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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

Interesting, so a "native" Switch 2 game could be part of the files for a "native" Switch 1 game, but software with only files for Switch 1 will most likely have a system compatibility layer to handle it?
Obviously there would be some sort of metadata flags to identify which games natively support the platform, but yeah, more or less. Some games may choose to have separate executables, and Nintendo could choose to design things so there's a clearer separation, but, given that the Switch is a somewhat storage constrained platform, I expect Nintendo will go with a setup that tries to minimize the amount of duplicated data.
 
I think we can argue semantics regarding what the hypothetical next Switch will look like until we're blue in the face, but fact is the Switch is four and a half years old now. Come March 2023 it'll be six, which places it right at the end of the normal historical console lifecycle. Nintendo may sneak another year or so out of it sure, but beyond that? When their competitors will have way more stock of their latest devices available, leaving the Switch behind both graphically and in desireability?

I can't forsee a scenario in which Nintendo go beyond March 2024 without launching a device that they treat and market as a new console. How powerful it is, and how it will iterate on the Switch itself, these points remain to be seen. But they can't afford to dawdle at a time when every other company is moving forward.

I know we had all that talk about hardware iterations and continuous incremental updates in the past, but honestly, nothing gets tongues wagging like a brand new console. It's working swimmingly for Sony right now.
 
Obviously there would be some sort of metadata flags to identify which games natively support the platform, but yeah, more or less.
Sure, sure. Despite my misunderstandings of the details of these platforms I am a programmer by education lol

Anyway it's a semantic debate for sure, but I personally would still consider that setup a "Switch 2," even if that doesn't mean anything

Another awesome first for the Switch.

Every generation has its fanboy wars. But to start a fanboy civil war is incredible.
Honestly Nintendo fans have the most discontent and internal battles of any of those of the current three market players simply due to the variety within series, between consoles, etc. For example, @wookiee thinks the Switch fucking sucks and is not alone in that. We have "Wii U truthers," imagine if the Sony fans had "PS3 truthers" or some shit

Fan relations are humorously reflective of the market, too: Xbox and PlayStation are in stern competition, while Nintendo and its fans are only fighting themselves.
 
I think we can argue semantics regarding what the hypothetical next Switch will look like until we're blue in the face, but fact is the Switch is four and a half years old now. Come March 2023 it'll be six, which places it right at the end of the normal historical console lifecycle. Nintendo may sneak another year or so out of it sure, but beyond that? When their competitors will have way more stock of their latest devices available, leaving the Switch behind both graphically and in desireability?

I can't forsee a scenario in which Nintendo go beyond March 2024 without launching a device that they treat and market as a new console. How powerful it is, and how it will iterate on the Switch itself, these points remain to be seen. But they can't afford to dawdle at a time when every other company is moving forward.

I know we had all that talk about hardware iterations and continuous incremental updates in the past, but honestly, nothing gets tongues wagging like a brand new console. It's working swimmingly for Sony right now.
My growing concern, which I expect to be so unpopular that I'm spoilering it, is that
Apple is about to eat the Switch alive.

A clearly marketed shiny new device with two killer apps, BOTW2 and a new Mario Kart, might be the best way to combat that.
 
2022 is absolutely packed with games and Breath of the Wild 2 and Metroid Prime 4 are seemingly both 2023 titles so it’ll be fine. We also have three Trails games slated for Switch in 2023 which would be a weird thing to announce so far in advance if Switch was dying anytime soon. Still no price drop in sight either which could easily give Switch a shot in the arm.
 
My growing concern, which I expect to be so unpopular that I'm spoilering it, is that
Apple is about to eat the Switch alive.

A clearly marketed shiny new device with two killer apps, BOTW2 and a new Mario Kart, might be the best way to combat that.
I do think it's a valid point that in a couple of years time smartphone gaming will have power equal to, if not more powerful, than the current Switch. I'm sure Nintendo have that in mind too. It's another reason for not resting on their laurels.

However Nintendo do operate their own niche at the moment where they, and really only them, can offer the kind of big budget gaming experience that you can take with you as well as play on your TV. That's something Smartphone gaming still hasn't come close to yet.

It's all about marketability, which is why I can't see a new Nintendo console being a total clean break. A snappy new device with an exciting launch lineup, as well as compatability with your existing Switch library (and in some cases significant updates) would do the job provided the messaging is clear, and the device isn't a total bust.
 
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Just in reference to the OP.

Switch will have a better year this year than other competing console or portable in history.

