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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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YolkFolk said:
Got to admit I do find it a bit confusing how ‘March 2024’ was seemingly mentioned so often but yet we don’t know if it’s a launch or reveal.

Were people walking round like Psyduck going ‘March, March March’ and offering nothing else?
Click to expand...
Maybe everytime someone sneezed they said "March!" instead of "Achoo!".
 
snorkellingfish said:
Probably yes. Psyduck, psyduck.

More seriously, the options I've seen suggested for why developers would be aware of a March date are:
  • It's the date they've been told to have marketing material ready for the reveal;
  • It's the date that NDAs expire;
  • It's the date they've been told to have games ready to submit for prepublication checks if they want them to be ready for launch;
  • It's the actual launch window.
I tend to think the last one is the least likely, in the sense that it's the least ambiguous one - if they're told a proposed release date, then they know it's a proposed release date.

The other three options leave more room for developers to be speculating what the deadline means for reveal/release, and therefore, to me, feel more consistent with the ambiguity in the information floating around.

But who knows? Maybe they are all secretly Psyduck with massive headaches.
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During the direct it was mentioned that the Nintendo Museum is going to open up in March 2024, i don’t know about you guys but when i heard that something clicked in my mind. I think we may be getting a reveal of Switch 2 from the completed museum.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Now that the direct is over. I think the following is a safe bet:

  • Reveal in March
  • Release in May or September
  • Metroid Prime 4 will be a cross-gen launch game.
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I would bank on a reveal in May and a release in Q3.
Bonejack said:
I know this was in Germany, but let me assure you, we don't say that when someone sneezes.

We say "Gesundheit" or in case it's an old friend "Verreck' du sau". :]
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"Regenschirm!"
 
tombec94 said:
During the direct it was mentioned that the Nintendo Museum is going to open up in March 2024, i don’t know about you guys but when i heard that something clicked in my mind. I think we may be getting a reveal of Switch 2 from the completed museum.
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The SoC is so outdated they have to bring it out of the museum to start production.
 
I know it's just a console from a multi billion company whose sole purpose is to make money, but I'm honestly feeling kinda sad/depressed about the Switch 2 being potentially 8nm.

Thing is... the console would have to least 6-7 years in the market, and the features they use at launch, are the only features they are going to have until the Switch 3.

I know I shouldn't feel this way, but I do.
 
Wasn’t there an insider who cryptically tweeted something like “2 early”, and the speculators went nuts? Could they have meant Nintendo was trying to push launch from H2 to H1? Would line up with the March launch theory. My personal deadline: reveal by the end of October, if not then I’m off the March bandwagon.
 
Cuzizkool said:
Wasn’t there an insider who cryptically tweeted something like “2 early”, and the speculators went nuts? Could they have meant Nintendo was trying to push launch from H2 to H1? Would line up with the March launch theory. My personal deadline: reveal by the end of October, if not then I’m off the March bandwagon.
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I think that was maybe saying people were expecting the Switch 2 "2 early", and that they were speculating too soon.
 
Pooroomoo said:
I haven't read each and every post here, but I think no one took the following possibility into account:

People seem to have already forgotten, but not so long ago, there were insane shortages. You had to order your place in advance to manufacture your SOC/parts/whatever and if you canceled, you risked the next open space being years away and/or incurring an insane rise in prices.

Now imagine Nintendo wanting to secure mass manufacturing to prevent shortages, knowing when exactly they needed everything, and no end in sight to the shortages. I can see Nintendo securing whatever manufacturing space was available for the node size they thought they needed at the time, with a hard contract, binding both Samsung and Nintendo, and so no way for them to change anything (in the short term at least) now that things have changed.

That's another possibility imo.
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It's not Nintendo who does the contract with the fab but the company manufacturing the chip. And while the shortage theory would be something to be considered, as far as 2021, Nvidia had already pre-paid a big amount of money to TSMC to secure allocation of TSMC N5 family. So Nvidia and Nintendo would have a range of options to fab the chip, being they 8N, 7N or 4N.
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
It's not Nintendo who does the contract with the fab but the company manufacturing the chip. And while the shortage theory would be something to be considered, as far as 2021, Nvidia had already pre-paid a big amount of money to TSMC to secure allocation of TSMC N5 family. So Nvidia and Nintendo would have a range of options to fab the chip, being they 8N, 7N or 4N.
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TSMC has even developed a special 5nm process especially for Nvidia. This is called TSMC 4N, but it is explicitly a 5nm process. Nvidia sells rather few gaming GPUs because of the economic situation and the high prices in the GPU sector, but the graphics cards for AI are sold like hot cakes. The problem with the AI GPUs is not the production capacity of the actual chips, but the complex packaging with the huge amounts of memory on the individual cards. It wouldn't be a problem to produce additional wafers for Nintendo in 4N, a mobile chip in this format doesn't need these complex packaging methods.

tl;dr: No shortage of capacity for process-nodes better than Samsung 8nm, it is up to Nvidia and Nintendo what they do.
 
