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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Serif said:
"Nintendo is one of the most secretive companies in the world, do you really think they're out here telling the ESA or literally anybody that they have a weak schedule of games?"

Preach, Kit.
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I mean... that's not how leaks work. Leaks by their very nature aren't Nintendo's intended message to the public.
 
kimbo99 said:
I don't think any of the big 3 would openly admit they would skip a game show due to lack of content. Heck, Microsoft said they knew they didn't have much to show for TGA but still showed up.
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The only way they would do that is by slashing their forecast projections and the media having to put 2 + 2 together. Which is the complete opposite of what they are doing. They wouldn’t be announcing they were ramping up switch production if they didn’t have software that they had every reason to believe would push hardware sales
 
quelseydilla said:
Feomt06WIAAYDoS-9143.jpg

The arm
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The poses
 
Dmax3901 said:
I mean... that's not how leaks work. Leaks by their very nature aren't Nintendo's intended message to the public.
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What Kit says is correct. Because if IGN and VGC believe they can cite the release schedule as Nintendo's reason for skipping E3, that can only mean the source of that information is connected to E3. But Nintendo would never disclose that reasoning to anyone at ESA/ReedPop, so it could not leak from them. And no one else could know that reasoning except the actual Nintendo executives who made the decision, who are not leaking it either.
 
Soul Skater said:
The only way they would do that is by slashing their forecast projections and the media having to put 2 + 2 together. Which is the complete opposite of what they are doing. They wouldn’t be announcing they were ramping up switch production if they didn’t have software that they had every reason to believe would push hardware sales
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To be fair, this hasn't happened yet. It's just one of the 'reports'/rumours we've had in the last few weeks that all seem a little muddled.
 
Lets not forget that Nintendo showed up to E3 in 2016 with literally one game.

And that game didn't even launch until 2017!
 
Next week would be mighty interesting if it's both fiscal briefing and a Direct. If Bloomberg are right and Nintendo are now back on track for 21 million this fiscal year, we'll find out,* and if there's a Direct, we'll have a clearer picture of the software schedule.

That being said, a February Direct might not even end up being all that conclusive. Maybe Nintendo still do a summer presentation but they don't stick to E3 timing.

*this wouldn't prove Nintendo are upping Switch production for the next fiscal year, but it'd add a little more credence to the idea
 
Considering how many surprise games get revealed that even the most well-informed insiders/leakers didn't know about, I don't put much consideration into IGN or whatever press outlet suggesting "we know their entire sechedule and it's a desert after TOTK". Especially since to western outlets in particular, anything less than Zelda isn't a heavy-hitter :p

Personally I will be more than happy for those "non-heavy hitter/sub 10 million selling" IPs to get more focus. Gimme F-Zero, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Wario Land, Donkey Kong, Chibi Robo, Golden Sun, Mother, etc. I want to see more revivals like Advance Wars, Mario Strikers and such. Lately it's been feeling like Nintendo hyperfocues on the same half-dozen IP every year or two, and I welcome more diversity in the lineup. A full course meal is nice but snacking is good too.
 
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Dmax3901 said:
I mean... that's not how leaks work. Leaks by their very nature aren't Nintendo's intended message to the public.
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Sure.

But to confidently say that Nintendo has a "weak" lineup for the second half of 2023, that would mean that either all of Nintendo's plan for 2023 are already known, or Nintendo straight up told someone that their second half lineup up was lacking.

Kit is saying the latter doesn't happen, period. And regarding the former, Kit is reinforcing that Nintendo is one of the most secretive companies in the world. Meaning, the chances that everything has already leaked is highly unlikely.

Therefore, the statement in question warrants major, heavy-hitting doubt.
 
LiC said:
What Kit says is correct. Because if IGN and VGC believe they can cite the release schedule as Nintendo's reason for skipping E3, that can only mean the source of that information is connected to E3. But Nintendo would never disclose that reasoning to anyone at ESA/ReedPop, so it could not leak from them. And no one else could know that reasoning except the actual Nintendo executives who made the decision, who are not leaking it either.
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Nintendo is one of the biggest patronizers of E3 and the ESA in general, to the point they seemingly cancel Directs if E3 doesn't happen. If they decided to suddenly skip and gave no reason, not only would it be really out of character but it would also hurt ESA and Nintendo's relations. What really matters is how caked up in executive jargon their reasoning was, since that could easily be the source of misunderstandings
 
