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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Plum said:
For me a 2D Mario game makes a lot more sense to be a Year 1 addition to the next console. If you ignore Wii U owners (which, despite being one, you probably should) then the Switch has a mainline 2D Mario, Mario Maker, and a stage-based 3D Mario. I've got no doubt a 2D Mario would sell on the Switch, but I think Nintendo would want to establish the next one as an evergreen title for their next console - something that can't happen if one gets released this year on Switch.
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I mean, Nintendo has to have something major after Zelda. They won't hold everything back. Something has to give. 2D Mario is the most likely candidate.
 
Plum said:
For me a 2D Mario game makes a lot more sense to be a Year 1 addition to the next console. If you ignore Wii U owners (which, despite being one, you probably should) then the Switch has a mainline 2D Mario, Mario Maker, and a stage-based 3D Mario. I've got no doubt a 2D Mario would sell on the Switch, but I think Nintendo would want to establish the next one as an evergreen title for their next console - something that can't happen if one gets released this year on Switch.
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And what about the 2D DK then
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I feel like if you told people in 2011 that the 3D Mario game on Nintendo's future console would outsell the 2D Mario by more than 2:1, they would be very surprised.
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I believe a big reason for that is the existence of Mario Maker 2. I feel it pulls away attention from NSMBUD. The two combined have sold over 20 million copies on Switch, and the new style of levels are by far the most popular in MM1-2.

My point ultimately is despite gamer narratives, there's no actual evidence that the New style of Mario has fallen out of favor with the masses. Odyssey being a break out hit for a new, 3D Mario does not diminish how a level creator and a port have done. I don't see people lamenting how 3DW+BF hasn't sold Odyssey numbers. I'd also say 3D All Stars but since Nintendo artificially limited it goes out the window for comparisons
 
Apopheniac said:
Super Mario Maker released on Wii U in 2015. The sequel is about as straightforward as it gets: what if we added more to the thing we just did. Most of the HD assets already existed because they're standard Mario stuff. SMM2 released in 2019, four years later.

Four years to pivot from Mario Making to Mario Made is not unreasonable but strikes me as optimistic.
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You are forgetting that EPD10 also worked on Super Mario Run and iirc the Maker port for 3DS along with NST that year. And there is about 120 actual levels in the story mode in Maker 2 so it isn't really that much straightforward as it seems to be. COVID hit Nintendo hard but I think Holiday 2023 for 2D Mario isn't that unlikely.
 
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I do wonder if we're going to see Nintendo launch games which they then re-advertise for new hardware. Like let's say 2D Mario is out this year on Switch, but what kind of presence can Nintendo give it at some point in 2024 to sell for a new system?

We don't know yet how easy - or difficult - Nintendo might make it to buy digital Switch games on a new system, for example. It'd be ideal for Nintendo's love of shifting Old Stuff if they could continue to sell the Switch library through new hardware. Despite me thinking (and Nintendo signalling) we'll see backwards compatibility, account continuation and cross-gen software, we really don't know yet how that's going to work.
 
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LukasManak22 said:
Don't want to flex but, me back in October:

image.png
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2023-02-01-0r2-Kleki.png
 
ZaWams said:
Very reliable, and usually makes it clear when he is certain, or speculating or if he isn’t 100% on something.

He did get Metroid Prime coming out last Holiday wrong, but checked with his sources multiple times and they kept telling him it would release. He shaved his head since he got it wrong. He takes accountability if he misses on a leak
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Thanks for this!
LESS THAN 6 DAYS GUUUUYS
 
Magic-Man said:
I mean, Nintendo has to have something major after Zelda. They won't hold everything back. Something has to give. 2D Mario is the most likely candidate.
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It might still happen, but I don't see it being guaranteed just because the timing makes some sense development-wise. Honestly, right now I think much of the 'expectation' for a 2D Mario is being driven less by whether people genuinely think it's an inevitability, but by the desire to prove games journalists wrong with their whole "no major games," comment, and I don't think that's a great basis for decent speculation.

LukasManak22 said:
And what about the 2D DK then
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I mean, I don't know lol. Was only commenting on a 2D Mario there.
 
I think what’s often forgotten is that Nintendo could revisit some games with the Switch successor. With TOTK and whatever comes after that, I could see them rereleasing those games with more content on Switch 2. They’re not gonna have Wii U Ports after all, and in hindsight, those really carried Nintendo throughout years like 2018. Between “higher Switch sales this year” and the strange “no big games after TOTK”, I think this is a possibility: some bigger games that will get re-released in 2024/25 with more content, updated graphics etc. Dev times get longer and longer, and Nintendo will adapt to that.
 
