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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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ziggyrivers said:
I wonder what wizardry Nintendo does to prevent internal leaks and 3rd party leaks

If Nintendo is gonna do a digital Switch 2 event, and participate in GDC, they’ve gone to extraordinary lenghts to prevent leaks, especially when so many moving parts are in the way
Click to expand...
"leak this and we're cancelling your ass on twitter dot com"
 
NineTailSage said:
So in watching the latest DF Direct I'm leaning on the idea that Nvidia does bring a version of Frame Generation to Switch 2 eventually.
They start discussing a supporters question about whether Nvidia are limiting FG to the RTX 40 series cards just to sell the newer products.

Alex mentions how AMD's FSR 3 running on Nvidia Ampere cards shows that the FG tech can work but just not at the same image quality as DLSS 3.0 provides. Alex believes that Nvidia probably wanted to be consistent in their messaging when introducing FG to the market and a lesser quality version might of done more harm than good.

This is where I think for a closed off Nintendo dev platform though a lower quality FG option could see the light of day.
Specifically because Nintendo are already known to use FSR in some of their games on Switch, Nvidia would much rather Nintendo popularize their FG solution over AMD's. T239 is custom enough SoC that no-one mainstream will cry out if the Switch 2 gets a slightly inferior RTX FG solution vs the current Lovelace cards...

Click to expand...


Ehhhhhhh, modern game engines are so CPU-light that I don't know how useful this would be outside of like one or two games (like maybe the next Zelda) if the Switch 2's CPU clocks are reasonably good.

Frame gen was mostly introduced for CPU bottlenecks, but Unreal and everyone else has worked really hard to reduce CPU usage so it doesn't seem that useful right now.
 
ziggyrivers said:
I wonder what wizardry Nintendo does to prevent internal leaks and 3rd party leaks

If Nintendo is gonna do a digital Switch 2 event, and participate in GDC, they’ve gone to extraordinary lenghts to prevent leaks, especially when so many moving parts are in the way
Click to expand...
On sight.
 
SoldierDelta said:
We might not see the same "last ditch effort" stuff that we saw with the Switch 1, but I kinda hope to see a bit of the weirder and fun marketing during the early Switch days.

And a lot of it. Nintendo could probably fund their marketing from their portion of the Mario movie profits alone.
Click to expand...
I’m expecting the photogenic 20-something millennials from the Switch’s reveal trailer to be replaced with photogenic 20-something zoomers for the Switch 2’s reveal trailer.
 
ziggyrivers said:
I wonder what wizardry Nintendo does to prevent internal leaks and 3rd party leaks

If Nintendo is gonna do a digital Switch 2 event, and participate in GDC, they’ve gone to extraordinary lenghts to prevent leaks, especially when so many moving parts are in the way
Click to expand...

The real answer is they don’t. Somebody always knows and the rampant insider trading going on at the top echelons of every company and every government is real. It’s why Nancy Pelosi (former speaker of house) employs a fund that makes her millions as a retired speaker of the house.

There are literally millions of stories of politicians shorting companies as a regulation is being announced and just as many politicians buying into a company before an announcement. It’s so bad I’ve had a fund manager tell me he’s made more off of Microsoft source trades than his 20 year career of analyzing PE ratios for stocks.

All of this is the basis for my theory that you can watch a stock chart and have a good idea when something is about to be announced. Combined with networking, and I truely believe we can predict hardware launches and reveals. It’s just another tool similar to what Doctre81 does with LinkedIn and others do with shipment data. I aim to prove it this summer lol
 
Dakhil said:
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Nvidia (NVDA.O) is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters.

The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products.

The Santa Clara, California-based company controls about 80% of high-end AI chip market, a position that has sent its stock market value up 40% so far this year to $1.73 trillion after it more than tripled in 2023.

Nvidia's customers, which include ChatGPT creator OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O), have raced to snap up the dwindling supply of its chips to compete in the fast-emerging generative AI sector.

Its H100 and A100 chips serve as a generalized, all-purpose AI processor for many of those major customers. But the tech companies have started to develop their own internal chips for specific needs. Doing so helps reduce energy consumption, and potentially can shrink the cost and time to design.