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Don't think anyone will ever get a satisfactory answer regarding the weight of Nintendo's back half of the year, but I do think the Jan 39th Direct could give a hint towards solving "is there a June Direct." If we're seeing a decent amount of summer and fall titles there, it could indicate that the next Direct is September

Would be funny if they showed off Shin Super Mario Bros. for a holiday release, though. Major L for both the June Direct and the Light Back Half narrative
 
Miraj said:
Considering how many surprise games get revealed that even the most well-informed insiders/leakers didn't know about, I don't put much consideration into IGN or whatever press outlet suggesting "we know their entire sechedule and it's a desert after TOTK". Especially since to western outlets in particular, anything less than Zelda isn't a heavy-hitter :p

Personally I will be more than happy for those "non-heavy hitter/sub 10k selling" IPs to get more focus. Gimme F-Zero, Star Fox, Metroid Prime, Wario Land, Donkey Kong, Chibi Robo, Golden Sun, Mother, etc. I want to see more revivals like Advance Wars, Mario Strikers and such. Lately it's been feeling like Nintendo hyperfocues on the same half-dozen IP every year or two, and I welcome more diversity in the lineup. A full course meal is nice but snacking is good too.
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No one has said these outlets know the entirety of the second half lineup. Where are these narrative stemming from? No report has indicated as such.
 
NateDrake said:
"Light" doesn't mean "weak" or any other descriptor you wish to replace it with.
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But it's also vague. If it's referring to the number of games, last year was already the lowest number of Nintendo releases on Switch bar 2017, but I don't think people would call the 2022 slate light. People would more readily call 2020 and 2021 'light', but those had more releases than 2022 (and I do understand why that might be called 'light').

Personally, my expectations for a while have been that we'll see lower budget titles like spin-offs and re-releases as well as the DLCs, but that Nintendo would still find something with a lot of mainstream appeal for later in 2023.
Apopheniac said:
Don't think anyone will ever get a satisfactory answer regarding the weight of Nintendo's back half of the year, but I do think the Jan 39th Direct could give a hint towards solving "is there a June Direct." If we're seeing a decent amount of summer and fall titles there, it could indicate that the next Direct is September

Would be funny if they showed off Shin Super Mario Bros. for a holiday release, though. Major L for both the June Direct and the Light Back Half narrative
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This is true. There's also naturally going to be a lot of debate over what constitutes a 'light' slate, because subjective appeal is going to come into it (and that's why I'm disputing it; what games journalists see as light might be more appealing to the audience buying into Switch right now, for example). If there's like, 2 games for 2023 after Zelda, then yeah, that's pretty damn light.

That or Nintendiets really is the big 2023 title after Zelda.
 
Josh5890 said:
Light = Palutenna, the Goddess of Light

OMG we've cracked it! Kid Icarus is coming back!
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And it must also be a reference to the return of the Light Suit from Metroid Prime 2 Echoes because Nintendo SAW THE LIGHT and decided to put Prime Trilogy on the Switch!!!

I feel much better about everything.
 
Joe said:
If 2023 is going to be a light year, then either:

a.) there wouldn't be a Direct in February

or

b.) the February Direct is going to be extremely underwhelming
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I mean Feb direct will have TOTK so it’ll be fine. That’s gonna carry Nintendo’s first half. It’s June onward that’s worrying
 
Mr_No_U said:
That's why I say Low Fat or Low Calorie
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Low calorie second half because of all the new meals Nintendo put in Tears of the Kingdom

Omg

That and there's a new Style Savvy later this year so Nintendo wanted to be sure everybody could fit into their clothes

nailed it
 
NateDrake said:
No one has said these outlets know the entirety of the second half lineup. Where are these narrative stemming from? No report has indicated as such.
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I'm suggesting that I don't think these outlets know everything, and people shouldn't doom and gloom over reports like this. Nintendo surprises people a lot, and I really doubt that IGN, VGC or whoever knows much about their plans even if they got a scoop.

And even if their lineup is "light" or "sparse" to the press, to me that suggests more possibility of lesser-seen IP getting a chance, not that they have barely anything post-TOTK.
 
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Another thing to consider: pre-pandemic, Nintendo never skipped a single E3, and believe me when I say they had some years that were light on software.
 
