StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Skittzo]

Anyone have an opinion on this? I heard of this guy from RGT85. Apparently Nintendo filed a patent for BOTW2 that was approved recently, but the patent also came with schematics of a Switch(@ 5:15 mark), which this guy says is indicative of a specialty OLED model similar to the Splatoon OLED model (or BOTW2 Drake edition). Any thoughts? A BOTW2 OLED edition? Or a BOTW2 Drake edition?… or both?

Nah it means nothing. Patent drawings are only relevant for the instant subject matter being patented. They wouldn't slip an as yet unrevealed design in a completely unrelated patent.

 

[ShadowFox08]

I suspect that 16GB RAM is very much on the table for the successor, and would feel (quietly) confident about that. 12GB is the cellar of expectation, and I don't see it being lower than that. 8GB is too conservative, given what we know about the rest of the SoC, about developer feedback, etc., and it won't be enough, unless they want to sell a product destined to fail. Some flagship phones have had 12GB since 2019, then gaming phones have had 16GB. 18GB is a thing, even - that's been in production since March 2021, and it will have been for at least two years by the time the next platform arrives. In fact, earlier this year, the OnePlus 10T 5G was confirmed to have 16GB, and it won't be long before more flagship phones follow. Steam Deck, with its weaker SoC, has 16GB. Steam Deck isn't going to sell anywhere near what a Switch has. I would be very surprised if it reached Wii U sales. So, the reasoning follows that Nintendo can have 16GB at a better rate, as they're expected to sell more hardware. BTW, in the Samsung Galaxy Note 20 Ultra's BoM from 2020, 12GB LPDDR5 RAM with 128GB UFS 3.0 was $61.50. One imagines such a bundle with 16GB might be similar to that now. Still, if 16GB is in the devkits, why not? 4GB was in the Switch devkits and in the launch product. At the time, 4GB was the standard in flagship phones, but it's also true that the PS4 was going to go with 4GB RAM until the last minute, until developers said more is needed. I suspect it will be 16GB because some phones are already there, SD is there, and developer feedback suggests that they'll go for it. The confidence is there, too. Also, 16GB LPDDR5 RAM has been in production for over two years, with gains over the 12GB in bandwidth, efficiency, battery life, and performance.

I don't have much confidence it will be 16GB. Would be awesome if we get it.. But I have my doubts. For one, I don't think it needs to match the same amount as PS5/X Series S, and it might not really benefit from it (diminishing returns), especially if the OS continues to be barebones or 2GB. Also important to mention Series S's RAM is paltry and meant for 1k-1440p gaming, so Drake doesn't really need to go beyond it and match Series X, as it will be around Series S in the near case scenario with a 5nm TSMC chip, or less powerful in GPU.

Also Drake's OS will be much more efficient/performant than Steam Deck, so less RAM will be needed. Kind of like iphone vs Android phones. 2GB for a more robust OS and video playback with 10 GB for games would be more than enough vs last gen ps4 and xbone.

Secondly.. It's more expensive than 12GB or less and it takes up a higher power draw and potentially more space. If Nintendo sees no use from it from a performance and cost perspective, they likely won't put it in. It's not completely out of the picture though, but seems as likely as 8GB to me. Really hoping for 12GB at least. I'm not expecting 16GB, but would love to be wrong. Just not crossing my fingers for it.

 

[Gay Bowser]

It’s going to be 8GB.

The new iPhones coming out tomorrow have 6GB. 8GB is fine. Nintendo’s never going to chase specs in the same way other companies do, and that’s fine.

You can expect 16GB, but you’ll be disappointed. Same as if you expect 256GB of internal storage.

The new Switch will not be “destined to fail” if it has 8GB of RAM. The vast, vast, vast majority of buyers will never know how much RAM the Switch has, nor care. Its success or lack thereof will be borne out of its games, just like every other system.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It’s going to be 8GB.

The new iPhones coming out tomorrow have 6GB. 8GB is fine. Nintendo’s never going to chase specs in the same way other companies do, and that’s fine.

You can expect 16GB, but you’ll be disappointed. Same as if you expect 256GB of internal storage.

