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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

When is the next general full-length Direct?

  • June

    Votes: 130 38.0%
  • July

    Votes: 40 11.7%
  • August

    Votes: 15 4.4%
  • September

    Votes: 129 37.7%
  • October

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • November

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • December

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • January

    Votes: 13 3.8%
  • February

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Never

    Votes: 11 3.2%

  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
I want to believe that some Pikmin superfan is just dropping Grubb vague hints that something is coming in July

because that would be hilarious
 
Man why did I have to sleep? I'm late but I'm totally here for Team June's resurgence. Not that there was ever any doubt.
 
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tbh kinda weird that some of our usual sources are saying June, but Grubb seemed pretty keen on July. I wonder if it’s two different things? Like what if this month is a Partner showcase but next month is, dare I say it… new hardware?
Grubb's been off or late on Direct info before, iirc
 
tbh kinda weird that some of our usual sources are saying June, but Grubb seemed pretty keen on July. I wonder if it’s two different things? Like what if this month is a Partner showcase but next month is, dare I say it… new hardware?

Insane to me that Nintendo is so secretive about everything. Grubb leaked the PlayStation Showcase all the way back in February and he nailed the date. The possibility of him conflating an event as underwhelming as a Partner Showcase with a Hardware Showcase is crazy because I could actually see it
 
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Part of the issue for people squaring rumours and leaks with what Nintendo will actually do is how easily contentious ideas become accepted.

"Nintendo pull out of E3 because they don't have games ready" was accepted very readily, for example, despite the fact that Nintendo would clearly never admit software problems (if they exist) to an external marketing agency. Equally, "Nintendo tells investors no hardware this year" was accepted despite the official transcript for the Q&A coming nowhere near that concrete a comment. Both of those statements and ideas are easily contested and the latter was outright incorrect reporting.

If you've accepted what's been pushed since last November - that Nintendo didn't have the games for E3, that they don't have anything 'significant' after Zelda - then maybe, even when you hear a Nintendo event is being put together, you don't think it can happen in June; because that seems to be the idea a lot of the press have settled on (take even Nintendo Life, for example, broadly seeing no need for a June Direct).
 
I've taken a pretty hands-off approach to this thread partially due to the stress of my new job but also in the interest of not asphyxiating natural discussions with my own attempts to drive the thread. However, I think that now is a good time to start our first discussion prompt, which I think aligns well with the current direction of the thread.

Prompt: Predict the Nintendo Switch lineup from now until December of 2024 in as much or as little detail as you'd like. The inclusion of expected reveal timing of games in the near future may be appropriate for discussion. Include as many first or third party games as you see fit. Don't worry about sharing all of your thoughts immediately or in a single post.

I'll provide my own response to this prompt soon, but I'd like to let the discussion start on its own and see some ideas flowing.
Alright, I'm finally sitting down to write out a response to my own prompt. I've had kind of a rough week.

Some background: for the purposes of this theory I am assuming that a full successor to Nintendo Switch will be launched on November 1, 2024. Under this theory the system was delayed significantly from this fall to next due to an unforeseen circumstance (manufacturing, system revision, readiness of new software, success of current models, etc), and accordingly the software that would have constituted a "cross-gen" period will support it in its last year instead. This falls outside of the purview of my prompt but note that this means that after the Switch 2 launch there would be no more Switch 1 games published by Nintendo (besides Pokémon).

June 2023:
2023.06.01: Splatoon 3 season 4
2023.06.30: Everybody 1-2 Switch
  • Pokémon Presents on ~June 14, featuring a remake of Pokémon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Sky coming on September 8 and Detective Pikachu 2 coming in early 2024, as well as Pokémon DLC coming, uh, whenever it's supposed to be coming
  • a Tweet ~June 20 confirms the fifth Mario Kart DLC wave coming on ~July 4
  • financial meeting confirms new system coming next fiscal year

July 2023:
2023.07.04: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass Wave 5
2023.07.21: Pikmin 4
- A short (~12 minutes) Pikmin 4 Direct on ~July 6, sadly not featuring Hitoshi Matsumoto. Miyamoto and Hino appear though. I'm expecting enough editing to be called a Direct but no overarching voiceover or marketing copy style

