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Discussion Can Switch "survive" more 17 months?

Right now we're stuck in an ideological battle between the people who believe Nintendo's claims that the Switch will have a long lifespan and the people who think it's already halfway out the door. There is precedent to suggest the latter group is correct, unfortunately, but I and some others think that the long lifespan strategy will pan out. I do doubt it though, and coming on the internet where it often feels that most have rejected the idea in favor of leaks definitely makes me doubt it even more. All we can do is wait and see.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
Just a question, are you referring to rumors of a Switch 2 that replaces the Switch (but is possibly backwards compatible), or rumors of a Switch Pro, @Pokemaniac ?
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currently there are only rumors for the former, as the DLSS chip that has been leaked would have a different graphics architecture and would require special software considerations to make backwards compatibility possible, akin to backwards compatibility on PS5 and Xbox Series. The extent of the cross gen period is likely dependent on Nintendo and third parties' strategies
 
Pokemaniac said:
There was a report in 2019 that was obviously referring to the Mariko Switch.
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Didn't know the V2 switch had more power. Good to know there are always more excuses to be found.

One version will have enhanced features targeted at avid videogamers, although it won’t be as powerful as Sony Corp.’s PlayStation 4 Pro or Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox One X, according to parts suppliers and software developers for Nintendo who have access to a prototype of the machine.
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Nintendo’s suppliers and game developers have been talking with their investors about the new Switch machines for several months. People who have used the devices say they aren’t just similar-looking new versions with a higher or lower performance.
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www.wsj.com

Nintendo to Launch Two New Switch Models

Nintendo plans to launch two new versions of its Switch gaming console as early as this summer, as the company seeks to sustain sales momentum for the product going into a crucial third year.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
Kano said:
Didn't know the V2 switch had more power. Good to know there are always more excuses to be found.
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You know I'm always on your side about this kano but this is actually true and pretty well known. The V2 has better battery life because it's a more performant system clocked down; the batteries in the two devices are only nominally different iirc
 
Not only will it last that long, it will last even longer. I think a "Switch 2" won't release until 2024, and even after its release, the original Switch will still be supported by smaller first party software releases for several years. Famicom lasted until 1994, Super Famicom until 2000... DS had some first party releases after 3DS, and 3DS lasted until 2019! The original Switch has a long life ahead of it.
 
Raccoon said:
You know I'm always on your side about this kano but this is actually true and pretty well known. The V2 has better battery life because it's a more performant system clocked down; the batteries in the two devices are only nominally different iirc
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I meant actual processing power, like what the article claimed, since it draws comparison with PS4 Pro and One X lol.
I don't know the details of what goes in these revisions.
 
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Raccoon said:
currently there are only rumors for the former, as the DLSS chip that has been leaked would have a different graphics architecture and would require special software considerations to make backwards compatibility possible, akin to backwards compatibility on PS5 and Xbox Series. The extent of the cross gen period is likely dependent on Nintendo and third parties' strategies
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That would be disappointing if so to be honest. I mean, I'd love a more powerful Switch, but a Switch 2 releasing as soon as 2022 would just be ... ewww.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
Just a question, are you referring to rumors of a Switch 2 that replaces the Switch (but is possibly backwards compatible), or rumors of a Switch Pro, @Pokemaniac ?
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A lot of these rumors don't really draw a clear distinction between the two. They're mostly just framed as a more powerful Switch. Personally, had the overcloked Mariko scenario played out it would be the latter, and Dane is the former.
Raccoon said:
Right now we're stuck in an ideological battle between the people who believe Nintendo's claims that the Switch will have a long lifespan and the people who think it's already halfway out the door. There is precedent to suggest the latter group is correct, unfortunately, but I and some others think that the long lifespan strategy will pan out. I do doubt it though, and coming on the internet where it often feels that most have rejected the idea in favor of leaks definitely makes me doubt it even more. All we can do is wait and see.
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As I've said in this very thread, I don't think the current Switch is "halfway out the door". I just think it only has another year or so as the flagship device. Console cycles can extend past the successor system releasing, and Nintendo's most recent transition even has a pretty clear example of this happening with the 3DS.
Kano said:
Didn't know the V2 switch had more power. Good to know there are always more excuses to be found.


