I'd say that Fire Emblem game is a safe bet for the Q1 Direct, especially if it lands somewhere in H1. They've gotta lay out that H1 first-party lineup quick, because after Legends Arceus in January nothing is dated; at least as far as NCL are concerned. They aren't publishing Triangle Strategy in Japan and Advance Wars isn't announced there period; neither are included on the 2022 software slide from results briefing presentation earlier in the month:
For the record, Nintendo grouping in Kirby with Pokemon as an "early" 2022 title here just strengths my belief in it launching in March or April; it won't be May. The order they list the 2022 titles in is absolutely going to end up being the release order too, book it.
Hard to really make a call on anything else, rumored or not. Even the Casual Stinker Sequel being teased by Emily wouldn't necessarily be a Direct announcement depending on what it is; could go the way of Labo, Ring Fit, Game Builder and Brain Training / Academy.
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