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StarTopic Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack |ST| New 2024 Poll Up

How will Nintendo handle the NSO with the launch of the Switch 2

  • Everything on the service becomes playable on launch day of the new system.

    Votes: 150 76.9%
  • A slow roll out with a promise to move everything over within 12 months from launch day

    Votes: 25 12.8%
  • LOL Nintendo is going to start all over with just NES games in late 2025

    Votes: 18 9.2%
  • Nothing will transfer over because the Switch 2 won't be backwards compatible with the Switch 1

    Votes: 2 1.0%

  • Total voters
    195
One of the downsides to new Mario Kart content is Nintendo being like... "No retro content 4 u" and then climbing on their broomstick and flying away into the sky, cackling.

Though really the games I want on NSO now are the Oracle games. Or a nice GB surprise like DK94, Wario Land, or Kid Icarus: Myths & Monsters.
 
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Funnily enough with how much we got the past few months a break month wouldnt even bug me much

I’m expecting maybe just N64 this week though and thats it
 
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So we should be having next update announcement today. Tomorrow will be the Pikmin reviews day, and I don't think they will announce anything the day before Pikmin launch nor the launch day. Unless there is not GBA/N64 announcement this month and we get a GB/NES/SNES update next week, but I doubt it.
 
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I mean, hopefully they'd be saying no because Mega Man Legends Legacy Collection is just around the corner. ;)

If they want a Capcom game for N64, I think RE2 would probably be the more exciting get anyway.
I wonder if they'd prioritize a Legends collection over a Starforce one. I feel it would take a lot more effort to remaster the Legends series then it'll be to get the SF games into the DS emulation they already used for the ZX games.
 
I wonder if they'd prioritize a Legends collection over a Starforce one. I feel it would take a lot more effort to remaster the Legends series then it'll be to get the SF games into the DS emulation they already used for the ZX games.
ZX/A were ports and not emulation. Actually so were Zero 1-4.

On the various MM collections only the NES and SNES titles are actually emulated. Everything else from PS1, PS2, Wii, GBA or DS were fully ported iirc.

I think the Tron Bonne source code being found as a recent file in the big Capcom data leak awhile back points to them at least investigating a Legends series collection or rereleases of some sort. Throw together Legends 1, Legends 2, Tron Bonne and that mythical Legends 3 Proto and you have a pretty compelling Legacy Collection and possibly a good test/springboard for going full production on Legends 3.
 
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Last month was one of the extremely rare months with three separate NSO updates. There are going to be weak ones, too.
Yeah, June 2023 had eleven NSO titles released, nine of which for the first time in any region (the two SNES/SFC games had previously been released in only one of the two NSO regions) - even just that nine titles figure is the single best month for NSO besides the months that a new platform was added.

We're currently operating at a completely new title being added to NSO on average once a week - which is as good as Arcade Archives, and better than modern Project EGG (a lot of the weekly releases for that are rereleasing previously released titles with price changes/updates to work better on more modern versions of Windows). It's not up to the pace of Virtual Consoles past to be sure, but Virtual Console also was much more easily able to get most third party support - whereas a lot of the most prolific third parties on old Nintendo platforms are re-releasing their stuff themselves now and are less likely to make things available via NSO.

Further to this, I decided to make some graphs to illustrate this "rate of new additions per month" trend across a few different emulation services - so these two graphs show rolling 12 month averages for new titles added to services (irrespective of which regions these titles are available in on these services), the first shows all of the services launch aligned, and the second showing them all in chronological order:
uzsw2b5.png

WCGTeL3.png


Some of the lines go below zero due to titles being removed from services - something that thankfully has not happened with NSO yet.
 
Yeah, June 2023 had eleven NSO titles released, nine of which for the first time in any region (the two SNES/SFC games had previously been released in only one of the two NSO regions) - even just that nine titles figure is the single best month for NSO besides the months that a new platform was added.

We're currently operating at a completely new title being added to NSO on average once a week - which is as good as Arcade Archives, and better than modern Project EGG (a lot of the weekly releases for that are rereleasing previously released titles with price changes/updates to work better on more modern versions of Windows). It's not up to the pace of Virtual Consoles past to be sure, but Virtual Console also was much more easily able to get most third party support - whereas a lot of the most prolific third parties on old Nintendo platforms are re-releasing their stuff themselves now and are less likely to make things available via NSO.

