Hardware Furukawa on next gen Switch: still thinking about the concept of the machine, too early to talk about it, current Switch still in mid life

[Sander RX]

Earlier the comparison of the Game Boy Color was brought up. In my mind that's exactly the kind of scenario where we argue about this forever.

Oh absolutely

Especially if the combined sales of other Switch models and Dane surpass PS2 and NDS.

People will argue the hell out of it.

 

[NineTailSage]

I'll try to explain as best I can based on what I know-

(I'm gonna break it down as much as I can, if I explain something that you already know I'm not meaning to imply you didn't know it, I just want to break it down to be as clear as possible)


A console is powered by a SoC (system on chip), the relevant portions of the SoC being the GPU which powers the graphics features and the CPU which handles the rest of the logic. Next to the SoC is the RAM which is the other main relevant component to discuss when talking specs. (Though nowadays I/O (input/output) components are also important, but AFAIK there is nothing tangible rumored on that front with regards to the Dane Switch so I'll be ignoring it).

• GPU- Dane is rumored to be on either Ampere or Lovelace architecture, which is 3/4 generations newer than Maxwell, which is the current Switch's architecture. There's no information I'm aware of on how many CUDA cores (what NVIDIA calls GPU cores) will be on Dane or what clock speeds it will be run at but based on the process node rumored (8nm) there is likely a limit that we can find based on the power draw known for 8nm chips. From what I've read we should be expecting somewhere between 2-2.5x performance over the base Switch in terms of raw flops (floating point operations per second, i.e. a way to calculate how fast a computer is) but raw flops across architectures are not exactly directly comparable since they are generally "theoretical" numbers. I'd estimate around ~3-4x performance over the base Switch which would put it around what the XB1 GPU can do in docked mode.

• CPU- Switch uses 4 Cortex A57 cores at ~1GHz generally. Dane is rumored to be a variant of Orin, which uses 12 A78 CPU cores. We don't know how many cores Dane will have but it's likely they'll try to increase over the 4 the Switch has, so I'd guess between 6 and 8. A78 cores. I can't remember exactly how A78 cores compare to A57 cores at the same clock speed but I know they are a good deal better. I remember the number 5x-9x being thrown around for the overall CPU comparison to the base Switch, and that'll of course depend on the amount of cores and their clock speeds, the latter of which can get higher on A78s at the same power draw due to efficiency upgrades. Theoretically Dane's CPU should outperform both XB1 and PS4 significantly in single core performance, and if there are 8 of them (currently unknown) then it will also do so in overall performance.

• RAM- There's no rumor about RAM but Nintendo should likely be using LPDDR5 which is a newer and more efficient variant than the LPDDR4 in the OG Switch or the LPDDR4X in Mariko Switches. Nintendo usually adds more RAM too in addition to faster RAM in most iterative upgrades. I'd guess 6-8GB with a higher speed, no idea how much higher though.

• Other features- this is likely the big "gimmick" of the Dane Switch- tensor cores. These are computing cores that specialize in AI/machine learning applications, most importantly here- DLSS (deep learning super sampling) which is a technique that uses a neural network to take a lower resolution image and make it look much higher in resolution, with extremely convincing results. DLSS can be the "secret sauce" which lets Dane punch far above its weight. For instance a developer can make a 4k native game for PS5 and port it to Dane Switch where it renders at 720p docked, but if they properly utilize DLSS it can instead be outputted at 1080p or 1440p, just as possible examples. And it will look like native 1080p/1440p, in some cases even better than native.

EDIT: Someone more savvy than me can feel free to correct anything I've put here

Completely agreed there. We have no idea how they're planning to name or market it. Also FYI there was never a rumor about lack of BC, it was all a discussion about how difficult it would be started by dataminers.

I'm just going to put this here for reference from Thraktor's itemization of potential CPU possibilities that was posted over on ResetERA sometime ago...


<["Specifically, I'm going to use the following Geekbench 5 single-core benchmarks:
Nvidia TX1 - Switch SoC - A57 @2GHz - 280
AMD A9-9820 - Xbox One APU - Jaguar @2.35GHz - 294
AMD 4700S - PS5 APU - Zen 2 @4GHz - 998
Mediatek Dimensity 1200 - A78 @3GHz - 975

To start off, a bunch of caveats. Geekbench 5 is a general-purpose benchmark which isn't necessarily going to reflect gaming workloads, but its ubiquity makes it useful in situations like this, comparing different CPU architectures several years apart across different ISAs. I'm only using single-core results because it's just too difficult to extrapolate from multi-core results, particularly with mixed core types and clock speeds on modern ARM chips. I'm including PS4 in my list, as I think the XBO APU is a reasonable proxy for it, but I'm not including Xbox Series S or X, as there are core-level differences compared to the PS5 APU (afaik the FP/SIMD unit is different). Xbox Series S and X should have higher scores than PS5, but I can't say by how much. If Nintendo do use A78 cores, they won't necessarily line up with the Dimensity 1200, as there could be differences in cache configuration, etc., but it's a pretty standard setup (4MB L2 cache, I believe), so it's probably a decent proxy. Finally, I'm assuming that these scores would scale linearly with clock speed.

