StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Giancarlo]

Nintendo will suport Nintendo Switch up to 2029(year 4 of Switch sucessor), you dont simply trown away a 140+ userbase the moment your next hardware launch.

 

[theguy]

Nintendo will no longer invest too much effort into the Switch, as the system is currently facing serious cracking issues. After the successor of the Switch is released, they will directly abandon the Switch due to their excessive protection of copyright. This is Nintendo's approach.

i can’t tell if this is satire

 

[Steve]

Nintendo will no longer invest too much effort into the Switch, as the system is currently facing serious cracking issues. After the successor of the Switch is released, they will directly abandon the Switch due to their excessive protection of copyright. This is Nintendo's approach.

Yes... But not continuing with the NSO support and the Switch ports, like DK returns and Luigi mansion 2 HD wouldn't in character for Nintendo, since People are still actively playing Switch games.

I can see Nintendo supporting the Switch for 2-3 years, until Nintendo partners stop continuing supporting it, but the Switch itself will be alive and kicking for long, with smaller third party games and indies.

 

[neoplanet]

Yes... But not continuing with the NSO support and the Switch ports, like DK returns and Luigi mansion 2 HD wouldn't in character for Nintendo, since People are still actively playing Switch games.

I can see Nintendo supporting the Switch for 2-3 years, until Nintendo partners stop continuing supporting it, but the Switch itself will be alive and kicking for long, with smaller third party games and indies.

i will complete the thinking , switch will get support while still can , with the support from nintendo gradually , but i belive it can still surprass the ps2 in sales

them in 3 or 4 years the support is lost complety

 

[Secu]

I think we will see Switch games being compatible with Switch2, but we won't see many Switch2 games being compatible with Switch. Except for some 2D games that do not require high graphics requirements and some simple games.

For example, FE and XB, not to mention the new MK, AC, Pokémon and 3D Mario, they will be unique to Switch2. And only a very small number, such as Princess Peach and DKvsMario, will log in to both at the same time.

 

[Steve]

i will complete the thinking , switch will get support while still can , with the support from nintendo gradually , but i belive it can still surprass the ps2 in sales

them in 3 or 4 years the support is lost complety

If not, Ubisoft will make the Switch stay alive, despite it being in the grave.

 

[PeterPeters]

Thanks everyone for your responses. My main takeaway from all of this is that the Switch success has given Nintendo the opportunity and time to prepare in the best way possible for the Next Gen hardware transition and launch.

I was intrigued because most people here thought that the successor should have been launched by 2022-2024, according to the polls here and most comments prior to the February news.

In my opinion, It seems that declining hardware sales (since FY2020-2021) are not the main factor to launch earlier for Nintendo. As long they ship at least +10-13M units total per fiscal year (speculated HW baseline), they're OK with that. If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2023, just after two fiscal years of declining HW sales (to keep the hardware sales momentum).

Same conclusion for software unit sales, declining software sales aren't a main factor either to release earlier for them, because those sales started to decline a year after the hardware decline (FY2021-2022), so they're also OK with that (the current SW baseline should be higher, like 120-160M units per fiscal year, maybe less). If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2024, just after two fiscal years of declining SW sales (to maintain the software sales momentum).

And lastly, despite the HW and SW declines, the active annual playing users were growing up until last FY2023-2024. It should reach its peak or start declining this FY2024-2025 (we'll confirm this in the next earnings reports), signalling the ideal and latest possible timeframe to launch your Next Gen Hardware (to keep and increase the +123M user base in your ecosystem).

A Q4 2023 launch made sense, a Q4 2024 launch makes sense, but it seems they have already decided a 2025 launch is the latest feasible/possible date to ensure the best transition and launch possible. In that same vein, if the Next Gen Switch launches in 2026 instead of 2025, something very bad happened during HW-SW development, no excuses for that. Still interested to see their complete H2 2024 HW-SW strategy, their forecasts are way too ambitious, they must have something under their sleeve, right?

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Thanks everyone for your responses. My main takeaway from all of this is that the Switch success has given Nintendo the opportunity and time to prepare in the best way possible for the Next Gen hardware transition and launch.

I was intrigued because most people here thought that the successor should have been launched by 2022-2024, according to the polls here and most comments prior to the February news.

In my opinion, It seems that declining hardware sales (since FY2020-2021) are not the main factor to launch earlier for Nintendo. As long they ship at least +10-13M units total per fiscal year (speculated HW baseline), they're OK with that. If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2023, just after two fiscal years of declining HW sales (to keep the hardware sales momentum).

Same conclusion for software unit sales, declining software sales aren't a main factor either to release earlier for them, because those sales started to decline a year after the hardware decline (FY2021-2022), so they're also OK with that (the current SW baseline should be higher, like 120-160M units per fiscal year, maybe less). If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2024, just after two fiscal years of declining SW sales (to maintain the software sales momentum).