Further to this, I decided to make some graphs to illustrate this "rate of new additions per month" trend across a few different emulation services - so these two graphs show rolling 12 month averages for new titles added to services (irrespective of which regions these titles are available in on these services), the first shows all of the services launch aligned, and the second showing them all in chronological order:
uzsw2b5.png

WCGTeL3.png


Some of the lines go below zero due to titles being removed from services - something that thankfully has not happened with NSO yet.

These are some pretty cool graphs. Thank you for doing the work. The Wii's library definitely blew up early, that is no surprised. It did have a softer landing than I remember, although the later years rarely had any big hits. Only now, after almost five years in existence, the NSO is matching the Wii VC output on a monthly basis. I always figured that the NSO was going to have a much longer shelf life with updates as long as everything moves over day one to the new system. The NSO will probably always stick to that 2~4 games/month range with a mix of new systems as well as continuous updates to older libraries. Most of these services largely died out after five years or so.

It will never reach the heights of the Wii VC for several reasons, but the NSO library is still coming along impressively well.
 
These are some pretty cool graphs. Thank you for doing the work. The Wii's library definitely blew up early, that is no surprised. It did have a softer landing than I remember, although the later years rarely had any big hits. Only now, after almost five years in existence, the NSO is matching the Wii VC output on a monthly basis. I always figured that the NSO was going to have a much longer shelf life with updates as long as everything moves over day one to the new system. The NSO will probably always stick to that 2~4 games/month range with a mix of new systems as well as continuous updates to older libraries. Most of these services largely died out after five years or so.

It will never reach the heights of the Wii VC for several reasons, but the NSO library is still coming along impressively well.
I guess the one positive of "caveman games" is that there's little risk of the rights expiring or sky rocketing. Outside of Goldeneye I don't think there's anything that's been added to NSO that's in real danger of being delisted.
 
I find it ironic how the genesis nso app has the most rpg's for any NSO app(considering how it's known for not having a lot of rpg's)

NES - 3 (Crystalis, Earthbound Beginnings, and Zelda 2)
SNES - 3 (Breath of Fire 1 and 2 and Earthbound)
Gameboy - 0
N64 - 1 (Paper Mario)
Gameboy Advance - 2 (Fire Emblem and Mario and Luigi: Superstar Saga)
Sega Genesis - 5 (Light Crusader, Phantasy Star, Shining Force 1 and 2, and Sword of Vermillion)

That's a third of all rpg's on NSO. There is so much quality in the app and not much filler (except flicky) and that makes it (in my opinion) the best console on NSO. The only thing it's really lacking is in the sports department, which is also ironic considering how that's one of the Genesis's greatest strenghts, but understandable given how many of those were licensed

I am curious about how they get the games on the service, whether it's Sega negotiating it themselves with their own money or Nintendo giving them a expansion pack budget.
 
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If you're considering Centy, Landstalker and Beyond Oasis to be RPGs, then so are Zelda 1, ALTTP, LADX, OOT, MM and TMC.
Fair enough I'll remove those, and I'll still keep Zelda 2 cause in my opinion it's an rpg. That's still a third of all rpg on NSO though
 
Fair enough I'll remove those, and I'll still keep Zelda 2 cause in my opinion it's an rpg. That's still a third of all rpg on NSO though
I just mean the reason most Zelda games are discounted as Action RPGs (item based character improvement rather than a leveling system) applies to both Centy and Landstalker too. You just swap out Heart Containers for Apples of Life and Lifestock, they're actual Zelda clones.

Beyond Oasis skirts the line, the Hearts you use to level up are random drops from enemies rather hidden in the world like these other games. Usually all these games are considered Action Adventure though, along with others on NSO (Metroid, Gargoyle's Quest, Blaster Master, StarTropics, etc).

Zelda II has a pretty traditional leveling system so I'd agree with that.

edit: You could add River City Ransom (NES) as an Action RPG.
 