The new Switch will not be “destined to fail” if it has 8GB of RAM. The vast, vast, vast majority of buyers will never know how much RAM the Switch has, nor care. Its success or lack thereof will be borne out of its games, just like every other system.

given known (keyword here) info, 8GB isn't exactly doable at the moment. filling out 128-bit busses would require 64-bit 4GB chips which aren't in production (as far as we know, an important note). we know there are 64-bit 6GB chips, which would give 12GB.

again, this is predicated on there not being any 128-bit 8GB chips or 64-bit 4GB chips at the moment

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

It’s going to be 8GB.

The new iPhones coming out tomorrow have 6GB. 8GB is fine. Nintendo’s never going to chase specs in the same way other companies do, and that’s fine.

You can expect 16GB, but you’ll be disappointed. Same as if you expect 256GB of internal storage.

The new Switch will not be “destined to fail” if it has 8GB of RAM. The vast, vast, vast majority of buyers will never know how much RAM the Switch has, nor care. Its success or lack thereof will be borne out of its games, just like every other system.

I think we need to better contextualize it though, the amount of RAM that the next device will have is entirely dependent on what is available from the manufacturers.

 

[Pokemaniac]

It’s going to be 8GB.

The new iPhones coming out tomorrow have 6GB. 8GB is fine. Nintendo’s never going to chase specs in the same way other companies do, and that’s fine.

You can expect 16GB, but you’ll be disappointed. Same as if you expect 256GB of internal storage.

The new Switch will not be “destined to fail” if it has 8GB of RAM. The vast, vast, vast majority of buyers will never know how much RAM the Switch has, nor care. Its success or lack thereof will be borne out of its games, just like every other system.

In addition to the previously mentioned points about chip availability, Nintendo is also sort of known to splurge on RAM frequently.

 

[supmo]

for the nintendo direct or new hardware?

guessing on something to happen one month later and on a sunday seems risky.

nintendo direct

 

[RainTech]

Instead of forcing the most RAM possible, Nintendo/Nvidia should focus on maximising memory bandwidth. I'd take less RAM (8gb) with high bandwidth over anything else. RAM Bandwidth is one of Switches serious bottlenecks.

 

[Kenka]

I suspect that 16GB RAM is very much on the table for the successor, and would feel (quietly) confident about that. 12GB is the cellar of expectation, and I don't see it being lower than that. 8GB is too conservative, given what we know about the rest of the SoC, about developer feedback, etc., and it won't be enough, unless they want to sell a product destined to fail. Some flagship phones have had 12GB since 2019, then gaming phones have had 16GB. 18GB is a thing, even - that's been in production since March 2021, and it will have been for at least two years by the time the next platform arrives. In fact, earlier this year, the OnePlus 10T 5G was confirmed to have 16GB, and it won't be long before more flagship phones follow. Steam Deck, with its weaker SoC, has 16GB. Steam Deck isn't going to sell anywhere near what a Switch has. I would be very surprised if it reached Wii U sales. So, the reasoning follows that Nintendo can have 16GB at a better rate, as they're expected to sell more hardware. BTW, in the Samsung Galxy Note 20 Ultra's BoM from 2020, 12GB LPDDR5 RAM with 128GB UFS 3.0 was $61.50. One imagines such a bundle with 16GB might be similar to that now. Still, if 16GB is in the devkits, why not? 4GB was in the Switch devkits and in the launch product. At the time, 4GB was the standard in flagship phones, but it's also true that the PS4 was going to go with 4GB RAM until the last minute, until developers said more is needed. I suspect it will be 16GB because some phones are already there, SD is there, and developer feedback suggests that they'll go for it. The confidence is there, too. Also, 16GB LPDDR5 RAM has been in production for over two years, with gains over the 12GB in bandwidth, efficiency, battery life, and performance.

Sadly, bandwidth is still unknown. If we had some information about it, we could at least do educated guesses about the RAM pool size but alas, that's not even the case. There seems to be a consensus around 8 GB of DDR5 RAM in dual channel (102 GB/s)

 

[Skittzo]

Instead of forcing the most RAM possible, Nintendo/Nvidia should focus on maximising memory bandwidth. I'd take less RAM (8gb) with high bandwidth over anything else. RAM Bandwidth is one of Switches serious bottlenecks.