And lastly, despite the HW and SW declines, the active annual playing users were growing up until last FY2023-2024. It should reach its peak or start declining this FY2024-2025 (we'll confirm this in the next earnings reports), signalling the ideal and latest possible timeframe to launch your Next Gen Hardware (to keep and increase the +123M user base in your ecosystem).

A Q4 2023 launch made sense, a Q4 2024 launch makes sense, but it seems they have already decided a 2025 launch is the latest feasible/possible date to ensure the best transition and launch possible. In that same vein, if the Next Gen Switch launches in 2026 instead of 2025, something very bad happened during HW-SW development, no excuses for that. Still interested to see their complete H2 2024 HW-SW strategy, their forecasts are way too ambitious, they must have something under their sleeve, right?

I think what you're saying about the decline in both hardware and software sales is relative to the 2020 peak, which doesn't really make sense since the switch isn't facing the same precipitous decline that the wii suffered after 2010, but is still pretty much alive and kicking. And the extra time in my opinion I believe is related to software development, Furukawa has already answered that semiconductor supply is no longer a problem this year, but there needs to be enough time to develop next gen games, so it makes sense for them to target 2025 as the release date for switch2 in order to make sure that switch2 will have enough games in the first year.

 

[Dakhil]

All that information really says its that the Orin OFA is driver compatible with the Drake OFA. That doesn't mean they are exactly the same.

That's why I said "The only possible information known is that T239 inherited the same OFA as T234."

I think there's a possibility T239 does inherit T234's OFA. There's a possibility T239 inherited the same NVENC as T234, considering Nvidia confirmed that NVENC on T234 has AV1 encode support, which was not supported on RTX 30 GPUs.

But at the same time, there's also a possibility T239 actually doesn't inherit T234's OFA.

---

Nvidia has leaned into - and helped to create - the "compute over rasterization" approach. And Nintendo has decided to go with a fully mature design, rather than a deeply custom GPU architecture, so they've inherited an approach similar to Microsoft's.

I could be missing context here, but by "fully mature design", shouldn't Nintendo's approach be closer with PlayStation's approach than with Microsoft's approach, considering that the GPU on the PlayStation 5's APU is much closer to RDNA than the GPU on the Xbox Series X|S's APU? (I know the GPUs on the PlayStation 5's and the Xbox Series X|S's APU are based on RDNA, with RDNA 2 features added. But the GPU on the Xbox Series X|S's APU has more RDNA 2 features than the GPU on the PlayStation 5's GPU (here, here, and here). And RDNA 2 at the time is a much newer (and therefore less mature) GPU architecture vs RDNA 1.)

 

[Angel Whispers]

You guys talking about Ps4 like it's good be that kind of power. But, the truth is that it's not.

But switch 2 can run this:

No Ps4 or Steam Deck can run this, so Switch 2 is stronger than both.

The problem now is not if the games looking good or not. They will, even many switch games can look good even today. The true problem is what games Switch 2 will have.

That machine will live the second half Ps5's life and Ps6's first half. It need to get enough power for thirds bring their games somehow to it. And a mere Ps4 can't archive it.

For luck, the machine that thread is helping uncovering will be capable enough to receive current and many future games. A Future-proof hybrid is what we really need to expect from Nintendo, not a "PS4 at best because Nintendo...".

I wish I could Yeah this a trillion times. All of it, not just the bolded parts.

 

[omniryu]

You guys talking about Ps4 like it's good be that kind of power. But, the truth is that it's not.

Because it is. Some PS4 character models look better than some PS5 exclusive character models.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

as I said before, people will judge games on how they're presented, not by what features are on screen. that Uncharted image can be remade with RT and mesh shaders and whatnot, and no one will care about those, just that "it looks good". that's what diminishing returns is. and that's why Drake is in a good position: it has the feature set to live a long life and the minimums to retain a good looking image, arguably better than Switch

As many purely 9th gen games still have a meaty gap between them and 8th gen games graphically, this was expressed in my previous point, the introduction of virtual geometry and RT and higher texture detail makes the difference between the images throughout the 9th gen and 8th gen games still noticeable. I agree with everything you said, I just don't think it's the whole truth.

（You can compare the difference in image quality between doom eternal and doom the dark ages. And the difference between DS1 and DS2.）

 

[oldpuck]

Nintendo will no longer invest too much effort into the Switch, as the system is currently facing serious cracking issues. After the successor of the Switch is released, they will directly abandon the Switch due to their excessive protection of copyright. This is Nintendo's approach.

Nintendo will suport Nintendo Switch up to 2029(year 4 of Switch sucessor), you dont simply trown away a 140+ userbase the moment your next hardware launch.

I would take any deep launch strategy talk like this to the Switch 2 thread

 

[oldpuck]

---

I could be missing context here, but by "fully mature design", shouldn't Nintendo's approach be closer with PlayStation's approach than with Microsoft's approach, considering that the GPU on the PlayStation 5's APU is much closer to RDNA than the GPU on the Xbox Series X|S's APU?

