Raccoon
Fox Brigade
- Pronouns
- He/Him
it's really not
switch is doing quite well despite its age, so IF a successor is coming out in the latter half of the year there's no reason to announce it this soon. it'd be, y'know, premature
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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is just Beyond the Present
- Thread starter Josh5890
- Start date
switch is doing quite well despite its age, so IF a successor is coming out in the latter half of the year there's no reason to announce it this soon. it'd be, y'know, premature
qwerp
Moblin
That is entirely subjective. For Nintendo, as sales are going well and will continue to grow during the holidays, they might find it premature to reveal it next month, ESPECIALLY if it isn't even releasing until September.
They may have forecasted the recent good sales too, thus does not think an announcement is ready at the moment
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- They/Them
Lemonpastitsbest
Paraspikey
Boo
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If it's releasing in September, I think everyone agrees it wouldn't be announced this year, it wouldn't make a ton of sense at that point.
The thing is, it's not like the Switch 2 is likely to fail. They would have to mess up so incredibly badly for this to be another Wii U situation. They don't really need to wait until Switch hardware sales slow down since, as people said before, people buying it this late into the generation are likely not going to buy the Switch 2 close to launch anyway. The games coming out next year are clearly to satisfy Switch owners only instead of trying to bring in people they haven't already sold a Switch 2. I think that heavily implies they would want to reveal the system before the remake train starts. After Wonder, there isn't a known original blockbuster to look forward to.
At the point we're at, we basically have a 4-month period with only remakes, November - February, when that's what you're releasing during Winter, it just seems weird to me that they would want to hold off. I honestly think the possible original Switch-focused software they have left, like DK, would greatly benefit if we have the successor announced and if it's backward compatible.
The thing is, it's not like the Switch 2 is likely to fail. They would have to mess up so incredibly badly for this to be another Wii U situation. They don't really need to wait until Switch hardware sales slow down since, as people said before, people buying it this late into the generation are likely not going to buy the Switch 2 close to launch anyway. The games coming out next year are clearly to satisfy Switch owners only instead of trying to bring in people they haven't already sold a Switch 2. I think that heavily implies they would want to reveal the system before the remake train starts. After Wonder, there isn't a known original blockbuster to look forward to.
At the point we're at, we basically have a 4-month period with only remakes, November - February, when that's what you're releasing during Winter, it just seems weird to me that they would want to hold off. I honestly think the possible original Switch-focused software they have left, like DK, would greatly benefit if we have the successor announced and if it's backward compatible.
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HockeyBird
Villager
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- He/Him
Based on rumors, I'm assuming a second half 2024 launch. I know there is some speculation and rumors that it may release sooner, maybe in March. Obviously my thoughts on when they would announce the system would change based on that. But second half of 2024 seems like the more likely scenario based on what we have heard. If it does release in March, then yeah, they would need to reveal the system this year.
But overall, I think the Switch 2's release month is set and Nintendo has an idea of how many months of marketing lead up they want/need to do for it. If it is launching later in 2024, then I think Nintendo doesn't want or needs to market the console for nearly an entire year. So if that's the case, then I don't think they will reveal the console this year. They probably only want something like 6 or 7 months of lead up. So an announcement of Q1 next year is ample time for a later 2024 launch.
But overall, I think the Switch 2's release month is set and Nintendo has an idea of how many months of marketing lead up they want/need to do for it. If it is launching later in 2024, then I think Nintendo doesn't want or needs to market the console for nearly an entire year. So if that's the case, then I don't think they will reveal the console this year. They probably only want something like 6 or 7 months of lead up. So an announcement of Q1 next year is ample time for a later 2024 launch.
