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Hardware Furukawa on next gen Switch: still thinking about the concept of the machine, too early to talk about it, current Switch still in mid life

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Kano

Kano

yoda gaming
From the recent earnings result as well as the Q&A that just happened, Shuntaro Furukawa gave a few important comments on Nintendo's strategy for its next gen hardware. Since I feel this could lead to a lot of discussion I took the liberty to create a separate thread for these, as well as to include my interpretation of these comments.

First off, the slide commenting the next gen hardware strategy. It details the plan to keep Nintendo accounts as well as NSO from the current switch to the next gen one. This was probably expected but it is still nice to see. Besides that, they only confirm the next hardware will be another console.

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Next, Furukawa's comments in the Q&A. The transcript isn't here yet so those are the report of David Gibson, present there during the event.



Nintendo considers the Switch to be in the middle of its life at the moment, and that it is too early to say anything about the future. They are counting on OLED to keep momentum going into the next year.



They do give an update on the status of next gen and confirm it is currently in concept discussion, seemingly still early in development, and that they have not decided on a final product as well as a release timing. It looks like we won't hear about the device for several more years.



Nintendo has also detailed its 2022 strategy for the Nintendo Switch. It will focus essentially on the OLED. They are aiming at a sixth year of growth, which would be unprecedented, thanks to OLED and a strong lineup of games next year. Their strategy for next year's growth sits entirely on their ability to release a wide range of software, diversify the library of the console and entice people to buy an OLED.

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I will update the thread with eventually more findings as well as the official translation of the transcript when it's available.

It'll be interesting to see your opinion on these comments and infos, especially considering many rumors are trying to pin the next gen switch as releasing next year. It doesn't seem likely to me that any hardware at all is planned to release next year considering all of this.
 
I think the middle phase is a range of time that will occur until they announce the successor. In that moment the final phase of switch's cycle will start. To me that means a year or year and a half more of middle phase. Along with what Nate's been hearing.
 
Everybody else having a mid-life crisis and Switch spending mid-life thriving.

Raccoon said:
okay, this is definitely less of a fluff statement. the Danefense is gonna be weak for this one
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Certainly the most significant statement they've made on a successor system for a while. Doesn't rule out a more powerful iterative device, though.
 
WestEgg said:
It’s pretty bold that Nintendo themselves are setting a goal for YoY growth for the Switch in 2022, as basically no one has seen that as the current trend, especially with supply chain constraints. They must be confident in next year’s pipeline.
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I believe that's referring to revenue, and not install base. They have a big install base which is still highly engaged, which should allow them to generate a lot of revenue especially with the big lineup.

NSO+Expansion Pack will be part of that too.
 
Doesn't this just mean that if there's new hardware releasing in 2022/23, it's going to be firmly part of the Switch family? Dane seems to exist either way, we just don't know if it will actually be used and what the product will be named.
 
Oregano said:
I believe that's referring to revenue, and not install base. They have a big install base which is still highly engaged, which should allow them to generate a lot of revenue especially with the big lineup.

NSO+Expansion Pack will be part of that too.
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Ah, that makes sense then.
 
WestEgg said:
It’s pretty bold that Nintendo themselves are setting a goal for YoY growth for the Switch in 2022, as basically no one has seen that as the current trend, especially with supply chain constraints. They must be confident in next year’s pipeline.
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It's not necessarily hardware sales, as that would probably be impossible, but rather growth on different other aspects like revenue, software sales, NSO integration etc.
 
Dardan Sandiego said:
Doesn't this just mean that if there's new hardware releasing in 2022/23, it's going to be firmly part of the Switch family? Dane seems to exist either way, we just don't know if it will actually be used and what the product will be named.
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At the moment it means that if anything releases in the near future, say 2023, it'll be integrated into the current Switch hardware/family and won't be a successor, like Lite and OLED. The actual successor is still in concept phase and doesn't seem like it's releasing anytime soon.

And it also strongly suggests that nothing is releasing next year as Nintendo focuses on the OLED.
 
Kano said:
It's not necessarily hardware sales, as that would probably be impossible, but rather growth on different other aspects like revenue, software sales, NSO integration etc.
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Yeah, that's my take as well. The software sales should be able to continue see growth, both from licensing revenue and internal first and second party titles (as well as third party publishing deals) sales.
 
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I'm sure they have contingencies, depending on how the market responds.
But there is sense in maintaining the current course. A major reason Wii sales fell off a cliff after 2010 was lack of new software, especially from Nintendo. With Switch, they could be able to pull off a few extra years with continued first party support. Instead of releasing succesor devices that underperform (see: 3DS, Wii U), I bet they'd like to hold on to their current user base until technology is ripe for them to disrupt themselves with a new paradigm.
 
