StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Goodtwin]

What's your read if May investor meeting comes and goes without a mention at all?

Forecast of just Switch and Switch software can't be too promising to investors, I'm curious if there would be much fallout if Nintendo is still silent on future hardware. It just feels like we have been in this cycle of setting deadlines on when things have to happen for so long.

Let me be clear, while it is my expectation, I still chalk this up as a probability rather than a certainty. My expectation if Nintendo does not announce it prior or at the investors meeting (which a casual mention similar to 2015 is possible), Nintendo will be bombarded with questions concerning the future and specifically when they can expect new hardware. Even though Nintendo has fielded some questions concerning next gen hardware in the past, this will be the first year where they will be forecasting a significant decline in sales. Nintendo has been able to sell around 20 million units per year for quite a few years, and while the 2024 fiscal year saw a decline to around 15 million units, the writing is on the wall for another notable drop for fiscal 2025, likely around 10 million units. In the span of 2 years, they went from selling 20 million units to about half that, so its fair to ask hard questions that pertain to the decline of their primary business, videogame hardware and software sales. Its true that even with lower sales Nintendo is still a healthy company and will remain profitable, but for investors who get paid out based on profits, seeing a steady rate of decline with no vision of the future being given, it would be fair to see a sell off happen that will cause a decline in share pricing.

Before the news broke about an internal delay to early 2025, I was fully expecting a nice teaser trailer in March, something similar to the October 2016 trailer. As it stands now, I am expecting a simple PR statement with a name and release of March 2025 with more details to come at a later date. I know June has been thrown around a lot, but if its coming in March 2025, the whole year is basically wide open as a possibility.

 

[Hermii]

If Nintendo thinks that they can sell a good amount of Switch 1 hardware and software this FY they could still hold on next gen announcement. Especially if switch 2 could release in Q2 2025.

Edit: I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another switch restyle/sku before the next gen reveal at this point.

They kind of have to announce it before mass production. If they don't want a leak to steal their thunder.

 

[Triistan]

They kind of have to announce it before mass production. If they don't want a leak to steal their thunder.

Mass production will likely start after this summer at the earliest as far as we know :-/

 

[Hosermess]

"Nintendo Switch 2 will launch in early 2025. We will offer further details at a later date."

If this ends up being the initial reveal, this will be completely underwhelming compared to something like the October 2016 teaser trailer for Switch. A simple PR statement like this would really only be confirming what we already believe and doesn't add anything new.

Nintendo confirming something that we already believe about Switch 2 would actually be something new.

 

[boodream]

Mass production will likely start after this summer at the earliest as far as we know :-/

At this point, I'd almost like them to integrate it into the next Direct right from the introduction, by explaining that they'll be doing a dedicated event in early 2025, which would calm everyone down and still leave time for the games announced during this Direct to occupy the media space. At the moment, there'll be a lot of talk about the Switch 2, but if you've got DK, Prime 4, Fire Emblem etc. scheduled for the second half of the year, they'll be less affected by an announcement of the next console earlier and before the release of these second-half games than by an announcement at the end of the year or even in the summer, in my opinion.

 

[Beansy]

Guys, my uncle, Doug Beanser, works for Nintendo. He told me that the new console is the Nintendo Prime. Nintendo is getting rid of every IP except Metroid Prime. The tablet has a 79" screen that you can fit into a dock the same size as the Switch's. It'll come out at 500$ USD or seven cows and your third child.

 

[ILikeFeet]

If the delay means that their choice of RAM can decrease in price a smidge or they can safely pay for 16GB of RAM in the final product, we won in the long run.

If they wanted that, then they wouldn't have delayed since memory prices have since gone up

But really, they already have signed a contract on parts by now. They're locked in unless they want to do a last minute change (at a higher cost)

 

[Hermii]

If they wanted that, then they wouldn't have delayed since memory prices have since gone up

But really, they already have signed a contract on parts by now. They're locked in unless they want to do a last minute change (at a higher cost)

The delay caused a downgrade to 8, is the worst timeline.

