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There's a 100% chance of a TotK direct happening, and looking at the history of game specific directs all but Splatoon 2 was roughly 1 month ahead of launch:
Arms
Xeno 2
Smash
Mario Maker 2
Animal Crossing
Xeno 3
Splatoon 3
Splatoon 2 had 2 of them, 2 months and 3 weeks or so ahead of launch.
Going by this, the week after Mario Movie launches would make sense - but who knows, TotK is a massive game both in importance and definitely in scope so who knows. I do think marketing ramps up post Kirby though.
I also have a galaxy brain theory that we might see a Mario direct late march - Promoting movie, add a weird june mario sport game, some NSO mario stuff and absolute a minor tease for a Mario game coming holiday 2023. But clearly, that's just me - a fan - thinking and hoping it makes sense when it's not gonna happen lol :>
Arms
Xeno 2
Smash
Mario Maker 2
Animal Crossing
Xeno 3
Splatoon 3
Splatoon 2 had 2 of them, 2 months and 3 weeks or so ahead of launch.
Going by this, the week after Mario Movie launches would make sense - but who knows, TotK is a massive game both in importance and definitely in scope so who knows. I do think marketing ramps up post Kirby though.
I also have a galaxy brain theory that we might see a Mario direct late march - Promoting movie, add a weird june mario sport game, some NSO mario stuff and absolute a minor tease for a Mario game coming holiday 2023. But clearly, that's just me - a fan - thinking and hoping it makes sense when it's not gonna happen lol :>