I've already lost track of what the original rumor was, if it was some 'argument from silence' i.e. we haven't heard anything yet, therefore we infer x, or if there was a source that explicitly said 'light lineup'. That and the subjectivity around the word 'light' without a frame of reference comparing it to a previous Switch year leaves me a bit confused.
 
LiC said:
What Kit says is correct. Because if IGN and VGC believe they can cite the release schedule as Nintendo's reason for skipping E3, that can only mean the source of that information is connected to E3. But Nintendo would never disclose that reasoning to anyone at ESA/ReedPop, so it could not leak from them. And no one else could know that reasoning except the actual Nintendo executives who made the decision, who are not leaking it either.
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VGC says their source is someone with knowledge of Nintendo's publication plans, so not necessarily someone from ESA or ReedPop. But also, VGC specifically says that their source suggests that Nintendo has no major releases that would justify having a physical presence. This isn't at all saying they have a 'weak' lineup, just not one with heavy hitters that would be ready to market heavily in June.

Skies said:
Sure.

But to confidently say that Nintendo has a "weak" lineup for the second half of 2023, that would mean that either all of Nintendo's plan for 2023 are already known, or Nintendo straight up told someone that their second half lineup up was lacking.

Kit is saying the latter doesn't happen, period. And regarding the former, Kit is reinforcing that Nintendo is one of the most secretive companies in the world. Meaning, the chances that everything has already leaked is highly unlikely.

Therefore, the statement in question warrants major, heavy-hitting doubt.
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I'm at work so I apologise if Kit mentions this in their video, but who has confidently said weak lineup? IGN's ReedPop source speculates: "I'm not sure it will have many games to show this year, so it makes sense to skip." which is hardly a definitive statement about... anything really. "Not many" doesn't mean anything if one of the "not many games" is a new 3D Mario or Donkey Kong or something.

VGC's source meanwhile claims Nintendo is skipping E3 "because it feels it has fewer major releases than usual ready to show and which would justify significant event space."

Neither of these claims read like they're confidently claiming anything to me.

I think I'm on the same page as both of you, my issue is with framing this news as "IGN and VGC's sources are wrong/should be doubted" rather than using critical thinking and media literacy to consider what this information actually indicates about Nintendo's plans. They don't have an anti-Nintendo agenda that needs to be deconstructed and ridiculed (not saying either of you are doing that, but I have seen it), they're just reporting what they've been told which at the end of the day, isn't much.
 
NateDrake said:
No one has said these outlets know the entirety of the second half lineup. Where are these narrative stemming from? No report has indicated as such.
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From IGN:

VGC has since reported that Nintendo opted not to take part in the event due to a light second half release schedule not justifying the event space — information that IGN can corroborate.
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How can you corroborate that a second half release schedule is light if you don't know the contents of said lineup?
 
Again there is just way too much attention being paid to these stories. The direct needs to get here and take over the mind space of nintendo fans lmao.
Serif said:
I've already lost track of what the original rumor was, if it was some 'argument from silence' i.e. we haven't heard anything yet, therefore we infer x, or if there was a source that explicitly said 'light lineup'. That and the subjectivity around the word 'light' without a frame of reference comparing it to a previous Switch year leaves me a bit confused.
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The original report was that Dring heard Nintendo doesn't have a "significant game for quite some time" after Zelda
420 Cludge Gang said:
I don't see how a second half of 2023 could be "weak" if it includes Pikmin 4.
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I mean Pikmin is one of the weaker Nintendo IPs. As someone who loves the series I can admit that haha
 
Serif said:
I've already lost track of what the original rumor was, if it was some 'argument from silence' i.e. we haven't heard anything yet, therefore we infer x, or if there was a source that explicitly said 'light lineup'. That and the subjectivity around the word 'light' without a frame of reference comparing it to a previous Switch year leaves me a bit confused.
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There've been a slight mess of tweets and reports based on that before this E3 stuff broke today.

Andy Robinson, for example, said he expected Zelda was Nintendo's last major Switch title. Chris Dring went so far as to say (on Twitter) that "there isn't one" in reference to Nintendo's post-Zelda line up. Today IGN reported Nintendo won't attend E3; VGC then reported this was because Nintendo didn't have enough games to justify attending; IGN then updated their report to corroborate that and say Nintendo have a light second half 2023.

So there's smoke, for sure, but little clarity over what it means. I'd also question why (according to Bloomberg's report) Nintendo would be upping Switch production and targeting 21 million units shipped again in the 2023-24 fiscal year if they had a light software slate. Maybe a price cut or budget model is planned, but a price cut plus a light software slate is one way to eat into your potential profit.