So, that all said, single core Geekbench 5 figures for existing consoles should be:
Switch - A57 @1GHz - 140
PS4 - Jaguar @1.6GHz - 200
XBO - Jaguar @1.75GHz - 219
PS5 - Zen 2 @3.5GHz - 873

Hypothetical numbers for a new Switch with A78 cores at different clock speeds would then be:
A78 @1.2GHz - 390
A78 @1.6GHz - 520
A78 @2.0GHz - 650

I'd say 2GHz is unlikely, and only really plausible with 4 cores, but it gives you an idea of where the range of single-core performance is. Even with half as many cores, the new Switch could comfortably outperform the last gen consoles on the CPU front, and my "best case scenario" of 6x A78 @1.6GHz (with a couple of A55s for the OS), would outperform them by over a factor of 2. Of course there's still a big gap to the PS5/XBSX, but if T239 being base on Orin means using A78 cores, then there's definitely scope for a very big CPU upgrade on the new model."]>


Post in thread 'Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation and Discussion |OT|: "Now You're Playing with Super Power!"' https://www.resetera.com/threads/fu...playing-with-super-power.383900/post-68844301

 

[Oregano]

There's certainly a vein of that, yes. Some folks see new Nintendo hardware as almost a threat to Switch. I think some got so super-invested in Nintendo's ability to sell hardware units that it clouds their judgment of the situation, like folks who want it so badly to outsell the PS2, for example.

This comes down to middleware, just like it did with Switch's unprecedented support from 3rd-parties being facilitated at least in part by playing nice with middleware. If developers transition to, for example, Unreal Engine 5 in 2022 and use the Lumen and Nanite features to build their software (which... if you read up on those features, especially Nanite, why wouldn't they?), well... Epic is unsure all UE5 features like Nanite will be functional at the Switch hardware level, so there's a significant chance that excludes the Switch from any game made on that engine with those tools. Do you think Nintendo wants a release of Dragon Quest XII on their hardware? That may demand new hardware to be even remotely possible.

This can change on a dime, through no fault of Nintendo's. And they've been humbled way too many times now to give into a hubristic notion that the good times will keep on rolling; they want to be ready in the event that things take a sudden turn at the absolute least.

Honestly it seems like the opposite. People have been clamouring for the mythical Switch Pro to take them to the promised land for the last two/three years and have lost all perspective on how a typical console lifecycle works and keep clinging to the decline of a Wii despite the Switch's sales curve looking nothing like the Wii's.

Re: Dragon Quest XII - If Square Enix wants to develop Dragon Quest XII for the PS5 first and foremost that's going to hurt Dragon Quest a lot more than it will hurt Nintendo and releasing new hardware that's still massively less powerful than the PS5 puts them in the same situation as Dragon Quest XIS again - waiting several more years for a late downport.

 

[Kano]

Honestly it seems like the opposite. People have been clamouring for the mythical Switch Pro to take them to the promised land for the last two/three years and have lost all perspective on how a typical console lifecycle works and keep clinging to the decline of a Wii despite the Switch's sales curve looking nothing like the Wii's

Indeed, and it feels very ironic when the clouded judgment comment is aimed at those who expect the same situation of the past five years to simply continue, rather than the people who've been expecting the cycle to be shattered every year for the past three years, only to end up wrong each time.

 

[NineTailSage]

Indeed, and it feels very ironic when the clouded judgment comment is aimed at those who expect the same situation of the past five years to simply continue, rather than the people who've been expecting the cycle to be shattered every year for the past three years, only to end up wrong each time.

The problem with this thinking is that all of the console manufacturers are constantly working on future hardware and what to do next (hence why even though PS5 and Series X just launched) we are already hearing rumors of slim models in development.
The same is true for Nintendo in this case and it doesn't necessarily make insiders wrong about leaked information, just maybe out of sync from when this tech is scheduled to hit the market (or if things are slightly changed).

People love to pounce on these people when information doesn't come out as soon as we all would like it, but no one ever goes back and gives kudos to all that they've gotten right! Even the DigiTimes rumor about Nintendo using premium materials turned out to be true (in the OLED) even though at the time it sounded unlike Nintendo...

 

[Deleted member 645]

If that were the actual core discussion, sure; however, the subtle and passive attacks directed at Nikkei or Bloomberg reporting have become apparent in each and every single thread on this matter.

It’s pretty simple Nate. This “rumor” has been alive and well for years now. I honestly think people are tired of hearing about it and want something tangible/concrete. Yes we did get the switch OLED. However, that was not what most people were expecting. I have personally tuned out all rumors or anything. I can’t tell anyone what to do but I feel a break is needed. People really want this upgraded spec switch they are really thirsty for it. Bloomberg and Nikkei get the brunt of their frustrations, fair or not that’s the way it is.

 

[Simba1]

Doesn't this just mean that if there's new hardware releasing in 2022/23, it's going to be firmly part of the Switch family? Dane seems to exist either way, we just don't know if it will actually be used and what the product will be named.

It doesn't, this kind of statements means nothing at end.

 

[Simba1]

I wouldnt pay too much attention on this kind of statements, especially when comes to Nintendo hardware future plans.

 

[Donnie]

Staff Communication

Hey folks! As noted by some in this thread, whenever future Nintendo hardware comes up lately it turns into a weird pile-on against Bloomberg and Nikkei. This needs to stop. Journalists and sources do make mistakes on occasion, but to suggest a particular journalist is always wrong or to dismiss the significant amount of evidence being presented comes across as conspiratorial and ignorant.

Having said that, others should consider cooling their tempers a little, too. Hostility is not an appropriate response to ignorance. If you see posters being wilfully obtuse, you should report them; otherwise, consider disengaging if you're getting frustrated. - BozPaggs, Donnie, Hologram, Mazi, Rika

 

[Terrell]

Honestly it seems like the opposite. People have been clamouring for the mythical Switch Pro to take them to the promised land for the last two/three years and have lost all perspective on how a typical console lifecycle works and keep clinging to the decline of a Wii despite the Switch's sales curve looking nothing like the Wii's.

Re: Dragon Quest XII - If Square Enix wants to develop Dragon Quest XII for the PS5 first and foremost that's going to hurt Dragon Quest a lot more than it will hurt Nintendo and releasing new hardware that's still massively less powerful than the PS5 puts them in the same situation as Dragon Quest XIS again - waiting several more years for a late downport.