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P4bl0
Legend
It doesn’t really matter if it’s doing well or not it’s still in a downward sales curb for several years now, current sales has nothing to do with the successor plans at
this point
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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- He/Him
the switch has been doing well for a whileIt doesn’t really matter if it’s doing well or not it’s still in a downward sales curb for several years now, current sales has nothing to do with the successor plans at
this point
would you announce a new switch a year in advance in these circumstances?
justanotherperson
Octorok
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If you want a content drought at the start of the console's life, sure. If I was in charge of planning the release schedule I would do the following:
(2024)
September: 3D Mario + New IP
October: Remake (Kid Icarus or something)
November: Switch 2-exclusive DLC for Switch 1 game
December: Ring-Fit 2
(2025)
January & February: Small eShop titles
March: Metroid Prime 4
April: Nothing
May: Clubhouse Games
June: Animal Crossing
July: 3D Mario DLC
August: New Wario Land
September: Ring-Fit 2 DLC
October: 3D Kirby
November: Pokémon
December: Nothing
Splatoon, 2D Zelda and others I feel would be H1 2026 titles.
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- he/him
Why do they need to market Switch 2 for a full year when Switch 1 was marketed for only a couple of months before becoming one of the most successful Nintendo product ever?
P4bl0
Legend
The Switch is doing ok but still in a downward curb for several years
If they announce next month that wouldn’t be for a release a year away. 6 months away max, if they don’t then yeah Fall it is.
HockeyBird
Villager
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Sorry. Forgot to put in the word "doesn't" in there.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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let's assume, as the original post did, that a new console is coming holiday 2024
how would you describe an announcement in November 2023 for a November 2024 launch?
Xorhan
Magical Girls <3
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- He/Him
Thinking back on how Nintendo announced some games that were years away in the first year of the Switch (like Bayo3, MP4, Fire Emblem TH, and a mainline Pokemon game), I wonder if we'll see the same approach in the first year of Switch 2.
Granted, all of the games that I mentioned suffered from delays and troubled productions so the original plan was never to have fans wait years for them, but they were all announced without anything to show off, most often with just the idea that these games were in development for the Switch.
It's not that far off from how in the January 2013 Direct Nintendo announced various games for Wii U that would come to market years down the line because they were desperate to show that the console would actually get appealing games after its disappointing launch period.
Obviously, the situation was a little less dire with the Switch, and since 2021 they had 3 years of consistent software releases and most of their games are announced just months away from their release date, but who knows, maybe with a new console they will feel the need to show their hand more.
Granted, all of the games that I mentioned suffered from delays and troubled productions so the original plan was never to have fans wait years for them, but they were all announced without anything to show off, most often with just the idea that these games were in development for the Switch.
It's not that far off from how in the January 2013 Direct Nintendo announced various games for Wii U that would come to market years down the line because they were desperate to show that the console would actually get appealing games after its disappointing launch period.
Obviously, the situation was a little less dire with the Switch, and since 2021 they had 3 years of consistent software releases and most of their games are announced just months away from their release date, but who knows, maybe with a new console they will feel the need to show their hand more.
P4bl0
Legend
As I said a lot of times we have more evidence towards a H1 2024 launch than H2
Anyway if the reveal is next month that wouldn’t be for a H2 launch. And if we don’t get something by next month then H2 launch it is
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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- He/Him
(quoting from the other thread since I don't think my reply will be sufficiently on-topic)
I'm not sure that this is the case. According to Nintendo's strategy, a lot of sales at this point are existing purchases, either upgrading to the OLED model or getting a special edition. Either group, though moreso the former, could be deterred by the announcement of an imminent successor
Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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- He/Him
Idk, you always want to start your console out with a bang. Especially on a console where people will be hesitant to jump over right away if there isn't a ton of games. Maybe a light H1 2025 would be a bad move though. I'd do something like this:
2024:
September (Day One): 3D Mario, new IP from EPD4
October: Metroid Prime 4
November: Animal Crossing: New World
2025:
February: Fire Emblem Genealogy of the Holy War Remake
March: EPD8 Donkey Kong
May: Ring Fit Adventure 2
June: 3D Mario Expansion
July: Mario Sports
August: Astral Chain 2
September: Mario Kart X, Animal Crossing New World Expansion
October: Luigi's Mansion 4
November: Pokemon Gen 10
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- He
The Switch doing so well is a somewhat overrated talking point. The Switch has been declining for two years now in many major markets and more importantly the software sales are going down too. There's an element of covid that plays into this and ultimately the Switch is still seeing better twilight years than almost any console ever made, but the fact that software in 2022 was down for NA compared to 2021 was honestly a bit eyebrow raising considering how stacked 2022 was plus back catalog sales.