August 2023:
2023.08.08: F-ZERO GXDX
- Nintendo Direct returns on ~August 8, featuring the shadowdrop of a remaster of F-ZERO GX. A far cry from the full remake of Metroid Prime, but still sufficiently enhanced for its 40 USD price. Physical copies would ship two weeks later. Also featured: Super Mario Bros. & Co., a new 2D Mario adventure in a visually impressive 3D style coming November 17; Rhythm Heaven Shuffle, a new game co-developed by EPD and indieszero coming on September 29; the next season of Splatoon and its Side Order expansion, both releasing on ~September 1; the final wave of Mario Kart 8 DLC coming "this fall," featuring the final Tour city track Kyoto Kart; Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War, a remake coming in early 2024; and Metroid Prime 4, mercifully arriving on October 20.

September 2023:
2023.09.01: Splatoon 3 season 5
2023.09.01: Splatoon 3: Side Order
2023.09.08: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Sky DX
2023.09.29: Rhythm Heaven Shuffle
- Nintendo Direct mini: Partner Showcase returns on September 19 to showcase whatever third party games are still coming to the system in its last year

October 2023:
2023.10.03: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass Wave 6
2023.10.20: Metroid Prime 4
- Wave 6, already detailed in the August Direct, is given the "available now" treatment on October 3

November 2023:
2023.11.17: Super Mario Bros. & Co.
- Nintendo's presence at The Game Awards the following month becomes known. Rumors of a Nintendo Switch 2 reveal start swirling.

December 2023:
2023.12.01: Splatoon 3 season 6
- On December 8, a special guest makes an appearance at The Game Awards: that's right, a spitting image Mii of Geoff Keighley, who is joined by a Mii of Hideo Kojima in the new game Tomodachi World, coming on March 22. This section is mercifully short, with more details said to be coming soon, but gamers worldwide are baffled and angered by this decision.

January 2024:
  • First to go in our new twilight years paradigm is the beloved January game, which has been reserved for the anemic rest of the year (spoilers: it's Wind Waker)
  • Detective Pikachu 2: Pika-2 is confirmed to launch on February 16, 2024

February 2024:
2024.02.16: Detective Pikachu 2: Pika-2
- Y'all know what time it is: Nintendo Direct returns on ~February 7. The games featured: The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, adapted for Nintendo Switch and coming on April 26; Tomodachi World is shown in greater detail; the new Splatoon season is shown with a reminder that it is the penultimate season of new content; Fire Emblem is shown in greater detail and confirmed for May 24; bing bong, it's Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door HD, a loving remake by Intelligent Systems coming June 28; and finally, Donkey Kong Jungle Jamboree, a new 2D platformer by EPD Tokyo is revealed for "summer 2024." Note that Kirby is slightly dead due to the death of Vanpool and the greater development demands for the next 3D game.

March 2024:
2024.03.01: Splatoon 3 season 7
2024.03.22: Tomodachi World

April 2024:
2024.04.26: The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD

May 2024:
2024.05.24: Fire Emblem Genealogy of the Holy War
  • On ~May 14, a "Splatoon 3 Finale Direct" is held detailing the final season, which features: more weapon kits than any previous season to reach one alternate kit for every main weapon, returning stage Ancho-V Games alongside the return of their in-universe arcade games, including the new Squid Beatz Ultimate; weapon license buybacks for players who have acquired every weapon kit in the game; and finally news hosted by the Squid Sisters in Inkopolis and Off the Hook in Inkopolis Square. Additionally, the final update in September and Final Fest are announced: the Final Fest, which bafflingly in-universe asks players whether Splatoon, Splatoon 2, or Splatoon 3 is best, will take place ~September 7 to ~September 9.
  • Donkey Kong is unceremoniously confirmed for July 19 in a Tweet

June 2024:
2024.06.01: Splatoon 3 season 8
2024.06.28: Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door HD
  • E3 is still dead. Sorry Dring.
  • To my delight, the impending release of Paper Mario is completely overshadowed by a Tweet on ~June 10: "Tune in tomorrow at 9 AM PDT to learn about the future of Nintendo Switch." The following day "First look at Nintendo Switch 24" is uploaded to social media channels, showcasing a dramatically more powerful Nintendo Switch successor coming in fall of that year. The reveal teases new 3D Mario and Wave Race games similarly to the Nintendo Switch reveal. Nintendo promises that more details are forthcoming.