AFAIK it's not really an either or. Bandwidth has different limitations than RAM size, you can't really trade one for the other.

Sadly, bandwidth is still unknown. If we had some information about it, we could at least do educated guesses about the RAM pool size but alas, that's not even the case. There seems to be a consensus around 8 GB of DDR5 RAM in dual channel (102 GB/s)

The bus width was in the leak though, right?

 

[Stinky Horse]

The bus width was in the leak though, right?

Not sure about that. IIRC there was just evidence that it wasn't 256 bit. But I could only see it being 64 bit if they deactivated a bunch of SMs or ran it slower than Switch.

 

[Skittzo]

Not sure about that. IIRC there was just evidence that it wasn't 256 bit. But I could only see it being 64 bit if they deactivated a bunch of SMs or ran it slower than Switch.

I thought people were treating it like it was known to be 128 bit.

 

[YolkFolk]

I suspect that 16GB RAM is very much on the table for the successor, and would feel (quietly) confident about that. 12GB is the cellar of expectation, and I don't see it being lower than that. 8GB is too conservative, given what we know about the rest of the SoC, about developer feedback, etc., and it won't be enough, unless they want to sell a product destined to fail. Some flagship phones have had 12GB since 2019, then gaming phones have had 16GB. 18GB is a thing, even - that's been in production since March 2021, and it will have been for at least two years by the time the next platform arrives. In fact, earlier this year, the OnePlus 10T 5G was confirmed to have 16GB, and it won't be long before more flagship phones follow. Steam Deck, with its weaker SoC, has 16GB. Steam Deck isn't going to sell anywhere near what a Switch has. I would be very surprised if it reached Wii U sales. So, the reasoning follows that Nintendo can have 16GB at a better rate, as they're expected to sell more hardware. BTW, in the Samsung Galaxy Note 20 Ultra's BoM from 2020, 12GB LPDDR5 RAM with 128GB UFS 3.0 was $61.50. One imagines such a bundle with 16GB might be similar to that now. Still, if 16GB is in the devkits, why not? 4GB was in the Switch devkits and in the launch product. At the time, 4GB was the standard in flagship phones, but it's also true that the PS4 was going to go with 4GB RAM until the last minute, until developers said more is needed. I suspect it will be 16GB because some phones are already there, SD is there, and developer feedback suggests that they'll go for it. The confidence is there, too. Also, 16GB LPDDR5 RAM has been in production for over two years, with gains over the 12GB in bandwidth, efficiency, battery life, and performance.

This just gives false hope to people and yourself. The odds of 16GB of RAM are low.

 

[Stinky Horse]

I thought people were treating it like it was known to be 128 bit.

They are! And it makes sense for the size of the Drake gpu if that's what it's going to be, afaik there's no [direct] evidence though.

 

[Mr Swine]

Much more likely that Nintendo goes with a single 6GB 64 bit LPDDR5 module and call out a day if 12GB is off the tables

 

[Stinky Horse]

Much more likely that Nintendo goes with a single 6GB 64 bit LPDDR5 module and call out a day if 12GB is off the tables

The phones people are talking about are using 64 bit 12GB packages afaik.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Not sure about that. IIRC there was just evidence that it wasn't 256 bit. But I could only see it being 64 bit if they deactivated a bunch of SMs or ran it slower than Switch.

If I remember correctly it was a frame buffer partition that Thraktor inquired from LIC about ORIN which was 2, as a 256 bit interface while Drake only asked for one frame buffer partition being half of what ORIN was using so the conclusion was 128 bit.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Wouldn't it have to be USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 (20 Gbps), not 3.1 Gen 2/3.2 Gen 2x1 (10 Gbps) to enable 4k/60 (which needs 12.54 Gbps according to wiki)? ...and yes, USB 3 naming is stupid. Edit: And I keep making edits cause I have to reread the wiki page to get it straight! Again, USB 3 naming is stupid.

famiboards.com

https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...evision-of-the-previous-thread.55/post-188702

Instead of forcing the most RAM possible, Nintendo/Nvidia should focus on maximising memory bandwidth. I'd take less RAM (8gb) with high bandwidth over anything else. RAM Bandwidth is one of Switches serious bottlenecks.