 

[Danny]

If Nintendo is aiming to release Switch 2 during the next fiscal year they will have to mention the system existing in about a 1 months time, if that doesn't happen it mean the Switch 2 release date will be late 2025 rather than early 2025.

 

[MP!]

does anyone still believe in a late 2024 launch?

 

[Truno]

does anyone still believe in a late 2024 launch?

I did a month ago

 

[karmitt]

I am once again here to say I’m right and told you so, 2025 was the most obvious year.

Let’s not do victory laps in here, especially when there is no “obvious” answer to much of the speculation.

 

[aus89]

Nintendo confirming something that we already believe would actually be a first.

With a hypothetical March release, expecting anything substantial before like September/October is just wishful thinking - PS5 was not shown til June 2020 for November release (Xbox's earlier showing is more a recognition of their place in the industry and the reveal of Hellblade 2 happening at the same show) - so 5 months out. Nintendo aren't going to show anything substantial til the end of the year, and a small press release/logo/name reveal is the most we can expect in H1

 

[bmfrosty]

The question is if they continue the Switch line after Switch “2“ and if they drop gimmicks and innovation and play it “safe“ like many people claim (without evidence). Also there could be breakthroughs in battery tech (especially now it’s very important for the car industry) and other materials for chips, new rendering technologies, more specialized chips etc..
There are just too many unknowns in this equation to somewhat realistically predict the future.

Anyway, Nintendo jumped off the power race in the 2000s, they‘ll continue to improve power within means as long as it‘s feasible (and necessary), but I don’t see them stopping making new generations with stagnant processing power.

Let's say limit it to the Switch form factor and not assume any deeply new technologies for microchips. It's still hits a certain size feature where the features can't get any smaller, and for that form factor you can deal with x watts of heat. I think that becomes the end for that form factor, even if batteries get better.

 

[karmitt]

does anyone still believe in a late 2024 launch?

Major showcases in 2024 of what it is and games coming to it are good enough for me now. Once we cross that line, the wait from late 2024 to early 2025 is pretty trivial.

 

[Hermii]

I am once again here to say I’m right and told you so, 2025 was the most obvious year.

Pretty much disagree with the entire post. There was nothing predictable about an internal delay.

Anyway such a late release definitely puts it back on where it was intended to be in the tech landscape at the time of its release , as it will launch more outdated than it otherwise has been, I don’t think it will have any real consequences other than some companies using it as an excuse to not port things.

Why would Nintendo intend it to be more outdated?Anyway I don't think 6 months will make a difference to how dated it seems. The performance of Drake is the performance of Drake, third parties wont need an excuse to don't port things if they don't want to.

I wonder if it has any larger ramifications for the fire of Nintendo hardware though, will the pro or lite version be delayed accordingly or released early.

A pro made sense for the original Switch and it never got one. A pro doesn't make sense for Drake, especially if it launches on 4nm. Tech doesn't increase/ go down in price/ up in performance at the rate it used to. I also don't expect efficiency gains anywhere close to Mariko during this gen.

As now a lot of 2nd year games can pretty easily fit into the first year if they wanted to change things up.

It might be the recipe for a year to surpass 2017/2023/2022

Agree.

 

[Steve]

Major showcases in 2024 of what it is and games coming to it are good enough for me now. Once we cross that line, the wait from late 2024 to early 2025 is pretty trivial.

The software is about to go crazy next year.

 

[SoldierDelta]

Major showcases in 2024 of what it is and games coming to it are good enough for me now. Once we cross that line, the wait from late 2024 to early 2025 is pretty trivial.

I just want to know what games are releasing man... Actual Interesting News™ is in short supply and high demand.

I still am holding out a tiny hope for it to be a late-2024 release, but I've basically accepted that the odds are 1 in 100 at best. I'd just take news about the device at all at this stage.

 

[Steve]

I just want to know what games are releasing man... Actual Interesting News™ is in short supply and high demand.

I still am holding out a tiny hope for it to be a late-2024 release, but I've basically accepted that the odds are 1 in 100 at best. I'd just take news about the device at all at this stage.