You're right that sticking closer to a mature design more resembles Sony's strategy. I meant that Nvidia has gone for more compute, over rasterization, much like Microsoft did, and Nintendo has inherited that aspect from the desktop designs.

 

[gabeplays]

But switch 2 can run this:

No Ps4 or Steam Deck can run this, so Switch 2 is stronger than both.

To be honest, I've never actually seen this before. I've known and seen this demo played through a PS5, but I've never actually seen the Series S playing the Matrix demo.

Nintendo wouldn't have shown the demo to developers at Gamescom if it couldn't be running competently, so it's safe to say that -- regardless of the numbers -- we're looking at something at least on par with the Series S which has been the long-running perception. It can't be anything else if the PS4 can't even run it.

Furthermore, I don't think this could be just in docked mode. It's too glaring of a weak-spot if the Switch 2 could only run the Matrix demo competently in docked mode, only for it to grind to a halt in handheld mode. That feels like a recipe for disaster if a dev was targeting "docked specs" and it meant there game was unplayable in handheld mode. The demo must have been competent on both modes or they wouldn't have bothered to show it at all.

 

[gnetc]

Thanks everyone for your responses. My main takeaway from all of this is that the Switch success has given Nintendo the opportunity and time to prepare in the best way possible for the Next Gen hardware transition and launch.

I was intrigued because most people here thought that the successor should have been launched by 2022-2024, according to the polls here and most comments prior to the February news.

In my opinion, It seems that declining hardware sales (since FY2020-2021) are not the main factor to launch earlier for Nintendo. As long they ship at least +10-13M units total per fiscal year (speculated HW baseline), they're OK with that. If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2023, just after two fiscal years of declining HW sales (to keep the hardware sales momentum).

Same conclusion for software unit sales, declining software sales aren't a main factor either to release earlier for them, because those sales started to decline a year after the hardware decline (FY2021-2022), so they're also OK with that (the current SW baseline should be higher, like 120-160M units per fiscal year, maybe less). If not Nintendo would have launched a new device by 2024, just after two fiscal years of declining SW sales (to maintain the software sales momentum).

And lastly, despite the HW and SW declines, the active annual playing users were growing up until last FY2023-2024. It should reach its peak or start declining this FY2024-2025 (we'll confirm this in the next earnings reports), signalling the ideal and latest possible timeframe to launch your Next Gen Hardware (to keep and increase the +123M user base in your ecosystem).

A Q4 2023 launch made sense, a Q4 2024 launch makes sense, but it seems they have already decided a 2025 launch is the latest feasible/possible date to ensure the best transition and launch possible. In that same vein, if the Next Gen Switch launches in 2026 instead of 2025, something very bad happened during HW-SW development, no excuses for that. Still interested to see their complete H2 2024 HW-SW strategy, their forecasts are way too ambitious, they must have something under their sleeve, right?

Don’t even mention 2026, I think I’d cry

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

To be honest, I've never actually seen this before. I've known and seen this demo played through a PS5, but I've never actually seen the Series S playing the Matrix demo.

Nintendo wouldn't have shown the demo to developers at Gamescom if it couldn't be running competently, so it's safe to say that -- regardless of the numbers -- we're looking at something at least on par with the Series S which has been the long-running perception. It can't be anything else if the PS4 can't even run it.

Furthermore, I don't think this could be just in docked mode. It's too glaring of a weak-spot if the Switch 2 could only run the Matrix demo competently in docked mode, only for it to grind to a halt in handheld mode. That feels like a recipe for disaster if a dev was targeting "docked specs" and it meant there game was unplayable in handheld mode. The demo must have been competent on both modes or they wouldn't have bothered to show it at all.

You need to remember the amount of time that has passed between when the Matrix Awakens demo was shown on PS5/XSX/XSS and last year when it was shown on Switch. There is a 20 month gap there. There have been a lot of improvements the UE5 since that demo was first shown on current gen consoles. Just because the demo was running on Switch 2, doesn't mean that it is now on par with the Series S. That's the wrong conclusion to draw.

All we need to know from Switch 2 like hardware running the demo is that the platform supports the suite of UE5 features. This means it should be able to get UE5 ports from a feature stand point which is probably the most important aspect for the system to get current gen games. You can't assume more than that.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

You need to remember the amount of time that has passed between when the Matrix Awakens demo was shown on PS5/XSX/XSS and last year when it was shown on Switch. There is a 20 month gap there. There have been a lot of improvements the UE5 since that demo was first shown on current gen consoles. Just because the demo was running on Switch 2, doesn't mean that it is now on par with the Series S. That's the wrong conclusion to draw.

All we need to know from the Switch 2 like hardware running the demo is that the platform supports the suite of UE5 features. This means it should be able to get UE5 ports from a feature stand point which is probably the most important aspect for the system to get current gen games. You can't assume more than that.

