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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Which rumors? The Bloomberg one from early last year that was very clearly debunked when the OLED model was announced?
Virtually everyone talking about this device before Bloomberg started mentioning 2022 as the likely release timing early last year.


You know, I did think you were talking about a 1-2+ year delay, yes. Maybe I misread your initial posts, sorry about that. I agree we might probably see a 3-6 month delay, maybe to next March probably at the latest. I don't see them pushing it to next holiday season and risking their total hardware sales to drop below ~15M since it will definitely be supply constrained.

Yes, Bloomberg ones, but if I recall 1st time stronger Switch was mentioned back in 2019...and 2022. like release date was start mention only after OLED model is officially announced,
before that, 2021. even 2020. was mentioned like possible year of release of stronger Switch version.

We will see, next FY (April 2022.-March 2023.) will hardly be below around 20m even without revision, even following year will be hardly be less than around 15m units (again whitout new version), saying that I expect launch some time in 2023. (latest in March 2024.).
 
Yes, Bloomberg ones, but if I recall 1st time stronger Switch was mentioned back in 2019...and 2022. like release date was start mention only after OLED model is officially announced,
before that, 2021. even 2020. was mentioned like possible year of release of stronger Switch version.

We will see, next FY (April 2022.-March 2023.) will hardly be below around 20m even without revision, even following year will be hardly be less than around 15m units (again whitout new version), saying that I expect launch some time in 2023. (latest in March 2024.).
The 2019 was about the Mariko revision/ lite.

It is indeed likely higher clock speeds was in the cards for those models, until it was ultimately decided on not pursuing this. It would explain why it has (in theory) faster, more expensive lpddrx memory, rather than adding some battery life which would have been quite good even without it. The inclusion makes more sense, if they were considering clocking it faster.

The 2022 rumours were obviously just conflating the oled with the diss model.
 
Yeah, I'm not discounting the possibility that circumstances might line up for Nintendo to want to migrate manufacturing processes. Maybe the 8nm process is consuming too much power, or maybe they just figured the continued high sales of Switch warranted pushing things back. But absent of any evidence for this, I don't think we should expect it.

Also, I wouldn't say the chip shortage is much of a reason to migrate from 8nm, as it's probably the most easily available process for Nintendo and Nvidia by a comfortable margin. Nvidia already have a large majority of the 8nm manufacturing allocation, and they're migrating their consumer GPUs over to TSMC 5nm later this year, which will free up plenty of capacity for Dane.



Maybe I'm placing too much weight to my own anecdotal experience, but I've personally not had much difficulty finding the OLED model when I've looked (in UK, for reference). Although to be honest I haven't been looking too often, I'm trying to avoid the impulse purchase! I came close once, but managed to pull myself back from the brink.



Yeah, I think Intel's misadventures in moving on from 14nm would count as drastic alright! I think that's basically it, though, in that you'd only really look at migrating to another node if the one you're working on simply isn't hitting expectations, either in yields, performance or power consumption. Yields shouldn't be an issue for 8nm, and although power consumption is the limiting factor for Nintendo, there shouldn't be too many surprises on that front for a process as mature as 8nm.



I don't think this is "evil", it's just a standard mid-gen upgrade/"pro" model. The technical jump required to make DLSS practical also means the minimum viable hardware to get DLSS at 4K (even just at 30fps) is still a pretty comfortable upgrade. You're probably looking at at least 2x performance jump on the GPU side pre-DLSS, just for a GPU config with enough tensor core grunt to handle the DLSS, plus the general benefit you get from moving from Maxwell to Ampere. On the CPU front, even with just 3 cores available for games, which is the minimum for compatibility, and conservative clock speeds (say 1.2GHz), the jump from A57 to A78 is a big one, with a 2.3x clock-for-clock performance boost even before any clock speed increases. Combined with the use of DLSS, it's a big perceived jump in performance for a mid-gen upgrade, probably matching Xbox One to One X in visual fidelity increase, and far beyond when it comes to the jump in CPU performance.

Also, if we've got a system which is capable of hitting 4K output in any form (even only with DLSS, and only at 30fps), then there shouldn't be any reason to see games running at 540p-720p output resolutions in portable mode. That's a 9x decrease in pixels, and the performance difference between portable and docked shouldn't be anywhere near that much, more likely close to 2x, maybe 3x if they really push GPU clocks when docked. In that case, there should absolutely be performance to run DLSS in portable mode to a 1080p screen, although with closer to 720p pre-DLSS rendering resolution likely in most cases.

If they really wanted to be evil they'd release a much more powerful revision based on Dane, and give it an IPS screen when the OLED model's on the market with less powerful hardware!
I'm having trouble visualizing Dane only being 2x more powerful than current switch models in GPU without DLSS. They would have to seriously underclock it.Isn't 8nm Samsung ampere just as performant and energy efficient as the AMD Vega GPUs using 7nm nodes?

What you are about to read is really hypothetical. Let's say that Nvidia and Nintendo make a custom 15 watts variant of Orion NX, while in comparison the original Orion NX runs up to 50 watts.

To reach 15 watts:

-Dane gets half the GPU cores of Orion NX (which is 4 TFLOPs at 1Ghz max GPU), but clocked at 768Ghz, making it 2.6x lower than max clocks.
-Include DLSS and maybe some RT cores
-CPU is a a 6-8 core A78s, clocked 1-1.5 GHz (vs 2GHz max clocks). Maybe A78c to reduce power or the same A78s on Orion NX. Have all the cache too?
-8-12GB of 128GB lpddr5
-128GB storage
-take out AI and camera stuff it doesn't need
-slightly bigger battery than current switch models
-gyro, nfc and other tech stuff from switch

Pretty sure this is possible on 8nm. 1.5 TFLOPs docked/614 TFLOPs handheld GPU, 6-8 core A78s at 1-1.5Ghz, 8-12 GB LPDDR5 RAM at 102GB/s and 128GB fast storage ($400) at 15 watts max.