Without a price drop.
oh yeah probably lmao

the "survive" thing is kind of weird phrasing, even if hardware sales dropped off a cliff software retention is still high. the only unknown factor that could detriment it is Apple's gaming efforts imo


Apple's got a lot going for it right now. Incredible ARM performance at high efficiency, a huge market of existing users, an ungodly amount of capital. Whether it pays off is anybody's guess, but it's pretty much the only thing that could significantly impact the Switch or Switch 2's prospects

EDIT:
@Galgavias here's the rumor I was thinking about
 
2022 is absolutely packed with games and Breath of the Wild 2 and Metroid Prime 4 are seemingly both 2023 titles so it’ll be fine. We also have three Trails games slated for Switch in 2023 which would be a weird thing to announce so far in advance if Switch was dying anytime soon. Still no price drop in sight either which could easily give Switch a shot in the arm.
?

BotW 2 is confirmed for 2022.
 
it's rarer now but games do get delayed still. Animal Crossing was one, iirc Yoshi or something was another
Sure anything can get delayed but acting like it's more likely to be a 2023 game than a 2022 game is odd. It's officially slated for 2022, there's currently not much of a reason to think it'll miss that even though of course it's possible.
 
Sure anything can get delayed but acting like it's more likely to be a 2023 game than a 2022 game is odd. It's officially slated for 2022, there's currently not much of a reason to think it'll miss that even though of course it's possible.
Yeah, given that we've actually seen some of it now I think a delay would be kind of weird. It again probably depends if new hardware is next year or later.
 
oh yeah probably lmao

the "survive" thing is kind of weird phrasing, even if hardware sales dropped off a cliff software retention is still high. the only unknown factor that could detriment it is Apple's gaming efforts imo


Apple's got a lot going for it right now. Incredible ARM performance at high efficiency, a huge market of existing users, an ungodly amount of capital. Whether it pays off is anybody's guess, but it's pretty much the only thing that could significantly impact the Switch or Switch 2's prospects

EDIT:
@Galgavias here's the rumor I was thinking about
Hardware sales will not drop off a cliff anytime soon. No price drop yet. Huge releases. OLED.

Even when it has its regular mature console drop in 2022-23 from 25 million plus this year, it will still likely be above 20 million, which to put in perspective is better than the PS4's best year, and PS4 sold great.
 
oh yeah probably lmao

the "survive" thing is kind of weird phrasing, even if hardware sales dropped off a cliff software retention is still high. the only unknown factor that could detriment it is Apple's gaming efforts imo


Apple's got a lot going for it right now. Incredible ARM performance at high efficiency, a huge market of existing users, an ungodly amount of capital. Whether it pays off is anybody's guess, but it's pretty much the only thing that could significantly impact the Switch or Switch 2's prospects

EDIT:
@Galgavias here's the rumor I was thinking about
Honestly, I have wondered how long it would be until the likes of Apple and Amazon start offering games direct to TV via their streaming service, but you can argue that the market is big enough to support multiple players now. And even then there's no guarantee of success. Look at Stadia.

Nintendo are operating in the right niche for them right now, and I think they'll be fine for the foreseeable. I would say a general shift towards streaming and Gamepass-esque services may present bigger challenges to their business, as opposed to the efforts of any one or two companies.
 
BotW 2 is confirmed for 2022.
I’m trying to find the direct source, but it was said “aiming for 2022” around E3. If you google “aiming for 2022 with Breath of the Wild there are articles saying Aonuma said it, but no direct link.

Edit: Googling yielded me a Jason Schreier tweet saying it was from the E3 press release.

 
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Honestly, I have wondered how long it would be until the likes of Apple and Amazon start offering games direct to TV via their streaming service, but you can argue that the market is big enough to support multiple players now. And even then there's no guarantee of success. Look at Stadia.

Nintendo are operating in the right niche for them right now, and I think they'll be fine for the foreseeable. I would say a general shift towards streaming and Gamepass-esque services may present bigger challenges to their business, as opposed to the efforts of any one or two companies.
I just wonder what the pricing would look like for an Apple hybrid. They've been competitive before (~$300 iPad), so I could see them being aggressive towards the Switch and its successor if they want that space
 
I’m trying to find the direct source, but it was said “aiming for 2022” around E3. If you google “aiming for 2022 with Breath of the Wild there are articles saying Aonuma said it, but no direct link.
I mean in the direct itself it said "2022".

I feel like people took that whole"aiming" thing way too hard, I didn't even notice it the first time I saw the direct.

Regardless, even if they're just "aiming" for 2022 that's still more of a reason to expect 2022 than to expect a delay.
 