It's also a talking point that places too much importance on only Japan, since that's where most transparent data comes from and also where the Switch is actually doing better this year in hardware than last. But like, North America has been Nintendo's biggest market since the NES I'm pretty sure, so ....
It's also a talking point that places too much importance on only Japan, since that's where most transparent data comes from and also where the Switch is actually doing better this year in hardware than last. But like, North America has been Nintendo's biggest market since the NES I'm pretty sure, so ....
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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- He/Him
SO
THEREFORE
ahem excuse me
so therefore, if it were coming out in H2, as the original post said, then a reveal next month would be... premature, right? that seems to be what you're saying here more or less
HockeyBird
Villager
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- He/Him
Here's how I think the Switch 2's launch date was mostly decided:
"We want X amount of Switch 2s available at launch and over the following months and these titles from us to be ready in that same period. Based on the manufacturing and development pipelines, a second half 2024 launch is feasible. If we want X months of marketing, we will announce the system at this date in 2024. Meanwhile, our current system is still doing well, so lets continue to support it with new special editions and software that's already in development."
An oversimplification but I think that's the gist of it. The release date doesn't move based on how well or not well the current Switch is doing. It's about what they can prepare for launch.
"We want X amount of Switch 2s available at launch and over the following months and these titles from us to be ready in that same period. Based on the manufacturing and development pipelines, a second half 2024 launch is feasible. If we want X months of marketing, we will announce the system at this date in 2024. Meanwhile, our current system is still doing well, so lets continue to support it with new special editions and software that's already in development."
An oversimplification but I think that's the gist of it. The release date doesn't move based on how well or not well the current Switch is doing. It's about what they can prepare for launch.
Thunder84
Inkling
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- He/Him
There’s gonna be a big Pokemon game for 2024 no matter what. Releasing three major evergreen titles in a three month span, on top of a major AAA release in Metroid Prime 4, just doesn’t seem like the best plan of action to me.
There’s no huge rush to get Animal Crossing on the next console, just like there’s no rush for a new Mario Kart or Smash. As long as it’s there within the first couple years or so, that’ll be enough.
Neoxon
Like Like
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- He/Him
I don’t think we’re getting Splatoon 4 until at least 2027. And to be honest, it kinda needs that time to rest & come back with fresh new ideas. Any sooner & you’d risk another iterative sequel that’ll make the series further stagnate in the West.
FE Echoes Genealogy has reportedly been done for a good long while, so it likely isn’t cross-gen. Why wait until 2025 to launch it? As for Animal Crossing, that’ll probably be 2025. Even Pokémon might wait until 2026 to correlate with the franchise’s 30th anniversary like Sun/Moon did for the 25th.
Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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God I hope there isn't a Pokemon game in 2024. TPC needs to take a step back and fix their development process.
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Everybody Polkamon!
lemonfresh
#Team2024
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I think the rot is deep with gamefreak, they would need a tom to fix thier dev process if it's even fixable at this point or if time can even fix it
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I think the problem is they’re contractually bound to release a Pokémon game every year, correct? (Other than playing and enjoying Arceus, I’m not really familiar with Pokémon on an overall basis, not my usual cup of tea)
If that’s the case, it would make dev cycles always rushed and hectic.
LoneRanger
Chain Chomp
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- He/Him
Yeah, I can see Nintendo quickly releasing 3D Mario and a multiplayer based title in the same FY, their 3 biggest multiplayer centric titles are Animal Crossing, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. They were all released at different fiscal years (MK 2017/18, Smash 2018/19, AC 2019/20). Nintendo will surely do the same and launch all these 3 titles in FYs 2024/25, 2025/26 and 2026/27.
The very big question is in which order. Both Smash and AC DLC were finished at late 2021 while MK is finishing now but apparently is mainly made by Bandai-Namco.