600 GFLOPs mode would be 5-7 watts? I dunno.Hell a 600 GFLOPs handheld could probably give us a good or better of a battery life as Mariko switch models.

*Remember, steam deck is going up to 1.6 TFLOPs GPU and also up to 3Ghz CPUs I'm 4 cores in a 15 watts perfomance window. So I am low balling it with the low end 600 GFLOPs clock. If it's anything like Switch's highest clock (460MHz), we can see 900 GFLOPs on handheld, which would trade blows with xbone base. But at least in docked mode, it will perform better then Steam Deck. It will be interesting how Nintendo and Nvidia handles this.

And if they actually decide to make a handheld variant with docked specs for once (as a revision with 5nm node or better) at 15 watts (while being able to dock as well). THAT would be interesting.



Would be interesting how the next switch model compares to this. Somebody save this post 😐
 
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My thinking is that we are in an unique situation with COVID and global chain disruptions, so this is the time were we can expect never done before changes in production and timings.

I was on board on Switch 4k in 2022 train until it became that the chip shortage will not be over any time soon.
As far as Samsung's concerned, I imagine how good the yields are is a much bigger factor than the global chip shortage in terms of migrating to a more advanced process node.

I mentioned yields, because the Korea Herald reported that Nvidia initially planned on using Samsung's 7LPP process node for the fabrication of the consumer Ampere GPUs according to Yoo Eung-joon, the chief of Nvidia Korea.
And considering Andrei Frumusanu mentioned that the binning of the Exynos 990 units Anandtech received are apparently bad, with the binning of most Exynos 990 units out there being as bad, or worse, I think there's a very strong possibility that Nvidia ultimately decided to use Samsung's 8N process node for the fabrication of consumer Ampere GPUs shortly after the Korea Herald's report was published due to Samsung's 7LPP process node having not so good yields, especially with GA102 being taped out using Samsung's 8N process node more than half a year later (more than 8 months later to be precise) after the Korea Herald's report was published.

As for Samsung's 5LPE process node and/or Samsung's 5LPP process nodes, Business Korea reported that some of Samsung's 5LPE process node and/or Samsung's 5LPP process nodes have yields below 50%, which I believe seems to be strongly validated by a Xiaomi executive's comments about Snapdragon 780G being discontinued relatively quickly due to not having enough capacity. Of course, at least Samsung's 5LPE process node does seem to have better yields than Samsung's 7LPP process node since there are still hardware equipped with the Snapdragon 888 being released (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S21 FE 5G). (There's a rumour about Qualcomm using Samsung's 4LPX process node, which is basically Samsung's 5LPP process node, for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, which I'm leaning towards being accurate, especially since there's no significant difference between the Snapdragon 888 and the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 when comparing the CPU on Geekbench 5.)

As for TSMC, there's no denying that TSMC's advanced process nodes are much better than Samsung's advanced process nodes across the board in terms of performance and power efficiency. However, securing enough capacity for TSMC's advanced process node is extremely difficult and probably extremely expensive since demand for TSMC's advanced process node is absurdly high, coupled by the fact that Nvidia probably doesn't have as much preferential treatment from TSMC as Apple, Mediatek, AMD, and etc., considering Nvidia's only #6 in the list of TSMC's largest customers. In fact, unlike TSMC's top 3 largest customers, Nvidia has to spend significant amounts of money in prepayments to TSMC to secure enough capacity for TSMC's N5 process node. Hopper and Lovelace (specifically high-end Lovelace GPUs for now) are currently rumoured to be fabricated using TSMC's N5 process node. And I don't know if Nvidia considers the margins for Dane high enough to warrant using TSMC's N5 process node for fabricating Dane, at least without making Dane at least considerably more expensive.

Nate said that launch timing depends from "supply constraints", it could easily be later launch means more inventory and consoles ready for launch and that Nintendo could easily afford internal delay because Switch is selling great and they will end FY with another record breaking year, espacially if they doing full next gen launch so they need more consoles for launch and 1st year.
There's no guarantee that would necessarily be the case, considering there's still the possibility that hardware sales will continue to decrease across the board, which is what happened during April 2021 - December 2021 according to Nintendo's own earning release (p 9); and Nintendo also had to decrease the number of Nintendo Switch units projected to be sold from 24 million units to 23 million units (p 8).
 
The op has literally a timeline of every rumours detailled but we keep arguing for pages over twisted or vague recollection of them.
 
I think we are right on the money, assuming Nintendo is not doing "Generations" as we are used to. I think the next Switch model, if it is the Orin/Dane one, will actually live alongside the current ones, wich will get a significant pricedrop. The Oled might completely replace the non oled model though,. So you'd have "Lite" ($129-$149), "Oled" ($199-$229) and the "4K" model ($299-$349, $399 worst case). After that, we likely get an Lite based on Orin to replace the OG Lite. Crossgen will live on significantly longer than before, at least for 1st party because i also think Nintendo would not mandate OG Switch compatibility to be included in every game.

But then, this is Nintendo. They might do something no one sees coming!
 
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The 2019 was about the Mariko revision/ lite.

It is indeed likely higher clock speeds was in the cards for those models, until it was ultimately decided on not pursuing this. It would explain why it has (in theory) faster, more expensive lpddrx memory, rather than adding some battery life which would have been quite good even without it. The inclusion makes more sense, if they were considering clocking it faster.

The 2022 rumours were obviously just conflating the oled with the diss model.