www.wsj.com

Nintendo to Launch Two New Switch Models

Nintendo plans to launch two new versions of its Switch gaming console as early as this summer, as the company seeks to sustain sales momentum for the product going into a crucial third year.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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It's not up for debate that the chip can be clocked higher than the one in the launch Switch, and it's quite possible and likely Nintendo experimented with doing so but ultimately decided against it.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
That would be disappointing if so to be honest. I mean, I'd love a more powerful Switch, but a Switch 2 releasing as soon as 2022 would just be ... ewww.
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Yeah, as an OLED owner I think it would be really gross too. As it stands the OLED model feels like admission of some key problems with the Switch hardware and rectifying them for a long life ahead, whereas with a replacement next year it feels like bilking idiot fans who will buy anything that comes in a red box.

One way to rectify a lot of the rumors with fact, including the delayed date of the more powerful hardware, the existence of the OLED model, and the rumor of "taping out" the chip being a problem is to assume the following timeline:

  • design starts for a more powerful hybrid Switch
  • new SOC demands more power than Nintendo is satisfied with
  • attempts are made to rectify but they aren't currently possible
  • OLED model is created to fill hybrid market
  • Dane releases next year as a relatively power-hungry TV only model

that doesn't align with every rumor but it's one speculative approach to events
 
Pokemaniac said:
As I've said in this very thread, I don't think the current Switch is "halfway out the door". I just think it only has another year or so as the flagship device. Console cycles can extend past the successor system releasing, and Nintendo's most recent transition even has a pretty clear example of this happening with the 3DS.
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Do you think that there will be a split base like the 3DS post-Switch period, i.e. there will be new first party Switch 1 games that aren't ported to the Switch 2?
 
Raccoon said:
currently there are only rumors for the former, as the DLSS chip that has been leaked would have a different graphics architecture and would require special software considerations to make backwards compatibility possible, akin to backwards compatibility on PS5 and Xbox Series. The extent of the cross gen period is likely dependent on Nintendo and third parties' strategies
Click to expand...
The rumors are for a piece of hardware using a chip code named Dane, which is capable of DLSS.

Whether that's a Switch 2 as you say or a Switch pro or a Switch pineapple is completely unknown, there is no suggestion either way.
 
I think Holiday 2023 at the earliest, more likely March 2024. Switch is still selling like crazy and next year's lineup is incredible (though that didn't stop them at the end of the Wii's life, I'd hope they learned from that)
 
Skittzo said:
The rumors are for a piece of hardware using a chip code named Dane, which is capable of DLSS.

Whether that's a Switch 2 as you say or a Switch pro or a Switch pineapple is completely unknown, there is no suggestion either way.
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I thought we had indication of software incompatibility. Was the idea that it uses a new graphics architecture made up? That wouldn't surprise me at this point tbh
 
Skittzo said:
The rumors are for a piece of hardware using a chip code named Dane, which is capable of DLSS.

Whether that's a Switch 2 as you say or a Switch pro or a Switch pineapple is completely unknown, there is no suggestion either way.
Click to expand...
The Nintendo Switch Dane

image.png
 
Raccoon said:
I thought we had indication of software incompatibility. Was the idea that it uses a new graphics architecture made up? That wouldn't surprise me at this point tbh
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New graphics architecture is definitely part of the rumor (either Ampere or Lovelace) but that does not suggest software incompatibility.
 
Pokemaniac said:
It's not up for debate that the chip can be clocked higher than the one in the launch Switch, and it's quite possible and likely Nintendo experimented with doing so but ultimately decided against it.
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It's always "quite possible" despite that it never actually happens and nothing actually indicates it's ever been the plan.

But this convo has run its course. There are never any evidence of anything yet people would like you to believe it's a certainty it's happening... as they did non-stop for the past two years.
 
Kano said:
It's always "quite possible" despite that it never actually happens and nothing actually indicates it's ever been the plan.

But this convo has run its course. There are never any evidence of anything yet people would like you to believe it's a certainty it's happening... as they did non-stop for the past two years.
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Zynga was named as a developer with access to devkits for a new Switch. That isn't evidence?
 
Kano said:
Same Zynga who then denied having received anything?



The insufferable pro speculation/discussions did it lol, nothing else.
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Did you think they would publicly confirm hardware they are under NDA for?