My point was DQXII is confirmed a UE5 game, so… 50/50 shot, because Epic themselves are being real cagey about which features of UE5 will make it to Switch, probably because they don’t know for sure yet.

So yes, it could well be PS5 only because it’s the only hardware that works with the middleware they chose.

 

[Skittzo]

It’s pretty simple Nate. This “rumor” has been alive and well for years now.

This isn't true though.

The problem here is the shorthand, "Switch Pro", that a lot have people have been using to describe a more powerful Switch since like 2018. There have been a number of rumors about a more powerful Switch since then but they have absolutely not been the same rumor, and to argue that they have is highly disingenuous.

In 2018 and 2019 reports of a Switch pro were referring to Nintendo's testing of TX2 for a new Switch which likely was a placeholder for Mariko, a die shrunk TX1 that wound up being in the 2019 revisions. People in the know saw that Mariko was a more efficient chip and assumed Nintendo would use that to get more performance out of some games since they had tested doing so on TX2, reportedly.

Then after the 2019 revisions launched and there was no power boost there were zero credible "Switch Pro" rumors until late 2020, which is when discussion started about a new Switch for 2021 or 2022, later known to be using Dane.


So these are two discrete rumors.

 

[Abzeronow]

If that were the actual core discussion, sure; however, the subtle and passive attacks directed at Nikkei or Bloomberg reporting have become apparent in each and every single thread on this matter.

When you have "4K on OLED" in reporting and then OLED doesn't have 4K, then there was some serious deficiencies in that reporting from a sensationalist press.

EDIT: Didn't get to the page with the staff communication. Obviously there is appetite for upgraded Switches or a successor and I don't blame reporters for trying to satisfy that.

 

[Deleted member 645]

This isn't true though.

The problem here is the shorthand, "Switch Pro", that a lot have people have been using to describe a more powerful Switch since like 2018. There have been a number of rumors about a more powerful Switch since then but they have absolutely not been the same rumor, and to argue that they have is highly disingenuous.

In 2018 and 2019 reports of a Switch pro were referring to Nintendo's testing of TX2 for a new Switch which likely was a placeholder for Mariko, a die shrunk TX1 that wound up being in the 2019 revisions. People in the know saw that Mariko was a more efficient chip and assumed Nintendo would use that to get more performance out of some games since they had tested doing so on TX2, reportedly.

Then after the 2019 revisions launched and there was no power boost there were zero credible "Switch Pro" rumors until late 2020, which is when discussion started about a new Switch for 2021 or 2022, later known to be using Dane.


So these are two discrete rumors.

The point is the idea and conversation has been out there for years. That being a more powerful switch console is coming. Every time a rumors from a credible source wasrelease it hyped. People used Bloomberg and others to say look it’s happening. They are legit they won’t speak on it unless it is real. We ended up with switch OLED. There was a lot that the rumors got right. The biggest issue was that there was no spec bump. People were frustrated because of this. This was the second time Nintendo released a revision without a spec bump. This is the reason a lot of shade is thrown at those outlets.

 

[Oregano]

Indeed, and it feels very ironic when the clouded judgment comment is aimed at those who expect the same situation of the past five years to simply continue, rather than the people who've been expecting the cycle to be shattered every year for the past three years, only to end up wrong each time.

The problem with this thinking is that all of the console manufacturers are constantly working on future hardware and what to do next (hence why even though PS5 and Series X just launched) we are already hearing rumors of slim models in development.
The same is true for Nintendo in this case and it doesn't necessarily make insiders wrong about leaked information, just maybe out of sync from when this tech is scheduled to hit the market.

People love to pounce on these people when information doesn't come out as soon as we all would like it, but no one ever goes back and gives kudos to all they've gotten right! Even the DigiTimes rumor about Nintendo using premium materials turned out to be true (in the OLED) even though at the time it sounded unlike Nintendo...

The issue is no one has ever disputed the idea that Nintendo would be working on new, more powerful hardware. New, more powerful hardware is an inevitability. I'm not even in perfect alignment with Kano here because I think Q1 2023 is right on time for when Nintendo would introduce new hardware based on the timeline of the DS, 3DS and Switch.

The reason it's frustrating personally is that we've having this same song and dance for literally years at this point, and the goalposts have moved so far from what the original premise was that it's been almost farcical. It's especially frustrating when there's a continual narrative of Switch about to fall off a cliff and third parties abandon it en masse which goes against the reality of what's happening.

The final thing I'll say is that's there nothing bad about journalists/insiders getting something wrong, they won't have the full image and they're filling in the blanks. That doesn't mean they're lying, have an agenda(though Mochi has been a saltmine recently when it comes to Nintendo lol) or any other nefarious character traits. It just means they missed on that one.

 

[Raccoon]

okay @Kano, no more pussyfooting around

what do you make of the 11 dev bloomberg report?

 

[Skittzo]

The point is the idea and conversation has been out there for years. That being a more powerful switch console is coming. Every time a rumors from a credible source wasrelease it hyped. People used Bloomberg and others to say look it’s happening. They are legit they won’t speak on it unless it is real. We ended up with switch OLED. There was a lot that the rumors got right. The biggest issue was that there was no spec bump. People were frustrated because of this. This was the second time Nintendo released a revision without a spec bump. This is the reason a lot of shade is thrown at those outlets.

That doesn't make these responses any more logical or mature though. As you said these publications got most of the details right both times, Bloomberg just mixed up a couple details in their report this year. Treating them like some tabloid rag because Nintendo hasn't put out the spec bump people want is simply toxic entitlement.

Anyway I get that you're just trying to explain why some people are acting irrationally.

okay @Kano, no more pussyfooting around

what do you make of the 11 dev bloomberg report?

