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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is just Beyond the Present

What is the big day 1 launch game for successor of the Nintendo Switch System?

  • 3D Mario

    Votes: 234 78.5%

  • 2D Mario

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • New Donkey Kong

    Votes: 5 1.7%

  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond

    Votes: 27 9.1%

  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A

    Votes: 4 1.3%

  • Star Fox

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • New IP

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • Mario Kart

    Votes: 19 6.4%

  • Super Smash Bros

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • Splatoon

    Votes: 1 0.3%

  • Animal Crossing

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • New Zelda

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Total voters
    298
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Neoxon said:
This only adds to my doubt that Nintendo will announce the Switch 2 this year. The Switch 1 is clearly still selling, & Nintendo probably wants it to have one last holiday season in the sun before the successor is revealed.
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Which studios would you like to work with Nintendo on a new ip for the Next Gen?
 
honestly, nothing is safe at EPD

  • 3D Mario got an outsourced pint-sized project in Bowser's Fury
  • Zelda gets a lot of its modern identity from Monolith
  • Animal Crossing Pocket Camp was NDCube (lol)
  • Mario Kart as a series has a lot of history with Bandai Namco

technically the safest bet for a series to stay primarily internal for the next few years is Splatoon, which is too young to have any history of being contracted out. that can change in an instant though, and I suspect it will
 
Raccoon said:
honestly, nothing is safe at EPD

  • 3D Mario got an outsourced pint-sized project in Bowser's Fury
  • Zelda gets a lot of its modern identity from Monolith
  • Animal Crossing Pocket Camp was NDCube (lol)
  • Mario Kart as a series has a lot of history with Bandai Namco

technically the safest bet for a series to stay primarily internal for the next few years is Splatoon, which is too young to have any history of being contracted out. that can change in an instant though, and I suspect it will
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Well, technically splatoon is already outsourced by monolith since the first one.
 
Neoxon said:
This only adds to my doubt that Nintendo will announce the Switch 2 this year. The Switch 1 is clearly still selling, & Nintendo probably wants it to have one last holiday season in the sun before the successor is revealed.
Click to expand...

This just proves that their early holiday sales are working? I don't see how this rules out a switch 2 reveal in November
 
Raccoon said:
honestly, nothing is safe at EPD

  • 3D Mario got an outsourced pint-sized project in Bowser's Fury
  • Zelda gets a lot of its modern identity from Monolith
  • Animal Crossing Pocket Camp was NDCube (lol)
  • Mario Kart as a series has a lot of history with Bandai Namco

technically the safest bet for a series to stay primarily internal for the next few years is Splatoon, which is too young to have any history of being contracted out. that can change in an instant though, and I suspect it will
Click to expand...
ARMS I could also see being outsourced to Eighting (given their fighting game background), but Splatoon could be next if the series continues to stagnate in the West (hopefully that doesn’t happen).

monkeygotyou said:
This just proves that their early holiday sales are working? I don't see how this rules out a switch 2 reveal in November
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Like I said, this early holiday trend isn’t just Nintendo.
 
Neoxon said:
ARMS I could also see being outsourced to Eighting (given their fighting game background), but Splatoon could be next if the series continues to stagnate in the West (hopefully that doesn’t happen).


Like I said, this early holiday trend isn’t just Nintendo.
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Like I said earlier, they can have good sales and still announce a console. I think people are really overestimating a console announcement's effect on sales

(not saying it will happen in November btw)
 
The bulk of yearly sales is usually from the Holiday period. Once that’s over, it’s a free for all.

But… does a considerable amount of sales happen in January-March? I ask because there’s a possibility Nintendo could unveil the successor in January-March period of 2024.
 
I mean Nintendo has said the holiday seasons is the most important to them. Idk why that’s being swept under the rug, for gamer analysis on what they think the impact of announcement will mean. If they don’t want to jeopardize any sales then they’ll wait. We can go on all we want about minimal impact, but they have a business and they want to maximize their holiday profits then so be it. I’m just saying Nintendo has mentioned multiple times how important the holiday sales are for them.

And what even constitutes an announcement? Them just telling investors “hey we got next gen coming next year” or them actually dropping a trailer of the system like they did for Switch.
 
