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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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carbvan said:
March 2024 can't be the launch at this point. I think Princess Peach kills that idea. That's not a launch title. I think it looks great, but it won't move units. And they can't just push the Switch 2 out alongside another 3D Mario then. That'll cannibalize the sales of the Peach game. I've been thinking March reveal, late May release for a bit and I think Princess Peach seals that for me.
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Yes, the 120 million Switch owners who wont get a Switch 2 for many months, won’t go near the Peach game because something.
 
I think March 2024 is not possible just because the expected hardware sales numbers are too low outside something like a 27th-31st March release, plus the turnaround from reveal to launch would be too short (I dont think it will be revealed this year before holidays)
 
TomNookYankees said:
I do find it odd how confident people are about this being the final switch only direct unless the expectation is that the Switch 2 will get announced/revealed before or during the February Direct. I'm expecting the February Direct to still be Switch only with the Switch 2 announced in March.
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I personally agree Switch 2 will likely be announced in March, and if it is, they're highly unlikely to have enough Switch-only content to create a full general direct for Switch in February and then also have a big Switch 2 blowout a month later (similar to January 2017, showing the first 6 - 9 months of content for the new system).

I can see a direct mini dedicated to Switch 1 in February, but I can't imagine a general, unless Switch 2 isn't revealed until Summer, but I also don't see that happening because they're not going to go into their March investor meeting without being able to assure investors that new hardware is indeed coming.
 
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Blue Monty said:
I think March 2024 is not possible just because the expected hardware sales numbers are too low outside something like a 27th-31st March release, plus the turnaround from reveal to launch would be too short (I dont think it will be revealed this year before holidays)
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They said their forecast does not take into account any new hardware.
 
carbvan said:
Unless the Princess Peach game is the launch title, I don't think it'll happen. A new system with a 3D Mario is all anyone would talk about, the Peach game would get drowned out in the news.
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And the 120 million Switch owners will stop buying games because the enthusiasts amongst them want a Switch 2?
 
ILikeFeet said:
I don't think Metroid will be the biggest game for it on launch day
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I mean I didn't(and still don't) think so either but it's hard to ignore the reality that the game is still not out and seems to not be coming within the next 6 months. There is quite a bit of assuming going on when it comes to the Metroid games and Switch 2 in order to fit certain biases. Frankly there is so many variables people are making assumptions about that it makes speculating kinda meh and definite statements that some want to make just muddies the water.

It's possible, I'd say now, to think Prime 4 could launch with the Switch 2. And maybe it's a good sign for the game. I just wouldn't bank on a low selling series that i don't believe has launched with a system to be a hype launch. Of course a strong lineup after launch could make it moot and no I'm not just talking 3D Mario 6+months later lmao.
 
If you're optimistic you're always wrong until you're right, but if you're pessimistic you never have to be wrong but you never get to be right.
 
Armoured_Bear said:
And the 120 million Switch owners will stop buying games because the enthusiasts amongst them want a Switch 2?
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I really think you under estimate how dominant a new 3D Mario would be in the media. We already see games from similar genres releasing at similar times and it affects their sales. A Mario game releasing the at the same time as a Peach game would blow it out of the water and be forgotten for a bit. It certainly wouldn't help sales at all.
 
Concernt said:
That's not Occam's Razor
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Must be Occam’s Scissors🤓

Goodtwin said:
Nintendo laid out a road map for Switch going into summer 2024 and I believe this is to establish the idea that Switch still has a future. So now that they have shown the public there are plans for an extensive software offering in 2024, they can announce new hardware without signaling to gamers that this is the end for Switch. Many smaller third parties and Indies will support Switch for years to come because of that huge install base, but Nintendo's premier teams will be shifting to next gen hardware. We also need to remember that Nintendo will hold on to completed software in order to release them strategically. Nate had heard about the Paper Mario RPG quite some time ago and its very possible this game is already finished.



It makes sense, but so does a H1 release anytime between March and June. At this point I don't even see a Summer launch being problematic, this thing is going to sell well regardless of the month it launches. Right now I am leaning towards a March launch for a few reasons. Number one being I want it sooner than later. Number two being that Nintendo launched Switch in March of 2017, and while that may not have been their original intent, it worked out extremely well and there is no clear reason for them to not do it again. Number three is that Nate was hearing that March was discussed quite a bit at Gamescom but the context wasn't clear. Could that be a reveal? Possible, but would the reveal date be a hot topic for developers? It seems to me they would be far more interested in when it was going to release rather than when it would be revealed. Even if Nintendo did tell developers that they plan to announce it in March, isn't it fair to assume that developers would ask a follow up question as to when they hardware would launch? Maybe Nintendo wouldn't comment on the launch timing? Possible, but then why even tell them when to expect the reveal announcement? March was a topic of discussion and Nate was no longer convinced of H2 2024 like he had been previously. TGS is next month and I believe the leaks from there will start to paint a clearer picture.
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Good points! The March 2024 comments are very strange and devs would definitely follow up with wanting to know when the estimated release date is if that’s indeed the reveal date. Nate also not being convinced of H2 2024 is interesting too.

