StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[karmitt]

I think Nintendo's not going to have any problems selling new hardware at $449.99, especially with inflation still happening.

If you're commenting on my post - no doubt in my mind that they'll start selling the device at $450 or even $500 and do well.

My question was more about the future state for Drake assuming Nintendo does intend for it to replace the current Switch models. They're currently servicing $200, $300 and $350 price points; Surely they won't erase all of those for a single $450 piece of hardware in 2-3 years time? I'm just curious how things will look in the future.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Price is only a mayor issue if the perceived value isnt there, Nintendo charged premium prices for WiiU and 3DS, when most of their audience was not willing to pay premium for the 3D Screen and the GamePad.

If they can sell a 350 SWOLED in 21/22, they can def. sell a Switch 2/Drake for for 400/450 and there is a large audience willing to spent premium for a new Nintendo system that provides a next-gen jump. Its all about the value proposition, price doesnt exists in a vacuum.

The last couple years have actually shown that the market was willing to spent more on a Switch than on Xbox One and PS4, or at least as much depending on the Region. If traditional "old" systems like PS5/XSX can be sold for 500, i dont think a Hybrid capable of 4K output would need to be sold for sub400, thats not the market exception outside of people that just think Nintendo will be cheap + use outdated hardware.
Which seems unlikely, especially when they still have the OG Switch lineup as an cheaper entry point.

 

[Spork4000]

DS is Nintendo’s most successful piece of hardware. It’s successor, 3DS, didn’t perform well out of the gate for several reasons and one of those reasons was the increased price. It turns out the lower price had been one of the key factors for driving sales with the original DS. Who would have thought?

Would a $400-$450 price point impact the success of a more powerful Switch machine after the early adopters have taken their slice of the pie?

I doubt it, the price wasn't the only reason the 3DS stumbled out of the gate. It had a dire launch line up and a gimmick that was unappealing at best, and painful at worst. Hell the thing had a warning on it against kids under seven using it.

Not to mention it had a bit of the same issue as the wii u, with people not knowing it was a sequel to the DS, but a new version like the DSi.

A Switch 2 that is clearly communicated as a Switch 2 would do great at anything less than $500 imo, but a lower price is always better.

If you're commenting on my post - no doubt in my mind that they'll start selling the device at $450 or even $500 and do well.

My question was more about the future state for Drake assuming Nintendo does intend for it to replace the current Switch models. They're currently servicing $200, $300 and $350 price points; Surely they won't erase all of those for a single $450 piece of hardware in 2-3 years time? I'm just curious how things will look in the future.

I mean, people said the same thing about the $80 2DS, hell people thought the Switch would be DOA at above $250, and look how that turned out.

 

[cw_sasuke]

DS is the best selling piece of Nintendo hardware, its not the most successful one - thats the Switch.

If you're commenting on my post - no doubt in my mind that they'll start selling the device at $450 or even $500 and do well.

My question was more about the future state for Drake assuming Nintendo does intend for it to replace the current Switch models. They're currently servicing $200, $300 and $350 price points; Surely they won't erase all of those for a single $450 piece of hardware in 2-3 years time? I'm just curious how things will look in the future.

Something like this maybe ?

Year 1
Switch Lite 199
SWOLED 299
Drake 399-449

Year 2

Switch Lite 149
SWOLED 249
Drake 399

Year 3

Switch TV 99-149, OG Switch hardware, TV Mode only, with focus on digital and NSO library of games
Drake Lite 249-299, this time with TV Mode support but comes without the dock, smaller,screen,less storage etc.
Drake 349-399, gets refresh improving internal stuff aka 2019 v2 Switch

 

[GamerJM]

I think the DS line of systems was a lot more price elastic than the Switch because the DS probably had an on-average younger audience of buyers, plus the 2010s era of Smartphones made people more accustomed to dropping more money on tech, and the Switch feels more premium respective to its era so it's easier to justify spending more money on it

 

[John Omaha]

If the new hardware really is there to completely replace the Switch then only like with an extensive cross gen phase. But we‘ll see. I‘m still not sure how much next gen this hardware is. They could very well position it anyware between a DSi over DS to a GBA over Gameboy type of upgrade.