So yeah. It's a tangle. It wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo lean on old content and lower budget games this year, at all, but I'd still expect there to be regular and varied releases.
 
mazi said:
grain of salt and all that

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Absolutely typical that Advance Wars would get dropped when I'm partway through 2 games and have 2 more to start and have Octopath 2 preordered

I could wait and not buy it, but where's the fun in that?
 
NateDrake said:
No one has said these outlets know the entirety of the second half lineup. Where are these narrative stemming from? No report has indicated as such.
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How would the outlets be able to confidently comment on how light or dense the H2 lineup is if they don't know the H2 lineup, though..?

It seems to me that them saying it's light indicates they know the lineup.
 
"Light" can mean multiple things.
Light in number of games, Light in amount of huge system sellers, etc.

We already know of DLC still planned or possible to release this year (MK8 Booster Course, Xenoblade 3 Story DLC, Pokemon DLC, FE Engage DLC, etc.). Those combined a 2023 schedule of FE Engage in Jan, Kirby in Feb, Bayonetta Origins in March, Zelda TOTK in May and Pikmin 4 planned for sometime in 2023. If Xenoblade 3 releases Story DLC the same level of Xenoblade 2 Torna with a standalone release, and we have the rumored games like the Mario Sluggers game, Metroid Prime Remake, Pikmin 4 hitting its 2023 release, etc. that could fill out the rest of the year with Pokemon DLC and FE Engage DLC and other titles like if Advanced Wars 1+2 makes it in.

Not a huge list of arguable system seller type games besides TOTK, but a list that is pretty decent for the rest of the year.
 
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How possible is it that Nintendo announce new hardware for 2024, a budget Switch model launching this year (edit: or a price cut), and that Zelda: TotK is a cross-gen title?

For the sake of conjecture, this is not all in a Direct either. Hardware related info could be dealt with prior, cross-gen info later once they've gone into more detail about new hardware (e.g. in September)
 
No, you see, "light" games are actually referring to how bright these games are in terms of luminescence.

Electroplankton making a comeback in 2023, who had that on their bingo cards?
 
Skies said:
From IGN:



How can you corroborate that a second half release schedule is light if you don't know the contents of said lineup?
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They are backing the reasoning for not being at E3 -- which would mean they have heard similar that Nintendo is skipping on E3 due to a light second half lineup. They never said nor imply they have direct knowledge of the entire lineup.
 
daiquiri said:
How possible is it that Nintendo announce new hardware for 2024, a budget Switch model launching this year (edit: or a price cut), and that Zelda: TotK is a cross-gen title?

For the sake of conjecture, this is not all in a direct either. Hardware related info could be dealt with prior
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Zelda won't be cross-gen, it's coming out in three months. It would just get ported to the next system.
 
Style Savvy would be perfect for an E3 booth because it could be a series of cat walks.

I call bullshit on Nintendo not having a game worth building an E3 booth around. What they don't have is enough faith in Style Savvy.

idk if Style Savvy is this year and I don't play Style Savvy but I am going to will it into existence via shitposts because I predicted it would come to Switch
 
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Cubs017 said:
I mean, that happens sometimes. 2022 was regarded as a pretty great year, I think. I got both Pokemon games, Kirby...and that was pretty much it from Nintendo for me. Switch Sports? Three Hopes? Mario Strikers? Xenoblade? Splatoon? Bayonetta? Those were all major releases...and none of them really appealed to me.

Nintendo generally appeals to as wide of an audience as they can, but sometimes it's not for you.
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I feel like you kinda ignored my point here. It's not a question of taste - I'll play any game from Nintendo so long as it's new.

I just have no interest in replaying games. I don't have the time.

And since I play every Nintendo game, all of their remasters will, by definition, be old games to me. So they don't even register for me as releases.
 
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Hocot8 said:
The original report was that Dring heard Nintendo doesn't have a "significant game for quite some time" after Zelda
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MisterSpo said:
There've been a slight mess of tweets and reports based on that before this E3 stuff broke today.
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Much appreciated, feels like there's a layer of subjectivity here. I can't help but remember Age of Calamity's reveal and how there was zero hint of it prior. I know it's not a 'major' game in the breath of a big 3D Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon, but it's one instance of how secretive Nintendo can be.
 
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