All such comparisons are trying to make a 1:1 comparison by horsepower standards, which doesn't make sense, the switch2 is a lite port highly optimized for 9th gen features, and the compute power and horsepower isn't a 1:1 comparison to the xss (lower clocks but more cores.)

It is correct though that switch2's computing power disadvantage will cause it to be slower, so it must need to be optimized and customized for dedicated ports if switch2 is to reach its true potential.

 

[CeramicPigeon]

You guys talking about Ps4 like it's good be that kind of power. But, the truth is that it's not.

When people say PS4 at minimum they're usually meaning in handheld mode, which for a mobile chipset is pretty much as close to the ceiling as you can get when taking into account the price point we think they're going to go for. The general consensus here currently is that in docked mode it could be in the ballpark of a Series S. This is mobile hardware at the end of the day. Getting to PS5 levels of power on mobile hardware is just not possible right now.

With regards to next-gen, it's impossible to really know how bad it's gonna be, but also keep in mind that devs are quickly encountering diminishing returns when it comes to increases in power and graphical capabilities. For a lot of studios, it simply isn't worth the extra time and money to invest in next-gen development because costs and development time are ballooning to unsustainable levels. There's a reason support for the PS4 is still going very strong.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

what did I miss that people started dooming? looking through the past few pages it doesn't look like any new info has come out to justify it.

 

[BreakAtmo]

When people say PS4 at minimum they're usually meaning in handheld mode, which for a mobile chipset is pretty much as close to the ceiling as you can get when taking into account the price point we think they're going to go for. The general consensus here currently is that in docked mode it could be in the ballpark of a Series S. This is mobile hardware at the end of the day. Getting to PS5 levels of power on mobile hardware is just not possible right now.

With regards to next-gen, it's impossible to really know how bad it's gonna be, but also keep in mind that devs are quickly encountering diminishing returns when it comes to increases in power and graphical capabilities. For a lot of studios, it simply isn't worth the extra time and money to invest in next-gen development because costs and development time are ballooning to unsustainable levels. There's a reason support for the PS4 is still going very strong.

At least path-tracing will eventually bring a notable improvement in realism that will actually make development cheaper and easier.

 

[gabeplays]

You need to remember the amount of time that has passed between when the Matrix Awakens demo was shown on PS5/XSX/XSS and last year when it was shown on Switch. There is a 20 month gap there. There have been a lot of improvements the UE5 since that demo was first shown on current gen consoles. Just because the demo was running on Switch 2, doesn't mean that it is now on par with the Series S. That's the wrong conclusion to draw.

All we need to know from Switch 2 like hardware running the demo is that the platform supports the suite of UE5 features. This means it should be able to get UE5 ports from a feature stand point which is probably the most important aspect for the system to get current gen games. You can't assume more than that.

Fair enough!

 

[ILikeFeet]

what did I miss that people started dooming? looking through the past few pages it doesn't look like any new info has come out to justify it.

You never need a reason to start dooming

 

[Mendinso]

You never need a reason to start dooming

NintenDoomed? More likely than you think!

Spoiler

Honestly, we always end up in this cycle at some point, much like other cycles for specific specs and backwards compatibility concerns and the like, but that's okay honestly.

 

[Bonejack]

I guess this was already asked, but bear with me, the thread can be hard to follow at times... so... i wanted to ask what info the next batch(es) of the customs data could actually bring?

Stuff like RAM and so on, feels like we've got the "big" things already.

We're in a "super-slow" phase right now with the Summer events done, now waiting for what comes next.

 

[BreakAtmo]

You never need a reason to start dooming

Doom Eternal

 

[Rampo360]

i will complete the thinking , switch will get support while still can , with the support from nintendo gradually , but i belive it can still surprass the ps2 in sales

them in 3 or 4 years the support is lost complety

Switch will get support as long as games sell on it. They stopped making 3DS games cause everything they released after Switch launch bombed. The good thing this time is that Switch games will work on both so I can see them supporting a little longer, like a Kirby or Yoshi game, could be cross gen. The same could apply for some remaster / remakes of older games.

 

[Danny]

I think Nintendo wants to strike a balance, i don't think Nintendo wants to be in the same situation like Sony is with PS5 that half of their users are stuck on the PS4 after five years, because that limits potential sales of Switch 2 games. But i also think the difference is that PS4 is fine with playing most of the GAAS games meaning that a lot of PS users don't see the need for upgrading to a PS5. Switch doesn't have the same benefits of being a GAAS machine so that means that more people will jump over to Switch 2 if Nintendo's strategy works.

 

[lattjeful]

what did I miss that people started dooming? looking through the past few pages it doesn't look like any new info has come out to justify it.

You missed nothing. It’s the dooming that starts here whenever there’s a long stretch without info.

 

[Shoulder]

At least path-tracing will eventually bring a notable improvement in realism that will actually make development cheaper and easier.