I just wonder what the pricing would look like for an Apple hybrid. They've been competitive before (~$300 iPad), so I could see them being aggressive towards the Switch and its successor if they want that space
For that to be a success Apple would have to invest a huge amount of money to either secure or develop their own exclusives. We saw with Stadia that just having access to the same games you get on PlayStation and Xbox doesn't cut it on its own. If you want people to buy your console above the others, you need to give them a reason. Is Apple currently serious enough to pump in that kind of capital? Possibly, but I doubt it at the moment.
 
I mean in the direct itself it said "2022".

I feel like people took that whole"aiming" thing way too hard, I didn't even notice it the first time I saw the direct.

Regardless, even if they're just "aiming" for 2022 that's still more of a reason to expect 2022 than to expect a delay.
I’m sure Nintendo will make every effort to get it out sooner than later, but if they aren’t fully committed yet (it was their E3 press release that had “aiming for”) I think it’s better to not count on it and be happy if it does. The big Zeldas seemingly always get delayed.
 
I’m trying to find the direct source, but it was said “aiming for 2022” around E3. If you google “aiming for 2022 with Breath of the Wild there are articles saying Aonuma said it, but no direct link.

Edit: Googling yielded me a Jason Schreier tweet saying it was from the E3 press release.


If BOTW2 comes out in 2023 ... Yeesh

Feels like Nintendo has actually gotten worse about announcing games too early, and game delays in general, in the Switch's lifespan. Which is funny because I remember how optimistic people were after Breath of the Wild released, that that would never happen again. 😂
 
Considering the system hasn't even had an official price drop and will basically have a price increase in the Switch OLED after the bass Switch is phased out, I think it'll be just fine. Of course, they don't want to wait too long before a successor but 6-7 years is by no means too long. That's just standard for consoles now and it's not as if the Switch and PS/Xbox have much of an impact on each other anyways
 
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If BOTW2 comes out in 2023 ... Yeesh

Feels like Nintendo has actually gotten worse about announcing games too early, and game delays in general, in the Switch's lifespan. Which is funny because I remember how optimistic people were after Breath of the Wild released, that that would never happen again. 😂
The original Breath of the Wild, Metroid Prime 4, and Animal Crossing are probably their biggest high profile delays. Prime 4 definitely hurts the most, but I don’t really remember any of their other titles slipping too much. Someone said Yoshi earlier in the thread, but I don’t remember.

For Breath of the Wild 2 in particular regardless if it does get delayed or not, the longer it takes the more excited I get. When it was first announced, I think a lot of us expected a quick turnaround, but there must be some truly substantial additions if it is taking so long. Really looking forward to its next showing!
 
So more or less the same dropoff as the Wii. Just later in the lifecycle and from a lower peak.
thats wild, i always thought the finicky casual market, oversaturation of shovelware, and lack of "core" games on the wii is what lead to the drop off - none of which applies to ps4.
 
For that to be a success Apple would have to invest a huge amount of money to either secure or develop their own exclusives. We saw with Stadia that just having access to the same games you get on PlayStation and Xbox doesn't cut it on its own. If you want people to buy your console above the others, you need to give them a reason. Is Apple currently serious enough to pump in that kind of capital? Possibly, but I doubt it at the moment.
You can't just buy amazing games either. Well you can but it takes a long time. Even as giant as MS is, they're still building towards the future in terms of their own first party and way behind more established companies.
 
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Sure, sure. Despite my misunderstandings of the details of these platforms I am a programmer by education lol

Anyway it's a semantic debate for sure, but I personally would still consider that setup a "Switch 2," even if that doesn't mean anything
When it comes to the Pro vs 2 debate, I generally come down on the 2 side, but with the nuance that it'll actually fill the roles of both and that could influence the marketing a bit. Nintendo's past "Pro" revisions have all existed to keep things going for a couple years while waiting for the next generation hardware, while not being totally essential. Switch 2 will likely end up playing out similarly, but instead of waiting for hardware, it will be waiting for games that more fully take advantage of the new hardware, and a userbase to sell them to.
 
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The original Breath of the Wild, Metroid Prime 4, and Animal Crossing are probably their biggest high profile delays. Prime 4 definitely hurts the most, but I don’t really remember any of their other titles slipping too much. Someone said Yoshi earlier in the thread, but I don’t remember.

For Breath of the Wild 2 in particular regardless if it does get delayed or not, the longer it takes the more excited I get. When it was first announced, I think a lot of us expected a quick turnaround, but there must be some truly substantial additions if it is taking so long. Really looking forward to its next showing!
Yoshi's Crappy World and Fire Emblem: Three Houses were both slated for 2018. They both had a weird non-subtitle reveal of their 2018 release dates, though, so it's not too shocking in retrospect to see they'd be delayed, but still.