Nvidia is now attempting to play a role in helping these companies develop custom AI chips that have flowed to rival firms such as Broadcom (AVGO.O) and Marvell Technology (MRVL.O), said the sources, who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

"If you're really trying to optimize on things like power, or optimize on cost for your application, you can't afford to go drop an H100 or A100 in there," Greg Reichow, general partner at venture capital firm Eclipse Ventures said in an interview. "You want to have the exact right mixture of compute and just the kind of compute that you need."
Click to expand...
Nvidia does not disclose H100 prices, which are higher than for the prior-generation A100, but each chip can sell for $16,000 to $100,000 depending on volume and other factors. Meta plans to bring its total stock to 350,000 H100s this year.

Nvidia officials have met with representatives from Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Meta, Microsoft, Google and OpenAI to discuss making custom chips for them, two sources familiar with the meetings said. Beyond data center chips, Nvidia has pursued telecom, automotive and video game customers.

Nvidia shares rose 2.75% after the Reuters report, helping lift chip stocks overall. Marvell shares dropped 2.78%.

In 2022, Nvidia said it would let third-party customers integrate some of its proprietary networking technology with their own chips. It has said nothing about the program since, and Reuters is reporting its wider ambitions for the first time.

A Nvidia spokesperson declined to comment beyond the company's 2022 announcement.

Dina McKinney, a former Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Marvell executive, heads Nvidia's custom unit and her team's goal is to make its technology available for customers in cloud, 5G wireless, video games and automotives, a LinkedIn profile said. Those mentions were scrubbed and her title changed after Reuters sought comment from Nvidia.

Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI declined to comment.
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$30 BILLION MARKET​

According to estimates from research firm 650 Group's Alan Weckel, the data center custom chip market will grow to as much as $10 billion this year, and double that in 2025.

The broader custom chip market was worth roughly $30 billion in 2023, which amounts to roughly 5% of annual global chip sales, according to Needham analyst Charles Shi.

Currently, custom silicon design for data centers is dominated by Broadcom and Marvell.

In a typical arrangement, a design partner such as Nvidia would offer intellectual property and technology, but leave the chip fabrication, packaging and additional steps to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330.TW) or another contract chip manufacturer.

Nvidia moving into this territory has the potential to eat into Broadcom and Marvell sales.

"With Broadcom's custom silicon business touching $10 billion, and Marvell’s around $2 billion, this is a real threat," said Dylan Patel, founder of silicon research group SemiAnalysis. "It's a real big negative - there's more competition entering the fray."
Click to expand...

BEYOND AI​

Nvidia is in talks with telecom infrastructure builder Ericsson (ERICb.ST) for a wireless chip that includes the chip designer's graphics processing unit (GPU) technology, two sources familiar with the discussions said.

Ericsson declined to comment.

650 Group's Weckle expects the telecom custom chip market to remain flat at roughly $4 billion to $5 billion a year.

Nvidia also plans to target the automotive and video game markets, according to sources and public social media postings.

Weckel expects the custom auto market to grow consistently from its current $6 billion to $8 billion range at 20% a year, and the $7 billion to $8 billion video game custom chip market could increase with the next-generation consoles from Xbox and Sony (6857.T).

Nintendo's current Switch handheld console already includes Nvidia's Tegra X1 chip. A new version of the Switch console expected this year is likely to include a Nvidia custom design, one source said.

Nintendo declined to comment.

Reporting by Max Cherney and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Additional reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in Stockholm and Krystal Hu in San Francisco; Editing by Kenneth Li, Peter Henderson, Jamie Freed and Alexander Smith
Click to expand...
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www.anandtech.com

Report: NVIDIA Forms Custom Chip Unit for Cloud Computing and More

www.anandtech.com www.anandtech.com
⋮
Meanwhile, analysts are painting the possibility of an even bigger picture. Well-known GPU industry observer Jon Peddie Research notes that they believe that NVIDIA may be interested in addressing not only CSPs with datacenter offerings, but also consumer market due to huge volumes.

"NVIDIA made their loyal fan base in the consumer market which enabled them to establish the brand and develop ever more powerful processors that could then be used as compute accelerators," said JPR's president Jon Peddie. "But the company has made its fortune in the deep-pocked datacenter market where mission-critical projects see the cost of silicon as trivial to the overall objective. The consumer side gives NVIDIA the economy of scale so they can apply enormous resources to developing chips and the software infrastructure around those chips. It is not just CUDA, but a vast library of software tools and libraries."