July 2024:
2024.07.19: Donkey Kong Jungle Jamboree
- Poor Donkey Kong. Thankfully, the full reveal event for Nintendo Switch 24 is held until after its release.

August 2024:
- A Nintendo Switch 24 digital event is held on ~August 1, formally revealing launch titles Super Mario Sandbox and Wave Race 24/7. Wave Race 24/7 features online play with time of day lighting accurate to the real world time and fictional location of a given course. The entire soundtrack is composed or co-composed by Totaka (!!!) and recorded by straight up fucking T-SQUARE. Also Mario has an open world but one smaller than that of games like GTA, Skyrim, or BOTW. The game instead focuses on density, verticality, and careful level design to create a robust platforming experience across the entire map. Cannons like those in Super Mario 64 showcase the new system's seamless world loading as a player shoots across a large swath of the map. A new Mario Kart, Mario Kart X, is shown and confirmed for a spring release. Also teased in the event is the next Animal Crossing game being in full development, a future Pikmin game being planned, and Star Fox nearing completion.

September 2024:
2024.09.01: Splatoon 3 version 9.0
- The Final Fest is epic, I fight valiantly for #TeamSplatoon

October 2024:
- It's marketing time for Nintendo Switch 24. We're talking Jimmy Fallon, preview events, Times Square billboards, and more. The Nintendo Switch is already a distant memory.

November 2024:
2024.11.01: Nintendo Switch 24
2024.11.01: Super Mario Sandbox
2024.11.01: Wave Race 24/7

December 2024:
- With two launch games, December is comfortably quiet.

Phew, that was exhausting. I promise the next prompt will be less laborious!
 
If we're gonna fall into madness, let's do it right.

We've had new hardware every two years in the Switch era, always announced in July. 2019, 2021... and 2023?
 
July 2019 was when they revealed the lite
July 2021 was when they revealed the oled
July 2023 was when they revealed the....
Hmmm
The backplate for the lite was leaked in April 2019, and OLED got conflated with new hardware for a hot minute so there's no real leak that couldn't be misconstrued, but if July is an event for something hardware related I'd be shocked that no physical evidence got leaked about it prior to release.

But also that makes it infinitely more puzzling because why would you showcase games with a max resolution of 1080p on old hardware when at best you're just rehashing the same news and clips but uprezzed? It would make more sense to talk about games in fancy new graphical qualities when you're not muzzled about new hardware.
 
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If the Persona 3 remake doesn't come to the Switch, then that'll just give me the motivation I need to finally finish my FeMC playthrough on 3 Portable.
 
Here’s the thing I think a lot of people might need a reminder on:

You can never rule out “Nintendo tightening up the ship and successfully preventing leaks” as a factor for lack of leaks/evidence.

like, there’s not much evidence for a possible July hardware reveal? Maybe there isn’t a July hardware reveal. Or maybe they actually managed to absolutely lock-down the pipeline and somehow managed to avoid every possible leak. Either can be true!
 
Wave Race 24/7 is actually built into the operating system of Nintendo Switch 24; it's always running, even when you're playing another game. This means that at any moment of your boring grindy JRPG you can set Shulk to auto kill and minimize his window to play Wave Race
 
Hey all of you @LukasManak22 doubters, why don't you speculate on this?!

friends-ross-geller.gif
 
Here’s the thing I think a lot of people might need a reminder on:

You can never rule out “Nintendo tightening up the ship and successfully preventing leaks” as a factor for lack of leaks/evidence.

like, there’s not much evidence for a possible July hardware reveal? Maybe there isn’t a July hardware reveal. Or maybe they actually managed to absolutely lock-down the pipeline and somehow managed to avoid every possible leak. Either can be true!

