If the games are in indicator, then switch should have waited another 6-12 months cause 3DS still got games of that caliber.
You dont want to wait till there is nothing to hype up the console.
Prior to this year, they had long announced, fabled games, a chest of easy ports from Wii U that most people did not play, and games where people where like "thats what i wished for since i was little".
Im playing it up, but the current slate is simply... more subdued, really mario heavy with a lot of remakes. In a time, where people invest in eco systems, you don't want people to wander off to the next one cause you did not provide, you want to have a smooth transition.
And them waiting till there are no games anymore would lead to exactly that. So yeah, there has to be a crossover period for at least 6 months, probably more a year. The first year will be: big hitters Switch 2, small to medium games both, and most third party switch 2 only, since its getting more and more of an time and resource investment to scale the games down to switch (except stuff like Just dance obviously)
That was a very different situation as WiiU had completely failed and 3DS was their dedicated handheld at the time and carrying the entire load of the company on it’s back. They needed a replacement out to market for both home and handheld consoles ASAP then we got Switch which was also by the way held back from Winter 2016 and moved to March 2017 so Nintendo had enough games to ensure momentum for it’s first year which obviously worked a treat.
There is no such rush to market needed for Switch 2. Switch sales will not collapse in the coming year (especially with a probable $50 price cut and budget range of software) and like I said their main revenue stream by far is software, subscription services and accessories not console hardware especially at this stage of a consoles life cycle with the way chips no longer get much, much cheaper as the console hardware ages.
3DS sales had also completely collapsed Worldwide by the six months leading up to Switch’s March 2017 release. They desperately needed a new product to market. Again it’s a completely different situation at the moment.
Switch is currently selling ~250,000-300,000 consoles a month in Japan alone and that is PRE holiday season. They will sell another 5 million Switch’s in Japan alone before September 2024. There is no need to rush Switch 2 out in March 2024.
Nintendo do not need to release Switch 2 before Winter 2024 and they will be closing in on 140+ million Switch console sold by the end of 2024 to boot.
In short this is in no way, shape or form even a remotely similar situation to the painful transition between WiiU/3DS and Switch. This is also to say nothing of the loss of Mr Iwata and the massive internal restructuring it took to unify Nintendo’s development resources towards a single hardware platform.
I will take as many bets as offered for the likely $400 price tag of Switch 2 that it will NOT release in March 2024 but rather late Autumn/ Winter 2024. Is it because I’m intelligent or have some unique foresight? Not at all… All you have to do is realise they do not currently have the correct line up of heavy hitting first party games ready which is necessary to launch and maintain a brand new next gen consoles momentum for it’s first year. Namely big name games appealing to the core gamer you want in years 1-3 for a new platform. Nintendo are absolutely TERRIFIED of this transition and rightly so. They need to make sure they don’t mess it up and leave themselves with a software drought similar to year one of WiiU!
What games are they going to release outside of 3D Mario (which potency will be reduced to a degree considering they will have released another mainline Super Mario game in Wonder just five months before it) and Metroid Prime 4 (which potency again will be reduced as it will be cross gen) to keep the consoles momentum throughout 2024?
Now compare that to releasing Switch 2 in Winter 2024. Suddenly there’s a year between Mario games (which also lets Wonder breath and sell the 10+ million it will in its first year without being kneecapped by a new 3D Mario game five months into its release).
Prime 4 is polished for a further six months compared to a March 2024 release and really pushes Switch 2 visually while polishing the original Switch version so it doesn’t end up like the Xbone/PS4 version of Cyberpunk and upset original Switch owners.
At that point there’s now the possibility of a new Luigi’s Mansion for late October, a new Xenoblade/new Monolith IP for early November and the chance of the Ultimate Mario Kart game for mid November with the likes of Yoshi, Splatoon and the WiiU Zelda collection at 4k for Spring 2025 which leads nicely into the E3 Direct of June 2025 where you reveal the next Zelda, Animal Crossing and Smash Bros along with a few surprises to keep hype and momentum for Switch 2 at maximum.
Then AT LAST we can start speculating on the Switch 2 Pro xD.