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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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NateDrake said:
They are backing the reasoning for not being at E3 -- which would mean they have heard similar that Nintendo is skipping on E3 due to a light second half lineup. They never said nor imply they have direct knowledge of the entire lineup.
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So it's just "we also heard this". That is not exactly what comes to mind with corroborating. Usually that is to confirm, validate, or support. As in additional evidence.

For all we know VGC and IGN are hearing things from the same source.
 
Serif said:
Much appreciated, feels like there's a layer of subjectivity here. I can't help but remember Age of Calamity's reveal and how there was zero hint of it prior. I know it's not a 'major' game in the breath of a big 3D Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon, but it's one instance of how secretive Nintendo can be.
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Sure, and right now I agree it's sensible to take all of these unconfirmed reports - whether that's about the software slate, hardware production, or E3 - with a pinch of salt. Out of all of it, Nintendo's non-participation in E3 is the one thing I can see definitely being true.

As for everything else, we don't have the full context yet and I'm not convinced anybody outside Nintendo does.
 
NateDrake said:
They are backing the reasoning for not being at E3 -- which would mean they have heard similar that Nintendo is skipping on E3 due to a light second half lineup. They never said nor imply they have direct knowledge of the entire lineup.
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I try desperately but we never know, ND the next week?
 
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Nintendo's 2023 lineup:
open-uri20150422-12561-ltu3um_ebf7f931.jpeg
 
mazi said:
grain of salt and all that

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FWIW the copies of Advance Wars could also come during day receiving from ups or fedex, so if this leaker works afternoon truck he wouldn't know that the copies already arrived.

Source: I used to do day receiving at walmart, a lot of Nintendo games came fedex/ups and the displays came on the trucks, so I find this story very believable.
 
Direct rumor roundup

Pretty much confirmed to be there:
  • The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (release date is coming in hot and preorders need to open)
  • Advance Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp (e-shop page got updated and preorders were reopened)
  • Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe (new epilogue got leaked from the back of the physical box art)
Probably:
  • Hollow Knight Silksong (release window is H1 2023 and the e-shop page was recently updated)
  • Zelda Lego Sets (recently leaked)
Maybe? Not rumors though:
  • Oxenfree 2: Lost Signals (both of the studios recent titles are on the Featured e-shop page)
  • New Mario movie trailer (we're due for another trailer any day now)
  • New Mario game (there's no Mario games announced for 2023)
 
The main positive of the current discussion is that a lot of the people that follow all this news stuff will go into the direct with expectations set by the previous 2-3 weeks of " No games, weak line up, light 2nd half", and will likely have their expectations met or exceeded.

The main negative will be the amount of pointless discussion post-direct about whether the second half of the year is indeed too "light", or whether the vague as hell phrasing from all these journalists actually accurately describes everyone's subjective viewpoint about the, likely still not fully revealed, 2H software line up. I seriously cannot wait to ignore all of those discussions.
 
DarkField said:
Hopefully we get a very diverse one, with little quantities of farm, this time 😄
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Well they (hopefully)got the farming sims out of the way, should be a better paced direct. Idk why it was pretty farm focused, but oh well there was Fire Emblem, Kirby, TOTK and a few other good announcements in there.
 
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If there's upcoming retail leaks I wanna see new TotK artwork 😭 come on at least someone fake one so I can feel something
 
Where did the whole, "Nintendo TOLD the ESA they weren't going due to having a light second half" come from? Everyone's been complaining about it all day, but was that actually reported, or are people just misinterpreting, "Nintendo isn't attending E3" and "Nintendo has a light second half" as one piece of information instead of the two separate reports they clearly are
 
I feel like there's a lot of getting hung up on semantics. All indicators from various sources or oulets is that they've heard Nintendo won't have anything as big as TOTK planned the second half of 2023. That doesn't really mean much, imo. TOTK is a big event, and few games can match that. For some, Pikmin 4 is a huge or even bigger deal, or Metroid Prime Remaster is, or another Musou based on Nintendo IP, or F-Zero GX DX or whatnot. It doesn't mean Nintendo has crumbs post-TOTK, it just means that they likely don't have 10 million+ system sellers, but those are by and large rare anyway.
 
BassForever said:
Source: I used to do day receiving at walmart, a lot of Nintendo games came fedex/ups and the displays came on the trucks, so I find this story very believable.
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Off topic: I miss the days of working receiving at grocery/retail stores. The amount of shit that people stole or hid for themselves was hilarious. There was always a blind spot in those stores where employees could hide stuff to pick up on their way off work.
 