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edit: You could add River City Ransom (NES) as an Action RPG.
I thought about it for a solid couple minutes and even booted it up, but I feel like it's more of an open world beat 'em up with inspiration from rpg games.
It was very ahead of it's time though.
 
Mario Kart being treated like the premium content for the service with the waves sucks. Like, no, give me value BEYOND the $25 pass you've been using to help sell thing things for almost 2 years now.
 
Mario Kart being treated like the premium content for the service with the waves sucks. Like, no, give me value BEYOND the $25 pass you've been using to help sell thing things for almost 2 years now.
Temporary access to DLC for something you already have to own should never be the main incentive of a service like this. It shouldn't be something you don't receive if you didn't also buy something else.
 
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Japan has six games left that Nintendo PROMISED to add by the end of 2023, and there's six months left in the year, so (unless they're doing a double release in the same month, which wouldn't make that much sense given that the double releases we've had were games from the same series) they have to add a game every month for the rest of the year.

I'd wait for tomorrow to be sure for an N64 announcement.

Yeah that was kinda brash and overreactionary, I'm just kinda pissed at Nintendo and their schedule for NSO; the fact that there's only been 2 NES games, 2 Snes games and 4 GB/GBC games released this year is just mind boggling.

edit: Everyone whose not Japan only has four games left in the year, five cause we'll probably get Harvest Moon 64 aswell, but not six because when they get Golden Eye we'll get nothing, since they got nothing when it came out over here.
 
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What would discount next week, too?
We probably won't get any base updates or genesis updates this month since we got one last month and we never get those on back to back months (genesis got back to back updates once but that was really early in it's lifetime), and GBA/N64 gets announced a week early, so if they did announce them next week it would be for August and not July
 
Yeah that was kinda brash and overreactionary, I'm just kinda pissed at Nintendo and their schedule for NSO; the fact that there's only been 2 NES games, 2 Snes games and 4 GB/GBC games released this year is just mind boggling.
There's been a whole lot more than 4 GB/GBC games released this year - given that at the start of the year the GB NSO app hadn't even been announced yet...
 
There's been a whole lot more than 4 GB/GBC games released this year - given that at the start of the year the GB NSO app hadn't even been announced yet...
What I meant is that almost six months after the launch of Gameboy games there's only been 4 games released. The NES app launched with 20 games and six months later they had added 15 games. The next app, the SNES, launched with 20 games, but only had 6 games six months after launch. The GB app launched with only 9 games, and has had only 4 games added nearly 6 months after launch. Despite adding more consoles it feels like they're adding less games to the service, at it doesn't even stop at base because expansion has the same problem.

The N64 app launched with 9 games and six months later had 5 games added to the service. The GBA app launched with 6 games and nearly six months later they've added 5 games right, well not really since 3 of those are arguably inferior ports of games already on the service, so really we've only had 2 new games added to the GBA app, which is absolutely terrible considering this is the "premium service"
 
What I meant is that almost six months after the launch of Gameboy games there's only been 4 games released. The NES app launched with 20 games and six months later they had added 15 games. The next app, the SNES, launched with 20 games, but only had 6 games six months after launch. The GB app launched with only 9 games, and has had only 4 games added nearly 6 months after launch. Despite adding more consoles it feels like they're adding less games to the service, at it doesn't even stop at base because expansion has the same problem.

The N64 app launched with 9 games and six months later had 5 games added to the service. The GBA app launched with 6 games and nearly six months later they've added 5 games right, well not really since 3 of those are arguably inferior ports of games already on the service, so really we've only had 2 new games added to the GBA app, which is absolutely terrible considering this is the "premium service"

While I get the frustration that new libraries are getting games at a slower pace, the overall pace of updates hasn't really diminished. Since the launch of the GB/GBA apps, we have seen:

NES: Two updates with two games.
SNES: One update with one game.
GB: Two updates with four games.

N64: One update with one game.
Genesis: Two updates with eight games.
GBA: Three updates with five games (yes, three of those games are ports but they have their value)

Base plan has seen seven games added and the expansion has seen fourteen games added. Yes, the Genesis is doing a lot of heavy lifting at the moment, but they were two really good updates. Nintendo is going to keep updating other platforms as well so unfortunately we have to wait for the GB/GBA libraries to grow.
 