I'm still salty that the future hardware thread wasn't titled "secret sauce made with 11 devs and spices"

 

[ILikeFeet]

Honestly it seems like the opposite. People have been clamouring for the mythical Switch Pro to take them to the promised land for the last two/three years and have lost all perspective on how a typical console lifecycle works and keep clinging to the decline of a Wii despite the Switch's sales curve looking nothing like the Wii's.

Re: Dragon Quest XII - If Square Enix wants to develop Dragon Quest XII for the PS5 first and foremost that's going to hurt Dragon Quest a lot more than it will hurt Nintendo and releasing new hardware that's still massively less powerful than the PS5 puts them in the same situation as Dragon Quest XIS again - waiting several more years for a late downport.

As the performance floor raises, scalability increases. Especially if SE decides to use tools like Lumen. They have many more ways to go down to Dane Switch. It's not a linear scale

My point was DQXII is confirmed a UE5 game, so… 50/50 shot, because Epic themselves are being real cagey about which features of UE5 will make it to Switch, probably because they don’t know for sure yet.

So yes, it could well be PS5 only because it’s the only hardware that works with the middleware they chose.

They aren't as cagey as you think. Lumen isn't coming to Switch or XBO and PS4. Nanite is supported however. The question is if DQ12 will make use of these features

 

[NineTailSage]

The point is the idea and conversation has been out there for years. That being a more powerful switch console is coming. Every time a rumors from a credible source wasrelease it hyped. People used Bloomberg and others to say look it’s happening. They are legit they won’t speak on it unless it is real. We ended up with switch OLED. There was a lot that the rumors got right. The biggest issue was that there was no spec bump. People were frustrated because of this. This was the second time Nintendo released a revision without a spec bump. This is the reason a lot of shade is thrown at those outlets.

Speculation topics are available for probably every device under the sun, why does this seem to bother people that choose to come into a thread labeled as such?

The issue is no one has ever disputed the idea that Nintendo would be working on new, more powerful hardware. New, more powerful hardware is an inevitability. I'm not even in perfect alignment with Kano here because I think Q1 2023 is right on time for when Nintendo would introduce new hardware based on the timeline of the DS, 3DS and Switch.

The reason it's frustrating personally is that we've having this same song and dance for literally years at this point, and the goalposts have moved so far from what the original premise was that it's been almost farcical. It's especially frustrating when there's a continual narrative of Switch about to fall off a cliff and third parties abandon it en masse which goes against the reality of what's happening.

The final thing I'll say is that's there nothing bad about journalists/insiders getting something wrong, they won't have the full image and they're filling in the blanks. That doesn't mean they're lying, have an agenda(though Mochi has been a saltmine recently when it comes to Nintendo lol) or any other nefarious character traits. It just means they missed on that one.

As Skittzo has stated above to simply say what we are discussing today is the same song and dance as it was yesterday is just a way to minimize everything that's happened in between. Of course Nintendo are a super secret company, so no one expects them to come out and give details about what their hardware plans may have been over the recent years. Things change and technologies advance in real-time so future Switch design plans could have easily changed once Nvidia finally realized DLSS into their line-up...

The main problem that we seem to run into when it comes to leaked information (and the way that the public perceives it), is that many choose to discredit such insiders even when they've gotten 3-4 things out of 5 right!

 

[Oregano]

Speculation topics are available for probably every device under the sun, why does this seem to bother people that choose to come into a thread labeled as such?


As Skittzo has stated above to simply say what we are discussing today is the same song and dance as it was yesterday is just a way to minimize everything that's happened in between. Of course Nintendo are a super secret company, so no one expects them to come out and give details about what their hardware plans may have been over the recent years. Things change and technologies advance in real-time so future Switch design plans could have easily changed once Nvidia finally realized DLSS into their line-up...

The main problem that we seem to run into when it comes to leaked information (and the way that the public perceives it), is that many choose to discredit such insiders even when they've gotten 3-4 things out of 5 right!

Not when we hearing that Age of Calamity was a sign that the Pro was just round the corner, or that Monster Hunter Rise was obviously showing Pro footage, and then that became that the Pro was releasing in 2021 and now that's the Pro is releasing in 2022/2023.

We're still seeing the phrase "Iterative successor" being thrown around despite the fact the original meaning of that phrasing was to explain why Nintendo was doing such a substantial upgrade so relatively early in the Switch's life - or we're still getting the "mobile model" cited despite the fact that mobile model was meant to mean more frequent upgrades with continuity of support across multiple models.

I distinctly remember this because I was being shouted down by the same people when I argued that it might not be a great idea to release a PS4/XBO level device just as third party publishers finally get their Switch exclusive games like Monster Hunter and Shin Megami Tensei V to market.

It's not contained to the dedicated speculation threads either, Switch Pro has continually derailed threads about Switch and Switch game for at least the past year.

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

Yeah we all need to take a deep breath. This is supposed to be fun. Let the people who want to complain and be skeptical do them, just learn to ignore them if it bothers you that much. As for me, I believe a new Dane Switch is coming next year until more information comes out to disprove my reasoning.

 

[Kano]

okay @Kano, no more pussyfooting around

what do you make of the 11 dev bloomberg report?

ngl i don't quite believe it

im sure he got told by 11 people that they received something but i think the something got transformed into SWITCH PRO 4K DLSS through the process of sharing informations without that necessarily being true. i think some of that is probably ADEV (switch oled) devkits misinterpreted as something else, alongside possibly bogus intel and maybe a couple devs that actually got briefed on nintendo's intent for the next console (maybe even got some prototype devkits, like Capcom got involved early on with the NX), with nothing definitive or imminent

the thing that hits me the most is that, out of all developers, ZYNGA is probably the last one to get early prototype devkits. they barely make any console games. they have zero importance in the current industry nor do they have any history with nintendo. they are only making a star wars f2p for mobile and switch next year and i don't see why they would somehow be one of the earliest developers with access to the future of nintendo, when they were very restrictive for the NX

 

[NineTailSage]

Not when we hearing that Age of Calamity was a sign that the Pro was just round the corner, or that Monster Hunter Rise was obviously showing Pro footage, and then that became that the Pro was releasing in 2021 and now that's the Pro is releasing in 2022/2023.

