When is the next Nintendo Direct gonna be
In this post I will try to explain to you why and when I think the next Nintendo Direct is gonna be.
Note: This is only my opinion, you are allowed to have your own. It’s called discussion.
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Let’s start with analysing every single week.
Monday
January 30th to
Friday February 3rd.
Every single first year‘s General Direct in the Switch era happened
after Nintendo released their nine months earnings:
Earnings released on
Janaury 31st 2018 – General Direct happened on
March 8th 2018
(you can argue that there was a Mini Direct on January 11th, before the earnings but it was just a Mini and full of ports and Aces, it was not a full General Presentation).
Earnings released on
January 31st 2019 – General Direct happened on
February 13th 2019.
Earnings released on
February 1st 2021 – General Direct happened on
February 17th 2021.
Earnings released on
February 3rd 2022 – General Direct happened on
February 9th 2022.
This year earnings are releasing on
February 7th 2023 – General Direct
will happen after that date.
So we can safely write off the first week from
Jan 30th to February 3rd.
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Let’s go with the second week,
February 6th to
February 10th.
As said above, it will be after the earnings
so after February 7th. We have then left a
February 8th and
9th but more on that later.
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We are now in the third week,
February 13th to
February 17th.
Some might say that the third week is perfect one, but I don’t think so. Here’s why:
Splatoon 3 new season theory, while good on paper it
does not proove much anything.
Splatoon 3 Chill season was announced on November 14th and released 17 days later.
The fact that we only have this one Splatoon pattern to go to
can’t give us many details. If Direct would be on this date it will be roughly 14 days from new season announcement to release but as said, we have only one pattern to go from so scratching this too.
What we however have on that week is
Super Nintendo World opening in Hollywood on
Friday, February 17th. Yes, I know they might don’t care but I could see them promoting heavily that their US version of theme park will open 2-3 days from now rather than doing Direct on that time. But again this is only for the US but that’s still one of their biggest market so.
There is also a
Octopath Traveler 2 demo that will surely get announced and released in this Direct. Doing a demo just a one week before this game releases seems weird, they always had the bigger gaps between them.
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4th week of February from
February 20th to
24th.
Not only is this late as hell, since Zelda is releasing in mid May but it’s also a week of Kirby and Octopath (I know, they are not publishing it this time but the fact that it was revealed first by them gives you a good idea that they will promote it).
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With all this said, there is only one possible date of a Direct.
Second week, after earnings on February 7th.
But it’s gonna be Wednesday 8th or Thursday 9th?
That’s why we have to bring the dates to the table.
April 12th 2017 - Wednesday
September 13th 2017 - Wednesday
March 8th 2018 - Thursday
September 13th 2018 - Thursday
February 13th 2019 - Wednesday
September 4th 2019 - Wednesday
February 17th 2021 - Wednesday
September 23th 2021 - Thursday
February 9th 2022 - Wednesday
September 13th 2022 – Tuesday
From 10 Directs during the Switch era,
6 of them were on Wednesday. You know why it is Wednesday in the US most of the time? Because the
global data traffic is one of the biggest on Wednesdays. The US market has the biggest viewership, that’s why it was Wednesday most of the time.
Yes, the last one was on Tuesday but that was because it was only last possible date after release of Splatoon and also before the start of TGS.
As you can see every February Direct always happened on Wednesday so I don’t see why it would be changed now.
Announcement on
February 7th 23:00 JST for a Direct on
Wednesday 8th US, 23:00 CET Europe and morning of February 9th JP.
But you said it will be announced after the earnings!
Yes, earnings are releasing in around 8AM CET on February 7th while the Direct will be announced 7 hours from that.
Or they will announce it on Wednesday 8th for a Direct on Thursday 9th. I don’t know.
There is also the fact that each Direct after the earnings was done week or more after that. But I don’t know, the Octopath demo just week before the game seems weird. And also does the Super Nintendo World Opening in that week.
The conclusion to the story is that I don’t fucking now. I really don’t. It will be second or third week. Nohing else. Make your own assumptions.
Just kidding.
The fact that they waited till 3rd week of February (17th) 2021 was just because it was after release of 3D World + Bowser’s Fury.
It’s the second week. Either 8th or 9th.
Thank you and goodbye.