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While I think most of the next gen speculation is ridiculous, I just want to remind some people that a next gen console can release while the previous one is still alive (as seen those past two gens).
Given the timeframe (mid-life or not), they already know about the core concept anyway, it's just the time where they're still changing/finishing details.
 
Hmmm well basically I don’t think there’s gonna be a Pro or 2 next year. Heck we might have to wait til 2023-2024 for the successor.

Also I do hope they beef up NSO.
 
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This kinda reassures me of my belief that Dane's gonna be a GBC kind of thing, rather than a new platform.

It is what I want.

I want Switch as a platform to last as long as possible and get the best possible overall library of games it could have.

Y'all who think the hardware is getting long in the tooth can reap the benefits of Dane without making the platform wrap it up in 2022 or early 2023.
 
Sander RX said:
This kinda reassures me of my belief that Dane's gonna be a GBC kind of thing, rather than a new platform.

It is what I want.

I want Switch as a platform to last as long as possible and get the best possible overall library of games it could have.

Y'all who think the hardware is getting long in the tooth can reap the benefits of Dane without making the platform wrap it up in 2022 or early 2023.
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That's how normal successors work now though. PS4 and Xbox One are still getting supported, with flagship games.

It's a distinction without a difference.
 
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Dark Cloud said:
This doesn’t rule out a more powerful Switch coming like most people believe.
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It doesn't, but it does suggest such a model would be fully backwards compatible, which is what most of us hardcore fans want, I believe.
 
I mean, a Switch successor could launch in 2024 and Furukawa's comment on the Switch being mid-life would technically still be correct. We're 4.5 years into the Switch's life and a winter 2024 release would give the Switch a 7.5 year life, which is still huge compared to historical consoles. a console having an 8-10 year life is pretty much unprecedented. If Nintendo launch a new console in 2025 and beyond we'll probably be hearing rumblings of a PS6 at that point. That's a pretty big gap.

I do wonder if the global chip shortage has caused Nintendo to re-evaluate their plans mind, especially with the Switch still selling whatever they produce. Maybe they can afford to hold fire for a couple years more, giving their teams and partners plenty of time to deliver an impressive launch lineup, while the Switch and its evergreens continue to rake in the dosh.
 
Dark Cloud said:
This doesn’t rule out a more powerful Switch coming like most people believe.
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It rules out a successor coming anytime soon though. And that anything is releasing next year.

Doesn't rule out a Pro is coming though, you're right. It could release in 2023.
 
WestEgg said:
It’s pretty bold that Nintendo themselves are setting a goal for YoY growth for the Switch in 2022, as basically no one has seen that as the current trend, especially with supply chain constraints. They must be confident in next year’s pipeline.
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Of course they are, Bayo 3 is comin baby!
 
Important to note that when they say Switch has years left that doesn’t mean the next Switch can’t come out beforehand. Sony doesn’t consider their prior consoles to be dead when the next gen arrives. Look how strong support for the PS4 still is.

In my view we will see the next Switch in 2023.
 
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To me (and confirming my bias) this also indicates backwards compatibility since they want to increase the userbase as one of their main target (like iOS new phones come every year, software stays compatible). Fingers crossed.
 
Intoxicate said:
To me (and confirming my bias) this also indicates backwards compatibility since they want to increase the userbase as one of their main target (like iOS new phones come every year, software stays compatible). Fingers crossed.
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Nintendo wants to connect everything and carry over everything they've achieved. Any rumor talking about a lack of BC was always total nonsense.
 
When Nintendo talks about the "lifespan" for Switch, they mean it in terms of software support and potentially the hardware production. It all really depends on what Nintendo considers "next gen" because whatever Dane is could be coming out in the next 1-2 years and could be considered part of the current Switch family. To reiterate, what the shareholders and Nintendo consider "next-gen" can be vastly different in terms of form factor, release timing, software support, etc.

Either way, with the OLED having just come out and Nintendo having a strong SW slate next year, there was not way they were gonna say, "yeah, next gen is right around the corner". Remember that the 3DS XL launched little over a year before the new 3DS and Nintendo definitely didn't consider new 3DS to be next gen". So Dane launching in, say Nov. 2022, would line up similarly timing wise and still allow them to speak the truth here.
 
mariodk18 said:
So Dane launching in, say Nov. 2022, would line up similarly timing wise and still allow them to speak the truth here
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It wouldn't. They have detailed their 2022 strategy already and it focuses entirely on the OLED.

Of all the possible outcomes, anything releasing in 2022 is the least likely. It would be a direct contradiction of what has been said in today's earnings results. Not to mention that by furukawa's comments, the next gen Switch is still in concept phase, its far from releasing anytime soon.
 