What I meant is that almost six months after the launch of Gameboy games there's only been 4 games released. The NES app launched with 20 games and six months later they had added 15 games. The next app, the SNES, launched with 20 games, but only had 6 games six months after launch. The GB app launched with only 9 games, and has had only 4 games added nearly 6 months after launch. Despite adding more consoles it feels like they're adding less games to the service, at it doesn't even stop at base because expansion has the same problem.

The N64 app launched with 9 games and six months later had 5 games added to the service. The GBA app launched with 6 games and nearly six months later they've added 5 games right, well not really since 3 of those are arguably inferior ports of games already on the service, so really we've only had 2 new games added to the GBA app, which is absolutely terrible considering this is the "premium service"
While I get the frustration that new libraries are getting games at a slower pace, the overall pace of updates hasn't really diminished. Since the launch of the GB/GBA apps, we have seen:

NES: Two updates with two games.
SNES: One update with one game.
GB: Two updates with four games.

N64: One update with one game.
Genesis: Two updates with eight games.
GBA: Three updates with five games (yes, three of those games are ports but they have their value)

Base plan has seen seven games added and the expansion has seen fourteen games added. Yes, the Genesis is doing a lot of heavy lifting at the moment, but they were two really good updates. Nintendo is going to keep updating other platforms as well so unfortunately we have to wait for the GB/GBA libraries to grow.
Both are extremely valid points, but it's the price of the expansion pass all around is what makes this so infuriating. Base subscription isn't all that terrible; $25CAD for a year for online play, cloud saves, game trials, and NES/SNES/Gameboy is a pretty solid deal. It's when it comes up to the EP that it's being more than doubled in price but not in value is what draws the ire. Like I can only recommend the EP in good conscience if it means being a part of a family plan where you can split it eight ways and go down to $12 for the year.

And yet somehow $1 a month still feels like a rip-off.
 
Both are extremely valid points, but it's the price of the expansion pass all around is what makes this so infuriating. Base subscription isn't all that terrible; $25CAD for a year for online play, cloud saves, game trials, and NES/SNES/Gameboy is a pretty solid deal. It's when it comes up to the EP that it's being more than doubled in price but not in value is what draws the ire. Like I can only recommend the EP in good conscience if it means being a part of a family plan where you can split it eight ways and go down to $12 for the year.

And yet somehow $1 a month still feels like a rip-off.

I do agree that paying $50 for the expansion pass is a big ask. I get that Nintendo can only add "x" amount of retro games at a time. I think the expansion pass would be better if Nintendo was a little more aggressive with adding first party DLC to the platform. Obviously, I wouldn't expect new stuff all the time, but adding older content like Three Houses and Age of Calamity DLC would be great, IMO.

All that said, I feel a lot better with a family plan subscription.
 
SNES Library Analysis- June 2023

Ok, so I compared the current SNES library on the NSO to past Virtual Console A couple of things here. First this is strictly talking about the North American libraries. Second, it doesn't matter if it was de-listed. If at any point it was on a virtual console, it is here.

Wii: 75 games
Wii-U: 51 games
NSO: 57 games

Bombuzal
Brawl Brothers
Breath of Fire
Breath of Fire II
Demon's Crest
Donkey Kong Country
Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest
Donkey Kong Country 3: Dixie Kong's Double Trouble!
Earthbound
F-Zero
Harvest Moon
Kirby Super Star
Kirby's Avalanche
Kirby's Dream Course
Kirby's Dream Land 3
Natsume Championship Wrestling
Pilotwings
Star Fox
Super E.D.F. Earth Defense Force
Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts
Super Mario Kart
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island
Super Metroid
Super Punch-Out!!
The Ignition Factor
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
Wild Guns

Claymates
Congo's Caper
Doomsday Warrior
Earthworm Jim 2
Fighter's History
Jelly Boy
Joe & Mac
Joe & Mac 2
Magical Drop II
Mario's Super Picross
Operation Logic Bomb
Panel de Pon
Pop'n TwinBee
Prehistorik Man
Psycho Dream
Side Pocket
Smash Tennis
Spanky's Quest
Star Fox 2
Super Baseball Simulator 1.000
Super Mario All-Stars*
Super Puyo Puyo 2
Super Soccer
Super Tennis
Super Valis IV
The Peace Keepers
Stunt Race FX
Tuff E Nuff

