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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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Okay I will say this, Nintendo almost always drops overview trailers 3 weeks or more before a game is released, so we should at least be getting a RTDLDX overview trailer... that will most certainly contain the literal back of the box info that was leaked last night, and considering how major it is, I doubt they would reveal it outside of a Direct if there was one this close to release.

I still have hope
 
NateDrake said:
January went from a certain thing citing random percentages, patents, ESRB ratings or literal nothings and now the shift to February starts since January nears its end.



I'm not subscribed to HBO at the moment. I've played both games and the TLOU Remake. I've been trying to obtain an Olly Moss The Last of Us art print for several years but the price is far too high for me. TLOU is one of my favorite franchises and will give the show a look at some point this year. May do a HBO Max free trial over the summer and binge the show.

This is the art print I want to one day own and frame:

j9rQ6cH.jpg
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As one huge Last of Us fan to another, I hope you get that print.

I'm planning to get some Last of Us artwork for the game room when we move into the next house, and this is gorgeous. Haven't look at the price though. Almost scared to. I was thinking I wanted something featuring Joel and Ellie, or maybe the final shot of Last of Us part 2. But damn that encompasses Last of Us so well.

Also, might want to make the show a free time priority. It's absolutely amazing. And it will probably make you fall in love with that print even more, for better or worse (for your wallet).
 
Gamer_G said:
Okay I will say this, Nintendo almost always drops overview trailers 3 weeks or more before a game is released, so we should at least be getting a RTDLDX overview trailer... that will most certainly contain the literal back of the box info that was leaked last night, and considering how major it is, I doubt they would reveal it outside of a Direct if there was one this close to release.

I still have hope
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a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
 
Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
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it's actually perfect for Kirby and Octopath, and a right spot for Splatoon

as for earnings release, maybe that does not play a big role, it's just second or third week which makes most sense for them.
 
Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
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Is Splatoon really that important?
I'd understand if it was a game expansion or a new game, but it's just a new season, isn't it?
Those don't need directs.
 
Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
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I'm still on team tomorrow.
 
I forgot that I had at one point heard it suggested that the second week of the month is best for engagement, but that may be apocryphal.

LukasManak22 said:
it's actually perfect for Kirby and Octopath, and a right spot for Splatoon
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Kirby maybe, but isn't that pretty tight for Octopath? If it's getting a prerelease demo that should be this week.

I also think it's just about the worst possible time for the new Splatoon season. That being said...

AllEchse said:
Is Splatoon really that important?
I'd understand if it was a game expansion or a new game, but it's just a new season, isn't it?
Those don't need directs.
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I agree with this. While as a fan I've hoped season 3 of Splatoon 3 in month 3 of the year is something special, it's probably best served by a separate announcement that can comfortable go into more detail. Directs are very fast now, after all.

If the Direct really is the 9th, I could see a short advertisement of the Splatfest starting that weekend with acknowledgement a new season is coming. Details aren't required.
 
Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
Click to expand...
The Splatoon season trailers aren't really the sort of thing they'd tailor their Direct timing around. If they overlap, then they overlap, but I think Directs will stick to more major things like the expansion or some of the bigger seasonal additions like new weapon classes.
 
Raccoon said:
Kirby maybe, but isn't that pretty tight for Octopath? If it's getting a prerelease demo that should be this week.

I also think it's just about the worst possible time for the new Splatoon season. That being said...
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Well they aren't publishing Octopath this time so Square can release the demo even this week of they want.
 
Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
Click to expand...
I don't think the earnings releases really factor into Direct timing; apart from maybe rare periods when the release calendar might be empty and Nintendo want something on the software schedule to point out to shareholders. Right now that's not a factor - there are still 2 software titles for Nintendo to launch before this fiscal year wraps up, and the next fiscal year has a huge release slated for the first quarter.

The first 2 weeks of February always made the most sense to me for several reasons. Firstly, it's long enough into the calendar year for fine tuning announcements, localisation and coordination with partners following festive breaks around the world. Secondly, it's slap bang in the middle of the fallow period between Fire Emblem and Kirby, meaning advertising for both games can happen with minimal interruption. Thirdly, it would leave the end of the month clear for Pokemon news.

It might be a convenient window for Splatoon 3 news, too, but I suspect that's not a primary factor. Likelihood is that most years early February just happens to work well as a marketing window between software launches and before Pokemon news.
 
This thing is getting announced today and streamed tomorrow. Nothing can prevent Team January's victory.
 
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Pokemaniac said:
The Splatoon season trailers aren't really the sort of thing they'd tailor their Direct timing around. If they overlap, then they overlap, but I think Directs will stick to more major things like the expansion or some of the bigger seasonal additions like new weapon classes.
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I think the expansion will 100% be at E3, but I could see Splatoon otherwise being absent from Directs

I suppose it'd be a shame if the season system didn't give us such a clear schedule. It may not be announced in the Direct, but it will be before March 1st!
 