I buy this for a General Direct, I don't buy this for hardware. You can only tighten a ship that involves so many third-parties. The alternative is that no one has devkits yet, which uh if that's the case.....good luck on that launch window software I guess, I'd actually be less excited because that would mean third-party support would be pretty bad for a while.
 
What person is that?

Also, how exactly do we know that Nate voted June in the poll, is that just speculation?
Before the Great 2D Mario War, but after the June/September Schism, it was possible to see who voted for which poll option.

I was just a boy then, but I remember it like it was earlier this week. Nate voted for June, but then the sands of time erased all evidence.
 
Alright, I'm finally sitting down to write out a response to my own prompt. I've had kind of a rough week.

Some background: for the purposes of this theory I am assuming that a full successor to Nintendo Switch will be launched on November 1, 2024. Under this theory the system was delayed significantly from this fall to next due to an unforeseen circumstance (manufacturing, system revision, readiness of new software, success of current models, etc), and accordingly the software that would have constituted a "cross-gen" period will support it in its last year instead. This falls outside of the purview of my prompt but note that this means that after the Switch 2 launch there would be no more Switch 1 games published by Nintendo (besides Pokémon).

June 2023:
2023.06.01: Splatoon 3 season 4
2023.06.30: Everybody 1-2 Switch
  • Pokémon Presents on ~June 14, featuring a remake of Pokémon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Sky coming on September 8 and Detective Pikachu 2 coming in early 2024, as well as Pokémon DLC coming, uh, whenever it's supposed to be coming
  • a Tweet ~June 20 confirms the fifth Mario Kart DLC wave coming on ~July 4
  • financial meeting confirms new system coming next fiscal year

July 2023:
2023.07.04: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass Wave 5
2023.07.21: Pikmin 4
- A short (~12 minutes) Pikmin 4 Direct on ~July 6, sadly not featuring Hitoshi Matsumoto. Miyamoto and Hino appear though. I'm expecting enough editing to be called a Direct but no overarching voiceover or marketing copy style

August 2023:
2023.08.08: F-ZERO GXDX
- Nintendo Direct returns on ~August 8, featuring the shadowdrop of a remaster of F-ZERO GX. A far cry from the full remake of Metroid Prime, but still sufficiently enhanced for its 40 USD price. Physical copies would ship two weeks later. Also featured: Super Mario Bros. & Co., a new 2D Mario adventure in a visually impressive 3D style coming November 17; Rhythm Heaven Shuffle, a new game co-developed by EPD and indieszero coming on September 29; the next season of Splatoon and its Side Order expansion, both releasing on ~September 1; the final wave of Mario Kart 8 DLC coming "this fall," featuring the final Tour city track Kyoto Kart; Fire Emblem: Genealogy of the Holy War, a remake coming in early 2024; and Metroid Prime 4, mercifully arriving on October 20.

September 2023:
2023.09.01: Splatoon 3 season 5
2023.09.01: Splatoon 3: Side Order
2023.09.08: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon Explorers of Sky DX
2023.09.29: Rhythm Heaven Shuffle
- Nintendo Direct mini: Partner Showcase returns on September 19 to showcase whatever third party games are still coming to the system in its last year

October 2023:
2023.10.03: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass Wave 6
2023.10.20: Metroid Prime 4
- Wave 6, already detailed in the August Direct, is given the "available now" treatment on October 3

November 2023:
2023.11.17: Super Mario Bros. & Co.
- Nintendo's presence at The Game Awards the following month becomes known. Rumors of a Nintendo Switch 2 reveal start swirling.

December 2023:
2023.12.01: Splatoon 3 season 6
- On December 8, a special guest makes an appearance at The Game Awards: that's right, a spitting image Mii of Geoff Keighley, who is joined by a Mii of Hideo Kojima in the new game Tomodachi World, coming on March 22. This section is mercifully short, with more details said to be coming soon, but gamers worldwide are baffled and angered by this decision.