This is not aimed at you specifically but what does the bolded even mean at this point? The PlayStation "We Believe In Generations" 5 will only start getting current-gen exclusives on a regular basis in 2023, its third year on the market. How extensive are we talking, five years of cross-gen?

 

[RennanNT]

DS is Nintendo’s most successful piece of hardware. It’s successor, 3DS, didn’t perform well out of the gate for several reasons and one of those reasons was the increased price. It turns out the lower price had been one of the key factors for driving sales with the original DS. Who would have thought?

Price was a big factor for the DS, because at the time it was the cheapest option. Times changed though and the 3DS family went as low as $80 with a flagship game and it didn't make any splash.

Positioning themselves as a cheap option for gaming is no longer an option for Nintendo, unless they want to make smartphones and F2P games, since no matter how low their hardware/software gets, it will still be too expensive in comparison with free to play mobile games everyone has access to.

 

[Blue Monty]

This is not aimed at you specifically but what does the bolded even mean at this point? The PlayStation "We Believe In Generations" 5 will only start getting current-gen exclusives on a regular basis in 2023, its third year on the market. How extensive are we talking, five years of cross-gen?

Nintendo used to have the fastest transitions in the industry by far outside the weird DS/GBA period (and even then Nintendo EPD went MIA almost all GBA generation) , anything that is 1 year plus is slow for Nintendo standards, I honestly expect that by late 2025 most games will be Drake exclusive

 

[Pokemaniac]

DS is Nintendo’s most successful piece of hardware. It’s successor, 3DS, didn’t perform well out of the gate for several reasons and one of those reasons was the increased price. It turns out the lower price had been one of the key factors for driving sales with the original DS. Who would have thought?

Would a $400-$450 price point impact the success of a more powerful Switch machine after the early adopters have taken their slice of the pie?

It wasn't really price alone that did in the 3DS, but also several miscalculations that lead to a pretty weak value proposition. Stereoscopic 3D just didn't turn out to be as big a deal as Nintendo hoped, and the initial software library was pretty dire, as Nintendo began entering their "HD games are hard" phase.

With Drake, it's hard to tell what the hook will be, but as long as it doesn't mess with the existing value proposition of the Switch concept too badly, they should be fine on that front. As for library, Nintendo's software pipeline is in a significantly better place right now and the system will be able to much more fully incorporate the current Switch's library to the point where Nintendo will be able to support both systems with a single set of games.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Nintendo used to have the fastest transitions in the industry by far outside the weird DS/GBA period (and even then Nintendo EPD went MIA almost all GBA generation) , anything that is 1 year plus is slow for Nintendo standards, I honestly expect that by late 2025 most games will be Drake exclusive

Eh, Nintendo will basically keep supporting a system as long as it's healthy enough to do so. SNES, for example, kept receiving games in Japan for almost the entire lifespan of the N64. They just had a recent string of home consoles that either didn't do so great or fell off a cliff before their successor released.

You can even see a recent example of this with 3DS. First party support for that didn't end until 2 full years after the Switch released.

 

[ILikeFeet]

It wasn't really price alone that did in the 3DS, but also several miscalculations that lead to a pretty weak value proposition. Stereoscopic 3D just didn't turn out to be as big a deal as Nintendo hoped, and the initial software library was pretty dire, as Nintendo began entering their "HD games are hard" phase.

With Drake, it's hard to tell what the hook will be, but as long as it doesn't mess with the existing value proposition of the Switch concept too badly, they should be fine on that front. As for library, Nintendo's software pipeline is in a significantly better place right now and the system will be able to much more fully incorporate the current Switch's library to the point where Nintendo will be able to support both systems with a single set of games.

the proposition seems to be fine, if you ask me. sometimes you don't need to reinvent the wheel and Nintendo has done that up until the wii (where the gimmick was hardware/performance)

I still believe having games like Final Fantasy 7, Elden Ring, insert big non-exclusive third party is enough to sell people that this is a big enough jump

 

[iNess]

DS is the best selling piece of Nintendo hardware, its not the most successful one - thats the Switch.

Something like this maybe ?

Year 1
Switch Lite 199
SWOLED 299
Drake 399-449

Year 2

Switch Lite 149
SWOLED 249
Drake 399

Year 3

Switch TV 99-149, OG Switch hardware, TV Mode only, with focus on digital and NSO library of games
Drake Lite 249-299, this time with TV Mode support but comes without the dock, smaller,screen,less storage etc.
Drake 349-399, gets refresh improving internal stuff aka 2019 v2 Switch

Before there was a cost range for consoles, now it doesn’t seem so clear, let alone that prices tended to go down, leaving the previous range ready for the next gen.