- Pronouns
- He
I think there are three things that are more likely to happen than people think. Not saying they will happen but:
- The next mainline Pokemon (including remakes) is a Switch 2 exclusive
- Nintendo stops supporting the Switch with software a little faster than the 3DS
- I forgot the third thing
OctoSplattack
Tingle
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- He/Him
I don't believe that they're contractually bound so much as everyone involved is simply married to the notion that the ideal length for a Pokémon generation, in order to keep things fresh and interest high, is three years. So a lot of planning is done under the idea that Game Freak can manage that sort of schedule. Game Freak possibly could say "wait, no, maybe we need more time", which would lead to discussion about how to structure the upcoming generation across all media to account for that (let OLM know that they'll need to stretch out the next season, see if there's a team available to crank out a spin-off game, etc.). But that would require Game Freak executives to both 1) want to give the Pokémon teams more time to make Pokémon to begin with and 2) figure out that they need that extra dev time early enough in production that none of the various multimedia plans are set in stone yet.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I think you're getting it a bit mixed up
A new Pokemon generation isn't just a new game on a Nintendo console, it's all of the following
- A new generation of cards for the TCG
- A new generation for the anime
- A new generation for companies that make merchandise
So it's not specifically that they contractually HAVE to have a game every year, or that a generation HAS to come out every x years. It's more that once TPC sets a date for the game (probably 12-18 months out) the other productions start preparing for it. Delaying the game would also require a delay of everything else and that would be a disaster for all parties involved.
monkeygotyou
Do fairies have tails?
I'm confused with these,
It looks like they were Target and Walmart exclusive on October 6th and then to be released everywhere else November 3rd
Rooster
Chain Chomp
You are challenged by
Champion Weird Al!
Coco98bisFR
Octorok
- Pronouns
- Him
I like this kind of imaginary planning so here's mine :
September 2024 : Mario 3D + small game
October : Cross-gen Metroid Prime 4
November : Cross-gen Pokemon game / New IP ?
December : Nothing
I tried to make something for 2025 but it's actually pretty difficult, I imagined that it could have big titles like the Switch but the Switch back in 2017 basically had like Zelda BoTW, MK8DX, Splatoon 2, Arms, Mario Odyssey and Xenoblade 2, which is huge.
For 2025 I obvisouly see a new Mario Kart (spring) and an exclusive Pokemon game (Gen 10) for november. Then what ? I absolutely don't know.
- Maybe a Xenoblade X remaster for the 10-year anniversary of the original game like Xenoblade Remaster in 2020.
- A new Metroid 2D since the last one was released in 2021 already, but barely a year after Prime 4 so I don't know, they could keep it for later as well.
- A new 3D Kirby game ?
- Luigi's Mansion 4 by Next Level Games for Halloween ? But it seems to easy and I would be disappointed to see this be the first NLG on next-gen.
After all, I could see something like this:
- Winter : New IP
- Spring : Mario Kart
- Summer : Kirby, Xenoblade X Remaster
- Fall : Luigi's Mansion 4, Pokémon Gen 10
- I can't imagine the holiday 2024 Pokémon being Switch 2 exclusive, rather a cross-gen with a better resolution on next-gen. And then new-gen in 2025 being fully next-gen exclusive.
- Okay with that, it will probably stop early 2025.
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- Pronouns
- He
I could imagine there not being a mainline Pokemon game for 2024
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
I can’t wait to see the next 3D Mario. If it’s open world I can see it crossing the 30+ million line.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
what is this
How in the world is Mario Kart not like the no.1 priority at Nintendo.
It is the best selling game on the 3DS. Best selling game on the Wii U. Best selling game on the Switch. By a country mile (nothing is even within 10 million of it).
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe = 55.46 million copies
Versus the 3 highest selling Mario platformers on the Switch
Odyssey (24.66) + NSMBU Deluxe (16.17) + 3D World/Bowser's Fury (11.38) = 53.99 million copies.
lol, the THREE biggest Mario platformer games combined on the Switch cannot even match Mario Kart 8 Deluxe alone.