No, talk started about 4K Switch was after V2 revision launch.
Switch 4K/DLSS was mentioned before 2021, even some from beginning of 2020. and they were talking about 2020. and 2021. release.


There's no guarantee that would necessarily be the case, considering there's still the possibility that hardware sales will continue to decrease across the board, which is what happened during April 2021 - December 2021 according to Nintendo's own earning release (p 9); and Nintendo also had to decrease the number of Nintendo Switch units projected to be sold from 24 million units to 23 million units (p 8).

Nothing is 100% certain with chip shortages even Sony cut down PS5 forecast quite a lot.
 
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No, talk started about 4K Switch was after V2 revision launch.

Switch 4K/DLSS was mentioned before 2021, even some from beginning of 2020.
And we were told that devs got 4k devkits in late 2020. Nothing in that rumor suggested it would be out in 2021, the article itself connected that rumor with the (accurate) report of a new model launching in 2021. The initial rumor about them asking developers to make their games 4k ready was not at all tied to any launch year.

The OP of this thread has all of the relevant rumors on a very handy timeline.
 
And we were told that devs got 4k devkits in late 2020. Nothing in that rumor suggested it would be out in 2021, the article itself connected that rumor with the (accurate) report of a new model launching in 2021. The initial rumor about them asking developers to make their games 4k ready was not at all tied to any launch year.

The OP of this thread has all of the relevant rumors on a very handy timeline.
Yeah, I do recommend looking back at that btw for anyone new who reads this or who hasn't checked in for a while btw.

Either way, all the info we have at the moment indicates a most likely range of 2H 2022 to March 2023 for release of the system.

From both hardware and software ends.
 
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And we were told that devs got 4k devkits in late 2020. Nothing in that rumor suggested it would be out in 2021, the article itself connected that rumor with the (accurate) report of a new model launching in 2021. The initial rumor about them asking developers to make their games 4k ready was not at all tied to any launch year.

The OP of this thread has all of the relevant rumors on a very handy timeline.

My point is that 4K/DLSS talk was before 2021. because other guy suggest that those rumors were about Mariko Switch.
Actually If you read those rumors, you will see that 2020. or 2021. are mentioning like year of release for stronger Switch.
 
My point is that 4K/DLSS talk was before 2021. because other guy suggest that those rumors were about Mariko Switch.
Actually If you read those rumors, you will see that 2020. or 2021. are mentioning like year of release for stronger Switch.
Nobody (besides an analyst making a prediction) mentioned 2020. That never happened.

2021 was mentioned a few times in late 2020 but that was almost certainly due to conflating the OLED model with the knowledge of 4k devkits existing.
 
Nobody (besides an analyst making a prediction) mentioned 2020. That never happened.

2021 was mentioned a few times in late 2020 but that was almost certainly due to conflating the OLED model with the knowledge of 4k devkits existing.

Well you have here:

"That rumour didn't last long. Stories last week suggested that the long awaited Switch Pro would arrive in 2020, with Nintendo bringing the fight to the next-gen Microsoft and Sony console launches. It all sounded rather unlikely and Nintendo was quick to dismiss the story. "

And here you Bloomberg itself, saying 2021. launch


Also, before Switch Oled was announced, I remember very clearly that almost hole thread (also Future Nintendo hardware thread) on Resetera belived based on rumors about 2021. release for stronger Switch version, only after Switch Oled was announced people start telling different story...and now we teling story that 2022. was always should release new hardware, when we miss 2022. people will start talking about 2023. like certain year of release..
 
Well you have here:

"That rumour didn't last long. Stories last week suggested that the long awaited Switch Pro would arrive in 2020, with Nintendo bringing the fight to the next-gen Microsoft and Sony console launches. It all sounded rather unlikely and Nintendo was quick to dismiss the story. "

And here you Bloomberg itself, saying 2021. launch


Also, before Switch Oled was announced, I remember very clearly that almost hole thread (also Future Nintendo hardware thread) on Resetera belived based on rumors about 2021. release for stronger Switch version, only after Switch Oled was announced people start telling different story...and now we teling story that 2022. was always should release new hardware, when we miss 2022. people will start talking about 2023. like certain year of release..
Bloomberg and other indsiders thought the OLED would be the dlls model, and most people here believed them yes. Nobody is denying that.
 
Well you have here:

"That rumour didn't last long. Stories last week suggested that the long awaited Switch Pro would arrive in 2020, with Nintendo bringing the fight to the next-gen Microsoft and Sony console launches. It all sounded rather unlikely and Nintendo was quick to dismiss the story. "
That quote does not appear in that link.
And here you Bloomberg itself, saying 2021. launch


Also, before Switch Oled was announced, I remember very clearly that almost hole thread (also Future Nintendo hardware thread) on Resetera belived based on rumors about 2021. release for stronger Switch version, only after Switch Oled was announced people start telling different story...and now we teling story that 2022. was always should release new hardware, when we miss 2022. people will start talking about 2023. like certain year of release..
As Hermii said nobody is denying that it was reported to launch in 2021 when it was conflated with the OLED model.
 
In 2019, WSJ reported on two new models coming, one being more powerful, that's what we're talking about relative to mariko.
In 2021, until the pre e3 oled bait, we were told 2022 release, one reason being the soc not being taped out.
 
In 2019, WSJ reported on two new models coming, one being more powerful, that's what we're talking about relative to mariko.
In 2021, until the pre e3 oled bait, we were told 2022 release, one reason being the soc not being taped out.
When you put it like that…. Timing wise… I can see what @BlackTangMaster and @Thraktor meant by a possible change to a newer node.