I’m more curious if they’re going to have an SLC, which can actually reduce the bandwidth concerns of the system.

ORiN has a 4MB of SLC to it, maybe this remained? It can certainly help the system. 4 or more.

I wouldn’t bank on it but just interesting to note about this, as this wouldn’t really be present in the API I think, at least based on what we know. This would be separate from the GPU of course as well so it wouldn’t be present in the same way really.


Not only that, but it also makes the device more efficient.

 

[Stinky Horse]

If I remember correctly it was a frame buffer partition that Thraktor inquired from LIC about ORIN which was 2, as a 256 bit interface while Drake only asked for one frame buffer partition being half of what ORIN was using so the conclusion was 128 bit.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Wouldn't it have to be USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 (20 Gbps), not 3.1 Gen 2/3.2 Gen 2x1 (10 Gbps) to enable 4k/60 (which needs 12.54 Gbps according to wiki)? ...and yes, USB 3 naming is stupid. Edit: And I keep making edits cause I have to reread the wiki page to get it straight! Again, USB 3 naming is stupid.

famiboards.com

https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...evision-of-the-previous-thread.55/post-188702

It's not like you can have half a frame buffer.

I don't want to push the idea of it being 64bit, but if people want to use phones as a comparison, rather than say, Steam Deck, they should realise phones are still on 64 bit bus like they were when Switch came out. I think as a hybrid system 128bit makes sense, it could probably get by at 50% speed in portable mode if they needed it to.

Of course me saying this on the eve of an Apple announcement is probably going to be a bad idea.

 

[Simba1]

I suspect that 16GB RAM is very much on the table for the successor, and would feel (quietly) confident about that. 12GB is the cellar of expectation, and I don't see it being lower than that. 8GB is too conservative, given what we know about the rest of the SoC, about developer feedback, etc., and it won't be enough, unless they want to sell a product destined to fail. Some flagship phones have had 12GB since 2019, then gaming phones have had 16GB. 18GB is a thing, even - that's been in production since March 2021, and it will have been for at least two years by the time the next platform arrives. In fact, earlier this year, the OnePlus 10T 5G was confirmed to have 16GB, and it won't be long before more flagship phones follow. Steam Deck, with its weaker SoC, has 16GB. Steam Deck isn't going to sell anywhere near what a Switch has. I would be very surprised if it reached Wii U sales. So, the reasoning follows that Nintendo can have 16GB at a better rate, as they're expected to sell more hardware. BTW, in the Samsung Galaxy Note 20 Ultra's BoM from 2020, 12GB LPDDR5 RAM with 128GB UFS 3.0 was $61.50. One imagines such a bundle with 16GB might be similar to that now. Still, if 16GB is in the devkits, why not? 4GB was in the Switch devkits and in the launch product. At the time, 4GB was the standard in flagship phones, but it's also true that the PS4 was going to go with 4GB RAM until the last minute, until developers said more is needed. I suspect it will be 16GB because some phones are already there, SD is there, and developer feedback suggests that they'll go for it. The confidence is there, too. Also, 16GB LPDDR5 RAM has been in production for over two years, with gains over the 12GB in bandwidth, efficiency, battery life, and performance.

Point is that there is no need for 16GB of RAM for Drake Switch hardware, Switch isnt PC, dont even need same amount of RAM like PS5/XSX because not only is weaker hardware but also totally different type of configuration.
12GB of RAM for something like Drake hardware would be more than enough, even 8GB would be enough (around 7GB for games),
but I would said that something like 10GB would be sweet spot (8.5-9GB of RAM for games, that would make around 3x more RAM for games compared to current Switch).

Yes more RAM is always better, but more RAM raises costs and Nintendo doesnt love to raise costs if they dont need it,
especially now when costs of parts and manufacture costs are constantly raising, and when again they will try to have affordable price point and in same time selling it with profit.

Realistically everything from 8GB to 12GB could be expected.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It's not like you can have half a frame buffer.