We're still seeing the phrase "Iterative successor" being thrown around despite the fact the original meaning of that phrasing was to explain why Nintendo was doing such a substantial upgrade so relatively early in the Switch's life - or we're still getting the "mobile model" cited despite the fact that mobile model was meant to mean more frequent upgrades with continuity of support across multiple models.

I distinctly remember this because I was being shouted down by the same people when I argued that it might not be a great idea to release a PS4/XBO level device just as third party publishers finally get their Switch exclusive games like Monster Hunter and Shin Megami Tensei V to market.

It's not contained to the dedicated speculation threads either, Switch Pro has continually derailed threads about Switch and Switch game for at least the past year.

Again you can't put what the community is discussing onto credible leakers that have never hinted at any of of what you stated above, but still speculation shouldn't be a crime as long as everyone comes into the conversation understanding those grounds.

When it comes to the conversation of iterative successor, that term only came up because Nintendo continues to say to the public that Switch is only half way through its lifecycle. Everyone here knows that the Switch absolutely cannot continue for another 4-5 years without receiving more capable hardware (to which it doesn't matter what it's called in name) it will be apart of the Switch family of systems...

 

[Kano]

Everyone here knows that the Switch absolutely cannot continue for another 4-5 years without receiving more capable hardware (to which it doesn't matter what it's called in name) it will be apart of the Switch family of systems...

Can it not? Why exactly couldn't it? What exactly has changed to the industry in-between 2017 and now? The same games the Switch doesn't get today are those it was already not getting in 2017, and even a stronger hardware will still not allow it to get them.

What are the games so necessary to the Switch that it needs a beefier hardware to receive them? What's at risk of being lost?

 

[lemonfresh]

Indeed, and it feels very ironic when the clouded judgment comment is aimed at those who expect the same situation of the past five years to simply continue, rather than the people who've been expecting the cycle to be shattered every year for the past three years, only to end up wrong each time.

When do think nintendos next system is coming? 2023? 2024?

 

[Oregano]

Again you can't put what the community is discussing onto credible leakers that have never hinted at any of of what you stated above, but still speculation shouldn't be a crime as long as everyone comes into the conversation understanding those grounds.

When it comes to the conversation of iterative successor, that term only came up because Nintendo continues to say to the public that Switch is only half way through its lifecycle. Everyone here knows that the Switch absolutely cannot continue for another 4-5 years without receiving more capable hardware (to which it doesn't matter what it's called in name) it will be apart of the Switch family of systems...

I never was though? I've never attacked leakers or journalists. I'll call them out when they're wrong though, for instance whilst it's credible that Mochi conflated separate sources on OLED vs new Switch, the crux of the reports from places like Bloomberg and Eurogamer was it was because third parties were going to announce games for the platform at E3 - which was wrong(for whatever reason).

...and no iterative successor was definitely used to explain why such an upgrade would come earlier. The common explanation was that Nintendo would move to a model of releasing new hardware every 3 to 4 years and the older hardware would be phased out so that Nintendo would be supporting two iterations at a time. Switch would lose support when Switch V3 was brought to market.

The idea that Nintendo would release new hardware when Switch was 6 years old was un-thought of, because as is being said now Nintendo can't afford to wait until the platform has lost steam and developers need it.

Can it not? Why exactly couldn't it? What exactly has changed to the industry in-between 2017 and now? The same games the Switch doesn't get today are those it was already not getting in 2017, and even a stronger hardware will still not allow it to get them.

What are the games so necessary to the Switch that it needs a beefier hardware to receive them? What's at risk of being lost?

You know I listened to the Kinda Funny Games Daily and they talked about how Switch would lose 3rd party support and the two examples they said were Guardians of the Galaxy and Riders Republic not being ported to Switch - but neither were their predecessors(RIP Steep).

 

[Raccoon]

some people are taking this very personally. I probably should tone down the shitposting a bit now that this has become something people are offended about

ngl i don't quite believe it

im sure he got told by 11 people that they received something but i think the something got transformed into SWITCH PRO 4K DLSS through the process of sharing informations without that necessarily being true. i think some of that is probably ADEV (switch oled) devkits misinterpreted as something else, alongside possibly bogus intel and maybe a couple devs that actually got briefed on nintendo's intent for the next console (maybe even got some prototype devkits, like Capcom got involved early on with the NX), with nothing definitive or imminent

the thing that hits me the most is that, out of all developers, ZYNGA is probably the last one to get early prototype devkits. they barely make any console games. they have zero importance in the current industry nor do they have any history with nintendo. they are only making a star wars f2p for mobile and switch next year and i don't see why they would somehow be one of the earliest developers with access to the future of nintendo, when they were very restrictive for the NX

The Zynga inclusion is very strange. Maybe the next hardware is trying to be more than a Switch, and they are trying to create more mobile experiences for it? Otherwise I can't imagine that they're part of the earliest push. The alternative could be that this thing is much further along than it ought to be, and it's been pushed back a bunch. But if that were the case, I imagine we'd actually know more about it. It's definitely a weird situation

 

[ILikeFeet]

The Zynga inclusion is very strange. Maybe the next hardware is trying to be more than a Switch, and they are trying to create more mobile experiences for it? Otherwise I can't imagine that they're part of the earliest push. The alternative could be that this thing is much further along than it ought to be, and it's been pushed back a bunch. But if that were the case, I imagine we'd actually know more about it. It's definitely a weird situation

Zynga is making a push to more "console" styled games. Star Wars Hunters is a part of that push

 

[Kano]

You know I listened to the Kinda Funny Games Daily and they talked about how Switch would lose 3rd party support and the two examples they said were Guardians of the Galaxy and Riders Republic not being ported to Switch - but neither were their predecessors(RIP Steep).

