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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Maronic03 said:
For example, how many people would have considered Luigi's Mansion 3 as "major" before it actually came out/was announced.

Because it absolutely is now when you look at its sales.
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I believe the metric thrown around is 10+ Million seller too; which 2D Mario does in the launch week, at very least.. and I doubt a fresh new Donkey Kong game would struggle to reach even;
 
Captain Falcon said:
I’ll be honest, if all I got was the following games this year, I’d be ecstatic:

  • Tears of the Kingdom
  • Pikmin 4
  • 2D Mario or DK (holiday title)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered
  • F-Zero GX Remastered
And that seems very reasonable if not likely. Nintendo will have some title of significance to anchor the holiday this year and it won’t be an Ultra Smash type game given the size of the install base.
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Agree. That looks really great, and doesn’t even include DLC for S/V and other games.
 
Nintendo having a light second half of the year isn't a contentious idea per se; knowing what their dev cycles look like, if you know a big new EPD8 game isn't quite ready yet or is being saved for new hardware, there just aren't any internal teams that could reasonably have a blockbuster release lined up.

EPD3 will have just dropped TotK, EPD4 just wrapped up Switch Sports and seems to be grappling with stinky horse, EPD5 is still working on Splatoon 3 updates, EPD9 is working on the BCP, EPD10 is on Pikmin 4 (not a blockbuster). Monolith Soft is doing Xenoblade 3's expansion and the action game is presumably a ways away, Retro will put out Prime 4 some time in 2024 if we're lucky, Next Level Games just put out Mario Strikers, HAL is putting out RtDLDX in spring, Game Freak is doing SV DLC, Int Sys just put out FE Engage. Maybe Nd Cube or Grezzo has something big, or someone else is gearing up a big exclusive, but neither strikes me as likely.

I don't think it's controversial to say that they're probably right about Nintendo's post-Zelda year being relatively quiet. Most of the rumored stuff floating around is Grand and Illustrious Old Shit. The hogs on this forum will devour the slop, but it ain't gonna make waves.

The part that doesn't pass the sniff test is that Nintendo would skip E3 because of this and would inform E3 organizers that this is the case. Even if Nintendo is skipping E3, why tell anyone that it's because your release schedule is weak? Even if their release schedule is weak, why would that be sufficient grounds to skip E3?
 
Captain Falcon said:
I’ll be honest, if all I got was the following games this year, I’d be ecstatic:

  • Tears of the Kingdom
  • Pikmin 4
  • 2D Mario or DK (holiday title)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered
  • F-Zero GX Remastered
And that seems very reasonable if not likely. Nintendo will have some title of significance to anchor the holiday this year and it won’t be an Ultra Smash type game given the size of the install base.
Click to expand...

I can't wait to hear the discussion around how 2D Mario and/or Donkey Kong is not a heavy hitter or "major" title.
 
Apopheniac said:
Nintendo having a light second half of the year isn't a contentious idea per se; knowing what their dev cycles look like, if you know a big new EPD8 game isn't quite ready yet or is being saved for new hardware, there just aren't any internal teams that could reasonably have a blockbuster release lined up.

EPD3 will have just dropped TotK, EPD4 just wrapped up Switch Sports and seems to be grappling with stinky horse, EPD5 is still working on Splatoon 3 updates, EPD9 is working on the BCP, EPD10 is on Pikmin 4 (not a blockbuster). Monolith Soft is doing Xenoblade 3's expansion and the action game is presumably a ways away, Retro will put out Prime 4 some time in 2024 if we're lucky, Next Level Games just put out Mario Strikers, HAL is putting out RtDLDX in spring, Game Freak is doing SV DLC, Int Sys just put out FE Engage. Maybe Nd Cube or Grezzo has something big, or someone else is gearing up a big exclusive, but neither strikes me as likely.

I don't think it's controversial to say that they're probably right about Nintendo's post-Zelda year being relatively quiet. Most of the rumored stuff floating around is Grand and Illustrious Old Shit. The hogs on this forum will devour the slop, but it ain't gonna make waves.

The part that doesn't pass the sniff test is that Nintendo would skip E3 because of this and would inform E3 organizers that this is the case. Even if Nintendo is skipping E3, why tell anyone that it's because your release schedule is weak? Even if their release schedule is weak, why would that be sufficient grounds to skip E3?
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It's bold to assume that everything EPD9 is working is BCP. The next Mario Kart ia already in a full production.

EPD10 is not only working on a Pikmin 4 but also a 2D action game since 2019 (confirmed via hiring.) I would be very suprised if 2D Mario missed 2023.
 