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Let's say that Zelda is the last major game of this year (10+m seller) and Switch 2 is Spring 2024. The rest of the lineup could look something like this.

June- Mario Sports (Please be baseball), Splatoon 3 DLC
July- Pokémon S/V DLC, Pikmin 4
August- F-Zero GX HD
September- Star Fox, GB/GBC NSO library
October- Metroid Prime 1 HD
November- Mario Party Superstars 2 (let me believe), Pokémon S/V DLC
December- Advance Wars: Reboot Camp

Ok, so Mario Party is probably close to 10m, but this would all be really solid for the second half.
 
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Plum said:
It might still happen, but I don't see it being guaranteed just because the timing makes some sense development-wise. Honestly, right now I think much of the 'expectation' for a 2D Mario is being driven less by whether people genuinely think it's an inevitability, but by the desire to prove games journalists wrong with their whole "no major games," comment, and I don't think that's a great basis for decent speculation.


I mean, I don't know lol. Was only commenting on a 2D Mario there.
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IMO, 2D Mario makes the most sense this year because of the movie and the fact that we currently don't have any Mario games announced for this year. There's always at least two Mario games in any given year (if not more). What current options do we have? 3D Mario is probably being saved for the next system, Mario Kart is still getting DLC, it's too early for another Paper Mario or Mario Party, and Strikers/Golf/Tennis already have games on Switch. 2D Mario and another game (Baseball?) make the most sense.
 
I could see Nintendo doing a 2D Mario this year and around the launch of the new system they could do a release with more content. Kind of like how we got New Super Mario Bros U and then New Super Luigi Bros U.

I'm hesitant though since I consider 2D Mario a major release and if there is no "major release" after Zelda, I can't see Mario being on the 2023 calendar.
 
BassForever said:
I believe a big reason for that is the existence of Mario Maker 2. I feel it pulls away attention from NSMBUD. The two combined have sold over 20 million copies on Switch, and the new style of levels are by far the most popular in MM1-2.

My point ultimately is despite gamer narratives, there's no actual evidence that the New style of Mario has fallen out of favor with the masses. Odyssey being a break out hit for a new, 3D Mario does not diminish how a level creator and a port have done. I don't see people lamenting how 3DW+BF hasn't sold Odyssey numbers. I'd also say 3D All Stars but since Nintendo artificially limited it goes out the window for comparisons
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I mean, the issue here is that basically all major Nintendo franchises saw extreme and explosive growth on Switch except...

So I'm pretty sure Nintendo is rebooting the 2D Mario franchise in terms of presentation and play style in some ways.
 
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Time for Nintendo to make their own Madden with black jack and hookers, Mario's Gridiron Football is finally gonna happen.
 
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Josh5890 said:
I could see Nintendo doing a 2D Mario this year and around the launch of the new system they could do a release with more content. Kind of like how we got New Super Mario Bros U and then New Super Luigi Bros U.

I'm hesitant though since I consider 2D Mario a major release and if there is no "major release" after Zelda, I can't see Mario being on the 2023 calendar.
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There's not NO major releases, just less of them.
 
Josh5890 said:
Let's say that Zelda is the last major game of this year (10+m seller) and Switch 2 is Spring 2024. The rest of the lineup could look something like this.

June- Mario Sports (Please be baseball), Splatoon 3 DLC
July- Pokémon S/V DLC, Advance Wars: Reboot Camp
August- F-Zero GX HD
September- Star Fox, GB/GBC NSO library
October- Metroid Prime 1 HD
November- Mario Party Superstars 2 (let me believe), Pokémon S/V DLC
December- Everybody's 1,2 Switch

Ok, so Mario Party is probably close to 10m, but this would all be really solid for the second half.
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Pikmin 4 still exists though...at least for now
 
I don't personally expect Nintendo to rerelease any of their Switch titles on a sucessor.. Heck, I feel waiting for any kind of enhancements through backwards, is already not a given;

Expect basic 3DS to DS/Wii U to Wii compatibility
 
HD Mario Parties have been triannual so I'd expect the next one in 2024. Maybe we could see Clubhouse Games 2: Revenge of the Worldwide Classics
 
You have 7 months to fill up after TotK.

One of them will be Detective Pikachu 2.
Two of them could be Prime 1 Remake (if Prime 4 is late 2024 or sooner) and Pikmin 4 (if it isn't delayed to 2024)
Then you can probably fill in the other four with various outsourced titles and the big DLCs for Pokemon and Xenoblade

Nintendo had months where Torna and Pokemon Sword/Shield DLC were the big releases of this month so this all seems plausible.

But would still expect a 2D Mario as well.
 