Once TGS and Game Awards roll around I think we’ll have a clearer grasp on all this info like you said.
 
Leviraps said:
Must be Occam’s Scissors🤓


Good points! The March 2024 comments are very strange and devs would definitely follow up with wanting to know when the estimated release date is if that’s indeed the reveal date. Nate also not being convinced of H2 2024 is interesting too.

Once TGS and Game Awards roll around I think we’ll have a clearer grasp on all this info like you said.
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I think Eurogamer's article also said something to the effect that Nintendo is shooting for a H1 release. To be honest, if they don't know if it's coming H1 it makes me feel Q1 is not really in the cards. But that's me assuming the meaning of words not directly from Nintendo themselves. So I don't really stand strongly in what I think.
 
Hocot8 said:
I mean I didn't(and still don't) think so either but it's hard to ignore the reality that the game is still not out and seems to not be coming within the next 6 months. There is quite a bit of assuming going on when it comes to the Metroid games and Switch 2 in order to fit certain biases. Frankly there is so many variables people are making assumptions about that it makes speculating kinda meh and definite statements that some want to make just muddies the water.

It's possible, I'd say now, to think Prime 4 could launch with the Switch 2. And maybe it's a good sign for the game. I just wouldn't bank on a low selling series that i don't believe has launched with a system to be a hype launch. Of course a strong lineup after launch could make it moot and no I'm not just talking 3D Mario 6+months later lmao.
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I never said it's not gonna be soon. I still think Drake is launching before June. it'll be the game for the core Nintendo gamer, but it'll play second to whatever teh headliner will be
 
carbvan said:
Unless the Princess Peach game is the launch title, I don't think it'll happen. A new system with a 3D Mario is all anyone would talk about, the Peach game would get drowned out in the news.
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Odyssey was a Fall release in the launch year, but not an immediate launch. Assuming H1 was still on the table, a platform Mario doesn't have to there on launch.

Though as far as releases go, we've been seeing a lot of Mario -- mostly remakes/re-releases. Plus the way Peach's game is structured (Action-Adventure) I don't think the game will conflict with a 3D platformer if they're going that route.
 
KeijiKG said:
Odyssey was a Fall release in the launch year, but not an immediate launch. Assuming H1 was still on the table, a platform Mario doesn't have to there on launch.

Though as far as releases go, we've been seeing a lot of Mario -- mostly remakes/re-releases. Plus the way Peach's game is structured (Action-Adventure) I don't think the game will conflict with a 3D platformer if they're going that route.
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The only reason Mario launched in Fall is because you had a system seller at launch (Zelda).

There’s not a lot of system sellers that could launch day one with Switch 2 besides 3D Mario. We already got TOTK, Mario Kart BCP is wrapping up this holiday, 2D Mario is about to drop, Everybody 1-2 Switch was this summer, etc;
 
At the very least we won't have to wait long to know if March 2024 is release. If we go through October without any announcement then I think it can safely be ruled out as a possibility.
 
Procheno said:
I can't help but imagine that the Peach game is coming to Switch 2 because I have trouble understanding the fact that Nintendo would be proud to showcase a big Peach game and have 70% of the footage stutter with framerate issues below 30fps
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I’m going to be honest, I don’t think they care considering some games in the past had questionable performance too. Also people are propping this peach game as if it’s their higher tier game when it’s a middle tier game. It’s not something like Animal Crossing or Splatoon.

It’ll be more like Metroid Dread or Fire Emblem.
 
Leviraps said:
How so? Q2 could easily be filled out with FE4 Remake, MP2/3 HD or TWW/TP HD.

Fall launch makes the most sense!

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I feel a lot of people's argument for H1 2024 comes down to "because I really want it to be" deep down. Let's not lie we all want it ASAP lol. H2 2024 makes the most sense. I remember when everyone thought it was guaranteed to come out with TOTK.
 
I watched the Direct very late due to getting stuck at work. I have to say I found it extremely weak. The Switch is going to die a drawn out and painful death if they don't release the successor early next year. Some kind of reveal, announcement or info has to be a nailed on certainty for the next Direct!
 
ILikeFeet said:
-it's not as powerful as it seems
-runs the fucking Matrix Awakens demo

some of yall should hear yourselves talk
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I still think it's 4nm but people are misunderstanding. 8nm would mainly affect the size of the device and also fan/cooling solution, not power levels as much.
 
bossmeran said:
I feel a lot of people's argument for H1 2024 comes down to "because I really want it to be" deep down. Let's not lie we all want it ASAP lol. H2 2024 makes the most sense. I remember when everyone thought it was guaranteed to come out with TOTK.
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partially. I mean a lot of the people saying Q1 of 2024 were those saying 1H of this year, then were saying it was going to be announced this June which then became this July for a holiday release.