 

[iNess]

What if I speculate Fils-Aimé's interview with Inverse?

Imagine that Nintendo's next haptic controller would be cross console, and Botw2 would be released along with that controller not only on Nintendo but also on Playstation and Xbox.
Surely an active in-game service would make more sense. And it's not a discardable idea, already Microsoft like Sony diversify their games.

• Nintendo "Switch Online" + Control.

If that happens soon, I would only hope that audiovisual content is created in a general way with criteria in favor of humanity, maybe the world is getting better after all.

 

[mjayer]

What if I speculate Fils-Aimé's interview with Inverse?

Imagine that Nintendo's next haptic controller would be cross console, and Botw2 would be released along with that controller not only on Nintendo but also on Playstation and Xbox.
Surely an active in-game service would make more sense. And it's not a discardable idea, already Microsoft like Sony diversify their games.

• Nintendo "Switch Online" + Control.

If that happens soon, I would only hope that audiovisual content is created in a general way with criteria in favor of humanity, maybe the world is getting better after all.

In a dark world that seems to be spiraling out of control, I too, place much hope on audiovisual content being created in extremely general ways with attention to a criteria in favor of humanity. Truly it’s a great hope.

 

[Raccoon]

Stand back everyone, I speak iNess

What if we got something similar to Fils-Aimé's interview with Inverse?

Imagine if Nintendo's next gimmick controller would be cross platform, and Botw2 would be released along with that controller not only on Nintendo but also on Playstation and Xbox.
Surely an diverse cross-platform brand would make more sense. And it's not unprecedented, Microsoft and Sony are already diversifying their games' platforms.

If that happens soon, it would mean games are being created with people in mind instead of to sell hardware, and maybe the world is getting better after all.

 

[12cheeper]

What if I speculate Fils-Aimé's interview with Inverse?

Imagine that Nintendo's next haptic controller would be cross console, and Botw2 would be released along with that controller not only on Nintendo but also on Playstation and Xbox.
Surely an active in-game service would make more sense. And it's not a discardable idea, already Microsoft like Sony diversify their games.

• Nintendo "Switch Online" + Control.

If that happens soon, I would only hope that audiovisual content is created in a general way with criteria in favor of humanity, maybe the world is getting better after all.

...Why exactly would Nintendo release their own games on their competitors platforms?What would they even gain from doing this?
And do I even want to know what the hell "criteria in favor of humanity" is supposed to even mean?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DS is Nintendo’s most successful piece of hardware. It’s successor, 3DS, didn’t perform well out of the gate for several reasons and one of those reasons was the increased price. It turns out the lower price had been one of the key factors for driving sales with the original DS. Who would have thought?

Would a $400-$450 price point impact the success of a more powerful Switch machine after the early adopters have taken their slice of the pie?

3DS's $250 was a very big step up from any previous Nintendo portable launch, something like 50% higher than any of the earlier ones even adjusted for inflation. For a similarly shocking price jump after Switch, Nintendo would have to go with $550+. For something releasing in the next year, $370-400 would be pretty in line with what Wii and Switch cost at their respective launches.

 

[Raccoon]

so I put the iNess post through half a dozen languages in google translate and it actually turned out more comprehensible

What are your guesses about Fils-Aimé's interview with Inverse?

Imagine Nintendo's next haptic controller going cross-console and Botw2 releasing on that controller not only for Nintendo, but also for PlayStation and Xbox.
Aggressive servicing in games certainly makes more sense.And this isn't a one-off idea, already Sony like Microsoft is diversifying its games.

Nintendo Connect Online + Control.

If that happens soon, I hope that audiovisual content will be created in a common way with standards for the benefit of mankind. Perhaps the world will eventually improve.

 

[lexony]

This is not aimed at you specifically but what does the bolded even mean at this point? The PlayStation "We Believe In Generations" 5 will only start getting current-gen exclusives on a regular basis in 2023, its third year on the market. How extensive are we talking, five years of cross-gen?