I didn't even wake up for the possibility of a 9am announcement today, that's how much I trust Grubb with this stuff. Next week also lines up with Nate's timing recording Nintendo predictions this week.
 
Nintendo could very likely have a fairly stacked second half of 2023 by the metric of hardcore nerds that post on sites like this and would lose their shit at a direct that where Nintendo's biggest announcements were

A New Rhythm Heaven
A Kid Icarus Uprising HD port/remaster
A Metroid Prime 1 remake
A F-Zero GX remaster
A new Golden Sun
Super Mario RPG coming to NSO
GB/GBC/GBA coming to NSO with localized Mother 3 at launch

The above would have people freaking out calling it one of Nintendo's best directs during the Switch era.
 
Going from "We shouldn't listen to IGN because they're just assuming things and likely don't know anything," to "IGN are silly because they don't think the 2D Mario game that is definitely happening this year is a heavy hitter," is a strange train of thought imo.
 
LukasManak22 said:
It's bold to assume that everything EPD9 is working is BCP. The next Mario Kart ia already in a full production.
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Do you think the next Mario Kart will release this year?
LukasManak22 said:
EPD10 is not only working on a Pikmin 4 but also a 2D action game since 2019 (confirmed via hiring.) I would be very suprised if 2D Mario missed 2023.
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Does EPD10 have the capacity to put both out within a few months of each other? I would assume they need to move staff off Pikmin 4 this year to finish it for next year at the earliest.
 
If there really is mainly remasters for the second half and pokemon DLC, then im not happy with that. (i don't belive in that)
Then i have OT2, Silksong and TotK in the first half...and nothing in the second.

Thats not a diss against pikmin. I liked pikmin 3, was a great game on the Wii U. but if they are not expanding it much, and the scope/size is comparable, then i dont see it being a 60 launch release for me.
I did not replay pikmin, the gameplay was really fun, but not enough to compensate for the other elements being fine but not catching me, and the narative was not profound/hooked me. i have no recollection of the OST.

That does not mean that it was not masterfully created. I have found a cheap copy of P3 for switch and bought it, even if i have it on wii u.
Its just really not tickling my fancy in that specific kinda way.
It looked stunning back then, but i honestly don't think that P4 will wow me with its graphics on the current switch.
 
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Apopheniac said:
Do you think the next Mario Kart will release this year?

Does EPD10 have the capacity to put both out within a few months of each other? I would assume they need to move staff off Pikmin 4 this year to finish it for next year at the earliest.
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Of course new Mario Kart will not release this year, why it would release on this Switch. It's a next gen title, most likely launch window title. People think that BCP is taken most of EPD9 resources but I don't think that's true. It's not working like they are stuck on these tracks for a while, we don't know when each wave is finished. It's obvious that after EPD9 leads were done with Tour in 2019 they begun working on next Mario Kart in some capacity.

EPD10 has this capacity, they actually did it quite a few times in a WIi U era. And it's not like the staff is mainly the same. Pikmin has different people than Mario 2D has and even with it there are people from other EPD groups assigned.
 
Apopheniac said:
Do you think the next Mario Kart will release this year?
Does EPD10 have the capacity to put both out within a few months of each other? I would assume they need to move staff off Pikmin 4 this year to finish it for next year at the earliest.
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Epd10 is nothing more than just producers and creative leads. All Nintendo does is flex the art/designers/programmers where needed. So yes, they can put out 2 games in a year.
 
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Apopheniac said:
Nintendo having a light second half of the year isn't a contentious idea per se; knowing what their dev cycles look like, if you know a big new EPD8 game isn't quite ready yet or is being saved for new hardware, there just aren't any internal teams that could reasonably have a blockbuster release lined up.

EPD3 will have just dropped TotK, EPD4 just wrapped up Switch Sports and seems to be grappling with stinky horse, EPD5 is still working on Splatoon 3 updates, EPD9 is working on the BCP, EPD10 is on Pikmin 4 (not a blockbuster). Monolith Soft is doing Xenoblade 3's expansion and the action game is presumably a ways away, Retro will put out Prime 4 some time in 2024 if we're lucky, Next Level Games just put out Mario Strikers, HAL is putting out RtDLDX in spring, Game Freak is doing SV DLC, Int Sys just put out FE Engage. Maybe Nd Cube or Grezzo has something big, or someone else is gearing up a big exclusive, but neither strikes me as likely.

I don't think it's controversial to say that they're probably right about Nintendo's post-Zelda year being relatively quiet. Most of the rumored stuff floating around is Grand and Illustrious Old Shit. The hogs on this forum will devour the slop, but it ain't gonna make waves.