However, there is more info around now than then to develop an opinion.
 
yes, Nintendo will make us wait until the Switch sucessor for us to see at least a glimpse of Metroid Prime 4, hopefully the Paper Mario the Thousand Years Door remake/Super Mario Bros Wonder will keep me busy, when i wait for Metroid Prime 4 on Switch sucessor
 
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Leviraps said:
The only reason Mario launched in Fall is because you had a system seller at launch (Zelda).

There’s not a lot of system sellers that could launch day one with Switch 2 besides 3D Mario. We already got TOTK, Mario Kart BCP is wrapping up this holiday, 2D Mario is about to drop, Everybody 1-2 Switch was this summer, etc;
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1-2 Switch may have been a launch title, but it sure wasn't a system seller. Its sequel released as little more than space filler.
 
Skittzo said:
They said their forecast does not take into account any new hardware.
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Their hardware forecast is indeed only about Switch 1 sales. However, Nintendo is also forecasting revenue and profit for the FY and these don't show a hidden upcoming console.

Plus, Nintendo doesn't need Switch 2 to boost their current FY, they are already covered on that front.

If we are to guess about release windows, Spring 2024 or Sep-Nov 24 are the only possible picks for me.

Splatoon 3 big DLC could be at/around launch for instance.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m going to be honest, I don’t think they care considering some games in the past had questionable performance too. Also people are propping this peach game as if it’s their higher tier game when it’s a middle tier game. It’s not something like Animal Crossing or Splatoon.

It’ll be more like Metroid Dread or Fire Emblem.
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These mid tier, smaller budget games tend to be some of my favourites. I'm so excited!
 
RennanNT said:
We're about 5 Mario games past the "too much Mario" point, 10 games when counting NSO. At this point, they surely have a goal to release as many Mario-verse games as they possible can.
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2023 has really made it clearer than ever how much of a Nintendo mascot Mario is, he´s in everything. Not to mention even Super Nintendo world is all about Mario as well. Mario seems to be one of few IPs that doesn't really show signs of having an oversaturation point though.
 
dotnetguy said:
I watched the Direct very late due to getting stuck at work. I have to say I found it extremely weak. The Switch is going to die a drawn out and painful death if they don't release the successor early next year. Some kind of reveal, announcement or info has to be a nailed on certainty for the next Direct!
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I thought it was surprisingly decent considering how deep into the consoles life we are. There was a metric ton of Mario games which are always super popular. Honestly I was surprised they had that much still on offer. They mustve really bolstered their software pipeline.
 
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PedroNavajas said:
Arguments for TSMC 4NM:
  • According to deep analysis from members of this community, the leaked specs points towards a chip that would be inefficient for an 8nm chip. An smaller chip would have been more cost effective.
  • Some argue that an 8nm portable chip would not be capable of running the Matrix demo with "comparable" graphics to PS5.
  • 8nm would be very old for a 2024 launch.

Am I missing something?

I would discard the second argument for 4NM: We do not know how the Matrix was running on the system, other than vague statements.
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Respectfully, this gets the situation backwards. Lemme over-explain, as I so often do ;)

If you're playing Amateur Chip Detective, figuring out the process node is critical, because it dictates the size of the chip, and the rough electrical efficiency. If you are willing to throw more money at a chip - basically willing to make it fucking huge - and willing to burn down a rain forest to power it, you can make any node do just about anything you want.

You could make an 8nm chip that ran the Matrix demo no problem. Nvidia made millions of them, they're called the RTX 30 series, and they are desktop GPUs that consume more power by themselves than the Switch CPU+GPU+Screen+Controllers consume, combined.

So you try to figure out the process node, because you can make a good guess on how much the company will charge, and from there, you can guess the performance. But we know the performance. We know the number of cores. So we know the thing that we usually are trying to figure out from process node.

If Nvidia and Nintendo have somehow managed to make a cost-effective, Switch-sized product with that performance on 8nm they will have performed a technical miracle that is frankly way cooler than building on 8nm, It would be the fucking TARDIS of chip designs. An old blue box might not be as slick as a Constitution class starship, but I'll take a TARDIS over the Enterprise any day of the week.
 
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Just found out that "Drake" is actually a rumored code name for the Switch 2. I don't pay much attention to the rumors but I thought it was just a joke name that served the same function as "Switch 2" people use because of Nate lol
 
Hocot8 said:
And what exactly would be the headline game? Legitimately curious.
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I'm still expecting Mario, but generally, something with a wider audience than Metroid traditionally has. that said, Metroid Prime 4 could be that game if they made some changes to it to be more broadly appealing

Raploz said:
Question regarding the 8nm speculation: Is it possible they could have downgraded the chip after the Nvidia leak?
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then it wouldn't be the T239. we'd have to speculate an entirely new chip
 
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