The only reason we knew about Switch so early into Wii U's and 3DS's life cycle was to assuage fears that Nintendo was exiting the hardware market with the DeNA partnership. Had that not happened, you could have reasonably expected fervent denials until they were ready to talk about it.

For those who don't recall, Wii U speculation started really kicking into gear in late 2009/early 2010, and during that time, Nintendo was categorically denying its existence and saying they hadn't run out of ideas for Wii yet to release new hardware. A little over 2 years later, new hardware arrived.

With 10 or more developers telling reporters that they had very preliminary 4K-capable hardware dev kits since July (and let's be clear, when you got 10 or more developer sources saying that, that'd be a LOT of smoke for no fire) and reliable leaks showing the existence of a new SoC, we're on a 2-3 year ticking clock to substantial new hardware.
 
The good news is the NSO restart from zero won’t happen for a long time. One reason why games release slowly because they will be adding for many more years.
 
Dark Cloud said:
The good news is the NSO restart from zero won’t happen for a long time. One reason why games release slowly because they will be adding for many more years.
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FINALLY, an online setup that will last. That’s indeed good news.
 
Nintendo, don’t overthink the concept. Here’s your concept: a Switch 2 with modern chips and more powerful hardware. Boom. Move on.
 
Scrawnton said:
Nintendo, don’t overthink the concept. Here’s your concept: a Switch 2 with modern chips and more powerful hardware. Boom. Move on.
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I mean that's probably what we're all thinking and clearly they're going to go in with that in mind - but they also want to innovate because that's in their DNA.

System integrations, hardware improvements, OS improvements, general functionality, VR(?) etc. - there's plenty of stuff that's gonna need a lot of R&D, they know they have a winner with Switch but also want have that wow-factor.
 
Raccoon said:
I hadn't considered that angle. Here's your confirmation, @Skittzo: if it's real, Dane is a pro
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I promise I'll actually read this thread later but for now...

YUUPP.

Though as I've been saying it won't be called a pro, it's more like the new 3DS or Gameboy Color.
 
Galgavias said:
I do wonder if the global chip shortage has caused Nintendo to re-evaluate their plans mind, especially with the Switch still selling whatever they produce. Maybe they can afford to hold fire for a couple years more, giving their teams and partners plenty of time to deliver an impressive launch lineup, while the Switch and its evergreens continue to rake in the dosh.
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Bailing on production contracts are not cheap. They can "afford" it but that's a write down in several millions
 
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Oregano said:
I believe that's referring to revenue, and not install base. They have a big install base which is still highly engaged, which should allow them to generate a lot of revenue especially with the big lineup.

NSO+Expansion Pack will be part of that too.
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Yeah this is how I read it too. FY2021 won't be a year of hardware growth so you can't exactly have a sixth year if you don't have a fifth first.

Dardan Sandiego said:
Doesn't this just mean that if there's new hardware releasing in 2022/23, it's going to be firmly part of the Switch family? Dane seems to exist either way, we just don't know if it will actually be used and what the product will be named.
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Exactly. What this suggests is that Dane will indeed be branded some kind of Switch, and probably not a "next gen" Switch as people have been discussing lately.

I've been saying it for a while, but Nintendo never does simple "2" consoles. A lot of people seemed to think Switch 2 was guaranteed to happen but it never made sense to me. They're going to want to try out a new concept for a true successor.
Kano said:
At the moment it means that if anything releases in the near future, say 2023, it'll be integrated into the current Switch hardware/family and won't be a successor, like Lite and OLED. The actual successor is still in concept phase and doesn't seem like it's releasing anytime soon.

And it also strongly suggests that nothing is releasing next year as Nintendo focuses on the OLED.
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Eh, I agree with the idea that the successor is far off because they specifically said it's still in the concept phase. But them saying next year will focus on the OLED means literally nothing when it comes to whether or not they have plans for new hardware.

They don't even imply that there won't be new hardware, all they say is that the OLED model will help them achieve growth which is absolutely true and entirely irrelevant in terms of other hardware plans.
 
MisterSpo said:
Everybody else having a mid-life crisis and Switch spending mid-life thriving.


Certainly the most significant statement they've made on a successor system for a while. Doesn't rule out a more powerful iterative device, though.
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Mid-life product for mid-life creatures indeed :p makes me wonder how the average age is spread out for the current userbase.

... I notice I am getting slighly more excited about Nintendo, for a while it felt like they were just re-releasing everything and leaning backwards and selling on our nostalgia alone plus the occasional big hitter. But it feels like they have to do more right now to keep the momentum going and they sure sound confident if they still aim for growth in the current climate which is shortages + no real Switch upgrade.