ActRaiser
Aero the Acro-Bat
Aero the Acro-Bat 2
Axley
Castlevania: Dracula X
Chrono Trigger
Contra III: The Alien Wars
Cybernator
Darious Twin
DoReMi Fantasy: Milon's DokiDoki Adventure
Final Fantasy II
Final Fantasy III
Final Fantasy Mystic Quest
Final Fight
Final Fight 2
Final Fight 3
Genghis Khan II: Clan of the Gray Wolf
Ghoul Patrol
Gradius II
Indiana Jones' Greatest Adventures
Mega Man 7
Mega Man X
Mega Man X2
Mega Man X3
Metal Marines
Nobunaga's Ambition
Ogre Battle: The March of the Black Queen
Pac-Attack
Pac-Man 2: The new ADventures
Prince of Persia
Romance of the Three Kingdoms IV: Wall of Fire
R-Type III: The Third Lightning
Secret of Mana
Sim City
Space Invaders: The Original Game
Street Fighter Alpha 2
Street Fighter II Turbo Hyper Fighting
Street Fighter II: The World Warrior
Super Adventure Island
Super Adventure Island II
Super Bonk
Super R-Type
Super Star Wars
Super Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back
Super Star Wars: Return of the Jedi
Super Castlevania IV
Super Street Fighter II: The New Challengers
Super Turrican
Super Turrican 2
The Combatribes
The Legend of the Mystical Ninja
Uncharted Waters: New Horizons
Vegas Stakes
Zombies Ate my Neighbors

As for the breakdown of games that are currently missing from the NSO, some may still be possible while others are unlikely. There are some games that are listed twice, fyi.

Games that are currently part of separate collections from their respective publishers:
Castlevania: Dracula X
Contra III: The Alien Wars
Final Fantasy II
Final Fantasy III
Final Fight
Mega Man 7
Mega Man X
Mega Man X2
Mega Man X3
Pac-Attack
Pac-Man 2: The new Adventures
Secret of Mana
Space Invaders: The Original Game
Street Fighter Alpha 2
Street Fighter II Turbo Hyper Fighting
Street Fighter II: The World Warrior
Super Castlevania IV
Super Street Fighter II: The New Challengers

Games that have received separate releases, either as remakes or straight ports:
ActRaiser
Cybernator
Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars

Konami: Tell us that you still love us buddy!
Axley
DoReMi Fantasy: Milon's DokiDoki Adventure*
Gradius III
Super Adventure Island
Super Adventure Island II
Super Bonk
The Legend of the Mystical Ninja
*Never released natively outside of Japan


LucasArts: Disney brought back the brand back in 2021 and we have see plenty of Star Wars gams on other services. Some of these games are not beyond the realm of possibility.
Ghoul Patrol
indiana Jones' Greatest Adventures
Super Star Wars
Super Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back
Zombies Ate my Neighbors

That one missing Jaleco Game:
R-Type III: The Third Lightning

Koei Tecmo: Come back to us!
Genghis Khan II: Clan of the Gray Wolf
Nobunaga's Ambition
Romance of the Three Kingdoms IV: Wall of Fire
Uncharted Waters

Publishers are defunct so games may be in licensing hell:
Super Turrican (Factor 5)
Super Turrican 2 (Factor 5)

Other games that have largely been MIA besides tied to past Virtual Consoles:
Aero the Acro-Bat- Does Sunsoft want to bring it back?
Aero the Acro-Bat 2- See above
Darious Twin
Final Fight 2- Capcom forgot this game exhists
Final Fight 3- See above
Metal Marines
Prince of Persia- Ubisoft hasn't ported this game in a decade.
Sim City- Seems like a no brainer, but there is probably other things behind the scenes.
Super R-Type
The Combatribes- Arc System Works has the rights now
Vegas Stakes- Nintendo suddenly doesn't like gambling?