I don't want to push the idea of it being 64bit, but if people want to use phones as a comparison, rather than say, Steam Deck, they should realise phones are still on 64 bit bus like they were when Switch came out. I think as a hybrid system 128bit makes sense, it could probably get by at 50% speed in portable mode if they needed it to.

Of course me saying this on the eve of an Apple announcement is probably going to be a bad idea.

Question is , how much do you pull from mobile phones and how much do you pull from Orin? They're both on opposite ends of Drake's needs

 

[Concernt]

Instead of forcing the most RAM possible, Nintendo/Nvidia should focus on maximising memory bandwidth. I'd take less RAM (8gb) with high bandwidth over anything else. RAM Bandwidth is one of Switches serious bottlenecks.

12GB with two modules gives the most bandwidth under 16GB of any currently available 128bit LPDDR RAM configuration.

By your own logic, that would imply they'll use 12.

 

[Concernt]

Sadly, bandwidth is still unknown. If we had some information about it, we could at least do educated guesses about the RAM pool size but alas, that's not even the case. There seems to be a consensus around 8 GB of DDR5 RAM in dual channel (102 GB/s)

There is more consensus around 12GB of LPDDR5 RAM. I actually haven't heard anything about it being 8GB other than speculation, while supposed developer contacts here and elsewhere keep saying 12.

 

[Kenka]

There is more consensus around 12GB of LPDDR5 RAM. I actually haven't heard anything about it being 8GB other than speculation, while supposed developer contacts here and elsewhere keep saying 12.

Do you have a source ? I am regular in this thread and haven't seen any rumor implying 12 GB.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Do you have a source ? I am regular in this thread and haven't seen any rumor implying 12 GB.

there isn't any source for 12GB other than Polygon's claim

 

[YugamiSekai]

Well I'm officially off the 2022 team.

 

[Skittzo]

Well I'm officially off the 2022 team.

This is likely the model Funcle referred to back in April.

 

[Jaytra]

Well I'm officially off the 2022 team.

Was this what factory uncle was referring to lol

 

[Foltzie]

there isn't any source for 12GB other than Polygon's claim

Isn’t it also based on what’s available at wholesale in the correct bus width.

 

[pelusilla6]

Fuck. And I'm even more pissed off because its so damm cool

 

[RainTech]

12GB with two modules gives the most bandwidth under 16GB of any currently available 128bit LPDDR RAM configuration.

By your own logic, that would imply they'll use 12.

Who knows what they'll do. Whatever is needed to get the most bandwidth IMO makes the most sense (As long as it dosen't break the bank)

 

[Bonejack]

Yeah, i guess with that Pokemon OLED special edition i do think there's no way Drake could be 2022.

Not that i think they would "delay"/move it because of a special edition, but this launching in November is, well, taking the last possible spot for a release in 2022.

OH well, 2023 coming soon.

 

[arsen]

Already gave hopes for 2022 last month, at this point all I want is a proper announcement.

 

[Link_enfant]

Are there still reasonable reasons to be confident for a 2022 Drake announcement?
Or should I start crying then get over it right now as we're probably getting a very good Direct after all?

 

[LoneRanger]

SNK says tech limitations holding back Switch ports of King of Fighters XIV and XV

SNK has spoken about why The King of Fighters XIV and King of Fighters XV have yet to appear on Nintendo Switch.

nintendoeverything.com

If they can not solve that issue (probably a memory limitation) I think we will see KoF15 and next Fatal Fury on next Switch HW asap.

 

[Skittzo]

Are there still reasonable reasons to be confident for a 2022 Drake announcement?
Or should I start crying then get over it right now as we're probably getting a very good Direct after all?

Nah IMO if it's not releasing this year which at this point seems extremely likely, I wouldn't expect an announcement this year.

 

[Bonejack]

Already gave hopes for 2022 last month, at this point all I want is a proper announcement.

I'm fairly sure they won't announce it in 2022 for a 2023 release.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Isn’t it also based on what’s available at wholesale in the correct bus width.

yes, at 128-bit, the options are 12 and 16 GB unless a company announces 4GB 64-bit chips. but I think at that point manufactures would just use LPDDR4X

 

[Mr Swine]

Well I'm officially off the 2022 team.

