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I thought “gag order” or NDA was standard procedure?
It's probably a more severe or stronger agreement in this case. I'm sure they have a base level of NDA written into their contracts but it's probably the type of thing that you'd get written up for only, or maybe even just talked to by your boss. They probably added a new more strict rule that would terminate employment or even open you up to legal action if broken.

For the record I don't think this necessarily means anything really when it comes to Drake, it's probably just a new thing Nintendo is implementing on all of their Chinese contractors and partners, considering they did recently explicitly mention that they were taking steps to address and limit leaks coming from China.
 
My overall thoughts:

  • Production is entering full swing shortly.
  • Showcase in early 2023. It will show off upcoming software, price, features ect. The usual spiel. Will be billed as a true successor not a pro edition like some believe.
  • Zelda, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon 2023 are cross gen
  • 3D Mario, MK 9 and the majority of other future core iterations are next generation exclusive.
  • It will have some of the greatest Japanese 3rd party support not seen since the PS1/PS2. They will effectively have their boot on Sonys throat in the east. This was always coming I feel.
  • Western pubs will stay somewhat stubborn as usual. They might get thrown a bone here and there like GTA5 or a COD or something.
  • The OG Switch will get phased out, OLED will take its place. The Lite will outlive them both as a budget option for quite a while.
  • There won't be a digital only version until later on in its lifespan, maybe Switch 2 lite?
  • The UI will bring back the charm of the Wii U/3DS and bring in party chat, controller headphone jack, other parity features.
  • Game boxes will use a different color but remain the same dimensionally. Game cards the same size just higher capacity.
  • Fully backwards compatible
  • Switch online will be improved and retro content within the subscription service will roll forwards.

A small part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is what I actually see happening regardless of my own opinion.
 
If this is a revision, then wouldn’t the announcement and subsequent release be a shorter window than if this is a new generation? I’m talking in terms of inventory. How many New 3DSs were made/shipped before launch vs the OG 3DS launch? I would imagine a new gen would have to stock pile more inventory before launch. If Drake is entering production now, the announcement may be sooner or later depending how Nintendo markets this.

Side note: if this is truly a revision, then I hope Nintendo waits for Nvidia Atlan (or an SoC similar in power to it) to be released for Switch 2. 🤤
 
My overall thoughts:

  • Production is entering full swing shortly.
  • Showcase in early 2023. It will show off upcoming software, price, features ect. The usual spiel. Will be billed as a true successor not a pro edition like some believe.
  • Zelda, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon 2023 are cross gen
  • 3D Mario, MK 9 and the majority of other future core iterations are next generation exclusive.
  • It will have some of the greatest Japanese 3rd party support not seen since the PS1/PS2. They will effectively have their boot on Sonys throat in the east. This was always coming I feel.
  • Western pubs will stay somewhat stubborn as usual. They might get thrown a bone here and there like GTA5 or a COD or something.
  • The OG Switch will get phased out, OLED will take its place. The Lite will outlive them both as a budget option for quite a while.
  • There won't be a digital only version until later on in its lifespan, maybe Switch 2 lite?
  • The UI will bring back the charm of the Wii U/3DS and bring in party chat, controller headphone jack, other parity features.
  • Game boxes will use a different color but remain the same dimensionally. Game cards the same size just higher capacity.
  • Fully backwards compatible
  • Switch online will be improved and retro content within the subscription service will roll forwards.

A small part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is what I actually see happening regardless of my own opinion.
Black and White 2 were on ds. If the Switch 2 is backwards compatible I see no reason for them to make another SKU.