Yeah this is the stuff I'm talking about. People somehow think that a more powerful console (keeping in mind it will still be a tablet, so it'll still be very underpowered compared to a PS5 or XSX, i think most people agree that whatever it is will be PS4 power at best) will means all those games are going to come to the next system but that's just not going to happen. Some more games would probably happen, but the bulk of the third party support will be the same games that are already on the Switch: AA games for the most part (be it both ports and original titles), some exclusive AAA titles, with late ports of some others AAA games, and many free-to-play titles. And clearly it's fine just like that.

Until Nintendo makes a standard box like PS5 and XSX, that situation won't change lol.

some people are taking this very personally. I probably should tone down the shitposting a bit now that this has become something people are offended about


The Zynga inclusion is very strange. Maybe the next hardware is trying to be more than a Switch, and they are trying to create more mobile experiences for it? Otherwise I can't imagine that they're part of the earliest push. The alternative could be that this thing is much further along than it ought to be, and it's been pushed back a bunch. But if that were the case, I imagine we'd actually know more about it. It's definitely a weird situation

I'm thinking maybe Zynga has bigger plans but I honestly don't believe it. Star Wars Hunters is supposed to be one of their first console push but it's still a mobile mtx fest that just happens to also be on Switch.

When do think nintendos next system is coming? 2023? 2024?

I've explained my stance a couple time but basically, another hardware should release about two years after the OLED (so, holiday 2023 more or less) that will be still integrated into the current Switch family of hardware (so, "Switch 1"), and the next system will release one to two years after that one.

 

[Skittzo]

Not when we hearing that Age of Calamity was a sign that the Pro was just round the corner, or that Monster Hunter Rise was obviously showing Pro footage, and then that became that the Pro was releasing in 2021 and now that's the Pro is releasing in 2022/2023.

We're still seeing the phrase "Iterative successor" being thrown around despite the fact the original meaning of that phrasing was to explain why Nintendo was doing such a substantial upgrade so relatively early in the Switch's life - or we're still getting the "mobile model" cited despite the fact that mobile model was meant to mean more frequent upgrades with continuity of support across multiple models.

I distinctly remember this because I was being shouted down by the same people when I argued that it might not be a great idea to release a PS4/XBO level device just as third party publishers finally get their Switch exclusive games like Monster Hunter and Shin Megami Tensei V to market.

It's not contained to the dedicated speculation threads either, Switch Pro has continually derailed threads about Switch and Switch game for at least the past year.

You seem to be conflating two different topics here- people being tired of the discourse in general (which is absolutely fair IMO) and people distrusting and downright being hostile towards actually industry sources like Bloomberg/Nikkei.

Yes, the "pro" discussions have gone on a long time and have gotten annoying in a lot of cases (especially like "MHR is totally using pro footage") but that is in no way attributable to Bloomberg rumors or the like. People lash out in hostility towards genuine sources seemingly because they're tired of what random forum posters are simply shitposting about.

It's illogical and irrational.

 

[ika]

The fact that it doesnt mention the introduction of any more hardware initiative but centralize their entire 2022 strategy on 1. the OLED and 2. their robust line-up of games planned for next year, strongly indicates that this is how they intend to tackle 2022. That's their strategy. Releasing another hardware would be a significant element of their plans that they arent even slightly hinting at or including.

The fact that OLED is their main plan to achieve a sixth year of growth all but indicates that this is the hardware they will push for all of next year. It wouldnt make sense with this strategy to have yet another hardware next year.

They won't reveal this soon if they're planning to release new hardware next year, so that part of that answer is just a non-statement/general speaking. Usually they don't announce plans and details for the next FY until the current one is ending, never before the biggest period of the year for sales are over and NEVER casually in a Q&A for investors. So let's just wait a bit before jumping to conclusions.

 

[Raccoon]

bloomberg is a company in the business of releasing industry secrets to the benefit of investors. making fun of them when they're wrong is our right and duty as citizens

 

[Brawlz]

Thinking that Bloomberg and Nikkei are making things up is a thing I keep seeing and its laughably ludicrous. These places pride themselves on there insider information, and following there track record, they have been absolutely correct numerous times that people tend to forget when one piece of information they divulged was partially incorrect (And only partially because the Pro information they had could always be what Nate was referring to as whatever Switch Nintendo is going to brand next)

Monolith Soft hit their limit the first year so...

Considering Torna is better optimized and the only other game they released was a remake/remaster, this isn't accurate, not yet anyway. Lets wait until there next big title before assuming this.

 

[Sadist]

bloomberg is a company in the business of releasing industry secrets to the benefit of investors. making fun of them when they're wrong is our right and duty as citizens

Come on dude, that not really necessary.

They might have gotten unreliable info, but making fun seems rather odd. I don’t get this hostility at all. Especially towards a Nikkei, which before Directs and conferences always had juicy tidbits.

 

[ika]

You're reading way too much into that one slide. There's nothing even in that slide saying the OLED model is the main focus of 2022 like you're claiming. Literally all it says is "With the Nintendo Switch lineup and its new addition, Nintendo Switch- OLED model, we will aim for a sixth year of growth"

Nothing from that statement implies the OLED model is their main driver for growth. Rather, the software being mentioned first signals to me that's their main driver.

And even if you could read it as them saying the OLED model would be their main growth driver for 2022, nothing about that idea remotely contradicts the idea of new hardware in 2022. I'm not saying we'll definitely get new hardware or anything, but your reasoning for coming to the conclusion that there will not be is extremely shaky.