Of course they would publicly deny access with a carefully worded denial.

None of this is new. It's standard procedure for the industry.

11 development studios cited with access. I guess all are liars.
 
Skittzo said:
New graphics architecture is definitely part of the rumor (either Ampere or Lovelace) but that does not suggest software incompatibility.
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It totally does though? (EDIT: Or rather, I thought it did though?) They can work around it, but it is a clean break in terms of software compatibility due to the precompiled graphics code. It's a new platform with very different code. Even if nearly universal compatibility is applied, there will be a difference in compilation target between the Switch and Switch 2. A native Switch 2 game will be different software.
 
NateDrake said:
Did you think they would publicly confirm hardware they are under NDA for?

Of course they would publicly deny access with a carefully worded denial.

None of this is new. It's standard procedure for the industry.
Click to expand...

It is so easy lol, you can just say about anything and it can only be true because even a flat out denial is taken as "standard procedure". Literally impossible to deny the info. Even when the guy reporting it was wrong three times on the same subject before.

What if Zynga just doesn't have anything? How exactly were they supposed to answer in a way you'd accept it is indeed true?
 
AngryAlchemist said:
Just a question, are you referring to rumors of a Switch 2 that replaces the Switch (but is possibly backwards compatible), or rumors of a Switch Pro, @Pokemaniac ?
Click to expand...
the issue is there's only one set of hardware specs being speculated on. so the difference between a Pro and a 2 is pretty nonexistent unless you want to come up with a hypothetical pro spec
 
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The issue comes down to this: do you believe in companies, or do you believe in leaks?

Personally I only believe that one day we will all die and that when my time comes I would have wished that I gave my sister my old Switch a year sooner, so I bit the bullet and bought the OLED. And when Nintendo screws me, I'll think about the fun my sister had in that tough year and how much better the kickstand was on mine, and in bittersweet acceptance I will smile. I probably won't be able to afford the new one, but I'll smile anyway.
 
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Kano said:
It is so easy lol, you can just say about anything and it can only be true because even a flat out denial is taken as "standard procedure". Literally impossible to deny the info. Even when the guy reporting it was wrong three times on the same subject before.

What if Zynga just doesn't have anything? How exactly were they supposed to answer in a way you'd accept it is indeed true?
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You can doubt it all you want; but the reality is that developers started to get devkits for new Switch hardware in late 2020 and more studios got access around June of this year.

Digital Foundry has alluded to it, too. Devkits for new Switch hardware are in the hands of developers & have been for several months.
 
new question : So, it’s been pretty well established now that the switch can “survive” the next 17 months . But can the nintendo fan base ?
 
NateDrake said:
You can doubt it all you want; but the reality is that developers started to get devkits for new Switch hardware in late 2020 and more studios got access around June of this year.

Digital Foundry has alluded to it, too. Devkits for new Switch hardware are in the hands of developers & have been for several months.
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sure sure, looking forward to ampere NX and metroid prime trilogy as well

As I said, the convo has run its course, it always ends up the same way lol.
 
Raccoon said:
It totally does though? (EDIT: Or rather, I thought it did though?) They can work around it, but it is a clean break in terms of software compatibility due to the precompiled graphics code. It's a new platform with very different code. Even if nearly universal compatibility is applied, there will be a difference in compilation target between the Switch and Switch 2. A native Switch 2 game will be different software.
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It won't have "very different code" regardless, but none of that is relevant to the discussion of it being rumored to be a switch 2 versus something else.
 
Kano said:
sure sure, looking forward to ampere NX and metroid prime trilogy as well

As I said, the convo has run its course, it always ends up the same way lol.
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If you stayed informed on matters, the situation concerning Metroid Prime Trilogy was addressed a month ago.

A Remaster/Remake of Metroid Prime 1 is coming out next year. Developed by Retro.
 
NateDrake said:
If you stayed informed on matters, the situation concerning Metroid Prime Trilogy was addressed a month ago.

A Remaster/Remake of Metroid Prime 1 is coming out next year. Developed by Retro.
Click to expand...

I am very informed don't worry, I also remember the claims that MP Trilogy was nearly finished back at the TGA 2018 and Nintendo was sitting on it. Another "reality" I had to face I guess :).
 