Nintendo opting to spend for a new node to enable a “cheaper” or “easier” process of getting a die shrink a few years later I can see happening. Nintendo opting to use a node and then spending a lot to have it on a different node only to position it as a revision of sort is something I can’t see them do due to it making less business sense

In 2019 two models were reported, but in 2021 we had news that one of the supposed aforementioned models hasn’t been taped out yet. It could be that it wasn’t taped out because Nintendo decided “hmm, let’s have this on a node that allows us to work with our future endeavors in mind and this fits with our overall plans for the platform without having to spend an unnecessary funds mid way for it”

For a chip that is supposedly of this size, a tape out taking this long is rather unheard of I think. Unless something went pretty badly.

Although not a SoC, nVidia had the 30 series GPUs taped out and for sale in less than a year, a few months really at least according to the tweet from Kopite7kimi that included a Tegra on 8nm DUV.

But, if I’m not mistaken, the Tegra X1 in the switch was taped out mid 2016 for a planned release in 2016 that was delayed to 2017.

Tegra Orin was announced back in 2019, the same year that the reporting of a newer model that is stronger came out to the party. A new model was datamined prior that resulted in the OLED model coming out.


To conclude, due to what is presumably a chip this small (suited for the form factor of the switch) taking this long, and we already heard of rumblings about it since way back before the info of tape out happened, it’s very possible that in this time Nintendo opted to fund for a change to the node. Nintendo had 2020 which was pandemic year, a delay could have happened that pushes the chip to much later than expected date of say, 21 to say 23-24. 3-4 years could be enough to do that if they did in fact do that.


This does not necessarily intervene with the information of developer kits supposedly being out, contrary to that. It could be early dev kits based on the old hardware (8nm) that can function fine if the new hardware will have the same parts or function but on a better node (ex: 7nm). So long as the dev kit is clocked appropriately or what have you for development.

Then again, these are devkits, Nintendo could replace them as they please or remove them if they scrap the successor entirely.

They don’t really need to go that far out to a newer node to have enough to where they can shrink it a few years down. 7nm and an eventual 5nm or hell, “4nm” is more than enough to give them more efficiency if they want (or a perf boost by clock it higher).



Edit: I am not saying 8nm is a bad node! It’s fine, but I would not rule out a 7nm or 6nm node really.




As an aside, @brainchild will you be at GDC this year? And do you need to go to gather more info on how mesh shaders plays a part with memory bandwidth utilization? (Or do you already know that? lol) I’m curious is to know if it being a more efficient pipeline for geometry culling, if it somehow alleviates the memory bandwidth situation a bit or if that’s difficult to answer. Unsure if my question is clear. This is more off topic with the current discussion, but curious on the MS and memory bandwidth here. If we are to assume the next switch has this feature on the hardware level but also concern with memory bandwidth, this could be one of the things that aids in that department to use less overall. But I could be reading it wrong since it’s a method for geometry culling .


Long winded!
 
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As an aside, @brainchild will you be at GDC this year? And do you need to go to gather more info on how mesh shaders plays a part with memory bandwidth utilization? (Or do you already know that? lol) I’m curious is to know if it being a more efficient pipeline for geometry culling, if it somehow alleviates the memory bandwidth situation a bit or if that’s difficult to answer. Unsure if my question is clear. This is more off topic with the current discussion, but curious on the MS and memory bandwidth here. If we are to assume the next switch has this feature on the hardware level but also concern with memory bandwidth, this could be one of the things that aids in that department to use less overall. But I could be reading it wrong since it’s a method for geometry culling .


Long winded!
Well based on what we can tell with Nanite, I do say it helps with Memory Bandwidth somewhat, at least looking at Nanite on lower-end cards and the Series S via the Matrix Demo.

Primarily due to dynamic LoD via Nanite seemingly removing the need to stream in various different LoD assets and doing it on its own.
 
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When you put it like that…. Timing wise… I can see what @BlackTangMaster and @Thraktor meant by a possible change to a newer node.

Nintendo opting to spend for a new node to enable a “cheaper” or “easier” process of getting a die shrink a few years later I can see happening. Nintendo opting to use a node and then spending a lot to have it on a different node only to position it as a revision of sort is something I can’t see them do due to it making less business sense

In 2019 two models were reported, but in 2021 we had news that one of the supposed aforementioned models hasn’t been taped out yet. It could be that it wasn’t taped out because Nintendo decided “hmm, let’s have this on a node that allows us to work with our future endeavors in mind and this fits with our overall plans for the platform without having to spend an unnecessary funds mid way for it”

For a chip that is supposedly of this size, a tape out taking this long is rather unheard of I think. Unless something went pretty badly.

Although not a SoC, nVidia had the 30 series GPUs taped out and for sale in less than a year, a few months really at least according to the tweet from Kopite7kimi that included a Tegra on 8nm DUV.

But, if I’m not mistaken, the Tegra X1 in the switch was taped out mid 2016 for a planned release in 2016 that was delayed to 2017.

Tegra Orin was announced back in 2019, the same year that the reporting of a newer model that is stronger came out to the party. A new model was datamined prior that resulted in the OLED model coming out.


To conclude, due to what is presumably a chip this small (suited for the form factor of the switch) taking this long, and we already heard of rumblings about it since way back before the info of tape out happened, it’s very possible that in this time Nintendo opted to fund for a change to the node. Nintendo had 2020 which was pandemic year, a delay could have happened that pushes the chip to much later than expected date of say, 21 to say 23-24. 3-4 years could be enough to do that if they did in fact do that.


This does not necessarily intervene with the information of developer kits supposedly being out, contrary to that. It could be early dev kits based on the old hardware (8nm) that can function fine if the new hardware will have the same parts or function but on a better node (ex: 7nm). So long as the dev kit is clocked appropriately or what have you for development.