January 2024:
  • First to go in our new twilight years paradigm is the beloved January game, which has been reserved for the anemic rest of the year (spoilers: it's Wind Waker)
  • Detective Pikachu 2: Pika-2 is confirmed to launch on February 16, 2024

February 2024:
2024.02.16: Detective Pikachu 2: Pika-2
- Y'all know what time it is: Nintendo Direct returns on ~February 7. The games featured: The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, adapted for Nintendo Switch and coming on April 26; Tomodachi World is shown in greater detail; the new Splatoon season is shown with a reminder that it is the penultimate season of new content; Fire Emblem is shown in greater detail and confirmed for May 24; bing bong, it's Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door HD, a loving remake by Intelligent Systems coming June 28; and finally, Donkey Kong Jungle Jamboree, a new 2D platformer by EPD Tokyo is revealed for "summer 2024." Note that Kirby is slightly dead due to the death of Vanpool and the greater development demands for the next 3D game.

March 2024:
2024.03.01: Splatoon 3 season 7
2024.03.22: Tomodachi World

April 2024:
2024.04.26: The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD

May 2024:
2024.05.24: Fire Emblem Genealogy of the Holy War
  • On ~May 14, a "Splatoon 3 Finale Direct" is held detailing the final season, which features: more weapon kits than any previous season to reach one alternate kit for every main weapon, returning stage Ancho-V Games alongside the return of their in-universe arcade games, including the new Squid Beatz Ultimate; weapon license buybacks for players who have acquired every weapon kit in the game; and finally news hosted by the Squid Sisters in Inkopolis and Off the Hook in Inkopolis Square. Additionally, the final update in September and Final Fest are announced: the Final Fest, which bafflingly in-universe asks players whether Splatoon, Splatoon 2, or Splatoon 3 is best, will take place ~September 7 to ~September 9.
  • Donkey Kong is unceremoniously confirmed for July 19 in a Tweet

June 2024:
2024.06.01: Splatoon 3 season 8
2024.06.28: Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door HD
  • E3 is still dead. Sorry Dring.
  • To my delight, the impending release of Paper Mario is completely overshadowed by a Tweet on ~June 10: "Tune in tomorrow at 9 AM PDT to learn about the future of Nintendo Switch." The following day "First look at Nintendo Switch 24" is uploaded to social media channels, showcasing a dramatically more powerful Nintendo Switch successor coming in fall of that year. The reveal teases new 3D Mario and Wave Race games similarly to the Nintendo Switch reveal. Nintendo promises that more details are forthcoming.

July 2024:
2024.07.19: Donkey Kong Jungle Jamboree
- Poor Donkey Kong. Thankfully, the full reveal event for Nintendo Switch 24 is held until after its release.

August 2024:
- A Nintendo Switch 24 digital event is held on ~August 1, formally revealing launch titles Super Mario Sandbox and Wave Race 24/7. Wave Race 24/7 features online play with time of day lighting accurate to the real world time and fictional location of a given course. The entire soundtrack is composed or co-composed by Totaka (!!!) and recorded by straight up fucking T-SQUARE. Also Mario has an open world but one smaller than that of games like GTA, Skyrim, or BOTW. The game instead focuses on density, verticality, and careful level design to create a robust platforming experience across the entire map. Cannons like those in Super Mario 64 showcase the new system's seamless world loading as a player shoots across a large swath of the map. A new Mario Kart, Mario Kart X, is shown and confirmed for a spring release. Also teased in the event is the next Animal Crossing game being in full development, a future Pikmin game being planned, and Star Fox nearing completion.

September 2024:
2024.09.01: Splatoon 3 version 9.0
- The Final Fest is epic, I fight valiantly for #TeamSplatoon

October 2024:
- It's marketing time for Nintendo Switch 24. We're talking Jimmy Fallon, preview events, Times Square billboards, and more. The Nintendo Switch is already a distant memory.

November 2024:
2024.11.01: Nintendo Switch 24
2024.11.01: Super Mario Sandbox
2024.11.01: Wave Race 24/7

December 2024:
- With two launch games, December is comfortably quiet.