Square-Enix Games: It's Square, people.
ActRaiser
Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy II
Final Fantasy III
Final Fantasy Mystic Quest
Ogre Battle: The March of the Black Queen
Secret of Mana
 
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I get not liking the drip feed, at the same time Nintendo would have been done adding content to NES and SNES years ago if they had done like 3-4 a month as some people had wanted.
 
This entire list explains what I've been saying. Nintendo can easily get at least a third of these titles and release them, there's no reason for them to drop 2 games so far this whole year

I believe NSO offerings are not priority for Nintendo anymore.

Other than Golden Eye, NSO is not something so be excited. Just because Nintendo has made sure to stay that way.
 
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The reason it's a drip feed is because they're going to keep this going for several more years at least. That's why GB especially is so slow - that's fodder for the base tier for a long time to come, in all probability.

And yeah, that sucks, not least because GB was a system I was really glad to have and it's irritating having no idea how many months or years it'll take for stuff like Donkey Kong, Kid Icarus 2, or the other Wario Land titles to turn up. At least the two Oracle titles should turn up this year.

I guess the positive for me is that the whole package appeals. I've played stuff on N64, GB, GBA and Mega Drive so far this year (as well as the Kart DLC) and there's more stuff I'll play on all those systems as it stands. But I do understand the frustration.
 
I get not liking the drip feed, at the same time Nintendo would have been done adding content to NES and SNES years ago if they had done like 3-4 a month as some people had wanted.
I agree, that's definitely not the way to go, and that's neither what Nintendo want. But this is too slow, they could do 2 games every 2 months for NES and SNES and 3 for GB/GBC, that works out to 12 per year for NES and SNES respectively (around the same we were getting in 2020) and 18 per year for GB/GBC, which after a year or two they can drop to 2
 
I agree, that's definitely not the way to go, and that's neither what Nintendo want. But this is too slow, they could do 2 games every 2 months for NES and SNES and 3 for GB/GBC, that works out to 12 per year for NES and SNES respectively (around the same we were getting in 2020) and 18 per year for GB/GBC, which after a year or two they can drop to 2
And I just don't agree with you, I think this year has had plenty of updates for the various services.
 
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The 3DS finished with 82 GB/GBC games. The NSO has a long way to go, but it should get there eventually. The benefit of the Gameboy is that most of the games have rarely seen remakes or collections. Third parties are probably more likely to put their games on the service in this case.

The other thing with the drip feed is, like @MisterSpo said, Nintendo needs to make these apps last. We are at the point now where the main systems are already on. I wouldn't be surprised if it is just the five apps that we have now until 2025. The next system that arrives, whenever that is, will be a real wild card.
 
SNES Library Analysis- June 2023
Something to keep in mind is that it was probably easier to pay the licensing fees for virtual console 3rd party games than for NSO third party games. For virtual console it was as simple as just giving the third party a chunk of the sales revenue. With NSO nintendo can't do that. Likely a big reason there is zero Square Enix owned stuff on NSO.
 
The 3DS finished with 82 GB/GBC games. The NSO has a long way to go, but it should get there eventually. The benefit of the Gameboy is that most of the games have rarely seen remakes or collections. Third parties are probably more likely to put their games on the service in this case.

The other thing with the drip feed is, like @MisterSpo said, Nintendo needs to make these apps last. We are at the point now where the main systems are already on. I wouldn't be surprised if it is just the five apps that we have now until 2025. The next system that arrives, whenever that is, will be a real wild card.
Yeah, absolutely. And we've no idea if a 2025 system addition even comes to the base tier. If GBA is Expansion Pack, would DS or PC Engine really go to the base tier?
Virtual Boy when Nintendo???
This is genuinely something I think they should do to add value to the service. Go for the real deep cuts - Virtual Boy, Satellaview if it's feasible, N64 DD.
Something to keep in mind is that it was probably easier to pay the licensing fees for virtual console 3rd party games than for NSO third party games. For virtual console it was as simple as just giving the third party a chunk of the sales revenue. With NSO nintendo can't do that. Likely a big reason there is zero Square Enix owned stuff on NSO.
Yeah, and when it comes to RPGs especially, the absence of Square/Enix titles goes a long way to explaining the situation on SNES NSO versus VC.
 