Then again, these are devkits, Nintendo could replace them as they please or remove them if they scrap the successor entirely.

They don’t really need to go that far out to a newer node to have enough to where they can shrink it a few years down. 7nm and an eventual 5nm or hell, “4nm” is more than enough to give them more efficiency if they want (or a perf boost by clock it higher).



Edit: I am not saying 8nm is a bad node! It’s fine, but I would not rule out a 7nm or 6nm node really.




As an aside, @brainchild will you be at GDC this year? And do you need to go to gather more info on how mesh shaders plays a part with memory bandwidth utilization? (Or do you already know that? lol) I’m curious is to know if it being a more efficient pipeline for geometry culling, if it somehow alleviates the memory bandwidth situation a bit or if that’s difficult to answer. Unsure if my question is clear. This is more off topic with the current discussion, but curious on the MS and memory bandwidth here. If we are to assume the next switch has this feature on the hardware level but also concern with memory bandwidth, this could be one of the things that aids in that department to use less overall. But I could be reading it wrong since it’s a method for geometry culling .


Long winded!
The problem with this is it's much more likely the 2019 rumors of a more powerful model were referring to some early tests with Mariko. There's no real reason to think they're connected to the current rumors.
 
The problem with this is it's much more likely the 2019 rumors of a more powerful model were referring to some early tests with Mariko. There's no real reason to think they're connected to the current rumors.
Yeah, I do say the main thing that likely held back Mariko was trying to push the Memory and CPU which led to them being dissatisfied.

the A57s are just...not really great, people already were complaining about the CPUs for the Last-Gen Consoles, and the Switch's CPU not only is half the cores, but the cores themselves are weaker than the Jaguar cores in the OG Xbox One.
 
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As an aside, @brainchild will you be at GDC this year? And do you need to go to gather more info on how mesh shaders plays a part with memory bandwidth utilization? (Or do you already know that? lol) I’m curious is to know if it being a more efficient pipeline for geometry culling, if it somehow alleviates the memory bandwidth situation a bit or if that’s difficult to answer. Unsure if my question is clear. This is more off topic with the current discussion, but curious on the MS and memory bandwidth here. If we are to assume the next switch has this feature on the hardware level but also concern with memory bandwidth, this could be one of the things that aids in that department to use less overall. But I could be reading it wrong since it’s a method for geometry culling .

Between my 9-5 job, school, my projects, and taking care of my kids, I don't think I'll have time to attend it this year, but we'll see.

As for mesh shaders, I'm aware of the memory bandwidth reduction benefits with mesh shading; increasing the amount of vertex re-use and subsequently minimizing allocations will indeed reduce overall memory bandwidth. However, this doesn't entirely mitigate bandwidth issues, it's simply another tool in the box. The fewer means you have to solve a problem the more cumbersome the development experience can be, and I'm trying to avoid that as much as possible.
 
The problem with this is it's much more likely the 2019 rumors of a more powerful model were referring to some early tests with Mariko. There's no real reason to think they're connected to the current rumors.
I wouldn't count on that as definitive per se, the rumors/reports of a much stronger switch in the work stretches way far back to 2017 where there was supposed to be a different soc, if I'm not mistaken Nikkei is the one who reported this. That doesn't mean that the chip they could have been testing isn't Mariko, but that would have been sometime in 2018, as Nintendo was in a position where they were on a lower position and on a wrong foot coming from the Wii U which was not as confident in 2017 (let alone 2016 which is when they were supposed to release it). They had no reason to prepare to continue with something like a die shrink that far back already when the 16nm already came out, they could have spent the resources back then. And Nintendo would have prime access to nVidia's roadmaps well ahead of the public.
Between my 9-5 job, school, my projects, and taking care of my kids, I don't think I'll have time to attend it this year, but we'll see.

As for mesh shaders, I'm aware of the memory bandwidth reduction benefits with mesh shading; increasing the amount of vertex re-use and subsequently minimizing allocations will indeed reduce overall memory bandwidth. However, this doesn't entirely mitigate bandwidth issues, it's simply another tool in the box. The fewer means you have to solve a problem the more cumbersome the development experience can be, and I'm trying to avoid that as much as possible.
Hm, I see, thank you. Would having access to the faster on die memory like on the Xbox or Wii U be something that you would dedicate for this or would it still be troublesome with the feature overall on a larger scale? This is completely speculative btw.
 
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In 2019 two models were reported, but in 2021 we had news that one of the supposed aforementioned models hasn’t been taped out yet. It could be that it wasn’t taped out
No, I was talking about the lite and the revision with the 2019 mention.
And if Mochizuki can mix oled and 4k switch, I have no doubt this more powerful model back then was just the revision.
 
No, I was talking about the lite and the revision with the 2019 mention.
And if Mochizuki can mix oled and 4k switch, I have no doubt this more powerful model back then was just the revision.
I wouldn’t be so sure, if I’m not mistaken the other chip from 2017 that was rumored also mentioned having more RAM and was significantly more powerful, it’s what spurred the whole “Switch Pro” discussion in the first place.

We wouldn’t really be here now in the same way if it wasn’t for that :p
 
I wouldn’t be so sure, if I’m not mistaken the other chip from 2017 that was rumored also mentioned having more RAM and was significantly more powerful, it’s what spurred the whole “Switch Pro” discussion in the first place.

We wouldn’t really be here now in the same way if it wasn’t for that :p
Huh? That was always understood to be Mariko.
 
I wouldn’t be so sure, if I’m not mistaken the other chip from 2017 that was rumored also mentioned having more RAM and was significantly more powerful, it’s what spurred the whole “Switch Pro” discussion in the first place.