Phew, that was exhausting. I promise the next prompt will be less laborious!
Even though I’m Team June till the end, this is impressively detailed and I would be quite pleased if this was the actual outcome. I must’ve missed it, but what does the 24 in Nintendo Switch 24 refer to?
 
Even though I’m Team June till the end, this is impressively detailed and I would be quite pleased if this was the actual outcome. I must’ve missed it, but what does the 24 in Nintendo Switch 24 refer to?

it's a subtle reference to the amount of Wave Race games they intend to release for it
 
Even though I’m Team June till the end, this is impressively detailed and I would be quite pleased if this was the actual outcome. I must’ve missed it, but what does the 24 in Nintendo Switch 24 refer to?
24 hours before it's out of stock until late 2025
 
Even though I’m Team June till the end, this is impressively detailed and I would be quite pleased if this was the actual outcome. I must’ve missed it, but what does the 24 in Nintendo Switch 24 refer to?
  • the 24/7 availability of play a hybrid provides
  • the year it comes out
 
0
I buy this for a General Direct, I don't buy this for hardware. You can only tighten a ship that involves so many third-parties. The alternative is that no one has devkits yet, which uh if that's the case.....good luck on that launch window software I guess, I'd actually be less excited because that would mean third-party support would be pretty bad for a while.

I have to agree here. The Switch was heavily NDA'd and yet we got plenty of leaks in 2016 before the reveal in October. Even beyond 3rd party developers, supply chain leaks alone will reveal things months in advance.
 
Grubb's been off or late on Direct info before, iirc
I don't really think he gives out info when it comes to when a direct will happen. Usually just speculation. Last year he was kind of on the nose when he said he didn't hear of a june direct but that Nintendo would be doing small things here and there, which was more or less accurate.
 
Open with Fire Emblem. End with Zelda and/or Xenoblade. Nintendo knows the formula that the people want. Come on Nintendo. It's been at least 13 hours since I played any of these. We're starving here.
Somewhere in between these two is the announcement of Mario Lacrosse
 
0
Wave Race 24/7 features online play with time of day lighting accurate to the real world time and fictional location of a given course. The entire soundtrack is composed or co-composed by Totaka (!!!) and recorded by straight up fucking T-SQUARE.
I have never once heard of this name before but I blame you for putting him in my release radar from last week because I am hearing of this artist and this song for the first time today and damn it slaps

 
considering making a threadmark clarifying that the Japanese Direct site update article is just reporting on the US site. thoughts?
 
I have never once heard of this name before but I blame you for putting him in my release radar from last week because I am hearing of this artist and this song for the first time today and damn it slaps


T-SQUARE (formerly The Square) is actually musical chairs of like twenty-seven Japanese dudes over four decades
 
"Please put Tears of the Kingdom on pause and tune in for an approximately 40 minute Nintendo Direct presentation focusing on games releasing in the second half of 2023 + TotK DLC."
‘Here’s ten minutes on some new games and then 30 minutes of Zelda players roasting chickens, torturing koroks and making armoured vehicles’
 
Nintendo updating the Direct website theory has never failed. Every time they have done so, we have gotten a Direct...eventually
 
Mp4 realistically will probably be the ending of any direct where its first (re)revealed. Unless that direct also features mario, but i dont think its happening this year.
 
I don't really think he gives out info when it comes to when a direct will happen. Usually just speculation. Last year he was kind of on the nose when he said he didn't hear of a june direct but that Nintendo would be doing small things here and there, which was more or less accurate.
...what.

He has literally leaked exact Direct dates before, and often at least reveals the week it will be well in advance.
 
Between the Direct website update, the Nate vote scandal, the eShop sale, the Brazilian Portugese tweets, and the sheer size of my RPG backlog, all the sound of an imminent Direct is becoming deafening.
 
Okay the pikmin party is almost here, but when that’s done we get ready for mario (hopefully), rewatching the movie made me REALLY want a new game
 
0
Between the Direct website update, the Nate vote scandal, the eShop sale, the Brazilian Portugese tweets, and the sheer size of my RPG backlog, all the sound of an imminent Direct is becoming deafening.
Hitting me where it hurts. I'm right there with you.
 
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