Yeah, absolutely. And we've no idea if a 2025 system addition even comes to the base tier. If GBA is Expansion Pack, would DS or PC Engine really go to the base tier?

I would be shocked if the DS was a base plan system. PC Engine maybe, but I doubt Nintendo gives the DS games on the cheaper plan. Assuming everything from the Switch transfers over day 1 to the next platform, the next system almost impossible to pick.

Nintendo-
Virtual Boy- I like @Orbit 's thinking. That would be a cool get for the NSO, even if it was a small library there are only two, maybe three playable games lol.
Gamecube- Gotta be honest here. Nintendo is churning out remasters like clockwork. I don't think we will get Gamecube any time soon.
CD-I- Yeah, Nintendo wants to forget these exists, but what if.....

Sega-
Master System- The Wii picked up 16 games on the VC, but several of those were already released as part of the "Sega Ages" line. If we ever get it, it would be a base plan system.
Game Gear- The 3DS VC saw 16 games, but half of those games were Sonic games that were just released as part of a collection. Is Sega going to put in the effort?
CD/32X- If we were ever going to get any of those games, I'd imagine that they will be tied to the Genesis app.
Saturn- I think the Virtual Boy has a better shot, but who knows. SEGA seems interested in bringing some of those games back.
Dreamcast- Same thinking as the Gamecube. Expect more remasters, if anything.

Other parties-
Turbo-Grafix 16- Maybe one day
Commedore 64- See above
Neo Geo- Arcade Archives is taking care of those games.

To me, the DS seems like the most likely, but it is hardly a shoe in.
 
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Something to keep in mind is that it was probably easier to pay the licensing fees for virtual console 3rd party games than for NSO third party games. For virtual console it was as simple as just giving the third party a chunk of the sales revenue. With NSO nintendo can't do that. Likely a big reason there is zero Square Enix owned stuff on NSO.
Yeah, the business model makes it much harder. NSO is an ever-growing retro library, not a rotative one or a la carte. It's not good for Nintendo to have recurring payment/split for each game (batch) as future games will be added on top, unless they're confident the increase of revenue thanks to the 3rd party games will outpace that cost which keeps increasing.

They probably want to pay upfront for each game/batch and have it for a very long period if not forever. But publishers have already ways to monetize their big retro games, and Nintendo giving them "for free" hurts those and future plans, so they will actually ask for a lot of money. In turn, Nintendo 1st party is really strong in itself, it's likely that the vast majority of those who want big retro 3rd party are likely already subscribed, so it's unlikely to be worth what the publishers are asking them for. And thus, we're mainly going to get games which their owners don't expect them to help selling their own collections/subscriptions.

It would be great if Nintendo at least allowed publishers to sell their games/subscriptions as DLC for NSO apps. I would rather have everything in one place with feature parity across the board (specially if Nintendo keeps adding more of them over time).
 
I would love Virtual Boy, but I don't think Nintendo would, given that it's arguably their biggest failure and there's not much they can really add to it (in their eyes, to me the value of having a way to play these games is worth it alone). What I think will happen is

Base tier and expansion pack update in 2025-
Master System and Game Gear for Base
DS and Turbografx/PC Engine for Expansion Pack
Then in 2028 a third tier gets added with Gamecube and Saturn, maybe Dreamcast aswell

It would be great if Nintendo at least allowed publishers to sell their games/subscriptions as DLC for NSO apps. I would rather have everything in one place with feature parity across the board (specially if Nintendo keeps adding more of them over time).
I like this idea but I would change it to were you can only play these third party games from base consoles if you have an expansion pack subscription. I assume that Nintendo has a bigger budget for expansion pack than they do for base tier, so they can use the expansion pack budget to give the third parties a bigger revenue share than they would with the base tier. ex: if you own expansion pack you could play Mega Man X on the SNES app or Castlevania 2 on the NES app.
 
Needed a break from "big" games so went back to Super Mario Advance. It was "just what I needed", except for the controls.

Oh how aggravating to forget that there is no remapping. I slotted in my Hori Split Pad Pro for some nice D-pad action but soon had to compromise with the Joy-Con as I needed to remap the buttons at system level. I am not running and jumping with X and A.