If they have a reveal trailer in summer, something similar to the switch reveal trailer, with showcasing the hardware and couple of third and first party games.
Let the reveal be in summer and a full blown presentation in October, then i think i would be satisfied.
But i think we'll get a full blown presentation in summer and a reveal trailer as well instead.

 

[Lugia667]

did the postcast happen already btw?

 

[Triistan]

At this point, I'd almost like them to integrate it into the next Direct right from the introduction, by explaining that they'll be doing a dedicated event in early 2025, which would calm everyone down and still leave time for the games announced during this Direct to occupy the media space. At the moment, there'll be a lot of talk about the Switch 2, but if you've got DK, Prime 4, Fire Emblem etc. scheduled for the second half of the year, they'll be less affected by an announcement of the next console earlier and before the release of these second-half games than by an announcement at the end of the year or even in the summer, in my opinion.

Would be nice, in this way third parties could make their next gen announcement too.

 

[Djehuty]

Let’s not do victory laps in here, especially when there is no “obvious” answer to much of the speculation.

There are a couple scnerraios

Games behind
Unti Productions behind
Copyright stuff is having trouble
A major last minute flaw was found in its design.

The first two were always going to cause a delay whether Nintendo liked it or not, they were always behind and 2024 was an unrealistic schedule that was never going to happen thus they probably knew that it wasn’t going to happen ’, The latter two were unlikely scenarios that happened meaning that no one could have foreseen and planned ahead for a delay between those two types of delays I do think the effect will have different consequences.

Anyway, this entire thread has been loosey goosey speculation for years now, so I’m going to speculate anyway.

 

[karmitt]

There are a couple scnerraios

Games behind
Unti Productions behind
Copyright stuff is having trouble
A major last minute flaw was found in its design.

The first two were always going to cause a delay whether Nintendo liked it or not, they were always behind and 2024 was an unrealistic schedule that was never going to happen thus they probably knew that it wasn’t going to happen ’, The latter two were unlikely scenarios that happened meaning that no one could have foreseen and planned ahead for a delay between those two types of delays I do think the effect will have different consequences.

Anyway, this entire thread has been loosey goosey speculation for years now, so I’m going to speculate anyway.

You miss the point of my stepping in entirely. I frankly do not care whatsoever who was right, or if speculation in any camp was or was not flawed.

I’m asking that we don’t post things like “I’m right and I told you so” (ie. the victory lap) regardless of how things shake out. It’s mean spirited and this thread can already get pretty hostile without these types of statements.

 

[TLZ]

I tried getting into the xeno series but every time I try I legit just cant get a grip on the combat idk whats wrong with me. I need to try again though because everything I see about xenoblade just has me in aww and I wanna get immersed into that universe so badly!

Nothing's wrong with you. I also can't get into the series. It's the combat too.

 

[Vanillalite]

I like Xeno, but combat is probably my least fav part of the game. So you’re not weird.

I wish we’d get another Golden Sun or just another new RPG franchise in general to bounce in during the years Xeno isn’t dropping.

 

[RedSpring]

I tried getting into the xeno series but every time I try I legit just cant get a grip on the combat idk whats wrong with me. I need to try again though because everything I see about xenoblade just has me in aww and I wanna get immersed into that universe so badly!

Really recommend watching a youtube video. Especially Xeno 2 and 3 can be pretty confusing with all the systems and the rhythm like mechanic. The game does a good overview of the systems but not very good at how they works together. I always recommend starting with 1 and watching youtube video for the characters in your party. There's not too many systems in the first game and every character can be simplified down to a simple combat loop with a devastatingly powerful chain attack strategy.

 

[Lucifer]

I like Xeno, but combat is probably my least fav part of the game. So you’re not weird.

I wish we’d get another Golden Sun or just another new RPG franchise in general to bounce in during the years Xeno isn’t dropping.

Same here. Love everything about Xeno except for the combat. I try my best, then suddenly at some point a shitload starts happening on screen and enemies one shot everyone. Then I give up and switch to easy lol. Which then makes it kind of boring.