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Raccoon said:
a Direct next week is dumb

I'm not saying it's not happening but I don't get it

a little too late for Kirb and Octopath, a little too early for Splatoon

it really does suggest that the only perceptible factor is the earnings release. why is that so critical to their marketing? that's not even a rhetorical question, I just don't get it
Click to expand...

In all seriousness, I think we give way to much thought into how Nintendo schedules these things.

They probably have some sort of priority, which I guess has something to do with their own software plans. Or maybe in rare cases it could be a third party scheduling priority.

But, they focus on whatever that priority is, and make everything else fit into it if possible. So stuff like a Kirby rerelease, a multiplatform Octopath Traveler 2, and Splatoon 3 aren't the priority this go around. All of which have already been featured in Directs before.
 
bixente said:
It will be for some. There's always folks spewing toxic garbage post direct. Sorry to sound this way, but I don't like what this place becomes after a presentation. To be honest, there should be a thread solely for those to air their Direct grievances afterwards.

Btw I'm not saying folks can't be disappointed in a show. But sometimes there's takes that are just embarrassing. I remember on era someone said they were embarrassed to own a Switch cos of a poor direct.
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yeah there is a big difference between

the Nintendo Direct is going to be disappointing (bait, downer)

and

the Nintendo Direct is going to be disappointing to me (opinion, ok!)
 
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bixente said:
It will be for some. There's always folks spewing toxic garbage post direct. Sorry to sound this way, but I don't like what this place becomes after a presentation. To be honest, there should be a thread solely for those to air their Direct grievances afterwards.

Btw I'm not saying folks can't be disappointed in a show. But sometimes there's takes that are just embarrassing. I remember on era someone said they were embarrassed to own a Switch cos of a poor direct.
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Someone posting this image after a Direct is a mainstay on my Direct bingo:

aa0.png
 
BY2K said:
Noon (EST) and still no tweets from NoA after 2 days straight of silence from them. That's VERY unusual.
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Was waiting to say it, this is almost always an indicator of SOMETHING, gonna be a good week

EDIT: nvm:(
 
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BY2K said:
Noon (EST) and still no tweets from NoA after 2 days straight of silence from them. That's VERY unusual.
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Does NoA even tweet on Sundays? I agree not a single tweet today is weird, but I don't think yesterday's lack of tweets is meaningful at all.
 
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One thing I will say is that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - Booster Course Pass Wave 4 and the first DLC for Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope (The Tower of Doooom) are going to be in the upcoming direct, as BCP Wave 4 will likely be around March release and Sparks of Hope DLC 1 has been confirmed for an early 2023 release.
 
Skies said:
In all seriousness, I think we give way to much thought into how Nintendo schedules these things.

They probably have some sort of priority, which I guess has something to do with their own software plans. Or maybe in rare cases it could be a third party scheduling priority.

But, they focus on whatever that priority is, and make everything else fit into it if possible. So stuff like a Kirby rerelease, a multiplatform Octopath Traveler 2, and Splatoon 3 aren't the priority this go around. All of which have already been featured in Directs before.
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that's all good for why not, but it doesn't answer why. is this really just the soonest it's ready after coordinated after the gregorian new year?

I guess that's probably it, huh. it's just not ready for the more opportune timing this week and the also more opportune week after next is too late for some of the featured games

lastly, I wonder if thursdays really are better than wednesdays. is having a 2.9.2022 and 2.9.2023 direct a problem? on the other hand, would 2.9.2022 and 2.8.2023 really be any better?
 
They cab still announce it tomorrow. If anything they probably don’t want the direct the same week as that tournament. It’s either this week or next week (probably). Time’s almost up.
It really flew by since the GA.
 
I think it's OK for people to be disappointed in the situation where Nintendo shows up completely empty-handed. I'm expecting the "bare minimum" which would be new TOTK footage; obviously if they don't have that, people are going to be upset, and I think that's reasonable. I'd like to see TOTK and one other thing, be that Pikmin, Metroid, or Mario (2D or 3D).
 
Raccoon said:
that's all good for why not, but it doesn't answer why. is this really just the soonest it's ready after coordinated after the gregorian new year?

I guess that's probably it, huh. it's just not ready for the more opportune timing this week and the also more opportune week after next is too late for some of the featured games

lastly, I wonder if thursdays really are better than wednesdays. is having a 2.9.2022 and 2.9.2023 direct a problem? on the other hand, would 2.9.2022 and 2.8.2023 really be any better?
Click to expand...

The why could be as simple as Nintendo is a conservative company and Thursdays/February 9th is proven to work in the past. It's honestly kinda hard to speculation on the why becuase there are so many variables that we just don't know.