Huh? Why on earth would they mention publicly that they plan to expand the Switch family in 2022 when they literally just released a new Switch model not a month ago? That makes no sense.


You guys are reading an awful lot into a fairly innocuous statement on strategy for the next year. There is absolutely nothing so far indicating they won't launch new hardware in 2022, especially not the mention of the new OLED model as a growth driver. Obviously there's nothing (official) indicating that they will launch new hardware in 2022 either, but you really can't take anything said here to mean they don't plan to.

Yeah, I agree completely with this. Neither the slides or the Q&A answer are that insightful as some people are claiming.

 

[Raccoon]

Come on dude, that not really necessary.

but it's hilarious

one of the most respected publications in business was wrong about a fucking nintendo

they report on industries across the world but nintendo was just too slippery to get right

 

[lemonfresh]

but it's hilarious

one of the most respected publications in business was wrong about a fucking nintendo

they report on industries across the world but nintendo was just too slippery to get right

youre right it is kinda funny

 

[Kano]

Thinking that Bloomberg and Nikkei are making things up is a thing I keep seeing and its laughably ludicrous.

Generally speaking though, Bloomberg has absolutely made up things in the past. In a lot of fields, many tech industries are spreading wrong infos for different means (stock speculation, pushing a political agenda, baiting a reaction... sometimes they genuinely believe they have right infos but end up wrong). Not saying this is the case, but no industry reporter is worth blindly believing. Every piece of information has to be critically analyzed.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

I previously meant to point to the underlying assumptions and contentions and how they led to reading particular elements into the statements presented in the OP, and how that led to the thread being framed more as a rebuttal against the idea of new hardware releasing anytime soon than as a focus on the statements themselves. I still maintain that the statements were read into and the summaries editorialized as a result.
Naturally, given my interpretation of the reasonings behind this, based on further posts in the thread, it related to people taking issue with the leaks and rumors, just by default. And it's not an element of the topic that went unnoticed, instead expanding.
The thread has leaned that way from its start for those reasons, but my intent was not to draw it further in that direction. Alas, here we are now, the endless dance.

I don't know if the Bloomberg article about the 11 thirds having devkits was bad faith. But of course was a bad timing releasing it just some days before the Oled was out.

I'm not criticising the content but the timing regarding Bloomberg.

This has been a talking point a lot, too. I've seen some people going so far as to ask why Nintendo couldn't just go to Bloomberg to say, "hey, we've got this new hardware coming out right now, so could you maybe not run this at this time?"
And I don't know if this comes from being too familiar with games journalism style access journalism and not familiar enough with non-access journalism, but it presupposes that the outlet necessarily need act as an arm of the company's marketing cycle.
Going to press at any time will interfere with the company's marketing plans, and the media isn't obligated to work around that.
As for not knowing if the article itself was in bad faith, well, I'll reiterate that would be a massive scandal, the sort that can upend careers.

Honestly it seems like the opposite. People have been clamouring for the mythical Switch Pro to take them to the promised land for the last two/three years and have lost all perspective on how a typical console lifecycle works and keep clinging to the decline of a Wii despite the Switch's sales curve looking nothing like the Wii's.

I think there's a bit of both; it's just the Pro Team has had bait held in front of it a number of times now, and that bait has pointed to something further down each time but not exactly what was suggested. This then leads all of this to be conflated as some nebulous rumors, rather than discrete items at different times.
Some people just want a Pro, yes (and, again, we're going to run into the issue of not necessarily referring to the same things here), but others are actually looking at what the rumors and leaks are saying and trying to disentangle them.

It’s pretty simple Nate. This “rumor” has been alive and well for years now. I honestly think people are tired of hearing about it and want something tangible/concrete. Yes we did get the switch OLED. However, that was not what most people were expecting. I have personally tuned out all rumors or anything. I can’t tell anyone what to do but I feel a break is needed. People really want this upgraded spec switch they are really thirsty for it. Bloomberg and Nikkei get the brunt of their frustrations, fair or not that’s the way it is.

As an example of how these get conflated into one amorphous rumor. The thing is, these have been different rumors, referring to different hardware. They've been leading to tangible results, just, like Tron notes, not what people expect (Though I recall a number of people specifically saying they really didn't think the information from production pipelines for 2021 was the same as the 4K information). It's been really interesting to look at and watch unfold,
Part of this goes back to the whole problem of using the same or different nomenclature for every different thing, and some of it is just in not considering that this rumor is a number of different rumors, which have actually pointed to tangible releases.
And I know you're trying to rationalize people's issues with the information coming out -- and I applaud you for that --, but it does end up going beyond frustrations. People legit push the narrative that these outlets are seriously just out to get Nintendo.

When you have "4K on OLED" in reporting and then OLED doesn't have 4K, then there was some serious deficiencies in that reporting from a sensationalist press.

EDIT: Didn't get to the page with the staff communication. Obviously there is appetite for upgraded Switches or a successor and I don't blame reporters for trying to satisfy that.

And those deficiencies were in conflating information from two disparate types of sources, developer and production. I think it's a bit much to boil this down to trying to satisfy an appetite for upgrades, and I also don't think referring to these as sensationalist presses is giving them a fair shake. Again, Bloomberg, for instance, is aimed at investors. It's not actually meant for us.

Not when we hearing that Age of Calamity was a sign that the Pro was just round the corner, or that Monster Hunter Rise was obviously showing Pro footage, and then that became that the Pro was releasing in 2021 and now that's the Pro is releasing in 2022/2023.

We're still seeing the phrase "Iterative successor" being thrown around despite the fact the original meaning of that phrasing was to explain why Nintendo was doing such a substantial upgrade so relatively early in the Switch's life - or we're still getting the "mobile model" cited despite the fact that mobile model was meant to mean more frequent upgrades with continuity of support across multiple models.