A (slow, messy) interface like the one on Wii U and 3ds would go completely against the minimalism and resource optimization focus of the current OS. I expect the Switch 2 not to reinvent the wheel and just iterate on what they currently have (I can see them make the mobile app obsolete though)
 
My overall thoughts:

  • Production is entering full swing shortly.
  • Showcase in early 2023. It will show off upcoming software, price, features ect. The usual spiel. Will be billed as a true successor not a pro edition like some believe.
  • Zelda, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon 2023 are cross gen
  • 3D Mario, MK 9 and the majority of other future core iterations are next generation exclusive.
  • It will have some of the greatest Japanese 3rd party support not seen since the PS1/PS2. They will effectively have their boot on Sonys throat in the east. This was always coming I feel.
  • Western pubs will stay somewhat stubborn as usual. They might get thrown a bone here and there like GTA5 or a COD or something.
  • The OG Switch will get phased out, OLED will take its place. The Lite will outlive them both as a budget option for quite a while.
  • There won't be a digital only version until later on in its lifespan, maybe Switch 2 lite?
  • The UI will bring back the charm of the Wii U/3DS and bring in party chat, controller headphone jack, other parity features.
  • Game boxes will use a different color but remain the same dimensionally. Game cards the same size just higher capacity.
  • Fully backwards compatible
  • Switch online will be improved and retro content within the subscription service will roll forwards.

A small part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is what I actually see happening regardless of my own opinion.
You say a showcase in early 2023, but what release date were you thinking?

I find it hard to believe that Splatoon 3 would be coming now if a "true successor" is right around the corner
 
You say a showcase in early 2023, but what release date were you thinking?

I find it hard to believe that Splatoon 3 would be coming now if a "true successor" is right around the corner
I don't know, I feel like it would be a good way to show commitment to the iterative (but not Pro) hardware model.
 
You say a showcase in early 2023, but what release date were you thinking?

I find it hard to believe that Splatoon 3 would be coming now if a "true successor" is right around the corner
It is important for Nintendo to consolidate Splatoon as a 10M+ franchise, releasing Splatoon 3 now to keep up with the momentum of Splatoon 2 made sense. Also due to the nature of the game even if it released once Drake is out it would be cross-gen to have as big of an userbase as possible
 
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Whether it is a pro or numbered machine I don’t think it really matters, mostly, if they release software before hardware is out. There will probably be a cross-gen period anyway so software released now can still benefit.
My overall thoughts:

  • Production is entering full swing shortly.
  • Showcase in early 2023. It will show off upcoming software, price, features ect. The usual spiel. Will be billed as a true successor not a pro edition like some believe.
  • Zelda, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon 2023 are cross gen
  • 3D Mario, MK 9 and the majority of other future core iterations are next generation exclusive. The only one I disagree with here is 3D Mario. I could see that being cross-gen among a host of other software. I give the cross-gen period ~2yrs then we start seeing more exclusives.
  • It will have some of the greatest Japanese 3rd party support not seen since the PS1/PS2. They will effectively have their boot on Sonys throat in the east. This was always coming I feel. Sony frankly doesn’t care with a handful of exceptions. As long as they get those then JP can rot in their eyes. Their new development investments are in China.
  • Western pubs will stay somewhat stubborn as usual. They might get thrown a bone here and there like GTA5 or a COD or something.
  • The OG Switch will get phased out, OLED will take its place. The Lite will outlive them both as a budget option for quite a while. The Lite is already having issues selling so by the time OG Switch gets phased out I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets axed as well.
  • There won't be a digital only version until later on in its lifespan, maybe Switch 2 lite?
  • The UI will bring back the charm of the Wii U/3DS and bring in party chat, controller headphone jack, other parity features.
  • Game boxes will use a different color but remain the same dimensionally. Game cards the same size just higher capacity.
  • Fully backwards compatible
  • Switch online will be improved and retro content within the subscription service will roll forwards.

A small part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is what I actually see happening regardless of my own opinion.
 
Check the giveaway on the box -
Probably nothing, but interesting in that it's on a mockup for what appears to be an upcoming product. The mockup could be BS too.
 