I mean that they will say that the current switch stays as the main platform. I don’t think that Nintendo will have exclusive games (outside of some exclusive features maybe) for that device, at least for the next two years. And yes this is very similar to the PS5 and XBOX Series, only that I don’t see Drake Switch positioned as a big genrational upgrade. The Hardware main feature (Hybrid console), Branding, NSO, eShop, OS and services would stay more or less the same. But in the end it is just semantics of course.

 

[Raccoon]

apologies to iNess, I hope you are not offended by our bewilderment

 

[lexony]

apologies to iNess, I hope you are not offended by our bewilderment

You made their post just more comprehensible for me. I think. Maybe.

 

[HankyPanky]

the audience for an updated Switch is huge. people like to upgrade their gadgets all the time and lots of Switch owners are waiting on a proper new model before buying another. instant sell-out and hard to find for months, i imagine. and price won't particularly matter.

 

[Starbreaker]

I also believe we will see some kind of tv-only cheap budget solution for the OG some time after Drake is released. If you remove the screen and battery it could give them something in that under $149 territory.

 

[Hermii]

I also believe we will see some kind of tv-only cheap budget solution for the OG some time after Drake is released. If you remove the screen and battery it could give them something in that under $149 territory.

There has been a hardware profile for that in the OS, almost since launch.

 

[Starbreaker]

There has been a hardware profile for that in the OS, almost since launch.

Maybe we'll see it some day then. I figured that was on the table recently but then we got the oled instead. Perhaps next year or year after.

 

[Baobab]

An interesting article about chip and tech demand and the direction of the world economy
On one side it would seem a 2023 Nintendo console could find much cheaper components but in a much harder and restricted consumer market.
Is a 450 dollars console then the right move?

chipmakers-are-flashing-more-warnings-on-the-global-economy

Mounting concern over semiconductor demand is sending shudders through North Asia’s high-tech exporters, which historically serve as a bellwether for the international economy.

Gartner Inc. predicts an abrupt end to one of the industry’s biggest boom cycles. The research firm slashed its outlook for revenue growth to just 7.4% in 2022, down from 14% seen three months earlier. Gartner then sees it falling 2.5% in 2023.

“The trend is important for Asia as its economic cycle is very dependent on tech exports,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA. “Fewer new orders and the large inventory pile-up mean Asia’s tech sector will see a long destocking cycle and a shrinking profit margin.”

 

[YolkFolk]

I also believe we will see some kind of tv-only cheap budget solution for the OG some time after Drake is released. If you remove the screen and battery it could give them something in that under $149 territory.

About the size of an Apple TV box.
Digital only.
64gb flash storage.
Micro SD slot.

Unless they had this as a SKU for the Switch Deluxe…

The superior power and resolution would really benefit it being TV only.

 

[Spork4000]

I also believe we will see some kind of tv-only cheap budget solution for the OG some time after Drake is released. If you remove the screen and battery it could give them something in that under $149 territory.

I’ll be honest, I really don’t see the market for this.

If Nintendo’s history tells us anything, it’s that cheaper != more sales.

 

[Ojoloco]

 

[Blue Monty]

I can also show graphs of the price of Switch V2 rising in Japan, is probably an UK only thing

 

[Spork4000]

Supply issues seem to be region specific, Japan sells out immediately, but every switch console seems to be in stock in the USA. I imagine the UK isn’t having as many issues meeting demand.

 

[Stinky Horse]

Europe got more of the 6.2" model than any other region last quarter. I guess there will be an influx of OLED models coming at the end of the month

 

[Charamiwa]

People have been wanting this model to die for years now and it never happens.

 

[mjayer]

I mean no, this doesn't confirm this is what Nintendo is doing, but lets just say it is. This would point to probably an early November launch!

 

[Hermii]

I mean no, this doesn't confirm this is what Nintendo is doing, but lets just say it is. This would point to probably an early November launch!

No, water is wet but let’s say water is dry.

 

[mjayer]

No, water is wet but let’s say water is dry.

Well they are using that water as if it's dry in Europe so...

 

[Foltzie]

People have been wanting this model to die for years now and it never happens.

No need for it to be retired if there is no replacement price wise.