Re: Paper Mario TTYD



We don't talk enough about all the reflections and lighting effects used in the trailer, is this actually running on Switch 1 or some cross-gen scenario?

It looks like some RT is involved no ? If anything it gives us a look at what Nintendo future games are looking like, lot of reflections and shiny floors!

Also the Switch buttons are colored to match Super Famicom/new Nintendo 3DS colors, man I hope they don't call it Super Switch
 
P4bl0 said:
Re: Paper Mario TTYD



We don't talk enough about all the reflections and lighting effects used in the trailer, is this actually running on Switch 1 or some cross-gen scenario?

It looks like some RT is involved no ?

Also the Switch buttons are colored to match Super Famicom/new Nintendo 3DS colors, man I hope they don't call it Super Switch
Click to expand...

Was only a matter of time.

No, it's not Switch 2.
 
P4bl0 said:
Re: Paper Mario TTYD



We don't talk enough about all the reflections and lighting effects used in the trailer, is this actually running on Switch 1 or some cross-gen scenario?

It looks like some RT is involved no ? If anything it gives us a look at what Nintendo future games are looking like, lot of reflections and shiny floors!

Also the Switch buttons are colored to match Super Famicom/new Nintendo 3DS colors, man I hope they don't call it Super Switch
Click to expand...

You are really undermining what the Switch 1 can do
 
Hermii said:
Was only a matter of time.

No, it's not Switch 2.
Click to expand...

I know it's not, but this might be available on the Switch 2 also hence all the groundwork for the reflections etc.. this version runs at 30 fps on Switch 1 while the original was running 60 fps on GC

This leaves room for a Switch 2 cross release or patch
 
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to be in the gamescon presentation, see the botw demo and the matrix demo and whatever more, but then "oh yeah they talked about something on March but I was too busy buying Nintendo stock so I didn't ear it well lol". Like there's a lot of talk about March but it does not make sense to not know for what the date is. Why reveal the tech side and then be coy of this?
 
P4bl0 said:
I know it's not, but this might be available on the Switch 2 also hence all the groundwork for the reflections etc.. this version runs at 30 fps on Switch 1 while the original was running 60 fps on GC

This leaves room for a Switch 2 cross release or patch
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it looks very clean. considering the vague 2024 date this could absolutely get a 4k/60 cross-gen version.
 
Yeah that reddit rumor is bull. Nobody but executives would have that breadth of information. Glad to see it's being treated as such here.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
4chan rumor that was shared on Reddit.














Lots to chew on, thoughts ?
Click to expand...


I usually don't bother to respond to these obviously fake claims with zero backing behind them, but just to be clear: this is 100% nonsense.

The T239 wasn't cancelled. We have ample evidence that it taped out mid last year and Nvidia has continued supporting it in software since then.

The defining characteristic of Altan was that it included one of Nvidia's BlueField DPUs, a datacenter-grade networking chip. Nvidia sensibly realised that this is a complete waste of silicon for an automotive SoC, and dropped it from the chip, increasing the size of the GPU instead, and coming out with Thor. There is absolutely no way Nvidia would say to themselves "Hey, an SoC with an embedded datacenter-grade networking chip is overkill for an automotive use-case, how about we re-use it for a handheld gaming console instead?".

As a general rule, if any rumour claims that T239 was cancelled, or that T239 was never planned for Nintendo, and they're actually using another chip instead, then it's nonsense.
 
After the Direct and some thought I'm firmly team "March is the cert window"

This would explain why the talk is vague (it's probably not specific or even the same day for every developer), it puts the launch in the May-June gap between Princess Peach and Luigi's Mansion, and it gives us plenty of time for a Q1 reveal (I'm betting on January!)
 
FernandoRocker said:
I know it's just a console from a multi billion company whose sole purpose is to make money, but I'm honestly feeling kinda sad/depressed about the Switch 2 being potentially 8nm.

Thing is... the console would have to least 6-7 years in the market, and the features they use at launch, are the only features they are going to have until the Switch 3.

I know I shouldn't feel this way, but I do.
Click to expand...

Be happy while you can. It’s actually 16nm.
 