My overall thoughts:

  • Production is entering full swing shortly.
  • Showcase in early 2023. It will show off upcoming software, price, features ect. The usual spiel. Will be billed as a true successor not a pro edition like some believe.
  • Zelda, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon 2023 are cross gen
  • 3D Mario, MK 9 and the majority of other future core iterations are next generation exclusive.
  • It will have some of the greatest Japanese 3rd party support not seen since the PS1/PS2. They will effectively have their boot on Sonys throat in the east. This was always coming I feel.
  • Western pubs will stay somewhat stubborn as usual. They might get thrown a bone here and there like GTA5 or a COD or something.
  • The OG Switch will get phased out, OLED will take its place. The Lite will outlive them both as a budget option for quite a while.
  • There won't be a digital only version until later on in its lifespan, maybe Switch 2 lite?
  • The UI will bring back the charm of the Wii U/3DS and bring in party chat, controller headphone jack, other parity features.
  • Game boxes will use a different color but remain the same dimensionally. Game cards the same size just higher capacity.
  • Fully backwards compatible
  • Switch online will be improved and retro content within the subscription service will roll forwards.

A small part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is what I actually see happening regardless of my own opinion.
I don‘t think that they will move on from current Switch that fast. Regardless of the marketing of that new hardware I expect them to release all Nintendo titles on the current switch for at least until end 2024.
 
@Dakhil posted this on discord. it confirmed a lot of my suspicions about their mobile ray tracing solution
  • probe-based, not unlike Nvidia's RTXGI. this makes it quite scalable according to Nvidia's claims. Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition and Dying Light 2 also uses this method
  • Imagination's demos were running on PC and they don't have any physical hardware. said hardware is expected around Q3 2023
  • they're also demonstrating this with Tencent, whom were at the ARM Immortalis announcement. they might have a proper game with RT early next year


You say a showcase in early 2023, but what release date were you thinking?

I find it hard to believe that Splatoon 3 would be coming now if a "true successor" is right around the corner
why would it be hard to believe when you can just make a 4K patch?
 
You say a showcase in early 2023, but what release date were you thinking?

I find it hard to believe that Splatoon 3 would be coming now if a "true successor" is right around the corner

Cross Gen could be a factor here. The 3DS got huge games in it's twilight years even after the Switch came out. Actually, so did the DS before it.

People seem to expect Nintendo to leave the Switch out to dry like it's don't it's home consoles, but nothing about a sequel coming next year seems out of the ordinary if you think of their handheld strategy.
 
starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me
being a live game is what allows it to overcome dead systems though. Fortnite spans two console generations, as does Apex Legends, Overwatch, etc. Grand Theft Auto spans 3 generations! same with Skyrim; not a service game, but it goes to show you that people don't care where and when the game released, if there's still reason to play it, they'll play it on the new systems.

EDIT: there's 30K people playing skyrim on steam right now, for a game that's gonna be 11 years old this year. I'm certain console players are still playing it too, otherwise they wouldn't have put out anniversary edition
 
starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me
You can just move that live service game onto the new platform if everything goes smoothly. Besides if new hardware is hard to acquire/supply, especially for an extended period of time, people gotta play it somewhere.
 
Earlier someone mentioned this can be a 'soft-launch' of next-gen and I like that premise.

Switch Super is released as an enhanced model sold alongside the current Switch until the original model is phased out, then it becomes the lead platform. No more starting a new gen from scratch. Ideally by the time Super exclusives start releasing, its userbase has sufficiently grown.

Wouldn't put it past Nintendo to keep denying it's Switch 2, until the very moment it becomes Switch 2.
Hardware wise Drake fits the bill, and I can imagine they want to squeeze every drop out of that chip with respect to longevity.
 
starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me
But Switch 1 will get games for years, even after Switch 2 releases.
Nintendo won't give up on their 110+ million userbase like that. There is no reason why something like a new Mario Party can't release on both, even if it's like 2025.
 
Earlier someone mentioned this can be a 'soft-launch' of next-gen and I like that premise.

Switch Super is released as an enhanced model sold alongside the current Switch until the original model is phased out, then it becomes the lead platform. No more starting a new gen from scratch. Ideally by the time Super exclusives start releasing, its userbase has sufficiently grown.