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Me: Ok, after I finish Fire Emblem I'll take on a Paper Mario game and maybe Final Fantasy

(Nintendo shadow drops Advance Wars)

Me: Welp
 
Anyway, I've had a bountiful day shitposting and overanalysing the current batch of rumours. What fun will tomorrow bring?

hopefully a new distraction because on top of my usual health condition I am definitely coming down with an infection hoo yeah
 
Wanna bet Advance Wars will be dumped out before the Direct and just after the financial report so that Nintendo can entirely avoid talking about it in any capacity?

Feb 7 - Financial report
Feb 7/8/9 - AW announcement
Feb 10 - AW release
Feb 14/15 - Nintendo Direct
 
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Gamer_G said:
Where did the whole, "Nintendo TOLD the ESA they weren't going due to having a light second half" come from? Everyone's been complaining about it all day, but was that actually reported, or are people just misinterpreting, "Nintendo isn't attending E3" and "Nintendo has a light second half" as one piece of information instead of the two separate reports they clearly are
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It came from IGN and VGC.

Well not that Nintendo "told the ESA," but IGN's article states:
"VGC has since reported that Nintendo opted not to take part in the event due to a light second half release schedule not justifying the event space — information that IGN can corroborate.

So it's not two separate pieces of reporting. VGC said "Nintendo not going" and "due to a light H2" in the same report. And then IGN said they can corroborate it. So as far as your question of where this narrative came from of Nintendo not E3ing due to a light H2, it came from that.
 
Skies said:
So it's just "we also heard this". That is not exactly what comes to mind with corroborating. Usually that is to confirm, validate, or support. As in additional evidence.

For all we know VGC and IGN are hearing things from the same source.
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This whole thing reminds me of Jason Schrier describing how the Star Fox Grand Prix rumors got swirled around. It was "we can corroborate this" through sources that wound up being each other, or other internet rumors. "A" heard it from "B", "B" heard it from "C", "C" heard it from "A" type nonsense.

That Walmart thing, as easily as someone can pull it out of their ass, is honestly pretty likely. I've suspected for a little while that it'll be shadow-dropped.
 
MisterSpo said:
Anyway, I've had a bountiful day shitposting and overanalysing the current batch of rumours. What fun will tomorrow bring?

hopefully a new distraction because on top of my usual health condition I am definitely coming down with an infection hoo yeah
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Sorry to hear that. I've been refreshing and reading through Famiboards all day to distract me from work.

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Maybe we'll get more confirmation of the Advance Wars Walmart "leak" by tomorrow?
 
There's no way Nintendo told ESA they're not participating due to a light second half.

Also they didn't participate last year and the second half was amazing. Don't know why people are worried. Also I think this year we are going to have several high profile third party ports, which will help.
 
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Gamer_G said:
Where did the whole, "Nintendo TOLD the ESA they weren't going due to having a light second half" come from? Everyone's been complaining about it all day, but was that actually reported, or are people just misinterpreting, "Nintendo isn't attending E3" and "Nintendo has a light second half" as one piece of information instead of the two separate reports they clearly are
Click to expand...

It came from an IGN article. IGN stated that VGC reported Nintendo is not attending E3 because of a reportedly light schedule for the second half of 2023. Which IGN then corroborated.

I side with Kit as in Nintendo would never say that out loud to an external party.

So I'm thinking a source that has inside knowledge about a portion of Nintendo software is making what would have to be an educated assumption, and telling it to a bunch of insiders.

But even with that knowledge, I don't understand how you can confidently say something so broad and subjective as near fact, unless you 100% knew the full contents of the 2023 lineup. Which Nate is saying they most likely don't. Or that they never insinuated that they knew the full lineup. Which just makes my head spin.
 
lexony said:
Please let all of this mean that Nintendo does this year a Nintendo Live like Event in the US paired with a direct.
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I'm not going so far as to say I think we have any likely explanations, but something along the lines of another event is a possible one, and would fit with Kit saying he has a hunch we'll find out the whole story sooner rather than later. If he's right, then the reason is something public-facing which we're likely to hear about (and nothing to do with the release schedule) -- so there aren't a ton of different things that could be.
 
Did anyone even read the article VGC made? They wrote that they got knowledge of Nintendo skipping E3 because of their sources, not that ESA was telling them. Though I don‘t believe that we have the full picture here. I don‘t really buy that they have nothing to show in directs after TOTK.
 
My impression is that someone, either the source or IGN, heard "Nintendo won't be at E3" and "Nintendo's spent on major releases after Zelda" as two separate things and spun them as related information. Either or both things could be true, but there's no cause-and-effect relation.
 