 

[chocolate_supra]

I tried getting into the xeno series but every time I try I legit just cant get a grip on the combat idk whats wrong with me. I need to try again though because everything I see about xenoblade just has me in aww and I wanna get immersed into that universe so badly!

Nothing's wrong with you. I also can't get into the series. It's the combat too.

I absolutely adore Xenoblade and even I don't like the combat

I tell people it goes to show how good the worlds and stories are if I love an RPG series where I don't like the combat.

 

[ziggyrivers]

My two cents on the following subjects:

• Re: Nintendo releasing yet another Switch model - I can see them making an all digital, $249.99 SKU, phasing out the V2 Switch, and having the following ecosystem of consoles:
  • $199.99 Lite
  • 249.99 Switch WHATEVER
  • 349.99 OLED
  • 399-449.99 Switch 2
• Re: Nintendo not naming the successor for the sake of Switch sales - The company is pretty aware that what's left of the Switch is to maintain its current userbase. The cant't do anymore except start transitioning them to the next console whenever it releases. So I don't think they'd care.
• Re: Switch 2 press release reveal same as NX - No. With the NX, we didn't know what to expect. We had an idea, a hybrid console, but not something very obvious. With the Switch's success, the fact that Nintendo has maintained the same operational aspect and other details, we pretty much know that their next gen console is an evolution of the Switch form factor, as in, a Switch 2, or whatever it ends up being called. How I think the Switch 2 should be revealed is the same way they unveiled the Switch: random twitter announcement for a next day unveil.

 

[oldpuck]

My two cents on the following subjects:

• Re: Nintendo releasing yet another Switch model - I can see them making an all digital, $249.99 SKU, phasing out the V2 Switch, and having the following ecosystem of consoles:

I think a new model isn't totally insane, but I don't think an all-digital model makes much sense for Nintendo. Optical drives are big mechanical parts that cost money to make, cost money to ship, and cost money to cover under warranty. Cartridge readers are basically a chip plus empty space.

Nintendo probably can't make a digital model that is cheaper to manufacture than the regular Switch. That's not a dealbreaker. If Nintendo thought that a cheaper digital only model would open up a new market for them, they'd take it. But right now I think it would be easier and more profitable to price cut the V2. No need to shell out the cash for a redesign, just move as many units as possible to clear out storage.

I've talked down the TV only model in the past, but there would be real savings in getting rid of the screen and the dock. You can imagine Nintendo seeing a stack of motherboards in a lot somewhere beside the little-sold charging grip, and realizing that are little more than a plastic shell away from a new product.

 

[NintenDuvo]

did the postcast happen already btw?

yes but it was just a catching up on Streamlabs questions episode, so nothing new

 

[Steve]

Thankfully we'll be hearing more from Sega and Atlus.
Hopefully, this time around everythings goes well and we'll get our imports of switch 2 ports rumor.

 

[kasparov77]

Thankfully we'll be hearing more from Sega and Atlus.
Hopefully, this time around everythings goes well and we'll get our imports of switch 2 ports rumor.

maybe she's just making an april fools joke here.
or maybe shell just come back to the platform to make regular daily life posts/share thoughts instead of leaks.

would be really weird announcing a comeback on april 1st like that...

 

[chocolate_supra]

maybe she's just making an april fools joke here.
or maybe shell just come back to the platform to make regular daily life posts/share thoughts instead of leaks.

would be really weird announcing a comeback on april 1st like that...

If she's in Japan then it's not April 1 for her

 

[Steve]

maybe she's just making an april fools joke here.
or maybe shell just come back to the platform to make regular daily life posts/share thoughts instead of leaks.

would be really weird announcing a comeback on april 1st like that...

Nope we are back.

After this we’ll be getting the Dev kit leak from Ubisoft.

 

[eye0h]

If she's in Japan then it's not April 1 for her

She'd tweet good morning posts every day, usually before posting info I believe. They were pretty consistent with the japanese timezone. I'm guessing she's just back

e. well it's confirmed she's back

 

[CalmMind]

Nintendo confirming something that we already believe about Switch 2 would actually be something new.