Back in mid-2010s NVIDIA tried to address smartphones and tablets with its Tegra SoCs, but without much success. However, the company managed to secure a spot in supplying the application processor for the highly-successful Nintendo Switch console, and certainly would like expand this business. The consumer business allows NVIDIA to design a chip and then sell it to one client for many years without changing its design, amortizing the high costs of development over many millions of chips.

"NVIDIA is of course interested in expanding its footprint in consoles – right now they are supplying the biggest selling console supplier, and are calling on Microsoft and Sony every week to try and get back in," Peddie said. "NVIDIA was in the first Xbox, and in PlayStation 3. But AMD has a cost-performance advantage with their APUs, which NVIDIA hopes to match with Grace. And since Windows runs on Arm, NVIDIA has a shot at Microsoft. Sony's custom OS would not be much of a challenge for NVIDIA."

Source: Reuters
Click to expand...
 
ziggyrivers said:
I wonder what wizardry Nintendo does to prevent internal leaks and 3rd party leaks

If Nintendo is gonna do a digital Switch 2 event, and participate in GDC, they’ve gone to extraordinary lenghts to prevent leaks, especially when so many moving parts are in the way
Click to expand...
I feel like a lot of it is consolidating Nintendo of Europe into one branch. A lot of those leaks would come out and be leaked by European outlets like Eurogamer.

It felt like that, anyway.
 
indospot said:
Oh no zoomers are in their 20s now...
Click to expand...
Many were already in college when the Switch launched (me)

Bonejack said:
Monolithsoft: Nah, it's not hard. Look at us go!
Click to expand...
I admire their genuine visible improvement between entries, implementing a temporal upsampling solution that let them go from poorly smeared and oversharpened 360p in Xeno DE / 2 to downsampled 880p in handheld mode for Xeno 3.

p5uhqr.webp

19sa8q.webp


I am excited to see what they will do with a 6X GPU leap and access to the ultimate form of temporal anti-aliasing that is DLSS.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
The real answer is they don’t. Somebody always knows and the rampant insider trading going on at the top echelons of every company and every government is real. It’s why Nancy Pelosi (former speaker of house) employs a fund that makes her millions as a retired speaker of the house.

There are literally millions of stories of politicians shorting companies as a regulation is being announced and just as many politicians buying into a company before an announcement. It’s so bad I’ve had a fund manager tell me he’s made more off of Microsoft source trades than his 20 year career of analyzing PE ratios for stocks.

All of this is the basis for my theory that you can watch a stock chart and have a good idea when something is about to be announced. Combined with networking, and I truely believe we can predict hardware launches and reveals. It’s just another tool similar to what Doctre81 does with LinkedIn and others do with shipment data. I aim to prove it this summer lol
Click to expand...
A lot of people know. Sony , Microsoft and all the top publishers know.

This isn't insider trading however as you are confusing the ignorance of the general public to product announcements with true insider trading.

Stock movements can also correlate to buying on rumor and selling on news. Stock prices don't always rise with announcements. Nintendo share price declined after 3DS was revealed

At this point most of the market has already priced in a hardware launch in 2024. Not saying it will happen, but that's what the market thinks. The specifcs won't affect prices that much, and really shouldn't as stockholders are interested about returns, and would be more concerned whether the product is viable or not, not if it launches in the window of a few months. A summer launch (see the Sega Saturn surprise launch) that is disastrous would be worse for them than a Sept or Fall launch that goes smoothly.
 
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Bonejack said:
I think the fact that they had nVidia do a custom SoC for them shows that they're going all out again.

But on the same page, they should be more relaxed than back when Switch launched.
I think it's more difficult to fuck this up than to go on smoothly for once.
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I agree outside of Nintendo not having good software lined up, Switch 2 is destined to be a hit if they cam mimic what they did with Switch.

Dakhil said:
As I've mentioned before, the Optical Flow Accelerator (OFA) can also be used for video encode, which can definitely be useful for video games.
Click to expand...