Mario Kart Next should be the no.1 priority at Nintendo frankly and it should have been in development if not already by 2021 then certainly in 2021 when they COVID restrictions allowed people back to work.
The DLC is just graphical paint jobs of existing tracks that can be done by a junior team, that shouldn't interfere with a new Mario Kart from the Mario Kart team proper.
Any year 1/year 2 Switch successor schedule without a new Mario Kart is pure incompetence at this point. It is their most popular IP that has gotten more popular with time, it is basically Nintendo's Grand Theft Auto at this point.
qwerp
Moblin
A new mario kart is absolutely a priority. It most likely is already done, but is just being sat on.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
When did Mario Kart become important?
Coco98bisFR
Octorok
- Pronouns
- Him
Oh, it would be unexpected, to be honest, but I don't think anyone would be disappointed. If they could only focus on new generations + Legends games, it would be perfect, I think. It would mean that Game Freak didn't release a new game between gen 9 and gen 10, which would be also surprising. No new game in 2024, nor 205, then a new gen in 2026 would be a dream coming true but let's not ask too much., No new game in 2024 would already be welcome.
Mario Kart Tour (the smartphone game) launched in 2019, so by 2021 at least they should have been starting planning and early development on MK Next/10 (whatever you want to call it).
By today this game should be 2+ years into development already and should be comfortably available to launch next fall with 16 tracks or so and more that can be added via DLC as time goes on.
If that's not the case, then Nintendo's planning for this next-generation is seriously problematic.
3D Mario is no where close to Mario Kart, no way. It's not 1996 anymore, and even in the 90s, Mario Kart 64 damn near caught Mario 64.
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Nintendo touched on that software situation in their fiscal briefings and suggested it was down to the differing regional appeal of titles. For 2022, Splatoon and Pokemon performed disproportionately well in Japan, while Kirby and Switch Sports overshot Nitnendo's expectations in Europe. North America didn't have an equivalent brand outperforming internal expectations; if Tears of the Kingdom had launched in 2022, that may well have been the disproportionately popular title in that market.
As it is, sure, new hardware is only a matter of time and I'd be beyond surprised if it's not in our hands within 12 months given that Switch is declining and that decline will accelerate. But in the immediate context of the next few months, Switch being meaningfully successful right now is absolutely a valid reason to keep marketing focus on that device and its games until Nintendo are ready to talk new hardware. Outside of this forum's hardware speculation thread, there's little meaningful pressure for Nintendo to start talking immediately.
Paraspikey
Boo
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- He/Him
While I do think plans for a game next year (Black and White remakes) were already set before Scarlet and Violet came out, I do think that in 2025, the only game we could get is the rumored Black and White Legends game, and then in 2026 we get Generation 10. Pure speculation that's mostly baseless, but I can absolutely see them start using spinoffs as a way to get the yearly releases out without worrying about a mainline game, if they don't want to hire more employees to make sure the workload they're forcing onto employees can be met with quality standards in mind, they can at least give them more time.
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- He
I don't disagree with any of this to be clear. I'm just giving context because I think a lot of forum discussions are based off people having an incomplete picture. People think the Switch doing disproportionately well in Japan / setting records = Switch isn't declining. Or at the very least they think data suggests there is essentially no noticeable decline. That actually isn't true though, so I wrote a comment explaining how it's more complex then that. Nintendo's explanation for software declines is also most likely only part of the picture, because we're actually seeing this exact same thing happen this year. Pretty much any smaller release from Nintendo is underperforming (or overperforming because it never blew up to begin with in a territory, i.e. Pikmin 4). It's only the absolutely huge releases like Zelda that are overperforming, which speaks to the kind of software decline you'd expect of a console in its twilight years.