I’m on the team September 2023 announcement since it’s not likely to come out any time soon

 

[Concernt]

Nah IMO if it's not releasing this year which at this point seems extremely likely, I wouldn't expect an announcement this year.

I'm fairly sure they won't announce it in 2022 for a 2023 release.

Nintendo Switch was revealed in October for a March release. 3DS and Wii U were both revealed around a year before launch with a holiday season between announcement and release.
GameCube too. GBA, I believe.

This isn't unprecedented, if this is positioned as a Switch 2 with an early 2023 release, I would be quietly confident in a 2022 reveal.

I'd also like to note that like before, Nintendo has announced and released special editions of their previous consoles and announced and released the next console within weeks or months of each other, like Smash Bros 3DS XL and the New 3DS, or Monster Hunter Switch and OLED Model.

I feel like this page is all doom and gloom all of a sudden. We had a good thing going there the last few pages.

 

[PashArcade]

Well I'm officially off the 2022 team.

I'm thinking of March 2023 announcement, full reveal at E3, and finally releasing at Holiday 2023, succeeding the Switch

 

[Skittzo]

Nintendo Switch was revealed in October for a March release. 3DS and Wii U were both revealed around a year before launch with a holiday season between announcement and release.
GameCube too. GBA, I believe.

This isn't unprecedented, if this is positioned as a Switch 2 with an early 2023 release, I would be quietly confident in a 2022 reveal.

I'd also like to note that like before, Nintendo has announced and released special editions of their previous consoles and announced and released the next console within weeks or months of each other, like Smash Bros 3DS XL and the New 3DS, or Monster Hunter Switch and OLED Model.

I feel like this page is all doom and gloom all of a sudden. We had a good thing going there the last few pages.

It's a very, very different situation now. They're going heavy on the holiday season marketing for a number of very big games including a new Pokemon gen. To suck away all of that hype by saying "hey, an even better model will be coming in the Spring! Save your money!!" is the absolute antithesis of how Nintendo operates.

I'm extremely confident that we're not getting an announcement in 2022.

Not sure why that's doom and gloom exactly, I still think H1 2023 for launch is likely.

 

[Gianko]

So I was right…

 

[YolkFolk]

Nintendo Switch was revealed in October for a March release. 3DS and Wii U were both revealed around a year before launch with a holiday season between announcement and release.
GameCube too. GBA, I believe.

Some issues here though…

Switch didn’t have a predecessor which was selling extremely well. It didn’t matter when they announced it.

You’re also listing historic consoles. The marketing of such devices has changed considerably during that time. The Nintendo 64 was announced over 2 years before it came out. That would never happen now.

 

[PashArcade]

Nintendo Switch was revealed in October for a March release. 3DS and Wii U were both revealed around a year before launch with a holiday season between announcement and release.
GameCube too. GBA, I believe.

This isn't unprecedented, if this is positioned as a Switch 2 with an early 2023 release, I would be quietly confident in a 2022 reveal.

I'd also like to note that like before, Nintendo has announced and released special editions of their previous consoles and announced and released the next console within weeks or months of each other, like Smash Bros 3DS XL and the New 3DS, or Monster Hunter Switch and OLED Model.

I feel like this page is all doom and gloom all of a sudden. We had a good thing going there the last few pages.

1) Different scenario, Wii U was already a dying console, revleaing in October that year wouldn't make a difference, unlike the Switch, which still has plenty of momentum, and speaking of momentum

2) They will for sure carry the momentum with BoTW2 special edition next spring, saving the Switch 2 for something even bigger, probably the next 3D Mario

 

[arsen]

So I was right…

there is nothing impressive in predicting a non-launch in 2022, most peoples here were talking about 2023

 

[Mobius]

damn so this is the new hardware announced in September, team 2022 is taking the L

 

[DariliumA]

Nintendo’s marketing schedule is a real mystery lol

 

[robertman2]

...people were seriously expecting 2022?

 

[DariliumA]

...people were seriously expecting 2022?

There was no way the system would be out this year, this was clear as soon as we knew BOTW2 wasn’t cutting 2022.

 

[Kenka]

...people were seriously expecting 2022?

Fellows were expecting a presentation this year, yes. Not a full blown release.