Serif said:
Much appreciated, feels like there's a layer of subjectivity here. I can't help but remember Age of Calamity's reveal and how there was zero hint of it prior. I know it's not a 'major' game in the breath of a big 3D Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon, but it's one instance of how secretive Nintendo can be.
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It was subjective I guess. He(Chris Dring) added that just because there were no "major" releases that it didn't mean there no releases altogether. Someone commented about Metroid Prime 4, Mario and Donkey Kong and he said they have them but not this year. On a side note he seemed to believe Pikmin 4 was actually coming this year but by no means was he saying for sure. He just didn't lump that in with the other 3.

So again. There are going to be games. I don't think there is anything to worry about there but the rumored DK game and speculated Mario game(s) are seemingly not on the docket for this year.

To be honest Andy's contribution and everything after that muddied the conversation a bit. Dring was pretty forward with the reasoning behind his comment, which again proves just how blown out of proportion this has been lmao.
 
lexony said:
Did anyone even read the article VGC made? They wrote that they got knowledge of Nintendo skipping E3 because of their sources, not that ESA was telling them. Though I don‘t believe that we have the full picture here. I don‘t really buy that they have nothing to show in directs after TOTK.
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I really need to add that the article says "because it feels it has fewer major releases than usual." It does not say they have "nothing" to show.
 
Apopheniac said:
My impression is that someone, either the source or IGN, heard "Nintendo won't be at E3" and "Nintendo's spent on major releases after Zelda" as two separate things and spun them as related information. Either or both things could be true, but there's no cause-and-effect relation.
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I think we can see in real time how some information that likely was shared through a lot of people gets mixed with other information, a bit rumors and a good portion of subjective guessing and then gets sold to the public as "inside information".

Not that the outlets in questions are in the wrong, there seems a lot of smoke, but how the whole thing is presented to us right now you could basically say that we really know nothing.
 
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chocolate_supra said:
And that's just from the section where yall discuss gaming youtubers 😉
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I'll just quote Scrooge 1970 for that section:

"Scavengers and sycophants and flatterers and fools
Pharisees and parasites and hypocrites and ghouls
Calculating swindlers, prevaricating frauds
Perpetrating evil as they roam the earth in hordes
Feeding on their fellow men
Reaping rich rewards
Contaminating everything they see"
 
lexony said:
Did anyone even read the article VGC made? They wrote that they got knowledge of Nintendo skipping E3 because of their sources, not that ESA was telling them. Though I don‘t believe that we have the full picture here. I don‘t really buy that they have nothing to show in directs after TOTK.
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This distinction doesn't make sense -- they didn't get it from what ESA was officially "telling them," but that doesn't mean their sources weren't from ESA/ReedPop.
 
Paxie said:
idk what YouTuber you're talking about, this rumor started with the owner of gameindustry.biz. Given that Emily has talked an oncoming deluge of legacy rereleases, it's clear they're reaching into their back catalogue to fill out the rest of this year
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I personally think that is a good thing, the legacy rereleases and reaching into their back catalogue.

Hopefully that means that they will port Yoshi Woolly World!!! And lots of old/other games, that a lot of people never had a chance to play or experience, will get new/more fans, and a new longevity.
 
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lexony said:
I think we can see here in real time how some information that likely was shared through a lot of people gets mixed with other information, a bit rumors and a good portion of subjective guessing and then gets sold to the public as "inside information".
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I 100% agree.

And as you pointed out, the VGC article is misquoted by IGN.

VGC

According to VGC’s publishing sources with knowledge of Nintendo’s plans, the company has decided to skip E3 2023 –the event’s first physical show in four years – because it feels it has fewer major releases than usual ready to show and which would justify significant event space.
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IGN

VGC has since reported that Nintendo opted not to take part in the event due to a light second half release schedule not justifying the event space — information that IGN can corroborate.
Click to expand...
 
NateDrake said:
I'll just quote Scrooge 1970 for that section:

"Scavengers and sycophants and flatterers and fools
Pharisees and parasites and hypocrites and ghouls
Calculating swindlers, prevaricating frauds
Perpetrating evil as they roam the earth in hordes
Feeding on their fellow men
Reaping rich rewards
Contaminating everything they see"
Click to expand...
AwEcBbM.gif
 
LiC said:
This distinction doesn't make sense -- they didn't get it from what ESA was officially "telling them," but that doesn't mean their sources weren't from ESA/ReedPop.
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I think they would had said something like sources close to ESA instead of Nintendo. But who knows. I don‘t really know how this stuff works and who in which position would be even ready to spill such information.
 
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