Wouldn't put it past Nintendo to keep denying it's Switch 2, until the very moment it becomes Switch 2.
There is no reason to deny it being Switch 2, Nintendo will prefer consumers to buy the new console that will get support during a longer period of time. You can have a soft-launch like Xbox Series without lying about it being a successor

But Switch 1 will get games for years, even after Switch 2 releases.
Nintendo won't give up on their 110+ million userbase like that. There is no reason why something like a new Mario Party can't release on both, even if it's like 2025.
You could say the same about PS4 vs PS5, at one point the 110m+ userbase will not be an active 110m+ userbase.
 
If the new hardware really is there to completely replace the Switch then only like with an extensive cross gen phase. But we‘ll see. I‘m still not sure how much next gen this hardware is. They could very well position it anyware between a DSi over DS to a GBA over Gameboy type of upgrade.
 
Earlier someone mentioned this can be a 'soft-launch' of next-gen and I like that premise.

Switch Super is released as an enhanced model sold alongside the current Switch until the original model is phased out, then it becomes the lead platform. No more starting a new gen from scratch. Ideally by the time Super exclusives start releasing, its userbase has sufficiently grown.

Wouldn't put it past Nintendo to keep denying it's Switch 2, until the very moment it becomes Switch 2.
Hardware wise Drake fits the bill, and I can imagine they want to squeeze every drop out of that chip with respect to longevity.
That makes a lot of sense to me.
 
starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me
Which is why despite believing it is in production, I very much believe it will be billed as merely a revision/new option to start with and end up succeeding it, like SNES, GBC and DS before it. All of them launched as new "options", but soon made apparent they are their own beasts with their own games.
 
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okay well then I'm not on board

I don't think they're going to replace or demote the switch family until splatoon has finished out its life
That depends on how you define "Switch family". All indications point towards it being more of a continuation or increase in scope than a true new beginning, as is the case for basically any successor console these days. It'll replace the Switch hardware, but I view it really as more of the start of a new generation in the same family.
starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me
Live games are exactly the sort of thing that can most easily incorporate new hardware.
 
But Switch 1 will get games for years, even after Switch 2 releases.
Nintendo won't give up on their 110+ million userbase like that. There is no reason why something like a new Mario Party can't release on both, even if it's like 2025.
I mean at some point they are gonna have to pull the plug on catering to the Switch. They’ll be a cross-gen period but once that period ends then people will have to “upgrade.” Much like what we saw from 3DS & PS4-PS5.
 
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Did they say when exactly Zelda was coming or just "spring 2023"? They could launch Zelda and Super Switch in May or June technically. If they give us the announcement trailer in January and do a full blowout presentation in March I could see that lining up.

Moreover, the whole idea of cross-gen is sort of making me think a bit. Do they do two skus or does Drake enhance the games somehow with a disclaimer on the box 🤔

I am a little biased when it comes to the idea of a new gen. I say that as someone who had a Wii U early on so while the Switch is a newer concept the gameplay/graphics are similar and so is the library to a degree. Its great for people who came from Wii and 3DS because they never got to play those games but I'm ready for another leap. Not a new 3ds style iteration.

I know horsepower isn't everything and I'm just as excited about what other tricks they have up their sleeves. I'm dying to see how they innovate this time, what they could achieve with a lot more artistic freedom. I just don't think they're gonna poop out a Switch 1.5 and call it a day. I would lay money on it.
 
There is no reason to deny it being Switch 2, Nintendo will prefer consumers to buy the new console that will get support during a longer period of time. You can have a soft-launch like Xbox Series without lying about it being a successor
You're right, what I meant was they'll say "this is not an immediate replacement" that makes Switch 1 obsolete.

I do think they will market this as the 'next' Switch. Third-party exclusives will make its upgrade from the original obvious, alongside the enhancements to Switch games. Ever since we've been speculating about Drake's capabilities I would hope Nintendo doesn't downplay this device.
That depends on how you define "Switch family". All indications point towards it being more of a continuation or increase in scope than a true new beginning, as is the case for basically any successor console these days. It'll replace the Switch hardware, but I view it really as more of the start of a new generation in the same family.
Like the GBA.
 