We wouldn’t really be here now in the same way if it wasn’t for that :p
Mariko has support for more ram, and technically has better ram even though it’s downcloked. If we ever had a shot at getting a pro, it would have been an upclocked Mariko.
 
I know this is a little off topic. But how would a console only version of Dane compare to ps5 and series x?
It wouldn’t. Regardless of form factor, power, and cooling, there’s only so far a mobile-first SoC can be pushed.
 
Huh? That was always understood to be Mariko.
Mariko has support for more ram, and technically has better ram even though it’s downcloked. If we ever had a shot at getting a pro, it would have been an upclocked Mariko.
This is why I’m saying, I would not be so sure of this, why would Nintendo have a 16 nm version of a chip ready to go for platform they were not so sure of all the success on yet during the time that they came off of the Wii U and do so that far from the release of the lite/V2 model? This is in 2016/2017, not 2018 or early 2019.


I wouldn’t discredit that it could have been early testing of Mariko, but I also wouldn’t say it was definitely mariko the only thing they were testing. They were putting the switch as some sort of “third pillar” like the DS was to the GBA and supporting the 3DS and switch at the same time.

And again, I should stress that Nintendo is one of the special partners for nVidia, they would have more information on NVidia’s internal roadmaps way before we even see the public one.
 
I know this is a little off topic. But how would a console only version of Dane compare to ps5 and series x?
Depending on clocks the leap in CPU power could be much bigger than the leap seen from PS4/XBONE to PS5/XBOX series which would close the gap relatively speaking. GPU would be highly dependent on clocks and how DLSS performs by speculation is 1.5 to 2TF nvidia flops before DLSS.

That said they don't need to match those specs, just be modern enough to receive versions of the latest games. Because everything is going to be released relative to low to mid tier PC specs which Dane Switch will easily match and outperform once you adjust for console specific optimizations games would perform much better just as Switch is easily outperforming any 400 Gflop nvida GPU in terms of games it can run.
 
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This is why I’m saying, I would not be so sure of this, why would Nintendo have a 16 nm version of a chip ready to go for platform they were not so sure of all the success on yet during the time that they came off of the Wii U and do so that far from the release of the lite/V2 model? This is in 2016/2017, not 2018 or early 2019.


I wouldn’t discredit that it could have been early testing of Mariko, but I also wouldn’t say it was definitely mariko the only thing they were testing. They were putting the switch as some sort of “third pillar” like the DS was to the GBA and supporting the 3DS and switch at the same time.

And again, I should stress that Nintendo is one of the special partners for nVidia, they would have more information on NVidia’s internal roadmaps way before we even see the public one.
What are you referring to in 2016/2017? There was no indication of Mariko at that point, the only indicator of any increased performance was a Foxconn leak about them testing much higher clocks on the TX1.
 
I know this is a little off topic. But how would a console only version of Dane compare to ps5 and series x?
Well, let me refer you to
So TL;DR?
  • CPU:
    • Immensely more powerful than the current Switch and over double the power of last-gen CPUs, but highly hinges on clock speed and how close it is to PS5/Series S|X CPU-wise depending on A78C's improvements and the final clock.
  • GPU:
    • 3-4x as powerful as the current Switch, while being a decent bit ahead of the OG PS4 before DLSS, jumping ahead of the Pro-Consoles post-DLSS.
I say that system with DLSS, RT that would likely beat the Series S's RT capability, would be fully capable of getting modern ports as a lot of the excess processing power in the PS5/Series X is mostly going to render native 4k, and/or compensating for AMD's lackluster Ray Accelerators, problems Dane wouldn't have because DLSS covers for resolution, meaning they only need to hit 720p to get 4K output with DLSS ultra Performance, and the RT cores are far better than AMD's Ray Accelerators.
So it's a case of it can fair pretty well, it just depends on the developer optimizing well with DLSS and the hardware in mind.

If not, it will tread closer to Series S territory after DLSS.

And I feel the CPU point is something that we likely don't need to worry too much about because I don't think that the Next-Gen systems are going to max out CPU usage for a fair bit, if at all, at least gameplay mechanic-wise.

The main thing is that Dane doesn't need to match the PS5/Series X hardware-wise, because the main thing for it will be upscaling the image more or less.
So look at it like this
  • The PS5 Renders a game at, say 1440p flat out, no upscaling.
  • Dane only needs to render that at 480p to achieve the same output resolution.
    • 4K would be 720p internally,
 
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This is why I’m saying, I would not be so sure of this, why would Nintendo have a 16 nm version of a chip ready to go for platform they were not so sure of all the success on yet during the time that they came off of the Wii U and do so that far from the release of the lite/V2 model? This is in 2016/2017, not 2018 or early 2019.


I wouldn’t discredit that it could have been early testing of Mariko, but I also wouldn’t say it was definitely mariko the only thing they were testing. They were putting the switch as some sort of “third pillar” like the DS was to the GBA and supporting the 3DS and switch at the same time.

And again, I should stress that Nintendo is one of the special partners for nVidia, they would have more information on NVidia’s internal roadmaps way before we even see the public one.
The TX1 was not exactly a perfect SoC with no flaws. There was plenty of motivation to try and move to a die shrink of it from day one.
 
I know this is a little off topic. But how would a console only version of Dane compare to ps5 and series x?

I mean realistically, I imagine Switch 2 to be around PS4 performance in docked mode without DLSS, and perhaps PS4 Pro like performance with DLSS. That would be equivalent to 4 TFLOPs of performance from Polaris GCN.

I think we would be pretty close to the Series S in GPU performance in the best case scenario, but PS5 and xbone would still be at least 3x as more powerful and performant.. And I'm not counting if/when they take advantage of AMD versions version of DLSS.

in the end it would just be around the same power gap as Switch vs PS4 and Xbone base, on the upper end of around 3x on GPU. CPU might actually be closer than 3.5x from last gen. The other benefit is the PS5 and x series x will push for 2k-4k resolution.