Raccoon said:
After the Direct and some thought I'm firmly team "March is the cert window"

This would explain why the talk is vague (it's probably not specific or even the same day for every developer), it puts the launch in the May-June gap between Princess Peach and Luigi's Mansion, and it gives us plenty of time for a Q1 reveal (I'm betting on January!)
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree with this, or at least something similar (conference in March maybe). It seems odd to launch it with an already announced game (Peach) but 1-3 months after makes plenty of sense with the known schedule.
 
P4bl0 said:
Re: Paper Mario TTYD



We don't talk enough about all the reflections and lighting effects used in the trailer, is this actually running on Switch 1 or some cross-gen scenario?

It looks like some RT is involved no ? If anything it gives us a look at what Nintendo future games are looking like, lot of reflections and shiny floors!

Also the Switch buttons are colored to match Super Famicom/new Nintendo 3DS colors, man I hope they don't call it Super Switch
Click to expand...

... reflections and lights are not a new invention, they existed since way longer then "RTX" was a thing.

We have a ton of examples on the switch.
There is nothing here thats special.

(Mind you, it looks good, no doubt. but we had better examples for "pushing the limits" then this one)
 
To make this clear, in case we are or might be talking about a cross-gen game ... don't try to see things that aren't there as hints it is a cross-gen / ReDraketed game.

Because these cross-gen games also have to run on Switch.
 
I had a strong feeling next March was way too early personally. Partly due to Nintendo already having announced software for 2024 (Princess Peach, LM2 HD, MP4, now Paper Mario Remake) and because if you look at Switch hardware sales in general terms it’s still selling extremely well Worldwide for a console heading into it’s eighth year. The console will also do really well this Holiday season due to Super Mario Wonder and the continued appeal / sales of Tears of the Kingdom.

People often forget a very important point to do with Nintendo’s business model which is they have always sold consoles as a means to sell software (and now Online subscriptions). There are tens of millions of children, families and more casual players who still have maybe four or five titles missing from their Switch library that they have yet to pick up due to a variety of reasons from time constraints or a lack of financial resources at the time of the games release. Once you reveal shiny new console and shiny new games you kill a lot of that desire.

Now you have to kill that desire eventually of course but go look at current Switch hardware sales. Are they down YoY? Yes and that is normal for year seven of a consoles life but compare the sales to ANY other console in it’s even fifth year never mind seventh year of release and then consider it’s never had a long term, official price cut in most countries and as a business you’d be crazy to not at least take the rest of 2023 and most of 2024 to extract every single cent of potential revenue from a still very healthy platform.

I personally expect an official price cut to Switch just before March 2024 along with a line up of classic lower priced retail games such as NSMB U Deluxe, Breath of the Wild, Smash Bros Ultimate, Mario Party and Animal Crossing. The standard console down to $249.99 and those classic games down to $39.99 to appeal to more casual and lower income families as we approach the reveal of Switch 2 in late Summer 2024.

I’m then expecting Switch 2 to be revealed in the August and then launched late September 2024 along with the next 3D Mario adventure and the cross gen release of Metroid Prime 4. Nintendo will then have 2025 to maintain momentum and guarantee the systems success with the likes of a new Mario Kart, Luigi’s Mansion, Xenoblade and the reveal of the next Smash Bros and Zelda game.

Now I should make it clear that I want Switch 2 next March I just think from a business perspective it makes more sense to use another six months to milk Switch and it’s huge user base for every cent they can then have a huge new console launch in Winter 2024.
 
TechnicalTip6578 said:
in your guys' opinion, which 3rd party company is easy to leak stuff from? asking this to know which specific company leaker we'll hear Switch 2 stuff from lol
Click to expand...

Ubisoft.

Maybe SQEX.

Imo, leaks rather happen from western devs. Normally JP devs are able to keep their mouths shut.
 
TechnicalTip6578 said:
in your guys' opinion, which 3rd party company is easy to leak stuff from? asking this to know which specific company leaker we'll hear Switch 2 stuff from lol
Click to expand...
Easily Ubisoft lol. In fact, all Switch 1 early HW leaks came from there.

I think a march/april HW reveal is very pausible, it all depends if Nintendo wants to formally announce their next system before or after current FY ends.
 
NateDrake said:
"Thinking he heard something..." the hell is this?