Hermii said:
You mentioned it before, but I don't think it’s the most sensible way to solve encoding, to include it just for that. That why I said "mostly useless".
Click to expand...
Yeah I agree, I think the OFA was probably always planned in Nvidia's roadmap to extend the DLSS roll-out of features.
Orin NX whitepaper shows that it has a dedicated multimedia block (which T239 should of inherited as well) that handles those encode/decode functions.

OrinNXBlockDiagram.jpg
 
Dekuman said:
Stock movements can also correlate to buying on rumor and selling on news. Stock prices don't always rise with announcements. Nintendo share price declined after 3DS was revealed
Click to expand...
It's also important to note that there's such a thing as sector trends; basically unless a company actively shits the bed with an announcement to cause a flat drop, usually entire sectors tend to follow trends of going up/down with their stock price.

It's usually more interesting to see how heavily up/downward trends are affected compared to other companies in the same market if you want to see the actual response. Right now, the US tech sector is in a downward spiral (lol, SV running out of free cash), but you can still reasonably see what companies are succeeding because the drops that are affecting everyone aren't affecting them nearly as much.
 
Dekuman said:
A lot of people know. Sony , Microsoft and all the top publishers know.

This isn't insider trading however as you are confusing the ignorance of the general public to product announcements with true insider trading.

Stock movements can also correlate to buying on rumor and selling on news. Stock prices don't always rise with announcements. Nintendo share price declined after 3DS was revealed

At this point most of the market has already priced in a hardware launch in 2024. Not saying it will happen, but that's what the market thinks. The specifcs won't affect prices that much, and really shouldn't as stockholders are interested about returns, and would be more concerned whether the product is viable or not, not if it launches in the window of a few months. A summer launch (see the Sega Saturn surprise launch) that is disastrous would be worse for them than a Sept or Fall launch that goes smoothly.
Click to expand...

I’ve already made a thread disproving a lot of that. It’s fine to disagree. It’s only a theory and I’ve posted quite a bit of evidence and charts supporting it. Ive been trading for over 15 years as my main source of income. I know what insider trading looks like and the fallacy of “buying rumor, selling news”. It’s a layman’s concept to explain a complicated mechanic.

We can agree to disagree. That’s ok and I respect your opinion.
 
maniacmaison said:
The Switch announcement was 20 october 2016
Switch blowout was 13 january 2017 (+85 days)
Switch release date was 3 march 2017 (+49 days)
From first trailer to release it was 134 days, over 4 months.

If this gets announced mid March we could see it (following the Switch timeline) the earliest in early May (49 days) and the latest in late July (85 days).
Click to expand...
The Switch was revealed in October 2016, not announced. It was announced in April 2016 for a planned release in March 2017. I wish people using the Switch as a predictor for how the turnaround on the Switch 2 could be would consider that more. The main driver behind my skepticism of a H1 launch is that we have not even gotten an acknowledgement of new hardware yet. I can believe that only two months of mass manufacturing are needed based on the Xbox Series. Maybe a little bit more time so they can have ample supply at launch. However, I cannot buy into going from announcement to release in just three months. No system has ever had that kind of release cycle. I won't be able to believe it until it happens.
 
Jamoman said:
It's easy if you just maintain sub 480p resolutions.
Click to expand...

Bonejack said:
That's HD output, not HD development!
Click to expand...
Yeah lol.
It's a shame they had to crush their resolutions so low for DE / 2 but the art of the games are already intended and suitable for higher resolutions.


FXVt4gIWAAEMj2D


FXVt3qQX0AAT_Oz


And at the very least, they implemented a functional upsampling solution for 3.
 
yusufied said:
Nintendo during the Wii U era: HD development is hard

Nintendo during the Switch era: Thanks to Unreal Engine 4 we can finally achieve our vision for Princess Peach Showtime
Click to expand...
I think people also forget that there was a massive earthquake and tsunami when they were developing the Wii U that screwed things up quite a bit
 
Serif said:
Yeah lol.
It's a shame they had to crush their resolutions so low for DE / 2 but the art of the games are already intended and suitable for higher resolutions.


FXVt4gIWAAEMj2D


FXVt3qQX0AAT_Oz


And at the very least, they implemented a functional upsampling solution for 3.
Click to expand...