If Switch 2 has A78 8 cores @ 1.5 GHz clockspeed (1 for OS), I'm not sure how it would compare to PS5 and x series 8 core CPU that runs around 3Ghz. I forgot if the two were equivalent per Hz in performance. Realistically speaking I'm expecting 2.5-3x speed gap at least.
 
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What are you referring to in 2016/2017? There was no indication of Mariko at that point, the only indicator of any increased performance was a Foxconn leak about them testing much higher clocks on the TX1.
I believe it was @Z0m3le that mentioned it once, but that there was a foxconn leak way before that where it had something else that wasn’t a TX1 but a different chip and that Nikkei apparently reported it.
The TX1 was not exactly a perfect SoC with no flaws. There was plenty of motivation to try and move to a die shrink of it from day one.
Of course…. If the platform proved to be one in which they should bother investing a lot of resources into, which it did, quickly outselling the Wii U early on and doing better than the 3DS launch aligned was what did it for them but that was over the course of a year. If it was another Wii U for them, in which they were weary if they did have that, they would have moved on but it depended on early information about the public reception to the platform.

The Mariko chip is a die shrink, not really a redesign that’s woefully different. If they had the shrink plans ready early already (such as before the launch), it would have come out by like second half of 2018, not the second half of 2019.
 
I believe it was @Z0m3le that mentioned it once, but that there was a foxconn leak way before that where it had something else that wasn’t a TX1 but a different chip and that Nikkei apparently reported it.
I don't think the second device from the foxconn leak was ever identified, but to my recollection, its main notable feature was a much larger die size, which would seem to suggest it was a prototype that went nowhere. Perhaps it was a "Plan B" for if the Switch didn't take off, because the 3DS wasn't going to last forever.

I don't recall there being a Nikkei article specifically about that, but I think there was one well before the Dane rumor cycle started about a "next gen" system that didn't really have a direction yet, or something like that.
Of course…. If the platform proved to be one in which they should bother investing a lot of resources into, which it did, quickly outselling the Wii U early on and doing better than the 3DS launch aligned was what did it for them but that was over the course of a year. If it was another Wii U for them, in which they were weary if they did have that, they would have moved on but it depended on early information about the public reception to the platform.

The Mariko chip is a die shrink, not really a redesign that’s woefully different. If they had the shrink plans ready early already (such as before the launch), it would have come out by like second half of 2018, not the second half of 2019.
I don't think HAC-001(-01) was Nintendo's original plan for Mariko, as certain rumors and that unconventional model number suggest.
 
I know this is a little off topic. But how would a console only version of Dane compare to ps5 and series x?

I think you misunderstand me. If series x is 100 and ps5 90. Where does a console only Dane lay?

The Dane Switch would probably scale in comparison percentage wise to the Series S, but overall the main benefit of a more modern Nvidia GPU for Nintendo will allow them to utilize newer graphics techniques.
 
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I think you misunderstand me. If series x is 100 and ps5 90. Where does a console only Dane lay?
(For Hybrid Dane at 8SMs)

Series X (6700XT): 100
PS5 (5700XT But overclocked) 85
Dane (Absolute Limit): 60?
Dane (After DLSS): 52-56
One X: 40
Series S: 37
PS4 Pro: 30-35
Dane (Before DLSS): 26-28
PS4: 16

At least more or less, DLSS varies game-to-game and how much a game takes to that plus NIS plus Mixed Precision (For the Absolute Limit metric) varies too.

Now, in the case of a hypothetical Dane that is docked only, it would likely go blow for blow against the PS5 or even Series X after DLSS as it would stomp the Series S before DLSS because an SoC like that would most likely use Full Orin at 16SMs as a base not-limited to a relatively poor memory configuration like the similarly-specced RTX 3050 Laptop GPU.
 
It is important to make clear what mode we are talking about when speculating about Switch power. IE, docked or undocked mode.

I believe that Dane docked being ~PS4 would be problematic, since implies handheld < PS4.
 
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The Mariko chip is a die shrink, not really a redesign that’s woefully different. If they had the shrink plans ready early already (such as before the launch), it would have come out by like second half of 2018, not the second half of 2019.
I would agree if Nintendo didn't had an history of sitting on ready-to-release hardware for 1+ years.
 
It is important to make clear what mode we are talking about when speculating about Switch power. IE, docked or undocked mode.

I believe that Dane docked being ~PS4 would be problematic, since implies handheld < PS4.
I don't understand. I do think it's possible that Switch 2 can match PS4 base performance in docked mode without DLSS. Something like a 1.4 TFLOPs could do it, potentially lower, but I have no idea how much more efficient the chip will be per flop or if it will support mixed precision like Maxwell/Pascal and Turing. 1.4 TFLOPs docked though is a safe estimate requirement though.

I don't get your second part on why it would be problematic. I'm not expecting handheld to have docked performance (although I bet it could with a 5nm TSMC chip with a decent battery life). I'm thinking 50% more than switch performance, at least in flops in handheld mode. Essentially xbone performance in handheld 720mode. Playing Doom 16 and eternal in 720p 60fps would be glorious on it. Not to mention Witcher 3 as well..

But who knows. Maybe Switch 2 could theoretically play ps4 performance docked mode in handheld mode, but at 1.5-2hrs life like the hacked V1 switches. Would also be interesting how it would be on 7nm+ TSMC, but we'll never know.
 