There is no consensus. Not that it matters. I myself like October of this year but I like being an outlier.

 

[NintenDuvo]

Nope we are back.

After this we’ll be getting the Dev kit leak from Ubisoft.

good i actually like her and look forward to whatever games he can tell us Sega/Atlus are cooking up for the Switch 2

 

[ziggyrivers]

The basketball quotes memes alwsys get me hahahah

 

[KeijiKG]

Did you just edit your message so this one made sense?

I regret faking being at fault for your choices, so yes.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I laughed out loud when I saw this statement from みどり, in China Kobe Bryant is a Hell Joke.

 

[kingman]

PS5 Pro is introducing ML accelated scaling/ New RT accelerators. Xbox One X is a lot more powerful than One. Series S Is a a new gen, but in some ways weaker than One X. Not to mention Wii was basically a GC.

I really think the difference is marketing as much as anything else.

Edit: Also I think it is about rendering techniques that are incompatible with older hardware, such as mesh shading.

Will Switch 2 be capable of mesh shading?

 

[Hermii]

Will Switch 2 be capable of mesh shading?

Yep.

 

[Apenknul]

So, Endless Ocean, Paper Mario in May, Luigi's Mansion 2 in June. After that, we won't be getting anything from Nintendo, aside Metroid Prime 4 that doesn't have anything as of information. We prolly expecting a Direct this month, right? And a Switch 2 reveal trailer in June. Is there any chance it's vice versa? A reveal this month and a Direct in June?

 

[Hermii]

So, Endless Ocean, Paper Mario in May, Luigi's Mansion 2 in June. After that, we won't be getting anything from Nintendo, aside Metroid Prime 4 that doesn't have anything as of information. We prolly expecting a Direct this month, right? And a Switch 2 reveal trailer in June. Is there any chance it's vice versa? A reveal this month and a Direct in June?

There might be a reveal in the style of a tweet saying "We are hard at work on next gen, stay tuned for more information". But I doubt a proper reveal will happen this month.

 

[RennanNT]

So, Endless Ocean, Paper Mario in May, Luigi's Mansion 2 in June. After that, we won't be getting anything from Nintendo, aside Metroid Prime 4 that doesn't have anything as of information. We prolly expecting a Direct this month, right? And a Switch 2 reveal trailer in June. Is there any chance it's vice versa? A reveal this month and a Direct in June?

It could happen in many ways. The expectation about Direct now is because Brazil, who first leaked the delay, heard about it but weren't sure.

I could easily see them acknowledging the system in April so they can talk about it to shareholders next month and so 3rd parties can announce multiplat games for it, but not truly reveal it until September or October.

 

[Stinky Horse]

Remember when Pikmin 4 was the last dated game and people thought it meant Switch 2 news was soon? It wasn't that long ago.

 

[Darknut85]

Remember when Pikmin 4 was the last dated game and people thought it meant Switch 2 news was soon? It wasn't that long ago.

These were better days, we were naive, innocent and hopeful. Now we‘re awoken, and our cynical selves realize what fools we‘ve been.

#Team20XX

 

[Apenknul]

There might be a reveal in the style of a tweet saying "We are hard at work on next gen, stay tuned for more information". But I doubt a proper reveal will happen this month.

I could easily see them acknowledging the system in April so they can talk about it to shareholders next month and so 3rd parties can announce multiplat games for it, but not truly reveal it until September or October.

That would actually be so relieving for many of us, huh. I like the idea, but I don't wanna put too much on it. By announcing it in a tweet like that, so that 3rd parties have more room for announcements, would be pretty relieving for them aswell, I assume

 

[eye0h]

That would actually be so relieving for many of us, huh. I like the idea, but I don't wanna put too much on it. By announcing it in a tweet like that, so that 3rd parties have more room for announcements, would be pretty relieving for them aswell, I assume

I'm more interested in 3rd party than first party. I really want to see how far they can push this thing in its early life.

I also have full confidence Nintendo will put out heaters that I'm buying by default so it's less exciting to me lol.