The mention of March was repeated numerous time and it wasn't in passing. March was stated, specifically, and a talking point at Gamescom. It came up in all conversations around the successor. The only unknown was to which it was referring -- be it launch, an announcement, a reveal, or a deadline for games to target.
Click to expand...

natedrake.png
 
P4bl0 said:
I know it's not, but this might be available on the Switch 2 also hence all the groundwork for the reflections etc.. this version runs at 30 fps on Switch 1 while the original was running 60 fps on GC

This leaves room for a Switch 2 cross release or patch
Click to expand...
The original was 480i60, which Nintendo's manuals describe as, and I quote "an effective 30 frames per second".
 
dsm said:
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to be in the gamescon presentation, see the botw demo and the matrix demo and whatever more, but then "oh yeah they talked about something on March but I was too busy buying Nintendo stock so I didn't ear it well lol". Like there's a lot of talk about March but it does not make sense to not know for what the date is. Why reveal the tech side and then be coy of this?
Click to expand...
Given this, they're probably nervous to say what March is.

Because it's big. Because it's heavy.

Because it's launch. And if someone other than Nintendo leaks the launch window Nintendo is going to, metaphorically, kill everything and everyone that even perceived their GamesCom booth.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
4chan rumor that was shared on Reddit.














Lots to chew on, thoughts ?
Click to expand...

Nothing to add here beyond what others already said, it reads like a fanfic. I stopped taking the text seriously (was already skeptical before I even began, simply because it's "4chan") as soon as it talked about nvidia and nintendo's "feelings".
 
So I'm really wondering if Nintendo might really lean in on RT as one of the consoles main gimmicks. Nvidia certainly is pushing it like crazy so it wouldn't be very surprising, seeing how they are the only console with an NV chip, for Nintendo to go ham on it. But we know the Switch 2 aint got a 4080 in it, so how crazy can they go with RT? Well, we already have examples of how huge a difference adding RT into an old game can make with Portal, Doom, and other old games getting it.

I think basically all the games shown in the recent direct are great candidates for RT on top. Perhaps the best example? Luigi's Mansion.

Meelow said:
That is shocking. By the time it releases, it would have been announced a year before the release.

Especially seeing how it's just a remaster of a 3DS game and Metroid Prime and SMRPG got a much closer announcement to release date and they are full-blown remakes, heck I wouldn't be surprised if TTYDR releases earlier in 2024 than later.

So maybe Luigi Mansion 2R was supposed to be released earlier in 2024 but got delayed or Nintendo decided to just announce it way earlier.
Click to expand...
How is this game not a super obvious choice for showcasing RT? Lighting is everything in that kind of game, and with the older assets there would be plenty of headroom for a Switch 2 to flex all it's possible RT muscle on it. Maybe it makes this late port make more sense.
 
P4bl0 said:
Why are the controls buttons on Paper Mario TTYD and Mario RPG in the Famicom/SNES color scheme? 🤔
Click to expand...
I have't seen any reply to this, but it's pretty curious to me regarding Paper Mario.
Not too much for Super Mario RPG as it already had them in the SNES version, but since Paper Mario TTYD had the GC buttons color scheme, why would they switch it to the SNES color scheme instead of a dark/grey one that matches all Joy Con/Pro controllers?

The answer is simple. It's easy.
Next gen is the Super Nintendo Switch and it's obviously going to have the SNES color scheme on the main buttons, just like the New 3DS did at its time.
 
0
mjayer said:
How is this game not a super obvious choice for showcasing RT? Lighting is everything in that kind of game, and with the older assets there would be plenty of headroom for a Switch 2 to flex all it's possible RT muscle on it. Maybe it makes this late port make more sense.
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RT Lighting is a lot more impressive (and makes more sense) in games without a fixed camera, in games like LM2 (or LM in general) the need for RT and the change it makes is more minor. I think to showcase RT the best option would be a MK8 updated version but that has low chance of happening due to MK9, so I guess BOTW or Mario Odyssey?
 
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mjayer said:
So I'm really wondering if Nintendo might really lean in on RT as one of the consoles main gimmicks.
Click to expand...
Honestly, I'd take this over cameras (unless those cameras are, as I suspect, mainly for superior motion controls.)

There's three major things on Switch 2 as regards RT, in my opinion:

You DON'T need to have super high resolution RT to use RT in GAMEPLAY, which is what excites me the most, and I hope we see it used at launch in Fluidity: Refraction.

It's a console, the first purpose built console with RT Cores (rather than accelerators, a matter of branding but you know what I mean), so you're going to have Devs with much finer, more granular control over how RT works and is presented. In theory they could be used to offload non-RT tasks if a dev wants and the peg fits the hole. It means that we'd be looking at far higher RT performance per RT core than its desktop counterparts, even if that performance is only perceived and not raw.