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Raccoon said:
honestly, nothing is safe at EPD

  • 3D Mario got an outsourced pint-sized project in Bowser's Fury
  • Zelda gets a lot of its modern identity from Monolith
  • Animal Crossing Pocket Camp was NDCube (lol)
  • Mario Kart as a series has a lot of history with Bandai Namco

technically the safest bet for a series to stay primarily internal for the next few years is Splatoon, which is too young to have any history of being contracted out. that can change in an instant though, and I suspect it will
Click to expand...

I think EPD will always at least work on the mainline 3D Mario and Zelda games, even if they just outsource out parts of them.
 
Can we consider the possibility that a Switch 2 announcement actually bolsters software sales? I don't know if this has ever been the case before

What if they announce it as backwards compatible, and now a bunch of people want to catch up on switch games to feed their hype for the next gen
 
Neoxon said:
This only adds to my doubt that Nintendo will announce the Switch 2 this year. The Switch 1 is clearly still selling, & Nintendo probably wants it to have one last holiday season in the sun before the successor is revealed.
Click to expand...

Yeah a 2023 reveal is out of the question at this point, Team 2024 reveal winning
 
Saying EPD outsources Zelda to Monolithsoft is like me saying that I outsource my work Washington DC work to my co-worker New York. We both work at the same damn company and it makes sense to work on projects together because we have different expertise.
 
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I think it's time i have you remember how the Switch was done:

Announcement (PR release) -> Reveal (Video) -> Launch Event (January 2017)

If something happens in 2023, it would only be the first one.
 
Neoxon said:
This only adds to my doubt that Nintendo will announce the Switch 2 this year. The Switch 1 is clearly still selling, & Nintendo probably wants it to have one last holiday season in the sun before the successor is revealed.
Click to expand...

It's not something they can decide to change so late because "wow, sales are still so high".
They've either planned to reveal it this year or early next year, but this decision has been made long ago and won't be affected by current Switch sales numbers. This isn't a simple software reveal/launch.
 
Bonejack said:
I think it's time i have you remember how the Switch was done:

Announcement (PR release) -> Reveal (Video) -> Launch Event (January 2017)

If something happens in 2023, it would only be the first one.
Click to expand...

Switch technically was Reveal (October 2016) -> Launch Event (January 2017)

NX codename was announced before though
 
Bonejack said:
I think it's time i have you remember how the Switch was done:

Announcement (PR release) -> Reveal (Video) -> Launch Event (January 2017)

If something happens in 2023, it would only be the first one.
Click to expand...
I’m starting to incline into that. I also think they’ll be vague and not directly relate the Swith’s successor with the Switch itself. We’ll either see:
• Nintendo next generation console will be released in the Fiscal Year ending in March 2025

Or:

• The next generation of the Nintendo Switch family of consoles will be released in the FY ending in March 2025
 
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Bonejack said:
I think it's time i have you remember how the Switch was done:

Announcement (PR release) -> Reveal (Video) -> Launch Event (January 2017)

If something happens in 2023, it would only be the first one.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the reveal wasn’t out of the blue.

We had a confirmed spring 2017 release and the buzz from insiders was that the reveal would be September 2016 but this turned out to be October 2016 in the end.
 
Switch 2 announcement before the end of the year, alongside simultaneous price cut of OG Switch as drastic as $80 or even $100 across all SKUs, V2 Switch discontinued production so buy it while you still can, OLED and Lite remain in production.

There, a pipe dream that'll never come true.
 
Though, i think i also need to share my timeline as a proud Team ASAP + H1 2024 member:

Announcement (PR) - either November 2023, or January 2024

Reveal Event - March 2024

Launch - May or June 2024
 
The best case I could see is an announcement to their investors, in November, of having next gen coming out in the following year. No name or videos, just telling their investors.
 
GamerJM said:
I think EPD will always at least work on the mainline 3D Mario and Zelda games, even if they just outsource out parts of them.
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I agree this is a given, but we also have a great example of what future codev could look like. Pikmin 4 exists in this quantum realm of being led by Nintendo, to the point that they basically pretend they made it in their developer interview PR, while having a significant majority (iirc) of the work coming from Eighting.