Another interesting look at the Orin Ampere GPU definitely shows this isn't just based on GA107.

nvidia_orinsoc_ampere_block.jpg


The GA102 diagram below clearly shows that each GPC has 12SM's per GPC and the Orin Ampere GPU has 8SM's per GPC(plus the increased cache). Definitely interesting to see all of what changes were made and if the Lovelace GPU's will reflect a similar design.
Maybe Dane might end up being more custom than originally thought, especially if it actually has RT capabilities and the current Orin design ends up completely absent of such hardware. Definitely raises more questions than it answers...

930-block-diagram.jpg
 
I don't understand. I do think it's possible that Switch 2 can match PS4 base performance in docked mode without DLSS. Something like a 1.4 TFLOPs could do it, potentially lower, but I have no idea how much more efficient the chip will be per flop or if it will support mixed precision like Maxwell/Pascal and Turing. 1.4 TFLOPs docked though is a safe estimate requirement though.

I don't get your second part on why it would be problematic. I'm not expecting handheld to have docked performance (although I bet it could with a 5nm TSMC chip with a decent battery life). I'm thinking 50% more than switch performance, at least in flops in handheld mode. Essentially xbone performance in handheld 720mode. Playing Doom 16 and eternal in 720p 60fps would be glorious on it. Not to mention Witcher 3 as well..

But who knows. Maybe Switch 2 could theoretically play ps4 performance docked mode in handheld mode, but at 1.5-2hrs life like the hacked V1 switches. Would also be interesting how it would be on 7nm+ TSMC, but we'll never know.

For obvious reasons, handhelds are behind in power from consoles. But on most occasions, they are overall more capable than the preceding console generation, from where they can get ports, game design and shared technology. For example, the GBA was overall more capable SNES/Genesis, significantly so. Similar situation with DS to N64 and Switch to 360.

When you are at that tier of power, the system has a readily available library of games you can get ports from without compromises and even improve upon them. Third parties also find easier to support the system this way, since they can port games and reuse old gen technology without as many barriers. When you have a system that is, on important aspects, weaker, I believe support is not as strong.

Take the 3DS for example, even though it supported more advanced technology than the GC/PS, it was on some aspects more limited than both systems. The ports it got from such systems were, arguably, inferior and required a lot more resources to do so. When you buy Sneake Eater for 3DS, you get a game that runs at 2/3 the frames as the PS2 version or half in the case of Luigi's Mansion or DKCR. Compare that with Black Flag Switch, where you get higher resolution, better frame rates and higher resolution textures than the PS3 version or MK8D, which is superior than Wii U. You are sure that you are experience the games as good or better than what was initially envisioned.

If the ports it gets from the PS4 generation are compromised in some significant way or are harder to make, it would lessen the appeal of the system IMHO.

Edit: Plus for obvious reasons, a more powerful system will have easier time getting downports from PS5/XBS.
 
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(For Hybrid Dane at 8SMs)

Series X (6700XT): 100
PS5 (5700XT But overclocked) 85
Dane (Absolute Limit): 60?
Dane (After DLSS): 52-56
One X: 40
Series S: 37
PS4 Pro: 30-35
Dane (Before DLSS): 26-28
PS4: 16

At least more or less, DLSS varies game-to-game and how much a game takes to that plus NIS plus Mixed Precision (For the Absolute Limit metric) varies too.

Now, in the case of a hypothetical Dane that is docked only, it would likely go blow for blow against the PS5 or even Series X after DLSS as it would stomp the Series S before DLSS because an SoC like that would most likely use Full Orin at 16SMs as a base not-limited to a relatively poor memory configuration like the similarly-specced RTX 3050 Laptop GPU.

What is your confidence level of this comparative analysis?
 
Would also be interesting how it would be on 7nm+ TSMC, but we'll never know.
Yeah, especially with TSMC's N7+ process node not being IP compatible with TSMC's N7 process node, and with the Kirin 990 5G being the only chip publicly announced to be fabricated using TSMC's N7+ process node. (AMD clarified that TSMC's N7+ process node wasn't necessarily used for the fabrication of Zen 3 CPUs.)

I'm curious about how Dane would perform in terms of performance and power efficiency if TSMC's N6 process node is used for the fabrication of Dane, especially since TSMC's N6 process node, unlike TSMC's N7+ process node, is IP compatible with TSMC's N7 process node. Although I believe TSMC's N6 process node being used for the fabrication of Dane is probably an unlikely scenario, I also believe TSMC's N6 process node's the absolute best case scenario in a hypothetical scenario where Nintendo and Nvidia decide to use TSMC.

Another interesting look at the Orin Ampere GPU definitely shows this isn't just based on GA107.

nvidia_orinsoc_ampere_block.jpg


The GA102 diagram below clearly shows that each GPC has 12SM's per GPC and the Orin Ampere GPU has 8SM's per GPC(plus the increased cache). Definitely interesting to see all of what changes were made and if the Lovelace GPU's will reflect a similar design.
Maybe Dane might end up being more custom than originally thought, especially if it actually has RT capabilities and the current Orin design ends up completely absent of such hardware. Definitely raises more questions than it answers...

930-block-diagram.jpg
The Jetson AGX Orin Data Sheet does mention that Orin does have RT cores, albeit one RT core per two SMs.

But anyway, similar to how the Tegra X1's GPU, and probably the Tegra X2's GPU, use the Maxwell architecture as the base, with features from the Pascal architecture being borrowed (e.g. FP16, etc.), I imagine Orin's GPU, and by extension Dane's GPU, probably use the Ampere architecture as the base, with features from the Lovelace architecture being borrowed (e.g. AV1 encoding, etc.).

But saying that, I don't expect Dane to be drastically different from Orin, outside of which CPU's being used, and perhaps certain hardware components being physically removed (e.g. safety island, etc.)
 
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