My point wasn't really that the Switch is declining enough to where they need to announce a new one soon. I don't think it is. Like I said, it's still one of the best performing consoles of all time relative to how old it is. I'm just saying that the picture that the Switch is just as healthy as ever, or isn't declining much, isn't really accurate. It's holding incredibly well for how old it is, but it's a mistake to only look at certain data to form a picture. I guess what I'm saying is it's not so much the given reason for why Nintendo will hold out (the Switch still being incredibly popular) that's overexaggerated, but the way people come to that conclusion.
qwerp
Moblin
I wouldn't be surprised if planning begun after ARMS wrapped up in 2017. Tour was also handled by DeNA and bandai, seems like the MK team mainly supervised that game, so there has been plenty of resources to develop a new entry
I think the Booster Course Pass is very telling that there will be no new retro tracks in the new game, and that the Mario Kart formula will be changed up a lot compared to the most recent iterations.
It pretty much is established now as Nintendo's biggest IP.
Best selling game in three straight generations now for Nintendo.
And you want it early in the product cycle, waiting until the mid-point for Mario Kart 8 hurt the Wii U badly.
Switch 2 is already going to be launching at a disadvantage with no BOTW type Zelda game, no Mario Kart early on would be a massive, massive mistake on Nintendo's part.
It's not 1996 anymore, a 3D Mario is not going to carry your system on your back, and frankly even Mario 64 needed a lot of help from Mario Kart 64 early on too ... Mario Kart 64 outsold Mario 64 in Japan and helped the N64 tremendously early on.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
- Pronouns
- He/Him
finally, someone else who thinks this
I doubt the "no new retro tracks" part. Get ready for them to drip feed that same content again, just now in 4K DLSS maybe with ray tracing reflections turned on in some tracks and whatever new gameplay gimmick they have (water karts? dual racers again?).
Nintendo is going to lock people in to NSO subscriptions with Mario Kart DLC probably throughout all of the Switch 2's life.
Which is also another reason you want Mario Kart Next early in the product cycle even ideally day 1.
Mario Kart is going to become the centerpiece of DLC content to keep as many subscribers locked in as possible for as long as possible. So I think the opposite ... get ready for like 5-6 years of DLC.
I think they will go all in on the "Nintendo Kart" idea too ... get ready for DLC packs for specific Nintendo IP (Zelda, Animal Crossing, F-Zero, Kirby, Pokemon, Splatoon, Xenoblade, etc.). Not just one track but like 3-4 for each Nintendo IP.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
EPDooming, really? This is basically an objection to development logistics; like saying nothing is safe at Naughty Dog because 200 people from ND were joined by 1000 outsourced staff when making Last of Us (or whatever the figures were - the real tragedy at ND is how they treat their contractors when shit hits the fan).
And? It was a freebie in a port, probably outsourced entirely because the next 3D Mario is EPD Tokyo's focus (along with their 2D project). And it's a disservice to 1UP, the actual 3D Mario co-developer for the last decade, to act as if this arrangement is somehow resulting in games that are smaller in scope or quality, or to use Bowser's Fury, a bonus freebie, as proof of that. It's a particularly weak example to bring up because it likely demonstrates just how Nintendo conserve EPD's resources to focus on their prestige titles.
Zelda gets a lot of its modern identity from a man who joined Nintendo's internal development set up 20 years ago and has worked on the series since the late 90s, starting at Capcom. Roughly 100 Monolith Soft staff worked on Tears of the Kingdom, out of a total team in the region of 800 staff; and I think (someone please correct me if you have the numbers) around 300 of those were EPD.
??? How is this relevant?
Sure, in arcades, and for development support; not in the creative direction of the series nor in terms of control and primary development.
I get that new hardware generation has everyone stir crazy, and that the forum has actually needed to be reorganised, but come on gang. Put your energy into something less reliant on misrepresenting reality. And, I know it's not your intention, but posts like this rub me up the wrong way because they overlook how valuable creative collaboration can be, and it unintentionally demeans the work that support studios, co-developers and contractors put into these games. Without them, we don't get this stuff. It's one reason I'm glad Nintendo don't go in for the kind of studio branding shenanigans Sony and others push (though I do wish Nintendo forced their studios to credit everyone who worked on a game; stares at Metroid).