Three, 48 lovely delicious Tensor cores, and now we have a purpose built console with RAY RECONSTRUCTION. So it might not even NEED to cast that many rays to LOOK like it's going full throttle on raytracing.

While perhaps brave, I think Portal RTX is a very possible, perhaps even likely, launch or launch window title. A game like that targeting a dedicated piece of hardware could do wonderful things.
 
Samuspet said:
I had a strong feeling next March was way too early personally. Partly due to Nintendo already having announced software for 2024 (Princess Peach, LM2 HD, MP4, now Paper Mario Remake) and because if you look at Switch hardware sales in general terms it’s still selling extremely well Worldwide for a console heading into it’s eighth year. The console will also do really well this Holiday season due to Super Mario Wonder and the continued appeal / sales of Tears of the Kingdom.

People often forget a very important point to do with Nintendo’s business model which is they have always sold consoles as a means to sell software (and now Online subscriptions). There are tens of millions of children, families and more casual players who still have maybe four or five titles missing from their Switch library that they have yet to pick up due to a variety of reasons from time constraints or a lack of financial resources at the time of the games release. Once you reveal shiny new console and shiny new games you kill a lot of that desire.

Now you have to kill that desire eventually of course but go look at current Switch hardware sales. Are they down YoY? Yes and that is normal for year seven of a consoles life but compare the sales to ANY other console in it’s even fifth year never mind seventh year of release and then consider it’s never had a long term, official price cut in most countries and as a business you’d be crazy to not at least take the rest of 2023 and most of 2024 to extract every single cent of potential revenue from a still very healthy platform.

I personally expect an official price cut to Switch just before March 2024 along with a line up of classic lower priced retail games such as NSMB U Deluxe, Breath of the Wild, Smash Bros Ultimate, Mario Party and Animal Crossing. The standard console down to $249.99 and those classic games down to $39.99 to appeal to more casual and lower income families as we approach the reveal of Switch 2 in late Summer 2024.

I’m then expecting Switch 2 to be revealed in the August and then launched late September 2024 along with the next 3D Mario adventure and the cross gen release of Metroid Prime 4. Nintendo will then have 2025 to maintain momentum and guarantee the systems success with the likes of a new Mario Kart, Luigi’s Mansion, Xenoblade and the reveal of the next Smash Bros and Zelda game.

Now I should make it clear that I want Switch 2 next March I just think from a business perspective it makes more sense to use another six months to milk Switch and it’s huge user base for every cent they can then have a huge new console launch in Winter 2024.
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If the games are in indicator, then switch should have waited another 6-12 months cause 3DS still got games of that caliber.

You dont want to wait till there is nothing to hype up the console.
Prior to this year, they had long announced, fabled games, a chest of easy ports from Wii U that most people did not play, and games where people where like "thats what i wished for since i was little".
Im playing it up, but the current slate is simply... more subdued, really mario heavy with a lot of remakes. In a time, where people invest in eco systems, you don't want people to wander off to the next one cause you did not provide, you want to have a smooth transition.

And them waiting till there are no games anymore would lead to exactly that. So yeah, there has to be a crossover period for at least 6 months, probably more a year. The first year will be: big hitters Switch 2, small to medium games both, and most third party switch 2 only, since its getting more and more of an time and resource investment to scale the games down to switch (except stuff like Just dance obviously)
 
P4bl0 said:


Lot of fans are bummed because they were expecting "60fps like the original"
Click to expand...

It looks like Origami King which is a 30fps game , thankfully the game should release close to Switch 2 launch so a 60fps should be an option (if you can get a Switch 2). TTYD HD is not a port with just better resolution
 
P4bl0 said:


Lot of fans are bummed because they were expecting "60fps like the original"
Click to expand...

They're basing this on a trailer a year out from launch, on a console that only outputs progressive, and they're getting upset about it?

If someone could find some more details, I can tell for sure that TTYD (GCN) had 480i60 and 480p30, but I can't find anything that confirms it ran at 480p60 on original hardware. With no exceptions that I'm aware of, TTYD (GCN) had alternative settings in two regions: 60hz (576i) in Europe, and 30FPS (480p) in Japan/NA. With the defaults being 576i50 (in Europe) and 480i60 (in NA/JP).
 
P4bl0 said:


Lot of fans are bummed because they were expecting "60fps like the original"
Click to expand...

And for good reason. I was already burned out with the too-much-Mario feeling the moment it showed, and then I realized it was 30fps. Huge bummer.

Also no, 480i60 isn't the same as 480p30. It's a different way to output the image but not the frames
 
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