m, 15m, 9m and then finally under 5m like you said . If switch followed this same exact “cliff” trajectory from its seemingly 2020 peak of 29m~ through 2021-2024, it would still sell about 50m more units than it has now.
 
Pandora said:
to add to this , the wii didn’t sell 5m immediately from its peak , its peak was fy ending march 2009 with 26m~ and the following years it sold 20m, 15m, 9m and then finally under 5m like you said . If switch followed this same exact “cliff” trajectory from its seemingly 2020 peak of 29m~ through 2021-2024, it would still sell about 50m more units than it has now.
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Yep, exactly. It’s pretty much impossible for Switch to sell in 2022 like Wii did in its final year.
 
Nintendo's so confident instead of doing a price cut they released a new more expensive model instead. I think it'll be fine, especially with Splatoon 3, BotW 2 and maybe more coming.
 
Raccoon said:
This just won't last unfortunately. I think we're at a point where the Switch will dip comfortably into third place in hardware sales with software sales staying high.
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Switch will do well through 2022 and outsell Series X/S I’d imagine. March 2023 would be perfect for the new system to arrive.
 
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Yeah. It won’t be selling as it is, but it will still sell well enough to thrive, and not just survive.
 
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Skittzo said:
I know, right? Dane is clearly an upgrade just like the new 3DS.

😁
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At least that's more believable, even if still unlikely, than a freaking successor releasing merely six years after the original lol.

Pandora said:
It’s been amusing to me how insistent folks are in still comparing the switch to past nintendo systems (and not even the right ones ) while it from the get go has been something nintendo has never done before and nintendo insisting themselves it will go differently than past systems have gone . but hey i’m just having my fun humoring folks at this point .
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Really, despite that we're wayyy past any previous convention at this point.
 
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Easy yes. Switches are still selling like hotcakes. And considering the software releases for 2022…
 
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Guaraná said:
definition of not survive: selling like the Wii in its final year
definition of survive: sell like the PS4 in its final year.
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PS4 in its final year is selling poorly, we have seen how it slowed down recently
Is the topic considering PS4 final year as pre-ps5-launch?

Just to understand.
 
To be honest, while I understand that Nintendo is working on a Switch successor, I'm not really feeling any finality in the Switch's lifespan at this point moreso than just that 2020 had a significant impact on delaying their current projects. Animal Crossing is getting a DLC expansion and the 2022 lineup is looking meaty, so it doesn't seem to me like the Switch will struggle for years to come.
 
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Skittzo said:
So more or less the same dropoff as the Wii. Just later in the lifecycle and from a lower peak.
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Yea , again between unexpected demand from covid and then also having to meet ps5 demand ps4 was dropped hard like a rock. same obviously for xbox and I still absolutely do not believe switch will be handled the same at all.
 
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It can, but no more than 20.

The system is already showing its age and third party developers are already complaining about its lack of power, becoming the cloud the only way to play games like Control or Kingdom Hearts. And probably the sales will be lower this year than 2020, and lower for 2022.

I think it can do well on 2022, but considering the games that will be announced for PS5 and Series X during next year and how good they will look like, we can expect people to lose interest on the Switch. 2023 should be a good year for a successor. They'd better announce very good looking games at E3 2023 for the successor.
 
marmoka said:
It can, but no more than 20.

The system is already showing its age and third party developers are already complaining about its lack of power, becoming the cloud the only way to play games like Control or Kingdom Hearts. And probably the sales will be lower this year than 2020, and lower for 2022.

I think it can do well on 2022, but considering the games that will be announced for PS5 and Series X during next year and how good they will look like, we can expect people to lose interest on the Switch. 2023 should be a good year for a successor. They'd better announce very good looking games at E3 2023 for the successor.
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You’re simply describing the traditional console life cycle. Switch sales naturally declining in its final years is completely normal and in no way signals an unhealthy platform.
 
The only game that has ever made me want a switch successor is hyrule warriors AOC. I love my machine. Between amazing indies and first party games my backlog is massive. It could easily go another year or two. You’ll lose some enthusiast players, sure, but the vast majority of switch players are going to be just fine.
 
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Guaraná said:
for this thread, the last FY.
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Ok, but...

Pandora said:
For reference :
PS4 shipped 13.4m in FY ending march 2020 and then 5.8m in FY ending March 2021.
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Skittzo said:
less the same dropoff as the Wii. Just later in the lifecycle and from a lower peak.
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This was my doubt. I think that Wii and PS4 dropp off have been pretty comparable.
If for this thread we are asking: is the Switch going to DIE as fast as the Wii before the true successor will be introduced in the market, my reply is: NO.

It will slow down by a good margin YoY next FY imho (despite its GREAT software lineup with Splatoon 3, Pokemon Arceus, Zelda BOTW2...) but it still will sell decenlty (unlike the Wii) until its true successor will be introduced in the market
 
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I believe it can. Because of third party software of all things. Look at things like gta trilogy remaster. I can see switch getting a couple more of these. We know Alan Wake remaster is coming. These are the type of games Nintendo will be depending on to keep it afloat. All we can hope for is good ports. We saw how dying light turned out. The crysis ports are good. It’s good to be a switch owner right now. We don’t have everything but this is pretty decent third party support.
 
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Guaraná said:
definition of not survive: selling like the Wii in its final year
definition of survive: sell like the PS4 in its final year.
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How about it will likely outsell PS4's best year?

It's going to sell over 25 million this year, and if it falls to anything above 20 million the following year, which is highly likely, it will have outsold PS4's best year on the market which was 20 million consoles.
 
Hardware will decline, as it should obviously given its position in its lifecycle. But strong software will help maintaining its relevancy.
Wii hadn't strong software like these in its twilight years. Also its differenciation point (some would say "gimmick") had been copied by the competition, so the hardware was even less desirable, having lost its main attraction and leaving it with the fact that it was severely underpowered at a time when cinematic showpieces were gaining a lot of steam.
Switch still is the only mainstream handheld and only mainstream Hybrid. It will lose some superb obviously but it will "survive" imo.
 
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Guaraná said:
First of all, in this thread, we believe the Switch 2 will be released in March 2023, or 17 months from now.

By this time the original Switch will already be 6 years old and the PS5 and XS will have over 2 years in the marketing with a robust library of games and some heavy hitters like Halo, Elden Ring, Horizon Forbidden, etc... Switch has some amazing titles for 2022 and 2023, but will that be enough to carry a 6yo hardware that was already outdated when it was launched? Or Nintendo is risking seeing their sales plumb like Wii?

definition of not survive: selling like the Wii in its final year
definition of survive: sell like the PS4 in its final year.
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No way it's going to sell like the Wii in its last days. SW support will be there, Wii hadn't any and was just another kind of beast.

Also, Switch HW was far from oudated in 2017 imho.
 
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Beard said:
You’re simply describing the traditional console life cycle. Switch sales naturally declining in its final years is completely normal and in no way signals an unhealthy platform.
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Yup, as I pointed out the peak year for the PS4 was 2016! It declined for 3 years before it was replaced.
 
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