I distinctly remember this because I was being shouted down by the same people when I argued that it might not be a great idea to release a PS4/XBO level device just as third party publishers finally get their Switch exclusive games like Monster Hunter and Shin Megami Tensei V to market.

It's not contained to the dedicated speculation threads either, Switch Pro has continually derailed threads about Switch and Switch game for at least the past year.

Along the same lines, I find this is conflating different issues. It sounds like you've had some bad experiences with people clamoring for a new hardware model, but these particular happenings and talking points don't really effect the issues at hand. Even adapting language, as is wont to happen, can be as innocent as seeing that there's a lack of communication in some area and a particular term can fill that gap (iterative successor vs clean break or some such, for example).
And that's not to say you aren't dealing with any unreasonable people. Just that these unreasonable individuals don't dictate the core reasons other people might expect new hardware.

I'll agree the concept has been derailing discussions around the internet for a while, but I want to note that "the past year" is calling in baggage from elsewhere. This site hasn't existed that long. It'll have its own issues, but a lot of that doesn't apply right here, at least not yet.

As for this thread, I feel it was steered in that direction from inception (for reasons outlined previously).

 

[Deleted member 2]

Monolith Soft hit their limit the first year so...

Xenoblade 2 is absolutely not Monolith Soft's Switch limit lol

 

[Supreme Overlord]

Come on dude, that not really necessary.

They might have gotten unreliable info, but making fun seems rather odd. I don’t get this hostility at all. Especially towards a Nikkei, which before Directs and conferences always had juicy tidbits.

He's grabbing his takes from the dumpster, as raccoons are wont to do. They are a mischievous critter, clever ones at that, and take great delight in seeing what will happen with whatever dreck they can manage to pull from our human refuse. Look at the gleam of abject joy in that creature's eyes. Would you take that from him?

Don't worry, little buddy raccoon, I've got your back. Run free through those dumpsters and trash heaps of our hominid glory.

 

[Brewster123]

Monolith Soft hit their limit the first year so...

Given all the stuff Monolith was dealing with at the time of XC2's release (Its development was streamlined to hit the 2017 release date and there was a lot of outsourcing going on for art assets), I don't think it is a good barometer for the Switch's capabilities. Torna is a better indication of their limits, though I don't think Torna really pushed the system like the base game did.

 

[Glio]

Xenoblade 2 is absolutely not Monolith Soft's Switch limit lol

I know, I was being ironic, I need a /s. People say that "Switch is showing its age" but it's like always have been.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

Despite the almost inevitable descent of this thread toward the rumors and leaks, sources to be tossed out, new hardware battle discourse, there are definitely different elements that can be found here.

The YoY projected increase, the interplay between the lowered hardware forecast and that increased for software.
Regardless of any potential new hardware on the horizon, things are looking good for what we currently already have available.
The Switch has been amazing for software sales (I don't even have one yet, but I've been getting different games in preparation, mostly those I expect I won't be able to find later but also some I just really want to support), and it's neat to see the expectation that this will only increase.

This has been a very good system for a lot of games, and I expect it will keep selling those for years to come. It does seem a missed opportunity that some games and franchises haven't found their way to it yet.

 

[unkindlynice]

Quite clear their software investment will be to drive sales for the Switch going forward. I still expect a Switch 2 in 2023 at the latest.

But this also will come down to supply. Switch 2 will have never before seen early demand imo.

 

[Raccoon]

stop caping for bloomberg

they were wrong, that's funny, end of story

 

[Skittzo]

stop caping for bloomberg

they were wrong, that's funny, end of story

That's no reason to be hostile towards them though, which is the behavior actually being discussed here.

 

[Rogue Agent]

I can't wait for more unofficial details on Dane Switch next year, so this shitposting can stop for at least a little while.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Nintendo's talking a lot, but they're not really saying all that much. Some loosely collected thoughts on the matter:

I think it's clear that "Nintendo Switch" as a brand isn't going away any time soon, but there's plenty of precedent for Nintendo's successors retaining the branding of their predecessors, especially when they're fairly iterative.

It's possibly notable that that 20XX slide skips over an entire (iterative, similarly branded) generation.

"Successor" is a term with a lot of baggage that means different things to different people.

Because this can't be repeated enough: While it is sometimes true that consoles drop dead when their successor releases, this is not a necessary component of the transition.

Is that not accurate?

It is debatable if Cuda cores are really "cores". There's a decent argument to be had that they're really threads, and the cores are really more at the SM level.

ngl i don't quite believe it

im sure he got told by 11 people that they received something but i think the something got transformed into SWITCH PRO 4K DLSS through the process of sharing informations without that necessarily being true. i think some of that is probably ADEV (switch oled) devkits misinterpreted as something else, alongside possibly bogus intel and maybe a couple devs that actually got briefed on nintendo's intent for the next console (maybe even got some prototype devkits, like Capcom got involved early on with the NX), with nothing definitive or imminent

the thing that hits me the most is that, out of all developers, ZYNGA is probably the last one to get early prototype devkits. they barely make any console games. they have zero importance in the current industry nor do they have any history with nintendo. they are only making a star wars f2p for mobile and switch next year and i don't see why they would somehow be one of the earliest developers with access to the future of nintendo, when they were very restrictive for the NX

There were separate rumors of ADEV that showed up well after the 4k DLSS ones started. I don't think we have any solid evidence anyone outside of Nintendo knew of ADEV before maybe June or so, when the 4k DLSS ones had already been going for around half a year at that point.

 

[DecoReturns]

stop caping for bloomberg

they were wrong, that's funny, end of story

No need to be dismissive of the actual issue regarding the Bloomberg situation.

 

[Raccoon]

No need to be dismissive of the actual issue regarding the Bloomberg situation.

wait what's the actual issue then

I thought people were just making fun of bloomberg and at worst not believing them