Animal Crossing, funnily enough, is probably the least bad delay Nintendo has ever had, despite being their second biggest hit on the Switch. It was only delayed a few months and honestly I think it had way more to do with the fact that Animal Crossing wouldn't have even brought in that much more new sales, because the Switch had so many games in late 2019 and the system was already supply-constrained, so it wouldn't have made sense to release it then at all. But still, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, BOTW2, Metroid Prime 4, Animal Crossing ... and that's not even including stuff like Bayonetta 3 that was never technically delayed, haha.
 
thats wild, i always thought the finicky casual market, oversaturation of shovelware, and lack of "core" games on the wii is what lead to the drop off - none of which applies to ps4.
The Wii's biggest issues were the lack of major software in its last years and the fact that two other consoles from Nintendo were coming shortly later.
 
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I get that March is a window people think will happen again, but 2023 on this month is too soon after what looks to be a tentpole calendar year of big releases. I believe Spring or Fall 2024 would be better, with the sales of 2022's games being an indicator for Nintendo on just which of these time frames to go for.
 
Thread title giving me flashbacks of the "Can <game> save the 3DS" threads of the past.

Switch has probably handily cleared any bars for "surviving" by now.
 
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I get that March is a window people think will happen again, but 2023 on this month is too soon after what looks to be a tentpole calendar year of big releases. I believe Spring or Fall 2024 would be better, with the sales of 2022's games being an indicator for Nintendo on just which of these time frames to go for.
Yep, 2023 would be the "off year" with maybe releasing Prime 4 and starting the marketing for Switch 2
 
I get that March is a window people think will happen again, but 2023 on this month is too soon after what looks to be a tentpole calendar year of big releases. I believe Spring or Fall 2024 would be better, with the sales of 2022's games being an indicator for Nintendo on just which of these time frames to go for.
Nintendo never does 7 years for a new console its always 5-6 years for every console lifetime.
 
Okay, so, given the current sales and trajectory, along with software slated for the next year, it seems almost unfathomable that Switch won't "survive" another 17 months.

Beyond that, let's assume for the sake of conjecture that a Super Switch releases in the late 2022 timeframe the Bloomberg article indicated developers were eyeing (Yes, I know there are those who disagree with considering that report, even if claiming to have 11 sources that don't exist would be ... something). With a move like that, one might think the Switch would be over. However, Nintendo has indicated they want the Switch to have a long life, and I'm inclined to believe that. Why wouldn't they want this?

If this Super Switch is backward compatible with the Switch, a great many games being released could be made for the Switch but, perhaps, receive improvements on the newer console. And we don't have completely separate handheld and home console pipelines to deal with anymore, so there can still be a steady stream of games that are playable on both.

Assuming price points leave the newer console fairly significantly higher priced than the original, people can still choose the cheaper option for these games.

Given the premise of the thread, the Switch should see less adversity than even that which is presented in this scenario.
 
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There is no Apple hybrid this year or next.

I'm actually not sure there is any Apple hybrid at all. Tim Cook's Apple takes a lot of time to move into a new hardware category; they took years to enter smartwatches, they've been talking about VR for eight years and haven't done anything, they basically gave up on their internal TV hardware (not the set top box, the actual TV) after a few years, and that Apple Car has been referenced for, what, 9 years now with nothing in sight?

Even assuming an Apple Switch exists (which, lol, it doesn't, Apple would never enter a market where it has to loss lead, and never enter a market where it is already earning more than all the incumbents put together without lifting a finger), we're not going to see it for a very long time.

Chill.
 
I think people should move on or stop trying to extrapolate from previous Nintendo consoles (or any consoles). The Switch is gonna keep surprising us and trying to pinpoint anything is futile imo
 
Nintendo never does 7 years for a new console its always 5-6 years for every console lifetime.
Their successful systems have all been at least 6 years, with the DS getting at least 6.5 years and the GameBoy's being like 10+ years. 5 years or less is only for their less successful systems. Never mind that Nintendo themselves want the Switch to have a longer lifespan than the usual Nintendo console, it's not inconceivable it's more in line with the DS in terms of lifespan than the GC or Wii
 
Nintendo never does 7 years for a new console its always 5-6 years for every console lifetime.
Conversely:

Gameboy: 14 years
Nintendo DS: 7 years
Nintendo 3DS: 7 years

Again, looking at the Switch as just a console is missing literally half the picture, given that the whole point is it's as much a console as it is a handheld. If you want to try to project Switch lifetime based on past trends (which in and of itself may not be the best idea given how unprecedented the Switch's life cycle has been so far, not just for Nintendo but in general), you should at least try to look at the whole picture rather than trying to just limit yourself to the console side of the equation, particularly when the Switch's success is, in most part, predicated on Nintendo's incumbent supremacy in the handheld and portable gaming market.
 