I can live with drip-feed but please Nintendo bring some basic functionality to these apps. Button remapping and the ability to use your own hardware (NSO controllers) with them isn't a big ask!

Playing with the Joy-Con wasn't so bad even though I don't like how wobbly they feel when playing a twitchy 2D platformer, but it really messes with your muscle memory when you need to back out onto the home screen and Y is B and B is A. 🙃
 
I would be shocked if the DS was a base plan system. PC Engine maybe, but I doubt Nintendo gives the DS games on the cheaper plan. Assuming everything from the Switch transfers over day 1 to the next platform, the next system almost impossible to pick.

Nintendo-
Virtual Boy- I like @Orbit 's thinking. That would be a cool get for the NSO, even if it was a small library there are only two, maybe three playable games lol.
Gamecube- Gotta be honest here. Nintendo is churning out remasters like clockwork. I don't think we will get Gamecube any time soon.
CD-I- Yeah, Nintendo wants to forget these exists, but what if.....

Sega-
Master System- The Wii picked up 16 games on the VC, but several of those were already released as part of the "Sega Ages" line. If we ever get it, it would be a base plan system.
Game Gear- The 3DS VC saw 16 games, but half of those games were Sonic games that were just released as part of a collection. Is Sega going to put in the effort?
CD/32X- If we were ever going to get any of those games, I'd imagine that they will be tied to the Genesis app.
Saturn- I think the Virtual Boy has a better shot, but who knows. SEGA seems interested in bringing some of those games back.
Dreamcast- Same thinking as the Gamecube. Expect more remasters, if anything.

Other parties-
Turbo-Grafix 16- Maybe one day
Commedore 64- See above
Neo Geo- Arcade Archives is taking care of those games.

To me, the DS seems like the most likely, but it is hardly a shoe in.
Keep in mind that Project EGG is also coming to Switch - and given Nintendo's history with D4E (provided the Neo Geo and MSX emulators for VC, has a title on NSO - that was only added after the EP launched) - I think there is a non-zero chance that it becomes part of the NSO service; so that might end up being how we get MSX back, as well as a bunch of other old Japanese computer models for the first time (NEC PC-98, Fujitsu FM-7, Sharp X1 etc).

As for what I think is likely for NSO in general:
  • We get PC Engine/TurboGrafx and/or Master System/Mark III in Autumn 2024 (if we get both, I'd say Master System base NSO and PCE/Turbografx for EP)
  • Then Nintendo DS gets added in 2025 as a Switch 2 exclusive NSO+EP service (based on the cope that the Switch 2 will have a built-in microphone) - and if they keep the double console drop thing then I could see Game Gear coming with it as a base NSO thing.
  • Project EGG as mentioned is a wild card, but it was added it'd be NSO+EP for sure (platforms on EGG that aren't on Switch - or mentioned elsewhere in this list- are as follows: PC-9801, PC-8801 [including mkIISR], PC-6001 [including mkII], PC-6601, MSX/MSX2/MSX2+, Sharp X1, X68000, FM-7, FM77AV)
  • Saturn is unlikely, and Dreamcast ain't happening ever - 32X and Sega CD could happen, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. And, for completeness sake, we are also not gonna get SG-1000 or Sega Pico/Advanced Pico Beena either lol
  • Commodore 64 likely won't happen cause of the same licensing issues that resulted in C64 VC being removed early on Wii VC
  • Virtual Boy is a wild card but I could see it happening
  • Gamecube (and also Wii, 3DS and Wii U) are port/remaster territory for sure now - given how many GCN titles we seem to be getting brought over now
  • Satellaview might pose major issues due to preservation and licensing
  • N64DD should really happen, as there's only a few titles on that to begin with and it would just be integrated into the N64 NSO app
  • and then any other platform is a complete wild card that probably isn't likely but are fun to speculate on (Game & Watch? Atari consoles? Wonderswan? 3DO?)
 
Not frustrated or anything, I have plenty of games to play but imo they are really slow. We should have got more N64 titles this year and GBA. They really are taking their time.
 
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