The part that doesn't pass the sniff test is that Nintendo would skip E3 because of this and would inform E3 organizers that this is the case. Even if Nintendo is skipping E3, why tell anyone that it's because your release schedule is weak? Even if their release schedule is weak, why would that be sufficient grounds to skip E3?
Click to expand...
I think the point for me here is that a narrative has set in very rapidly without much to substantiate it, and also that - judging Switch as a whole - it's not unusual at all for Nintendo to lean on old stuff to get through particular periods. There's also a danger that, as usual, the label for Big Meaningful Game is only applied to Big Budget Single Player games. If 2D Mario comes along, is that not a major release? NdCube have two 10 million plus selling titles on Switch; even if it's multiplayer focused and targeting a family market, is a new title from them not a major release? It might not be, because there's no guarantee it's a new Mario Party and could be a budget priced release - I guess I think I'm saying we should be wary of the way particular values and tastes and subjective judgements inflect narratives like this. If the criteria for 'big game' is 'comparable to Tears of the Kingdom' then well, Nintendo rarely ever launch games as significant as that.

I do think they'll aim to have notable titles for the simple fact that, post Zelda, there's still 10 months of the next fiscal year, plus the hugely important holiday season, for Nintendo to get through. Switch is 95% of their revenue stream and there is no reason for Nintendo to either create the impression they're struggling to get software out (which can damage engagement and might damage their reputation as a publisher ahead of new hardware) nor is there clear reason for Nintendo to let the revenue stream decline more rapidly than it could by going light on releases.

All that being said: my expectation for a while was that we'd see more spin offs, re-releases and DLC this year. But I also won't be surprised if Nintendo have one or two big guns to fire after Zelda later into 2023.
 
If a super cheap Switch model is coming, I wonder when it would be announced and released 👀
 
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Derachi said:
I don’t mean to flex but, me back in November:
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Don't want to flex but, me back in October:

image.png
 
Plum said:
Going from "We shouldn't listen to IGN because they're just assuming things and likely don't know anything," to "IGN are silly because they don't think the 2D Mario game that is definitely happening this year is a heavy hitter," is a strange train of thought imo.
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IGN said the following:

Nintendo opted not to take part in the event due to a light second half release schedule not justifying the event space — information that IGN can corroborate.
Click to expand...

"Light second half of 2023" versus "there are no more major Nintendo games left for Switch after ToTK".

What IGN said could be correct with 2D Mario still coming, for a number of different reasons. For example, Nintendo could simply feel like only having 2D Mario and ports this holiday is not significant enough to have space at E3. Or maybe it's early 2024.

There is also this from Bloomberg:

Nintendo Co. plans to increase production of its six-year-old Switch console in the coming fiscal year after shipping roughly 21 million Switch consoles in the year ending March, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Which completely flies in the face of the whole nothing left for Switch angle. So yes, I am extremely skeptical. Just like I was of the Switch Pro is coming narrative from last year.
 
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LukasManak22 said:
Of course new Mario Kart will not release this year, why it would release on this Switch. It's a next gen title, most likely launch window title. People think that BCP is taken most of EPD9 resources but I don't think that's true. It's not working like they are stuck on these tracks for a while, we don't know when each wave is finished. It's obvious that after EPD9 leads were done with Tour in 2019 they begun working on next Mario Kart in some capacity.
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Great, so you agree with me that EPD9 is unlikely to have a new release beyond the BCP this year.
LukasManak22 said:
EPD10 has this capacity, they actually did it quite a few times in a WIi U era. And it's not like the staff is mainly the same. Pikmin has different people than Mario 2D has and even with it there are people from other EPD groups assigned.
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Maybe it's doable, though the previous instances were with either portable releases that could be done on a smaller scale or DLC/rereleases. Even if it is, there's nothing pointing to a 2023 release beyond the length of time since the hiring, which isn't an exact science; we've had hirings from prior to that which have still yet to bear fruit.
 
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Plum said:
Going from "We shouldn't listen to IGN because they're just assuming things and likely don't know anything," to "IGN are silly because they don't think the 2D Mario game that is definitely happening this year is a heavy hitter," is a strange train of thought imo.
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I agree
My position is

It's silly to think that Nintendo would avoid E3 presence admitting they have a light lineup, as was silly to think Nintendo asked the dev kits back for the supposed to be Pro

Both insider news have big logical leaps in the understanding of the company processes
 
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The big issue with 2D Mario is not the staff levels (A game this big can easily find staff if more is needed), but more that we don't know how the prototyping etc has gone.