Playing Devil's advocate for a moment, but will it? Will Ray-Tracing/Path Tracing, whatever kind of tracing you want to call it (don't really care), will that actually translate to cheaper, and easier development? Because looking at all this from an outside perspective (someone who is not a programmer), whatever money and time they save in that, they'll use it for other things, offsetting any potential savings and time in the end.

Maybe they use the extra time to actually polish their games, debug them, and make sure they're up to snuff rather than throwing them out the door once it's "good enough." And hey, I'd be all for that. Save time in development, and use time saved for QC/QA. It'd be a win-win, but not technically cheaper, nor really easier. Because now you have to find, and discover all these issues, and potentially millions of lines of code, which sure, AI can certainly help with some of that, but humans will still have to do the bulk of the work, at least that's how I look at it.

IMO, Ray-Tracing/Path Tracing isn't some silver bullet. It is but one tool out of a whole toolbox for developers.

 

[felipedelpiero]

What about the annoucement. Set, Oct or Nov? Which month makes more sense?

 

[gnetc]

What about the annoucement. Set, Oct or Nov? Which month makes more sense?

I’m hoping for September but I think October is likely the most reasonable.

Probably going to be another trailer like the original Switch, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the September direct ends up showing off the next system.

Before anyone says they never show off hardware in directs, they can do whatever they want.

 

[GuardianStalker]

What about the annoucement. Set, Oct or Nov? Which month makes more sense?

There is no known release from Nintendo for the month of August (yet). Of course, this doesn't mean much, but an announcement of the Switch successor would certainly be a good "gap filler" in the calendar.

 

[LoneRanger]

I’m hoping for a September announcement, either as a trailer or presentation.

The first Switch real leak was this month by Eurogamer (it was a HW leak by an european third party developer). Maybe stars are aligned and history repeats a little bit again. This can create a snowball effect and we would be getting more and more rumors and whispers regarding third party stuff.

Nintendo can avoid leaks from inside them (or manufacturing leaks) but from third party developers is not very easy.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I’m hoping for a September announcement, either as a trailer or presentation.

The first Switch real leak was this month by Eurogamer (it was a HW leak by an european third party developer). Maybe stars are aligned and history repeats a little bit again

If third parties haven’t leaked hardware, it either means production hasn’t started, they haven’t received hardware, or are scared of the consequences

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

If we repeat the switch release process, we will know the clock frequency at the end of the year.

 

[ILikeFeet]

If third parties haven’t leaked hardware, it either means production hasn’t started, they haven’t received hardware, or are scared of the consequences

they probably have hardware, but it's sectioned off to few people. if only 5 people in a studio of 100+ can even see it, much less touch it, don't really have to worry about leaks

 

[Concernt]

I guess this was already asked, but bear with me, the thread can be hard to follow at times... so... i wanted to ask what info the next batch(es) of the customs data could actually bring?

Stuff like RAM and so on, feels like we've got the "big" things already.

We're in a "super-slow" phase right now with the Summer events done, now waiting for what comes next.

The end of part revisions and a ramp up in part imports, indicating the start of mass production.

Nintendo this generation has tended to announce a system alongside the start of mass production and I believe has stated they prefer to do this. If we see a ramp up before an official reveal, with us working with one or two month old data, that implies, but certainly doesn't guarantee, an incoming announcement.

Things we might want to see, like screen dimensions, are probably unlikely. They've already appeared in the data sans dimensions, I wouldn't expect them to suddenly have dimensions appear for known parts. One question I still have is what kind of camera is being imported, I don't know that we've actually seen one move around yet, but it seems likely it'll have one (on the controller(s), for motion control). It's possible parts like this will appear or become deobfuscated in coming months.

 

[Shoulder]

they probably have hardware, but it's sectioned off to few people. if only 5 people in a studio of 100+ can even see it, much less touch it, don't really have to worry about leaks

And considering the successor hasn't been officially announced by Nintendo (acknowledging it is different from announcing), security is likely extremely tight. Wouldn't be surprised if each dev kit right now must phone home to Nintendo HQ to even work, plus have to go through some channels each time devs work on it, at least until it's officially unveiled.

Kind of reminds me when Irvin Kershner when Filming Empire Strikes Back had a chat with Mark Hamill in his trailer about the truth about Vader. At the time, only himself, and Lucas knew the real script, and then Mark knew it. Meaning if it got out, they would know it was him (at least until James Earl Jones recorded his own dialogue, making it 4 people).

 

[HyruleanKnight]

Nintendo will suport Nintendo Switch up to 2029(year 4 of Switch sucessor), you dont simply trown away a 140+ userbase the moment your next hardware launch.

While I don't doubt that, I don't think major game releases will happen on the Switch and Switch 2 simultaneously, or at all. Third party AAA devs will be very quick to abandon the Switch, and the only ones remaining by the end of it's life will be indie devs and Nintendo's lesser AA or even A(if that's a thing) games.

 

[Concernt]

I’m hoping for September but I think October is likely the most reasonable.

Probably going to be another trailer like the original Switch, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the September direct ends up showing off the next system.