NST is, from my understanding, too small for such a model to be practical for a wholly original flagship 3D Mario at this point, but that could change in time. the two modern Zeldas are trickier for me to comment on as I don't have a good understanding of the staff breakdown there, but to my memory one of Monolith's Tokyo groups is a significant contributor
 
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People must remember we are in a very different situation as to what we were in 2016.

The NX was revealed in 2015 and we knew the NX was releasing in March 2017 as far back as April 2016. We currently have no such information regarding Switch 2 hardware. We don't even have any official confirmation it exists.

There was a reason for Nintendo to spring up the reveal and release so quickly in 2016 (Wii U). There is no reason for them to do the same in 2023 when their main focus continues to be Switch 1. The most I can see is Nintendo announcing they are working on new hardware in November, then have a blowout reveal later on in early 2024, with a Mid/late 2024 release.
 
The reason why the next 3D Mario is taking so long is because they don't want to use any "outsourcing" for the project. It's Koizumi and the 10 guys at the desks next to him all working on every aspect of the game. They do the design, the concept art, the programming, the playtesting. But not only that, they also do all of the voice acting (in all languages), motion capture, music. They are manufacturing the Switch 2 cartridges themselves using materials they mined from the ground with their own hands. For the marketing, Koizumi is just gonna stand on the streets of Tokyo and hand out flyers. No outsourcing whatsoever. Just exclusive, internal development and hard work.
 
Bonejack said:
Though, i think i also need to share my timeline as a proud Team ASAP + H1 2024 member:

Announcement (PR) - either November 2023, or January 2024

Reveal Event - March 2024

Launch - May or June 2024
Click to expand...
qwerp said:
People must remember we are in a very different situation as to what we were in 2016.

The NX was revealed in 2015 and we knew the NX was releasing in March 2017 as far back as April 2016. We currently have no such information regarding Switch 2 hardware. We don't even have any official confirmation it exists.

There was a reason for Nintendo to spring up the reveal and release so quickly in 2016 (Wii U). There is no reason for them to do the same in 2023 when their main focus continues to be Switch 1. The most I can see is Nintendo announcing they are working on new hardware in November, then have a blowout reveal later on in early 2024, with a Mid/late 2024 release.
Click to expand...
what makes a November reveal possible? does that line up with an investment quarter ending?
 
Octavian said:
what makes a November reveal possible? does that line up with an investment quarter ending?
Click to expand...
Yes, as the Switch was revealed shortly before the investment quarter ending in 2016.

I can see it happening again this year (an announcement, not a reveal trailer) so investors are kept calm and won't keeping asking "whens new hardware coming out?"
 
There's no way we get a 2023 reveal.

I'm sure Nintendo wants one more holiday season just for the Switch. Announcing a new system before then would sabotage Switch holiday sales.

With the Switch reveal, the Wii U was already dead in the water and had no hope for a holiday sales surge anyway.
 
Neoxon said:
This only adds to my doubt that Nintendo will announce the Switch 2 this year. The Switch 1 is clearly still selling, & Nintendo probably wants it to have one last holiday season in the sun before the successor is revealed.
Click to expand...

Nintendo isn't going to change the release timeline just because Switch 1 sales is doing better than expected.

Keep in mind Nintendo has forecasted 15m Switch sales numbers this fiscal year; I forgot who brought it up here on Famiboards but it was said that figure seems to be lowballing, despite Switch 1 sales being on a trajectory better than that 15m forecast. I think implying that Nintendo still expects Switch 1 sales numbers to fall somewhat sharply, which is something that could happen if Nintendo happens to announce Switch 2 at some point this fiscal year.