What's the definition of a major game? Is it something that appeals to the core gaming audience? Something that Nintendo fans would love? Something that sells 5 million copies? 10 million copies? Doesn't matter. It's a vague enough term that I can change the definition whenever I feel like it to fit the narrative I'm pushing or make my reporting correct.
 
Josh5890 said:
Its funny that I remember a few years back, we talked about how TP and WW would be perfect end of life releases for the Switch.

The problem is TotK is due in May so it makes no sense to drop two Zelda ports only six months later.
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Could make for a good launch package though, if on launch day we got Switch 2, new 3D Mario and either WW HD or TP HD (Possibly even both in a double pack) that would be great. Either that or at least launch window timed.
 
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HockeyBird said:
What's the definition of a major game? Is it something that appeals to the core gaming audience? Something that Nintendo fans would love? Something that sells 5 million copies? 10 million copies? Doesn't matter. It's a vague enough term that I can change the definition whenever I feel like it to fit the narrative I'm pushing or make my reporting correct.
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This is an issue, yeah. Almost regardless of the software, or whatever audiences Nintendo try to reach this year, this narrative is going to stick.
 
CyberWolfJV said:
I don't personally expect Nintendo to rerelease any of their Switch titles on a sucessor.. Heck, I feel waiting for any kind of enhancements through backwards, is already not a given;

Expect basic 3DS to DS/Wii U to Wii compatibility
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I agree with what you're saying to some extent, but backwards compatibility and the infrastructure to support it is now a little more complex because of the unified Nintendo Accounts, which didn't exist at the DS/Wii transition.

For proper, modern backwards compatibility, Nintendo need to give people access to those games, so there needs to be a means to access digital purchases. Plus, will people be able to access Switch software through the eShop on their new hardware? That's how Nintendo could keep selling major titles from 2023 like Zelda and a hypothetical 2D Mario on new hardware, as well as the usual tried and tested method of people buying a cartridge and it working in the new system.
 
I will don't understand why Nintendo didn't give us the option to remove that gray sides when we're playing NSO games, and why not give us a filter ir something for Snes this time like they did with GBA in the Wii U VC
 
Magic-Man said:
IMO, 2D Mario makes the most sense this year because of the movie and the fact that we currently don't have any Mario games announced for this year. There's always at least two Mario games in any given year (if not more). What current options do we have? 3D Mario is probably being saved for the next system, Mario Kart is still getting DLC, it's too early for another Paper Mario or Mario Party, and Strikers/Golf/Tennis already have games on Switch. 2D Mario and another game (Baseball?) make the most sense.
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Perhaps, but I don't think it's right to expect a 2D Mario game simply because a year 'must' have 2 Mario titles. It could easily go to a Paper Mario remaster, or a weird experimental thing like MK: Live, or a new Mario vs. Donkey Kong, or a Mario 'Universe' title like Wario Land; there's still a bunch more options before we get to a 'Top 3' Mario series like a mainline 2D Mario. Or it might not even happen at all; Mario isn't guaranteed simply because he's such a common character. Hell, last year only saw a single Nintendo-developed Mario game, with the other being a fully Ubisoft-led production.

I just don't think that 2D Mario "making sense," means it's guaranteed, or something to use to automatically disqualify the "quiet H2," rumour. If it happens then great, I've been wanting one of those for a long while, but I've just not seen enough to expect it.
 
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MisterSpo said:
This is an issue, yeah. Almost regardless of the software, or whatever audiences Nintendo try to reach this year, this narrative is going to stick.
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Are we going to see articles of the caliber of "another damn Donkey Kong game" again? Even if.. you know, it's been so long since the last game, and this hypothetical game has the potential to be just as big as a new Mario game?

Because I will say.. I'm pretty tired...
 
The idea that keeps popping into my head for the next Mario game is a combo/integrated 2D/3D experience, where 2D sections/levels are even more seamlessly incorporated compared to Odyssey, while also being Bowser's Fury style open world. The reason is that both Super Nintendo World and the Super Mario Movie feature similar images of an adventure to the top of those 3D World style mountains (with the castle on top for the movie). I feel like they are enjoying that imagery that would want the next game to mirror and expand on it. You'd do smaller Bowser's Fury-esque challenges in the overworld, and then have larger 2D and/or 3D levels/worlds inside pipes/rooms/etc like Odyssey did. That's my dream at least.
 
I don't know if there will really be a debate about "major" if Nintendo releases

An original Mario platformer
Metroid Prime 4 (that either gets a >93 on Metacritic or sells 10m copies)
A new Mario Party
A new Pokemon RPG

Those are all major.

Meanwhile, most remakes or remasters Nintendo could release would be pretty not major.

An EPD 8 DKC or Yoshi game? That could be more borderline (unless they get like a 92+, lol). As are Pikmin 4 and as would be a new Paper Mario game.
 
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