Before anyone says they never show off hardware in directs, they can do whatever they want.

Didn't we hear about this quarter (CY Q3) being the one with production and an announcement from Nikkei or something? That would line up with customs data. The thing is, October is Q4. I would be surprised if we ended September without the announcement, I think between now and then is probably the window.

 

[Angel Whispers]

You're missing my point. The Switch 2 will do at least what a PS4 can do at minimum. Uncharted 4, The Last of Us, etc portably on the go.

Sit on that for a second. That's... amazing. That's really, really, amazing!

The march of technology goes on and a lot of fantastic looking games have come out recently, but we've long since hit a point of diminishing returns. I doubt anyone can look at what the PS4 can do and say that looks terrible and we're going to be getting that as a starter. It's why I'm happy they're still making ports for that black beast. Half of the players on PSN are still rocking a PS4 and when you look at the images below, can you blame them?

Here's a comparison between a PS4, a PS4 Pro, and a PS5. At minimum? the Switch 2 going to be getting the far left image (in portable mode). Docked Mode will be somewhere in middle image. Most of the debates are how close to the far right the Switch 2 will get and imo it'll probably float somewhere between the middle and far right at it's best.

Maybe I'm speaking as an older player, but this is beyond huge. I can barely see the difference between the PS4 Pro version and the PS5 version. Even if the Switch 2 hypothetically could ONLY give us the far left image, is anyone really going to be dissatisfied with that? half of the 118 million players on PSN are still using a PS4 so clearly they don't think so: Kratos is sitting pretty on all of these machines!

Not to be a doom poster, or crush your passion, but the reasons why It isn’t amazing because phones are already doing this. It’s imperative that the prospective successor creates the most positive perception, if it’s to build on the Switch’s success. Phones have also been RT-capable since the S22 series of phones in 2022. Last year, Apple showed RE4R (cross-Gen title) on their phone, and iOS will be getting a version of Baldur’s Gate 3 - the latter would be a great one to showcase if it can have the split-screen mode, a feature that the XSS version doesn’t have. Mobile tech has long surpassed the PS4, and ARM CPUs have had it beaten for YEARS. Even the Switch’s CPU, clock for clock, has it beaten, except it has fewer cores and a lower frequency, so, it couldn’t take advantage of the fact. It isn’t amazing because phones have other PS4 titles like PUBG and Genshin Impact. Switch can already do a lot of what the PS4 does, and so could the Wii U, even, but once more, budget, time, and the fact that industry partners made the PS4 the lead platform meant that PS enjoyed all of these benefits… Even there, first party games, some with astronomical budgets, sacrificed 60FPS to sell people the illusion of “perceived visual spectacle” and the idea that it was a lot more powerful than it really is. Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, God Of War 2018 AND Ragnorok, TLOU2, and even Knack were 30FPS or closer to it than 60FPS. A cross-gen title in Little Big Planet 3 targeted 1080p and 30FPS, but nobody could tell me with a straight face that this was orders of magnitude better than what Yoshi’s Woolly World did on the Wii U at 720p and 60FPS while streaming to a GamePad. Or what actually happens when the PS4 does target 60FPS - A version of Sackboy exists here, and it runs at 720p and 60FPS. Once more, nobody can tell me this game is orders of magnitude more than what Nintendo achieved with Super Mario 3D World, a 2013 Wii U title that released around the time of the XB1/PS4, and plays at the same resolution and frame rate, but is 1080p on the Switch. This doesn’t get discussed because the discourse around the PS4 is largely done, and the industry has moved on - All the more reason why “PS4 performance”, even in a handheld in 2024 can never be considered “amazing”, let alone fit for a generational purpose. Ports also generally don’t benefit from the same levels of care, but you can see that when they do, there isn’t THAT much between them - Alien: Isolation is that rare example. Dragon Quest 11 S could be another one. Doom 2016 and Doom Eternal on Switch can no longer be considered “amazing” when you see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond doing 60FPS and a higher resolution in gameplay trailers of a work still in development. In fact, there are videos already drawing comparisons with Halo 5 on the XBox One, and again, nothing screams “way better than what the Switch can do”. I know I’ve been banging this drum to the annoyance of many, but “PS4 performance” in 2024 would be a failure for Nintendo and Nvidia, and all of this proves that Nintendo hardware has already been able to do much of what you’re calling “amazing”, but various variables have meant that these examples haven’t been as commonplace as they could’ve been. Still, it doesn’t mean that they were impossible.

Remember, what we’re actually talking about when we say “PS4 performance” is 11-year old hardware with even older parts, very dated architecture, bottlenecking CPU which is clock for clock worse than the Switch’s, RT-less, DLSS-less, SSD-less, and left behind by the industry. Yes, it still gets a handful of games, but it isn’t at the forefront of the developer’s conscience. A failure to understand this will make the S2NS susceptible to a worse than Wii U fate.