This game probably won't be another NSMB as people got sick of that series. It probably won't be a new Mario Maker as 2 sold less than Nintendo was probably expecting. So it will be a new style most likely and Nintendo is probably super cautious in making sure the new style is good as most publishers are super cautious about their biggest IPs.

Once Nintendo is happy with the concept behind the game and the prototyping goes well, the game will probably launch 2-3 years after. When that has (or will?) occur is unknown.
 
Its funny that I remember a few years back, we talked about how TP and WW would be perfect end of life releases for the Switch.

The problem is TotK is due in May so it makes no sense to drop two Zelda ports only six months later.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue with 2D Mario is not the staff levels (A game this big can easily find staff if more is needed), but more that we don't know how the prototyping etc has gone.

This game probably won't be another NSMB as people got sick of that series. It probably won't be a new Mario Maker as 2 sold less than Nintendo was probably expecting. So it will be a new style most likely and Nintendo is probably super cautious in making sure the new style is good as most publishers are super cautious about their biggest IPs.
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New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe sold over 10 million copies on Switch, in what world is that a sign that people got sick of the NSMB style? That's a major release right there :p
 
The team who does Battle Course Pass is for sure not that big. I imagine that there is a dedicated implementation team of let‘s say 5 people (excluding the music) who do those courses. The bug fixes or adding new features like the item selection is likely done by a different technical/dev team, that are more aware of the source code I‘d say.
 
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I wake up on this great 1st day of February, the direct month, and see the forum has come unglued. I think the Count from Sesame Street would even hate the “9” page lol
 
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Josh5890 said:
Its funny that I remember a few years back, we talked about how TP and WW would be perfect end of life releases for the Switch.

The problem is TotK is due in May so it makes no sense to drop two Zelda ports only six months later.
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Sure, but 'end of life' for Switch likely means 2024 through 2027. Perfect time for Nintendo to push out cross-generation titles that haven't made the jump from Wii U: Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Yoshi's Woolly World, NES Remix. It'd be very easy for Nintendo to support a new system and the Switch with software like that.

I'd also guess remasters from other systems are fair game; especially stuff from GC, Wii and 3DS. 3DS's 2017 through 2019 is a good example of what Nintendo might aim for, when 3DS saw Famicom, GB, and GBA remakes as well as Wii U and GC ports (and even a couple of 'cross-gen' 3DS/Switch releases, now I think about it).
 
Super Mario Maker released on Wii U in 2015. The sequel is about as straightforward as it gets: what if we added more to the thing we just did. Most of the HD assets already existed because they're standard Mario stuff. SMM2 released in 2019, four years later.

Four years to pivot from Mario Making to Mario Made is not unreasonable but strikes me as optimistic.
 
Nintendo has on average since 2017 announced 16 games a year, as high as 19 and as low as 11 - releasing the majorit within a year and many the very same year. So while there's probably a game or 2 that's releasing the first half of the year it's more than likely we're going to see a few dropping in H2 or later.

Winter direct (Jan mini/Feb)
22 - 5 games
21 - 7 games
20 - N/A
19 - 5 games
18 - 4 games

Also, I cant believe they made a sound effect for Bokoblin picking it's nose in BotW. That's wild.
 
MisterSpo said:
Sure, but 'end of life' for Switch likely means 2024 through 2027. Perfect time for Nintendo to push out cross-generation titles that haven't made the jump from Wii U: Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Yoshi's Woolly World, NES Remix. It'd be very easy for Nintendo to support a new system and the Switch with software like that.

I'd also guess remasters from other systems are fair game; especially stuff from GC, Wii and 3DS. 3DS's 2017 through 2019 is a good example of what Nintendo might aim for, when 3DS saw Famicom, GB, and GBA remakes as well as Wii U and GC ports.
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Totally fair. This is going to be the first time in the US since the SNES/N64 where there isn't a clean break in first party support for a Nintendo console. Cross gen ports like you mentioned will be a thing, along with a few new games.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I feel like if you told people in 2011 that the 3D Mario game on Nintendo's future console would outsell the 2D Mario by more than 2:1, they would be very surprised.
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Not sure it’s a good idea to use 2011 as an example since gaming has changed so
Much in a decade. Nintendo broke so many personal records for franchises and series.
 
For me a 2D Mario game makes a lot more sense to be a Year 1 addition to the next console. If you ignore Wii U owners (which, despite being one, you probably should) then the Switch has a mainline 2D Mario, Mario Maker, and a stage-based 3D Mario. I've got no doubt a 2D Mario would sell on the Switch, but I think Nintendo would want to establish the next one as an evergreen title for their next console - something that can't happen if one gets released this year on Switch.
 
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