Hopefully we get to see these games live their best life on Switch 2! I was blown away by Xenoblade Chronicles X on Wii U, would definitely revisit 2 & 3 if they got a resolution bump.
 
Stephen said:
The Switch was revealed in October 2016, not announced. It was announced in April 2016 for a planned release in March 2017. I wish people using the Switch as a predictor for how the turnaround on the Switch 2 could be would consider that more. The main driver behind my skepticism of a H1 launch is that we have not even gotten an acknowledgement of new hardware yet. I can believe that only two months of mass manufacturing are needed based on the Xbox Series. Maybe a little bit more time so they can have ample supply at launch. However, I cannot buy into going from announcement to release in just three months. No system has ever had that kind of release cycle. I won't be able to believe it until it happens.
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I'm sorry, I used the wrong word. But do you really believe the NX announcement in April 2016 will be repeated this time around? That they will start with a mention of the codename next month and give a release date and then stay silent for months? I don't think so merely because Nintendo is not in the same desperate situation where they need to make statements to assure people they are serious about making hardware.
 
Serif said:
Many were already in college when the Switch launched (me)


I admire their genuine visible improvement between entries, implementing a temporal upsampling solution that let them go from poorly smeared and oversharpened 360p in Xeno DE / 2 to downsampled 880p in handheld mode for Xeno 3.

p5uhqr.webp

19sa8q.webp


I am excited to see what they will do with a 6X GPU leap and access to the ultimate form of temporal anti-aliasing that is DLSS.
Click to expand...
Wait. Wait. Wait.

Where does that come from?
 
ziggyrivers said:
I wonder what wizardry Nintendo does to prevent internal leaks and 3rd party leaks

If Nintendo is gonna do a digital Switch 2 event, and participate in GDC, they’ve gone to extraordinary lenghts to prevent leaks, especially when so many moving parts are in the way
Click to expand...
I think a lot of it has to do with more limited availability and access for dev kits compared to Sony/MS. Layered on top of that is them seemingly being more strict about leaks in general and the repercussions of those leaks. Probably in totality that's enough to keep the audience smaller, and also ward off some of the desire to even talk to others about it. I think it's kind of telling that when they had a wider dev event at Gamescom, it immediately started leaking out across a number of channels, which probably speaks to the level of access that's out there.

I kind of also wonder if Nintendo encourages gaming outlets to not even bother reporting on Nintendo leaks for the most part.
 
0
Semi-related (indirectly) to the March Switch 2 reveal rumor, I see Side Order finally dropped a full trailer (cannot wait to play the DLC!)

This makes me think it makes Partner Showcase theory more likely (they could have just saved the new DLC trailer for Direct).

And Partner Showcase (just IMO, I know others don't subscribe to this theory) makes March Switch 2 reveal more likely.

Please let it be Partner Showcase on the 15th!
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I’ve already made a thread disproving a lot of that. It’s fine to disagree. It’s only a theory and I’ve posted quite a bit of evidence and charts supporting it. Ive been trading for over 15 years as my main source of income. I know what insider trading looks like and the fallacy of “buying rumor, selling news”. It’s a layman’s concept to explain a complicated mechanic.

We can agree to disagree. That’s ok and I respect your opinion.
Click to expand...
That's fine I'm OK with agreeing to disagree.

That said I feel like I need to clarify: With console launches a lot of people already know if they are launching this year. Software needs to be prepped for it from 3rd parties and vendors need to be lined up. Partners have already been briefed. This is like the worst kept secret in the industry as Nate and DF described last summer.

And even people who just check the news will know a console is likely launching this year and priced that in.

The expected performance of the console (over/under) is more important to the price at this point rather than if it's coming or not.
 
darthdiablo said:
Semi-related (indirectly) to the March Switch 2 reveal rumor, I see Side Order finally dropped a full trailer (cannot wait to play the DLC!)

This makes me think it makes Partner Showcase theory more likely (they could have just saved the new DLC trailer for Direct).

And Partner Showcase (just IMO, I know others don't subscribe to this theory) makes March Switch 2 reveal more likely.

Please let it be Partner Showcase on the 15th!
Click to expand...
I'm hoping for a Mini to see the TTYD release date trailer, but if we get that dropped on socials and the direct is just partners, I suppose we all win.
 
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