Like, I think we know Nintendo schedules these way ahead of time. But how far out? Did they already have the 9th (or second week of February) written in stone since last September? Maybe they know this week is more opportune, but contract stuff makes it to complicated to change.

Like you, I would love to know more. Maybe one day we will find out via some retirement tell all.
 
Jaunty said:
It's been an honor, Team January.
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I've been meaning to address the troops, but I instead relented when the battle was lost weeks ago.

Honorable members of Team January, I commend you. Not for your results, which were as poor as always, but for your spirit. 194 brave soldiers pledged their allegiance, not to a prediction, but to a belief. Team January chose to believe in the spirit of Direct speculation, by which anything can happen. Team January vowed a commitment to excitement, intrigue, theories, and mysteries even in the face of mockery and criticism from the very beginning. Many of you weathered the storm, maintaining commitment to curiosity as the possibilities waned. I do not count myself among you, but I have utmost respect for those who carried on, and are indeed carrying on, the fight until the bitter end.

Our future is bleak. With a Direct rumored for the exact same day as last year, that spirit of possibility is being dealt a resounding blow. Rather than mourning the loss of unpredictability, I encourage you all to look to the future. This year may have been routine, but at some point things may change. Nintendo will most likely have a new hardware platform to reveal in 2024, perhaps for a release in 2025. Only God knows what January of 2025 will hold for Nintendo. We could very well see another January event some day. The current status quo may have been unkind to us, but that spirit of uncertainty will rise again when whatever is next finally arrives.
 
Raccoon said:
Team January vowed a commitment to excitement, intrigue, theories, and mysteries even in the face of mockery and criticism from the very beginning. Many of you weathered the storm, maintaining commitment to curiosity as the possibilities waned.
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Shed a lil weeb tear because this is what it felt like being a video game nerd in the 90s
 
Team January will forever be an inspiration

People who make fun of Team January will forever be embarrassing
 
It'd be funny if there was no Direct, like, I've never seen Fami so certain that the Direct was gonna be on an exact day, with the only real evidence (the IDs) pointing to a Direct far sooner, which is apparently out of the question. Seeing Raccoon call this year routine really sealed the deal, we literally have nothing to go off of but it's as if Nate and Jeff came in and asked the thread what 74-65 was
 
420 Cludge Gang said:
I think it's OK for people to be disappointed in the situation where Nintendo shows up completely empty-handed. I'm expecting the "bare minimum" which would be new TOTK footage; obviously if they don't have that, people are going to be upset, and I think that's reasonable. I'd like to see TOTK and one other thing, be that Pikmin, Metroid, or Mario (2D or 3D).
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100%. I try to go into directs with the "as long as they show 1 or 2 things I like, I'll be fine" attitude.

Easier said than done, but if we go in expecting huge blowouts or 4chan-"leak"-esque announcements, we are absolutely setting ourselves up for disappointment.
 
Gamer_G said:
It'd be funny if there was no Direct, like, I've never seen Fami so certain that the Direct was gonna be on an exact day, with the only real evidence (the IDs) pointing to a Direct far sooner, which is apparently out of the question. Seeing Raccoon call this year routine really sealed the deal, we literally have nothing to go off of but it's as if Nate and Jeff came in and asked the thread what 74-65 was
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everything says this week except for shaky insiders and precedent

it's like a war between famiboards' two strongest schools of thought: extrapolating from tiny random pieces of metadata and believing anyone who winks hard enough at them
 
Raccoon said:
I've been meaning to address the troops, but I instead relented when the battle was lost weeks ago.

Honorable members of Team January, I commend you. Not for your results, which were as poor as always, but for your spirit. 194 brave soldiers pledged their allegiance, not to a prediction, but to a belief. Team January chose to believe in the spirit of Direct speculation, by which anything can happen. Team January vowed a commitment to excitement, intrigue, theories, and mysteries even in the face of mockery and criticism from the very beginning. Many of you weathered the storm, maintaining commitment to curiosity as the possibilities waned. I do not count myself among you, but I have utmost respect for those who carried on, and are indeed carrying on, the fight until the bitter end.

Our future is bleak. With a Direct rumored for the exact same day as last year, that spirit of possibility is being dealt a resounding blow. Rather than mourning the loss of unpredictability, I encourage you all to look to the future. This year may have been routine, but at some point things may change. Nintendo will most likely have a new hardware platform to reveal in 2024, perhaps for a release in 2025. Only God knows what January of 2025 will hold for Nintendo. We could very well see another January event some day. The current status quo may have been unkind to us, but that spirit of uncertainty will rise again when whatever is next finally arrives.
Click to expand...

Honorable members of Team January, before jumping onto the ship of the nefarious Team February, may I recommend jumping on the Orville Redenbacher dinghy which will stay afloat for the next 20 hours?
 
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