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starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me

If the new console is reverse compatible I think it could work out just fine. What seemed weird to me is how a console could release without much exclusive content but they even managed that with the PS5 and demand seems strong (except for Japan)

It could even help in Nintendo's selling strategy. Keep interest in lategame Switch high while keeping initial interest in a new console low to be able to manage the stock better. Isn't that what the PS5 tries as well?
 
Ubisoft supported the Wii until 2020 with the Just Dance franchise. I don't see why they would pull the plug early on their casual games, especially since that audience tends to appear later on the lifecycle.
 
If the new console is reverse compatible I think it could work out just fine. What seemed weird to me is how a console could release without much exclusive content but they even managed that with the PS5 and demand seems strong (except for Japan)
PS5 demand* in Japan has no issues it sells out everytime, just like both Switch/Xbox*. Also Switch OLED are selling out everywhere without even better performance lol

*scalping and weak yen makes us unable to know if the demand is by real consumers, such hypothesis exists due to really low software numbers the worst of any mainstream console ever but isn’t nothing close to confirmed.
 
Did they say when exactly Zelda was coming or just "spring 2023"? They could launch Zelda and Super Switch in May or June technically. If they give us the announcement trailer in January and do a full blowout presentation in March I could see that lining up.

Moreover, the whole idea of cross-gen is sort of making me think a bit. Do they do two skus or does Drake enhance the games somehow with a disclaimer on the box 🤔

I am a little biased when it comes to the idea of a new gen. I say that as someone who had a Wii U early on so while the Switch is a newer concept the gameplay/graphics are similar and so is the library to a degree. Its great for people who came from Wii and 3DS because they never got to play those games but I'm ready for another leap. Not a new 3ds style iteration.

I know horsepower isn't everything and I'm just as excited about what other tricks they have up their sleeves. I'm dying to see how they innovate this time, what they could achieve with a lot more artistic freedom. I just don't think they're gonna poop out a Switch 1.5 and call it a day. I would lay money on it.
I'm not expecting separate SKUs. PS5 demonstrates why that's a bad idea.
 
I'm not expecting separate SKUs. PS5 demonstrates why that's a bad idea.
This is especially an issue in Japan which due to weird laws, any ‘upgrade’ would cost 100 yens even if free everywhere else. We don’t know how Switch vs Drake SKUs will work so is hard to judge it but off Japan alone I think they will avoid it
 
I don't think we'll see separate skus for the same game ala PS4 and PS5. Zelda will come in a Switch box and let's say a hypothetical GTA5 Drake port will come in a Drake box. The former runs on both and the later is exclusive. Simple really. That's if they keep the naming convention simple and not like DS/3DS or Wii/Wii U.

Super Switch, Switch Ultra or Switch 2. Please Nintendo for the love of everything holy. Don't mess up the name, that's not exactly something you can unfuck later on.
 
There's something I'd like to add to this and speculate on if I may.

I know when previously talking of chip tape out timelines and the amount of work a node shrink would take we have been assuming typical ways of working for nvidia, but I read an article regarding nvidia using AI in chip design recently and one of the articles I read specifically mentioned node shrinks but I can't find it now, here's a similar one.


With nvidia using AI to reduce the time it takes to design chips, for me, it becomes more feasible for them to have shifted nodes. Its precisely the kind of work you would use an AI for, despite the article not mentioning it explicitly.

In fact, this could have been tested or been in development when Erista was shrunk to Mariko. If an early sample did exhibit unfavourable results and they were thinking of moving nodes, plus either Samsung wants to sell 5nm capacity or nvidia has excess tsmc 5nm capacity the burden in terms of engineer time to shrink the existing chip or even move across lithography is reduced.