Switch bundles are being advertised heavily and early. They already have price drops baked into the bundle.. instead of $299, you're getting the console for $240, with a $60 game.
 
artistic intent is really difficult to surmise in video games, and anything else with 3D computer imagery

like, Mario 64 is a classic, right? and almost all of its textures came from a commercially available suite. how much credit does Nintendo deserve for the look of that game? it's tough to say

in a painting, sure, the canvas, paints, and brushes likely didn't come from the artist. but every detail was done very deliberately. every inch is filled with artistic intent

on the other hand, how about a film? in a good one every frame of every shot may be a painting, but that painting is made of real objects. some are crafted for the purpose, but most just exist. anything that includes a building, skyline, or any real environment didn't come from them. it's about the choice of existing things, and composing them together in a deliberate way

so I guess the moral of the story is that Mario 64 is a movie and those crusty 90s textures its props
 
Octavian said:
what's the next one after that? I don't see any type of reveal happening until after the holiday season, they should be worried about one eating into the Switch's last holiday
Click to expand...
Which is why there are a number of us saying wait and see what happen in November; if nothing happens, then we probably should not expect anything to happen until March at worst. Nothing in December, January, Feb.
 
darthdiablo said:
Nintendo isn't going to change the release timeline just because Switch 1 sales is doing better than expected.

Keep in mind Nintendo has forecasted 15m Switch sales numbers this fiscal year; I forgot who brought it up here on Famiboards but it was said that figure seems to be lowballing, despite Switch 1 sales being on a trajectory better than that 15m forecast. I think implying that Nintendo still expects Switch 1 sales numbers to fall somewhat sharply, which is something that could happen if Nintendo happens to announce Switch 2 at some point this fiscal year.

Switch bundles are being advertised heavily and early. They already have price drops baked into the bundle.. instead of $299, you're getting the console for $240, with a $60 game.
Click to expand...
I never said that, whatever their plans are have been set in stone a while ago. I’m just saying that these are the kind of numbers Nintendo was likely hoping for when making their transition plans, so they wouldn’t have put them in danger by announcing the Switch 2 during the holiday season.
 
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I think we all agree that at minimum we will get 2 announcements.

A HW reveal trailer showcasing full name, new features such as screen size, new joycons, etc and (probably) confirming BC.

A SW presentation/direct showing mostly FY2024/25 titles.

What is also possible to happen:

A PR release announcement before HW reveal trailer confirming that a new HW will be release at FY2024/25.

A second SW presentation/direct a little prior to Switch NG release (lets say the usual september direct spot) focusing in H1 2025 stuff.
 
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lemonfresh said:
Are investors really going to drop off if they dont reveal the switch 2? lol. I highly doubt that I don't think Nintendo is in a rush to reveal it
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Its only a rush if they're intent on releasing it in March.

I also don't think any reveal/announcement would be for the sake of investors, more for the sake of consumers. Investors already know a Switch 2 is happening eventually (if they don't, they're a bad investor), so any form of an announcement would be (imo) solely for developing interest and hype.
 
monkeygotyou said:
Its only a rush if they're intent on releasing it in March.

I also don't think any reveal/announcement would be for the sake of investors, more for the sake of consumers. Investors already know a Switch 2 is happening eventually (if they don't, they're a bad investor), so any form of an announcement would be (imo) solely for developing interest and hype.
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Yeah but people are pushing the reveal to be at or around the investors conference is why i'm saying that
 
HockeyBird said:
The reason why the next 3D Mario is taking so long is because they don't want to use any "outsourcing" for the project. It's Koizumi and the 10 guys at the desks next to him all working on every aspect of the game. They do the design, the concept art, the programming, the playtesting. But not only that, they also do all of the voice acting (in all languages), motion capture, music. They are manufacturing the Switch 2 cartridges themselves using materials they mined from the ground with their own hands. For the marketing, Koizumi is just gonna stand on the streets of Tokyo and hand out flyers. No outsourcing whatsoever. Just exclusive, internal development and hard work.
Click to expand...
this made me laugh hard. Thank you
 
They already have moved up their Holiday plans, I’m not entirely sure why people are thinking that a announcement of any kind in November would hurt Holiday sales when they could be doing it earlier specifically to avoid that issue.

Something that should be noted is that all of the bundles that released were on the 6th. The reveal could be on November 7th and that’ll give them exactly one full month of Holiday marketing specifically for Switch hardware. I don’t think that timing is a coincidence, there was no reason for them to release 4 different Switch bundles on the same day, especially when they’ve historically spread them out.

Anyway I think this specific conversation about eating into their Holiday says has been extended to its max with the current info we know. We’ve been repeating similar points for awhile now, and that probably won’t change until we reach November 7th, lol.
 
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