 

[Dakhil]

An interesting article about chip and tech demand and the direction of the world economy
On one side it would seem a 2023 Nintendo console could find much cheaper components but in a much harder and restricted consumer market.
Is a 450 dollars console then the right move?

chipmakers-are-flashing-more-warnings-on-the-global-economy

The price for electronic components are not expected to decrease until late 2023 at the earliest. So I'd still argue Nintendo won't have a problem selling new hardware for $449.99.

 

[Mobius]

There is a market for ~500$ consoles, it wouldn't be surprising to see it between 400-500$ as long as the hardware is good enough to justify the price.

 

[YolkFolk]

There is a market for ~500$ consoles, it wouldn't be surprising to see it between 400-500$ as long as the hardware is good enough to justify the price.

There has never been a market for a $500 Nintendo console.

 

[Mobius]

There has never been a market for a $500 Nintendo console.

I still wouldn't be surprised if they sold it for 500$, but yeah I doubt they'd go with that price since you can instead get a PS5/Xbox which has much more power, minus the portability.

 

[Dekuman]

Pricing is part of the equation, I think there's a tendency to want to hand waive it because we want to ensure the price is high enough to cover the BOMs of the components we want.

I think however pricing would have been part of the design from day 1. My view is the OLED's success pretty much locks in $350 as a viable floor price for Switch 2. Whether they want to incrtement that up to $399 or $449 or even $499 is entirely up to their internal data and research which will tell them what price that want to sell it at for success.

If they can get a repeat of 2017, and not a 3DS or Wii U style launch, I think $450 is tenable and doable but they will need to drop it down to $399 soonish to continue selling once the early adopters had their fill.

Again, we're dealing with completely new management here. While it's safe to assume unwillingness to take a big loss on hardware will be part of the thinking, this is also the same Nintendo that watched it last 2 successor platforms struggle in part due to poor launch software lineup and pricing. I don't think they'll make the same mistake again.

 

[Spork4000]

There has never been a market for a $500 Nintendo console.

There had never been a market for a $350 Nintendo console until last year, this is how time and inflation works.

 

[Paxie]

Absolute batshit insane theory: Drake will be marketed as just another member of the Switch family and an alternative to the OLED at $350. No fancy screens or other stuff aside from maybe the new kickstand - OLED would be for those who want a premium base Switch experience, while Drake is for enthusiasts who want better resolutions and frames. I can see them doing this to offset people immediately gravitating to Drake over all existing models.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Absolute batshit insane theory: Drake will be marketed as just another member of the Switch family and an alternative to the OLED at $350. No fancy screens or other stuff aside from maybe the new kickstand - OLED would be for those who want a premium base Switch experience, while Drake is for enthusiasts who want better resolutions and frames. I can see them doing this to offset people immediately gravitating to Drake over all existing models.

that's a terrible idea because Drake will cost them more money to build than an OLED switch. if they don't charge more, they'll make less money on it and Nintendo loves their profit margins

 

[Dekuman]

Absolute batshit insane theory: Drake will be marketed as just another member of the Switch family and an alternative to the OLED at $350. No fancy screens or other stuff aside from maybe the new kickstand - OLED would be for those who want a premium base Switch experience, while Drake is for enthusiasts who want better resolutions and frames. I can see them doing this to offset people immediately gravitating to Drake over all existing models.

Not that insane really. If they go with the Iterative approach, which I think they will, it can be called the Switch 2 and still positioned as the new iteration in a family of compatible devices. Something consumers are used to now with tablet/phone upgrades

They will still differentiate it with pricing. Existing in the same family does not mean the same price.

 

[Hosermess]

Drake being the premium Switch and OLED being the new base model is what I'm expecting.

 

[Eos]

I wouldn't be surprised if Drake was TV-only. It would be a nice way to reduce the price a little bit. And a few years later, Switch 2 as a hybrid console in 2025-26.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I wouldn't be surprised if Drake was TV-only. It would be a nice way to reduce the price a little bit. And a few years later, Switch 2 as a hybrid console in 2025-26.

no one would want a compromised system, that's why they didn't even bite at the Switch Lite. that would waste the costs of developing the chip

 

[arsen]

I wouldn't be surprised if Drake was TV-only. It would be a nice way to reduce the price a little bit. And a few years later, Switch 2 as a hybrid console in 2025-26.

if this was the case, I think Nvidia would have gone out of their way to make a device able to outperform the PS5.