 

[Ozeiyo]

I hope we don't see a nostalgia wave for the PS360 "brown and bloom" era like with pixel art and low poly.

(Me)

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Not to be a doom poster, or crush your passion, but the reasons why It isn’t amazing because phones are already doing this. It’s imperative that the prospective successor creates the most positive perception, if it’s to build on the Switch’s success. Phones have also been RT-capable since the S22 series of phones in 2022. Last year, Apple showed RE4R (cross-Gen title) on their phone, and iOS will be getting a version of Baldur’s Gate 3 - the latter would be a great one to showcase if it can have the split-screen mode, a feature that the XSS version doesn’t have. Mobile tech has long surpassed the PS4, and ARM CPUs have had it beaten for YEARS. Even the Switch’s CPU, clock for clock, has it beaten, except it has fewer cores and a lower frequency, so, it couldn’t take advantage of the fact. It isn’t amazing because phones have other PS4 titles like PUBG and Genshin Impact. Switch can already do a lot of what the PS4 does, and so could the Wii U, even, but once more, budget, time, and the fact that industry partners made the PS4 the lead platform meant that PS enjoyed all of these benefits… Even there, first party games, some with astronomical budgets, sacrificed 60FPS to sell people the illusion of “perceived visual spectacle” and the idea that it was a lot more powerful than it really is. Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, God Of War 2018 AND Ragnorok, TLOU2, and even Knack were 30FPS or closer to it than 60FPS. A cross-gen title in Little Big Planet 3 targeted 1080p and 30FPS, but nobody could tell me with a straight face that this was orders of magnitude better than what Yoshi’s Woolly World did on the Wii U at 720p and 60FPS while streaming to a GamePad. Or what actually happens when the PS4 does target 60FPS - A version of Sackboy exists here, and it runs at 720p and 60FPS. Once more, nobody can tell me this game is orders of magnitude more than what Nintendo achieved with Super Mario 3D World, a 2013 Wii U title that released around the time of the XB1/PS4, and plays at the same resolution and frame rate, but is 1080p on the Switch. This doesn’t get discussed because the discourse around the PS4 is largely done, and the industry has moved on - All the more reason why “PS4 performance”, even in a handheld in 2024 can never be considered “amazing”, let alone fit for a generational purpose. Ports also generally don’t benefit from the same levels of care, but you can see that when they do, there isn’t THAT much between them - Alien: Isolation is that rare example. Dragon Quest 11 S could be another one. Doom 2016 and Doom Eternal on Switch can no longer be considered “amazing” when you see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond doing 60FPS and a higher resolution in gameplay trailers of a work still in development. In fact, there are videos already drawing comparisons with Halo 5 on the XBox One, and again, nothing screams “way better than what the Switch can do”. I know I’ve been banging this drum to the annoyance of many, but “PS4 performance” in 2024 would be a failure for Nintendo and Nvidia, and all of this proves that Nintendo hardware has already been able to do much of what you’re calling “amazing”, but various variables have meant that these examples haven’t been as commonplace as they could’ve been. Still, it doesn’t mean that they were impossible.

Remember, what we’re actually talking about when we say “PS4 performance” is 11-year old hardware with even older parts, very dated architecture, bottlenecking CPU which is clock for clock worse than the Switch’s, RT-less, DLSS-less, SSD-less, and left behind by the industry. Yes, it still gets a handful of games, but it isn’t at the forefront of the developer’s conscience. A failure to understand this will make the S2NS susceptible to a worse than Wii U fate.

I believe by "ps4 level performance" they mean that the switch2 has gpu compute power at the level of 8th gen consoles, not macro graphical performance, as the switch2's graphics port is almost exclusively a 9th gen solution, which isn't the same thing as the ps4, and means that it's going to have better looking graphics than the whole of 8th gen gaming, a fact which will be even more certain, especially when we consider that Hardware Lumen and Virtual Geometry are going to be the main pipelines that Nintendo will be using for the switch2.

 

[gnetc]

Didn't we hear about this quarter (CY Q3) being the one with production and an announcement from Nikkei or something? That would line up with customs data. The thing is, October is Q4. I would be surprised if we ended September without the announcement, I think between now and then is probably the window.

Hey look I hope they announce it sooner I’m just not trying to set myself up for disappointment.