So, I wonder how they will entice me, - a 31 old average casual looking for new games and experiences and not caring about graphics that much - to buy their OLED. I'm far from convinced.
 
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storres said:
Do people still see the hybrid nature of the Switch as a gimmick?
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They honestly shouldn't imo. The likelihood of the next generation platform not being of hybrid nature is pretty slim. Nintendo wouldn't split their development pipeline in two after successfully establishing a process for the Switch.
 
Skittzo said:
Eh, I agree with the idea that the successor is far off because they specifically said it's still in the concept phase. But them saying next year will focus on the OLED means literally nothing when it comes to whether or not they have plans for new hardware.

They don't even imply that there won't be new hardware, all they say is that the OLED model will help them achieve growth which is absolutely true and entirely irrelevant in terms of other hardware plans.
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The fact that it doesnt mention the introduction of any more hardware initiative but centralize their entire 2022 strategy on 1. the OLED and 2. their robust line-up of games planned for next year, strongly indicates that this is how they intend to tackle 2022. That's their strategy. Releasing another hardware would be a significant element of their plans that they arent even slightly hinting at or including.

The fact that OLED is their main plan to achieve a sixth year of growth all but indicates that this is the hardware they will push for all of next year. It wouldnt make sense with this strategy to have yet another hardware next year.
 
Eh, I don't think we can necessarily take all your points for granted based off what's detailed here.

2022 focusing on the OLED is a lot like a Direct focusing on games for the current year. Yeah, it's possible there might not be anything beyond that, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion.

Even then, most sources indicate new hardware isn't likely to release until the end of the year at earliest, which would leave most of the year for OLED.

Beyond that, yeah, it's in concept phase, undecided upon, and still being discussed. If the chip itself hasn't been taped out yet, this is inherently true. The hardware will be in concept phase until it hits production or aspects can otherwise not be further altered. This doesn't mean near as much as the weight being given it.

In all, this doesn't look too contradict what most people discussing prospective new hardware here are expecting, and we're reading a whole lot into the statements in order to reach these conclusions here.
 
If Dane is not a successor, I can’t imagine a world where they don’t release Dane and BOTW2 at the same time.
 
My guess Nintendo wants to figure out a way to have a 2-screen Switch as a successor so they can port DS/3DS games. It's gonna take some time to figure that out.
 
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Supreme Overlord said:
2022 focusing on the OLED is a lot like a Direct focusing on games for the current year. Yeah, it's possible there might not be anything beyond that, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion.
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The phrasing of a Tweet is very different from sharing their business strategy with shareholders. If there were new hardware this year, it would be reflected in their business strategy, even if subtly. The fact that they don't even allude to "expanding the Nintendo Switch family of devices" or something to that effect is very telling
 
Kano said:
The fact that it doesnt mention the introduction of any more hardware initiative but centralize their entire 2022 strategy on 1. the OLED and 2. their robust line-up of games planned for next year, strongly indicates that this is how they intend to tackle 2022. That's their strategy. Releasing another hardware would be a significant element of their plans that they arent even slightly hinting at or including.

The fact that OLED is their main plan to achieve a sixth year of growth all but indicates that this is the hardware they will push for all of next year. It wouldnt make sense with this strategy to have yet another hardware next year.
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You're reading way too much into that one slide. There's nothing even in that slide saying the OLED model is the main focus of 2022 like you're claiming. Literally all it says is "With the Nintendo Switch lineup and its new addition, Nintendo Switch- OLED model, we will aim for a sixth year of growth"

Nothing from that statement implies the OLED model is their main driver for growth. Rather, the software being mentioned first signals to me that's their main driver.

And even if you could read it as them saying the OLED model would be their main growth driver for 2022, nothing about that idea remotely contradicts the idea of new hardware in 2022. I'm not saying we'll definitely get new hardware or anything, but your reasoning for coming to the conclusion that there will not be is extremely shaky.

Raccoon said:
The phrasing of a Tweet is very different from sharing their business strategy with shareholders. If there were new hardware this year, it would be reflected in their business strategy, even if subtly. The fact that they don't even allude to "expanding the Nintendo Switch family of devices" or something to that effect is very telling
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Huh? Why on earth would they mention publicly that they plan to expand the Switch family in 2022 when they literally just released a new Switch model not a month ago? That makes no sense.


You guys are reading an awful lot into a fairly innocuous statement on strategy for the next year. There is absolutely nothing so far indicating they won't launch new hardware in 2022, especially not the mention of the new OLED model as a growth driver. Obviously there's nothing (official) indicating that they will launch new hardware in 2022 either, but you really can't take anything said here to mean they don't plan to.
 
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