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Skittzo said:
It won't have "very different code" regardless, but none of that is relevant to the discussion of it being rumored to be a switch 2 versus something else.
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I really just disagree. I think there is a fundamental software-oriented qualification for what constitutes a new platform. The Switch 2 will end up being a distinct software target from the Switch 1 due to the different graphics architecture and code. I'll concede that there are multiple approaches they can take to how they delineate the products, but I personally think rumors have moved past what I would consider a Pro.

I guess that means I'll expect either a Switch 2 or a Switch Pineapple.
 
Kano said:
sure sure, looking forward to ampere NX and metroid prime trilogy as well

As I said, the convo has run its course, it always ends up the same way lol.
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Well, I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to the reveal of Switch Pro prior to E3 2021, with the numerous third party exclusives for it to be revealed that E3!
 
Clov said:
Well, I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to the reveal of Switch Pro prior to E3 2021, with the numerous third party exclusives for it to be revealed that E3!
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Very excited for it as well. When you look at a gorgeous game like Mario + Rabbids 2, you immediately understand that those are visuals that could only be achieved on a superior system.

EDIT: i feel bad for @Guaraná's thread that has turned into something entirely different so I'll leave it at that, if any soul want to DM me to continue the convo be it but i doubt it'll be constructive at this point lol
 
NateDrake said:
If you stayed informed on matters, the situation concerning Metroid Prime Trilogy was addressed a month ago.

A Remaster/Remake of Metroid Prime 1 is coming out next year. Developed by Retro.
Click to expand...
Ramaster and remake are 2 pretty different things, can we be more precise on what it is?
 
garf02 said:
Ramaster and remake are 2 pretty different things, can we be more precise on what it is?
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Internally it is referred to as a remaster. The line between the two is often blurred. It's still Metroid Prime 1 but with substantial visual improvements.

Is Demon's Souls for PS5 a remake or remaster? Could argue both ways. It's not a Resident Evil 2 Remake situation. The more apt comparison is probably to Halo Anniversary.
 
Raccoon said:
I really just disagree. I think there is a fundamental software-oriented qualification for what constitutes a new platform. The Switch 2 will end up being a distinct software target from the Switch 1 due to the different graphics architecture and code. I'll concede that there are multiple approaches they can take to how they delineate the products, but I personally think rumors have moved past what I would consider a Pro.

I guess that means I'll expect either a Switch 2 or a Switch Pineapple.
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If your basis for calling it a "2" has always been graphics architecture then a Switch pro was never possible once Mariko released. Which is fine, if that was the consistent belief.
 
Skittzo said:
If your basis for calling it a "2" has always been graphics architecture then a Switch pro was never possible once Mariko released. Which is fine, if that was the consistent belief.
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Well candidly it wasn't consistent because I wasn't aware of how graphics architecture delineation works, and in many respects I'm still unclear.

For example, does the PS4 Pro share its "to the metal" code with PS4? I have the same question with the XBOX One family. I know that PS5 backwards compatibility has been achieved with software tricks due to different graphics architectures.

I guessI would consider a successor a platform that has fundamental differences in the way it interfaces with hardware, necessitating distinct software builds and resulting in a non-negligible distinction between "native" software for the different platforms.
 
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Guaraná said:
By this time the original Switch will already be 6 years old and the PS5 and XS will have over 2 years in the marketing with a robust library of games and some heavy hitters like Halo, Elden Ring, Horizon Forbidden, etc...
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Nintendo games will sell more games than Microsoft or Sony published games over the next two years.

Nintendo will sell more Switches than Microsoft sells Xboxes and Sony sells PlayStations over the next two years.

So…no. I’m not worried about anything
 
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Raccoon said:
Do you think that there will be a split base like the 3DS post-Switch period, i.e. there will be new first party Switch 1 games that aren't ported to the Switch 2?
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I think all Switch 1 software (aside from maybe a dozen or two exceptions with compatibility issues at most) will run on Switch 2, whether it was explicitly targeted or not. There may be some first party games that aren't natively ported, but it will be of little to no consequence to the end user who owns a Switch 2.
Raccoon said:
It totally does though? (EDIT: Or rather, I thought it did though?) They can work around it, but it is a clean break in terms of software compatibility due to the precompiled graphics code. It's a new platform with very different code. Even if nearly universal compatibility is applied, there will be a difference in compilation target between the Switch and Switch 2. A native Switch 2 game will be different software.
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"Cross-gen" titles will have to contain separate shader binaries, but, depending on how Nintendo sets things up, there's no reason games couldn't use the same main executable for everything. The CPU should be entirely binary compatible.
 