 

[Threeman]

Not to be a doom poster, or crush your passion, but the reasons why It isn’t amazing because phones are already doing this. It’s imperative that the prospective successor creates the most positive perception, if it’s to build on the Switch’s success. Phones have also been RT-capable since the S22 series of phones in 2022. Last year, Apple showed RE4R (cross-Gen title) on their phone, and iOS will be getting a version of Baldur’s Gate 3 - the latter would be a great one to showcase if it can have the split-screen mode, a feature that the XSS version doesn’t have. Mobile tech has long surpassed the PS4, and ARM CPUs have had it beaten for YEARS. Even the Switch’s CPU, clock for clock, has it beaten, except it has fewer cores and a lower frequency, so, it couldn’t take advantage of the fact. It isn’t amazing because phones have other PS4 titles like PUBG and Genshin Impact. Switch can already do a lot of what the PS4 does, and so could the Wii U, even, but once more, budget, time, and the fact that industry partners made the PS4 the lead platform meant that PS enjoyed all of these benefits… Even there, first party games, some with astronomical budgets, sacrificed 60FPS to sell people the illusion of “perceived visual spectacle” and the idea that it was a lot more powerful than it really is. Bloodborne, Horizon Zero Dawn, God Of War 2018 AND Ragnorok, TLOU2, and even Knack were 30FPS or closer to it than 60FPS. A cross-gen title in Little Big Planet 3 targeted 1080p and 30FPS, but nobody could tell me with a straight face that this was orders of magnitude better than what Yoshi’s Woolly World did on the Wii U at 720p and 60FPS while streaming to a GamePad. Or what actually happens when the PS4 does target 60FPS - A version of Sackboy exists here, and it runs at 720p and 60FPS. Once more, nobody can tell me this game is orders of magnitude more than what Nintendo achieved with Super Mario 3D World, a 2013 Wii U title that released around the time of the XB1/PS4, and plays at the same resolution and frame rate, but is 1080p on the Switch. This doesn’t get discussed because the discourse around the PS4 is largely done, and the industry has moved on - All the more reason why “PS4 performance”, even in a handheld in 2024 can never be considered “amazing”, let alone fit for a generational purpose. Ports also generally don’t benefit from the same levels of care, but you can see that when they do, there isn’t THAT much between them - Alien: Isolation is that rare example. Dragon Quest 11 S could be another one. Doom 2016 and Doom Eternal on Switch can no longer be considered “amazing” when you see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond doing 60FPS and a higher resolution in gameplay trailers of a work still in development. In fact, there are videos already drawing comparisons with Halo 5 on the XBox One, and again, nothing screams “way better than what the Switch can do”. I know I’ve been banging this drum to the annoyance of many, but “PS4 performance” in 2024 would be a failure for Nintendo and Nvidia, and all of this proves that Nintendo hardware has already been able to do much of what you’re calling “amazing”, but various variables have meant that these examples haven’t been as commonplace as they could’ve been. Still, it doesn’t mean that they were impossible.

Remember, what we’re actually talking about when we say “PS4 performance” is 11-year old hardware with even older parts, very dated architecture, bottlenecking CPU which is clock for clock worse than the Switch’s, RT-less, DLSS-less, SSD-less, and left behind by the industry. Yes, it still gets a handful of games, but it isn’t at the forefront of the developer’s conscience. A failure to understand this will make the S2NS susceptible to a worse than Wii U fate.

Those games on Iphones have not been played though.

Those Assassin’s Creed, Resident Evil and Death Stranding ports have bombed - Mobilegamer.biz

Estimates suggest that fewer than 3,000 people have paid $49.99 to play Assassin’s Creed Mirage on iPhone. Other console ports like Resident Evil 4 and Death Stranding have flopped too.

mobilegamer.biz

Performance is one thing, but selling games and console is another thing.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Those games on Iphones have not been played though.

Those Assassin’s Creed, Resident Evil and Death Stranding ports have bombed - Mobilegamer.biz

Estimates suggest that fewer than 3,000 people have paid $49.99 to play Assassin’s Creed Mirage on iPhone. Other console ports like Resident Evil 4 and Death Stranding have flopped too.

mobilegamer.biz

Performance is one thing, but selling games and console is another thing.

Arguably it never mattered much, what mattered was always whether the game was fun or not, that was the key to the switch's pre-success, and performance was only cared about by hardcore gamers.

 

[navierStokes]

(Nvm I should not get into it)

 

[gnetc]

Didn't we hear about this quarter (CY Q3) being the one with production and an announcement from Nikkei or something? That would line up with customs data. The thing is, October is Q4. I would be surprised if we ended September without the announcement, I think between now and then is probably the window.

August would be another interesting date since there is literally nothing releasing in this window. Even though it’s pretty common to have no big releases during that month.

 

[oldpuck]

I guess this was already asked, but bear with me, the thread can be hard to follow at times... so... i wanted to ask what info the next batch(es) of the customs data could actually bring?

I'll miss darthdiablo's big dumps o' data. I am not the customs guy, though I was trawling through that data for a while. Turns out, my search-fu is no more exceptional than the folks already on it. So someone should correct me if I miss something

But we may see new unknown unknowns. Stuff like the magnets for Joy-Cons or the microphone. Parts who existence suggest new or updated features, and that we wouldn't know to look for until they get tagged with a Nintendo product code. Until the thing is revealed, we'll never know how many of these might exist.

There are a few parts that we're not likely to get more info on, but we could get lucky. The screen has shown up, but without a product number (IIRC). If it gets tagged with something searchable in database, we might get specs like HDR or VRR support.