I think people should move on or stop trying to extrapolate from previous Nintendo consoles (or any consoles). The Switch is gonna keep surprising us and trying to pinpoint anything is futile imo
Bingo. Nintendo has never had a console selling this well at this stage in its lifecycle, and that doesn't just go for hardware. Software sales are absolutely explosive. We're in uncharted waters here folks.
 
The rumors are for a piece of hardware using a chip code named Dane, which is capable of DLSS.

Whether that's a Switch 2 as you say or a Switch pro or a Switch pineapple is completely unknown, there is no suggestion either way.
I'm pretty sure Nate directly confirmed it's a Switch Pineapple.

I’m trying to find the direct source, but it was said “aiming for 2022” around E3. If you google “aiming for 2022 with Breath of the Wild there are articles saying Aonuma said it, but no direct link.
I realize I'm just another guy not providing a direct link, but Aonuma said it publicly in the Direct itself shortly following the trailer.


@Raccoon, I'm curious as to how you expect Apple to match Nintendo on third party software, let alone first party. The Apple we know could absolutely make a device that kills Nintendo's upcoming hardware CPU performance and perhaps on GPU performance even after DLSS (as they'd be expected to be several process generations ahead of Nintendo), but that same Apple would need several philosophical shifts when it comes to API and middleware strategy to actually make it easier to develop for - especially for games targeting PS5 and Xbox. I could totally see a future where Apple makes a more attractive device than the upcoming Switch, but the Switch is the one with all the games.

Don't get me wrong; unlike most here, I don't think an Apple gaming hybrid would be dead on arrival. But I feel the stars would need to align for it to topple the Switch ecosystem.
 
I'm pretty sure Nate directly confirmed it's a Switch Pineapple.


I realize I'm just another guy not providing a direct link, but Aonuma said it publicly in the Direct itself shortly following the trailer.


@Raccoon, I'm curious as to how you expect Apple to match Nintendo on third party software, let alone first party. The Apple we know could absolutely make a device that kills Nintendo's upcoming hardware CPU performance and perhaps on GPU performance even after DLSS (as they'd be expected to be several process generations ahead of Nintendo), but that same Apple would need several philosophical shifts when it comes to API and middleware strategy to actually make it easier to develop for - especially for games targeting PS5 and Xbox. I could totally see a future where Apple makes a more attractive device than the upcoming Switch, but the Switch is the one with all the games.

Don't get me wrong; unlike most here, I don't think an Apple gaming hybrid would be dead on arrival. But I feel the stars would need to align for it to topple the Switch ecosystem.
I'd like to add that since Nintendo put all of its development power behind one platform, they're virtually invulnerable because their first party IP's alone can not only sustain them, but easily dictate the majority of their hardware and software sales.

Look at the list of their best sellers. Evergreen monsters everywhere. Since combining home and portable strength in IP they have created their own ecosystem and are capable of being completely self sustainable.

 
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@Raccoon, I'm curious as to how you expect Apple to match Nintendo on third party software, let alone first party. The Apple we know could absolutely make a device that kills Nintendo's upcoming hardware CPU performance and perhaps on GPU performance even after DLSS (as they'd be expected to be several process generations ahead of Nintendo), but that same Apple would need several philosophical shifts when it comes to API and middleware strategy to actually make it easier to develop for - especially for games targeting PS5 and Xbox. I could totally see a future where Apple makes a more attractive device than the upcoming Switch, but the Switch is the one with all the games.

Don't get me wrong; unlike most here, I don't think an Apple gaming hybrid would be dead on arrival. But I feel the stars would need to align for it to topple the Switch ecosystem.
Yeah, having tossed the idea around for a couple hours I don't really believe in its success anymore. Video games are a difficult space to enter, and even if Apple has a lot of gaming customers through its other products, a dedicated venture would likely still go the way of the Pippin. Consider this my retraction of the idea
 
Yeah, having tossed the idea around for a couple hours I don't really believe in its success anymore. Video games are a difficult space to enter, and even if Apple has a lot of gaming customers through its other products, a dedicated venture would likely still go the way of the Pippin. Consider this my retraction of the idea
Something else I hadn't considered is that they might've left their relationship with Epic Games too damaged to secure Unreal Engine for their rumored new platform.

The more I think on it, the less hopeful I get for it too.
 


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