Skittzo said:
Also what do you mean by "survive" here? Their sales will probably drop but that has been the case for any and all 6 year old consoles. I certainly don't see a dropoff like the Wii though.
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Yes…sales by the end of this fiscal year in 2022 will be ~26 million and drop the following year to about ~21 million in sales ending fiscal year 2023.

In other words, this decline is still better than the best year of ps4 sales.
 
Onizuka said:
Rather it is the other way around.
PS5 barely manages to surpass Switch sales, only on rare occasions like this past September in the USA, probably due to the expectation of the OLED Switch by a large public. In fact, PS5, after 10 months on the market, already has a sales rate lower than that of Switch in its first 10 months on the market. I think PS5 can sell roughly 17 ~ 20 million between March 2021 and March 2022, while Switch will surely sell around 25 million between March 2021 and March 2022.
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You are forgetting the context that both of the new systems are heavily supply constrained. We don’t know how the PS5 would sell under normal conditions.
 
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Heron said:
Yes, definitely it can and will, and that's just given the first party software we know about and its current sales trajectory.

But the people saying a Switch 2 isn't needed until 2024 or 25 are out of their minds.

As you've said, March 2023 is the sweet spot. And if they miss that, Holiday 2023 won't be any big disaster either.
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A power upgrade Switch is needed by 2023

A “Switch successor” (Switch 2) isn’t needed till like 4 years after that
 
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I remember when gaming forums were saying in 2018 that the Switch “blew its wad” after Smash was released and it was for sure headed for a decline now that all the big hitters had been released…I can’t believe we are still having this discussion 3 years later on the eve of major model upgrades and a slate of big Nintendo titles still coming. Sheesh.
 
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The Switch will..."survive". No worries about that. And yeah, someone brought up how several past Nintendo systems witnessed rapid slowdowns when they reached a similar age. However, there are more than one way to reference historical context: tje main one is to look back at what happened in the past due to several factors to understand what might happen as a consequence of similar factors, while the other is to understand how different two scenarios driven by different factors can be to the point that such historical context...cannot be used to rightfully foresee what might happen in the future. At the moment Switch's case is obviously the latter.
 
Pokemaniac said:
I think all Switch 1 software (aside from maybe a dozen or two exceptions with compatibility issues at most) will run on Switch 2, whether it was explicitly targeted or not. There may be some first party games that aren't natively ported, but it will be of little to no consequence to the end user who owns a Switch 2.

"Cross-gen" titles will have to contain separate shader binaries, but, depending on how Nintendo sets things up, there's no reason games couldn't use the same main executable for everything. The CPU should be entirely binary compatible.
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Interesting, so a "native" Switch 2 game could be part of the files for a "native" Switch 1 game, but software with only files for Switch 1 will most likely have a system compatibility layer to handle it?
 
balgajo said:
I think that the Switch audience is different from Wii. A lot of people bought Wii to experiment with motion controls. Seeing the Nintendo Switch and the crazy software sales it's clear to me that people are buying it to play Nintendo games. So I believe if they keep the stream of good games on the last year they will be fine. Just for comparison:

Twilight Princess (Wii day one) - 7.53M
Breath of the Wild(Switch day one) - 23.20M

Mario Galaxy(Wii) - 12.80M
Mario Odyssey(Switch) - 21.40M

BOTW sold 3x compared to TP, the prior best seller
Odyssey is almost 2x Galaxy. Smash Bros is almost the same.

Nintendo Switch is a crazy software sale machine. I can't see it dying like Wii on the last year.
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I agree with your point, but I think the existence of Wii Sports rather muddies the Twilight Princess and BOTW comparison.

When I bought my Switch day one, I picked up BOTW almost by default, as there was nothing else high-profile to play.

Day one Wii owners outside Japan had Wii Sports to play immediately.
 
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