To summarise, I don't think the notion that they couldn't possibly move nodes at a year before mass production etc holds any more with how chip design is changing.
Thanks great piece of data to think about. Yeah I know from tape out to shelves was reduced to just 6 months with the RTX 3080, and that is a very big and complex chip compared to what we expect Drake to be. Tape out can take some time from the initial design, but in a die shrink, you accelerate design through tape out anyways, so I do think it's very possible to shrink a die in a year, in fact Mariko might have only taken a year, as there is only 18 months between Erista and Mariko.
 
Live service/multiplayer games don't really mean much in the grand scheme of things.

There are some that keep bringing up Splatoon 3 or Mario Kart dlc like it's going to affect drakes release timing. These two consoles can coexist for years in parallel. Nintendo did used to support two different hardware lines at once. Online has a shelf life either way if you look at it since publishers shut down access after just a few years in some cases now.
 
Reggie confirmed in an interview that as recently as 2019, Nintendo was developing an adaptive controller akin to Microsoft’s version with the added benefit of it working across the Switch, PlayStation, and Xbox. That would’ve been cool to see from them.
 
Reggie confirmed in an interview that as recently as 2019, Nintendo was developing an adaptive controller akin to Microsoft’s version with the added benefit of it working across the Switch, PlayStation, and Xbox. That would’ve been cool to see from them.

I'd love to see their take on accessible controllers. The more options available the better.

Just occured to me, they should open up the labo tech as a system wide feature for homemade adaptive controllers.
 
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starting a live game within a year of your platform being replaced just seems weird to me

I don't see Nintendo launching a $400-500 system and expecting it to replace the current Switch soon. We all know this isn’t coming in at $300-350 given the OLED Model pricing, and that $300-and-under price feels essential to Nintendo's lineup.

From a first party side I’m suspecting an Xbox One (Switch) to Xbox Series X (Drake) situation, except if Microsoft had continued to market and sell One X for a another 2-3 years as the entry level device, as opposed to dropping it and creating Series S. I understand that this has major implications around dealing with the hardware limits of the OG Switch, but Nintendo has never shied away from developing on older tech.

Assuming I'm right with the above, I'm interested to see:
  1. How first party titles will differ between platforms. Will we just be seeing Sunbreak on PC with DLSS types of experiences for Drake, or will they go a step further on changes? Improved textures? Limited application of RT?
  2. Will Drake transition to a $300-350 device? If so, when and how? Nintendo's gone the entire generation without dropping the Switch price.
 
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[*]Will Drake transition to a $300-350 device? If so, when and how? Nintendo's gone the entire generation without dropping the Switch price.
In both cases: that's more the consumer's decision than Nintendo's. If somehow Drake starts out $800 and still sells everything, it would stay there.
 
In both cases: that's more the consumer's decision than Nintendo's. If somehow Drake starts out $800 and still sells everything, it would stay there.
Nintendo made the Lite even if at that time Switch was still selling out, it is important for Nintendo to not price themselves out of some demographics. I think they will try to find a way to sell Drake for 350$ at least, I don’t expect price drops though in any case they will give out free bundles, profit margins of modern hardware are too low to allow for big price drops without making revisions
 
I think Nintendo's not going to have any problems selling new hardware at $449.99, especially with inflation still happening.
 
I'd easily pay $450 for a PS4+ level handheld with DLSS in the body of a Switch OLED + HDR. It's only $50 more than the cheapest Steam Deck, which doesn't bundle a dock. I know I'm part of the problem.

Maybe the Drake die shrinks will end up being a Switch Lite that can dock, and a Switch Pocket with clickable circle pads, letting them reach that $250-$300 price range. I only bring this up because I would buy all of these theoretical handhelds.
 
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DS is Nintendo’s most successful piece of hardware. It’s successor, 3DS, didn’t perform well out of the gate for several reasons and one of those reasons was the increased price. It turns out the lower price had been one of the key factors for driving sales with the original DS. Who would have thought?

Would a $400-$450 price point impact the success of a more powerful Switch machine after the early adopters have taken their slice of the pie?
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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