I’m not very knowledgeable about the whole hardware situation, but if I can chime in, I think one of the main reasons people are looking to next year (or early 2023) for new hardware is that:
A) People are still expecting a hardware upgrade, but an iterative one ala New3DS (even if it’s a much bigger jump than that)
B) People think the base Switch will only keep getting games for around 8 years, so… say 2025
C) Therefore, if there’s an iterative model, it kind of has to be coming in 2022-2023, because otherwise it feels way too late. Why release an upgraded model in 2024 if the true successor is coming in (extending it even a little bit) 2026? That’s way too close together.
So at least to me, off the top of my head and without much evidence or knowledge, it feels like if the new hardware doesn’t come within the next year or so then it probably isn’t coming at all, and Nintendo will just wait it out and release the full-on successor instead.
But I’m not dooming about it or anything, I just find it interesting to think about. Mostly I just want a DLSS Switch as fast as we can get one, lol